What's The Matter With IL?
Given the controversy and drama that's plagued the process of trying to fill the IL SEN seat once held by President Barack Obama, it seemed reasonable to expect a contentious primary for the Dem Senate nomination. But it looks as if it will be a fairly unexciting affair.
After months of deliberating, businessman Chris Kennedy (D), a nephew of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), announced this week that he was forgoing a run to spend more time with his family. Kennedy's announcement was preceded by the 7/8 decision by IL AG Lisa Madigan (D), seen by many Dems as the strongest candidate for the party, to forgo a run. This leaves just two Democrats to vie for the nomination; Treas. Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League Pres. Cheryle Jackson. One or two other possible candidates have been mentioned. But with nomination petitions, requiring 5K-10K signatures, due by 11/2 any other challenger needs to start moving soon.
Many expect the primary to be a Giannoulias coronation. He formally entered the race 7/26, but had been raising significant amounts of money and building a campaign apparatus long before. As of 6/30, he had $1.6M in the bank. Jackson, meanwhile, only formally declared last week, although she too had been testing the waters before deciding to get in.
Many are waiting to see if Jackson can put together a credible campaign. She has yet to receive any high-profile endorsements, whereas Giannoulias has announced the support of Reps. Phil Hare (D-IL 17) and Bill Foster (D-IL 14), among others. But that could change. "We've met with Cheryle on more than one occasion," says Jonathan Parker, EMILY'S List's political director. "We think she is an impressive candidate." Still, EMILY's List is holding off from making an endorsement. Parker says the group just isn't "ready," but adds, "We're keeping a very close eye on this race."
Jackson would likely benefit from a crowded primary where she, as the only woman and only African-American, would have a demographic advantage. In '92, Carol Moseley-Braun , then an unknown Cook Co. Recorder of Deeds, was the only woman and only African-American in a 3-way race for the Democratic nod. Braun also benefited from the fact that one of the wealthy men running was spending most of his time - and directing his fire - at then-Sen. Alan Dixon (D). Braun won 38% of the vote.
To beat Giannoulias one-on-one, the unknown and untested Jackson would need to put together a lot of money, very quickly. If she doesn't, the Dem primary may be surprisingly straightforward.
[SEAN J. MILLER]