NY-23: Owens Leads, DeDe In Second

A new Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos out this a.m. shows atty Bill Owens (D) leading Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R) 35-30%, with accountant Doug Hoffman (C) coming in third at 23%. Despite her second-place position, this may be the best news Scozzafava has had in days, particularly because polls have been floating around purportedly showing her sliding to third place.

The poll was conducted 10/19-21 among 600 LVs. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%.

In recent days, Scozzafava has faced the growing chorus of GOPers who have decided they're backing Hoffman. She's also released uninspiring fundraising numbers and has suffered a few campaign misteps.

Of course, Hoffman suffered his own setback 10/22, when he made it plainly clear to the Watertown Daily Times' ed board that he's not up-to-speed on local issues. If he truly is a threat to either side in this race, we're going to see this editorial on a TV ad.

Still, Owens looks like he's in the drivers' seat, as all he has to do is solidify his base in order to win. Dems already back him by a 60-16% margin, and with 16% of the vote still undecided, all he's got to do is bring those voters back home, and he will likely have enough support to win a plurality.

Among GOPers, Scozzafava takes 46% of the vote, while surrendering 27% to Hoffman. Owens takes a significant 18%. Indies favor Hoffman by a slight 35-32% margin over Hoffman, while Scozzafava lags with 22%. If Owens can continue to take a significant portion of these crucial voting blocs on election day, Scozzafava and Hoffman's chances are greatly diminished on 11/3.

(TIM SAHD)