Mahoney Out, Field Set (?) In NH
The field appears set in NH after a potential challenger decided not to run for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's (R-NH) seat, with both Dems and GOPers cautiously optimistic about their chances.
Businessman Sean Mahoney, the RNC national committeeman from the Granite State, said he would not run. That leaves former AG Kelly Ayotte facing attorney Ovide Lamontagne and businessmen Bill Binnie and Jim Bender seeking the GOP nod. Dems have cleared the field for Rep. Paul Hodes.
The NRSC has not formally gotten involved, but few in DC have made any secret about their preference in the race. Ayotte has attended several fundraisers with leading senators, including Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, NRSC chair John Cornyn and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
Ayotte is positioning herself as a mainstream conservative, while her opponents seek different niches within the GOP base. Lamontagne has sought to portray himself as the true conservative alternative, and his allies have questioned Ayotte's firmness on key parts of the GOP platform. Meanwhile, Binnie is running to Ayotte's left and Bender is a tax and term-limit advocate.
The winner of the GOP primary will face Hodes, a two-term congressman who beat ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) in a major upset in '06. Without a primary of his own, Hodes has been stockpiling cash for the sprint to the general election.
Hodes, who has been aggressive in his support of health care legislation, is very publicly working to get the anti-abortion Stupak amendment stripped from the final health care bill.
Still, some Dems are less than thrilled with Hodes' performance. He got off to a slow fundraising start, and he had a little over $1.1M in the bank at the end of September.
Ayotte had $563,000 in the bank, while Lamontagne, Binder and Binnie have only recently joined the race.
The latest survey, a UNH Granite State Poll conducted 9/25-10/2, showed Ayotte leading Hodes by a 40% to 33% margin. Hodes led Lamontagne, 37% to 28%. Neither Binnie nor Binder were tested in the poll of 466 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
(REID WILSON)