VA GOV: New Poll Shows Modest Inroads For Deeds

State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) trails ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) by five points in the first live-interview, non-partisan poll taken in the race since the news of McDonnell's controversial grad-school thesis broke last month.

The survey, from Clarus Research Group, shows McDonnell leading Deeds, 42%-37%, with 20% of voters undecided. It is Clarus' first poll of the campaign, so there is no trend data for comparison. McDonnell's average lead in other publicly-released polls conducted during Aug. was greater than 10 points.

Since details of McDonnell's 1989 grad-school thesis were first published in the Washington Post, the Deeds camp and Dems have tried to use it to drive a wedge between McDonnell and women across the state. Dems have said sections of the thesis about "working women and feminists" -- the document calls them "detrimental to the family" -- could be enough to turn McDonnell-leaning indie and even moderate GOP women (especially in NoVA) into the Deeds supporters.

The poll suggests Deeds has a long way to go before he makes that connection. The two candidates are tied, 40%-40%, among women, with 20% undecided. Men favor McDonnell, 44%-35%, with 21% undecided.

In vote-rich, Dem-leaning NoVa, Deeds leads, 45%-40%, with 15% undecided. Voters there approve of Pres. Obama's job performance, 54%-39%. They also approve of Gov. Tim Kaine (D), 56%-27%.

Deeds is also struggling in the battleground areas of central and SE VA, where McDonnell leads, 41%-36%, with 23% undecided. Kaine is still popular among those voters, with 59% approving of his job performance to only 28% disapproval.

In the more rural western and SW areas of the commonwealth, McDonnell has a sizable lead, 48%-33%, with 19% undecided. There, both Obama and Kaine are significantly less popular than in other parts of the state.

On the subject of the thesis, 52% of voters surveyed said they were familiar with the story. Of those, 31% said it made them view McDonnell less favorably.

But a closer look shows that the thesis issue isn't making serious inroads among indie voters. Of those who now view McDonnell less favorably, 76% are Dems, and only 16% are indies.

Indeed, the poll shows there is little crossover support for either candidate. Neither Deeds nor McDonnell draws more than 5% of voters from the other party, according to the survey.

Among indies, McDonnell leads, 37%-30%. Still, a third of indie voters remain undecided.

That's the good news for Deeds, who has trailed most of the summer. The bad news is that the thesis may not be the galvanizing issue Dems thought it could be for those voters.

Clarus surveyed 600 RVs between 9/10-14, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.

(STEVEN SHEPARD/EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)