GOP Claims Candidates Influencing Dem Agenda

Despite being out of power, promising recruits are giving GOPers a chance to impact Dems' agenda in the House, the party's top campaign official claims.

NRCC chair Pete Sessions (R-TX) credits the presence of strong GOP recruits for giving the minority the chance to make life more difficult for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And, as more GOP candidates start looking competitive, the party believes their impact on the national conversation will grow.

"We believe that we are helping control the agenda by having good people who are candidates back home," Sessions told reporters last week.

He pointed to 16 Dems who voted in favor of cap and trade legislation this summer, then voted against leadership in opposing health care two weeks ago. "You can have bad public opinion back home, but if nobody's running against you, you think you've got a pass," Sessions said.

An NRCC aide explained that by getting those Dems to move, their aggressiveness is intimidating many Democratic members' support of their leadership. The aide would not say GOPers believe that means the equally ambitious Democratic leadership would offer a watered-down version of their goals as the session rolls onward.

Sessions said the NRCC has recruited top-tier candidates against 14 of those 16 members.

Dems denied that the GOP's recruiting successes are having any impact on their agenda, noting that both bills passed the House. DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall that he "would have a hard time saying that with a straight face."

Indeed, while 16 Dems voted against leadership on health care while backing cap and trade, 21 Dems went the other way -- supporting health care after having voted against cap and trade legislation.

But GOP recruits are drawing a distinction between themselves and incumbent Dems on those key issues. GOP candidates have uniformly come out against the health care bill that passed the House, predicting that their position is the political winner.

Dems have said they believe their precarious political position will improve once a health care bill passes, but the GOP has made clear that they intend the final product -- passed or not -- to be a major issue next year.

Sessions highlighted tax increases he says will result from the bill, while RNC chair Michael Steele said in an interview the GOP will focus on "three to five things" they would do differently, including tort reform, portability, small business pools and reforms to health savings accounts.

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"We're going to roll it back. [House Min. Leader] John Boehner and Pete Sessions are going to roll this back and somebody's going to be a part of that team, and they're going to go and oppose that, and we're going to go to Washington and take this massive tax off small business, and we're going to restore the Medicare cuts," Sessions said, previewing the position his candidates will take next year.

GOPers hope that by promoting their opposition to the bill early enough, they can take advantage of attention voters are paying at the moment. The strategy was in full view in August, when about a dozen prominent GOP challengers held town hall meetings, explaining their opposition to the health care proposals then pending before the House.

And while those candidates have already taken advantage of some anger over health care reform, more could do so in the future, Sessions said. He noted that, in '93, two-thirds of the 74 GOPers who won House seats the following year had not filed by the time VA and NJ GOV races were decided. If more prominent recruits take the results of the '09 elections as a sign of the national landscape and their chances to win, GOPers hope their ability to influence the agenda will only grow.