GOP Leadership Backs Hoffman; Will It Be Enough?

The guy that was once labeled a spoiler may now be in the drivers' seat come 11/3 in NY-23. Accountant Doug Hoffman (C) stands to be the one who gains the most by today's announcement that Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) is dropping out of the race. And toward that end, the GOP leadership announced today that it was backing his candidacy.

In a statement from Min. Leader John Boehner, Min. Whip Eric Cantor and NRCC Chair Pete Sessions, the GOPers said they "look forward to welcoming" Hoffman into the Conference. "He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs," the leaders wrote in a statement. "It is vital that we unify behind a candidate that will support reining in massive government spending and work with Republicans in Congress to restore fiscal sanity and propose thoughtful measures to get our nation's economy on the right track."

With just three days left in the race, what the cmte can do most for Hoffman is help him with the get-out-the-vote effort, and sources say that's going to happen.

Scozzafava's support -- measured at 20% in the today's Siena College poll -- consisted of 29% GOPers, 15% indies, and 11% of Dems. Getting those GOP voters to come home will likely be the difference between Hoffman winning and losing.

Hoffman sought to rally GOPers behind his banner in a statement. "This morning's events prove what we have said for the last week; this campaign is a horserace between me and Nancy Pelosi's handpicked candidate, Bill Owens," wrote Hoffman. "At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads. They are throwing mud; they are trying to stop me." He added it's "time for us to send a message" to DC -- "we're sick and tired of big spending, high taxing, career politicians."

Hoffman mgr Rob Ryan told us he's confident "the vast majority" of Scozzafava's voters will head Hoffman's way, but acknowledged the race has been anything but predictable so far. "I've been doing this for 33 years, and I've never seen anything like this race before," Ryan said.

GOP consultant Carl Forti, who's a native of upstate New York, says he's confident Scozzafava's exit means those GOPers who were in Scozzafava's camp will move to Hoffman, giving him the "clear advantage in the race."

But considering Scozzafava's moderate-to-liberal profile, Owens should stand to gain some support from her more moderate followers. And in a statement today, he made a play for those voters. "Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava has been an honorable public servant for years now and I have a tremendous amount of respect for her and her commitment to her principles," wrote Owens. While we disagree on certain issues, we share a dedication to serving the best interests of Upstate New York and the Obama administration's efforts to get our economy back on track."

One Dem consultant who's familiar with the race says Owens' best hope remains in getting the labor support that had backed Scozzafava to move solidly towards him.

Indeed, Scozzafava was endorsed by both the local Central Trades and Labor Council, and also the UAW. The Dem consultant believes Scozzafava's husband, who heads the Labor Council -- and who reportedly attempted early in the process to get Dems to pick his wife to be their party's nominee -- may now be clear to make a push for Owens in the final days.

Of course, since Scozzafava will remain on the ballot, there's the question of whether those voters will actually still chose her on Election Day. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times today that she still thinks she'll receive more than 20% of the vote. If that is the case, Hoffman's chances are hindered greatly. But considering that her support had seen a sharp decline in recent weeks, Scozzafava is not likely to garner such wide support on 11/3.

Because of the big GOP voter registration edge there, and because of the CD's GOP historical leanings, Dems have always downplayed Owens' chances in the CD. Still, Owens had a good shot at winning as long as the GOP field remained divided. Those hopes may have been dashed today, and the unlikely "conservative Republican" Conservative Party candidate may be the frontrunner heading into Election Day.

But considering the events of the last several weeks in this race, anything is bound to happen here in the last couple days.

(TIM SAHD)