November 2009

By Felicia Sonmez

The Boston Herald today endorsed Rep. Michael Capuano (D-08) in the Dem special primary for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D) seat.

"No flesh-and-blood human being can duplicate the four decades of experience the late Sen. Ted Kennedy brought to the job," the Herald writes. "And while this newspaper often clashed with the senior senator on issues, what we admired most about him was his steadfastness to the causes in which he believed and his unparalleled devotion to this state, its people and the institutions which make it so special."

"Those should be benchmarks by which voters choose his successor. And by that standard it's U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano who stands out as the best qualified of the Democratic candidates to fill that seat at a critical juncture in this nation's history."

"[W]hat we like best about Capuano," the Herald writes, "is what others find so off-putting -- his fire, his passion, his take-no-prisoners way of dealing with issues. It's, well, Kennedyesque."

City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) has snagged the Boston Globe's backing, but AG Martha Coakley (D) maintains her advantage in the polls.

Earlier today, at the first of at least four debates scheduled in the week before the 12/8 primary, the four Dems echoed each other on issues from health care to unemployment, with Pagliuca splitting from the others in supporting a troop increase in Afghanistan.

Capuano, Coakley and Khazei all came out strongly against increasing the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, while Pagliuca seemed to hedge, saying he'd support a surge if it meant that troops would come home more quickly in the long run.

"I think we need to listen to the president's plan," Pagliuca said. "And what I'm hoping is it is a quick exit strategy."

"If it calls for troop increases -- it would be one where they go in temporarily and we actually bring the troops home faster, and if he's putting the troops in there to protect our troops because of issues relating of the Taliban and issues of our casualties -- I'd support the president. So I think we all need to wait," he added.

By Reid Wilson

A week after RNC comms director Trevor Francis left under unpleasant circumstances, his top deputy has left the committee as well.

Deputy RNC comms director Todd Irons left the committee Monday, sources tell Hotline OnCall. Multiple sources describe the departure as voluntary, citing Irons' desire to spend more time with his family.

An RNC veteran who spent years working for the consulting firm ViaNovo and as vice president at the Eskew Group, Irons came on board in April at Francis' request.

"We respect Todd's decision to pursue other opportunities and spend more time with his young family. We appreciate all his efforts and the integral role he played in developing the messaging for the 2009 races. Todd's talent and leadership will be missed at the RNC. We wish him the best of luck in future endeavors," RNC chief of staff Ken McKay said in a statement emailed to Hotline OnCall.

It's the latest change in the RNC's comms department. Top staffers there have had repeated run-ins with chair Michael Steele, sources say, and those who have been in meetings with Steele say he has voiced displeasure with the lack of positive coverage the RNC has gotten during his leadership. Steele allies have denied that the lack of coverage had anything to do with changes in the department.

The committee is beginning its search to replace Francis, and insiders tell OnCall there are several names under serious consideration. Keep an eye peeled for our list of likely suspects in the days ahead.

By Tim Sahd

Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA) -- one of a shrinking number of targeted GOP incumbents this cycle -- now knows his general election challenger: physician Ami Bera (D).

That's because Bera's opponent, Sacramento Municipal Utility Dir. Bill Slaton (D), dropped out of the race today and endorsed Bera. "The more I have spoken to people about what I can contribute to public policy and the more I have listened to their concerns," Slaton wrote, "the clearer it has become that my best opportunity for service lies right here at home."

Bera is one of the few challengers this cycle who managed to put strong back-to-back fundraising quarters together, and has become one of the party's top candidates. He's raised $585K so far, putting him in the top-5 fundraisers for Dem challengers. Slaton, who had over $400K cash-on-hand (thanks to an injection of nearly $300K of his own cash into the race), is the second Dem to depart the race; Elk Grove Councilor Gary Davis (D) dropped out of the contest earlier this year.

For several reasons, Dems have had better luck at avoiding contested primaries in key challenger races. A quick look at the landscape shows seven races where Dem challengers will be fighting through crowded primary contests, while 14 Dems are running unopposed.

Meanwhile, the opposite is true for the GOP: over 20 GOP challengers currently have clear sailing to the general, while over 40 are expected to have at least moderate primary competition.

Two numbers jump out here between the parties: the cornucopia of GOP challengers compared to Dems, and the ratio of contested versus clear primaries.

The environment for the last several months has been a rich one for GOPers, and the NRCC's claims that candidates are begging to hop aboard the GOP bandwagon appear to be true.

That's a boon for GOPers because it allows them to expand the playing field and target incumbents like Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), Vic Snyder (D-AR), Bart Gordon (D-TN) and others they have rarely challenged before.

But the environment is a bit of a negative in that it certainly hasn't dissuaded potential candidates from jumping into contests that already have strong challengers.

Costly primaries will drain challengers of much needed cash, especially considering the fact they'll be facing well-stocked incumbents. But if you're the GOP, which is enjoying the best recruiting bonanza it's experienced in several cycles, you've got to take the good with the bad.

By Abby Livingston

In a fiesty interview with DFW affiliate WFAA, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) wanted to leave no doubt in Texan minds that she is a conservative. In fact, Hutchison went so far in the 19 minutes and 29 seconds that she spent talking in the interview, that she used the word "conservative" as an adjective, verb, and root word 14 times.

Straight out of the gate, in her introductory comments, she used "conservative" four times in a three sentence stretch.

"I'm going to win the primary because I am a true conservative. I'm the one who's actually walked the conservative line, cutting taxes for Americans, lowering the marriage penalty, making our Texas sales taxes deductible. I'm the one with the record of conservatism. Governor [Rick] Perry is the one who talks the conservative game."

Okay, we get it.

By Reid Wilson

The Supreme Court has blocked a lower court ruling that would require the Defense Dept. to release photos of prisoners being abused, handing civil liberties advocates another defeat.

The ruling requires the 2nd Circuit Appeals Court to take another look at the case. Justices cited a section of this year's DHS appropriations bill which prohibits the DoD from releasing so-called "protected documents," including photographs relating to the treatment of detainees.

Def. Sec. Robert Gates designated the photos as protected documents, as allowed under the DHS appropriation. The high court cited that move in their decision to remand the case.

The ACLU, which had sued the DoD for access to the photos, said it would continue to pursue the case in lower courts.

"We continue to believe that the photos should be released, and we intend to press that case in the lower court," said ACLU legal director Steven Shapiro in a statement. Jameel Jaffer, another atty on the case and director of the ACLU's national security project, called the DoD's refusal to make the photos public "both unlawful and unwise."

"[T]here is a strong public interest in the photos' release," Jaffer added.

The 2nd Circuit, which is based in New York City, denied an en banc review of the case earlier this year. As a member of that court at the time, new Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor had to recuse herself from deliberating the case at the higher level.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney is helping two new GOPers raise money for their campaigns, spreading good will in advance of another WH bid, while one of his rivals is taking a first trip to NH.

Romney endorsed state Treas. Kay Ivey (R) in the open race for AL GOV over the weekend, returning a favor for a public official who served as his statewide campaign chair in '08.

Ivey is running against several major candidates, including ex-AL community college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) and ex-state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R).

Meanwhile, Romney will raise money in early Jan. for Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-CA). Romney will be in Palm Desert, CA for a fundraiser at a private residence on Jan. 9.

Though Dems find themselves playing a lot of defense this year, Bono Mack is one of the party's top targets. Dems are excited about the prospects of Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet (D), and both candidates are raising good money.

GOPers make noise about putting party before their own WH '12 ambitions, but how's this for Romney's commitment to the GOP: He's raising money for Bono Mack even though she endorsed ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) in '08.

But it's probably not completely altruistic. Romney has gone on fundraising tears before, and spending PAC money to help fellow GOPers just seeds the ground for a WH '12 bid.

In other WH '12 news, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty is continuing his early swing around the country. He is set to appear at a fundraiser for state Sen GOPers in NH on 12/16. It will be Pawlenty's first trip to NH since he formed his PAC.

By Reid Wilson

Keep an eye on this one: KY AG Jack Conway (D) and LG Dan Mongiardo (D) will fight over their differing positions on mountaintop mining, and it could prove a major sticking point in their already-bitter primary.

In a column published 11/29 in the Louisvill Courier-Journal, KY political guru Al Cross takes a look at the differences between Mongiardo and Conway.

Mongiardo, from the rural eastern part of the state, has cast himself as the candidate most likely to favor the coal industry -- a major part of the state's economy. Conway, from Louisville, is against mountaintop removal, a controversial method of mining that Mongiardo supports.

We've heard from several KY Dem strategists who say the issue could be a factor in the primary; the coal industry plays an outsized role in KY, even though it accounts for less than 1% of the jobs in the state. But it's an issue that pits Mongiardo's base of rural Dems squarely against Conway's urban Dems.

If mountaintop mining plays a major, or decisive, role in the primary, it could signal which Dem faction is dominant in state politics.

Polls have showed both candidates leading, and national Dems who once favored Conway have modified their language toward Mongiardo. They claim to be happy with either candidate. Still, the eventual winner is unlikely to emerge from the race unscathed; political watchers are hard-pressed to remember a primary that has turned this negative this quickly.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, ophthamologist Rand Paul (R) and the NRSC are having a bit of a disagreement, the Courier-Journal writes. Paul thinks political director Randy Bumps told him the NRSC would not get involved in the primary, a notion that the group's comms director disputes.

"What Randy told [Paul] was that the NRSC does not anticipate making any endorsements in the race but that we reserve the right to do so," the NRSC's Brian Walsh told the paper.

GOP strategists want to see Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) emerge from the primary, but they've been surprised by Paul's strong fundraising.

By Reid Wilson

Ohio Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) has become the third Dem candidate to openly oppose Pres. Obama's plan to add more than 30K troops to the U.S. force in Afghanistan.

In a post at Huffington Post, Brunner blames ex-Pres. Bush for getting the U.S. into the war, but says it's time to remove troops from the country.

"At the risk of being called a naysayer, a name I'm not often called that because of the "can do" attitude I normally adopt, I believe the costs are too great -- in human lives and economic resources -- to continue along the current path. It is clear to me that America must set a timetable for bringing our troops home from Afghanistan as soon as possible," Brunner writes.

"I doubt that General Stanley McChrystal is the leader whose advice we should follow without significant validation of his recommendations. Gen. McChrystal recommended the deployment of additional troops in a 'surge' modeled after the one in Iraq," she writes. "Also, General McChrystal's previous association with the abuse of detainees and with the incident surrounding Pat Tillman give me pause as I evaluate his recommendations."

Brunner is running what looks like an increasingly long-shot bid for the Dem nom against LG Lee Fisher. Fisher has raised much more money, and he has support from much of the OH Dem establishment. Quiet efforts to ease Brunner out of the race have so far been unsuccessful.

But a stronger candidate has already come out against Obama's Afghanistan plan. MA AG Martha Coakley (D) said in a statement 11/29 that she, too, opposes the surge.

"Based on what I know now about the President's planned troop increase, I do not believe that we should send additional troops into Afghanistan. I believe we should begin the process of bringing our troops home," Coakley said in her own statement. "Without a credible Afghan partner, we cannot achieve a goal of securing this country with increased troop levels and then implementing a sound exit strategy that leaves it in the hands of a stable Afghan government."

Coakley leads the race to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) by a wide margin. Dems head to the polls 12/8 for a primary pitting Coakley against Rep. Mike Capuano and two wealthy candidates.

In PA, the issue has become a central disagreement between Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D). Specter opposes a troop surge, while Sestak favors a "measured" troop increase. But Sestak said Obama must have a "comprehensive exit strategy" before he commits more troops.

With contested Dem primaries in IL and KY, how many more candidates will try to differentiate themselves from their opponents, and solidify their bona fides with the Dem base, by opposing a strategy Obama has yet to even lay out? We've got calls out to key candidates in both states to get their reaction.

UPDATE: A spokesman for IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) says his candidate will wait until Obama officially lays out his plan tomorrow night. Giannoulias rival/ex-Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D) said in a statement emailed to Hotline OnCall he is a skeptic of the plan to raise troop levels, but did not take a final position on whether he would support or oppose the move.

"I am skeptical that our mission in Afghanistan should be to spend years rebuilding the country with our armed forces at potentially great cost of American life," Hoffman said. " I am skeptical that our mission in Afghanistan should be to spend years rebuilding the country with our armed forces at potentially great cost of American life."

SECOND UPDATE: KY LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) will also take a wait-and-see approach, but he says he looks more favorably on a surge:

"I am waiting to hear what the President has to say tomorrow night. I am inclined to support a troop surge in Afghanistan. I believe we have to defeat the Al-Qaeda terrorists responsible for the attacks on 9/11 who are still present in the region and remain a threat to our national security. I am looking for President Obama to clearly define our mission in Afghanistan and how we attain those objectives. Between Ft. Campbell, Ft Knox, our National Guard and Army Reserve, many Kentucky families have loved ones serving in Afghanistan. We must make sure our fighting men and women have the resources necessary to complete their mission as safely and quickly as possible," he said in a statement emailed to Hotline OnCall.

A spokesman for AG Jack Conway (D) has yet to respond to a request for comment.

By Reid Wilson

No member of Congress, except the party's '08 WH nominee, scored more than 1% of the vote when GOP voters were asked who best represents the party's core values.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) took 13%, but in the latest sign of the GOP's general dissatisfaction with DC -- including their own incumbents -- every other name mentioned by more than 1% of respondents is not a member of Congress.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) won the most mentions, at 18%, followed by McCain at 13%. Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) was the choice of 7%, while ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich and radio host Rush Limbaugh trailed with 6%, 4% and 2%, respectively.

Members of Congress getting the nod at 1% included House Min. Leader John Boehner, Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN) and Ron Paul (R-TX).

The new survey from the Washington Post shows GOP voters are unhappy with the direction their party is headed, but they disagree with some national party officials by allowing for a broader tent and a greater diversity of opinion.

Though conservatives have howled when a centrist candidate shows up on the ballot, GOP voters are largely fine with their candidates holding more moderate positions. Fully 69% said it is okay for GOP candidates to take moderate positions, while 27% said their candidates should have "only conservative" views.

Meanwhile, GOP voters say the party is spending too little time on three key issues that have brought them mixed success. Six in 10 voters say they think the GOP is not talking enough about federal spending and the economy, two issues that GOPers have used in recent months to set themselves apart from the WH, with good results.

But 61% say the GOP is not talking enough about illegal immigration. Many political watchers blame that issue for costing the party among Hispanic voters, who backed Pres. Obama by a more than 2-to-1 margin in '08.

GOPers seem to be content with the amount their party talks about social issues. More than half the party's backers say they talk the right amount or too much about gun rights, same-sex marriage and abortion.

The GOP electorate, it seems, is more forgiving than some members of the RNC. A resolution proposed by a conservative RNC member would prohibit the party from funding candidates who do not fit 8 of 10 tenets of the party -- something that could eliminate funding for two of the party's top Sen candidates in DE and IL this year.

The GOP remains unified in its feelings towards the admin -- 89% say they are either dissatisfied or angry at the Obama WH -- but they are less sure of their feelings towards their own leaders. Just 49% say the GOP is headed in the right direction, while 42% say the party is going the wrong way. And 41% is dissatisfied or angry about GOPers in Congress.

The poll, conducted 11/19-23, surveyed 804 self-identified GOPers and GOP-leaning nonpartisans for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

By Reid Wilson

Good Monday morning. We hope your Thanksgiving holiday went well, and that you recover quickly. It may take us some time.

Here is Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people who have big decisions and much at stake over the next 24 hours:

EX-GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE: Polls show he is the first choice of more GOPers than any other potential WH '12 candidate, but his connection to a suspect in the shooting deaths of 4 Pierce Co., WA, police officers could prove a major hurdle if he chooses to get back into politics. Huckabee granted clemency to the suspect in '00, leading some to call the lifelong criminal Huckabee's version of Willie Horton.

Huckabee's office issued a statement late 11/29 deflecting blame, calling the suspect's release the "result of a series of failures in the criminal justice system." But it appears Huckabee didn't grant clemency without pushback: "This is the day I've been dreading for a long time," Pulaski Co. (AR) prosecuting atty Larry Jegley told The Seattle Times yesterday. That makes one wonder if Huckabee was urged not to sign the papers, raising questions about his judgment in the face of prosecutors' objections.

Add the horrible crime committed by a man he released to a statement this weekend, in which Huckabee said he is "less likely rather than more likely" to run for the WH in '12, and Pres. Obama's first potential foe looks to be effectively out of the race.

AFGHANISTAN STRATEGY: Pres. Obama travels to West Point tomorrow to give his long-awaited preview of a new strategy for turning around the war in Afghanistan, and his biggest challenge may come from an unusual side. Already, liberals are lining up with big concerns about expanding the war. "I've got a real problem about expanding this war where the rest of the world is sitting around and saying, 'Isn't it a nice thing that the taxpayers of the United States and the U.S. military are doing the work that the rest of the world should be doing?'" said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on ABC's "This Week."

What may be more troubling is that at least one Dem is using opposition to Obama's plan as a campaign issue in a primary. MA AG Martha Coakley (D) said in a 11/29 statement she believes withdrawal is a better option, though she promised to listen to Obama's speech to make up her mind. If Obama loses liberals, he needs to pick up GOPers to get any troop increase through Congress -- something he has been singularly unable to do on major legislation, but that could give both sides an opportunity to tout their bipartisan credentials.

(Coakley's statement, in its entirety, is below the jump.)

On the Sunday shows, which Marc Ambinder covers in five bullet points or less:

Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), chair of Armed Services Cmte, says Pres. Obama needs to explain how additional U.S. Military forces will speed build-up of the Afghan Army.

The GOP's professional class, represented by ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie, remains at odds with ideological conservatives, represented by ex-Rep. Dick Armey (R-TX) over the GOP's proposed purity resolution.

And Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) says he is open to the possibility of voting for health care legislation without a robust public option.

Also today, a Senate report suggests the Bush admin had the chance to capture Osama bin Laden in Dec. '01, and White House party crashers want to get paid while Sens. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ) want them to be prosecuted.

And in WA, four officers have been killed in an ambush at a coffee shop just south of Tacoma.

Philanthropist Alan Khazei (D) has won the endorsement of MA's largest newspaper a little over a week before voters head to the polls for a special election primary.

Though most polls show Khazei running 4th out of the 4 major candidates, the endorsement from the Boston Globe will give him a boost that television commercials can't provide.

"The 48-year-old Khazei offers a strong vision for success in the Senate, channeling the energy of activist groups and private-sector policy incubators while dedicating himself to the laborious task of building legislative coalitions," the Globe writes of the former City Year CEO.

The Globe has kind words for each candidate: Rep. Mike Capuano (D) "proudly combines a bring-home-the-bacon approach to politics and a steadfast independence." AG Martha Coakley (D) "combines a no-nonsense courtroom demeanor with a down-to-earth reasonableness - a personality that would play well in the Senate." And businessman Stephen Pagliuca (D) "sincerely wishes to give back to his community."

Still, the paper writes that no one is about to truly replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D).

"The chance to replace one of history's greatest legislators, Ted Kennedy, attracted a diverse field of Democrats. Predictably, none matches Kennedy's ability to represent both evergreen values and futuristic thinking."

Meanwhile, it has been Capuano who has gotten most of the high-profile endorsements. Ex-Gov. Michael Dukakis (D) sided with Capuano 11/28, the first time Dukakis has endorsed a candidate in a Dem primary since he left office. MA First Lady Diane Patrick also backs Capuano.

But Coakley retains her big lead. A Univ. of NH poll conducted 11/13-18 among 537 LVs showed Coakley leading with 43% to Capuano's 22%. Pagliuca clocked in at 15%, with Khazei bringing up the rear at 6%. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

(REiD WILSON)

NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) spent at least $102M of his own fortune on his successful -- if underwhelming -- bid for a third term, according to a report filed 11/27 with the city's Campaign Finance Board.

Bloomberg's spending is a record for a self-financed campaign for any public office in the U.S.; he spent roughly $174 for each of the 585K votes he received in defeating Comp. Bill Thompson (D). Public polling had shown Bloomberg coasting by Thompson in the weeks before 11/3, but Hizzoner won by a much narrower margin, capturing less than half of the votes cast.

The Bloomberg camp admitted after the election they had used their vast coffers to portray an air of inevitability around Bloomberg's candidacy, knowing that the final vote tally would likely be much closer. Still, Bloomberg outspent Thompson roughly 14-to-1, but defeated him by fewer than 50K votes.

The post-election filings won't be the final word on Bloomberg's '09 largesse. The lavish win bonuses received by top Bloomberg camp staffers in past City Hall bids are the stuff of legend. Reports with those dollar figures won't be released until after the New Year, by which time Bloomberg will have been sworn in for a third time.

Thompson's future, meanwhile, is murkier. The New York Times on 11/26 floated the possibility, raised earlier this month in the Daily News, that Thompson could challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Dem primary.

Thompson declined to discuss the possibility while volunteering on Thanksgiving Day in the SoHo section of Manhattan.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Pastor Rick Warren and Bill and Melinda Gates.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), ex-House Maj. Leader Dick Armey, Assemb. Dede Scozzafava and ex-Bush counselor Ed Gillespie.

This Week hosts Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The roundtable will feature New York Times' Paul Krugman, ABC's Cokie Roberts, Washington Post's George Will, ex-Bush strategist Matthew Dowd and author Dan Senor.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R).

State of the Union hosts Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne, ex-British PM Tony Blair, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, GOP strategist Ed Rollins and Rep. David Obey (D-WI) (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) has staked out Afghanistan as the next issue on which to prove his Dem bona fides after his party switch earlier this year.

Specter has come out against a troop buildup in Afghanistan, a position his campaign cites as farther to the left than that of his opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak (D).

The move, which comes as Pres. Obama is expected to announce the addition of as many as 30K troops in a prime time speech next week at West Point, also puts Specter in the curious position of being to the left of the WH itself, which has thrown its support behind his bid.

But perhaps more troublesome for Specter, it could give Sestak more fodder to use against what his camp sees as Specter's Achilles' heel -- the argument that Specter's issue positions are motivated by political calculation rather than personal conviction.

Specter made his first remarks in opposition to a troop increase early last week, telling a group of PA high school seniors 11/16, "My view is not to stay or increase troops unless Afghanistan is indispensable in a war against al-Qaeda."

He elaborated on an 11/19 conf. call with bloggers: "My view is that we ought not to add troops to Afghanistan," he said. "I even question staying there unless it is indispensable to our fight against al Qaeda. If it is, then we have to do everything necessary to defeat Al Qaeda, because they are out to annihilate us."

Those remarks were circulated to reporters by Specter's camp 11/19 under the header, "Specter opposes troop increases in Afghanistan." Specter reiterated them for a national audience in an appearance on "Fox News Sunday" 11/22.

Sestak's camp fired back in an 11/22 release claiming that Specter was "going along with Joe's position on Afghanistan by saying that we should only increase troop levels if it is indispensable in our war against al Qaeda" -- a claim Specter mngr Chris Nicholas challenged, noting that Sestak "has said multiple times that he supports a 'measured increase' in troops in Afghanistan."

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

With the conservative blogosphere up in arms about moderates in races in FL and CA, one might wonder why Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) is getting a pass.

Now, this lack of attention could be simply for want of an opponent. His likely challenger, DE AG Beau Biden (D), has yet to declare his candidacy. Should the younger Biden decide to throw his hat in the ring, it may well prompt conservative bloggers to start focusing on the race.

So far, conservative bloggers are having a hard time mustering much enthusiasm for the moderate. Castle's lifetime ACU rating of 52.28 makes him the most liberal GOP congressman running for Senate next year, placing him to the left of fellow GOP moderates ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (53.33) and IL Rep. Mark Kirk (55.69).

To make matters worse, it was only five months ago that Castle infuriated the rightroots when he became one of only eight GOP congressmen to vote in favor of the climate change bill -- a group that Michelle Malkin derisively called the "Cap-And-Tax 8."

One would think that conservative bloggers would relish the opportunity to capture a Senate seat in a solidly blue state -- not to mention a seat that was held by VP Biden for 36 years. However, there doesn't appear to be much interest in Castle's candidacy in the conservative blogosphere, at least at this early point in the race. There's been nary a word written about Castle since he announced his bid on 10/6.

So why the inattention to a possibly inspiring pickup, and the seeming acceptance of a moderate nominee? Matt Lewis tells Hotline OnCall that while he finds Castle's voting record "troubling," he expects conservative bloggers will support him anyway.

"I think there's a consensus that Castle is as good as it gets for Republicans in Delaware," Lewis explains. "Moreover, there's a sense that you have to pick and choose your battles."

John Hawkins agrees.

"I expect most conservative bloggers would like to see Castle win," Hawkins said. "But it's asking too much to ask people to get excited about a guy who we know will end up semi-regularly stabbing us in the back on a lot of issues we care about."

"This is a story that doesn't have a hero," Lewis adds. "It has one villain who's worse than the other."

(IAN FAERSTEIN)

He may have beaten her, but Obama '08 manager David Plouffe couldn't help taking a shot at ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin.

"It's such a big crowd tonight, for a moment there, I thought I'd wandered into a Sarah Palin event," Plouffe joked at a DC stop on his nat'l tour promoting his new book, "The Audacity To Win."

"But then again," Plouffe quipped, "I wrote a book of non-fiction."

Taking the stage at the Sixth & I Historic Synagogue for the Politics and Prose-sponsored event, Plouffe wove the story of Obama '08 -- a campaign whose chances of success were "close to zero" in the beginning, he said -- speaking for 35 minutes, followed by 25 minutes of questions.

Plouffe described Sec/State Hillary Clinton as "the strongest frontrunner in the party's history." He touched on some of the highs and lows of the campaign, from the loss of the NH primary to Obama's race speech in Philadelphia.

But the most revealing aspects of the event were the larger themes that have seemed to emerge in Plouffe's retelling of the campaign one year later.

Plouffe took aim at the media, with some particularly sharp jabs at the cable nets. He said that during the campaign, "we built our own television network" -- only better, he noted in a Palinesque touch, because doing so allowed the campaign to communicate directly with voters, without the "snarky media filter."

Plouffe also said that Organizing For America, the campaign's continuing grassroots effort, is able to reach "well over" 10M supporters with a single email. That's more people, he noted, than "on most nights watch NBC Nightly News and all the cables combined -- including Fox."

He noted that ultimately, the campaign was about the "big stakes stuff," as opposed to "the material that a bunch of clowns on CNN are arguing about."

Plouffe's depiction of Obama, too, had changed from the campaign, from that of a tried and tested candidate to one that actually was largely untested.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

Accountant Doug Hoffman will again run for the seat he narrowly lost in a special election earlier this month, he said in a statement on his campaign website Thursday.

"[O]ur energies are now directed toward 2010," Hoffman wrote. "Full speed ahead to 2010. This gives us time to carefully articulate and communicate thoughtful positions on issues that impact the great people of our district."

Hoffman narrowly lost the race to fill Army Sec. John McHugh's open seat in upstate NY. After GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign and backed businessman Bill Owens (D), Owens won a small plurality.

Next time, Hoffman said, his three month-long campaign will be better-prepared.

"We take away lessons from this year's campaign that will make us stronger and more competitive in the future," he wrote. "Next time we will be better prepared. Many people forget that our campaign only began in earnest three months ago. Most campaigns of this stature take at least a year to prepare. In three months, we almost toppled an entrenched political system and successfully defied the conventional thinking of the elite political punditry. Citizen government is making a comeback in America."

We're betting national GOPers will be more open to his candidacy this year, now that he will have to run in a primary. Still, Owens will be a formidable candidate with the power -- and liabilities -- of incumbency, and Hoffman has his own issues on which he can improve as a candidate.

Hoffman rescinded a concession he made in the early morning hours after election night, and he's spent the last few weeks making an issue of alleged vote fraud; he has basically blamed ACORN for his loss. People who focus on the last election don't do terribly well on the future one -- just ask Chris Jennings, the Dem nominee in FL-13, who complained about her narrow 369-vote loss under questionable circumstances to Rep. Vern Buchanan in '06; in 2008, she lost her rematch in '08 by a 55%-38% margin. Hoffman will have to get over his loss this year to make a new argument next year.

But he's already started making that new path. Hoffman says he and his backers need to help "other fiscal, common-sense conservatives" get elected, continuing his tendency not to bring up social issues during his campaign. That sounds remarkably like the conversation Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell had with VA voters, a playbook GOPers are eager to mimic next year.

(REID WILSON)

AZ AG Terry Goddard (D) leads Gov. Jan Brewer (R) by a wide margin, according to the state's most respected independent poll.

The Cronkite-Eight Poll, sponsored by ASU's Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET TV, shows 47% of AZ voters would back Goddard, while just 28% want to see Brewer get her own shot at a full term.

Brewer, elected Sec/State in '06, ascended to the top job when Pres. Obama tapped Janet Napolitano to take over at DHS. And her tenure, so far, has been rocky; the state faces huge budget deficits, so much so that it is considering a proposal to sell its own legislative buildings for a quick cash infusion, only to lease them back.

Brewer has challengers lining up on the GOP side as well, including Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, ex-State Sen. Karen Johnson and a host of others. Ex-Transportation Sec. Mary Peters has not ruled out a race, and Treas. Dean Martin (R) is quietly mentioned as a potential candidate as well.

Meanwhile, Goddard is the only serious candidate on the Dem side.

(REID WILSON)

GOPers have long said Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) is one of the most vulnerable Dems in office, thanks to his penchant for controversial statements. We'd be happy to believe them -- if only they had a candidate actually running against the guy.

Instead, the NRCC has watched as candidate after candidate has backed away from challenging Grayson in his Orlando-based district. Finally, GOPers think they have a candidate committed to the race.

Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, the head of the Orlando NFIB, gave an interview to a local news channel, hinting he has already met with NRCC officials and is prepared to jump in the race. According to a biography [pdf] he's the head of a traffic engineering company his parents founded.

For the local news story, ex-LG Toni Jennings (R) gave an on-camera endorsement, a development GOPers say is indicative of O'Donoghue's seriousness about the seat and an indication he will have united party support. GOPers expect O'Donoghue to get in the race early next month.

But in spite of Grayson's love of controversy and habit of inflaming the right, O'Donoghue will have a tough race ahead of him. Grayson already had $477,000 in the bank at the end of Sept, and his comments on the House floor -- that GOPers want those who get sick to "die quickly" -- sparked a fundraising surge that netted him more than $500,000 in a month, he reported on his website.

Too, Grayson has showed a willingness in '08 to seriously self-fund his own campaign; he still owes himself more than $1M from that race.

So, he remains a top target, an unabashed liberal in a decidedly centrist district -- it went for Pres. Obama after voting twice for Pres. Bush. Grayson has the money to run an effective campaign, but now, finally, GOPers have someone who could give him a strong challenge.

(REID WILSON)

Three of four Dems running to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) are raising money at a furious pace, but the fourth has given himself more than $5M, the Boston Globe reports.

With less than two weeks to go, Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) has given himself $5.4M, easily dwarfing his nearest rivals' fundraising success even as he trails in the polls. He can afford it, too; his wealth has been estimated at between $259M and $756M.

Tomorrow, campaigns will have to file reports detailing their fundraising success since Oct. 1. AG Martha Coakley (D) leads with $1.9M in total receipts, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) with $1.8M+ and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) with $1.2M.

Polls show Coakley leading with Capuano gaining ground. But the amount those two have spent doesn't come close to what Pagliuca has invested. He has spent a total of $4.2M on TV ads, compared to $1.4M for Capuano and $1.3M for Coakley. The Khazei campaign could not immediately provide a number.

Coakley, Capuano and Khazei are currently up on the air with one TV ad each. Pagiluca has been up with at least two ads at any given time, according to his campaign, and plans to launch a new ad on health care this p.m.

In total, Pagliuca has raised about half a million dollars, his campaign said. Coakley has taken in $4.1M, followed by Khazei at $2.3M. Capuano, who started the campaign with $1.1M in his federal spending account, has taken in $2.1M more. Coakley currently has $1.9M CoH to Capuano's $1.1M and Khazei's $500K.

Khazei, while the undisputed underdog in the polls, got a boost last week in a fundraiser hosted by NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. More than 160 people attended the event at Bloomberg's private residence, raising more than $250K for the campaign.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

Conservative radio icon Rush Limbaugh is a big fan of ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). His feelings about Gov. Charlie Crist (R) aren't so positive.

In an interview this morning on a Tallahassee radio station, Limbaugh stopped short of endorsing Rubio's uphill battle against Crist in the GOP SEN primary, but he came pretty close.

"I like Rubio. I've never met him, nor have I met Crist," Limbaugh said in a clip circulated by the Rubio campaign. "In the Republican Party particularly, there is a fatigue with RINOs and moderate Republicans. You can see the crowds Sarah Palin is drawing."

"Now Republicans, the only chance they ever have of winning national elections is to go conservative, and I think that's what's brewing out there," Limbaugh went on. "The Republican Party is going to be looking at this Crist-Rubio primary, because it's going to be a pretty stark contrast."

Rubio has positioned himself on Crist's right, but lately Crist has been pushing back, asserting that he is more conservative than he's getting credit for, and that Rubio has more flaws in his record than he has been held to account for.

Crist also suggested that those on the right who oppose him do so because he is not angry enough, citing a recent DailyKos poll that found Rubio ahead among GOP voters who don't believe Pres. Obama was born in the U.S.

"It's hard to be more concervative than I am on issues - though there are different ways stylistically to communicate that - I'm pro-life, I'm pro-gun, I'm pro-family, and I''m anti tax," Crist said in an interview with the St. Pete Times' Adam Smith this week. "I don't know what else you're supposed to be, except maybe angry too."

That irked Limbaugh as well: "I notice that Crist is out there now, 'Hey, what do you mean, who says I'm not conservative? I'm pro-life, I'm pro-gun, I don't know what more I have to be except angry.' That's not going to sit well," Limbaugh said Wednesday morning.

Rubio is still racking up endorsements from the right, but Crist maintains a lead in the polls. We'll see if backing from Limbaugh, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), the Club for Growth and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) can be enough for Rubio to climb what remains a very high hurdle.

(REID WILSON)

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) will take advantage of rumors that he may challenge Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) by raising money to pay down old legal bills.

Conservatives were thrilled when a poll appeared to show Hayworth within striking distance of McCain in a hypothetical GOP primary matchup. The IVR poll, a method of polling Hotline OnCall does not run, has led Hayworth to openly speculate about running against McCain next year during his daily radio show.

Now, in an email to supporters posted by SeeingRedAZ, Hayworth asks for donations to his legal defense fund, the Freedom in Truth Trust. Hayworth will raise money for the fund with Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the hero of anti-illegal immigration activists, at a Dec. 5 event in Paradise Valley.

"Miss Mary, our children, and I will do a lot of praying and a lot of talking in the days ahead, as we determine the best course of action to take for our nation and for our family," Hayworth writes to supporters. "You may not live in Arizona ... but no matter where you call home, would you respond to the attached invitation and please send a contribution to the FIT Trust? That would certainly be a factor in the decision we will make at the 'Hayworth Hacienda!'"

Hayworth incurred campaign debt and legal fees after the '06 campaign. The hardline conservative, who lost his suburban Phoenix seat to Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) in the '06 Dem landslides, is a favorite of Copper State conservatives, while McCain has made a career out of antagonizing the hard right even in his home state.

Our sources in AZ say a Hayworth bid is unlikely, both given his current spot on the Phoenix airwaves and the uphill climb any contest against McCain would be. McCain already has $5M in the bank for his re-election bid, and while conservatives may dislike him, everyone else loves him in AZ (Dems haven't even considered spending time trying to recruit a candidate against him).

But if Hayworth does jump in the race, it will provide an instant forum in which GOPers can debate their views on immigration. The AZ GOP is bitterly split over the issue; sources have called the state party little more than an anti-immigration PAC, and just 1 of the state's 5 GOP members of Congress sides with the party (That would be Rep. Trent Franks, with McCain, Sen. Jon Kyl and Reps. Jeff Flake and John Shadegg hewing more toward a comprehensive solution rather than an enforcement-only approach).

Hayworth is ideologically closer to Franks than he is to the rest of the AZ delegation. If he does decide to make a longshot bid, expect the race to center on little else than the border.

(REID WILSON)

Ex-Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), a top GOP prospect against Rep. John Adler (D-NJ), will return to the NFL this season. And then he's going to run for Congress.

"I received an offer to pursue my professional dream of winning a Super Bowl, and have decided to sign with the San Diego Chargers for the remainder of this season through the playoffs," Runyan wrote in a statement. "Win or lose, these will be my final games as an NFL player."

"After the season is over I plan to officially retire from football and pursue a campaign for the United States Congress," he said. "I look forward to a successful end to my career on the field, and a spirited campaign against Congressman Adler in 2010."

Runyan is taking a rather unorthodox road to the campaign trail. Last weekend, records revealed Runyan had only registered as a GOPer in the last month, and before that had a sparse voting record. Not exactly the typical profile of a politician chomping at the bit for a Congressional run.

But Runyan's profile as a political johnny-come-lately is becoming more common this cycle.

Atty Paul Huber (R), who's running against Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), also has an interesting voting history: he was a Dem until after last year's WH contest. Only after that race did he register with the GOP.

There are plenty of GOP state legislators, county executives and other elected officials in the mix, but the NRCC has put a special emphasis on outsiders this cycle.

A large portion of these outsiders are physicians. In NY-19, opthamologist Nan Hayworth (R) entered the race late, but she brought $150K of her own cash with her and practically shoved Assemb. Greg Ball (R) out of the contest. Physicians are also some of the party's strongest candidates against Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Lincoln Davis (D-TN).

And in Rep. Dennis Moore's (D-KS) newly open seat, there are several state and local elected officials considering bids, but the NRCC reportedly has been trying to coax neurosurgeon Steve Reintjes (R) into the race.

Throw in roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R), who's running in a crowded field against Rep. Steve Kagen (D-WI), and farmer Steve Fincher (R), who shocked everyone by raising $300K for a challenge against Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), and many GOP recruits are bringing diverse backgrounds to their races.

And this cycle, those profiles appear to be a good match for the environment. The Tea Party movement -- regardless of its long-term impacts on the party -- sprung out of a widespread frustration with DC and "politics as usual." For the GOP to take advantage of this sentiment, its candidates in many places should reflect this home-grown angst. And these candidates do just that.

This is not a strategy without risk, though. First-time candidates, political novices and self-funders don't have great track records in Congressional races. And not every NFL player will be as successful as Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC). Indeed, even though Runyan's name ID is through the roof in NJ-03, he still may have to face a strong primary challenge.

But as the GOP attempts to expand the playing field, Runyan and these others represent a group of unlikely, yet intriguing, challengers. If there ever was a cycle where they'd be successful, this may be it.

(TIM SAHD)

'09 nominee Doug Hoffman (C) conceded NY-23, again, this afternoon. The move comes after a final vote tally showed Rep. Bill Owens (D) winning the 11/3 special election by a 3,583-vote advantage. "The results re-affirm the fact that Bill Owens won," Hoffman wrote in a release. "Over the past three weeks, we nearly cut Bill Owens' lead in half. Sadly, that is not enough. The shift in support since election night highlights one fact; the Boards of Elections, both state and county, need to work closely to ensure the seamless use of these machines in the 2010 statewide and midterm elections."

Hoffman originally conceded to Owens on election night, when over 5.3K ballots separated the two candidates. But as the tally was finalized (and mistakes from several counties corrected), Hoffman gradually gained on Owens, although never enough to truly put Owens lead in jeopardy.

In a letter to supporters just a week ago, Hoffman rescinded his concession, alleging that Dems -- and ACORN -- "stole" the election by "tampering" with ballots. Aides downplayed the statements, though, and Hoffman never followed through with promises to contest the race.

Later in his release, he gave supporters a clue as to his plans of a rematch. "I plan to stay active in politics and in the weeks and months ahead hope to be able to personally thank all those who made this race so close and exciting," he wrote.

(TIM SAHD)

It's been mentioned by a few people, myself included, but it bears repeating: Dems know that if they experience a wave of retirements this year, they're in trouble. In '94, Dems lost 21 seats in which the incumbent decided against seeking another term.

That's why DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has put so much emphasis on keeping incumbents in their races. And he's been largely successful; to date, only Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS, pictured right) has announced he will retire without seeking another office.

Van Hollen has even been successful in keeping Dems out of other races; just 6 Dems are running for SEN or GOV, and most of them hold safe seats. (It hasn't always helped his entire party, as we're sure the DSCC would have loved Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) to run for an open SEN seat.)

But by and large, retirements, if they end today, would only threaten Dems' hold on Moore's seat and those held by Reps. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) and Joe Sestak (D-PA). Then again, virtually no one expects Moore's to be the last shoe to drop.

Thanksgiving and the ensuing winter holiday break are when members go home, sit down with their families and decide their political future. Each year, retirements seem to surge in Dec. and Jan.

A top Dem aide plugged in to the party's efforts to keep their majority says things will only look bad if as many as 20 members retire. That number is higher than anyone expects, but there may be as many as a dozen who do decide against stepping down.

Moore's departure caused a few Dems to panic a bit, and to get a little defensive. If Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO), Leonard Boswell (D-IA) or other entrenched incumbents in GOP-leaning seats start looking for new lines of work, maybe they'll have a real reason to panic.

(REID WILSON)

CORRECTED: RNC member Jim Bopp emails to tell us that the resolution is not intended to take previous votes into account, presumably giving everyone a clean slate. We've re-written the post to reflect that.

A resolution that may come before RNC members in Jan. could have the effect of eliminating several prominent GOP recruits from receiving party money.

The resolution, offered by IN national committeeman Jim Bopp and nine fellow RNC members, would forbid the national party from spending money on candidates who do not meet at least 8 of 10 criteria set down as party principles.

Those principles include opposing abortion rights, opposing same-sex marriage, opposing the stimulus package and cap and trade bills and supporting surges in Iraq and Afghanistan and gun rights, among others.

But, some GOP strategists pointed out, several of the party's most promising candidates would not qualify for party money if the resolution is adopted.

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) has been elected statewide 12 times, including a term as LG, 2 terms as GOV and 9 terms in the House. He is running to fill the remainder of VP Joe Biden's term, and he gives GOPers the best -- and perhaps only -- shot at winning the seat.

But Castle voted in favor of cap and trade legislation, has a largely pro-choice voting record and received an "F" rating from the National Rifle Association. That, under Bopp's resolution, would be enough to disqualify Castle from receiving national party support.

"Setting aside that a litmus test resolution would hurt the party's image with independent voters, it could have real-world implications for the Senate race in Delaware next year," said one GOP strategist. "The idea that the RNC would not spend any resources on behalf of Rep. Castle when Republicans have a tremendous opportunity to win the sitting Vice President's Senate seat is absolute insanity."

Bopp said the resolution, if it passes, will take into account Castle's vote on cap and trade, but that the resolution is worded in such a way as to take into account only legislation that has come up recently. The RNC would take future action into account more than past action, he suggested.

"Since many of these items involve specific proposals that will be voted on in Congress in the next year, we want members of Congress to understand that their votes will make a difference in whether they are funded by the RNC," Bopp said in an email. "We hope that this may influence some to vote the Republican position, since substantial RNC funding may be at stake."

But other GOPers who have come under scrutiny for earlier votes have been challenged from the right as well. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), who would give GOPers a strong chance to contend for Pres. Obama's former SEN seat, also voted for cap and trade. He is lucky Bopp's resolution would not take into account that he led a group of 11 GOP congressmen who opposed the surge in Iraq, has an "F" rating from the NRA and at one time had a 100% pro-choice rating from NARAL.

Kirk has tacked to the right lately, going back on his cap and trade vote, voting in favor of the pro-life Stupak Amendment two weeks ago and vociferously supporting a troop surge in Afghanistan. But the resolution promises to judge politicians by their "voting record, public statements and/or signed questionnaire[s]," which, were it interpreted to include past votes, might put Kirk in jeopardy.

Both FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) will argue their opponent is out of step on at least two issues. Crist signed a state version of cap and trade and very publicly backed the stimulus bill earlier this year. But Rubio, Crist will argue, did little to advance conservative causes on immigration -- another key point of the platform -- and voted in favor of that cap and trade bill.

The measure would make decisions about funding the discretion of RNC chair Michael Steele, giving him the option to distance the party from those who don't fit conservative norms. Steele came under fire for backing Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) in NY-23 earlier this Fall, though he had no practical choice in the matter.

"Under the resolution the chairman makes the determination. I think we can trust Chairman Steele to do so in good faith," said Bopp, who has not always seen eye to eye with Steele.

Bopp may get a vote on the floor of the RNC meeting this Jan. in Hawaii, or RNC chair Michael Steele may succeed in once again blocking a measure that could prove embarrassing. But candidates, and the party's professional class, uniformally call the resolution a bad idea.

(REID WILSON)

Despite being out of power, promising recruits are giving GOPers a chance to impact Dems' agenda in the House, the party's top campaign official claims.

NRCC chair Pete Sessions (R-TX) credits the presence of strong GOP recruits for giving the minority the chance to make life more difficult for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And, as more GOP candidates start looking competitive, the party believes their impact on the national conversation will grow.

"We believe that we are helping control the agenda by having good people who are candidates back home," Sessions told reporters last week.

He pointed to 16 Dems who voted in favor of cap and trade legislation this summer, then voted against leadership in opposing health care two weeks ago. "You can have bad public opinion back home, but if nobody's running against you, you think you've got a pass," Sessions said.

An NRCC aide explained that by getting those Dems to move, their aggressiveness is intimidating many Democratic members' support of their leadership. The aide would not say GOPers believe that means the equally ambitious Democratic leadership would offer a watered-down version of their goals as the session rolls onward.

Sessions said the NRCC has recruited top-tier candidates against 14 of those 16 members.

Dems denied that the GOP's recruiting successes are having any impact on their agenda, noting that both bills passed the House. DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall that he "would have a hard time saying that with a straight face."

Indeed, while 16 Dems voted against leadership on health care while backing cap and trade, 21 Dems went the other way -- supporting health care after having voted against cap and trade legislation.

But GOP recruits are drawing a distinction between themselves and incumbent Dems on those key issues. GOP candidates have uniformly come out against the health care bill that passed the House, predicting that their position is the political winner.

Dems have said they believe their precarious political position will improve once a health care bill passes, but the GOP has made clear that they intend the final product -- passed or not -- to be a major issue next year.

Sessions highlighted tax increases he says will result from the bill, while RNC chair Michael Steele said in an interview the GOP will focus on "three to five things" they would do differently, including tort reform, portability, small business pools and reforms to health savings accounts.

(REID WILSON & ERIN MCPIKE)

"World News" led with the economy. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with a crib recall.

ABC continued to air McFadden's interview 11/23 with ex-aide Doug Hampton about Sen. John Ensign's (R-NV) affair with his wife, Cindy Hampton.

Hampton, on seeking help to stop the affair from the C Street House and the first piece of advice they gave him: "Be cool."

McFadden: "Cover it up?"

Hampton: "No, no. Not initially. 'No, we need help. This is not big enough. This is a United States senator. So even though we're friends, we're close, we're brothers in Christ. We need power to confront this. Senator Tom Coburn, the hit man."

Hampton, on confronting Ensign about the continued affair. "Tom [Coburn] really kind of takes the helm."

Hampton, on how angry Coburn is at this point: "Oh he's smoking. I mean he is one upset man. ... And then John kind of breaks down a little bit. 'I don't know what to say. I made a mistake. I really screwed up.'"

Hampton, on a phone call Ensign made to Cindy, hours after writing her a break up letter: "He is just livid. 'They made me write a letter, but it's not how I feel. Doug has exposed me.' As though, somehow I'm the bad guy in this."

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

After the jump, more on Ensign, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) weighs in on policy, and Rep. David Obey (D-WI) on paying for the Afghanistan war

Good Tuesday morning. We're so close to getting out of here for Thanksgiving! But don't worry -- tune in to Hotline OnCall all weekend for the latest news. If it breaks, we'll have it.

Here's OnCall's Starting Lineup -- the people on the hot seat today -- for Tuesday, 11/24:

RNC CHAIR MICHAEL STEELE: The abrupt departure of RNC communications director Trevor Francis has once again opened wounds among those most closely tied to the committee -- and reminded many of Steele's troubled tenure. The latest bump in the road: Steele had sought credit for GOP wins in VA and NJ, but top officials at the RGA and other party committees, and even in Congress, are prepared to box him out.

Steele has now brought on well-respected GOP strategist Alex Castellanos in a senior advisor role as they search for a new communications chief. Sources tell Hotline OnCall that the list is short -- maybe 3 or 4 names, mostly people with a history of working with the chairman -- but the eventual hire will have to pass muster with Steele advisor Curt Anderson, the strategist who guided his campaign.

The real challenge for Steele will be to stop the bleeding now. But we hear more resignations may happen in the coming weeks as staffers follow Francis out the door.

PRES. OBAMA: After a late-night strategy session with key Af-Pak decisionmakers, Obama is said to be ready to make public his plans for turning the war around. Obama is likely to address the nation 12/1, a week from today, making what may prove the longest-lasting decision of his presidency. It will be the economy that wins or loses re-election for Obama, but the war in Afghanistan will play a key role in establishing his legacy, for better or worse.

And while the GOP stands ready to pounce, they will get a big chance to make headlines and score time on national news nets: Gen. Stanley McChrystal and Amb. Karl Eikenberry have been told to prepare to testify before Congress as early as next week. House Armed Services Cmte chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO) has called for testimony, and it appears he will get his wish.

(REID WILSON)

RNC communications director Trevor Francis has left the committee just eight months after taking over a struggling shop.

Francis, a former Bush admin official who worked at Burson-Marsteller before returning to political work, won quick praise for reforming RNC chair Michael Steele's public relations outreach. Before Francis joined the team, Steele made several controversial comments that led some RNC members to explore options as drastic as removing him from office.

But Francis built a strong shop, led an effort to refute the Obama admin by holding frequent conference calls with newsmakers, and largely helped Steele avoid putting his foot in his mouth.

Other GOP communications experts gave Francis credit for organizing the party's message in advance of GOV wins in VA and NJ, and helping the party shape the narrative despite deep minorities in both chambers of Congress.

"Trevor took a hiatus from a very successful private sector career to give service to the Republican Party this year," Steele said in a statement. "Trevor's talents will be missed at the RNC. We have accomplished a great deal in the year he was here. He worked tirelessly, as did the whole team, on the victories in Virginia and his home state of New Jersey."

GOP sources said Francis clashed with close Steele advisors, and at times with the chairman himself. Many professional GOPers have been quietly critical of the RNC chairman for taking so much credit for this year's wins, though they say Francis was gracious in sharing credit.

"The RNC is losing an experienced and steady hand in Trevor Francis," one senior GOP official told Hotline OnCall. "When the chairman of the party is incapable of adhering to even basic message discipline and committing repeated gaffes in front of the national media, it is understandable why a communications professional would decide its time to sever ties. It's a shame."

Steele is said to have a list of potential replacements, though a disagreement among his advisors over one name could hold up the process, at least temporarily.

(REID WILSON)

Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) is headed to Palmetto Country next month for a two-day campaign swing.

Santorum, who has already visited IA, will stop in Spartanburg, Greenville and Hilton Head to campaign for Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), who is locked in a tough GOP primary for GOV.

Santorum said he is "looking forward to visiting with South Carolina families to discuss the issues that matter to them and the future of this country. Too much is at stake to sit back and not participate in the critical discussion of how to address these issues," according to a statement he released.

Santorum has been openly toying with a presidential run in '12. He acknowledged that a trip to IA in late September was designed to gin up interest in his own political future.

"When you give a speech in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as a Republican or a Democrat, people pay attention," Santorum said on a conference call the day before his trip. "This is an opportunity to speak and lend my voice to what I hope to be a conservative movement and a Republican movement to change the direction Barack Obama wants to take us."

Strategists say SC is a natural state for him to make early plays, given the electorate's more rightward bent. SC has a much more conservative GOP electorate than IA or NH, and Santorum, as a hero of the Christian right during his time in DC, could be a good fit for voters looking for a champion on social issues.

Santorum's trip is scheduled for 12/8-9.

(ERIN MCPIKE)

Three years after winning every precinct in the city en route to a landslide win, more than half of DC voters would like to see someone other than Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) elected next year, according to a new poll that shows support for the young incumbent fading.

Just 43% of voters approve of Fenty's job performance, with 49% giving him a disapproval rating. Fenty, who has been dogged by ethics and transparency stories that include undisclosed family trips and using police escorts to facilitate personal bicycle rides, earns low marks for handling city finances (28% approve, 58% disapprove) and putting DC's interest above politics (30-57%). Just over a third of voters (34%) would like to see Fenty re-elected, while 53% would like to see someone else take the reins of DC government.

In a head-to-head Dem primary matchup with City Council Chair Vincent Gray, Fenty trails 41-37%.

Gray, notably, is also facing a burgeoning ethics issue, after the Washington Times reported last week that a politically-connected developer without a contracting license arranged for repairs and renovations to Gray's home in SE DC.

In a four-way primary matchup with Gray and Councilors Kwame Brown and Michael Brown (no relation), Fenty emerges with a ten-point lead, but captures just over a third of the vote (34%). Gray comes in at 24%, with K. Brown (13%) and M. Brown (6%) drawing nominal support.

"Mayor Fenty's re-election base is dangerously weak for an incumbent going into an election year," said Clarus Pres. Ron Faucheux in the poll release. "While the mayor still has the time and resources to shore up his re-election prospects before the September primary, he clearly has plenty of work to do to win back voters he's lost since the last election."

A fractious primary would seem to help Fenty in this heavily Dem city; the Dem nominee has won every mayoral election since the office was re-established under home rule in '73. But Gray's performance in the head-to-head matchup suggests that there is sufficient anti-Fenty sentiment should that sentiment be consolidated around one candidate.

Clarus surveyed 501 RVs from 11/15-18, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The primary matchup questions were asked of a subsample of 437 Dems, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

The SC State Ethics Commission has charged Gov. Mark Sanford (R) with violating state laws 37 times during his tenure as chief executive, according to details of a complaint issued Monday.

The commission did not charge Sanford with wrongdoing in connection with a trip he took earlier this year to visit a woman with whom he was having an affair in Argentina. But commissioners did find fault with Sanford's use of state aircraft for personal and political use, as well as with money he spent on ticket upgrades while traveling abroad.

In total, 18 of the charges have to do with instances in which Sanford flew business or first class without being authorized to do so. Those trips were largely trade missions to China, Austria, England, Germany, France and other destinations -- including a June '08 trip to Brazil and Argentina, during which he has acknowledged spending time with the woman with whom he had the affair.

Other charges include use of a state-owned plane to transport Sanford to a political event, a book-signing and a birthday party, as well as a family vacation and a trip to see one of his sons' sporting events. Sanford even allegedly used a state plan to travel to North Myrtle Beach for a haircut.

He also stands accused of improperly reimbursing himself or his staff about $2,900, using campaign cash improperly.

The commission will hold a hearing early next year on the charges. After the hearing, he could face impeachment proceedings from a state House panel.

Sanford has been under unrelenting fire since he acknowledged the affair in a bizarre press conference at the state capitol. He held that press conference in late June after returning from a visit to Argentina to see the woman -- a visit during which he was out of contact with his office.

He has never had good relations with the state legislature, including his own party. Many GOPers are leading calls for his resignation or impeachment, while Dems have largely been content to sit on the sidelines.

(REID WILSON)

Key conservatives on the RNC are circulating a resolution that would canonize an oft-quoted proverb attributed to Ronald Reagan while labeling Pres. Obama's agenda as "socialist."

The resolution would prohibit RNC money from flowing to any candidate who disagrees with more than two itemized planks of the GOP platform -- playing off Reagan's maxim that anyone who agreed with him 80% of the time is not 20% an enemy.

A candidate who disagrees, "as identified by the voting record, public statements and/or signed questionnaire of the candidate, shall not be eligible for financial support and endorsement by the Republican National Committee," the resolution says.

Sponsored by IN national committeeman Jim Bopp and 9 other conservatives on the RNC, wording of the resolution is still being discussed, a source tells Hotline OnCall. When finalized, the resolution will be submitted for discussion at party's semiannual meeting in HI.

The resolution became necessary, Bopp said, after the special election in NY23, in which the GOP candidate backed a Dem over a Conservative Party nominee once it became clear she could not win.

"Having the RNC financially support liberal Republicans who are future party splitters is just very damaging to our ability to reclaim our conservative bona fides," Bopp told Hotline OnCall.

"Over the last several years, we've supported [ex-Sen. Lincoln] Chafee, then [Sen. Arlen] Specter, then [Assemb.] Dede [Scozzafava] in New York 23," Bopp added. "In each case, we invested hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, and the result was severe damage to our credibility among conservaitves, and in each case they switched parties, and/or endorsed the Democrat. We just need to have some standards so this won't happen again."

RNC chairman Michael Steele has come under fire from some conservatives for spending party money to back Scozzafava. He has said he had no choice but to back the GOP nominee, identical reasoning to that of NRCC chair Pete Sessions. When Scozzafava suspended her campaign and backed Rep. Bill Owens (D) over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, both Steele and Sessions threw their support behind Hoffman.

The resolution in its current form would appear to give Steele an excuse not to back a candidate, but it could prohibit him from spending money on behalf of others, if enough RNC members were to object. But the resolution specifically exempts money sent to state and local parties.

It is not the first time Bopp has introduced what could prove to be a controversial resolution. Earlier this year, Bopp offered a resolution condemning Obama's agenda as socialist; Steele allies eventually brokered a compromise that softened the language.

Now the language is back, encouraging "Republican solidarity in opposition to Obama's socialist agenda." Steele and centrists on the committee are likely to work to soften language once again.

But it may get wide acceptance, Bopp noted, in that the resolution codifies what centrists and pragmatists have wanted all along: A more open, accepting party.

"By endorsing Reagan's view, ... we are also embracing a principle that the moderates have been advocating for years, that you don't have to agree with the Republican Party's platform or principles every time, as long as you agree with us most of the time," he said. "That establishes our willingness to be open to people of diverse opinion."

UPDATE: RNC spokesperson Gail Gitcho emails a statement: "The deadline for submitting Resolutions for the RNC Winter Meeting is more than 30 days away. At this point, we do not what resolutions will be submitted nor what the final language of any resolution ultimately submitted may be."

A list of the GOP's ten core principles, as enumerated in the resolution's proposed text, are after the jump.

(REID WILSON)

Fans of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) are also, apparently, fans of atty Patrick Hughes (R) -- which could turn out to be a bad thing for the NRSC.

Over the weekend, Hughes won an online straw poll of visitors to DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund website, which gauged which candidate DeMint backers wanted to support in the race for Pres. Obama's old SEN seat in IL. Hughes took 74%, while Rep. Mark Kirk, the favorite candidate of DC GOPers, garnered just 8%, barely over half the number of people who voted for "other."

Hughes has insisted his path to victory over the much-better known Kirk is easy: Appeal to GOP primary voters by labeling Kirk as a liberal, citing Kirk's votes on cap and trade, against a surge in Iraq and for his largely centrist voting record.

And Kirk has already telegraphed the fact that he feels vulnerable from the right: The week before ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) appeared on Oprah Winfrey's television show in Chicago, Kirk asked an intermediary to help him secure an endorsement from Palin, so he wouldn't face embarrassing questions.

That endorsement never happened, and Kirk faced embarrassing questions, though more for the overture than for the lack of support.

The Club for Growth has not endorsed in the race, and they may have their hands full with other competitive primaries. But if they turn their attention to IL, Kirk's cap and trade vote isn't going to win him fans among Club loyalists.

Meanwhile, Hughes is close and getting closer to DeMint; he's met with the rising conservative star twice, and DeMint seems to be openly mulling an endorsement that would once again go against a candidate favored by party strategists in DC. DeMint is asking supporters whether his PAC should endorse Hughes, offering the question after a bevy of information about Kirk guaranteed to make conservatives' blood boil.

But Kirk is the favorite of DC GOPers for a reason: Polls have showed Kirk tied with or leading Dem candidates, while no one has produced a poll showing Hughes ahead.

Kirk has done his best to turn things around, arguing a more forceful conservative line. But he's been criticized by local papers for changing his tune, leading some to wonder whether he's going too far and risking alienating the very moderate voters that let him win a seat Pres. Obama won easily in '08.

One storyline this helps confirm: DeMint is a power among the conservative base, and his popularity is not waning any time soon. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing for the GOP is less clear-cut.

(REID WILSON)

He may be a former member of Congress, but national GOPers aren't terribly thrilled with the prospects of Tim Walberg (R) running for his old seat.

The NRCC reached out to retired Marine Maj. Brian Rooney (R), an atty and brother of Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL), to encourage him to get in the race, according to the MI political wire MIRS and analyst Susan Demas.

Walberg is a member of the GOP's Young Guns program for promising challengers, but he strikes some as too conservative for the district. He beat centrist Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) in the GOP primary in '06, but lost the seat 2 years later to Rep. Mark Schauer (D).

But simply reaching out to Rooney is not a complete repudiation of Walberg: 2 top NRCC officials, chair Pete Sessions (R-TX) and recruiting captain Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), have been taking road trips to districts to meet with potential candidates, and in many cases they have two or three good prospects considering or already in a race. They'll talk to anyone interested in a run, they insist.

NRCC spokesman Tom Erickson told Hotline OnCall that the party is not getting involved in the primary, and that GOPers believe both Walberg and Rooney can beat Schauer.

Still, we've heard rumblings that local GOPers are not terribly enthusiastic about a Walberg re-run, and bitterness between the Walberg and Schwarz factions of the local party could give Rooney an opening. Rooney is no moderate, but those voters may be more inclined to back him over Walberg.

And imagine the situation in which the NRCC finds itself: They have a former member and close ally of the Club for Growth matched up with a current member's brother. No one can envy the pressure the NRCC is receiving.

(REID WILSON)

Good Monday morning. Anyone still in town after the long Senate weekend and before the short Thanksgiving week?

The players we'll be watching, Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup:

REP. DENNIS MOORE: The KS Dem, serving his 6th term, will become the first member of Congress to retire without seeking another public office when he announces later today that he will not run for another term, the Kansas City Star reports this morning.

Moore has a long history of keeping a GOP-leaning district, and if GOPers are going to have a strong year, districts like his are ones they will need to pick up. Winning an open seat is a lot easier than beating Moore, and so far this year GOPers have been frustrated by the lack of Dem retirements.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall last week that the party has an "early warning system" to prevent retirements, and that's going to be an important factor next year: In '94, the unusually large number of Dem open seats gave GOPers a chance to dramatically expand the playing field. If Van Hollen is successful at stemming the retirement tide, Dems may be able to avoid a GOP-heavy wave. But the question is: Will Moore be the exception, or the beginning of a tide of vacancies?

REP. DAVID OBEY: As Pres. Obama debates Af-Pak strategy -- insiders say no decision is likely until after Thanksgiving -- it is the Approps Committee chairman who actually holds the purse strings in the debate over sending more troops to Afghanistan. Obey, defense subcommittee chair John Murtha (D-PA) and Financial Services Committee chair Barney Frank (D-MA) say they want a new tax to pay for the war instead of debt funding, according to a joint statement they released Friday.

The war in Afghanistan is becoming more of a political dilemma for the Obama admin. GOPers will use anything less than acquiescence to the top troop level option presented by Gen. Stanley McChrystal as a cudgel to pound Obama for failing to support the troops. But in accepting McChrystal's option, Obama will irk his liberal base. Add a possible tax to the scenario, and both the rock and the hard place get a little more tricky for the White House to deal with.

Plus, as the public sours on the war, Obama's decision will mean voters see it more as his conflict, and less one for which Pres. Bush can be blamed.

(REID WILSON)

On the Sunday shows: Key Dems say their votes aren't secured on health care yet, and they've got demands for Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid.

Meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Schumer thinks the public option will survive in some form, and Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner's future remains unclear.

The best moments and analysis from our colleague, and OnCall founder, Marc Ambinder.

One more observation: A wise GOPer emails Hotline OnCall noting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R-TX) performance on Meet The Press today. Why, the GOPer asks, is she doing national TV discussing DC issues when she's engaged in a race for GOV in which the dominant narrative from opponent/Gov. Rick Perry (R) is the difference between TX and DC? Doesn't that make her more of the DC candidate, even if she's arguing against the Dem majority in the Senate?

(REID WILSON)

Anyone pining for a second meeting between Sarah Palin and Katie Couric is going to be sorely disappointed.

Sources tell Hotline OnCall that Couric's producer sent two requests to Palin's publisher for interviews during the "Going Rogue" book tour, and so far, Couric has been denied.

It's not surprising -- Palin has not agreed to sit down with more than a small handful of mainstream media interviewers -- but the move looks to be part of a larger Palin blackout from CBS News and Entertainment.

Palin told FNC's Sean Hannity that after an ill-fated joke last summer, there will be no appearances on CBS' "Late Show" as well: "Forgiveness and vengeance isn't mine. I'm not out for vindication, but I'm thinking, practically, economically, in terms of a David Letterman visit, I don't want to boost his ratings so -- no, I have no desire to."

Palin has avoided CBS programming since her '08 interview with Couric, and as of now, there are no plans for any future Palin interviews on CBS.

Couric and Letterman, however, are not the only current or former employees of CBS who have irked Palin. The McCain staffer of whom she has been most critical, Nicolle Wallace, was a paid political analyst for CBS News prior to joining the McCain campaign. Additionally, the "Early Show" is a favored forum for Levi Johnston to expound on the ex-AK Gov.

In July '09, just after Palin resigned from office, the networks descended upon Alaska for interviews. Among those who scored sit-downs: CNN's Drew Griffin, NBC's Andrea Mitchell and ABC's Kate Snow.

No CBS.

Palin addressed those days in "Going Rogue": "We issued an open invitation for the press (except CBS)."

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Dems will spend next week trying to claim the offensive on the economy after rising unemployment rates in recent months have driven Pres. Obama's approval ratings to new lows.

Party strategists see a Saturday front page story in the New York Times as a landscape-altering moment. The story suggests that, though liberal economists said the stimulus was too small and conservatives argued it was too big, the $787B package is working.

Economists, the story says, believe Obama's stated goal of saving or creating 3.5M jobs by the end of next year is on track, although more jobs are being saved than created.

The story, Dems argue, gives their party a chance to reclaim the initiative on an issue that, so far, has worked in the GOP's favor. Surveys continue to show voters are pessimistic about the economy, while one recent poll suggested voters are beginning to blame the Bush admin less and the Obama admin more.

"There is now a broad consensus among economists that the Recovery package was a worthy step that saved our economy from going off a cliff," Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the DCCC chairman, will say in a statement Sunday.

GOPers argue the stimulus still works on their behalf, especially given an unemployment rate that remains above 10% and shows no signs of dropping any time soon.

"If this is what the DCCC plans to go on offense with, they might as well tell their members and candidates to batten down the hatches because they are in for a very long next twelve months," said NRCC communications director Ken Spain.

Spain also pointed to reports this week that accountability over jobs the admin has claimed were created is sorely lacking. Thousands of jobs are listed on a government website as having been created in congressional districts that don't exist, and the GAO cast doubt on whether as many as 50,000 jobs have even been created.

(REID WILSON)

Two key Dems said Saturday they will support a key test vote on the health care bill, giving Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid the 60 votes he needs to begin debate.

Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) said they would back Reid's position in the rare Saturday night vote.

"I have decided that there are enough significant reforms and safeguards in this bill to move forward but much more work needs to be done," Landrieu said on the floor today.

"Although I don't agree with everything in this bill, I have concluded that I believe it is more important that we begin this debate to improve our nation's health care system for all Americans rather than drop the issue," Lincoln added in her own speech.

The two centrists were the last two Dems who remained uncommitted. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said on Friday he would vote for the bill.

GOPers have attempted to portray the test vote as tantamount to voting in favor of the entire bill. The NRSC hit Lincoln, who faces a difficult re-election battle next year, calling her vote "unequivocally" in favor of the bill.

"There's no doubt that this vote will be a critical issue for Senator Lincoln as she embarks on her uphill re-election bid, and the people of Arkansas will have an opportunity to hold her accountable when they cast their ballots next November," NRSC spokesperson Amber Wilkerson Marchand said in a statement.

Meanwhile, GOPers used Landrieu's announcement to hit Reid, who is facing his own re-election fight. Reid included a provision in the bill that would give her state $100M to address its Medicaid budget shortfall.

"As with most deals Harry Reid cuts in Washington, advancing the agenda of the special interests on the left was more important today than protecting the interests of Nevada taxpayers," the NRSC's Brian Walsh said, labeling the provision the "new Louisiana purchase."

Dems have pushed back on the notion that the initial vote is akin to an endorsement of the whole bill.

"Attempts by the National Republican Party and other conservative groups to portray this as a vote for or against this particular health care reform bill is untrue and deliberately misleading," Lincoln said in her floor speech. "The vote tonight will mark the beginning of consideration of this bill by the full U.S. Senate, not the end."

Dems are eager to get health care off the table, and tonight's vote will be a major victory for Reid and his party. But they still have a ways to go before the final product gets to Pres. Obama's desk.

(REID WILSON)

Key Senate Vote: Want to stay in this evening? Sit back and watch the Senate debate health care reform on C-SPAN. Two weeks ago, the House took most of the night to complete their votes. This time around, the roll call in the Senate, expected around 8 p.m., will be even more dramatic.

Biden In Iowa: No politician goes to Iowa by mistake, according to one of our favorite writers. Today, VP Biden will keynote the Hawkeye State Dems' Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Des Moines. Remember his great joke at the '07 J-J dinner, just before the Iowa caucuses? "Hello Iowa," the then-Sen said. "And hello Chicago!" The Obama fans in the rafters went wild.

Meek On ESPN: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) will get a little free media today at the Florida Classic, the largest clash between two historically black universities in the country. Meek played for the Florida A&M Rattlers when he was in college, and he'll be interviewed on the sidelines on ESPN as he roots for his team to beat the Bethune-Cookman University Wildcats. The 30th annual matchup pits the 7-3 Rattlers against the 5-5 Wildcats at 2:30 ET.

Gore For Bradbury: Earlier this week, ex-VP Al Gore waded into the OR GOV race, endorsing longshot ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D) over favorite ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D). Bradbury and Gore have been allies, but BlueOregon, a prominent Dem blog points out what makes Gore's endorsement more fun for the ex-veep: He can't stand Kitzhaber.

(REiD WILSON)

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) -- under fire from conservatives for his famous embrace with Pres. Obama at a Feb. event in support of the stimulus package -- would not embrace ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) today, noting that Palin hasn't offered her endorsement of his FL SEN bid.

Then again, Crist wouldn't say he would accept her support if offered.

Crist's comments, in a brief interview with Hotline OnCall, are the latest indication that many prominent GOPers view Palin more as a liability than an asset -- even if, like Crist, they are courting the right.

Crist has been under fire from ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who has attacked the gov. for his support of the stimulus measure, among other issues. Last week, Rubio earned the support of the Club for Growth, the anti-tax organization.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

A new poll out today from '08 nominee Andy Harris' (R) camp shows him leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD 01) 52-39% in the Eastern Shore-based CD, adding to mounting signs that the environment has shifted dramatically in the GOP's favor in the last year.

Just over a year ago, Kratovil declared victory after a days-long recount gave him a 2,852-vote win over Harris. But a year of tough votes (he voted no on the health care reform bill, and yes on the climate bill and stimulus conference report) -- and the worsening climate for Dems, particularly in CDs that John McCain carried -- have combined to severely damage his re-election chances.

The Tarrance Group poll, conducted 11/15-17 among 300 LVs, shows Kratovil enjoying a 43-30% fav/unfav rating, but 49% of voters say they prefer someone new to represent them, while just 29% say Kratovil deserves to be re-elected. The survey had a margin of error of +/- 5.7%.

The DCCC, like its GOP counterpart, spent more than it took in during Oct., thanks to the expensive NY-23 special election. Still, it outraised the NRCC, as the Dem cmte took in $3.8M last month. It also outspent the NRCC, shelling out nearly $4M (about $1.1M of which aided now-Rep. Bill Owens' (D) winning campaign).

While the DCCC has more debt than the NRCC ($3.3M-$2M), it has a huge cash-on-hand edge. At the end of Oct., the DCCC had $14.5M in the bank, while the NRCC lagged with just $4.2M.

(TIM SAHD)

The first thing a GOPer thinking of running against Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) should consider: Do I have any idea what I'm in for?

Reid faces dismal approval ratings -- the latest survey, conducted by the independent Research 2000 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte, showed just 35% of Nevadans have a favorable opinion of the senior senator, while 54% see him unfavorably. What's more, he trails the two GOP challengers he has been matched against in public polls.

That leaves most political observers to conclude that Reid's only path to victory is to follow NJ Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) footsteps. Corzine, who was never able to move his numbers above the low-40s, sought to criticize his opponent in such a way that made the GOPer less electable than himself.

But Reid will differ in one respect: Corzine began his offensive against Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R) too late, and Christie won the election. Reid has already signaled he will begin his assault early enough to make a real difference. Some GOPers even believe Reid will get involved in their primary.

"Going into this race, I know Reid. Everybody knows Reid, and they know what he's going to do, and not only capable of doing but will do. He's going to get as dirty as you can possibly get," said Danny Tarkanian, a businessman who is polling ahead of the incumbent. "He's going to vaporize us."

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT). The roundtable will feature ex-Amb. Nancy Brinker and NBC's Dr. Nancy Snyderman.

Face the Nation hosts Senate Min. Whip Jon Kyl, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and CBS' Dr. Jennifer Ashton.

This Week hosts Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, ex-Clinton Labor Sec. Robert Reich, Liz Cheney and Aspen Institute's Walter Isaacson.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and NIH ex-dir. Dr. Bernadine Healy. The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and Washington Post's Anne Kornblut.

State of the Union hosts Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, Dem strategist James Carville, GOP strategist Mary Matalin and ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), who backed out of a pledge to resign her seat while pursuing the GOV mansion, used her first TV ad to cast her decision not to resign as a profile in courage.

"I'm going to do everything I can to stop the government takeover of health care, and it's why I'm staying in the Senate through the primary, at risk to my political future," Hutchison says in the 30-second spot. "I cannot walk away while this is pending in Congress."

But the ad, accompanied by robo-calls to GOP primary voters that push the same message, could be another misstep. GOP strategists and political observers pointed out that Hutchison stays entirely negative in the message and never gives a reason she wants to be GOV.

"There is no real positive message here. The ad is about two things: What she's not going to do, and what she's not going to support," said John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College. "Fine, but what is her plan for Texas? What would she do about health care at the state and national levels?"

(REID WILSON)

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has made preparations to avoid a repeat of the GOP sweep of '94, arguing that political observers who say Dems are in for big losses are premature.

"It's going to be competitive, but this is not going to be a 1994 redux," Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall. "We're doing things that are within our control. Now, obviously if you have a super-wave election, that makes it more difficult, but a lot of these elections are decided at the margins."

Not that the '94 wave hasn't been on Dems' minds: Early this year, Van Hollen sat down with ex-Reps. Vic Fazio (D-CA) and Martin Frost (D-TX), two members deeply involved in the '94 elections, to try and learn lessons from that year in order to avoid a repeat.

"We had a thorough discussion to try to learn the lessons," Van Hollen said of the meeting. "They weren't prepared. A lot of people were in denial as late as August, September."

But Van Hollen said danger could lurk if turnout is low, factors that hurt Dem GOV candidates in NJ and VA this year. The DCCC has been working closely with the White House and Organizing for America, Pres. Obama's political organization, to mobilize the voters who showed up last year.

"If you were to see the kind of turnout in the Congressional elections of 2010 that you saw in these off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, that would spell trouble," he said. "But there's no reason to believe that we're going to have that kind of turnout, because voters who came out to support Obama will understand that ... he has a huge stake."

(REID WILSON)

The electorate is more likely to blame Dems for the economic recession in the latest sign that the '10 midterms could greatly benefit the GOP.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows 38% of Americans blame GOPers for economic problems, down 15 points from a May survey. Dems are fingered by 27% of respondents, up 6 points from May.

What's more, even after the $787B stimulus measure, 63% of voters said Pres. Obama has either worsened or had no effect on economic conditions, while 36% say he has improved the economy.

Dems have signaled they will continue to pin the blame on ex-Pres. Bush for the country's bad economic shape. In an interview with Hotline OnCall, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez said his party needs to remind voters how bad the crisis was when Pres. Obama took office, even though unemployment has jumped to more than 10%.

"We will remind people both who bequeathed to the country the hard economic situation we have and who was in power when premiums for insurance purposes went out of the roof and insurance companies were allowed to deny with impugnity," Menendez said. "It will be a clear contrast."

But Bush is no longer in office, and GOPers scoff at the notion that he will play anywhere near the role he played in hurting their party in the '06 and '08 elections. Instead, party strategists point to Obama's approval rating as the key to their success. Some GOP pollsters are already telling their clients to cast the economy as Obama's fault.

(REID WILSON)

"World News" led with the Ft. Hood investigation. "Evening News" led with health care. "Nightly News" led with Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner's Cong. testimony.

Pols discussed Geithner's job performance 11/19 p.m.

Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), on whether he expected it go get so "nasty": "No, I didn't. But, the truth is, sort of tired of blaming Bush for everyone. At some point, this White House has to take responsibility for its own decisions. These policies are failing. The public has no confidence anymore. In fact, a majority of Americans disapprove of the way the president is handling the economy. I think the best thing that could happen is for Geithner to step down. And there's more Democrats joining us in that cause."

Brady, on Geithner's involvement in the bailout prior to taking office: "I think he tries to paper over that pretty quickly. He was Fed governor of New York. Wall Street was his purview. His district, his position, on his watch with his friends. And he had key roles to play in the bailouts from day one. So, again, another reason why the tired excuse of blaming it on Bush, well, it is not me that is not buying it. It is the American public is not buying it" ("Your World," FNC, 11/19).

More Brady, on who he would choose to replace Geithner: "My choice would be a conservative Republican who would let the free market work, would address the financial crisis not from a spending binge, but to get our financial house in order. And the credit for small businesses and mid-sized businesses, it is frozen. And I'll tell you, too, local businesses, small and large, they're deferring their key business decisions because they're frightened of what's happening in Washington, D.C." ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 11/19).

After the jump, more on Geithner, Senators address health care reform and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) book tour continues.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

The NRCC spent more money than it took in last month, thanks to nearly $900K the committee spent on the unsuccessful effort to win a special election in NY.

The NRCC raised $3.4M in Oct. but spent $3.6M as well. The committee spent $897K on independent expenditures blasting now-Rep. Bill Owens (D) in his race against Assemb. Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman.

House GOPers have $4.2M cash on hand and retain a debt of $2M.

The DCCC declined to provide their monthly fundraising totals early Friday. Reports are due today, and the committee is still crunching numbers.

But Dems will have a significant advantage in the money chase. Through the end of Sept., the DCCC had $14.7M in the bank and about $4M in debt. Dems spent a little over $1.1M on Owens' behalf, according to independent expenditure reports.

(REID WILSON)

Good Friday morning. Who's excited for the big Redskins-Cowboys showdown this weekend? With an 11-point line favoring Dallas, we're guessing not Redskins fans.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup on a clear blue Friday, the people who will make news today:

SEN. MARY LANDRIEU: The LA Dem has emerged as perhaps the most important vote in the Senate ahead of the rare weekend session. With Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's decision to hold a key test vote Saturday p.m., Dems need all 60 members to move forward to a debate, and Landrieu and fellow centrists Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) are getting pressure from all sides as they contemplate their vote. But unlike Nelson and Lincoln, who have made positive but noncommittal statements in the last several days, Landrieu has actually said she is considering voting no.

So, what will Reid and the admin do to win her vote? How about $100M to plug holes in LA's Medicaid insurance program? That little treat is included in Reid's bill, the Baton Rouge Advocate notes. That's not the only pressure she will get: VP Biden, who has spent time on the Hill this week, will be making calls today as well.

Overlooked in the debate: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who says he will filibuster final passage if it has a public option, and Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Susan Collins (R-ME). Reid said 11/19 he's had recent conversations with both of the GOP centrists, he told MSNBC's First Read.

(REID WILSON)

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani has not decided whether to run for Gov or Senate, contrary to earlier reports.

Spokesperson Maria Comella, in a statement emailed to reporters, dismisses a New York Times report that Giuliani will not run against Gov. David Paterson (D) and a New York Daily News report that he will run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) as premature.

"Rudy has a history of making up his own mind and has no problem speaking it. When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own," Comella said.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) leads ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio by 10 points, down sharply from the huge advantage Crist held just a few months ago.

According to a new poll from the independent firm Research 2000, conducted for the liberal DailyKos blog, Crist holds a 47% to 37% lead over Rubio. Rubio has attacked Crist from the right, blasting him for not opposing the economic stimulus package earlier this year.

Crist has a wide edge among women voters, but he leads by just 3 points among men. It is the first time DailyKos has polled FL since February, when Crist led a three-person field with 57%; in that survey, Rubio took just 4%.

Now, in general election matchups against Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), Crist leads by a whopping 50% to 33% margin. Meek leads Rubio by a narrower 38% to 30% margin.

Earlier today, we said that VA Gov./DNC chair Tim Kaine was going to have a hard time outraising the RNC this month.

Well, he did. Kaine and the DNC raised $11.5M in October, nearly $3M more than the RNC's $8.8M month.

A party source tells OnCall the DNC will file reports tonight or tomorrow showing $12.3M $12.9M cash on hand (UPDATED 11/20: party actually reported $12.9M CoH in FEC report) and $4.4M in debt. Meanwhile, the RNC has $11.2M in the bank and no debt.

The good month for Dems significantly reduces the gap between the RNC and the DNC. So far this year, the RNC has raised $69.2M to the DNC's $66.3M.

Both parties claim to have set a record for monthly fundraising totals in an off-year.

(REID WILSON)

Several supporters of ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) have agreed to pay the FEC $131K in fines stemming from Edwards' 2004 pres. bid.

Geoffrey Fieger, the former attorney for Dr. Jack Kevorkian and the '98 Dem nominee for governor in MI, and law partner Vernon Johnson agreed to the fines after a criminal investigation by the Justice Department. DoJ was probing whether the two and their law firm had illegally reimbursed individuals who gave to Edwards' campaign.

The FEC found that the pair and their company used corporate funds to reimburse donors to another committee controlled by Edwards. Several purported donors allowed their names to be used when, in fact, others were giving Edwards money.

Edwards himself was not accused of wrongdoing in the matter. But a grand jury is still investigating whether Edwards and several backers used campaign money to keep an affair out of the news.

The grand jury has heard testimony from Rielle Hunter, the woman with whom Edwards had an affair, as well as Andrew Young, a former campaign aide. No charges have been filed.

(REID WILSON)

As centrist Senate Dems study Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's health care bill, some liberal groups are unhappy at some of the bill's provisions.

AFL-CIO Pres. Richard Trumka praised Reid's bill as the "strongest steps yet" toward bringing down the cost. But, he said, the bill still includes an excise tax that would hit expensive health care plans, including many that cover union workers.

"We continue to believe that a tax on working families' benefits is the wrong way to finance health care and we will work hard to eliminate this provision as the bill heads to the floor," Trumka said in a statement. "[T]he bill is not perfect."

Some liberal bloggers, too, expressed disappointment. In a statement posted on the popular FireDogLake blog, Jane Hamsher called it "encouraging" that Reid included the public option but criticized an opt-out provision that would let states drop the public plan.

UPDATED 4:42 PM: Check out our updated post on Rudy's political future here.

UPDATED 3:04 PM

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) will not run for NY Gov after pondering the decision for months, sources have told the New York Times.

The two-term mayor, who ran a failed bid for pres. in '08, had considered a challenge to Gov. David Paterson (D) -- a race polls showed him leading by wide margins.

But the race would have been much more difficult for Giuliani had he faced AG Andrew Cuomo (D), who is reportedly taking the initial steps to run. Where Paterson is viewed unfavorably by a large portion of the state, Cuomo is seen favorably by the majority of voters.

Giuliani's decision leaves ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) as the sole major candidate on the GOP side. Polls also show Lazio leading Paterson, though Cuomo easily beats the former congressman.

Giuliani has been urged to run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who was appointed to fill Sec/State Hillary Clinton's post, but former aides say Giuliani is not drawn to the Senate.

Still, the New York Daily News reported this afternoon that Giuliani will run against Gillibrand. That report remains unconfirmed.

(REID WILSON)

It's a boon for opposition researchers as AG Eric Holder's decision to bring terrorism suspects to trial in NYC has both parties backpeddling on previous statements.

A Dem source passes along statements from Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Jeff Sessions (R-AL) praising earlier terrorist trials in the U.S. Both members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Sessions and Graham spent 11/18 blasting Holder at a Capitol Hill hearing.

Graham, a member of the House in '02, "was pleased with the apparent decision to seek the death penalty for Zacarias Moussaoui," a press release from his office said at the time.

Meanwhile, Sessions told Gannett he backed trying Moussaoui in federal court in Northern Virginia. "'(The White House) probably thought it might be good to try this one in public," he said.

The field appears set in NH after a potential challenger decided not to run for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's (R-NH) seat, with both Dems and GOPers cautiously optimistic about their chances.

Businessman Sean Mahoney, the RNC national committeeman from the Granite State, said he would not run. That leaves former AG Kelly Ayotte facing attorney Ovide Lamontagne and businessmen Bill Binnie and Jim Bender seeking the GOP nod. Dems have cleared the field for Rep. Paul Hodes.

The NRSC has not formally gotten involved, but few in DC have made any secret about their preference in the race. Ayotte has attended several fundraisers with leading senators, including Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, NRSC chair John Cornyn and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Ayotte is positioning herself as a mainstream conservative, while her opponents seek different niches within the GOP base. Lamontagne has sought to portray himself as the true conservative alternative, and his allies have questioned Ayotte's firmness on key parts of the GOP platform. Meanwhile, Binnie is running to Ayotte's left and Bender is a tax and term-limit advocate.

DSCC chair Bob Menendez (D-NJ) said voters will still blame Pres. Bush for hard economic times, and that what he cast as obstructionism will compound the GOP's woes next year.

"The goal for us next year is to clearly not allow that the election be about Democrats being the only one on the ballot, it will be Democrats and Republicans who will be on the ballot," Menendez said.

"It will be a clear contrast," he added. "We will remind people both who bequeathed to the country the hard economic situation we have and who was in power when premiums for insurance purposes went out of the roof and insurance companies were allowed to deny with impugnity."

Meanwhile, GOPers are too reliant on fringe groups like the so-called birther movement, which believes Pres. Obama is not eligible to hold the WH, he said. Those right-wing groups are still angry at DC, Menendez said, and they are impacting GOP primaries around the nation.

UPDATED 9:45 A.M.

The NRCC will launch a tiny round of new television ads against three Dems this week in an early indication of the argument the GOP will make while criticizing the health care bill.

The ads, targeting Reps. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Vic Snyder (D-AR) and John Spratt (D-SC), will cite another Dem -- conservative Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK) -- who opposed the health care bill.

"The worst thing we could do during a recession is raise taxes, and this bill does just that," Boren said in his statement explaining his opposition to the bill. The NRCC included Boren's words in their spot hitting Pomeroy.

The NRCC's ads are notable for two reasons: First, the GOP is previewing the thrust it will make against Dems on the health care bill, citing taxes and the Dems who acknowledged them on the floor. By running the ads now, when the debate is still raging, the GOP takes advantage of a skeptical public that may have moved on to other issues once the bill lands on Pres. Obama's desk.

Second, all three members are entrenched incumbents. Snyder is the newest member; he will run for an 8th term in '10. Pomeroy will run for a 9th term, and if Spratt is re-elected, he will serve his 15th term. NRCC chair Pete Sessions has made noise about going places GOPers hadn't bothered to contest lately, and he is putting his money where his mouth is early in the cycle.

The ads will run for a week. Ken Spain, the NRCC's communications director, declined to discuss how big the advertising buy is. But a Dem source says the buy is just $6,300 -- 35 gross rating points (GRPs) in Charlotte, 55 GRPs in Little Rock and 50 GRPs in Minot, ND. The ads are only running on Fox News.

The DCCC and the NRCC routinely monitor each other's ad buys. Such a small investment can be used to earn media; local papers cover the ads, which can be more valuable than the ads themselves. Purchasing 2,000 GRPs is saturation-level, meaning half the daily audience watching Fox News in Pomeroy's district, for example, will see the NRCC's advertisement once.

Spain disputed the exact numbers but still would not discuss the exact size of the buy.

"Given the NRCC's embarrassing defeat in NY-23 where they spent nearly a million dollars on a candidate that ultimately dropped out, this wouldn't be the first or the last time the NRCC flushed its money down the toilet," DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer said.

(REID WILSON)

"World News" led with changes in breast cancer screenings. "Evening News" led with and "Nightly News" led with changes in breast cancer screenings and featured interviews with Pres. Obama and HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebelius.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) continued her book tour last p.m. on "Hannity."

Palin, on whether Ft. Hood was "an act of terrorism": "I certainly do, and I think that there were massive warning flags that were missed all over the place. And I think it was quite unfortunate that, to me, it was a fear of being politically incorrect, to not -- I'm going to use the word -- profile this guy, profile in the sense of finding out what his radical beliefs were. Simple things like looking at the business card that had the secret code word for who it was."

More Palin: "Now because I used the word 'profile,' I'm going to get clobbered tomorrow morning. The liberals, their heads are just going to be spinning. They're going to say, 'She is radical. She is extreme.' But I think profiling in the context of doing whatever we can to save innocent American lives, I'm all for it then."

Palin, on her future: "You're going to hear a lot from me. So you know, the haters are going to have a whole lot of material. Tina Fey, she may have a whole lot of material coming up" (FNC, 11/18).

After the jump, a reaction to Palin, the latest in health care and FNC interviews Obama.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), a top surrogate for and advisor to Sen. John McCain's presidential run, says she never met vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin during the campaign.

"I have not met her," Fiorina told reporters 11/18 at a DC hotel. "But I defended her against what I thought was sexist treatment when it occurred. I will defend any woman against sexist treatment when I think it's occurring."

In her first visit to DC since announcing her candidacy two weeks ago, Fiorina has been drumming up GOP support, holding a fundraiser 11/17 p.m. attended by 15 GOP sens. "from [Tom] Coburn to [Olympia] Snowe." She also met with conservative groups including Americans for Tax Reform.

As one of several GOPers facing potentially bloody primary battles in '10, Fiorina must walk a fine line between courting the conservative base and appealing to indies. And Palin, embarking on a closely-watched book tour this week, is becoming a key figure in that intra-party conflict.

Good Thursday morning. If you haven't left your house in DC yet, wear a heavier coat.

Here's OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people on the hotseat today:

SENATE DEMS: Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid is a happy man this morning after the CBO scored his bill well below the House Dems' version and below the upper limit for which Pres. Obama said he was aiming. The measure will move to the floor later this week for key test votes and, if Reid convinces his moderates to follow, debate.

But those moderates are the ones who will matter over the next several days. Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) have not committed to voting for the bill, and they are facing intense pressure from supporters and opponents at home. Yesterday, all three met with Reid before the scores were released, and Lincoln sat down with VP Biden at the Capitol.

One issue: Abortion provisions, which are not quite the same as the Stupak Amendment in the House but represent what Nelson called a "good faith effort" at a compromise. And Nelson, in a statement yesterday, sounds like he is already justifying his vote for cloture. That's a good sign for Reid.

The NRSC outraised the DSCC in October, bringing in about a quarter of a million dollars more than their rivals.

The NRSC raised $4 million last month, leaving them with $5.8 million in the bank. The committee has no debt.

But the DSCC is winning the race for cash on hand, keeping $11.3 million in reserve after raising $3.72 million last month. After spending heavily to increase their majority to 60 seats in '08, the DSCC has just over $2 million left to pay off creditors.

Both committees have bested their hauls from previous cycles. The DSCC and the NRSC each outperformed their monthly totals for Oct. '07 and Oct. 05.

Barely a year after their quadrennial conventions concluded, the DNC and the RNC are already beginning to look for cities to host the '12 version.

The process began earlier this year when both committees sent letters to cities inviting them to apply, sources in both parties said. And though no one is rushing to make a selection just yet, several areas have already expressed interest.

Introductory letters included requirements for the minimum number of hotel rooms, convention space and other parameters cities must meet if they are to be included. The RNC invited about 30 cities to attend, and while the DNC would not give a specific number, the party is likely to have settled largely on the same list as GOPers.

NRCC chair Pete Sessions (R-TX) wants to take advantage of what GOPers see as an historic opportunity next year, meaning his committee is aiming to recruit candidates in every district in the country.

"We think a broad brush approach is really going to result because of the environment that's out there," Sessions said in an interview. "We want to have 435 Congressional districts where Republicans are playing in."

Already, the NRCC is touting the prospects of 65 strong recruits, 51 of whom have more than $100K in the bank so far. By contrast, Sessions said, two-thirds of the GOPers who won seats in 1994 had not entered the race by the previous year's governors races, putting the NRCC ahead of that year's pace.

And Sessions is aiming for many of the same non-traditional types of candidates as found success 15 years ago, when many of the first-term members of Congress had not held political office before. This year, more than 150 candidates who have never run for office are running for Congress as GOPers.

GOP voters are more likely to agree with Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) than with those who say they want to broaden the party, according to a new poll.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey shows 51% of GOP voters would prefer a candidate who agrees on major issues even if that candidate has little chance to beat a Dem, while 43% prefer candidates who don't agree on some major issues but who stand a strong chance of beating a Dem.

DeMint, who is gaining credibility as one of the major voices in the conservative movement, has said he would rather serve in a minority that agrees with him than a majority that includes more centrist members.

"World News" led with changes in breast cancer screenings and featured an interview with ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R). "Evening News" led with Obama's trip to China. "Nightly News" led with changes in breast cancer screenings.

Palin discussed foreign affairs and the economy with ABC's Barbara Walters in an interview that aired 11/17.

Palin, on Israeli settlement freezes: "I disagree with the Obama administration on that. I believe that the Jewish settlements should be allowed to be expanded upon because that population of Israel is going to grow. More and more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and months ahead. And I don't think the Obama administration has any right to tell Israel that the Jewish settlements cannot expand."

Palin, on this stance, even if these are Palestinian lands: "I believe that Jewish settlements should be allowed to expand" ("World News," 11/17).

Palin, on what U.S. goals in Afghanistan should be: "To listen to McChrystal, to listen to the appointee that President Obama asked for, the advice from McChrystal gave the president advice and said, 'We need the essentially a surge strategy in Afghanistan so we can win in Afghanistan.' That means more resources, more troops there. It frustrates me and frightens me and many Americans that President Obama is dithering around with the decision in Afghanistan."

After the jump, more Palin, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) on her decision to stay in the Senate and talk about the FL GOP primary.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is finding allies in strange places as Dem-leaning organizations thank him for being the lone GOPer to back health care reform.

Americans United for Change has already launched an advertisement thanking Cao for joining 219 Dems last weekend, and the organization -- in conjunction with AFSCME -- will launch another ad on his behalf, a source tells OnCall.

The new ad, set to begin later this week, is part of a wave of spots defending 13 potentially vulnerable incumbents after they voted for the House health care measure. The groups will spend millions in an effort to counteract negative ads being run in those districts by the Chamber of Commerce and another business group that opposes the reform package.

Good Wednesday morning. Jon Stewart, previewing his interview last night by making light of VP Biden's legendary verbosity: "I should tell you, you can watch the entire interview on the web, if you know what I mean. It's only a 22-minute show."

Here are the people to watch, OnCall's Starting Lineup, for Wednesday, 11/18:

AG ERIC HOLDER: The week after Holder announced terrorists held in Guantanamo Bay would be transfered to NYC for trials, and after IL Gov. Pat Quinn (D) signaled a maximum-security prison on the western side of the state could hold more terrorism suspects, the AG will testify about the decision before the Sen Jud Committee. Holder can expect harsh questioning from Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), the ranking member, and Sens. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and John Cornyn (R-TX).

In a round of interviews aired 11/17 from China, Pres. Obama backed his AG, calling it a "fundamental mistake" to assume that terrorists will be given a new platform from which to spew their rhetoric. But polls show most Americans are not yet on board, making the move Holder's -- and perhaps the entire admin's -- biggest gamble to date.

In an exclusive interview 11/17, RNC chair Michael Steele said he thinks voters still see a party in the process of rebuilding, though it is his job to try and change that view.

"I think they see some of the old vestiges of a party still kind of looking inward," Steele said Tuesday. "I'd like to see people focus on what we've accomplished despite the odds and despite the hot rhetoric about the 'days of the party are over' and all that good stuff."

For Steele, who had a difficult tenure at the RNC during his first several months, the job has been to take a party headed in the wrong direction and turn it around. But for an organization that had spent $54 million through September, that has not been easy.

"I don't know if you've ever tried to turn an elephant, but that's basically what this job is. It is trying to reorient our vision towards the future," Steele said. "It is being the political arm for our policy makers in the House and Senate and our governors. It is being the activist arm for everybody who self-identifies with the party, wherever they are on the political spectrum, and it is providing the resources, not just dollars - it's organization, it's infrastructure, it's manpower - it's all the things that are going to be necessary to turn that elephant."

A GOP congressional candidate said Tuesday that by bringing terrorists to U.S. soil, Dems are handing al Qaeda a "significant victory."

Dirk Beveridge, a business consultant running against Rep. Melissa Bean (D) in suburban Chicago, said in a statement Tuesday that possible plans to bring detainees at Guantanamo Bay to a maximum-security prison in western Illinois amounts to an insult to American troops.

"Providing foreign terrorists the privilege and benefits of our great U.S. judiciary system, is an insult to tax-paying citizens and a slap in the face of our soldiers who risked their lives at the hands of these terrorists, on our behalf," Beveridge says in the statement. A quote atop the release reads: "The Democrats are handing Al Qaeda a significant victory."

State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R) is considering a run against Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT 05) after struggling to stand out in a crowded CT SEN race.

With ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) leading the polls, and with WWF ex-CEO Linda McMahon (R) and ex-Ambassador Peter Foley (R) airing TV ads, there is very little room for Caligiuri to operate in the SEN race.

Buffeted by weeks of negative press and a newly threatening rival from the right, FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) campaign will step up direct engagements with his opponent, insiders tell OnCall.

Crist will attack former FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), citing his rival's failure to advance some conservative causes while leading the state House, for spending excessively while in the Speaker's office and for dragging his feet on immigration legislation that many Republicans favored.

"We're now running a campaign, and it's one where this campaign will aggressively talk about the governor and his record and his vision heading to Washington as a candidate for the Senate, and we will aggressively talk to voters about our opponent's record, a record that was eight years in the state legislature, a record that has not been discussed to date," said Eric Eikenberg, Crist's new campaign manager.

Sarah Palin wants you to buy her book -- but if you donate $100 to her PAC, she'll give you an autographed copy.

In an email to supporters Tuesday morning, Palin dedicates her book to her base, "to Patriots - who fight for freedom!" Palin sticks to conservative themes, invoking Ronald Reagan as the country's economic savior.

But the pitch also makes a poignant case to women, many of whom are most drawn to the former AK Gov. "Please stand with us today. We won't let anyone tell us to sit down and shut up," Palin writes.

It's a pitch her biography lets her make with credibility. While only 43% of Americans have a favorable view of her, a majority of white suburban women do, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday.

Former CNN pundit Lou Dobbs could be contemplating a run for public office in his native NJ, he told Bill O'Reilly 11/17.

In Dobbs' first interview since abruptly leaving his television show last week, he refused to rule out the idea of running for Senate.

"A lot of things are on my mind. I'm not going to be coy about this," Dobbs said, when asked if he was considering a bid. "I can guarantee you 100 percent -- I'm going to remain in the -- in the public arena. These issues that matter so much to me, many of the same that matter to you, are not -- not changing. What is immutable here is, I'm going to remain in the public arena."

Sen. Bob Menendez (D) would face voters in '12, while Sen. Frank Lautenberg's (D) seat comes open in '14. Dobbs lives on a 300-acre farm in the northern part of the state.

It's not the first time Dobbs' name has been mentioned for public office: Last year, he was rumored to be contemplating a bid against Gov. Jon Corzine (D). GOP fundraisers were discussing the possibility of a Dobbs candidacy as late as last June, but he eventually pulled the plug.

(REID WILSON)

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with changes in breast cancer screenings.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) much-anticipated interview on the "Oprah Winfrey Show" aired 11/16.

Palin, on the McCain team on election night '08: "Not so much disappointed that I wasn't allowed to speak, but disappointed that the explanation that I was given why I wouldn't be able to speak ... that VP candidates never give a speech on an election night, and I knew that that was false because I've seen it happen over all the years. In fact, four years prior, of course, that had happened."

Palin, on a '12 run: "I'm concentrating on 2010 and making sure that we have issues tackled as Americans to make sure that we're on the right road. ... But 2012, Trig's heading into kindergarten in 2012. I'm looking forward to that. I'm looking forward to affecting positive change between now and then. I don't know what I'm going to be doing in 2012."

Oprah Winfrey: "Let's talk about the interview with Katie Couric."

Palin: "Must we?"

After the jump, more Palin highlights, reactions to the interview and her book, "Going Rogue."

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Republican activists looking for the latest on MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) on the internet could find themselves redirected to the home of one of Pawlenty's potential '12 rivals.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's Free and Strong America PAC has purchased links in sponsored boxes on Google, meaning anyone who types in Pawlenty's name could instead find a link to Romney's site.

It's not unusual in politics: Type in Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D-CA) name and up pops a link to ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina's (R) site. Try entering Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) name and you'll find a link to ex-Rep. Rob Simmons' (R) domain.

Romney has also purchased ads that will appear during other searches, including those for ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and more generic words like "Republican."

(REID WILSON)

Good Tuesday morning. Have you got your copy of Sarah Palin's book yet? Here's The Hotline's Starting Lineup, the people Washington will be watching today:

Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid: The top Dem in the Senate expects to hear from the CBO just how much his highly-anticipated health care reform package will cost. The bill is expected to come in well under the $1T the House measure, passed last weekend, would cost, giving Senate Dems a boost as they prepare to bring their version to the floor.

The Senate Finance Cmte's version of the bill clocked in at $829B. Pres. Obama has said he wants to keep the price under $900B over ten years. But expect GOPers to claim it costs too much, and leaves too many uninsured, to be worth it.

Leaving aside the GOP, Reid has work to do within his own caucus. He met 11/16 p.m. with progressive Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and about a dozen others who are pushing for a stronger public option, CongressDaily's Anna Edney reports today. On the right flank, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) is demanding a clause similar to the Stupak Amendment, which prohibits funding for abortions. The CBO score is a big step for Reid, but it is by no means the final one.

I just watched the Saran Palin interview on Oprah (on Tivo). And one key question emerges: Who's the manipulator here? Palin or the media?

One thing is clear: Palin is not planning to run for WH'12. She barely skims the surface of policy issues in her book, according to press accounts, and she makes no mention of policy debates on Oprah. Which begs the question: Is Palin keeping the WH'12 story alive to further her own fortunes? Or is the media, terrified of a WH'12 storyline that's deadly boring without her, at fault?

(JOHN MERCURIO)

Wealthy atty Patrick Hughes (R) will be the latest to try and capitalize on conservative anger with perceived centrist candidates when he heads to DC this week for meetings with right-leaning organizations.

Hughes, a candidate for Sen. Roland Burris's (D-IL) open seat, will meet with the Senate Conservatives Fund, FreedomWorks and the National Right to Life Committee during a three-day stay in DC, a campaign spokesman told OnCall. Hughes has already met with representatives of the Club for Growth, the anti-tax organization that frequently gets involved in GOP primaries.

Senate Dems will label opponents of health care legislation "defenders of the status quo," according to talking points circulated among Senate press secretaries Monday afternoon.

Press flaks will play down differences within the Dem caucus while emphasizing "core principles" of legislation the party hopes hits the floor this month. But the memo calls Dem unity "critical," a sign that the party remains more worried about centrists within their own ranks than about GOPers.

It's not a good day to be a Dem in IA. Gov. Chet Culver (D) trails the two most likely GOP nominees, while Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) could be cruising to a sixth term, according to a new poll for the state's largest paper.

For House GOPers, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a familiar punching bag. But after another loss in an election in which Pelosi was an issue, some Dems are wondering just what the GOP is thinking.

In NY-23, NRCC independent expenditures portrayed Rep. Bill Owens (D) as a rubber stamp for Pelosi's agenda. It's a tactic the committee employed against Rep. Scott Murphy (D-NY) earlier this year, and against myriad Dems in '08. But Owens and Murphy won, raising the question of whether using Pelosi's name actually works.

"It's really hard to make a legislative leader of the other party an issue in a particular congressional race," said ex-Rep. Martin Frost (D-TX), who ran the DCCC for several terms during the 1990s. "People tend to decide House races on the basis of local issues and local personalities."

"It's one arrow in the quiver, but I don't think it can be everything. It helps define [a candidate]," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), the former NRCC chair. "The majority of people are concerned about the big issues, and if you use [Pelosi] to the exclusion of other things, that doesn't work."

VP Biden hits the campaign trail for four more vulnerable House Democrats today, continuing his role as the administration's political point man.

In Phoenix, Biden will host a fundraiser for Reps. Harry Mitchell (D) and Ann Kirkpatrick (D). Later, he will attend events for Reps. Harry Teague (D) and Martin Heinrich (D) in Albuquerque. The events come a day after Biden raised money for Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) in Las Vegas. All five could face strong challenges in 2010.

While Pres. Obama has raised money at big events for party committees and for Sens. Harry Reid (D-NV), Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Chris Dodd (D-CT), it has been the veep who's done most of the heavy lifting for House members. Biden has campaigned for 26 members of Congress so far this year, according to a White House tally, and the DCCC's records have him raising well over $1.5m for their Frontline members.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) is viewed very poorly by a large number of voters, according to a new poll released as she begins her book tour.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll shows more than one in three voters view Palin in a strongly unfavorable light. In all, 52% view her unfavorably, while just 43% see her favorably.

More than half -- 53% -- say they would definitely not vote for Palin were she to run for President. That's compared with 42% who said the same about Sec/State Hillary Clinton and 28% who said it of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) as they prepared their bids in 2006. Six in ten voters said Palin is not qualified to be president.

That's not a good start to the week for someone who needs a boost. But Palin is not one to surrender without a fight; her counteroffensive starts today on Oprah, with her nationwide book tour kicking off as her tome, "Going Rogue," is released tomorrow.

The poll surveyed 1,001 adults between 11/12-15 for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

(REID WILSON)

Good Monday morning. Today, Hotline OnCall launches a new feature, the Starting Lineup. Each morning, we'll identify the people and organizations that have the most to win or lose that day, and why their next 24 hours matter.

Monday's starting lineup:

SARAH PALIN -- The ex-AK gov launches her booktour this week, the first step in a run for the WH -- if, that is, she decides to make one. Palin is already going to war, accusing the AP of "erroneously reporting" on the book's contents, in a Facebook note posted early 11/15 a.m.

Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-NC) announced late 11/13 that he would not challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) next year, leaving two other Dems, atty/Obama fundraiser Ken Lewis (D) and '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) still in the race. Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy (D) and '00 GOV candidate/ex-LG Dennis Wicker (D) said this week they may also be interested in running if Etheridge doesn't, and the DSCC might well be on the market for a new candidate, if the cmte is disatisfied with its current options. In fact, the Raleigh News & Observer suggests the DSCC might still attempt to nudge atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) back into the race, even though he said earlier this week that he would not run.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Sec/State Hillary Clinton, Educ. Sec. Arne Duncan, ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rev. Al Sharpton.

Face the Nation hosts Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) and Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT). The roundtable will include Washington Post's Dana Priest and CBS' Juan Zarate.

This Week hosts Sec/State Hillary Clinton and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The roundtable will feature New York Times' David Brooks, PBS' Gwen Ifill, Washington Post's George Will, Mother Jones' David Corn and Washington Post's Bob Woodward.

Fox News Sunday hosts Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Sen. Jack Reed (D-R) and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease dir. Dr. Anthony Fauci. The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, Liz Cheney and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), ex-Educ. Sec. Bill Bennett and Dem strategist Donna Brazile (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" led with the economy. "Evening News" led with swine flu. "Nightly News" led with the Ft. Hood investigation.

Much of last night's TV talk focused on ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) upcoming book tour.

Dem strategist Chris Kofinis, on Palin's tour: "You have, let's see, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, a big bus with Sarah Palin on it. I think the only thing missing is the 2012 logo. I think there should be no doubt that she's running for president, which basically means that the heads of the Republican Party, well, their heads just exploded" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 11/12).

Ex-Educ. Sec. Bill Bennett, on Palin: "She's got loads of talent. And extremely popular. Just worried about the book. I hope there's nothing in the book that's going to explode" ("Hannity," FNC, 11/12).

Al Gore, on how Palin's book sales will affect her political future: "Not necessarily, because there is a big audience for books of this sort. It doesn't always translate into votes. And, again, I don't even know if she's going to be a candidate again" (CNN, 11/12).

After the jump, more on the Palin bookcontinued continued reaction to the Stupak amendment and Ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) discusses her Senate run.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

It was only yesterday, when AP's Bauder reported about increasing anxiety about CNN's lagging primetime lineup. Ex-CNN corr. Charles Bierbauer even said in the article: "We sometimes scratch our heads and wonder, 'Why can't they figure this out?'"

What a difference a day makes.

Lou Dobbs is out, and John King is in.

CNN pres. Jon Klein, in an 11/12 release: "The program will reflect what CNN is all about: straight facts from our anchors and the widest range of opinions from across the political spectrum. John has enthralled CNN viewers with his vast political knowledge, and he has spent the past year reporting from beyond the Beltway on pressing policy issues and the real people they impact. Every night, he'll share his passion and his insights about what is really going on in Washington and across America."

King said he's "thrilled" to "have the opportunity, at this busy and consequential time, to have a platform to discuss and explore the big issues of our time. There is a lot of noise and conflict in our political discourse, which is fun to cover, but I'm convinced from my travels that people also thirst for more details as well as insight and context. I'm looking forward to combining those conversations with top newsmakers, smart reporting and expert analysis."

The show will begin in early '10, and an early -- and missed -- hint of this big move may have been a possible trial run of King on primetime, when he pinch-hit anchored for Anderson Cooper on "AC 360" the week of 10/26.

These words and actions show that CNN brass believes that "No Bias, No Bull" is more than a slogan, but the road to ratings redemption.

Back on 10/28, CNN's Campbell Brown jumped into the fray of the WH-FNC spat, with an on-air commentary, in which she noted FNC and MSNBC's ideological evening bents.

Brown: "Just as Fox News leans to the right with their opinionated hosts in prime-time, MSNBC leans left. I don't think anyone at Fox or MSNBC would disagree with that. In fact, both Fox News and MSNBC are doing quite well in the prime-time ratings by doing partisan opinion. Some of us, like my colleagues here at CNN, are still trying to do journalism. I believe that journalists do have a crucial role to play in challenging our leaders no matter what their political persuasion, and in holding them accountable."

Brown, on opinionated cable hosts: "They validate the opinions of those on the left and on the right. They provoke one another; they fight with one another, and, yes, they entertain us. And in a polarized country, that gets big ratings. ... I'm not critical of what my friends at Fox News and MSNBC do, but it is apples and oranges when compared to what we at CNN do. And we should all just acknowledge that."

Brown, however, did not acknowledge her opinionated then-lead in, Dobbs, and her argument was quickly undercut when MSNBC's Keith Olbermann replied on his show 11/3: "Two words, Lou Dobbs. If you have Lou Dobbs, the out-of-control vintage 19th century horse-drawn fire engine of hate on your network, you long ago stopped trying to do journalism. And we should all just acknowledge that."

Brown must receive comfort with the shakeup, because as opposed to Dobbs' polemical tendencies, the New York Times describes her new lead-in as having a "straightforward style" and the new hour as "ambitious."

The move will likely create better flow between the "Situation Room" and "Campbell Brown," but moving King from the Sunday show mix to primetime appears to indicate that CNN is doubling-down on its weeknight schedule.

King's departure from CNN's "State of the Union," creates more churn in the ongoing Sunday morning show battle. In the past 18 months, that landscape has seen enormous change and could see more with ABC's George Stephanopoulos' possible move to "GMA" and CBS' Bob Schieffer's on-again, off-again retirement plans. CNN has not announced plans for a replacement or change of strategy for "State of the Union."

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Sources say CNN has named longtime reporter/State Of The Union anchor John King to replace Lou Dobbs, who announced his resignation 11/11. King will anchor the 7pm ET time slot. More coming ...

"World News" led with the arrest of a United Airlines pilot. "Evening News" led with the Ft. Hood investigation. "Nightly News" led with Veteran's Day.

During "Lou Dobbs Tonight" 11/11 p.m., CNN's Lou Dobbs announced that he will be leaving the network, effective immediately.

Dobbs: "Tonight I want to turn to a personal note, if I may, and address a matter that has raised some curiosity. This will be my last broadcast here on CNN, where I've worked for most of the past 30 years, and where I have many friends and colleagues whom I admire deeply and respect greatly. I'm the last of the original anchors here on CNN and I'm proud to have had the privilege of helping to build the world's first news network."

More Dobbs: "I'm grateful for the many opportunities that CNN has given me over these many years. I've tried to reciprocate with a full measure of my ability and my energy. Over the past six months it's become increasingly clear that strong winds of change have begun buffeting this country and affecting all of us, and some leaders in media, politics and business have been urging me to go beyond the role here at CNN and to engage in constructive problem solving as well as to contribute positively to a better understanding of the great issues of our day."

After the jump, more on Dobbs, FNC's Sean Hannity addresses Comedy Central's Jon Stewart's footage criticism and Gen. David Petreaus is interviewed.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Longtime CNN anchor Lou Dobbs, whose anti-immigration views have made him a TV lightning rod, announced this p.m. that he's leaving the network.

"Tonight, I want to turn to a personal note, if I may, and address a matter that has raised some curiosity," he said. "This will be my last broadcast, here on CNN, where I've worked for more of the past 30 years, and where I have many friends and colleagues whom I admire deeply respect greatly. I'm the last of the original anchors, here on CNN, and I'm proud to have had the privilege of helping to build the world's first news network."

Two polls out today -- Gallup and Pew Research Center -- gave two very different snapshots of the race for Congress. Gallup showed the GOP candidate leading in the so-called "generic ballot", 48-44%, while the Pew Research Center poll showed Dems claiming a 47-42% lead.

The reason for the different outcomes: the very different results each poll got among independent voters. In the Gallup poll, indies prefer the GOP candidate, 52-30%, but in the Pew survey, the GOP lead shrinks to 41-38%. This far out from an election, the "generic ballot" is not as useful a tool in predicting House and Senate outcomes. Most voters are not thinking about these contests and as such, the results can be quite volatile.

While head-to-head match-ups aren't that instructive at this point, the underlying feelings and assumptions that voters are making about Congress are. And, the Pew poll also contains some big red flags for Dems. Just 34% would like to see most incumbents re-elected, the lowest number since '06, when Dems took the House from the GOP.

Asked whether they would like to see their own rep. re-elected, just 52% of respondents said yes. Among Dems, 64% want to see their rep. re-elected, but just 50% of GOPers and 42% of indies feel that way. Overall, lower incumbent numbers were seen only in '06 and '94 since Pew began polling the question.

Also of concern to Dems is a gap in voter enthusiasm, best seen through the debate over health care reform: 56% of those who oppose Pres. Obama's health care plan characterize themselves as "very enthusiastic" about voting in '10, to just 43% of those who favor the reform efforts. And of those who "strongly" oppose health care reform, 64% say they're "very enthusiastic" about voting.

Overall, 58% of those who plan to vote for a GOP candidate are "very enthusiastic," while 42% voting for Dems feel that way.

So while the Pew ballot test shows Dems with a 5-point advantage, it also reflects the anti-incumbent environment that saw the party lose two GOV races last week.

The Gallup survey was conducted 11/5-8 among 894 RVs, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. The Pew poll surveyed 1,644 RVs from 10/28-11/8, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4%.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the Ft. Hood memorial.

Pundits reacted to Pres. Obama's speech at Ft. Hood 11/10 p.m.

NPR's Liasson: "I talked to White House officials before the speech who said that when it comes to discussing striking the right balance between honoring Muslims who serve with distinction in the military and not allowing people who are attracted to the violent strain of Islam as opposed to mainstream Islam to serve in the military, he looked to George W. Bush as his model, actually" ("Special Report," FNC, 11/10).

Ex-CIA agent Bob Baer, on Obama invoking religion during his address: "I think it was a mistake. If this man, the major, was driven by religion, the last thing we want to do is evoke religion on our part. This is not a war against religion, a clash of civilizations we're fighting. It's a war against terrorism. So to evoke God I think was a mistake on his part." ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/10).

Ex-Bush speechwriter David Frum: "This is a well done speech. And ... it hit, also, on some very delicate matters, like the question of accountability, of responsibility, of the relationship between the killer and his religion and the question of the man's mental responsibility. All of those things couldn't be ducked. They were touched on. They were done deftly. Barack Obama always brings tremendous dignity to this job, whatever else one thinks about him, he is a person of tremendous composure" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/10).

After the jump, more reactions and Bill Clinton meets with Dem senators.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" led with the investigation into the Ft. Hood shootings and featured an interview with Pres. Obama. "Evening News" and"Nightly News" led with the investigation into Ft. Hood.

Obama sat down for an interview with ABC's Tapper 11/9.

Obama, on the Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-MI) amendment: "I laid out a very simple principle, which is this is a health care bill, not an abortion bill. And we're not looking to change what is the principle that has been in place for a very long time, which is federal dollars are not used to subsidize abortions."

More Obama: "And I want to make sure that the provision that emerges meets that test -- that we are not in some way sneaking in funding for abortions, but, on the other hand, that we're not restricting women's insurance choices. ... I think that there are strong feelings on both sides. And what that tells me is that there needs to be some more work before we get to the point where we're not changing the status quo" ("Nightline," ABC, 11/9).

After the jump, pols and pundits weigh in on the latest in health care reform and Obama also discusses 11/3 election results.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Well, it looks like those special elections last week really did make a difference. Without the two "yes" votes for the Dem health care bill provided by newly sworn-in Reps. John Garamendi (D-CA 10) and Bill Owens (D-NY 23), and without the lone GOP vote for the bill, provided by Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA 02), the bill would've gone down to defeat. It passed late 11/7 by a slim 220-215 vote.

In total, 39 Dems voted against the bill, and again, Cao was the lone GOPer to vote for it. The only non-Blue Dog-type Dem that voted against the bill was Rep. Dennis Kucinich, and he did so because the bill didn't include the single-payer option. The rest either sit in GOP-leaning CDs, or face difficult re-elections in '10.

The full list of Dem no votes, after the jump

In his new book, "The Audacity to Win" (Viking), Obama '08 mgr. David Plouffe "recounts the amazing story of how the Obama for America campaign developed and executed its sweeping, unprecedented plan." According to the book flap, "this is the ultimate insider story of what many consider the most brilliant campaign ever run, by the man who helped design it and made it happen." Plouffe takes readers "every step of the way, listening in on never-before-revealed discussions" on everything from "forging a brilliant strategy to win the Iowa caucuses" to "mitigating the damage of campaign nightmares like Jeremiah Wright."

Hotline relied on the time-honored practice of using the "excerpt lottery," in which page numbers are chosen based upon various states' winning lottery numbers. In this case, lottery numbers are from 11/3-4. The results:

"[Barack Obama] and the road show often wound up crashing at Super 8s or single-floor motels in small towns throughout Iowa when the schedule took him far afield and it was inconvenient to head back to HQ. Interestingly, we later discovered that when Hillary Clinton was in Iowa she preferred to stay at the Hotel Fort Des Moines, a historic Democratic-owned hotel, and would often insist on returning there as opposed to staying out around the state. This gave us a small but important advantage -- we had less travel time than she did, meaning over the course of the Iowa campaign we were probably able to squeeze in at least a dozen more events because we did not have to fly or drive back to Des Moines" -- p. 087 (TX's "Pick 3 Night," 11/3).

(see more excerpts after the jump).

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D). The roundtable will feature New York Times' David Brooks, Washington Post's E.J. Dionne, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, Ex-RNC Chair/ex-George W. Bush counselor Ed Gillespie and NBC's Tom Brokaw.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Rep. Ike Skelton (R-MO), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and GOP strategist Ed Rollins.

This Week hosts VA Gov./DNC Chair Tim Kaine (D) and RNC Chair Michael Steele. The roundtable will feature Dem strategist Donna Brazile, ABC's Sam Donaldson, GOP pollster Frank Luntz, ABC's Cokie Roberts and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts VA Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R), DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), ex-New York Times' Jayson Blair, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT). The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, New York Post's Kirsten Powers.

State of the Union hosts Army CoS Gen. George Casey Jr., VA Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R) GOP pollster Bill McInturff, Dem pollster Peter Hart, Dem strategist James Carville, GOP strategist Mary Matalin and ex-USSR Pres. Mikhail Gorbachev.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the Ft. Hood shootings.

Pols and pundits discussed the 11/5 conservative rally at the U.S. Capitol.

Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), on the 11/5 rally: "I don't think they scared anybody. ... I got a chill, really. I just think this thing has gone too far" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 11/5).

Rep. Steve King (R-IA): "This absolutely outstanding grouping of people that we had today at the Capitol. This is organic. It was a meet up. It was spontaneous. And it spoke volumes to the members of Congress. And it's continuing those ramifications on Capitol Hill."

More King: "The Cannon building, in particular, there was a security issue inside that shut down people going in the doors. So they surrounded the building and chanted, 'Kill the bill, kill the bill.' The hallways echoed. And I just said to them find somebody that wears a pin like this and won't look them in the eye and tell them not to steal your freedom" ("Hannity," FNC, 11/5).

After the jump, more on the rally and Rev. Al Sharpton weighs in on the Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) ethics investigation.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

Less than two days after Doug Hoffman's (C) defeat in NY-23, conservatives are rallying to a new race -- FL SEN, where Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is facing a rising challenge from ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) for the GOP primary nod.

The Club for Growth today announced it will begin running its first ads in FL targeting Crist's "embrace of big government spending."

The ad, which comes a day after the gov. told CNN's Blitzer that he "didn't endorse" the $787B stimulus, features footage of Crist telling a crowd at his Feb. appearance with Pres. Obama in Fort Myers, "It's important that we pass this stimulus package." Rubio's camp is also going up with a web ad highlighting the Feb. event.

Club for Growth spokesperson Michael Connolly called the Club spot an "issue ad," noting that his org. did not confer with Rubio's camp about the ad and has not yet made an endorsement in the race. But he added that, in the wake of NY-23, his org. isn't observing a "mourning period," echoing Club for Growth Pres. Chris Chocola's comments this week that the group will make an endorsement "in the very near future."

Asked for comment on the Club ad, Crist CoS Eric Eikenberg said: "The governor shares many of the same goals as the Club for Growth, and he simply looks forward to working with them."

On whether Crist's remarks to Blitzer were a mistake, Eikenberg said, "I don't think it was a mistake."

"He certainly knew that $15 billion was going to be coming from Washington to the state of Florida," Eikenberg said, noting FL's status as a "donor" state and adding that Crist "has made difficult decisions on cutting spending."

Analyst Stu Rothenberg notes that as the '10 landscape comes into sharper focus, there are several other races the Club may jump into, such as Club ex-Pres. Pat Toomey's (R) SEN battle in PA. But Toomey's bid won't take off until after the primary between Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is settled in May. And another potential target, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), has so far drawn a wide field of conservative challengers from which a single strong contender such as Rubio has yet to emerge.

In the meantime -- and until the NY-23 rematch gears up -- expect the tea party to head south.

(FELICIA SONMEZ)

"World News" led with election results. "Evening News" led with the discovery of 11 bodies in a Cleveland, OH sex offender's home. "Nightly News" led with election results.

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) appeared via satellite on the "Situation Room" 11/4 p.m.

Crist, on whether he regrets endorsing the economic stimulus package: "I didn't endorse it. I didn't even have a vote on the darned thing. But I understood that it was going to pass and I wanted to be able to utilize it for the benefit of my fellow Floridians. ... Frankly, I kind of look at it like Florida taxpayers' dollars coming back to the state to benefit them. ... We've go to fight for Florida first. That's all we did here."

Crist, on the picture of himself and Pres. Obama hugging that Ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio's (R) has on his website: "I think it's important to understand where we were at that time. That was back in February, less than a month after the president was sworn into office, the first time he visits our state. And I was pragmatic, I think, about what we needed to do. Everybody knew the bill was going to pass. I, like all other Republican governors, utilized that money for the benefit of the people in my state. And that's what a pragmatic conservative does. ... And I think it's important to understand that you need to fight for jobs, you need to fight for the economy, do what you think is right for the people."

Crist, on rumors ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) will endorse Rubio, and whether she'll make a difference: "I think every person makes a difference. ... It's hard to say. I mean nobody knows for sure. I mean, I hope that the endorsement of Senator Connie Mack, the endorsement of the former Republican Party chairman of our state, Al Cardenas, the endorsement of people that really understand and realize Charlie Crist is a true fiscal conservative."

After the jump, WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, pols and pundits weigh in on the '09 races.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

"World News" led with a Toyota recall. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the NY 23 and NJ and VA GOV races.

Pres. Obama's role in the outcomes of last p.m.'s races was a widely discussed topic on cable 11/3 p.m.

MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R), on VA GOV: "One of Creigh Deeds, the Democrat's, problems was the unpopularity of Obama's policies, not only in Virginia but all over the country. And the fact that McDonnell was talking about the issues that the people in Virginia were worried about. ... There's no doubt that if I'm a Democrat member [of Congress] I look at this and say, 'Okay, Democrats got hurt by these policies, do I want to take that risk?'" ("On The Record," FNC, 11/3).

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen: "The Obama agenda is not on the ballot in New Jersey. It's a governor's race. It has its own set of state issues. The Obama agenda is not on the ballot in Virginia. So these have local flavor to them. There's a lot going on in each state with the governors and the legislature. So I don't think tonight's results can be seen as somehow a referendum on the Obama agenda. Now, a year from now, when you have midterm Congressional elections, it will be. And that will be a true test" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA): "This is a night that is the first report card on the president" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

After the jump, more on the Obama-effect, and reactions to the NJ and VA GOV races.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

The AP just made it official: Garamendi wins in the race to replace State Dept. appointee/ex-Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D). With 29% of the vote counted, the LG led Harmer by a 56-40% margin.

Fox just called the race for Owens. With 87% of the precincts reporting, the AP -- who has yet to call the race -- leads 49-45% over Hoffman. UPDATE: The AP has called the race, and Hoffman has conceded..

With Owens' win, Dems will picked up a GOP-held seat, and now will have a 257-177 advantage in the House.

(TIM SAHD)

We asked earlier tonight if this race would be a repeat of the extended NY-20 election. Well, it's looking like that's very possible.

With over 86% of the precincts reporting, Owens is holding steady with his 49-45% lead. The Watertown Daily Times notes that there are roughly 6K absentee ballots left to be counted in the race, so this thing might not be over tonight.

(TIM SAHD)

Chatter about a potential close race in the CA-10 contest to fill ex-Rep./State Dept. appointee Ellen Tauscher's (D) seat has been bubbling for days. It's surprising, considering it's a strongly Dem seat (Pres. Obama took it with 65%), and considering a long-time Dem officeholder, LG John Garamendi, is the party's nominee. On the GOP side, atty David Harmer (R) is running an underfunded campaign, but he did receive some late help from the NRCC in the form of four mailers.

The early results, with 22% of the vote reporting, Garamendi holds a 56-40% lead over Harmer.

In CA, most voters voted early, so these numbers probably reflect a good portion of that early vote. We'll see if Harmer can close the gap as same-day voting numbers come in, or if Garamendi wins comfortably.

(TIM SAHD)

Boston Mayor Tom Menino, who has already served for 16 years, won an unprecedented fifth term tonight, beating City Councilor Michael Flaherty in the most competitive race the city has seen in years. With 100% of the precincts reporting, Menino led Flaherty 57%-42%, according to the city's election dept.

Meanwhile, Atlanta appears to be heading towards a runoff, with City Councilor Mary Norwood leading state Sen. Kasim Reed 46%-37% with 76% of the vote in. If ultimately elected, Norwood would be the first white mayor of Atlanta in more than 30 years.

Defeated NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D) emerged moments ago to give a short concession speech. He thanked his supporters and his running mate, state Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D). "I love you and I thank you all," he said. He told the crowd that he'd called ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) to congratulate him and that the GOPer had been "gracious." His other opponent, ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I), Corzine said, had added civility to the campaign.

"The people have chosen tonight," Corzine said. "That doesn't mean that the Democrats in this room, the Democrats across this state or across this country don't have an agenda to carry forward."

"There is more for all of us to do," he added. "We may be retiring from politics but we're not retiring from life."

Moments later at his headquarters in Parsippany, Christie came on stage to chants of "yes we can" and "thank you." He also called the gov. "gracious."

"We need to make New Jersey more affordable and we need to do it now," Christie said, asking supporters to help usher in "a new era of hope and optimism" in the state.

The results aren't looking too good for accountant Doug Hoffman (C), but with a third of the vote remaining to be counted, a comeback isn't out of the question. Still, Watertown Mayor Jeff Graham isn't holding out much hope for his candidate, according to the Washington Independent:

"We lost," said Graham. "The Scozzafava endorsement, the [Watertown Daily Times] endorsement of Owens-I mean, they roughed Hoffman up."

Could Hoffman still pull out a win? Graham grimaced. "It's over."

Despite polls showing Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) leading Comp. Bill Thompson (D) by as many as 15 points the week before Election Day, Bloomberg eked out only a narrow victory today.

The AP called the race with 95% of the precincts reporting citywide; Bloomberg leads Thompson, 50-46%.

The race had been called earlier tonight by numerous news outlets relying on an outside source of data, but some of them retracted the call when results showed Thompson within only a few thousand votes.

Bloomberg, despite spending upwards of $100M of his vast fortune on the campaign, may have been the victim of an anti-incumbent sentiment -- particularly in the light of his effort to amend the city's term limits law to allow for his bid for a third term.

"We learned tonight that people do not forget easily," Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-09), who lost the Dem nod for mayor in '05 and considered running again this year before giving way to Thompson, told the New York Times. "And a lot of people, whether they said it to pollsters or not, were offended by the term limits fight."

Thompson had received only a tepid endorsement from Pres. Obama and the WH. And other statewide Dems -- Gov. David Paterson and Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand -- endorsed Thompson but refused to criticize Bloomberg.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

GOPers may have swept the three statewide offices in VA, but they also appear to have netted 2-4 seats in the House of Delegates, padding their current majority of 55-45 (including indies who caucus with the GOP.) Will Gov-elect Bob McDonnell (R) look to appoint one or more Dem state senators to other office, hoping to force special elections and reverse the 21-19 Dem majority? Redistricting is right around the corner. Of course, Dems will first have a shot at picking up AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli's (R) state Senate seat, once he resigns. He only won by 92 votes in '07, so expect a competitive special election there. [QUINN MCCORD]

As the results from tonight's races roll in, The Hotline has tallied a stumping scorecard for both Pres. Obama and his potential rivals in '12. Whose chosen candidates won? And whose lost? Who has the best track record thus far? The following is a list of the '09 candidates that Obama and potential WH '12ers have physically stumped for in the candidate's CD/state:

Owens is still hanging on to his 49-45% lead here, with 63% of the precincts reporting.

Hoffman's problem continues to be Scozzafava's base.

In '08, when John McHugh was re-elected with 65%, he won Jefferson Co. by a 3-1 margin. Tonight, with nearly all the precincts from that county reporting, Owens leads 49-45%. And in St. Lawrence Co., with nearly 40% of the precincts reporting, Owens has opened up a 55-40% lead. In '08, McHugh won it by a nearly 2-1 margin.

In the last Siena poll released on Sun -- which Hoffman led by 5% -- he tied Owens in this area. He's going to need to pick it up with the remaining vote if he's going to pull this out.

(TIM SAHD)

Atty Bill Owens (D) leads in the early count (27% of precincts reporting) by a 51-44% advantage over accountant Doug Hoffman (C). Some keys to Owens' early success: He's taking his home, Clinton Co., with 57%, and also slightly winning Jefferson and St. Lawrence Cos -- places where Hoffman needs to do very well.

Jefferson and St. Lawrence Cos are traditionally GOP strongholds, but they're also Assemb. Dede Scozzafava's (R) base. If Owens continues to do well in these counties, Hoffman will be in trouble. But it's still very early.

(TIM SAHD)

AP's Fournier tweets ...

MSNBC's Maddow announced moments ago that the net was retracting their call for Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I). AP and the New York Times had also called the race for Hizzoner.

With 34% of the precincts reporting, Bloomberg leads Comp. Bill Thompson (D) by less than 2K votes, 49-48%.

Maddow reported Thompson had called Bloomberg to concede, but the Thompson camp told WNBC-TV that they were not yet conceding the race.

With 58% of precincts reporting, ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) is leading Gov. Jon Corzine (D) by 6 points, 50%-44%, with ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I) getting 5%. In Bergen Co., a must-win for GOPers in a statewide contest, Christie is still up by some 1K votes with 439 of 553 precincts reporting. It's not an insurmountable lead, but Dems in NJ and DC are nervous.

Meanwhile, Daggett is currently delivering a concession speech from his Basking Ridge HQ.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) won re-election today, a little over a year after he signed a controversial bill that changed the city's term limits law and allowed him to seek a third term.

With just 6% of the precincts reporting, Bloomberg leads Comp. Bill Thompson (D), 53-44%. WNBC-TV is reporting that their parent network has called the race for Bloomberg.

Bloomberg shattered his own record for personal campaign spending for U.S. political office. Through 10/15, he had contributed more than $85M to his own campaign, and he was well on his way to breaking the $100M mark.

Thompson, meanwhile, had spent just $6.6M as of the latest filing deadline, pocketing a little over $3M in public matching funds.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

NBC's Todd, on whether these elections are referendums on Pres. Obama: "Nobody ran against Obama this campaign. There's a lot of talk of 'Is this a referendum or not? Did he have enough coat tails?' I think those are real questions. Bob McDonnell did not run against Barack Obama. Chris Christie did not run against Barack Obama" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/3).

Ex-WH dep. CoS Karl Rove, on whether Dems are correct that this is not a referendum on Obama: "No, especially since there are prominent Democrats who said just the opposite. President Bill Clinton said this was going to be a referendum on President Obama and his policies, and for once I agree with Bill Clinton, and it is" ("Hannity," FNC, 11/3).

House Min. Whip Eric Cantor weighed in on the VA GOV race on "Hardball" this p.m.

Cantor, on ex-AG Bob McDonnell's (R) victory: "This is a warning shot to the moderate Democrats to say, 'Hey, wait a minute, maybe we ought to try another way. Maybe there is a better way."

If the race is close in NY-23, we may not have a winner tonight. That's because four precincts in St. Lawrence Co. have experienced technical difficulties with their new voting machines, and because Fulton Co. -- with its 24 precincts -- will not make all of its results available to the media until tomorrow.

Anyway, just something to mull as we await the polls to close in five minutes.

AP, nets call ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) the winner of VA GOV.

According to early exit poll data released by CNN, ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) leads Gov. Jon Corzine among indie voters, 58-33%. Indies make up 27% of the electorate thus far today.

For comparison, the latest Monmouth Univ. poll -- which had an overall two-point lead for Corzine -- showed Christie beating Corzine among indies by a narrower margin, 43-33%. Some of ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett's supporters and undecided voters seem to have drifted to Christie and not to Corzine, according to the exits.

By NJ standards, indies trend slightly to the right. Indies made up 28% of the '08 electorate, and Pres. Obama won them, 51-47%. He won statewide, 57-42%.

One small nugget from the NJ exits that have been released thus far: Among Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) supporters, 77% said their vote was mainly to support Corzine, while 20% said their vote for Corzine was against his opponents.

The nature of ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie's (R) support is much more anti-Corzine: 42% of his voters are voting mainly against Christie's opponents -- Corzine and ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I). Just 55% are voting mainly to support Christie.

Exit polls show a more polarized electorate than in '08, but ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R) leads due to a strong showing among indie voters.

This year, according to CNN, state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) leads McDonnell, 94-6%, among Dems. According to '08 exits, Pres. Obama beat Sen. John McCain among these voters, 92-8%.

McDonnell has a 95-5% lead among GOPers. McCain won GOPers in '08, 92-8%.

The first, early exit poll results from NJ and VA are now trickling in from various media outlets.

NJ voters ranked the economy and jobs as their No. 1 issue, with 31% of voters telling pollsters that issue mattered most to them. The No. 2 issue was property taxes (26%), and corruption (20%) was No. 3. Polling has shown the focus on property taxes and corruption are stronger areas for ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) than for Gov. Jon Corzine (D). Health care was No. 4 with 18%.

In VA, the economy and jobs (46%) far outpaced health care (25%), taxes (14%) and transportation (8%).

A majority of voters in both states said, for the most part, that Pres. Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. In NJ, 60% said Obama's support of Corzine didn't play a role either way, which 55% of VA voters said they didn't consider Obama's embrace of state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) when deciding how to vote.

Of voters who said Obama's support did play a role, 19% of NJ voters said they were voting to support Obama, while 20% said they were voting to oppose him. In VA, 18% were seeking to support Obama while 24% voted as an expression of opposition to Obama.

Polls close in VA at 7 p.m. EST, while voting continues until 8 p.m. EST in NJ.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

Besides the usual election day hijincks -- a supporter of accountant Doug Hoffman (C) was apparently seen at a polling place "covered with Hoffman stickers and yelling anti-choice stuff at voters" -- things have been pretty quiet up in New York 23.

Much has been made of the GOP's "Tea Party" wing having a big effect on this race, and to emphasize just how importantly conservatives are taking this race, take a look at who has ventured up to the CD to help GOTV for Hoffman. That's ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO), a social conservative stalwart who lost her re-election last year and who now works for the pro-life Susan B. Anthony list.

We'll see soon if the grassroots' support pays off for Hoffman tonight, or if Assemb. Dede Scozzafava's (R) last-minute drop-out-and-endorsement of atty Bill Owens (D) will give Dems a come-from-behind victory. Polls close at 9 p.m., and results will trickle in shortly after that.

(TIM SAHD)

"World News" led with Ford Motor Co. earning a profit this quarter. "Evening News" led with Ford Motor Co. earning a profit this quarter and featured Al Gore. "Nightly News" led with Ford Motor Co. earning a profit this quarter.

Accountant Doug Hoffman (C) appeared on "Hannity" 11/2 p.m.

Hoffman, on why the GOP gave the nod to a liberal GOPer: "I guess we'll never know. The only thing I can say is that it was just party politics behind closed doors, and the bosses just decided to just anoint somebody that was there."

Hoffman, on whether he understood why Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) was the GOP nominee: "I did not either, and that is why I decided to run. I thought the voters in the district would not have a good choice if I did not put my hat in the ring, and I felt that I had to do it."

Hoffman, on Scozzafava's Dem endorsement: "Absolutely. It's exactly what I was saying when I got in this race. And it just proved that I was correct. She was more liberal than the Democrat" (FNC, 11/2).

After the jump, more on NY-23 and WH staffers go into the "Situation Room."

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)

With voters going to the polls in a number of competitive races on 11/3, small differences in turnout could prove to be decisive. With that in mind, here's a quick look at the weather that voters can expect in the day's six most important races.

VA GOV: A weak cold front will pass through the commonwealth on 11/3, though it is not expected to bring any precipitation. The forecast: Sun and clouds, highs 55-65.

NJ GOV: The same front could produce a stray shower. The forecast: More clouds than sun, possible shower, highs 51-61.

NYC Mayor: Ditto. The forecast: Cloudy, with showers possible, highs near 60.

NY-23: The front will have passed through the North Country overnight, but some lake-enhanced rain showers are possible in its wake. The forecast: Cloudy with showers possible, highs 45-55.

ME gay marriage initiative: The very same front will move through the state with plenty of cold air behind it. The forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers, highs 42-55.

CA-10: A ridge of high pressure will provide a "Chamber-of-Commerce" day in the CD. The forecast: Sunny, highs 75-80.

(STEVEN SHEPARD)

ELECTION NIGHT TV PLANS

Several nets have released plans for their Election Night coverage.

-CNN: Wolf Blitzer will provide live cut-ins from DC as soon as polls begin to close. CNN reporters and pundits will appear both in-studio and from the battlegrounds to discuss results, as well as the one-year anniversary of Pres. Obama's election.

-FBN: will provide live coverage beginningat 8pmET with Neil Cavuto anchoring. He will be joined by ex-NJ Gov Christie Todd Whitman (R), ex-NJ Gov. James Florio (D), Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ), ex-Gov./ex-Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and others.

-FNC: Shepard Smith and Bret Baier will lead coverage beginning at 6pmET and will include reports on the ground and in Washington. They will be joined by FNC's Brit Hume, Dem consultant/FNC commentator Bob Beckel, NPR's Juan Williams, Ex-WH dep. CoS Karl Rove, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, Dem strategist Joe Trippi, UVA's Larry Sabato and U.S. News & World Report senior writer/"Almanac of American Politics" principal co-author Michael Barone. At 8pmET, FNC will have regularly scheduled broadcasts with special updates from Smith and Baier. From 10 to 11pmET, Greta Van Susteren will be joined by Smith and Baier for a special edition of "On the Record" (Hotline sources, 11/2).

-MSNBC: NBC's Chuck Todd anchors from Washington at 11amET and 2pmET and MSNBC's Ed Schultz anchors at 4pmET. Additionally, in the evening MSNBC will cover the races within the regular lineup and air an additional special live "Countdown" at 10pmET and "Rachel Maddow Show" at 11pmET with analysis of the election results.

-ABC's "Nightline" will report on the results at 11:35pmET.

-NJN, NJ Public TV and Radio, will stream live video with blanket coverage at 8pmET, and you can find more information here.

(ABBY LIVINGSTON)

NORTH BERGEN, N.J. -- Gov. Jon Corzine (D) spent the weekend touting his progressive agenda and urging Dems to get to the polls 11/3. On 10/30, Corzine talked health care and the environment at a north Jersey rally with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL 20) and activist Bobby Kennedy Jr. The next day, he made a stop in Union City and gave a speech about gun control. "Elections matter because people stand for different things that separate them and voters have a choice," Corzine told a small group of Dem officials gathered at the Firefighter's Memorial Park, adding that his opponent had a "poor stance" on gun control.

Getting guns off the street is what's on the ballot Tuesday, the gov. said, "just like preschool is on the ballot, just like making sure that we have health care for our kids is on the ballot. And so I am pleased that we are making the distinction very clear for the voters."

But it seems few voters now have any confusion about the "distinction" between Corzine and ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R). Polls show their support has solidified in recent weeks. So rather than a persuasive closing argument, the outcome of the 11/3 vote could best be determined by turnout levels and the performance of ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I).

Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) may be crossing party lines to support atty Bill Owens (D), but her now ex-mgr Matt Burns isn't going along with that decision. "Dede is entitled to her own opinion, as is everyone, but I obviously disagree with her decision," Burns told us today, a day after leaving the campaign. "I am supporting Doug Hoffman, because denying Nancy Pelosi another foot soldier is vital to restoring fiscal responsibility and common sense in Washington."

Burns, who was raised in the CD but is now based in MN, said he decided to join Scozzafava's team in order to keep the Dem-trending seat in GOP hands. "In her heart of hearts, she's a good person. She's a capable legislator," Burns said. "But I don't think supporting a candidate who would back Nancy Pelosi is the best way to get our nation on the right track."

He said Scozzafava first considered getting out of the race 10/30, but after the 10/31 Siena poll revealed her stock plummeting, and her unfavorable ratings rising, she decided to leave the race. Burns said the decision came down to the candidate's lack of resources. "You need money to respond charges, and we were not in a position to do that," Burns said.

Still, Burns -- a self-described conservative -- said he sides with many GOPers who say the party needs to recruit both moderates and conservatives if it expects to pick up seats in '10. He said he agrees with ex-Speaker/ex-Scozzafava backer Newt Gingrich (R) that the party needs to find candidates that fit their districts. Burns: "Otherwise, it's going to be tough to take back the House."

(TIM SAHD)

Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) -- who had reportedly been telling those close to her to support atty Bill Owens (D) -- has now publicly backed the Dem in Tuesday's special election.

From Scozzafava's release to the Watertown Daily Times:

It's not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.

In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.

Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There's too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.

Two tidbits from today's papers give us an indication of where Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R), who left the NY-23 special election yesterday, wants her supporters to go on 11/3. And, not shockingly, it's not accountant Doug Hoffman (C).

First, in a Watertown Daily Times' editorial switching its endorsement from Scozzafava to atty Bill Owens (D), the Daily Times notes that Scozzafava "began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for" Owens after her withdrawal announcement 10/31.

And, according to the New York Post, Scozzafava's husband -- Central Labor Council pres. Ron McDougall -- wholeheartedly endorsed Owens late last p.m. McDougall: "As a life-long labor activist, I know that Bill Owens understands the issues important to working people. On the other hand, Doug Hoffman has little regard for the interests of workers. Hoffman's opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, coupled with his support for the failed policies of the Bush Administration make him a poor choice to serve the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District."

Also following McDougall and the Daily Times in switching from the Scozzafava to the Owens camp are several other unions, including the UAW. Will these labor orgs, which have experienced GOTV operations, be enough to counterbalance the support that Hoffman will get from Scozzafava's departure?

(TIM SAHD)