September 2009

Almost a month ago, MA AG Martha Coakley (D) started her MA SEN bid with an empty campaign spending account. Today, in an interview with On Call, she said she is "confident" that she will exceed her goal of raising $1M.

Coakley is holding a series of events today along with EMILY's List Pres. Ellen Malcolm seeking to draw on the support -- and fundraising dollars -- of MA's women voters. According to Malcolm, Coakley took in $150K+ from 225 supporters at a luncheon today, and the two aim to raise more at another event slated for this p.m.

"Believe me, we are still counting and will be," Coakley told On Call in a phone interview after today's luncheon. "All I can say is that we have a goal of a million dollars by today, which is the end of the reporting period, and I am confident that we will well exceed that. We'll make that known as soon as we know the final figures."

"People believe that I am the best candidate," Coakley added. "Now it's just a question of raising the money."

Rep. Michael Capuano 's (D-08) camp said yesterday that they hope to bring in an extra $250K by tonight's deadline to add to the $1.2M he had in his warchest.

Malcolm: "We'll see when these numbers come out after September 30th, but if she gets anywhere near this $1.2 million that Capuano started with, I think it's like a gong in this race."

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the earthquake and tsunami in the South Pacific.

Pols and pundits weighed in on the public option cmte vote 9/29 p.m.

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), on what it means that it "didn't survive" the cmte: "It would have been better if it had passed. And certainly, it didn't. But we picked up votes we didn't expect, particularly on my amendment, Jay [Rockefeller] and I working as a team. ... This is an uphill fight. We knew it. But a month ago, the public option was dead. Now, we're alive and fighting. Even two of the three senators who spoke out against it said they were interested in it, and we're going to keep working at it until we get this done. ... I think we have a pretty good chance" ("Rachel Maddow Show," MSNBC, 9/29).

CNN's Bash: "Democratic leadership sources ... say that what you saw today, that is a Democratic priority, a public option, defeated with help of conservative Democrats, that it's really a prelude to what they believe will happen on the Senate floor. But if you listen to Democratic supporters who are so passionate about this, it sounded like they were incredibly positive. They were trying to put a very positive spin on the outcome of today" ("Situation Room," 9/29).

Bash, on whether the public option got a "significant setback": "No question about it" ("Situation Room," 9/29).

After the jump, more public option reax and Ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) is interviewed.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

NY Gov. David Paterson (D) announced this afternoon that the Upstate NY special election to replace Army Sec. John McHugh will be held 11/3, as expected. That date will also feature two GOV elections in both VA and NJ, and the three races, combined, will give us an idea as to how the environment for the '10 midterms is shaping up.

But while GOPers are enjoying somewhat of a resurgence recently, a loss in the NY-23 special could set the GOP's House efforts back. Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R) has had a few bad weeks, as accountant Doug Hoffman (C) has splintered the GOP base, and has been endorsed by the Club for Growth and the American Conservative Union, among other groups. While the GOP argues with itself, atty Bill Owens (D) has spent his time -- and money -- on TV ads introducing himself to voters.

But now that the race is fully engaged, the next 30+ days should be intense. Game on.

(TIM SAHD)

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's push for the Chicago '16 Olympic bid. "Evening News" led with the Iranian missile tests. "Nightly News" led with swine flu.

Pols and pundits made the rounds to discuss Obama's trip to Copehnhagen, Denmark to make the case for Chicago's '16 Olympic bid before the IOC 9/28 p.m.

WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett, on whether Obama risks "using some of his political capital" if Chicago doesn't get the bid: "Oh, no. Absolutely not. ... The president is a competitive spirit. He's very interested in promoting Chicago and bringing the Olympics and Paralympics to our shores. He's not thinking about the political calculus. He's thinking about what's best for the American people. And having the most important sporting event in the world on our shores again would be terrific, not just for Chicago, but for our whole country" ("Situation Room," CNN, 9/28).

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), on neglecting the McChrystal report in lieu of the Olympics: "It's [McChrystal report] going to sit on a shelf until the president reaches the decision on a new strategy. But then this week, at the end of the week, he's willing to go to Copenhagen to make the pitch for the Olympics in Chicago. So people are wondering and believing that this president has his priorities mixed up" ("On the Record," FNC, 9/28).

New York Daily News' DeFrank: "This is classic damage control. I think if the president were not to go and it doesn't become Chicago, then I think he might take a little political heat" ("Hardball, MSNBC, 9/28).

After the jump, more on Obama's Copenhagen trip and Afghanistan.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett is the latest WH surrogate to come to the aid of Gov. Jon Corzine (D). She attended a Dem women's breakfast funder in NYC and a lunch with some clergy in East Rutherford 9/24, as poll after poll has shown the gov. trailing ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R). Jarrett's visit is the latest indication of growing involvment by Pres. Obama's political machine in the NJ GOV race and it invites the question, what will the 11/3 vote signal to nat'l observers?

Not much, say the candidates, because this is a local race about local issues. "I think it will help [Obama] if we win here," said Corzine, who recently erected billboards in Trenton featuring a photo of him and the pres. topped with the slogan "KEEP IT GOING."

"But I don't think it's a statement about him," the gov. added.

Christie, who has run TV ads featuring Obama supporters, made a similar assessment. "The people of New Jersey will decide this race based on the issues that Jon Corzine and I are discussing -- his record, my record, a look to the future," he told "Politics Daily." "I don't think the national Democrats or national Republicans have much to do with it."

Not that the Dems -- and, to be fair, the GOPers -- haven't made an effort. Before Jarrett arrived NJ had seen a parade of appearances by VP Biden and almost a quarter of the Cabinet, even Obama himself. The coordination didn't end at scheduling large draw appearances -- the Corzine camp has also taken on some of Obama's hired guns. A Corzine spokesperson confirmed to On Call that the campaign recently hired Benenson Strategy Group -- it's fourth polling firm -- which worked with the Obama camp during WH '08.

The New York Times reported the WH has operatives "on the ground" in NJ and is now screening "every TV ad" the campaign puts out. But Corzine aides say this is being done simply with campaign material that features Obama, which so far has included a couple TV ads, several mailers, some autocalls and the billboards. Meanwhile, a WH official said on background that some Obama senior staff had been on the ground for events but no one's moved to Trenton for the duration.

[SEAN J. MILLER]

Ex-DNC Chair Paul Kirk, a longtime confidant and aide to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), became the Senate's newest member this p.m., filling the vacancy created by Kennedy's passing and giving Dems a crucial 60th vote as they continue their push for a nat'l health care overhaul.

Kirk was sworn in by VP Biden in a ceremony on the Senate floor, one day after MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D) named him as his choice to fill Kennedy's seat until MA voters elect a new sen. in Jan. '10. Kirk was accompanied by his wife and several members the late sen.'s family, including Kennedy's widow, Vicki Reggie Kennedy, and sons Ted Kennedy Jr. and Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI).

Speaking to reporters after the swearing-in, Kirk said he felt an "enormous sense of humility" in being designated to fill Kennedy's seat, as well as a sense of pride to be encouraged by members of the late sen.'s family.

"I want to be able to live up to all those honors and all those expectations," Kirk said. "That's my hope."

But Kirk downplayed expectations when asked about his own hopes -- in particular, his outlook on the role he'll play in achieving Kennedy's signature goal of health care reform.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Bill Clinton, NY Gov. David Paterson (D), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA).

Face the Nation hosts Sec/State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

This Week hosts Sec/Def Robert Gates and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). The roundtable features Washington Post's Bob Woodward, New York Times' Tom Friedman, ABC's Martha Raddatz and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Kit Bond (R-MO) and VA GOV nominee Bob McDonnell (R).

State of the Union hosts Sec/Def Robert Gates, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), GOP strategist Mary Matalin and Dem strategist James Carville (see after the jump for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the NYC terrorist suspect arrest.

MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D) played "Hardball" 9/24 p.m.

Patrick, on a scale of 1-10, on the difficulty of choosing the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D) successor: "I give it probably an eight. It's a headache, in a way, politically that I don't need. But I think when you think about the greater good, the interests of the commonwealth of Massachusetts and the people's interests that are being voted on in the next few weeks and months in the Congress, we need that second voice to help John Kerry and to have a full complement of votes on those issues."

More Patrick: "I think when you think about stewardship as being the main driving idea here, knowing that the people get to go in a special election and choose their own senator in January of next year, stewardship was really what I was looking for. And Paul Kirk is a perfect steward."

After the jump, more Patrick and reviews of his pick, things get hot in the Sen. Finance Cmte, and the TX Gov. race.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

MA's new sen., ex-DNC Chair Paul Kirk, will be sworn in at 3:15 p.m. tomorrow, according to Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's office.

Kirk was appointed by MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D) this a.m. to fill the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D). A longtime Kennedy confidant and onetime staffer, Kirk will serve as a caretaker for the seat until MA voters elect a successor in the 1/19 special.

One candidate seeking to win the seat in the special is in DC today for a separate swearing-in. Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) will attend the swearing-in of Chief Performance Officer/Dep. Dir. for Mgmt Jeff Zients at 4:30 today in the Old Exec. Office Building, according to Pagliuca's campaign.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

"World News" with Pres. Obama's UN speech. "Evening News," led with Obama's UN speech and featured an interview with Iranian Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. "Nightly News" led with Obama's UN speech and featured an interview with British PM Gordon Brown.

Talk about Obama's UN address dominated the cable talk 9/23 p.m.

Liz Cheney: "I was concerned about a number of places in the president's speech where he really sort of seemed to take shots at the previous administration, but also talk about things like nuclear disarmament, in the sense that, if the United States disarms, somehow, it will encourage the Iranians, the North Koreans to disarm. I do think that there was some naivete in this speech. And I think there was a lot of sort of places where he could have done more to talk about freedom, he could have done more to talk about democracy. Those words seemed to me to be missing from the speech" ("Situation Room," CNN, 9/23).

Weekly Standard's Hayes: "Think about the last sentence that we heard in the introduction there, 'When you question the cause or character of my country, think about the concrete actions of the last nine months.' Basically what President Obama is saying there, think about me when you think about the goodness or greatness of the United States" ("Special Report," FNC, 9/23).

CNN's Zakaria: "I think Obama struck exactly the right tone, which is to say, look, we have changed policy on a number of areas, and these were issues which the rest of the world thought the United States was dragging its feet on, not signing U.N. treaties, not being part of various international processes and protocols. Now you don't have the United States to blame anymore. So, are you going to now cooperate? It's exactly the right message" ("Campbell Brown," 9/23).

After the jump, more UN speech reax, the continued health care debate and ex-Rep. James Traficant unleashed.

"Fat candidates, are they electable?" the Newark Star-Ledger asked in a story that ran in June. This huge question won't be answered in NJ until 11/3, when voters will have to decide if the campaign's "whisper issue" -- ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie's (R) weight -- tilts the scale towards Gov. Jon Corzine (D).

In his defense, Christie describes himself as "husky" and, without putting an exact number on it, says his weight fluctuates 30 pounds. Inevitably, he struggles to keep it down. "I work with a trainer," Christie said this summer, "and most days my wife packs me a lunch -- fruit, nuts, healthy snacks."

Even so, a new Corzine attack ad takes a not so subtle stab at Christie's weight. The spot recalls his past driving mishaps in which, the announcer says, Christie "threw his weight around" to get out of traffic tickets. It ends with unflattering B-roll of Christie staggering out of an SUV. Driving the point home, the accompanying release says the ad highlights Christie's "history of using the full weight of his office to ensure preferential treatment for himself." If Corzine's poll numbers stay where they are, this may be a sign of things to come.

Here's the video:

"World News" and "Evening News" led with floods in the South. "Nightly News" led with Pres. Obama's global warming policy.

Pols talked Afghanistan on TV 9/22 p.m.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), on ex-Sec/State Condoleezza Rice's statements: "I mean there is no doubt that al Qaeda would reestablish a base. Taliban, who by the way is not popular, would return and parts of Afghanistan would be under Taliban control. At least parts. I think it's very obvious. If you don't believe that you are ignoring lessons of history" ("Hannity," FNC, 9/22).

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), on whether he'd support Obama if he decided to send more troops to Afghanistan: "If it is ... with clear conditions of an exit strategy that is focused not on nation-building, but is focused only on about 30 percent of the 20,000 Taliban that have been al Qaeda-ized and making them irrelevant. That is a requirement for the increase in troops. If he does that, I will do it, because we rely upon the Afghanistan military to build itself up after we let this spiral so far down there" ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 9/22).

Ex-Sen. George Allen (R-VA): "It's not going to be a Jeffersonian democracy but a stable country that is not a haven for terrorists who want to kill as many Americans as possible, as well as destabilize Pakistan. And if you destabilize Pakistan it also could have an impact on India. So this is much bigger than the tactics of whether or not the government takes over health insurance" ("Hannity," FNC, 9/22).

After the jump, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu denies namecalling and health care talk.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

By a 24-16 vote, the MA Senate passed a bill this p.m. that would give Gov. Deval Patrick (D) the power to appoint an interim replacement to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D) Senate seat, clearing the way for a successor to be named as early as this week.

"The Governor appreciates the support voiced in the Senate today and the action taken by the House last week to ensure Massachusetts has full representation in the Congress," Patrick press sec. Kyle Sullivan said in a statement. "The Governor looks forward to final action on the bill."

The legislation easily passed the state House last week by a 95-to-58 vote, but was delayed twice in the state Senate by GOPers, who charged that Dems were playing politics in an effort to regain their 60-seat majority in Washington.

Both houses must now vote for the bill's enactment, largely a formality, before it reaches Patrick's desk. Under MA law, Patrick -- who is still recovering from hip surgery at his vacation home in the Berkshires -- can then file a letter with the MA sec/state declaring the appointment of an interim sen., which would be effective immediately.

After a week of woeful poll numbers, a warning from the WH about a run for a full term in '08, and an awkward man-hug with Pres. Obama, NY Gov. David Paterson (D) finally received some good news early today ... before a new poll brought him back to reality.

First, the good news: In a surprising, narrowly-decided ruling, the state's highest court has upheld Paterson's authority to appoint an LG to replace himself and insulate his Dem admin. from a possible GOP takeover of the state Senate.

After Paterson appointed ex-MTA Chair Dick Ravitch (D) to the post in July, state Senate Min. Leader Dean Skelos (R) asked the courts to block Ravitch from assuming the job. The state Supreme Court in Nassau Co. and its appellate division both rebuked Paterson, holding that the state constitution does not allow the gov. to appoint an LG.

The state Court of Appeals had been expected to concur with the lower courts, but in an early-morning, 4-3 decision, the court ruled that Paterson acted within the framework of the state Constitution.

But just about an hour after the ruling, Siena College released a new poll showing Paterson's favorable ratings dropping close to the lowest of his short time in office.

Just 29% of NY residents view Paterson favorable, while 59% view him unfavorably. Asked if they would vote to elect him to a full term in '10, 14% of respondents said they would, to 71% who said they would prefer someone else.

Paterson would trail AG Andrew Cuomo in a potential Dem primary, 66-20%, and he would trail ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) in a general-election matchup, 52-35%.

Siena surveyed 792 RVs between 9/13-17, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

UPDATE (1:45 p.m.): According to the New York Times, Paterson, "looking upbeat, chided those who had claimed the administration would never win the legal battle" over the Ravitch appointment.

"You don't give up," Paterson said. "You don't give up just because people tell you what they think is going to happen. You don't give up because people tell you who's running and who's not before they ever announce to do it. You don't give up because you're unpopular when you feel you've made the right decisions."

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

"World News" led with Gen. Stanley McChrystal's assessment. "Evening News" led with the terror suspect arrest. "Nightly News" led with swine flu.

Pres. Obama's TV blitz continued 9/21 p.m. with his first appearance on the "Late Show" as POTUS.

Obama, on the economy: "It is improving. We've seen some stabilizing. The financial markets aren't in meltdown. You've actually seen an uptick in investment, [and] even manufacturing, which had been really getting battered, has started to improve. But we are not out of the woods yet. Things are still fragile. ... The biggest problem that we have right now is that employment lags."

Obama, on whether Jimmy Carter is "on to something" when he says people's disrespect is rooted in "racism": "First of all, I think it's important to realize that I was actually black before the election."

Obama: "One of the things you sign up for in politics is, folks yell at you."

After the jump, More Obama on Letterman, Sec/State Hillary Clinton is interviewed, and ex-House Maj. Leader Tom Delay (R) dances

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Pres. Obama is expected to raise $500K at his first fundraiser for the DGA, to be held Oct. 1st at the St. Regis Hotel in DC. While the DGA has spent and unprecedented amount of money in NJ and VA, and Obama has campaigned with both of the '09 GOV candidates, Obama's upcoming DGA fundraiser seems geared more toward 2010 than pushing Corzine and Deeds over the finish line.

The govs who are scheduled to attend the $5K maximum-a-plate fundraiser with Obama include MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer, MD Gov. Martin O'Malley, DE Gov. Jack Markell, MO Gov. Jay Nixon, KS Gov. Mark Parkinson, and KY Gov. Steve Beshear

(NORA McALVANAH)

City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) was clearly looking for grassroots organizing experience when he formed his MA SEN campaign team recently. On Call has learned Khazei has hired Shaun Kelleher, an ex-DNC dep. pol dir. and ex-AFL-CIO organizer, as his field dir. Khazei's mgr. is Kelly Ward, the dir. of America Forward, a coalition of non-profits that includes City Year. And the famed Teresa Vilmain, among other things Hillary Clinton's ex-IA state dir., is the lead consultant.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

The New York Times reports today that Pres. Obama has asked NY Gov. David Paterson (D) to not run for election in '10. Paterson has suffered dismal poll ratings.

The decision to ask Mr. Paterson to step aside was proposed by political advisers to Mr. Obama, but approved by the president himself, one of the administration officials said.

"Is there concern about the situation in New York? Absolutely," the second administration official said Saturday evening. "Has that concern been conveyed to the governor? Yes."

The administration officials and the Democratic operative spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions with the governor were intended to be confidential.

The president's request was conveyed to the Mr. Paterson by Representative Gregory W. Meeks, a Queens Democrat, who has developed a strong relationship with the Obama administration, they said.

It was expected that sometime this fall, Paterson would be asked by Dems to step aside for a stronger nominee: AG Andrew Cuomo (D). Indeed, union leaders and Dem county chairs have met several times to discuss the situation. But with the specter of a top-tier GOP candidate, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuiliani (R), entering the contest, Obama decided to make the surprising move.

Interestingly, just last week, Paterson named Richard Fife, an Obama delegate to the '08 Dem Convo and Obama campaign aide, as his campaign mgr. Aides said he did so to send a strong message to Obama not to get involved in the race.

[TIM SAHD]

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who made his debut appearance at the Family Research Council's annual Values Voter Summit of social conservatives 9/18 p.m., chose to present himself as an "anti-Obama warrior" rather than a "Christian warrior."

The lame-duck gov. and RGA vice-chair -- who is working to step up his nat'l profile ahead of a potential WH '12 bid -- drew standing ovations 9/18 p.m. for his swipes at the Obama admin. and nat'l Dems. He slammed Obama on missile defense, spending and health care, calling the Dem health care plan an "absolute financial monstrosity" that will cost Americans $2T+.

"Stop spending the country into bankruptcy," he said in his remarks to the gathering of 1.8K conservatives. "Stop taxing us into oblivion. And the next time you address a group of young people, maybe you should apologize for the crushing debt you're putting on their shoulders."

Pawlenty proved that he could play hardball with members of his own party, too. "We need to make sure that we are focused on wise values, not just wisecracks," Pawlenty said, in a not-so-subtle shot at ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee's penchant for one-liners, followed by what appeared to be a quick jab at ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney: "We also need to know what our values are."

Strategically, Pawlenty faced two challenges: ratchet up his role as a leading GOP critic of the admin. while also growing his street cred among religious and social conservatives. Noticeably absent from Pawlenty's remarks was any attempt to weave in parts of his own personal religious experience -- a different approach from that of previous WH hopefuls.

While MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) list the same experience on their resumes -- GOP gov. of a liberal state -- each potential WH '12er has a different approach when talking about his time in office. That contrast was on display this weekend at the Values Voter confab where both men previewed their appeals to a slice of the GOP primary electorate

During his speech at the Omni Shoreham Hotel 9/18, Pawlenty took a decidedly different tack than Romney did during WH '08 when talking about his DFL-dominated home state. During the campaign, Romney made cracks about the dearth of GOPers in the Bay State and how liberal it was. But while he occasionally touted his accomplishments as gov., he usually tried to downplay the MA mentions as he veered to the right.

Pawlenty, in contrast, spent 9/18 harping on the progress he's made instilling GOP values in MN over the last seven years. He mentioned, as he has before, that his two brothers and two sisters are Dems, but that he's found common ground with them on a handful of conservative principles, and then he applied his breakthrough with his siblings to his governance of the state.

Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) won today's Values Voter Summit straw poll by a landslide. Huckabee claimed top stop with 170 votes while ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) effectively tied for second with a vote between them. Romney got 74, Pawlenty 73, and Palin, who didn't attend, finished with 72. Dark horse/Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) was also in contention with 71 votes, according to organizers.

It being an off-year, organizers of the Values Voter Summit had been expecting a light turnout for their annual convo this weekend in DC. But over the last three weeks -- as exchanges in the nat'l debate over health care reform and gov't spending became sharper -- registration tripled, officials said.

For a short lunchtime address by ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, it was standing room only. Romney gave the enthusiasitc crowd a 20-minute speech that one elderly attendee described as focusing on "fighting, family and our country."

"These are times that call for a strong America," Romney said, before launching into a critique of Pres. Obama's foreign and domestic policy.

But his focus wasn't all negative -- Romney singled out praise for the "millions of Americans who have stepped up in town halls and tea parties across the country." The Dems have derided these people as a "mob" of "crazies," Romney said. "I call them patriots."

"When government is trying to take over health care, buying car companies, bailing out banks, and giving half the White House staff the title of czar, we have every good reason to be alarmed and to speak our mind," Romney said. It's on account of these protests, he added, that Obama won't "get his way" on his domestic agenda.

Romney closed with a prediction: "we're about to see a comeback." It'll start with GOPers winning the VA and NJ GOV races, he said, before adding, "nothing is certain in politics."

[SEAN J. MILLER]

City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) has filed papers to form a MA SEN campaign cmte and plans to make a formal announcement of his bid next week.

Khazei, in a statement: "My wife, Vanessa, and I have been overwhelmed by the outpouring of support we've received. Thank you to the thousands of individuals who convened on facebook and to my friends and neighbors who urged me to run for Senate to give greater voice to citizens and to take action on our citizens' concerns in Washington."

Khazei is the fourth Dem to take steps toward a bid for the seat of late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D). Earlier this p.m., Rep. Michael Capuano (D-08) formally announced his candidacy in a presser at Boston's Omni Parker House. Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) announced his bid 9/17, and AG Martha Coakley (D) has been in the race since early Sep.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Pres. Obama, House Min. Leader John Boehner and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). The roundtable features Washington Post's Eugene Robinson and Politico's Roger Simon.

Face the Nation hosts Obama and New York Times' David Sanger.

This Week hosts Obama. The roundtable features Dem strategist Donna Brazile, ex-RNC Chair/ex-George W. Bush counselor Ed Gillespie, Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan, ex-Labor Sec. Robert Reich and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts ACORN CEO Bertha Lewis, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), FedEx CEO Fred Smith, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), ex-economic adviser Mark Zandi, FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot, and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Obama, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), GOP strategist Mary Matalin and Dem strategist James Carville (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" and "Evening News" led with the scrapping of the eastern European missile defense shield. "Nightly News" led with the eastern European missile defense shield scrapping and featured an interview with Iranian Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

House Min. Leader John Boehner went on "NewsHour" 9/17 p.m. to discuss the latest in health care.

Boehner, on the Baucus bill: "There clearly are some things in there that Republicans do support. But when you step back and look at this, it still has a big government takeover of our health care system, whether it's the co-ops, whether it's the mandates on individuals, the mandates on companies, the unfunded mandates on states, and still costs some $800 billion of money that we don't have."

More Boehner: "And so a step in the right direction, but Democrats and Republicans understand that we do have the best health care system in the world. It's not perfect. And we can fix the problems in the current system without throwing the whole system away and starting over with this government takeover, because at the end of the day that's what it is."

Boehner, on why a "reset" is needed: "I don't believe that any of these health plans that we've seen thus far from the Democrats in Congress can pass in any way, shape, or form."

After the jump, Boehner on the discourse, Reps. Barney Frank (D-MA) and Mike Rogers (R-MI) mix it up, and Ted Kennedy, Jr. on a Senate run.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

In the first major debate of the fall campaign in the VA GOV race on 9/17, national issues took center stage over ex-AG Bob McDonnell's (R) controversial master's thesis giving McDonnell an edge over state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D). Moderated by "Meet The Press"'s David Gregory and a panel of local journalists, the pair squared off before a couple hundred local businesspeople and a live online audience at the Capital One world headquarters in McLean, VA. The debate was sponsored by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce.

Here are the central storylines from the debate:

The Incredible Shrinking Thesis

The first question posed by Gregory was about McDonnell's thesis. The "Meet The Press" host asked McDonnell to explain specifically how his views have changed since it was published. The question was a hard-hitting one, but McDonnell deftly evaded it with a stories of how proud he was of his "working mom" wife and daughter Amy, whose service in Iraq he said made her "the ultimate working woman."

In short, McDonnell has his talking points down about the thesis. The same can't be said of Deeds, who actually appeared to hit a road block when reeling off his talking points on the document. Deeds definitely tried to keep the story alive, returning to the thesis again and again during the debate, and even scored some some points with it at one point after McDonnell attacked Deeds' union support. "We know now that he doesn't support working women," Deeds said. "But what does he have against working families?"

Overall, though, it was clear that McDonnell was confident in his line of defense. And that was bad news for Deeds, who kept poking at McDonnell with cultural issues, but wasn't able to score more than a glancing blow.

Face The Nation

National issues were front and center at the debate, with moderators grilling both candidates about cap and trade, health care, the environment and what do to with Guantanamo Bay detainees. As is probably no surprise, McDonnell was much more comfortable taking on these topics than Deeds was. The GOPer slammed WH policies over and over, and waited as Deeds scrambled to navigate a treacherous path between standing by a president that's popular with Dems and standing apart from policies that are unpopular with independents and moderates.

A key moment came during a discussion of Pres. Obama. Gregory asked Deeds, "are you an Obama Democrat?"

Deeds told a story of his early years in VA politics ex-Sen. Chuck Robb (D) and ex-Gov. Douglas Wilder were "feuding."

"Everyone would ask me, 'are you a Wilder Democrat or a Robb Democrat?'" Deeds said. "To deflect them, I'd say 'I'm a Creigh Deeds Democrat.'"

Pressed on the question, Deeds eventually said, "I like [Obama] personally. He's smart and innovative. I'm a Creigh Deeds Democrat."

Extremist Is In The Eyes Of The Beholder

It is currently illegal for a same sex couple to jointly adopt a child in VA. Asked if the law should be changed, both men agreed that the state's current statutes -- which allow a single parents to adopt regardless of sexual orientation (but not without the approval of the gov't) -- was enough. Deeds seemed eager to drop the topic though, saying "I leave it up to the decision of the courts in every situation" before changing the subject to right to work laws.

McDonnell was more comfortable talking about the issue, firmly stating that VA law says it is best that a heterosexual couple is "the best" environment for a child, but also agreeing that the law allowing for single parent adoptions was a good one. "I think Creigh and I agree on this one," he said quickly.

The exchange shows the limits of the "culture warrior" line of attack Deeds has been using against McDonnell. Though Deeds was not as adamant about the reasons for VA's gay adoption ban as McDonnell was, he wasn't willing to alienate more conservative voters with an overtly pro-gay rights stand.

The Plan Is The Plan

Transportation, not surprisingly, was a prominent part of the debate.

As he has throughout the summer, McDonnell pushed his detailed transportation plan. Deeds, on the other hand, focused on a promise to build the bipartisan coalition necessary to finally get transportation done. Two different approaches, one result -- neither man scored solid hits on transportation. McDonnell was awkward in explaining the financial details of his plan, while Deeds focused on the things he wouldn't do, like taking money from the general fund or education.

McDonnell again promised not to raise any taxes. Deeds made the same promise -- but also said he was open to new funding streams that included drivers paying for the roads they use.

Parting Shots

For a debate billed by the Deeds camp on a 9/16 press call as key for their candidate, today's clash failed to deliver. The arguments fell along familiar rhetorical lines, and neither man was able to pull away. McDonnell emerged largely unscathed, which in Dem leaning NoVa is a victory.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

A new poll released last night from WHDH-TV in Boston and Suffolk Univ.'s Political Research Center taps AG Martha Coakley (D) as the frontrunner to win a special election and serve out the remainder of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D) term. But with candidates dropping in and out over the last week, the still-developing primary field presents a challenge to pollsters and others looking to poll numbers to provide an accurate picture of the nascent race.

According to the poll, Coakley would have the support of 47% of Dem primary voters. Rep. Mike Capuano (D-08) is second, with 9%. The poll, conducted 9/12-15, surveyed 500 RVs, of which 288 IDed themselves as Dems or indies who would be likely to vote in the Dem primary.

But with Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-09) pulling out of the race on 9/15, and Celtics managing partner Stephen Pagliuca (D) announcing his candidacy today, the field around Coakley and Capuano is still in flux.

The House followed the Senate's lead today and passed a measure to defund ACORN, the controversial community organizing group. Under the amendment introduced to the Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act by Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA 49), "no Federal funds in any other form may be provided to the organization." It's a harsher restriction than what passed in the Senate, which only eliminated ACORN's HUD funding.

The House measure was approved with 345 bi-partisan votes in favor -- 75 Dems voted against it. "The battle, however, to deny ACORN federal funding is not over until the President signs the bill into law," Issa said in a statement.

Whatever happens next, GOPers seem to have found an issue that gives their base a "jolt of energy," GOP pollster Glen Bolger told On Call. "This is going to further stoke their frustrations with government." Bolger said he isn't sure if the ACORN issue will resonate with Indies or conservative Dems, but it may help create the impression of "government run amok" under the Obama admin.

"World News" and "Evening News" led with Sen. Max Baucus' (D-MT) health care bill. "Nightly News" led with reaction to Jimmy Carter's comments on race.

RNC chair Michael Steele made the TV rounds 9/16 p.m. to react to Carter's comments.

Steele, on his response to Carter's comments: "I'll make it as short and sweet and simple as possible: you're just dead wrong. I think the president's interpretation of what racism is is not a reflection of what this is about. And the reality of it is, this is about policy [and] differences in how we approach solving some of these issues that we're confronting on health care and the economy."

More Steele: "When you go down this road and you start just willy-nilly, as I believe President Carter has, throwing race out there, you diminish real instances of ... racism that needs to be addressed" ("Situation Room," CNN, 9/16).

After the jump, more Steele, reax to the Baucus bill, all things ACORN.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) plans to make his MA SEN bid official in a 3 p.m. announcement tomorrow at the Celtics' TD Garden, according to campaign advisers.

Pagliuca, who is also a managing partner of Bain Capital with an estimated personal wealth of $400M, has the resources to be a major contender in what will be an abbreviated three-month Dem primary to fill the seat of late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D). His entry into the field comes during a week marked more by announcements of who's out than who's in -- Reps. Stephen Lynch (D-09), Rep. Ed Markey (D-07) and ex-WH CoS Andy Card (R) have all opted out in recent days. Those developments were not a factor for Pagliuca, an adviser said, adding that Pagliuca made the decision to enter the race 9/15 p.m. after talking with his family.

Pagliuca has the benefit of being able to self-fund his bid -- a distinct advantage over AG Martha Coakley (D), the frontrunner and thus far the only declared Dem, who started off the race with the challenge of filling an empty federal spending account. But Coakley has the advantage in name ID -- she is the only candidate running who has been elected to statewide office. Rep. Michael Capuano (D-08), the only remaining member of MA's cong. delegation reported to be eyeing a bid, plans to announce his candidacy 9/18.

Asked about Coakley's strength among women voters, a Pagliuca adviser said that the race is still taking shape. "I don't expect that gender is going to be the deciding force," the adviser said, adding that "vision, experience and values are going to be the real factors that decide this election."

Pagliuca also faces the question of his Dem bona fides. He supported Bain founder/ex-Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) '94 bid against Kennedy and contributed to ex-Gov. William Weld's (R) '96 SEN campaign. Pagliuca's wife, Judy, served as treas. of Romney's SEN campaign cmte. and was later appointed by Romney to the MA Turnpike Authority board of dirs.

Pagliuca has explained his support of Romney as a matter of personal loyalty. But in a preview of the attacks Pagliuca is likely to face from fellow Dems, a Lynch aide described Pagliuca to On Call yesterday as a candidate who "has a lot of money" but thought that Romney "would be a better senator" than Kennedy.

"I'm sure that questions will be raised," a Pagliuca adviser said in response. "But any doubts about whether or not he's truly a Democrat are going to be answered affirmatively when people take a look at the positions he takes on the issues."

The adviser declined to give a dollar figure for how much money Pagliuca is likely to spend on a bid, saying only that the Celtics honcho is "going to invest enough money to educate and inform Massachusetts voters about his background, his values, and his vision for the future."

Another potential hurdle for Pagliuca is his interest in purchasing the Boston Globe. As part of a group including philanthropist/ex-ad mogul Jack Connors, Pagliuca submitted a bid to purchase the newspaper this summer. But that purchase, according to an adviser, is a venture that Pagliuca will no longer pursue.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

"World News" led with the rise in consumer spending. "Evening News" led with the swine flu vaccine. "Nightly News" led with the swine flu vaccine and featured a taped interview with Jimmy Carter.

In that interview with "Nightly News" 9/15 p.m., Carter discussed what he believes to be the motives behind some of the protests against Pres. Obama.

Carter: "An overwhelming portion of the intensely demonstrated animosity toward President Barack Obama is based on the fact he is a black man, that he's African-American. I've lived in the South, and I've seen the South come a long way. I've seen the rest of the country that shared the South's attitude toward minority groups at that time, particularly African Americans."

More Carter: "That racism in connection still exists, and I think has bubbled up to the surface because of a belief among many white people, not just in the South but around the country, that African-Americans are not qualified to lead this great country. It's an abominable circumstance and grieves me and concerns me very deeply" (NBC, 9/15).

After the jump, reax to Carter, the House rebuke on Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), and Obama's Pittsburgh address

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) trails ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) by five points in the first live-interview, non-partisan poll taken in the race since the news of McDonnell's controversial grad-school thesis broke last month.

The survey, from Clarus Research Group, shows McDonnell leading Deeds, 42%-37%, with 20% of voters undecided. It is Clarus' first poll of the campaign, so there is no trend data for comparison. McDonnell's average lead in other publicly-released polls conducted during Aug. was greater than 10 points.

Since details of McDonnell's 1989 grad-school thesis were first published in the Washington Post, the Deeds camp and Dems have tried to use it to drive a wedge between McDonnell and women across the state. Dems have said sections of the thesis about "working women and feminists" -- the document calls them "detrimental to the family" -- could be enough to turn McDonnell-leaning indie and even moderate GOP women (especially in NoVA) into the Deeds supporters.

On a largely party-line vote, the House formally rebuked Rep. Joe Wilson (R) today. By a 240-179 margin, the body voted to disapprove of Wilson's "breach of decorum" when he shouted "you lie" during Pres. Obama's 9/9 health care speech to the House.

There are some interesting names among the 12 Dems who voted against the bill, and the seven GOPers who voted for it. Several Dem members of the upstate NY delegation sided with Wilson, while homestater Bill Inglis (R-SC 04) did not. Of course, following his Tweets today, that was no surprise.

But other than a few Dems who sit in GOP-leaning CDs (Giffords, Massa, Teague), or GOPers who sit in Dem-leaning CDs (Cao, Petri), there were few votes that were cast here appear to be based on political realities back home. The list:

The 12 Dem Nos:

NY-24 Mike Arcuri
MA-10 Bill Delahunt
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords
NY-22 Maurice Hinchey
NH-02 Paul Hodes
OH-10 Dennis Kucinich
NY-25 Dan Maffei
NY-29 Eric Massa
WA-07 Jim McDermott
WI-04 Gwen Moore
MS-04 Gene Taylor
NM-03 Harry Teague

The 5 Dem "Presents":

NY-17 Eliot Engel
IL-14 Bill Foster
MA-04 Barney Frank
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter
MO-04 Ike Skelton

The 7 GOP Yeas:

LA-02 Joe Cao
MO-08 Jo Ann Emerson
AZ-06 Jeff Flake
SC-04 Bob Inglis
NC-03 Walter Jones
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher
WI-06 Tom Petri

Full text of the short resolution is here.

[TIM SAHD]

This morning, Roll Call's Nathan Gonzalez reported the RNC has committed to sending $7M to VA to help ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) battle state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) this fall. According to Gonzalez' anonymous sources, "at least" $5M of the money "will be spend on the ground, in what one strategist called a massive, '[Pres.] Obama-style'" GOTV effort.

This afternoon, CNN's Peter Hamby confirmed the story. From his report:

"[The $7M figure] includes a sum of $400,000 that was transferred directly to" Bob McDonnell on 9/15, "and the nearly $2 million the RNC has already pumped into the race so far this year. The money will be shared between McDonnell's campaign and the Virginia Victory committee, a partnership between the RNC and the Republican Party of Virginia."

Earlier this month, the DNC pledged $5M to help Deeds in the race. Asked about the RNC announcement this afternoon, a DNC official told On Call the org is standing by their previous pledge and claimed the larger nat'l commitment for the GOPer was a sign his party is worried. Since the end of August, the Dem focus in the race has been on McDonnell's 1989 grad school thesis Dems claim represents McDonnell's extremist views on cultural issues. The DNC official said the RNC promise showed the GOP fears it will need to spend a lot to shore up McDonnell's support.

"This is the RNC in panic mode," the official said. "Since devastating revelations about Bob McDonnell's feelings regarding women in the workforce, marriage and equal pay, he's going to need every dollar he can get to run from his record."

As for the RNC's promised Obama-style field operation, the official said "flattery is the best form of compliment -- I think that shows they know what they're up against."

The official declined to offer a breakdown of how the DNC's $5M will be spent between now and Election Day.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

With the NJ GOV race in the nat'l spotlight, election officials there are getting worried about the millions of dollars being spent on the race by federal Dem and GOP groups.

The DGA and RGA, neither of which is required to file campaign finance reports with the NJ Election Law Enforcement Commission, have burned through an estimated $5M on TV ads alone, according to a recent report. While this level of spending by outside groups isn't unprecedented for an important off-year election, it's unfamiliar territory for NJ. In '05, both major party GOV candidates were self-funders and nat'l party organizations didn't see the need to spend heavily.

"My main concern," said ELEC exec. dir. Jeff Brindle, "is that these 527 groups are running issue ads; that we may not get any disclosure and the public may not know how much money is being spent." Federal PACs would only have to file a report in NJ "if they came out and used the magic words 'support' or 'defeat' a particular candidate," he added.

As a matter of policy, Brindle won't say if that's happened yet, or if a complaint has been filed against either the RGA or DGA. But he admits ELEC is closely monitoring the situation. If it determines a federal group crossed the line in support of a candidate, the guilty party could be fined.

It's also possible that the inflow of federal money this cycle will prompt NJ to tighten its reporting requirements. ELEC will reexamine the current rules in March '10, Brindle said. "It's likely that an issue like this might get brought up."

In the meantime, the candidates' next campaign finance reports are due 10/5. Ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie's (R) filing is unlikely to contain any surprises. He's taken public financing and is expected to reach the $10.9M spending cap. On the other hand, Jon Corzine's report will reveal how close the gov. is to reaching his goal of raising $15M from donors.

[SEAN J. MILLER]

Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-09) announced this a.m. that he will not seek the seat of late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D).

Lynch, in a statement: "The challenge of putting together the resources and organization necessary to wage a competitive statewide campaign in less than 90 days is insurmountable."

According to a campaign aide, Lynch made the decision to withdraw his bid 9/14 p.m. Lynch "had really taken no steps to put together a camp team before the senator's death," according to the aide.

The aide said the potential candidacies of Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) -- both of whom emerged as contenders over the past 24 hours -- were not factors in Lynch's decision.

The aide, on Pagliuca: "Pagliuca has a lot of money, but this is a guy who thought that [ex-Gov.] Mitt Romney [R] would be a better Senator than Ted Kennedy."

Lynch has not said anything about whether he will throw his support behind another candidate, according to the aide.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

"World News" led with the raid on suspected terrorists in NYC. "Evening News" was pre-empted for tennis, but aired a west coast edition that led with the economy and featured a taped intv with Treas. Sec. Geithner. "Nightly News" led with the economy.

Pres. Obama sat down for interviews on the business nets 9/14.

Obama, on whether he should have scaled back his agenda because of the financial crisis: "It wasn't a mistake. What I said was that we were going to have to do financial regulatory reform to make sure that this doesn't happen again. We were going to have to build an economy that was based not on boom and bust, but on a firmer foundation of sustained economic growth."

More Obama: "I want to be absolutely clear: I believe in the market. I think that's the way we generate jobs. I have absolutely no interest in having the government maintaining the levels of intervention that we have right now in the financial markets."

Obama, on why he didn't walk the floor of the stock exchange: "There was nothing symbolic there. That was just the fact that these days I create disruptions wherever I go."

More Obama: "One of the things that we did with the recovery package in the first place was anticipating that jobs would be lagging. We said this is a two-year program, not a one-year program. And that's why when critics of the stimulus say, 'Look, only this much money has gone out so far,' it was designed to be two years because we knew that state budgets are still going to be pinched, businesses are still going to be wary of making big investments, and consumers haven't gotten confidence back."

After the jump, more Obama, Geithner is interviewed and the passing of ex-Jimmy Carter aide Jody Powell.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

We knew this MA SEN race was going to be fun.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) quickly and quietly announced during the Aug. recess that, despite some encouragement from people in the state, he wouldn't run for GOV next year. Until now, however, he hasn't really explained why.

Pres. Obama won WI by 14 points, but '10 might shape up to be a bit better for the GOP. Ryan won his district with 65% in '08, as Obama beat McCain in the district by 4 points - it was a flip from '04, when Bush beat Kerry there by 8 points. Many GOPers call Ryan one of the brightest figures in today's GOP and look to him to carry the party's banner in the future. But asked 9/14 why he's not interested in the GOV race, he said, "I just don't want to walk away from this federal fight."

Ex-Bush CoS Andy Card (R) is also not running for MA SEN. That's a very good thing for GOPers, who are just starting to emerge from under the weight of the Bush years. Party insiders didn't relish the notion of Card highlighting that link once again.

Card plans to throw his support to state Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Rep. Ed Markey (D-07), one of the biggest names eyeing a bid to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) in the Senate, announced this p.m. that he will not seek Kennedy's seat, ending nearly two weeks of speculation and opening the door for more contenders to jump into what's likely to be a competitive 12/8 Dem primary.

In a statement, Markey said that he believed he could wield his legislative clout better as a senior House member than as a freshman in the Senate.

Markey: "I have had the honor to serve the people of the Seventh Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for 33 years, and am now the eighth most senior Democrat. I believe that my leadership positions and seniority in the House allow me to accomplish more for my Congressional District and for Massachusetts. I have therefore decided not to become a candidate for the Senate."

Markey, chair of the Energy Independence and Global Warming Cmte and co-author with Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) of the House climate bill, has built a reputation as a nat'l leader on climate change. He is also the dean of MA's cong. delegation, and had he sought the seat, would have brought his name ID and a hefty $2.8M warchest to the fight.

With Markey out, the Dem field so far stands at three: Reps. Michael Capuano (D-08) and Stephen Lynch (D-09), who have both pulled nomination papers from the sec/state's office, and AG Martha Coakley (D), the only Dem to have officially announced a bid.

In the latest Rasmussen poll, conducted 9/8, Coakley pulled in 38% among likely Dem primary voters, while Lynch garnered 11%, Markey 10%, and Capuano 7%.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

Wither Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC 02)?

A new Public Policy Poll (IVR) (D) out today shows Wilson trailing his challenger, '08 nominee/ret. Marine Rob Miller (D), 44-43%.

Things certainly have changed since Nov., when Wilson defeated an aggressive Miller challenge. Then, even the high African-American turnout, along with a solid campaign by Miller, couldn't propel the Dem to a victory, as Wilson won a close 54-46%. John McCain won an identical 54% of the vote there.

Nat'l Dems are surely fired up about Wilson's infamous "you lie" shout to Pres. Obama at his 9/9 speech -- Miller has raised over $750K online in the two days since the ruckus, and the DCCC has also attempted to raise some money off the incident.

But this poll suggests local residents are just as fired up. Sixty-two percent of voters say they disapprove of Wilson's actions while just 29% think they were "ok." But residents were divided on whether the "substance" of his comment -- that Obama was lying -- is correct. Forty-two percent say he was lying, while 46% don't believe he was.

The key for Miller will be to maintain this momentum. If not, once the incident moves off the front pages, this race may well revert back to its environmentally friendly GOP status. Indeed, just after Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN 06) made her controversial remarks on MSNBC's "Hardball" last Oct., a poll showed her losing to her Dem opponent. But less than a month later, she recovered to win a slim re-election. Both MN-06 and SC-02 are similarly comfortable GOP-leaning seats.

Politically, this is solid GOP territory, and in an off-year election, any GOPer should win handily. Despite his early lead in this poll, it'll still be an uphill race for Miller. But events this week certainly put him in the game for the long-haul.

UPDATE: We noticed that African-Americans made up 24% in this survey. That may be assuming too high a %age for a midterm election, as the voting-age population of the CD is right around 25%. That may explain a bit of the Miller bounce. Still, interesting numbers indeed.

(TIM SAHD)

The Hall Institute, an NJ-based think tank, kicked off its inaugural online GOV debate 9/10 with a flurry of opening statements. This forum has its weaknesses -- a shortage of excitement being one of them -- but it does give Web-savvy voters the chance to get to know the field beyond the major party candidates. Here's what we've learned so far about NJers' alternatives to guys named Corzine, Christie and Daggett:

Realtor Kenneth Kaplan is a 61-year-old, divorced father of two running as a libertarian. He likes using pie metaphors. He writes in his opening statement, "I recognize that [Dems and GOPers] stole the pie from you, the taxpayers, and they have no right to dish it out to anyone!" On the issue of "marijuana," he writes: "This is an issue of personal freedom. Whether or not marijuana is good for anyone is irrelevant. Every adult should have the right to make his or her own choices as to what to ingest -- be it alcohol, marijuana, nicotine, or cherry pie."

Independent Gary Steele has conducted a self-interview. Q: "Should your Governor be experienced with figures and budgets?" A: "I have a degree in Accounting and worked as an accountant for 6 years. I attended law school at night while working full time as an accountant." He ends with a pledge, "I want you to feel good about New Jersey again."

Ex-Princeton regional school board member Joshua Leinsdorf, also running as an Indie, has named Nat'l Guard vet/father of five Ubaldo Figliola as his LG nom. Their strategy? Win "one-third" of the Indie vote. Leinsdorf writes, "We can take the government back by telling everyone that Joshua Leinsdorf and Ubaldo Figliola have a program for creating jobs and restoring everybody's discretionary income."

"A conservative Republican and two liberals."

That's how businessman Doug Hoffman (C) breaks down the NY-23 special election contest between Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R), atty Bill Owens (D) -- the two "liberals" -- and himself -- the GOPer. There's just one problem: he's not running on the GOP line; party leaders nominated Scozzofava over several candidates, including Hoffman. So instead, the Conservative Party gave him their nod.

Who knew when Pres. Obama plucked Rep. John McHugh (R) from this North Country CD to be Army Sec. that things would get so complicated in the race to replace him?

Party labels mean practically nothing in this race. Owens is a registered independent, not a Democrat. He recently has applied to join the party, though. And Scozzafava takes many un-Republican stands on several issues, as she's pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. In fact, she's to the left of Owens on the gay marriage front; he says he's for civil unions, but she one-upped him by for same-sex marriage in the Assembly.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Maj. Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC chair Howard Dean and Ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich. The roundtable features CNBC's Erin Burnett, author Joshua Cooper Ramo and NBC's Chuck Todd.

Face the Nation hosts Obama sr. advisor David Axelrod, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Washington Post Writers' Group's Kathleen Parker and Politico's Roger Simon.

This Week hosts Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), Sen. John Rockefeller (D-WV) and HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebelius. The roundtable features New York Times' David Brooks, ABC's Sam Donaldson, ABC's Cokie Roberts, and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Sen. Lindsey Graham, (R-SC), SEIU pres. Andy Stern, FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Dem strategist Donna Brazile, ex-RNC Chair/ex-George W. Bush counselor Ed Gillespie, and House Min. Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's speech. "Evening News" led with Rep. Joe Wilson (D-SC) . "Nightly News" led with Pres. Obama's speech.

Wilson appeared on "Hannity" on 9/10 p.m. to discuss his outburst.

Wilson, on the WH reaction to his apology: "They were very gracious in accepting my apology, and said, 'Let's get on to discuss the issues,' and that's what we need to be doing."

Wilson, on illegal immigrants getting health insurance: "They could get the insurance. They could get the benefits, they could get the subsidies. And the reason I know this is because I served on a committee where we considered amendments. And then followed the amendments on other committees, the Energy and Commerce, on Ways and Means, and I noticed that the Democrats had defeated the amendments that would provide for enforcement. And the verification of citizenship."

More Wilson: "And so when the president said this, I knew what he was saying was not accurate. I do apologize for speaking out, but what was said was not accurate."

After the jump, more Wilson and ex-Rep. James Traficant (D-OH) goes "On the Record."

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL) said he has no plans to run for SEN, either in '10 or, as some have speculated, in '12.

The Senate's newest -- and youngest -- member spoke with On Call following his swearing-in ceremony at the Capitol this p.m. A close ally of, and onetime CoS, to FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), LeMieux was appointed by Crist to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) and is largely considered a caretaker for the seat his ex-boss seeks to fill in '10.

"I have no plans to run for political office at this time," LeMieux said. "I'm focused on this position, and I've got a lot to learn and do in sixteen months. So I'm not worried about the next job. I'm focused on this job."

Pressed on whether a '12 bid might be on the table, LeMieux replied: "I'm not focused on running for any political position, in 2010 or 2012."

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

Speaking to reporters this p.m., Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) said that "every day," progress is being made on his cmte's health care bill, and lauded Pres. Obama's address as helping to create momentum for reform's passage.

"Every day we move closer to resolution," Baucus said. "And I mean that."

The Finance Cmte chair said that he believed Obama's speech was successful in part because it mirrored his cmte's efforts toward reform.

Baucus: "I think it certainly helped create more momentum for the whole process, and partly because his remarks fairly closely resembled our efforts in the Finance Committee. It's very similar. And I think that it was a recognition that's generally the direction in which we must move, and I think that's very helpful."

Baucus said that due to the increased momentum provided by Obama's speech, "probably a few more" members will vote in favor of reform than otherwise would have.

He offered few new details of his bipartisan panel's reform talks. But he noted that the panel's bill will include language stating that illegal immigrants are clearly excluded from receiving health care benefits, and mentioned social security numbers as a primary way of identifying eligibility.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the health care speech and hosted Obama sr. advisor David Axelrod.

Reaction Obama's speech dominated TV last night, with many pols and pundits weighing in.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), on Obama's "power to kill of senior citizens" comment: "I think that the president made an unnecessary comment there" ("LKL," CNN, 9/9).

House Min. Whip Eric Cantor: "I really sat there aghast with those kind of claims and the hyperbole that was used. We need some adult sense of responsibility here. We need to try and produce the reforms that we know that the American people want" ("Hannity," FNC, 9/9).

Ex-Obama deputy mgr. Steve Hildebrand: "I think tonight was a game-changer for this health care reform debate. And I do think he really hit this out of the ballpark. He explained in very clear terms what he stands for, what he believes, and the principles that he's going to fight for, continue to fight for in this health care reform debate, so, yes, I'm very pleased" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/9).

After the jump, more on Obama's speech and reaction to GOP heckling.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

ALEXANDRIA, VA -- Even as a celebrity guest of honor, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was still second fiddle. Pawlenty, among the list of GOPers expected to seek the GOP WH nomination in '12, touched down in VA on 9/9 to stump for ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) on a statewide tour that took him from Richmond to the DC suburbs.

Pawlenty -- once on the very, very short list for John McCain's VP in '08 -- has had a hard time making waves since he announced he would not seek a third term as gov earlier this year. As GOP opposition to Obama reached a fever pitch in Aug., Pawlenty was not the GOPer who carried the flag. That duty fell to the woman who beat him out for the VP slot, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R). And yesterday, a Palin op-ed in the Wall Street Journal again dominated the nat'l storyline as the country prepared for Pres. Obama's health care address. And rather than be a lead voice of his party on the topic, Pawlenty spent a much of the day taking questions on Palin.

In VA, it was the same story.

Pols on both sides, like most of us, were atwitter about Pres. Obama's primetime health care speech tonight, tweeting up a storm before, during and after the address. Here's a sample.

Pre-Address

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN): "On House floor waiting for POTUS. He needs to hit reset button, start over. Folks r more worried bout big govt than anytime in my life.#tcot" 9/9, 7:39 PM

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL): "Just read excerpts from President's speech for tonight. I'm glad the president is proposing insurance exchanges ... Health-insurance exchanges will help the nearly one-in-four Floridians who don't have or cannot get affordable health insurance." 7:46 PM

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI): "In the House chamber waiting for President's speech. Not handing out President's speech. Unusual! Only talking points! Go figure ... Handing out laminated talking points produced by the White House is tacky. This is serious business. I will not twit during speech." 7:57 PM

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO): "No tweeting during President's speech. Don't want my mom to holler at me about bad manners." 8:01 PM

During The Speech

Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK): "Attending a joint session of Congress where Obama will again lend his support for socialized health care. I oppose his plan! ... Obama says our health care problem is our deficit problem. what about his $1 trill spending spree this year?" 8:25 PM

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY): "Obama: 'The time for bickering is over'" 8:29 PM

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA): "The idea of not allowing folks to be denied coverage because of a pre existing condition is a good one." 8:33 PM

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC): "Obama says it's a partisan healthcare battle. Doesn't he realize Dems control Congress(57% House, 59% Senate)? His problm is his own party." 8:37 PM

Post-Address

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid: "Pres. Obama explained his clear vision of health insurance reform. Time to get it done. #hc09" 9:06 PM

Rep. John Carter (R-TX): "Will now wade through this crowd on the House floor and get over to where I can webcast (JudgeCarter live > http://ustre.am/4n0b)" 9:06 PM

Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME): "The President did a very very good job, it was a great speech and he laid out a very good plan. ... President walked by while I was waiting outside the Chamber. I told him he did very well and he gave me a hug. http://yfrog.com/12ph1rj" 9:07 PM

Rep. Dave Camp (R-MI): "It is the wrong approach; the President missed opp. to say 'no' the extremists in his party and 'yes' to the American ppl. #hcr #hc #tcot" 9:08 PM

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT): "Tonight, President Obama made a tremendous case for action on health care reform. ... Anyone who doesn't understand the urgency of this crisis fails to recognize the needs of the American people. ... The President made it clear tonight that the time to act is now -- and I, for one, am ready to join him in this fight." 9:10 PM

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT): "The President didn't sway many.....perhaps none of the congress in the room." 9:11 PM

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA): "Happy to hear clear focus on cost. Inaction is unfair to consumers, makes business uncompetitive & will bankrupt our gov't. ... Also glad he called out "death panel" scare tactics. Whether malice or ignorance, it disrespects families dealing w/ aging issues. ... Appreciated Pres' bipartisan tone. Let's keep what works, fix what's broken. We agree on 80%." 9:20 PM

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL): "Agree w/Pres Obama that 80 percent of what he outlined in health reform we agree on so why not pass that now: no preexisting discrmntn, etc?" 9:31 PM

McCaskill: "Strong speech. Big olive branch to Republicans. Hope they realize the cost of doing nothing is much higher than resonable measured reform ... Biggest disappointmnt of evening, the total lack of respect shown by one member for the President.Never acceptable to behave like a jerk." 9:35 PM

BONUS TWEET: Promises Made, Promises Kept

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) tried to steal the show from Obama tonight with his soon-to-be-a-cable-news-staple "you lie!" outburst while Obama was telling the joint session the reform plan he supports won't cover illegal immigrants.

Here's Wilson's last tweet, posted over the weekend. Was it a harbinger of the attempted interruption to come?

Wilson: "Happy Labor Day! Wonderful parade at Chapin, many people called out to oppose Obamacare which I assured them would be relayed tomorrow to DC" 9/7, 11:29 AM

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

AP reports it was Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Classy).

In the build up to this speech, the WH had vehemently avoided being nailed down on the question of whether Pres. Obama would sign a bill that didn't include a so-called "public option." That ambiguity remains. The only hard-line taken in this speech was a refusal to accept the "status quo," or an increase in spending. "I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits," Obama said, "either now or in the future."

Instead, Obama again laid out sweeping proposals that included health insurance reform, coupled with the creation of a "publicly-sponsored insurance option" as an alternative to private coverage. The public option, he said, "could provide a good deal for consumers." And under his reform proposal, Obama said "it will be against the law for insurance companies to deny you coverage because of a pre-existing condition," a line which drew one of the few hardy standing ovations from members of both parties. "It will be against the law for insurance companies to drop your coverage when you get sick or water it down when you need it most," he said.

The health insurance reforms, if passed, could be trumpeted as a major achievement by Dems. But rewriting the rules for insurance providers doesn't seem like one of the "great things" Obama said Dems came to DC to enact. Rather, it's only a baby step toward the ultimate prize -- the creation of a middle-class, government administered health insurance program. "We did not come to fear the future," Obama said. "We came here to shape it."

Whether a bill reaches Obama's desk that is worthy of his rhetoric remains to be seen.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

The SCOTUS today appeared poised to strike down at least a portion of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of '02, after a majority of justices fiercely questioned Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan and an atty for the legislation's sponsors, including Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Russ Feingold (D-WI).

The case -- Citizens United v. FEC -- was first heard by the court on 3/24, but, in an unusual move, the court held over the case and ordered a re-hearing before the start of its Oct. term. Citizens United, a nonprofit advocacy org, produced a 90-min. film titled "Hillary: The Movie" meant for a video-on-demand service. The movie took an unflattering view then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in advance of her WH '08 bid. But the FEC ruled that the film fell under the McCain-Feingold provisions for political ads and should be regulated. Citizens United said it was a documentary, and FEC regulation was a violation of their First Amendment rights.

The order for a re-hearing was widely seen as an indication that the court was seriously considering a broad ruling striking down McCain-Feingold, and today's proceedings did little to make court-watchers feel differently. The basic question before the court: Does the Constitution allow the gov't to impose restrictions on independent expenditures by corporations in the political arena?

As Pres. Obama prepares to address a Joint Session of Congress tonight about his health-care-reform plan, a new AP/GfK poll out today shows that his task is greater than selling the country on just the legislation.

According to the new poll, just 42% of Americans approve the way Obama is handling health care, down sharply from just five months ago. More than half of Americans -- 52% -- now disapprove of Obama's handling of the issue.

The new survey comes at a critical moment for Obama's presidency and Dem efforts to reform the health-care system, and it underscores the rough summer both Obama and his party have endured. In the previous AP/GfK poll in mid-July, voters approved of his handling of health care, 50%-43%.

Obama's overall approval has fallen along with his ratings on health care, with Americans split in half -- 50% to 49% -- on the question. That is down from 55% to 42% in mid-July.

The poll, conducted 9/3-8, surveyed 1,001 adults with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

"World News" led with Obama's school speech. "Evening News" led with health care. "Nightly News" led with Obama's school speech.

Both politicians and pundits weighed in on cable what the hope - and hope not - to hear from Obama in his address to Congress on 9/8 p.m.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), on what he wants to hear from Obama: "I think the president thinks that he can do anything with words. And he's still campaigning, and I'm glad he's taking this opportunity to talk to us and the American people, and we need to listen to what he says. But I want to hear him defend his bill. ....I don't want to hear generalities. I don't want to hear any more false promises, you know, based on these government solutions. He needs to defend his plan and not just criticize those of us who are presenting alternatives" ("On the Record," FNC, 9/8).

Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), predicting what Obama will do: "I think ... the president of the United States is going to do what only presidents can do, which is stand up and make the case."

Weiner, on what he wants Obama to say tonight: "The idea that the federal government can't administer a health care plan has to be rebutted forcefully by the president of the United States. ... And, frankly, without a public option, just the same way the president said opponents need to stand up and say what their choice was, the president has to do that tomorrow night as well" ("Rachel Maddow Show," MSNBC, 9/8).

After the jump, more on Obama's speech, part of his interview with ABC's Roberts and the public option.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

In a ploy to raise awareness and funds from a nat'l audience, both Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and TX Gov. Rick Perry (R) are now running Internet ads on conservative websites.

Today, the Perry camp has been especially aggressive, paying for a banner ad at the big daddy of conservative news aggregators, the Drudge Report. One of the Perry ads on the site features a grumpy looking Hutchison and says, "Delivering record bailouts, pork, and debt ... since 1993." It then changes to "'Like watching a train wreck.' -TownHall.com."

Clicking on the ad takes one directly to a page that solicits contributions to the Perry campaign, and plays a youtube ad spoofing the Senate's return to session, with the "Welcome Back Kotter" theme song and images of Hutchison on the Senate floor and of Washington, D.C.

A campaign official from the Hutchison camp has also been advertising on Drudge and conservative websites like Red State and Human Events. The official added, "The Perry campaign is once again following our lead on that."

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

The Hotline has confirmed a TV Newser report that MSNBC anchor Carlos Watson will no longer be anchoring the network's 11am hour.

TV Newser reported that "a new anchor rotation will begin for Watson's slot starting this week with with Tamron Hall and Monica Novotny anchoring on Tuesday and Hall and Alex Witt anchoring Wednesday-Friday. No mention of the programming change was made during the time slot, but network spokesman Jeremy Gaines told The Hotline, "We haven't announced a permanent 11am anchor(s) yet. TVNewser reported this week's plan."

Watson's show was part of a mid-summer personality-branding effort for each hour of MSNBC dayside programming. The current plan with Novotny, Hall, and Alex Witt is indicative of a shift, albeit possibly temporary, back the the network's dayside rotating system of female newsreaders, rather than more ideological, personality-driven program.

Watson's career at MSNBC is not over, though. "He'll remain with us as a contributor," said Gaines.

[ABBY LIVINGSTON]

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with health care.

FL GOP chair Jim Greer appeared on "Campbell Brown" with Daily Beast's John Avlon and syndicated columnist David Sirota on 9/7 p.m.

Greer, on whether his previous criticism of the Obama classroom speech was a mistake: "No ... I didn't make a mistake. I think the speech that we will see tomorrow, I still don't believe necessarily it's the one that would have been given three days ago."

Greer, on the WH saying it's the same speech: "The White House says it is. And I certainly respect them for promoting their position. But we have to remember the lesson plans that came out five days ago, which was an end-run by the White House to try and get around parents."

After the jump, more on the classroom controversy, Laura Bush and the Van Jones resignation.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Obama sr. advisor David Axelrod, NBC's Tom Brokaw, ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN), New York Times' Tom Friedman and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Face the Nation hosts Education Sec. Arne Duncan.

This Week hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, ex-Sen. Maj. Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD), ex-Sen. Maj. Leader Bob Dole (R-KS), Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA). The roundtable features GOP strategist Matthew Dowd, The Nation's Katrina vanden Heuvel, New York Times' David Sanger and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts TBA.

State of the Union hosts CDC dir. Dr. Thomas Frieden, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), GOP strategist Ed Rollins and Dem strategist Joe Trippi (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX)

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's classroom address. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with new workforce statistics.

FL GOP chair Jim Greer made the TV rounds 9/3 p.m. to discuss Obama's planned speech to school children.

Greer, on whether he really thinks Obama is the pied piper: "I don't want him to take children away, but I don't want him to take their minds away either to push his agenda. ... As a parent, I want to know what my kids are going to be taught, what they're going to be exposed to in the school system. ... And before anybody talks to my children from a political perspective, I want to know what they have to say" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/3).

Greer: "I think the speech Tuesday will be significantly different than the one he was going to give 48 hours ago."

CNN's Cooper: "Whoa. We'll talk about the lesson plan in a second, but the actual speech. You have no evidence of what he was actually going to talk about."

Greer: "I will tell you and it does tie in with the lesson plans because that's what started everything. When the lessons plans talk about writing about how we can help President Obama, talk about his new ideas, talk about what he's done since he has become president and what makes you admire him and the initiatives he's put forth, that, to me, is an indication that his speech Tuesday was going to somehow talk about public policy issues."

After the jump, more on the Obama classroom debate and Coakley.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

MA AG Martha Coakley (D) told On Call yesterday that in her bid to fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D-MA) seat, she has a number of assets -- but time is not one of them.

Coakley is the first -- and so far, only -- candidate to jump into the race for Kennedy's seat. She pulled nominating papers from the sec/state's office on Tues., one day after MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D) set the primary and special elections for 12/8 and 1/19. Yesterday a.m., Coakley officially announced her bid. If elected, she would become MA's first female sen.

In an interview, Coakley said that while she and her staff "certainly understand how sensitive it is" to begin campaigning so soon after Kennedy's death, her quick entry into the race was "based on necessity" due to the "incredibly short timeline" of the campaign.

"There are a lot of legal requirements to run a good, strong campaign," Coakley said, noting that that unlike most of the other SEN hopefuls, she starts with a deficit because she does not already have a federal campaign account.

Also setting her apart from other candidates: her decision to run regardless of whether a member of the Kennedy family makes a bid. "Everybody will make his own decision," she said. "My plan is not geared toward whether 'X' gets in or whether 'Y' gets in."

Asked what she'll do if a Kennedy does decide to jump in the race, Coakley replied: "I think it won't change my plan. I know it won't change my plan. I've decided I'm in. I'm going to see this race out."

"We're going to run on our own strengths," she added.

Mirroring her remarks yesterday a.m. on whether Patrick should be granted the power to appoint an interim sen. to fill the seat for the months leading up to the special, Coakley said that any decision is up to the gov. and the legislature, and whatever they decide, it will have no effect on her race.

Coakley added: "I actually think the time is short. So if they do it and they appoint someone, and they think that's appropriate, I think that's fine. And if they don't, I think the time will go by so quickly and then the special election will happen."

Asked whether she believes that an interim sen. should agree not to run in the special, she said: "I think everybody agrees with that." She added that given the tight filing deadlines and accelerated campaign calendar, it would be "virtually impossible" for the interim sen. to also run in the special.

She also mused that it would be hard for an interim sen. to serve effectively while also running a 24-7 campaign. "And if your goal is to appoint somebody to pay attention in the short term," she asked, "how can you do that?"

Coakley said that if elected, her first priority would be to focus on the need to stabilize the economy -- noting that federal gov't "hasn't done the job it needs to do" -- followed by issues including global warming and health care reform. On the latter, said that she is in favor of a public option.

She touted MA's role in health care reform -- although she did not specifically mention Kennedy -- and said that unless legislators find a way to get health care costs under control, the country is "headed for disaster."

She also voiced her support for labor and the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) -- a key factor should Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-09), a conservative Dem with strong backing from unions and blue-collar voters, make a bid.

Lynch is also said to be eyeing the seat and, like Coakley, has privately told supporters he will run no matter who enters the race.

[FELICIA SONMEZ]

After the Clinton administration's health care reform plan failed, votes cast for Republican House candidates increased by record numbers in 1994. As health care reform drags on, prognosticators can't help but wonder if another GOP surge is in the making. Some Democrats who were already vulnerable, like Rep. Tom Perriello of Virginia's 5th District, face even more uncertainty as the fervor of the right shakes their districts.

In this video, one political neophyte who is now vying to take Perriello's place in Washington talks about the excitement of the base. For more on the increase of votes for Republican House candidates in 1994, use this map to explore where the largest boost came from. And for more on Virginia's 5th District, read a Q&A with Cook Political Report's David Wasserman.

(**Updated 9/4 with a statement from Treas. Neely)

After months of relative quiet, the IL Dem SEN primary field was shaken up last week by the entry of Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D) into the race. His rollout, so far, has been entirely remote -- only a Web video announcing his intentions has been released. That will soon change. "I will be making my formal announcement during the week after Labor Day, followed by a tour around the state," Hoffman said 9/2 in an email to supporters.

Hoffman's entry into the race could help Chicago Urban League pres. Cheryle Robinson Jackson (D) -- she started including her maiden name this week -- as she remains the only woman and only African-American vying for the Dem nod. Moreover, one potential challenger to Jackson's demographic advantage has decided against running. Despite persistent rumors, Chicago City Treas. Stephanie Neely (D) decided 9/2 not to run.

"Over the past several weeks I have been considering running for the US Senate in 2010," Neely said in a statement. "I strongly believe my financial expertise, and passion for financial literacy make me uniquely qualified for this position. However, at this time I must focus on raising my young son. I will continue to serve my City as Treasurer to the best of my ability."

[SEAN J. MILLER]

"World News" led with health care. "Evening News" led with the inspector general's report on the Bernard Madoff investigation. "Nightly News" led with the CA wildfires.

Obama sr. adviser David Axelrod made the TV rounds pushing health care 9/2 p.m.

Axelrod, on why Obama is addressing the nation on health care next week, and whether Obama felt like the debate was "slipping away from him": "No, I think that we've gone through months and months of debate and discussion. All the ideas are on the table now. It's a new season. It's a new phase of this debate and it seems appropriate as we enter the final weeks for the president to address the nation and talk about how we're going to provide stability and security to people who have health insurance and help those who can't afford insurance get the coverage they need."

Axelrod, on how "specific" Obama's speech will get: "I don't think anybody will leave the speech without a strong sense of how ... he believes we should proceed. ... I think it's going to be very, very clear by the time the speech is done that he sees a clear path to how we can provide stability and security to people who have insurance. And how he can help those who don't have insurance get the coverage they need."

After the jump, more on Obama's speech to Congress, health care and conservative reaction to Obama's address to classroom students.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the CA wildfires.

The recent discovery of ex-AG Bob McDonnell's (R) Masters thesis was discussed on "Hardball" last night.

Independent Women's Forum's Michelle Bernard talked about the thesis on 9/1 p.m.

Bernard, on examining McDonnell's thesis: "Here's the dynamic you have to look at. Sometimes, you might say, well, you can't say that somebody believes the things that they wrote or that they have not evolved if they wrote a thesis, say, at age 21 or 22. He was a 34-year-old man when he wrote this. ... It absolutely wasn't the indiscretion of youth."

More Bernard: "Second question, then, is, did he write this because he thought this would be appealing to the teachers at Pat Robertson's school, a very far-right conservative school, or did he write this because he actually believes it? Women are one of the most important voting blocs in the country."

MSNBC's Matthews: "You're saying his defense would be he was sucking up to a professor."

Bernard: "It could be his defense. ... It doesn't mean it is a defense that would win."

After the jump, more on the VA Gov race and health care.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

CA LG John Garamendi (D) raised the most cash from donors, had the highest name ID and led in all the polls heading into the 9/1 CA-10 special election. And all of that, combined with the shortened time frame of special, added up to a primary victory for him last night in the Contra Costa Co.-based CD. In the race to replace State Dept. official Ellen Tauscher (D), Garamendi topped the 14-candidate field with 26%, and will head to an 11/3 runoff against top-GOP vote-getter/atty David Harmer (R), who took 21%.

But Garamendi's toughest challenge in this CD where Obama took 65% in '08 may have been the Dem primary. Tauscher endorsed state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D) early in the contest, when he was the only candidate in the race. But that didn't scare off Assemb. Joan Buchanan (D), who earned the powerful EMILY's List endorsement and put in over $750K of her own cash into the race.

A DeSaulnier/Buchanan contest would've been interesting, as each campaign released polls showing their candidate with the lead. But when Garamendi entered the contest, the air went out of the other Dems' balloons. Iraq vet Anthony Woods (D), who was discharged from the Army under its "Don't ask, don't tell" policy, garnered tons of press attention when he entered, but couldn't build on it enough to seriously compete for the seat. In the end, DeSaulnier and Buchanan faded, taking 18% and 12%, respectively. Woods ended up with 8%.

In fact, the best attack the other Dems could mount against the well known and popular Garamendi was that he was a "carpetbagger." That's technically true, as half of his ranch is in the CD, while half is out (Garamendi said in his announcement: "Our front yard is in the 10th district, but our bedroom is not"). Still, for a CD that has tons of San Francisco-area transplants, that issue rang a bit hollow.

Garamendi will face Harmer in the runoff, and he's strongly favored in the race. Harmer has raised a respectable amount of cash, and the NRCC has put him on their "On the Radar" list of competitive challengers. But considering Dems took a combined 65% (identical to Obama's '08 % here) to the GOP's 35% 9/1, Harmer has a distinct uphill climb.

(TIM SAHD)

Less than a week after the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), the first candidate has begun the formal process of making a bid to replace him.

MA AG Martha Coakley (D), who has been making her interest in the seat known in Dem circles, moved quickly in making the first step. Coakley comm. dir. Alex Zaroulis confirmed to On Call that a Coakley staffer pulled papers for a special election bid from the MA sec/state's office this a.m. Yesterday, MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D) called the special for 1/19/10, with the party primaries set for 12/8.

Coakley is among several Dems -- including Reps. Ed Markey (D-07), Stephen Lynch (D-09) and Michael Capuano (D-08) -- said to be weighing a run. She had reportedly told associates that she would run regardless of whether a member of the Kennedy family made a bid. If she won the seat, she would become the first woman elected to the Senate from MA.

Earlier today, Politics magazine reported that Univ. of MA-Lowell chancellor/ex-Rep. Martin Meehan will not run, according to two veteran MA Dem sources.

[FELICIA SONMEZ]

So much for Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) surge in the polls.

After partisan polls showed Corzine closing the gap with ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R), a Quinnipiac Univ. survey out today shows Corzine trailing Christie by 10 points, 47%-37%, with ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I) earning 9%. Another poll released today by Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. shows Christie leading 47%-42%.

So should Corzine be worried? Not at all, according to the DGA, which points to the some 500K "surge voters" who registered around the '08 NJ presidential primary. "I would venture to bet that most of these new surge voters in the state are not falling in most of these polling universes," DGA political dir. Raymond Glendening told reporters on a conference call yesterday. These surge voters, he said, will "make up three to five points" for Corzine on election day. This block of probable Corzine supporters isn't getting reached by pollsters because they don't use "traditional communication sources," Glendening added. "They do the majority of their communication through cell phone, email, through social networking sites." As a result, he said, "they don't fall into these kinds of universes."

But according to Quinnipiac Univ. poll dir. Douglas Schwartz, new registrants are being included in their polling. "Newly registered voters have a chance of being included in our polls because we don't rely on past vote in our likely voter model," he wrote in an email, adding, "We include cell phone onlys in our polls." The latest Q poll, conducted 8/25-30, surveyed 1,612 LVs, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4%.

During yesterday's call, Glendening also pointed to NJ's history as a "late-breaking" state as another reason why Corzine shouldn't sweat these new poll numbers. "People that are IDing as likely voters are going to happen more in the last week, to week and a half, which for 95% of polling, wouldn't be relevant," he said.

Still, the DGA isn't taking the support of these "surgers" entirely for granted -- rather it's the opposite. The DGA political dept. is spending the "majority" of its time "really trying to get a handle on all the new voters that are now in our political process," said Glendening. It's planning a targeted fall ad campaign and is coordinating with NJ Dems to use the party "structure" to ID these voters and turn them out. Sounds straightforward, but in a state where Dems held a 260K registration advantage in '08, the fact that Corzine needs to rely on these new voters to close the gap is telling. Christie, meanwhile, isn't resting comfortably. "You always worry when you're being outspent 10-1," ex-Gov. Tom Kean Sr. (R) told reporters today. "You can't say it's over by any means."

[SEAN J. MILLER/STEVEN SHEPARD]

"World News" led with the CA wildfires. "Evening News" led with Afghanistan and the roadside bombing that killed an American soldier and injured CBS' Cami McCormick. "Nightly News" led with the CA wildfires.

Health care and the CIA were the main topics discussed last night.

Ex-Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS) appeared on "Your World" on 8/31 p.m.

Dole, on reform: "This is probably about the most important domestic legislation that Obama will deal with in the first four years. He is hoping for four more, but in the first four. And he ought to be proud of it. And it ought to be the Obama bill."

More Dole, pushing for bipartisanship: "If you got, say, 20 Republicans voting in the Senate for this bill, it's going to have a lot more credibility and the American people are going to be more willing to accept it."

Dole, on advice he'd give the GOP with regards to reform: "I said, don't get in this mode where you are just going to be against everything. ... have something to offer. ... And if you get just party-line votes, at least you have offered something. And you're going to leave out the public option and all these poison pills that are in the bill. You are will be perceived by a lot of people in America as trying to do the right thing. But if you just don't do anything or oppose everything, that is the worst possible position for the Republican Party to be in" (FNC, 8/31).

After the jump, more on health care and the CIA investigation.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)