October 2009

The guy that was once labeled a spoiler may now be in the drivers' seat come 11/3 in NY-23. Accountant Doug Hoffman (C) stands to be the one who gains the most by today's announcement that Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) is dropping out of the race. And toward that end, the GOP leadership announced today that it was backing his candidacy.

In a statement from Min. Leader John Boehner, Min. Whip Eric Cantor and NRCC Chair Pete Sessions, the GOPers said they "look forward to welcoming" Hoffman into the Conference. "He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs," the leaders wrote in a statement. "It is vital that we unify behind a candidate that will support reining in massive government spending and work with Republicans in Congress to restore fiscal sanity and propose thoughtful measures to get our nation's economy on the right track."

With just three days left in the race, what the cmte can do most for Hoffman is help him with the get-out-the-vote effort, and sources say that's going to happen.

Scozzafava's support -- measured at 20% in the today's Siena College poll -- consisted of 29% GOPers, 15% indies, and 11% of Dems. Getting those GOP voters to come home will likely be the difference between Hoffman winning and losing.

Hoffman sought to rally GOPers behind his banner in a statement. "This morning's events prove what we have said for the last week; this campaign is a horserace between me and Nancy Pelosi's handpicked candidate, Bill Owens," wrote Hoffman. "At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads. They are throwing mud; they are trying to stop me." He added it's "time for us to send a message" to DC -- "we're sick and tired of big spending, high taxing, career politicians."

Hoffman mgr Rob Ryan told us he's confident "the vast majority" of Scozzafava's voters will head Hoffman's way, but acknowledged the race has been anything but predictable so far. "I've been doing this for 33 years, and I've never seen anything like this race before," Ryan said.

GOP consultant Carl Forti, who's a native of upstate New York, says he's confident Scozzafava's exit means those GOPers who were in Scozzafava's camp will move to Hoffman, giving him the "clear advantage in the race."

But considering Scozzafava's moderate-to-liberal profile, Owens should stand to gain some support from her more moderate followers. And in a statement today, he made a play for those voters. "Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava has been an honorable public servant for years now and I have a tremendous amount of respect for her and her commitment to her principles," wrote Owens. While we disagree on certain issues, we share a dedication to serving the best interests of Upstate New York and the Obama administration's efforts to get our economy back on track."

One Dem consultant who's familiar with the race says Owens' best hope remains in getting the labor support that had backed Scozzafava to move solidly towards him.

Indeed, Scozzafava was endorsed by both the local Central Trades and Labor Council, and also the UAW. The Dem consultant believes Scozzafava's husband, who heads the Labor Council -- and who reportedly attempted early in the process to get Dems to pick his wife to be their party's nominee -- may now be clear to make a push for Owens in the final days.

Of course, since Scozzafava will remain on the ballot, there's the question of whether those voters will actually still chose her on Election Day. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times today that she still thinks she'll receive more than 20% of the vote. If that is the case, Hoffman's chances are hindered greatly. But considering that her support had seen a sharp decline in recent weeks, Scozzafava is not likely to garner such wide support on 11/3.

Because of the big GOP voter registration edge there, and because of the CD's GOP historical leanings, Dems have always downplayed Owens' chances in the CD. Still, Owens had a good shot at winning as long as the GOP field remained divided. Those hopes may have been dashed today, and the unlikely "conservative Republican" Conservative Party candidate may be the frontrunner heading into Election Day.

But considering the events of the last several weeks in this race, anything is bound to happen here in the last couple days.

(TIM SAHD)

In a major turn, Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R), acknowledging that polls have shown her cratering, has dropped out of the NY-23 special election, saying she's been "unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record."

Scozzafava tells supporters that she's always been a "proud Republican," but fails to endorse accountant Doug Hoffman (C) or atty Bill Owens (D). Since she's dropping out just three days before the election, her name will remain on the ballot; she told the Watertown Daily Times that she still expects to get over 20%. If that's the case, that'll greatly injure Hoffman's chances of winning.

Scozzafava, in a statement:

Throughout the course of my campaign for Congress, I have made the people of the 23rd District and the issues that affect them the focal point of my campaign. As a life long resident of this District, I care deeply and passionately about its people and our way of life. Whether as a candidate for Congress, a State Assemblywoman or a small town Mayor, I have always sought to act with the best interest of our District and its residents in mind --and today I again seek to act for the good of our community.

The opportunity to run as the Republican and Independence Party candidate to represent the 23rd District has been and remains one of the greatest honors of my life. During the past several months, as I've traveled the district, meeting and talking with voters about the issues that matter most to them, I've been overwhelmed by the amount of support I've received as I sought to serve as their voice in Washington. However, as Winston Churchill once said, Democracy can be a fickle employer, and the road to public office is not always a smooth one.

In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money -- and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record. But as I've said from the start of this campaign, this election is not about me, it's about the people of this District. And, as always, today I will do what I believe serves their interests best.

It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me -- and to those who choose not to -- I offer my sincerest thanks.

A new Siena College poll out this a.m. has good news for atty Bill Owens (D) and accountant Doug Hoffman (C). Owens still leads, 36-35%, but his advantage over Hoffman has shrunk by 9% from the last survey, taken just over two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Assemb. Dede Scozzafava has shed another nine points, and slides all the way down to 20% and out of contention. In the last survey, Owens led Scozzafava 33-29%, with Hoffman at 23%.

The Siena poll was conducted 10/27-29 among 709 LVs. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.

While most eyes are on the GOV action in NJ and VA this final weekend, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (D) forced those eyes out west, as he surprised many and dropped out of the CA GOV race. Newsom: "With a young family and responsibilities at City Hall, I have found it impossible to commit the time required to complete this effort the way it needs to - and should be - done." So although AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) has yet to formally enter the race, he's now the likely Dem nominee.

NORTH BERGEN, N.J. -- After spending much of the NJ GOV race reporting on ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie's (R) shortcomings, the New York Times gave Gov. Jon Corzine (D) a headache 10/29 when it reported that he "may revisit his plan to lease the New Jersey Turnpike to raise cash."

NJers reacted immediately, flooding talk radio switchboards with angry calls. The Corzine camp spent the last two days vigorously denying the Times' characterization, but the damage may be done.

Christie has seized on the NYT story, incorporating it into his stump speech during a bus tour around North Jersey today.

While the Obama WH has declared war on Fox News Channel, the people who might like to take his job away from him in '12 can't seem get enough of the net.

Since Labor Day weekend, The Hotline has kept a tally of likely WH '12 GOPers as they appear on TV, and the figures are stark. GOPers appeared on Fox broadcast or FNC a whopping 73.3% of the time, more than double MSNBC, NBC, CNN, ABC and CBS combined. Moreover, except for Rep. Ron Paul's (R-TX) appearance 10/14 on MSNBC's "Ed Show," no GOPer has appeared on any evening MSNBC shows -- only "Morning Joe."

The numbers marks a stark contrast to this point in the '08 cycle -- in Sept./Oct. '05 -- when Fox/FNC appearances accounted for just 33.96% of TV appearances. Additionally, GOPers appeared on shows like MSNBC prime-time shows like "Hardball" and the now-defunct "Scarborough Country" (which was situated in the current "Rachel Maddow Show" time slot).

Possible GOP candidates included in this count are: MS Gov. Haley Barbour, House Min. Whip Eric Cantor, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Mike Pence (IN), ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (PA).

A BIG NOTE that impacts these numbers -- Gingrich, Santorum and Huckabee are paid FNC contributors. They often appear on FNC broadcasts to discuss news-of-the-day and, as a result, are difficult to book on other channels. Gingrich has been on a book tour, however, and has made appearances on other nets.

This list is not all-encompassing, but includes interviews on network evening news, primetime cable news, network and morning cable news shows and the big five Sunday shows. This count does not include appearances on Fox Business Channel, CNBC or appearances on the cable nets during the 9-5pmET hours.

Another possible change between the two cycles to consider: In '07-'08, Dems boycotted FNC debates, citing the ideological leanings of the net. For the entire '08 cycle, GOPers had no public issues with appearing on MSNBC debates, which were usually moderated by NBC's Brian Williams, the late Tim Russert and MSNBC's Chris Matthews -- prior to a "thrill going up" his leg. Since then, MSNBC has pushed Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow as the faces of the network, both of whom are geared toward liberal opinion programming.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Des Moines Register's Beaumont reports, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has "declined" an invitation to speak at the IA Family Policy Center's 11/21 fall fundraiser in Des Moines, after the group had publicly invited her this week. Palin turned down the offer, "citing long-scheduled plans to tour the country promoting her book, scheduled for release in stores" on 11/17.

Politico's Martin reported 10/29 that conservatives in the state were taken aback when they discovered that the Policy Center was trying to raise $100K to bring Palin in to speak; an unheard of request for any potential WH cand. The "privilege" of addressing the party's base in the first-in-the-nation caucus state is the ultimate payoff.

However, according to the group's press release, Palin "has asked to speak to the group another time."

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner and Obama '08 mgr. David Plouffe. The roundtable will feature author Jon Krakauer, NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and NBC's Andrea Mitchell.

Face the Nation hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).

This Week hosts WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett. The roundtable will feature National Journal's Ron Brownstein, ex-WH press sec. DeeDee Myers, ex-Bush counselor Ed Gillespie, the Rev. Al Sharpton and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts Rush Limbaugh, FNC's Carl Cameron and FNC's Major Garrett. The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment) House Min. Leader John Boehner, MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R), Dem strategist James Carville and GOP strategist Mary Matalin.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's trip to Dover AFB. "Evening News" led with the economy . "Nightly News" led with Obama's trip to Dover AFB.

The new House health care bill got mixed results from pols and pundits on TV 10/29 p.m.

House Min. Leader John Boehner: "It's 1,990 pages, Speaker Pelosi's health care bill is. It's going to take us a while to read it. So I'm hopeful that the American people will take the time to read this bill, as well, because it's nothing short of a complete government takeover of our health care system" ("On The Record," FNC, 10/29).

Ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC chair Howard Dean, on whether the current bill is the "best" Congress can do with health care: "It's not the best we can do, but it's a very good start. ... This is real reform. That's all I really care about, is real reform. People are going to have a chance to get into a different kind of a system that doesn't take huge profits out and put it in their pockets. ... I think this is going to work well. I think it's a great bill. I think the speaker has a lot of courage and I'm very, very pleased. And I think Senator Reid did a terrific job last week in the same thing" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/29).

Columnist S.E. Cupp: "It's longer than 'War and Peace.' It's longer than 'Atlas Shrugged.' And it's longer than 'Les Mis'" ("Hannity," FNC, 10/29).

After the jump, more House bill reax, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio talks about third parties and ME Gov. John Baldacci (D) defends gay marriage.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with Afghanistan.

Ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I) appeared on "Your World" to discuss the NJ GOV race 10/28 p.m.

Daggett, on whether he is a "spoiler": "That is a term I don't buy, because, in this, that implies that Democrats or Republicans own a certain number of votes, and someone is going to spoil things by taking them away from them. I'm attracting attention because people are angry about politics as usual in New Jersey. They are tired of both parties. They don't think that either one of them steps up to and addresses the issues that face the state. And people are turning to me because they are fed up, not because I am trying to spoil something with somebody else."

FNC's Cavuto: "You just came on like a barn fire."

Daggett, on whether he is hurting ex-U.S. atty Chris Christie (R): "The polls have shown that I am taking pretty much equally from both of them."

After the jump, more Daggett, WH donor visits and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) continues to spark ire and admiration

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) has a commanding, 18-point lead over state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D), according to a new Virginia Commonwealth Univ. poll that joins a growing chorus of other surveys showing McDonnell ahead by double digits.

Among LVs (including leaners), McDonnell leads Deeds, 54-36%, with 11% undecided. It is McDonnell's largest lead in a live poll during the campaign.

McDonnell has even opened up advantages among traditional Dem constituencies: He leads Deeds, 47-42% among women, and has a remarkable 54-38% lead in the northern part of the state.

The VCU poll surveyed 625 LVs from 10/21-25, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with Afghanistan.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) was a cable news lighting rod 10/27 p.m.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), on how many times Lieberman can "get away with spitting" in Dems' faces before they "say no more": "There is a long, long tradition of United States senators saying no until about five minutes before they say yes. As Harry Reid indicated, this debate is just starting"

Wyden, on whether it's "appropriate" for Pres. Obama to stay out of the discussion given that he might be able to "pressure" Lieberman: "The president is not at all removed from this debate. He and his team are very involved. He's picking his spots. ... What we're all going to do is put the focus where it ought to be, that's holding the insurance companies accountable" (MSNBC, 10/27).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), on Lieberman: "He tells me what he said publicly, and that is that given this proposal as he reads it, and that he would not vote to cut off debate, which is, as I mentioned, that critical vote. The final passage, they only need 51 votes. They need 60 to cut off debate and end the filibuster. That's what he is saying. And he is a man of honesty, integrity and one of the finest men I've ever known in my life" ("Hannity," FNC, 10/27).

After the jump, more on Lieberman, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has a dog in the NY-23 fight, and WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett is interviewed.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"Surprising euphoria."

That's how Rep. Joe Sestak (D-08) described Dems' general reaction to Sen. Arlen Specter's (D) decision last spring to switch parties.

"I try to put it from my own experience in the military, when someone's crossed the lines and come over," the retired Navy admiral and two-term House Dem said in an interview with The Hotline in his Longworth office on 10/23. "You know, 'he's a good Republican; he must be a good Democrat.'"

"World News" and "Evening News" led with the investigation into the plane overshooting Minneapolis, MN. "Nightly News" led with Afghanistan.

Pundits and pols discussed Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's state opt-out plan for health care reform on TV 10/26 p.m.

ABC's Stephanopoulos, on the possibility of the Dems losing Sen. Olympia Snowe's (R-ME) support: "The president was very skeptical of this move by Harry Reid for just this reason" ("World News," ABC, 10/26).

House Maj. Whip James Clyburn: "We can now say to our members, this fear that you had that we would be walking the plank on something that had no chance of being introduced into the Senate, passed in the Senate. Here is Senator Reid telling us he has 56 or 57 votes for this public option. All we have to do now is make sure we don't allow that 41 percent to overrule that 56 percent" ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 10/26).

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): "They are trying to get votes. They got themselves in a corner, and this is a dangerous time for the American people. They floated this big government idea. The public did not like it, so they are trying to repackage it. You can opt out of it if you do not like it" ("On The Record," FNC, 10/26).

NBC's K. O'Donnell: "For more liberal Democrats, this kind of public option, or any kind of public option, is considered a victory" ("Nightly News," NBC, 10/26).

After the jump, more Reid reax, the NJ GOV race and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich's take on the NY-23 special election.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

AG Martha Coakley (D), the frontrunner to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), emerged last p.m. from the campaign's first televised debate not only unscathed, but curiously unchallenged by her three rivals.

It was the clearest sign to date of the complex role gender plays in the race leading up to the 12/8 Dem primary, in which Coakley faces off against three competitors, all of them men.

The VA GOV race may be 11 days from being settled, but that hasn't stopped unnamed Obama admin. officials and nat'l strategists from doing an early post-mortem in the pages of the WaPo. Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) doesn't give much credence to anonymous sources, but he admits the Deeds camp has had its share of problems.

Still, he's quick to defend his fellow Dem from the accusation of having misplayed the Obama card. "You cannot use the same template as last year because of the high-energy stakes in the presidential race and Barack Obama's personal characteristics and everything else," Webb told On Call during a trip to Old Town Alexandria this afternoon. "My view is they're doing what they can with the template that they have to use this year."

State Sen. Creigh Deeds' (D) mistake wasn't that he went too negative against ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R), Webb said, but rather he allowed himself to be defined by his opponent. "I do believe that they could have been better at the beginning in terms of defining what his journey is -- he's got a great story to tell," Webb said. "It's not in the public consciousness in the way that it could have been. Once [voters] see what his journey is and what his style of governance has been, they're going to be very comfortable with him."

VA's senior sen. had crossed the Potomac to rally about 40 supporters at the Dems' Alexandria campaign office. Before he spoke, ex-Rep. Leslie Byrne (D-11) warmed up the mostly older crowd and reminded them to turn out 11/3. "If Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax do their job, and if Tidewater, Hampton Roads does their job, we're going to be calling Creigh Deeds the 71st governor of Virginia," she said.

About McDonnell, Byrne added, "he decided a long time ago that he was going to govern from the far, radical right."

After he was introduced, Webb picked up on that point. "I think we can legitimately say, 'who is this guy?'," he said. Turning to the race, Webb said it's tough getting "campaign weary" VAers to tune in before close to Election Day. "The typical voter really doesn't start focusing in until the last 10 days or so of the campaign," he said. "The more people get to know Creigh Deeds, the more people are going to gravitate toward him."

But does Deeds have enough time to get voters acquainted? "I hope so," Webb said afterward. "The more strongly Creigh Deeds defines himself over the next 10 or 11 days, the better off he'll be."

[SEAN J. MILLER]

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). The roundtable will feature PBS' Tavis Smiley, New Yorker's Jane Mayer, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough and Council on Foreign Relations' Dan Senor.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI).

This Week hosts Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO). The roundtable will feature Bloomberg's Al Hunt, conservative radio host Laura Ingraham, Atlanta Journal Constitution's Cynthia Tucker, Washington Post's George Will, and Center for American Progress' John Podesta.

Fox News Sunday hosts Afghan Pres. candidate Abdullah Abdullah, Sen. Carl Levin, (D-MI) Michigan, Sen. Jon Kyl, (R-AZ) U.S. Chamber of Commerce VP Bruce Josten, AHIP VP Mike Tuffin. The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, ex-WH press sec. Dana Perino and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Afghan Pres. candidate Abdullah Abdullah, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Dem strategist Donna Brazille, GOP strategist Ed Rollins, Ex-RNC Chair/ex-George W. Bush counselor Ed Gillespie and Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" led with the plane overshooting its Minneapolis destination. "Evening News" led with the drug cartel bust. "Nightly News" led with the plane overshooting its Minneapolis destination.

Pundits discussed Dick Cheney's latest criticism of Obama admin. policy on cable 10/22 p.m.

GOP strategist Mary Matalin, on whether the Bush admin. "sat on the recommendations of the military to deploy more troops" and "it took" Obama "to finally make a decision to send more troops": "Can you even say that with a straight face? ... It's completely untrue."

More Matalin: "What the chief of staff [Rahm Emanuel] said on Sunday on this network ... that there was no plan, they had to start from scratch. The Bush administration, in an unprecedented transition, handed them a plan. Again, the national security advisers said sit on the plan. They adopted the plan in March and they're still dithering. They've had the benefit of the consultations of the best minds in defense and foreign policy. They've had it for a year. It's time to make a decision" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/22).

Washington Post's Robinson, on what Cheney was trying to achieve: "Maybe he was just trying to make us all realize how much we missed him. It makes absolutely no sense. ... The idea that he could criticize anyone on Afghanistan strategy, and then suggest that, oh, well, the Obama team should have just taken the Bush administration wisdom about the place, well, they didn't have much wisdom about the place. Anyone with half a brain would have done their own assessment, since the Bush team, frankly, screwed it up" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/22).

After the jump, more Cheney reaction, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) on health care.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

A new Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos out this a.m. shows atty Bill Owens (D) leading Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R) 35-30%, with accountant Doug Hoffman (C) coming in third at 23%. Despite her second-place position, this may be the best news Scozzafava has had in days, particularly because polls have been floating around purportedly showing her sliding to third place.

The poll was conducted 10/19-21 among 600 LVs. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%.

In recent days, Scozzafava has faced the growing chorus of GOPers who have decided they're backing Hoffman. She's also released uninspiring fundraising numbers and has suffered a few campaign misteps.

Of course, Hoffman suffered his own setback 10/22, when he made it plainly clear to the Watertown Daily Times' ed board that he's not up-to-speed on local issues. If he truly is a threat to either side in this race, we're going to see this editorial on a TV ad.

Still, Owens looks like he's in the drivers' seat, as all he has to do is solidify his base in order to win. Dems already back him by a 60-16% margin, and with 16% of the vote still undecided, all he's got to do is bring those voters back home, and he will likely have enough support to win a plurality.

Among GOPers, Scozzafava takes 46% of the vote, while surrendering 27% to Hoffman. Owens takes a significant 18%. Indies favor Hoffman by a slight 35-32% margin over Hoffman, while Scozzafava lags with 22%. If Owens can continue to take a significant portion of these crucial voting blocs on election day, Scozzafava and Hoffman's chances are greatly diminished on 11/3.

(TIM SAHD)

The title of her book is "Going Rogue," and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) stays true to form today, as she announced on her Facebook page that she's endorsing accountant Doug Hoffman (C) in the NY-23 special election, and not the GOP's nominee, Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava.

Palin, in her endorsement:

Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of "blurring the lines" between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party's ticket.

Republicans and conservatives around the country are sending an important message to the Republican establishment in their outstanding grassroots support for Doug Hoffman: no more politics as usual.

Palin is the latest GOPer to back Hoffman, including Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN 06), Fred Thompson and ex-House Maj. Leader Dick Armey (R-TX), and continues Hoffman's momentum. Meanwhile, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) has earned a lot of gruff in recent days from conservatives for his endorsement of Scozzafava.

On another note, FEC numbers for the race were released in the race tonight, and Owens swept the field away. He raised over $500K, and had $128K in the bank for the final 2+ weeks of the campaign. Hoffman brought in $300K, including over $100K of his own cash, and had just over $70K CoH. As was widely expected, Scozzafava trailed the pack, bringing in $250K, and banking just $40K for the closing weeks.

(Tim Sahd)

A great read on NJ.com this a.m. about new census data that shows the uninsured are represented in Congress by some of health-care reform's biggest supporters ... and critics.

(And if you're not up for reading, at least check out the cool district-by-district graphic).

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the bailed out execs.' pay cuts.

Pundits and pols weighed in on 10/21 p.m. over the Obama admin. cutting the pay of bailed-out Wall Street execs.

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN): "I have a visceral reaction against the idea of anybody in Washington telling anybody at any level in the private sector what they ought to make or not make. The market ought to do that. And the sooner we get the government out of the private sector, out of running our companies, the better" ("Your World," FNC, 10/21).

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA): "What it may do, and I would welcome this, is drive them to give us the money back. We've already gotten much of that 7$700 billion back, and this will make it more likely we'll get it back" ("Rachel Maddow," MNSBC, 10/21).

Dem strategist James Carville: "Bravo to the government. Bravo" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/21).

After the jump, Wall Street execs. get a pay cut and Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) hopes Obama doesn't make an "enemies list."

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

... but were too busy to ask about health care can be found on WhoRunsGov's Health Care Reform Tracker. Our friends over there are trying to track and tally the stands of all 535 senators and House members by the end of next week.

Go team!

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with swine flu.

Pundits widely discussed friction between Pres. Obama's military and political advisers over Afghanistan 10/20 p.m.

Weekly Standard's Kristol, on differing statements from WH CoS Rahm Emanuel and Defense Sec. Robert Gates on Afghanistan: "The White House staff tried to hijack this decision, in my view, maybe with the president's blessing, maybe not, because they do not want President Obama to commit fully to the war in Afghanistan. It is very clear."

Kristol: "I believe there is a pretty big rift now between the White House staff and the Defense Department from top to bottom, civilian and military and most of the foreign policy professionals who don't think we can afford to make a half-baked commitment to Afghanistan or pull out. I think President Obama will overrule his White House staff and go with Secretary Gates and the uniform military. ... Suddenly a bunch of political guys in the White House are saying, 'Oh, the polls are a little shaky, let's send half the number of troops.' The military really thinks this is not the way to make policy" ("Special Report," FNC, 10/20).

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) : "I want to say that Senator John Kerry did an amazing job on this, standing with Karzai, talking to him, and I think making sure that the way forward is better than what has gone on in the past. ... I think the president is handling this just right, because he has already doubled the troops in Afghanistan. So, the question is, where do we go from here? ... We have to make sure that we are not sending too many troops, rather than training more Afghan troops, because the people in Afghanistan dislike the Taliban immensely."

More Boxer: "I think this president is listening to General McChrystal. I think he's listening to people up and down the chain of command, including, of course, those in civilian life, Secretary Gates, and Vice President Biden, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton. And I think that's appropriate" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/20).

After the jump, more on Obama's decision-making over Afghanistan.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" led with the new ABC-Washington Post poll. "Evening News" led with the Heene family controversy. "Nightly News" led with Pres. Obama's Manhattan fundraiser and Wall Street bonuses.

Pundits examined the FNC - WH controversy 10/19 p.m.

FNC's Hume: "It is a little hard to discern a strategy behind the White House campaign of criticism of Fox News unless it's simply this -- an attempt to quarantine FOX and thereby discourage other media outlets from following up stories that originate here." ("Special Report," FNC, 10/19).

Center for American Progress Pres./Obama WH transition co-chair/ex-Clinton WH CoS John Podesta: "I guess sometimes it just feels good to tell the truth. And maybe they just couldn't resist feeling good for just one moment" ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 10/19).

Weekly Standard's Hayes: "Axelrod goes on ABC News. He makes the argument that Fox is too ideological, and he makes a plea that "legitimate news organizations" like ABC News not follow FOX into sort of partisan journalism. And he makes the point in response to a question from the host, George Stephanopoulos, who was Bill Clinton's media hatchet man for years."

After the jump, more on FNC vs the WH, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) fights the power and pundits on Obama and Afghanistan.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

A few weeks ago, The Hotline reported the chances of seeing CNBC or MSNBC talent on FBN's "Imus in the Morning" are highly unlikely. According to the New York Observer's Felix Gillette, Don Imus is facing similar booking issues with CNN anchors.

At 6:06amET FBN's Imus teased: "Coming up ... Lou Dobbs from CNN."

And then at 6:37amET, the dam broke. Imus said: "I just got word on Friday that MSNBC and CNBC, particularly MSNBC, won't let anybody who works for them appear with me, because they're terrified they're gonna get their ass kicked. ... CNBC's already getting whooped, and we're in half the homes they are."

More Imus: "Of course, now I'm irritated. And then Lou Dobbs from CNN who has been on with us for years ... so now he can't appear. He was scheduled to be on in about an hour, now CNN tells him he can't appear. ... With the exception of Jack Jacobs, there isn't anybody at any of these places -- we weren't booking them because they were getting us big ratings, we booked these people because I like him. And it's just unfortunate that Lou Dobbs has no cajones."

Imus asked: "Why doesn't he just say 'Stick it?'"

Imus sidekick Bernard McGuirk answered: "He's got so many problems with that network. This is just one that he doesn't need right now."

Imus retorted: "One of his issues is he has no balls."

Get 'em while they're red hot!

Which Senate candidates raised the most in the 3rdQ? Which ones spent the most? And who are the biggest cash hogs with the largest warchests? Learn all this and more, by clicking here! [QUINN MCCORD]

It's not often that a plum ambassadorship goes to someone who isn't a career foreign service officer or a big bucks campaign contributor, but Pres. Obama has nominated Anne Slaughter Andrew to be the ambassador to the Republic of Costa Rica.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett, Center for American Progress Pres./Obama WH transition co-chair/ex-Clinton WH CoS John Podesta and CA First Lady Maria Shriver.
Face the Nation hosts WH Cos Rahm Emanuel, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
This Week hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod. The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan, Washington Post's E.J. Dionne, ABC's Jake Tapper and New York Times' Paul Krugman.
Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), Sen. John Thune (R-SC), Bush adviser Karl Rove, ex-DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hum, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.
State of the Union hosts WH CoS Rahm Emanuel, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Dem strategist Donna Brazile, ex-Educ. Sec. Bill Bennett (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the Falcon Heene story.

With the health care legislation moving to the Senate floor, filibuster talk emerged onto that airwaves 10/15 p.m.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), on whether there's been discussion among Dems of "crossing over and filibustering" reform with GOPers: "I don't think there's been that discussion because people are very focused on getting something done here and getting competition. And ... there are different interpretations of what the public option could look like in the Senate. ... I don't necessarily view this as a bad thing. There's a difference between the Schumer version and the Rockefeller version. But the bottom line is: Democrats in the Senate want a bill" ("Rachel Maddow Show," MSNBC, 10/15).

New Yorker's Hertzberg: "The Democrats made a big mistake back then when they didn't take the dare and just say, OK, nuclear option, no more filibusters" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 10/15).

After the jump, commentary on Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and the fallout from the Rush Limbaugh failed bid for the St. Louis Rams.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

A quick postscript to an issue we explored last week: the varying poll performance of NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg based on the party label ascribed to the Dem-cum-GOPer-cum-indie by various pollsters.

Last week, automated pollster SurveyUSA conducted a poll for WABC-TV that showed "Republican Mike Bloomberg" leading "Democrat Bill Thompson" by eight points, 51-43%. It was the closest of any public poll conducted since Thompson captured his party's nod in the primary.

This week, SurveyUSA released another poll. This one showed Bloomberg skyrocketing to a 17-point lead, 55-38%.

Bloomberg mentioned both polls today in an interview with the Daily News' ed board. "There's a [Survey]USA poll out today that had us up 15 [sic] percent; a week ago it had us up 8 percent," Bloomberg said, according to the News' Liz Benjamin. "I don't know how they can jump around so much."

The Thompson camp thinks it knows, however, telling the News that the new poll was "fatally flawed" because "it doesn't make any reference to party affiliation, unlike every other poll. The fact of the matter is New York City holds partisan elections. Each candidate on the ballot is identified by a party. This poll does not recognize that."

SurveyUSA editor Jay Leve addressed the discrepancy, telling On Call on 10/14 that, in the previous poll, "instead of saying that Bloomberg's name would appear on the Republican line, we incorrectly identified Bloomberg as a Republican."

"In attempting to correct the reference" for the new poll, Leve said, "an employee removed both Bloomberg's and Thompson's party label."

Bloomberg may be feigning ignorance when he says he doesn't know how the SUSA poll "can jump around so much" because to address the methodological difference between the polls only reinforces the fact that his name will appear on the GOP ballot line -- which seems to at least contribute to a portion of the nine-point difference observed by the same pollster in a week's time.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

While many GOPers have kept their distance from the Tea Party movement, ex-FL state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) is appealing to local activists in his SEN bid. While it might give him a boost in the primary fight over Gov. Charlie Crist (R), his ties to the tea parties could cost him in the general. In the video above, Rubio talks about the movement. And FreedomWorks, which has endorsed Rubio, talks about why the GOP will come around to embracing those feisty fiscal conservatives.

(THERESA POULSON)

The growing GOP concern over Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava's (R) chances in this Upstate NY special election appears to be well-founded. A new Siena College poll, conducted 10/11-13 of 617 LVs, shows atty Bill Owens (D) opening up a 33-29% lead over Scozzafava. Meanwhile, accountant Doug Hoffman's (C) jump to 23% means he's an even bigger factor in this race. The poll had a 3.9% margin of error.

In Siena's last poll, conducted two weeks ago, Scozzafava had a 35-28% lead. Hoffman trailed with 16%. Since then, Scozzafava has seen her support drop 9% among Dems, 7% among GOPers, and 2% among indies. Interestingly, Owens now takes a higher %age of GOP votes (19%) than Scozzafava takes among Dems (17%).

Also, the pummeling Scozzafava has taken from all sides (the DCCC, Club for Growth and Hoffman) appears to be taking its toll. Her unfav rating jumped 12% in just two weeks, while her fav rose just four. Meanwhile, Hoffman has seen his unfavs stay rather steady, and Owens has seen both his fav and unfav numbers jump at the same rate.

These results bear out the GOP angst that has been seen in recent stories about Scozzafava's bid -- that she's running low on cash, she's not running much advertising, she's not conservative enough for some House GOPers. Without some serious change in direction, these poll trends will be very difficult to turn around in time for the 11/3 election -- which is less than three weeks away.

[TIM SAHD]

"World News" led with the Dow Jones breaking 10,000 and featured Sec/State Hillary Clinton. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the Dow Jones breaking 10,000.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) went on "Hannity" 10/14 p.m. to discuss Pres. Obama's policies.

Romney, on the MA universal coverage plan: "The plan we put in place is a very good plan. And even though elements that I vetoed were overridden, it's still working pretty well. It's not perfect. But it's a big advance over what we have before. Because basically now all of our citizens in Massachusetts are insured, 98 percent are insured."

Romney, on the NJ gov race: "You've got Jon Corzine spending tens of millions of dollars of his own money, money made on Wall Street, by the way, the very street that a lot of people believe got us into the financial difficulty we're in. He's using that money ... to hold on to his job in New Jersey."

Romney, on Blue Dogs: "I think Blue Dog Democrats in Washington say, 'You know what? The president's agenda is getting us in trouble,' and they're going to listen to the people, instead of the leadership of the party."

After the jump, more Romney, Clinton sits down for an interview, and Rush Limbaugh loses his bid to be an NFL owner.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) stopped by the Watergate this p.m. to meet with The Hotline and he left the impression he's already looking past the three-way SEN primary he faces in Feb. '10 and toward a likely match-up against Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10).

"To have all the institutional support, to have better poll numbers, better name recognition and a significant money advantage in a primary that's right around the corner, we are just in a great, great place," Giannoulias told On Call.

One week from tonight, a collection of quasi-talented (and quite possibly deluded) media-types will join together to "sing" for charity. "Hosted by the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) Mid-Atlantic Chapter, with part of the proceeds benefiting Mr. Holland's Opus Foundation (mhopus.org), Karaoke in the Capital is billed as one night where Democrats, Republicans and the media who cover them can unite, get along, and work together for a good cause."

For more info on the time and location, and how to get tickets, go to karaokeinthecapital.com.

For a list of performers, click here.

Over the next 20 days, ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) is traveling to NJ communities deemed "hardest hit" by "Corzine taxes." But as the ex-prosecutor visits places like Edison, Belleville, New Brunswick and Kearny, it might be his past trips to Orlando, Boston, Las Vegas and London that continue to make news.

The Corzine camp forwarded On Call copies of Christie's expense reports -- which it obtained through a FOIA request -- for his trips to those aforementioned locales. For good measure, Corzine aides included the reports of ex-acting first assistant U.S. Atty Michele Brown, who accompanied Christie on some of his globetrotting. The Corzine camp characterizes these trips as self-indulgence on taxpayers' money, but here's a rough break down, including links to the PDFs of the reports:

Christie:

Orlando-Disney World (2/26/06-3/1/06): $783

Chicago-Indianapolis-Boston (10/14-10/17/07): $2.8K

Las Vegas (1/3-1/5/08): $1.3K

London (8/3-8/8/08): $4.7K

Brown:

Chicago-Indianapolis-Boston (10/14-10/17/07): $1.7K

Las Vegas (1/3-1/5/08): $1.3K

London (8/3-8/8/08): $4.1K

The Christie camp said it is preparing a statement on the reports. Earlier, Christie told the AP that he stayed in more expensive hotels "only when cheaper ones weren't available."

"We always went for government rates first," he said. "I don't think there were a lot of stays in five-star hotels over seven years."

"World News" led with the health care bill passing the Sen. Finance Cmte and featured Sen. Olympia Snowe and Afghan Pres. Hamid Karzai. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the health care bill passing the Sen. Finance Cmte.

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) appeared on "World News," 10/13 p.m.

Snowe, on whether one supportive GOPer means bipartisanship: "Well, obviously not sufficient. We need to have more, we need to have support of the Democratic centrists, for example, who also can play a very pivotal role in this regard. .... If we can work continuously together looking at the issues having an honest discussion about the issues and what works what doesn't work, that's what it's going to take."

More Snowe: "For so long, the art of legislating has been lost here in Congress and it's all about just moving it along on the fast track, and unfortunately, the big issues have been set aside."

Snowe, on what would cause her to "pull back": "That would mean significant costs are added to the bill or significant taxes. If some issues aren't addressed such as affordability, we still have to work on that issue making sure Americans have affordable health plans. They do under this legislation, but we need to do more and to be certain of that."

After the jump, more Snowe, reactions to the Sen. Finance Cmte vote and the fixation with ME's sr. senator.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

After the '98 candidate debates got underway in MN's GOV race, polling showed Jesse Ventura's (Ref) numbers rising in a near straight line. More than 10 years later, and several states to the east, the same could be said for another Indie candidate. Ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I) turned in a calibrated, above-the-fray performance during the first NJ GOV debate earlier this month. Since then, his campaign has gained some momentum, culminating in the endorsement last weekend by NJ's largest daily newspaper, the Newark Star-Ledger.

***A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted 10/7-12, shows Daggett at 14%, ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) with 41%, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 40% and 5% undecided. As an historical comparison, in an Oct.10-13, '98 poll by the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Ventura was at 15%, AG Hubert "Skip" Humphrey III (D) had 44% and St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R) 31%, with 10% undecided. Some 20 days later, Ventura won with 37% of the vote.***

As in the debate, Daggett's performance in the Star-Ledger's edit board room that day won him the endorsement, says ed. page editor John Farmer. Or rather, his two days' performance. "He was so good we brought him back a second time," Farmer told On Call. "We're not pulling this guy out of a hat; he came to our editorial board meeting with a growing reputation."

"The mandarins," added Farmer, who spent 27 years as the paper's nat'l political correspondent, "have got to be signaled the party is over. Daggett was the perfect vehicle for sending this message."

***Still, the ed board saw Christie as the frontrunner in the race, Farmer said. "He came in, I think, the clear favorite." That said, the Christie camp regarded the paper's columnists and editorial writers as highly critical of their candidate.***

"Many expected this endorsement to go to Corzine," a Christie adviser said. For its part, the Corzine camp pointed back in time to '05, when the then-senator was snubbed, and claimed the gov. had no expectation of receiving the paper's nod.

In any case, Christie was facing a jury that could have awarded him some momentum. Since July, when mass corruption arrests made nat'l headlines, he's had to defend himself against a drum beat of Dem attacks. Unfortunately for the ex-prosecutor, the editors and columnists didn't get the answers they were looking for that day. "Christie seems to have been advised by his people to play it safe," Farmer remarked. Moreover, the "arithmetic" on his plan to cut taxes and reinstate property tax rebates "didn't add up," Farmer said, "and I think that hurt his credibility."

Corzine duly made an appearance, but the board concluded he hadn't done enough to tame corruption. Farmer called him the "chaplain on a pirate ship."

Looking ahead to 11/3, Farmer won't speculate on Daggett's chances. Regardless of whether he wins, he said. "I felt the paper could be proud of this." But even more than a feel good factor, should Daggett follow Ventura's example, this endorsement could be another declaration of relevance from the Old Media.

[SEAN J. MILLER]

The Miami Herald is reporting that Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL 19) will announce tomorrow that he's resigning his seat for another job. Some speculated early in Pres. Obama's term that Wexler would land somewhere in the admin., but it appears that's not his likely landing spot.

While no party likes defending an open seat, Wexler's CD is one that should provide no headaches for Dems. Obama and John Kerry each won it with 66% of the vote, and Wexler has never taken less than 66%. Even last year, when questions arose about his residency, he still took 66%.

If Wexler does indeed resign tomorrow, Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will call a special election. The South Florida Sun-Sentinel lists state Sens. Ted Deutch (D) and Jeremy Ring (D) as potential candidates in a special election, although the field in this heavily Dem CD is likely to be large.

[TIM SAHD]

Apparently there's a reason Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) wore blue today.

"World News" led with health care. "Evening News" led with health care. "Nightly News" led with swine flu and featured an interview with Sec/State Hillary Clinton.

Discussion about WH comm. dir. Anita Dunn taking on FNC lit up the cable airwaves 10/12 p.m.

Syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer, on FNC: "We don't have anchors here at Fox who get a thrill up their leg in the middle of an Obama speech. I don't recall it ever having happened, at least while I was on the set" ("Special Report," FNC, 10/12).

New York Daily News' Louis: "When Fox goes and styles itself as the voice of the opposition, or you see them sort of working with this political pact which put on these 9/12 parties, and you see a Fox producer whipping up the crowds, when you see them that deeply into partisanship ... if that's how they choose to build the audience ... you don't necessary have to play along with that. ... They're the voice of the opposition, and that's how they should be treated" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/12).

Media Matters' Eric Burns, on FNC's "goal to destroy this presidency": "That's their goal. They have set it. You saw it at the top of the clip. And I think that that's what we are dealing with. And so Anita Dunn is absolutely right to call them out for that" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/12).

After the jump, more Dunn blowback, Clinton on whether she'll run for POTUS again, and Ex-Hewlett Packard CEO/McCain Victory '08 chair Carly Fiorina (R) on a Sen. run.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

A new Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal contains more worrisome news for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), as well as his son, GOV candidate/Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D).

Speaking for an "ill-served and angry electorate," the Newark Star-Ledger, NJ's largest newspaper, endorsed ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I) for GOV in an editorial published online 10/10. "Daggett's election would send shock waves through New Jersey's ossified political system," the ed board wrote, "and, we believe, provide a start in a new direction."

The ed board singled out ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) for "his sketchy budget plans and his relative lack of familiarity with the details of state government." Gov. Jon Corzine (D), it added, "is an eminently decent and likable man, and not without achievement. ... But his shortcomings as a leader are serious." Still, the endorsement of Daggett was more "a repudiation of the parties they represent" than a personal "rejection" of the two major party candidates. This may serve as little consolation to Corzine, who saw the paper's '05 endorsement go to his GOP opponent, '02 nominee/'05 GOV nominee Doug Forrester (R).

In an email to supporters, the Daggett camp called the endorsement a "vote of confidence," and then asked for contributions.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

National Journal's Stone is reporting on "Under The Influence" that a federal grand jury probing possible criminal conflicts of interest involving former Interior Sec. Gale Norton's official and private dealings with Royal Dutch Shell has issued subpoenas to both Norton and Shell.

As news of Pres. Obama's surprise Nobel Peace Prize win rocked the world this a.m., MA AG/SEN frontrunner Martha Coakley (D) headed to DC today for a meeting with the POTUS -- and an interview with On Call.

Speaking with On Call shortly before her 1 p.m. ET meeting, Coakley said she received an invitation 10/8 from the WH to take part in today's event. The topic was decidedly non-political: Regulatory reform and a new federal consumer financial protection agency.

Coakley told On Call that she was invited as part of a group of the country's AGs "who have taken the lead on predatory lending." Other AGs, all Dems, who will be joining today's WH meeting include Lisa Madigan of IL, Andrew Cuomo of NY and Roy Cooper of NC, Coakley said.

On the admin.'s proposed consumer agency, Coakley said she believes the POTUS is "exactly on the right track" in advocating for reform that's focused on consumers. Noting that she was "pleased" by the invitation, she praised Obama for "reaching out" and including her and the other AGs in today's discussions. Coakley, on the admin.: "This is a totally new approach to state attorneys general from a federal government that in the past has said, 'Don't call us, we'll call you.'"

Coakley said she's not planning to ask Obama to lend his support to her MA SEN bid. "I am absolutely here as attorney general," she said.

Still, a little face time with the POTUS can't hurt.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. Carl Levin (D-MA), Retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey; and ex-JCS Chair Gen. Richard Myers. The round table will feature: National Journal's Ron Brownstein, Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot, BBC's Katty Kay and Washington Post's Bob Woodward.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Washington Post's David Ignatius, and Brookings Institution nat'l security expert Michael O'Hanlon.

This Week hosts Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Rep. James McGovern (D-MA) and Ret. Gen. Jim Keane. The roundtable will feature Dem strategist Donna Brazile, Huffington Post's Arianna Huffington, GOP strategist Nicolle Wallace and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) Moody's economist Mark Zandi,and NTSB chair Deborah Hersman. The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, Fortune's Nina Easton, Liz Cheney and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), ex-Educ. Sec. Bill Bennett, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"I swear to God, Max, if I lose my seat because of your health-care bill, you will NEVER hear the end of it. Do you understand me?"

"World News" led with the moon bomb. "Evening News" led with Afghanistan. "Nightly News" led with cancer-causing agents at Camp Lejeune.

Pundits discussed the news that the WH press shop is getting militant with the media on the "Situation Room" 10/8 p.m.

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "It's a very risky strategy. It's not one that I would advocate. I understand why Anita Dunn, for whom I have a great deal of respect, and her colleagues in this White House are angry and frustrated by some of the coverage they have gotten. It's gotten pretty contentious out there, as you know, and part of that is showing up in cable news and elsewhere. So I understand why they are frustrated."

More Gergen: "If you're going to get very personal against the media, you are going to find that the animosities are just going to deepen and you're going to find that you sort of almost draw viewers and readers to the people you are attacking. You build them up in some ways. You give them stature."

Gergen: "If you are going to get into this kind of thing, the press always has the last barrel of ink, it has long been said."

After the jump, more on the new WH press shop strategy, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) on the TX GOP climate.

Pres. Obama won the Nobel Prize this a.m., becoming the third sitting POTUS to be awarded the distinction.

Norwegian Nobel Cmte Chair Thorbjorn Jagland told CNN this a.m. the five-member cmte's decision was unanimous. Jagland, on Obama: "We want to promote what he is standing for and what he has already done."

Reax among pundits this a.m. ranged from surprise and skepticism to hope that the award would further America's global interests.

On "Morning Joe," MSNBC's Scarborough asked: "Can you ever think of a Nobel Peace Prize winner that has won this award for doing less than this president?"

Time's Halperin responded: "I think the best thing you can say about this is it's premature."

FNC's Kilmeade noted that Obama was awarded the prize less than nine months into his presidency, but noted: "If it helps America's foreign policy and interests, it's great news. It's extraordinary. This is a major news event that we're not going to forget any time soon."

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), in an appearance on "Morning Joe": "What a morning to be on television. We're blowing up particles on the moon, and the president wins the Nobel Peace Prize. What a country."

WH senior adviser David Axelrod: "It's an honor. It's nothing that anyone expected, certainly nothing the president sought. I think that he's less interested in individual honors -- and this certainly is one -- than in advancing the causes that were cited by the Nobel committee."

Speaking with Jagland shortly after the prize was announced, CNN's Mann asked whether a POTUS who is leading two wars could really be considered the world's most distinguished peacemaker.

Jagland responded: "We do want to emphasize that there is a need now for strengthening diplomacy, for resolving conflict. And that's what Barack Obama is trying to do."

"One could hope that this would help with resolving all those conflicts," he added.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

It's not the greatest of weeks to be a frontrunner in the FL SEN race.

First, Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) rival for the GOP nod, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), disclosed 10/6 that he raked in a competitive $1M in the 3rdQ.

Now, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17) has his own primary challenger to worry about -- ex-Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre (D), who formally launched his bid 10/7 a.m.

In a phone interview 10/7 p.m., Ferre told On Call that the remarks of DSCC Chair Bob Menendez last week -- in which Menendez seemingly discounted FL as a pick-up opportunity for Dems -- were the "decisive factor" in his choice to enter the race. Ferre: "You can't write off Florida!"

Although a spokesperson quickly backtracked on Menendez's comments, Ferre -- who is 74 years old and served as mayor of Miami from '73 to '85 -- said he has spoken to three or four "intermediaries" who confirmed that the DSCC chair is doubtful of Meek's chances.

Ferre, on Menendez: "I'm sure they have to say he made a mistake because they don't want to embarrass anybody. But the fact is, that's how he feels. The rumor was all over. ... Bob has been saying that to people all over the country for the last three weeks."

Ferre, who has been out of politics since '96, said he's basing his candidacy on FL's need for a "bold voice" who can ensure the state gets its "fair share from Washington." While he expressed pessimism over Meek's chances of winning in either the primary or the general, he declined to go into specifics. Ferre, asked why he thinks Meek is a weak candidate: "I don't say that. I think the polls say that. ... There are several polls that definitely show that Kendrick Meek cannot win."

Meek spokesperson Adam Sharon dismissed Ferre's claim, noting that Bill Clinton, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) will be headlining a fundraiser for Meek 10/13.

Sharon: "I think that sends a message to everyone as far as where the DSCC is on this race." Sharon added that Menendez's $5K contribution from his PAC to Meek's bid in the 3rdQ "also speaks volumes" about his support.

Asked how Ferre's candidacy changes the race, Sharon said, "Our approach has basically been what it's been. ... Our focus is on defeating whichever Republican candidate emerges from that primary."

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

Update: DSCC spokesperson Eric Schultz also pushed back on the notion that Dems are writing off FL, noting that as he previously told The Hill, Menendez "misspoke" in last week's briefing. Schultz said that Menendez and the DSCC have been "very impressed" with Meek's candidacy, pointing to Meek's "full-scale" campaign operation and his "impressive fundraising" as proof that he's "putting all the pieces in place." Schultz, on Meek: "He's doing everything right."

Ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) told On Call this a.m. that he found out about Karl Rove's $1K donation to his campaign the same way the rest of us did: by reading about it on the Internet.

"I read it from Chuck Todd," Rubio said in a phone interview this a.m., referring to a 10/5 report by NBC's Todd confirming that Rove made an online donation to Rubio's FL SEN bid.

Rubio said he has not spoken with Rove since Rove left the WH, but he's "sure" they'll speak with each other "at some point."

Rubio: "I have a lot of respect for Karl Rove's political knowledge. And I don't think Karl Rove is in the business of throwing away money."

Rubio said he talks with ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R) "from time to time," but that the two haven't talked in detail about the campaign. He said he does not expect Bush to publicly endorse him. Rubio: "I respect the position he's in at this stage."

On the significance of his landslide $1M fundraising haul in the 3rdQ -- which Washington Post's Cillizza dubbed 10/6 "the most important number in politics today" -- Rubio said the number "reaffirmed to people around the country" that his campaign has "emerged beyond the viability question."

"World News" led with violence in Chicago schools. "Evening News" led with Pres. Obama's Afghan strategy. "Nightly News" led with a look back since the first invasion into Afghanistan.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) addressed Afghanistan during an appearance on "LKL" 10/7 p.m.

McCain: "General McChrystal and General Petraeus Admiral Mullen have come up with a strategy that will succeed. We need to act and we need to act with all deliberate speed. ... These generals have a track record of success, when many others, including the present president, predicted that it would fail. And so did the vice president. And so did the secretary of State. And so did the national security adviser."

McCain, on whether a decision should have been made "yesterday": "I don't think that the president should be rushed in. I think the appropriate phrase would be deliberate speed, because we have 68,000 over there. As you well know and Americans well know, we just lost 10 very tragically. And the situation continues to deteriorate. It calls for action."

McCain, on whether McChrystal should have "spoken out" publicly about the need for a troop increase: "I think so, given the situation. First of all, he had been invited to and had been cleared to make the speech in London that he made. ... I think that General McChrystal would have rather remained quiet on this. I think he was answering a question. I know he respects the chain of command and respects the authority of the president."

After the jump, more on Afghanistan and reax to the Cong. Budget Office estimates of the Baucus bill.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Des Moines Register's Beaumont reports, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is heading to IA on 11/7 to headline the state GOP's fall fundraiser -- his first visit of the cycle to the leadoff caucus state.

IA GOP exec. dir. Jeff Boeynik told the Register: "We are proud to announce that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has agreed to headline our Republican fall event. ... Gov. Pawlenty is the kind of leader we're looking for."

The fall fundraiser takes the place of what has traditionally been called the Ronald Reagan dinner, and is "aimed at bringing out rank-and-file" GOPers. The ticket price for what's being called "Leadership for Iowa" is $25 "instead of the higher prices the Reagan dinner has typically fetched."

The announcement comes in the wake of Pawlenty launching a new PAC, Freedom First, and unveiling a new team of nat'l political advisers. Among the advisers are two IA natives: ex-Bush admin. WH pol. dir. Sara Taylor and Terry Nelson, who managed Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) WH '08 bid before he left that post in mid-summer '07 amid a campaign overhaul. Pawlenty's IA announcement also comes on the heels of Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) speculating that Pawlenty's proximity to IA will be an advantage in the '12 caucuses.

Also worth noting: In '05, it was now-ex-Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) who keynoted the IA GOP's Ronald Reagan Dinner in Des Moines.

"World News" led with Afghanistan. "Evening News" led with Afghanistan and featured Sec/State Hillary Clinton. "Nightly News" led with swine flu.

Pols and pundits were abuzz about Afghanistan 10/6 p.m.

USA Today's Page, on Pres. Obama's Hill support: "It's like Backwards Day at the White House, because it was the Republicans who were kind of cheering him on and it was Democrats who were raising the most serious concerns about whether we are on the right course in Afghanistan" ("NewsHour," PBS, 10/6).

Politico's Simon, on whether Obama can say no to McChrystal's request: "It is very hard to say no to generals when generals go public and say, we need the troops. That`s not what a commander in chief or any politician wants to hear, because basically you`re over-ruling a general, and some people in America have an automatic negative reaction to that" ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 10/6).

House Min. Whip Eric Cantor (R), on whether the GOPers in the room urged support for McChrystal's report: "It is a fair assessment right now that Republicans are committed to supporting this president if he says, 'Yes, I will support our commanders on the ground" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/6).

After the jump, more on Afghanistan and Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman defends her voting record, or lack thereof.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

More than two years ago, when he was mulling an indie WH '08 run, NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg ceremoniously severed the GOP ties he used to win two elections to City Hall and changed his voter registration to unaffiliated.

But his WH bid never really got off the ground, and after convincing the City Council to overturn a voter-ratified term limits law, Bloomberg announced he would seek a third term as mayor of America's largest city.

There was one problem: Having jettisoned his GOP affiliation, under which party's banner would he run? Would even the city's richest resident be able to win election without appearing on one of the top two party lines on the Nov. ballot? No third-party candidate has won a mayoral election in the city since John Lindsay overcame a snow-removal boondoggle to win re-election on the Liberal-Fusion line in '69.

In a week wherein communication skills became central to the VA GOV campaign, tonight's TV "debate" (read: back-to-back taped interviews) between ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) and state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) turned out to be more about style than substance.

Deeds' unpolished delivery looked unconvincing juxtaposed with the smooth, calm approach of his opponent. In one exchange, after Deeds launched into a critique of McDonnell -- "the thesis is relevant in this race" -- ABC 7's Leon Harris asked him, "shouldn't Virginians be hearing more about what your vision is as opposed to what he wrote 20 years ago?"

After inviting Harris on the trail with him, Deeds said, "our, our advertising strategy, um, has kind of a mixture of comparative ads that, that, um, do contrast our records, because I think the records are relevant ..." Deeds then explained he was behind in recent polls because he had to stay "hunkered down" after the primary raising money. Moreover, the GOP's attack ads running during the commercial breaks, which featured footage of Deeds struggling to get his message across about taxes and scolding a "young lady" in the process, damningly complimented the Dem's performance.

Earlier this week, Deeds adviser Mo Elleithee told reporters on a conf call, "if you're looking for someone that's polished, Creigh's probably not the first person that comes to mind." But he's honest, authentic and straightforward, Elleithee continued, and "it's that approach that's going to resonate with people at the end of the day."

That remains to be seen.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

"World News" led with swine flu vaccine. "Evening News" led with Afghanistan. "Nightly News" led with swine flu vaccine.

Pols and pundits alike examined the perception of an Obama admin. rift with Gen. Stanley McChrystal 10/5 p.m.

Ex-WH candidate Wes Clark was interviewed on the "O'Reilly Factor" 10/5 p.m.

Clark: "I'll tell you, when the commander on the ground says he needs more troops, you better listen."

Clark, on what he would do: "I would say the same thing that Jim Jones said. This is not about troops. It's about strategy. You got to get the strategy right. Then you got to get the American people behind it. But before you can go out and get the American people behind it, you have to have reviewed it. ... I think we should be comforted by the fact that he's going to take a week of tentative deliberations" (FNC, 10/5).

CNN's Borger, on the McChrystal/admin. rift: "He's [McChrystal] gotten himself in the middle of a huge political situation. He's gotten apparently reprimanded by the president. He has said publicly in a Q&A that the vice president's position would lead to chaos in Afghanistan. Isn't that getting a little too political for a general?" ("Situation Room," 10/5).

After the jump, more on McChrystal, Sen. John Ensign's (R-NV) effect on NV politics and NE Gov. Dave Heineman (R) pressures the NE delegation

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

BET co-founder Sheila Johnson issued an e-mail apology for her stuttering comment late 10/5 p.m., the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports. "Two weeks ago, I made reference to Creigh Deeds' inability to clearly communicate effective solutions to the serious problems facing Virginia," she said. "I shouldn't have done it in the manner in which I did and for that, I apologize for any offense he, or others, may have taken."

Johnson's apology should stop the bleeding from her comments. But some damage may already have been done to McDonnell, who likely had hoped to use Johnson as a high-profile closer in the campaign's final weeks.

A Creigh Deeds campaign tracker recently filmed BET co-founder Sheila Johnson parodying Deeds' halting speaking style during an event with ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R). The Deeds camp subsequently released the video to Dem-aligned blogs and then held a conf call with reporters today to tee off on what it called an attempt by the McDonnell camp to "openly" mock VAers who stutter. These comments, Deeds adviser Mo Elleithee said, are "offensive to so many people."

"I think they're offensive to a lot of Virginians, who truly do suffer from speech impediments, and the fact that they would be so cavalier about it is disappointing and I think outrageous to a lot of people," Elleithee said. The campaign, he added, had received a lot of phone calls from "disability advocates" who were "outraged by these comments."

Elleithee called on the McDonnell camp to "do the right thing" and "apologize."

Pressed later in the call about whether Deeds actually has a speech impediment or not, the campaign admitted their candidate has never sought "medical attention" for his condition.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

Chicago resident and conservative blogger Emily Marie Zanotti made waves last week when her announcement to a room of conservatives that Chicago had lost its bid for the '16 Summer Olympics was met with rousing applause. NationalJournal.com, which captured the moment on video, caught up with Zanotti to talk about the criticism surrounding the right-wing glee.

Karl Rove has made a $1K contribution to the campaign of ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), MSNBC's Todd reports.

Alone, Rove's donation would be a statement in itself. But coupled with ex-Gov. Jeb Bush's (R) praise for Rubio two weeks ago despite his vow to stay out of the race, could it be a sign that Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) problems among conservatives are now too big to ignore?

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

While RNC chair Michael Steele said today he was "disappointed" that the International Olympic Committee hadn't picked Chicago to host the 2016 Summer Olympics, conservatives in Arlington, VA, seemed not to share that sentiment.

During the Americans For Prosperity's "Defending the American Dream Summit," blogger Emily Marie Zanotti of American Princess interrupted a discussion about engaging the right online to announce that Chicago was out of the running -- and the room erupted in applause.

"If anyone cares, Chicago is out," Zanotti said. When the crowd asked what happened, she said, "The very first vote, they did not have any chance at even negotiating. They were out on the first vote." That news was met with more cheers and high-fives.

(Theresa Poulson)

For Fox Business Channel correspondent Connell McShane, the coming of "Imus in the Morning" to his net 10/5 "a chance for us to reintroduce ourselves." McShane talked to The Hotline about how the radio simulcast will fit into the FBN world.

The radio show, which will be a simulcast from 6am-9amET on weekdays, seems like an odd fit for FBN, as it has traditionally been a politically -- not business -- oriented program.

But FBN has gotten creative -- and technical -- to keep business news hungry viewers in the loop. McConnell and his FBN colleagues, Jenna Lee and Ashley Webster, will rotate each hour of Imus and "work in and out of the show" newsbreaks. They two anchors not appearing on "Imus" each hour will continue to cover business news on a webcast on www.foxbusiness.com while "Imus" is on the air.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts UN Amb. Susan Rice, New York Times' David Brooks, Washinton Post's E.J. Dionne, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow and GOP strategist Mike Murphy.

Face the Nation hosts NSA James Jones, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), ex-CENTCOMM chief Ret. Gen. Anthony Zinni and Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO).

This Week hosts ex-Fed chair Alan Greenspan, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) The round table will feature: ABC's Cokie Roberts, Washington Post's George Will, GOP strategist Matthew Dowd, and The Nation's Katrina Vanden Heuvel.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) and Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA. The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts NSA James Jones, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), GOP strategist Mary Matalin and Dem strategist James Carville (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the South Pacific and Indonesian earthquakes.

New York Times' Lipton appeared on the "Rachel Maddow Show" 10/1 p.m. to discuss his scoop.

MSNBC's Maddow: "In terms of potential criminal liability and ethics liability here though, it's not so much a question of what Senator Ensign did at Doug Hampton's request, isn't it simply a matter that Doug Hampton was lobbying John Ensign at a time when he really was not allowed to be doing so?"

Lipton: "Well, clearly, the rules prohibit one year of lobbying communication with intent to influence, and that is the obligation of Doug Hampton. ... Whether or not that's a strict violation of law is up to others to decide. The question for the senator is whether or not he knew of it, he participated in ... perhaps in a proper lobbying and that then becomes a separate issue. So the culpability is different for each."

Lipton, on whether he felt he was "able to conclusively document" that Ensign did get Hampton a job: "There's no question that the senator made a series of telephone calls. We spoke with a half a dozen executives at major firms in the state of Nevada that received these phone calls and each of them essentially recalled similarly what the senator said, 'I have to say, he's coming back to the state. He's a good guy, would you talk to him?'"

After the jump, more Ensign, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and CA. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger(R) are interviewed.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

The cover of Sarah Palin's new book, "Going Rogue" ...

... and the "40-Year-Old Virgin"?

In the first debate between the three major NJ GOV candidates tonight, ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) failed to hit the "home run" some analysts said he needed with Gov. Jon Corzine (D) gaining ground in the latest polls. Instead, Christie found himself fighting against a Dem-Indie tag team that targeted his policy generalities and health insurance proposals.

On the other hand, ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I), who released a detailed plan for revamping the state's tax code this week, got high marks from NJ observers. Keeping with the baseball metaphors, Dem analysis Michael Murphy said, "Chris Daggett hit the ball out of the park today."

Whereas Christie, Montclair State University's Brigid Harrison said during NJN's postmortem of the 90-minute debate, "didn't hit a home run and that's what he needed to do tonight." Meanwhile, Corzine survived a shaky defense of his record and lives to fight another day. "He wasn't projecting winner," said NJN's Michael Aron. Neither was Christie, said Murphy. "He seemed upset, angry."

NJN's observers agreed: Daggett won the day. But it's doubtful that he'll be able to win the war.

[SEAN J. MILLER]

The Hotline has learned from MSNBC sources that viewers tuning into "Imus in the Morning" on FBN next week should not the expect to see MSNBC personalities on the show.

Yesterday, the New York Observer speculated that the program most threatened by the Don Imus resurrection would be MSNBC's "Morning Joe," a show that inherited Imus' political-insider format and demographic. Back when Imus was simulcast on MSNBC, reporters and pundits from CBS, ABC, FNC and CNN often crossed-over to call into the show, even though it competed with their own morning programming. Even after MSNBC cancelled Imus, various NBC/MSNBC/CNBC personalities and reporters continued to call into the radio show.

Additionally, Imus said on-air yesterday, "I got an email from [his booker] last night -- she says CNBC won't let Charles Gasparino on so he is cancelling his appearance here because we are on FBN now, how long will it take him to grow a pair so he can come on with us?"

Adding an incestuous take on the two soon-to-be-competing-programs is that Imus' radio show on WABC in NYC actually leads into MSNBC's Joe Scarborough's radio show at 10 a.m. ET on WABC in NYC.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

UPDATE: The Hotline is still awaiting comment from the other nets, but an ABC spokesperson says: "We do not have a specific policy on this; however, we will continue to assess all requests, Imus or otherwise, based on their merit."

UPDATE #2: CNN "will have to evaluate on a case-by-case base."

WH senior economic adviser Austan Goolsbee took home the top prize at last night's "Funniest Celebrity in Washington" event, besting 11 other contestants with an edgy, sarcastic performance that drew laughs and also raised a few eyebrows.

Goolsbee beat out a cadre of DC journalists, politicos and other "celebs" including Americans for Tax Reform pres. Grover Norquist, Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA) and "Joe the Plumber" Samuel Wurzelbacher at the annual event, poking fun at himself, the admin. and Fox News Channel.

Goolsbee, on himself: "I'm just a guy from Chicago (future Fed chair)."

On the admin.: "When we came in office, it was not that fun of a time to be here, because of the economy. But it was okay, because as we took office, it was an all-star team of economists, and we basically knew what to do -- panic."

On rescuing the economy: "It's been a long, long time since things were this bad, so we kind of had to go back and look at the old textbooks -- Karl Marx, Trotsky."

On Fox: "We all want our kids to be educated. Think of somebody in today's world, in the 21st century. If you have no skills, and no education, and you don't know anything, what future do you possibly have? -- Fox News correspondent."

He also roasted Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), who was honored at the event with a "Lifetime Achievement Award."

Goolsbee: "Senator Nelson is a Democrat. It's true, he voted for the Bush tax cuts. He voted against the Obama budget, and he got the public option killed in the Senate, ... If you think through the history of this country, there are many leading figures that he reminds me of -- Benedict Arnold."

Nelson, who took the stage just before Goolsbee, drew laughs of his own as he delivered zinger after zinger in his acceptance speech.

Nelson, on receiving the award: "To be recognized in Washington for something other than picking up women in North Korea or ditching them in Argentina is a real welcome change of pace."

On Norquist: "Grover finds these events very valuable. Because if he has his way on health care, laughter will be the only medication."

On health care: "There's talk about splitting the health care bill into two parts, kind of like John Edwards' 'two Americas,' only there wouldn't be a paternity test to determine your coverage."

On birthers: "We really need to stop this push to demand birth certificates for our elected officials. It really would be a pain if Senator Byrd had to roll out those big, old tablets every time he ran for re-election."

And finally, on his "lifetime achievement" award: "I'd like to thank Senator Burris for making me feel like it was okay to carve this honor in stone on my mausoleum."

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

We knew the race to replace upstate NY ex-Rep./Army Sec. John McHugh (R) would be interesting, but a poll released today confirms it's a three-headed monster.

A Siena College poll -- the first independent poll taken in the race, shows Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R) leading atty Bill Owens (D) 35-28%, with accountant Doug Hoffman (C) coming in third with 16%. Those results differ a bit from two recently released pro-Hoffman polls, which showed him running a close third.

Interestingly, in this poll, Scozzafava polls well among Dems. Among that group, she takes 26%, while Owens pulls in 48%. She leads among GOP voters (47-22% over Hoffman), and among indies (26-23% over Owens). In other words, she's pulling from all camps, something she'll need to do if she's to win the 11/3 special in a 3-way race.

Scozzafava's camp must've expecting sub-par results, as it released a memo early this a.m. to reporters that said she's "been under constant attack" by her opponents, who have already aired "hundreds of thousands of dollars" of TV ads. But considering all of the powerful forces aligned against her -- the DCCC, Owens, Hoffman -- she can expect this to continue through the 11/3 election. In addition, the Club for Growth -- which has endorsed Hoffman -- has scheduled a 2-week, $250K ad buy for the Conservative, according to Politico.

Of course, she hasn't been on the air herself. Her camp says her own TV ads will air "in the coming days." This is a necessity, as she's lost a bit of the momentum she started this race with. Without her own message, she'll be gladly defined by the Club and Hoffman on her right, and Owens and the DCCC.

The poll notes that an endorsement by McHugh would do Scozzafava wonders, as 40% say they'd be more likely to vote for a candidate who earns his endorsement. But considering his position, that's extremely unlikely. An endorsement by Pres. Obama -- in a CD he won 52-47% -- would be more polarizing, as 32% of voters say it'd make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 24% said it'd make them less likely to do so.

The poll, which was conducted 9/27-29, surveyed 622 RVs with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.

(TIM SAHD)

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the South Pacific earthquakes and tsunamis.

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) made the TV Rounds 9/30 p.m.

Grayson, as part of a roundtable of pundits, on what he meant by his "die quickly" comments: "Well, what I mean is they've got no plan. It's been 24 hours since I said that. Where is the Republican plan? We're all waiting to see something to take care of people who have preexisting conditions, to take care of the 47 million people in this country who have no coverage at all. There is no plan. And that's what I meant ... when I said the Republican plan really is don't get sick. And if you do get sick, die quickly."

Grayson, on whether he "really" believes GOPers want "sick people to die quickly": "Look, what I want is for us to work together to solve our problems and I don't see the Republicans doing that. ... There's no effort by the Republicans to actually pass any kind of bill. ... No bill whatsoever. They just want to stop everything."

More Grayson, on whether any Dem leader has asked him to "apologize" to GOPers: "No. No. ... And you know why? You know why they haven't asked me? Because I'm saying what everyone else has been thinking, but no one else has been saying."

CNN's Blitzer: "And so you have no intention of apologizing?"

Grayson: "Of course not. Apologize? I'm not the one who should be apologizing. ... They should apologize to America."

After the jump, more Grayson and reax.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"Max, be a sweetheart and go fetch me a Diet Coke? No ice."

"Do me a favor, Blanche, and go see what they can do about this air conditioning. Ugh, it's like a thousand degrees in here."