Anatomy Of An Attack: Does Using Pelosi Actually Work?

For House GOPers, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a familiar punching bag. But after another loss in an election in which Pelosi was an issue, some Dems are wondering just what the GOP is thinking.

In NY-23, NRCC independent expenditures portrayed Rep. Bill Owens (D) as a rubber stamp for Pelosi's agenda. It's a tactic the committee employed against Rep. Scott Murphy (D-NY) earlier this year, and against myriad Dems in '08. But Owens and Murphy won, raising the question of whether using Pelosi's name actually works.

"It's really hard to make a legislative leader of the other party an issue in a particular congressional race," said ex-Rep. Martin Frost (D-TX), who ran the DCCC for several terms during the 1990s. "People tend to decide House races on the basis of local issues and local personalities."

"It's one arrow in the quiver, but I don't think it can be everything. It helps define [a candidate]," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), the former NRCC chair. "The majority of people are concerned about the big issues, and if you use [Pelosi] to the exclusion of other things, that doesn't work."

GOP pollsters and strategists maintain the speaker is a good way to tie incumbents to negative feelings about Washington, an important tactic when Congress' approval rating hovers at or below 30%.

In NY, "you didn't have a Democrat incumbent to link her to," said GOP pollster Jon McHenry. "[Rep.] Tom Perriello (D-VA), having voted for the House bill, you're going to see a bunch of ads accusing him of having voted for Nancy Pelosi's health care bill."

Some Dems recognize that Pelosi is more of a tool to help the GOP rebuild a broken base. The latest survey that tested her popularity, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted 10/22-25, showed just 26% of voters had a favorable impression of her, while 42% had a negative impression.

But most Dems still say she is unlikely to be a major issue among independent and swing voters.

"[The GOP] will use her for sure. She is a polarizing symbol and very much a motivator for the Republican base," said Andrew Myers, the Dem pollster. Still, he added, Pelosi is "far less identified" among independent voters.

"I see the Pelosi attack as a way to rally your base. I don't think it reaches independents, and I don't think it works at all on Democrats you might be able to reach," Cole said. "You can't be a one-note Johnny."

Too, added Frost and Dem pollster John Anzalone, talking about a Speaker of the House hasn't worked in the past. They cite ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, the target of constant Dem attacks in the '90s.

"Dems never won a single race attaching Newt and I doubt that [GOPers] will win any attacking Pelosi. At the end of the day it is off message," said Anzalone, who has worked for both Pres. Obama and conservative southern Dems, in an email. "When [Rep.] Bobby Bright (D-AL) is able to say he is the most conservative Democrat in Congress and has voted against Pelosi more than any congressman, it is hard to make a Pelosi attachment stick."

GOPers acknowledge they won't be able to use Pelosi in Dem-held districts in several regions, but one strategist called her "an important piece of the puzzle," especially in districts held by conservative Dems like Bright and Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS).

"We ought to give it a shot," GOP pollster Glen Bolger said when asked whether to attack Pelosi. "She has very high unfavorables and very high [name] I.D."

"She's easy to tag as a San Francisco liberal, in the same way some [GOP] speakers have been tagged Southern conservatives," McHenry added. "I have a hard time believing she's going to get more popular in those moderate to conservative districts."

(REID WILSON)