Van Hollen Says Preparation Will Avoid '94 Repeat
DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has made preparations to avoid a repeat of the GOP sweep of '94, arguing that political observers who say Dems are in for big losses are premature.
"It's going to be competitive, but this is not going to be a 1994 redux," Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall. "We're doing things that are within our control. Now, obviously if you have a super-wave election, that makes it more difficult, but a lot of these elections are decided at the margins."
Not that the '94 wave hasn't been on Dems' minds: Early this year, Van Hollen sat down with ex-Reps. Vic Fazio (D-CA) and Martin Frost (D-TX), two members deeply involved in the '94 elections, to try and learn lessons from that year in order to avoid a repeat.
"We had a thorough discussion to try to learn the lessons," Van Hollen said of the meeting. "They weren't prepared. A lot of people were in denial as late as August, September."
But Van Hollen said danger could lurk if turnout is low, factors that hurt Dem GOV candidates in NJ and VA this year. The DCCC has been working closely with the White House and Organizing for America, Pres. Obama's political organization, to mobilize the voters who showed up last year.
"If you were to see the kind of turnout in the Congressional elections of 2010 that you saw in these off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, that would spell trouble," he said. "But there's no reason to believe that we're going to have that kind of turnout, because voters who came out to support Obama will understand that ... he has a huge stake."
(REID WILSON)
To boost turnout, the DCCC has expanded their field program and made a special point to highlight the virtues of volunteers. The DCCC has also included more members on their Frontline program for vulnerable incumbents, monitoring their progress on several key fronts.
Meanwhile, the party is still targeting GOP-held seats, staying on offense in a way Dems did not do in '94. Van Hollen pointed to seats held by Reps. Mike Castle (R-DE), Jim Gerlach (R-PA) and Mark Kirk (R-IL), three members running for other offices, as potential pickup opportunities, and said Dems would target Reps. Charlie Dent (R-PA) and Lee Terry (R-NE), among others.
"We are staying on offense, and that was clearly one of the lessons from 1994. It was more circle the wagons, we're all on defense," he said. "We have a narrower playing field. When you win 55 seats in 3 years, there are obviously fewer opportunities."
What's more, Van Hollen, in his official capacity as assistant to the Speaker, has made sure younger members actually have a resume of legislative accomplishments to take back to their districts.
"We're working very closely with these members to make sure they do the outreach right, they have a lot of legislative opportunities to show they make a difference, and they are," he said.
But NRCC communications director Ken Spain countered that, for all the Dems' preparation, the mood in the country could prove too big a challenge to surmount.
"The one thing Chris Van Hollen isn't accounting for is the fact that Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government takeovers and fewer jobs is wildly out of touch with the needs of middle class Americans," Spain said. "The Democratic Party is losing independent voters and support among senior citizens by the day, which is why even some of the most senior members of the caucus are already finding themselves in tough races."
The NRCC is touting the prospects of several challengers running against long-serving incumbents. Reps. Vic Snyder (D-AR) and John Spratt (D-SC) have what could become strong opponents, while the GOP even believes it has a shot to knock off Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO).
But unlike '94, when GOPers picked up dozens of open seats after Dems retired en mass, there has yet to be a single straight-up Dem retirement. Four Dem incumbents are running for SEN and two are running for GOV. That could hinder the GOP's chances to take full advantage of any wave that does develop.
Van Hollen hinted that the lack of retirements is no accident.
"We are, at least so far, seeing fewer retirements, and frankly we have an early warning system at the DCCC. Any time we get wind of somebody who's thinking of retiring or running for something else, we've worked with them, encouraged them to stay and see the virtues of staying and seeing what they can accomplish in the House," he said. "It's been a long time since we've had a Democratic president that we can work with, and that has an impact."
Still, Spain warned Dems that the GOP may not need a series of retirements to pick up seats.
"If they continue down this path, Republicans are positioned to make substantial gains," he said. Spain refused to comment on whether GOPers could make gains as big as they did in '94.
10.2% UNEMPLOYMENT, A massive mountain of corrupt spending and debt, both getting worse. That is what the Democrats have given us in the 3 years they have controlled Congress and the year they have completely controlled the Government with Obama in the White House. The Democrats have given us total economic disaster. In 2010 we have to restore the balance of power in our Government so this corruption doesn't continue. It worked in the 90s when Clinton was President and the Republicans controlled congress. The Democrats in Congress have to go before they destroy us all!!!! Republicans in 2010, Hillary in 2012!!!
The economy will be the determiner for many of these seats. It's hard to see how things will get much better before the November election, but they could. If they do not, and only get worse, "safe" seats are going to disappear.
Mr. Van Hollen is completely deaf to any of his constituents call sfor him not to vote for the health care bill, and tarp. If he doesn't understand his own district, how can he possibly advise politiciams around the country. Hopefully, he will be hoisted on his own petard and be out as well.
Interesting that Van Hollen believes the votes "faith" in Obama will save the day in 2010.....I'm sure the GOP can't take control of either chamber, but I would wager that majorities will be very slim......
Lets remember that GOP hasn't done much anyway.....What we need is balance restored in government. To think that MASSIVE CHANGE in government and the economy is a straight line party vote is absolutely criminal....
Clearly Pelosi and Reid have to go......
Check out my "uncensored", politically-incorrect blog @ www.bpannebecker.blogspot.com Join the discussion !
The only way that the democrats can "prepare" for the debacle that is coming their way is:
1) Insist on return of all bailout money by election day, 2010;
2) Return all unspent stimulus funds to the treasury;
3) Kill their budget-busting health insurance bill which unconstitionally forces people to buy insurance;
4) Scrap the crap and tax "energy" bill;
5) Try KSM with a military tribunal at Guantanamo;
6) Eliminate economic uncertainty by permanently lowering taxes on small businesses which create jobs and will bring the unemployment rate back down;
i.e. reversing every single one of their destructive and insane policies.
What are the chances of this?
Exactly.
They are incapable of questioning their assumptions or that of their dear leader.
They will remain in denial until Nov., 2010
and probably beyond. After all they thought
they achieved a great victory on election day,
2009. That's why they cannot possibly "prepare" for the debacle to come.
Van Hollen is in denial. its EXACTLY the proposals that the DEMS DO have to "tout" about thats killing them. BIG SPENDING, BIG TAXES, BIG ENTITLEMENT, BIG GOVERNMENT!
You're right. He should do everything that Republicans want him to do because that clearly worked for 8 years. How could he be so foolish...
The Democrats may be facing another '94. Not 1994 but 1894 when the lost 113 seats in a 350-member House. The lack of retirements is far outweighed by the terrible economy, taking positions out of sink with the American public, and the unpopularity if the Demo leaders (Foley and Mitchell were not loathed by the American people as Pelosi and Reid are). The basic problem is that Americans are still center-right and the Democrats are have become European-style social democrats.
The other canard is that Republicans were too recently in power to offer a credible alternative. I have two responses to that: (1) Republicans held the White House just two years before both the '94 blowouts; and (2) the Republucan alternatives are coming: the 1994 Contract with America came just 6 weeks before the election.
The Demicrats are whistling past the graveyard.
In 1994 the Republicans had a program they were pushing. They spoke with one voice. Now, they are out of ideas. "NO" is not a political program. Plus they are tearing eachother apart like starving rats. The Dems will lose not more than 15 seats in the House and will pick up two Senate seats.
I will immediately take any and all bets from anyone who believes the Democrats will lose not more than 15 seats in the House and pick up two Senate seats. And I'm not a betting man. It's hard to say how big the reversal will be, but the unthinkable is suddenly thinkable, if not exactly likely -- a Republican majority in the House, and a 57-43 D-R Senate.
This article is pure spin from a Democrat who can hardly admit to the real backroom concerns and who reflects the Democrat leadership's blind devotion to its progressive mindset. In truth, reasonable Democrats have begun to question the demented true believers like Pelosi, Markey, Waxman and Grayson, who think the best strategy is to keep pushing the same abysmal policy mix that we've seen over the past year. But they've come too far. They're going down with the ship, because with today's radicalized Democratic party, they don't have the power to change directions. They've spent too much time fantasizing about the "permanent realignment" tripe that short-sighted progressives substituted for crtical analysis of '06 and '08.
In 1994, the tidal wave was not a mere backfilling of the seats of retiring Democrats. It swept away party leaders, previously untouchable incumbents, big names, marginal names. It was a bloodbath not because Republicans were held in such high esteem or were getting a hearing for their policy alternatives (then as now, they were a minority silenced and dismissed as mere naysayers by Democrats).
People saw what single-party Democrat rule meant, and they said, "No thanks." They are essentially saying that now. The question becomes, how many voters show up to reject their Democrat in 2010 (alongside those who are fired up to choose their Republican). I'm guessing, a lot.
Van Hollen is delusional if he thinks the Democrats can win in 2010 by just being the same status quo talking-point spewing hacks.
EARTH TO VAN HOLLEN:
We've had all we can take from you aholes.
He's the DCCC, what is he suppose to say??? The left believe their own propaganda
That said, there are barriers to the GOP that didnt exist in 1994
1. The GOP in 1994 hadnt controlled congress since 1954, so there was no bad after taste that exists today
2. House Bank and House Post Office scandals were huge in 1994
3. There were lots of DEM retirements in 1994 from moderate or conservative leaning districts
4. There is no chance the GOP will win the Senate. Too many vulnerable GOP seats are open
The GOP will win seats but it wont be 40. More like 25-30 in the House with 2-4 in the Senate...
The real bloodbath for the Dems comes in 2014 should Bambi be re-elected. In 2014 the Dems will lose no less than 7 Senate seats.
""The economy will be the determiner for many of these seats""
This is indeed a myth that Dems use to comfort themselves. The biggest GOP wins in 1966, 1978 and 1994 all came in years when the economy improved from the previous President election. The economy isnt as important as issues like retirements, which were huge in 1994.
""the Republucan alternatives are coming: the 1994 Contract with America came just 6 weeks before the election.""
This is true. People forget this and assume that Gingrich came up with the Contract For America in Jan 1993. A plan like Gingrich's should come out no more than 6 weeks before the election. It throws off the Dems and makes them play defense for the last 6 weeks. Give them a year, and they will come up with a credible alternative and the public will get bored
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