In New Polls, Warning Signs For Dems In Congress
Two polls out today -- Gallup and Pew Research Center -- gave two very different snapshots of the race for Congress. Gallup showed the GOP candidate leading in the so-called "generic ballot", 48-44%, while the Pew Research Center poll showed Dems claiming a 47-42% lead.
The reason for the different outcomes: the very different results each poll got among independent voters. In the Gallup poll, indies prefer the GOP candidate, 52-30%, but in the Pew survey, the GOP lead shrinks to 41-38%. This far out from an election, the "generic ballot" is not as useful a tool in predicting House and Senate outcomes. Most voters are not thinking about these contests and as such, the results can be quite volatile.
While head-to-head match-ups aren't that instructive at this point, the underlying feelings and assumptions that voters are making about Congress are. And, the Pew poll also contains some big red flags for Dems. Just 34% would like to see most incumbents re-elected, the lowest number since '06, when Dems took the House from the GOP.
Asked whether they would like to see their own rep. re-elected, just 52% of respondents said yes. Among Dems, 64% want to see their rep. re-elected, but just 50% of GOPers and 42% of indies feel that way. Overall, lower incumbent numbers were seen only in '06 and '94 since Pew began polling the question.
Also of concern to Dems is a gap in voter enthusiasm, best seen through the debate over health care reform: 56% of those who oppose Pres. Obama's health care plan characterize themselves as "very enthusiastic" about voting in '10, to just 43% of those who favor the reform efforts. And of those who "strongly" oppose health care reform, 64% say they're "very enthusiastic" about voting.
Overall, 58% of those who plan to vote for a GOP candidate are "very enthusiastic," while 42% voting for Dems feel that way.
So while the Pew ballot test shows Dems with a 5-point advantage, it also reflects the anti-incumbent environment that saw the party lose two GOV races last week.
The Gallup survey was conducted 11/5-8 among 894 RVs, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. The Pew poll surveyed 1,644 RVs from 10/28-11/8, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4%.
(STEVEN SHEPARD)