Parsing The GOP's Sotomayor Vote

Pres. Obama said today that he was "very happy" with the 68-31 margin by which Sonia Sotomayor was confirmed to the SCOTUS. Nine GOPers broke to join a unanimous Dem conference -- minus the ailing Ted Kennedy (D-MA) -- to support the nominee.

But according to a CNN/ORG poll released yesterday, only 27% of GOPers said the Senate should confirm Sotomayor, while 58% of GOPers polled opposed the nomination. And just 22.5% of Senate GOPers eventually voted to confirm her.

How bipartisan was the vote? A closer look at which senators voted yes or no reveals that most who are seeking re-election or election to another office voted against Sotomayor's nomination -- among other interesting facts.

Their Primary Concerns

Of the GOP senators standing for re-election next year, all 12 voted against Sotomayor. Sens. Bob Bennett (UT) and John McCain (R-AZ) are facing primary challenges from conservative rivals. Although they have no declared challengers, Sens. Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and David Vitter (R-LA) may wish to preemptively discourage any potential primary opponents.

You Get A SCOTUS Vote And A Gold Watch

Of the seven GOPers likely to retire between now and '10, four -- Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martínez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) -- voted yes. Retiring Sens. Sam Brownback (R-KS), Jim Bunning (R-KY) and Kay Bailey Hutchison voted no. Brownback and Hutchison intend to run for GOV in their respective states.

In other words, four of the nine GOP senators who voted yes will be retiring in '10.

I Don't Have A Vote, But If I Did...

The statements of GOP candidates running for GOV or SEN were more mixed. NJ GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) announced he would vote to confirm Sotomayor. So did ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who is vying for Sen. Arlen Specter's (D-PA) seat. But ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT), challenging Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), said he would vote against her.

Both FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and ex-FL state House Speaker Marco Rubio -- seeking to replace Martínez -- both said they'd vote no. So did KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), who is running to replace Bunning.

Road To 1600

Sens. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and John Thune (R-SD), mentioned as possible WH '12 candidates, both voted no.

Outside the Senate, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) issued statements critical of Sotomayor's nomination on the day it was made. Romney called Sotomayor's nomination "troubling," and Huckabee said she "comes from the far left."

Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich infamously tweeted that Sotomayor was "racist" and should withdraw her nomination, before walking back the "racist" charge.

LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), notably, declined to announce how they would vote.

Gang-ing Up

Of the four GOPers left in the Senate from the "Gang of 14" -- the bipartisan group formed four years ago to prevent the so-called "nuclear option" from being invoked regarding Bush admin. judicial nominees -- three voted for Sotomayor: Sens. Susan Collins (ME), Lindsey Graham (SC) and Olympia Snowe (ME). Only McCain voted no.

Breyer Patch

The only remaining senators (of nine total) to vote against Justice Stephen Breyer, Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN), voted for Sotomayor. The three senators who voted against Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg are no longer in office.

Senators who voted for Breyer and Ginsburg but against Sotomayor included Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, Sens. Thad Cochran (R-MS), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Bennett, Hutchison and McCain.

Grassley and Hatch, in their long tenures both in the Senate and on the Judiciary Cmte, had never voted against a SCOTUS nominee.

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) holds the distinction of being the only senator to vote against both Robert Bork and Sonia Sotomayor. Shelby, a Dem then, converted to the GOP seven years after the Bork vote.

Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), while not a GOPer, voted against Thurgood Marshall in '67 but voted for Sotomayor today.

Wise Latino(a)s

According to the '08 exit polls, Hispanics made up 9% of the nat'l electorate. In states represented by GOPers whose '08 electorate was more than 9% Hispanic -- AZ (16%), FL (14%), NV (15%) and TX (20%) -- only one out of six sens. (the retiring Martínez) voted for Sotomayor. Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), Senate Min. Whip Jon Kyl, NRSC Chair John Cornyn, Hutchison and McCain all voted against.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)