GOPers Brace For Reid Assault

The first thing a GOPer thinking of running against Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) should consider: Do I have any idea what I'm in for?

Reid faces dismal approval ratings -- the latest survey, conducted by the independent Research 2000 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte, showed just 35% of Nevadans have a favorable opinion of the senior senator, while 54% see him unfavorably. What's more, he trails the two GOP challengers he has been matched against in public polls.

That leaves most political observers to conclude that Reid's only path to victory is to follow NJ Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) footsteps. Corzine, who was never able to move his numbers above the low-40s, sought to criticize his opponent in such a way that made the GOPer less electable than himself.

But Reid will differ in one respect: Corzine began his offensive against Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R) too late, and Christie won the election. Reid has already signaled he will begin his assault early enough to make a real difference. Some GOPers even believe Reid will get involved in their primary.

"Going into this race, I know Reid. Everybody knows Reid, and they know what he's going to do, and not only capable of doing but will do. He's going to get as dirty as you can possibly get," said Danny Tarkanian, a businessman who is polling ahead of the incumbent. "He's going to vaporize us."

Earlier this week, former NV GOP chair Sue Lowden, another candidate leading Reid in the polls, criticized the incumbent for work his opposition researchers are already doing. Reid staffers are looking into businesses Lowden and her husband ran over the last two decades, apparently examining instances of food poisoning at four casinos the Lowdens owned between '87 and '05.

"It's not just a feeling that he's going to go negative. People know that his only chance of winning another 6-year term is to make Sue Lowden more unelectable than [Reid] already is," said Robert Uithoven, Lowden's consultant.

Brandon Hall, Reid's campaign manager, defended the opposition research as standard operating procedure. And, he noted, GOPers clearly have been itching to take on Reid, and each other.

"The national Republicans have made Sen. Reid their number one target this cycle, and every Republican in this race has gone negative on Sen. Reid every day since their announcement," Hall said. "Just like every other campaign, we've been doing research on our potential opponents, and the Republicans have been doing research as well."

In interviews, Lowden, Tarkanian and John Chachas, another businessman thinking about getting into the race, have all assailed Reid's role as the head of his party in DC. But, some admit, Reid's strategy will present them with a challenge.

"It's going to be difficult not to be in constant response mode," Uithoven said. "It's going to be tough to not only counter, but stay on the offensive."

Some candidates have found it effective to try and choose their own challenger. Ex-CA Gov. Gray Davis (D) ran ads in the '02 GOP primary assailing ex-L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan (R). Riordan, a centrist who was polling strongly against Davis, lost the primary to the much more conservative Bill Simon. Davis beat Simon by 5 points in the general election.

Each GOPer has their flaws: Tarkanian has lost two races for public office already. Lowden has been roundly criticized for her tenure at the state party, and her business background has proven fertile ground for opposing researchers. And Chachas, who grew up in NV but lives in NY, will have lived in the state for less than a year by the time Election Day rolls around. The candidates have already begun sniping at each other, as well.

GOPers expect Reid to get involved, though Hall would not reveal the campaign's plans. Still, the campaign has so far focused solely on Lowden; the former GOP chair was the only rival Hall alluded to in an interview.

"That's the candidate he fears the most coming out of the Republican primary," said Uithoven, Lowden's advisor. "I think we'll see Sen. Reid stay involved in the Republican primary to a significant extent."