Should Dems Be Moore Nervous?

It's been mentioned by a few people, myself included, but it bears repeating: Dems know that if they experience a wave of retirements this year, they're in trouble. In '94, Dems lost 21 seats in which the incumbent decided against seeking another term.

That's why DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has put so much emphasis on keeping incumbents in their races. And he's been largely successful; to date, only Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS, pictured right) has announced he will retire without seeking another office.

Van Hollen has even been successful in keeping Dems out of other races; just 6 Dems are running for SEN or GOV, and most of them hold safe seats. (It hasn't always helped his entire party, as we're sure the DSCC would have loved Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) to run for an open SEN seat.)

But by and large, retirements, if they end today, would only threaten Dems' hold on Moore's seat and those held by Reps. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) and Joe Sestak (D-PA). Then again, virtually no one expects Moore's to be the last shoe to drop.

Thanksgiving and the ensuing winter holiday break are when members go home, sit down with their families and decide their political future. Each year, retirements seem to surge in Dec. and Jan.

A top Dem aide plugged in to the party's efforts to keep their majority says things will only look bad if as many as 20 members retire. That number is higher than anyone expects, but there may be as many as a dozen who do decide against stepping down.

Moore's departure caused a few Dems to panic a bit, and to get a little defensive. If Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO), Leonard Boswell (D-IA) or other entrenched incumbents in GOP-leaning seats start looking for new lines of work, maybe they'll have a real reason to panic.

(REID WILSON)