NY-23: Owens Still Leads, But Hoffman Makes Huge Push
A new Siena College poll out this a.m. has good news for atty Bill Owens (D) and accountant Doug Hoffman (C). Owens still leads, 36-35%, but his advantage over Hoffman has shrunk by 9% from the last survey, taken just over two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Assemb. Dede Scozzafava has shed another nine points, and slides all the way down to 20% and out of contention. In the last survey, Owens led Scozzafava 33-29%, with Hoffman at 23%.
The Siena poll was conducted 10/27-29 among 709 LVs. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.
GOP voters appear to be behind Hoffman's ascendancy. Just as key GOP endorsers (MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin, ex-NY Gov. George Pataki) have been rallying to his side, so have the rank-and-file. In the latest poll, he takes 50% of the GOP vote, while Scozzafava takes 29%; just two weeks ago, Hoffman took 27% of voters in this group, while Scozzafava was at 40%.
Hoffman even expanded his edge among indies from the last survey, too, as he holds a 40-35% advantage over Owens in this group.
Owens' slight overall lead, though, comes from the fact that he's consolidated the Dem base. He now takes 66% of the vote, with Hoffman stealing 14% and Scozzafava 11%. Dems hope that with VP Biden coming into the CD for him on 11/2, Owens will be able to capture the remaining undecided vote, and possibly peel away some of Scozzafava's vote here, as voters realize she may have no shot.
Scozzafava's slide can be told by looking at her numbers in the Watertown area, her home base. At the beginning of the campaign -- when she held the lead -- Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties gave her a commanding 53-23% lead over Owens. Now, her home gives her just a 34-30% edge over Owens, and her support is cratering.
It may be cliche, but turnout is key in any close race. And while Hoffman has no real geographic base, he does have a committed group of supporters. In the survey, 93% of his backers say they are "absolutely" or "fairly" certain to support him on 11/3. Meanwhile, 84% of Owens' supporters, and 77% of Owens supporters, say the same.
So, Owens continues to hold the lead, but Hoffman's got all the momentum. Dems have been hammering Hoffman in TV ads for being out-of-touch, and on 10/30, began hitting him for supporting policies that offshore jobs. The first attack doesn't appear to have stopped Hoffman's surge; will the second? It's going to be a fascinating Election night.
(TIM SAHD)