MD-01: Harris Leads Kratovil

A new poll out today from '08 nominee Andy Harris' (R) camp shows him leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD 01) 52-39% in the Eastern Shore-based CD, adding to mounting signs that the environment has shifted dramatically in the GOP's favor in the last year.

Just over a year ago, Kratovil declared victory after a days-long recount gave him a 2,852-vote win over Harris. But a year of tough votes (he voted no on the health care reform bill, and yes on the climate bill and stimulus conference report) -- and the worsening climate for Dems, particularly in CDs that John McCain carried -- have combined to severely damage his re-election chances.

The Tarrance Group poll, conducted 11/15-17 among 300 LVs, shows Kratovil enjoying a 43-30% fav/unfav rating, but 49% of voters say they prefer someone new to represent them, while just 29% say Kratovil deserves to be re-elected. The survey had a margin of error of +/- 5.7%.

These numbers should be welcome news to Harris' camp, and provide it with ammunition against those who doubted the '08 nominee would make a good '10 candidate. He ended '08 with nearly even fav/unfav ratings (45-44%), and many blamed his poor campaign on the loss. Indeed, he failed to take advantage of McCain's coattails (he took 59% in the CD) and the GOP nature of the CD.

But '10 will be a referendum on the incumbent Kratovil, not on Harris. And despite taking two high-profile "no" votes against his party, Kratovil still faces an uphill battle to win re-election.

Not everything is coming up roses for Harris, though, as he may face a difficult primary against his '08 rival, state Sen. E.J. Pipkin (R); some believe Pipkin will formally announce his bid in Dec.

Pipkin would present a big speed bump to Harris, if he does indeed enter the race. He's wealthy, and in his losing '08 effort he put nearly $1M of his own cash into the race. Pipkin is also from the Eastern Shore base of the CD, while Harris is from the western part of the CD. Still, many GOPers believe Harris is their better option, and believe he's put together a better team in advance of a tough rematch against Kratovil.

(TIM SAHD)