December 2009

By Reid Wilson

For the second time in a week, a strong Dem candidate against an incumbent GOPer has ended their campaign.

State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) said Thursday she would end her bid against Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-KS), citing a previous commitment to serve out her term at the state capitol. The move leaves Dems without a major candidate against the freshman Jenkins.

Dems have seen a string of key recruits drop their bids in recent weeks. A week ago, businessman Jack McDonald (D), who had raised good money in his bid against Rep. Michael McCaul (R-tX), ended his campaign.

In their efforts to avoid an electoral sweep on par with '94, Dems have touted their success in keeping some GOPers on defense -- something the party failed to do 16 years ago. The DCCC cited both Kelly and McDonald as prominent challengers in a recent memo.

Meanwhile, Dems have also lost candidates running against Reps. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) and Brian Bilbray (R-CA), as well as a leading contender for Rep. Zach Wamp's (R-TN) open seat.

By Reid Wilson

SC AG Henry McMaster (R) and 12 other GOP AGs have warned Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid to remove a controversial provision championed by a key senator from health care legislation.

McMaster and his fellow AGs have asked that a provision requiring the federal government to pay for new Medicaid enrollees from NE be eliminated. That provision was added to win a vote in favor of the legislation from Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE); GOPers have derisively termed it the "Cornhusker Kickback."

The AGs say the provision violates the Constitution by favoring one state over others, a violation of several clauses.

"[T]his legislation would require every state, except Nebraska, to shoulder its fair share of the increased Medicaid costs the bill will generate. The provision of the bill that relieves a single state from this cost-sharing program appears to be not only unrelated, but also antithetical to the legitimate federal interests in the bill," the AGs write.

McMaster has threatened litigation over the provision before. But the letter marks the first time the AGs have specifically warned Congressional leaders that they will file suit if the provision stays in the bill.

"We ask that Congress delete the Nebraska provision from the pending legislation, as we prefer to avoid litigation," they write.

The issue is a good one for McMaster, who is enmeshed in a tough GOV primary, and Dems have charged his motivation is purely to help his own political future. Opposing the health care reform effort, in GOP circles, is a popular move and can only help McMaster stand out from a crowded field.

It's a calculation other AGs have made too. MI AG Mike Cox (R), PA AG Tom Corbett (R) and FL AG Bill McCollum (R) are all running for GOV, and opposing a health care bill that's unpopular in their own states will help their causes in the short run.

Meanwhile, several other rising stars have also signed on. Though they aren't running for higher office this year, WA AG Rob McKenna (R), TX AG Greg Abbott (R), CO AG John Suthers (R), AL AG Troy King (R), UT AG Mark Shurtleff (R) and ID AG Lawrence Wasden (R) have all been mentioned as potential candidates for higher office.

By Reid Wilson

The NRSC is the latest GOP group to use the failed bombing attempt on a Detroit-bound plane to rake in money.

In an email to supporters Wednesday, NRSC exec. dir. Rob Jesmer cites the attempted terrorism, along with health care legislation, in an effort to earn last-minute contributions.

"[T]his country was one faulty detonator away from an American airliner being blown out of the sky," Jesmer writes in the solicitation. "Remember right after the inauguration, it was revealed President Obama no longer wanted to acknowledge the 'global war on terror' and referred to terrorist acts as 'man-made disasters'? Back then you and I knew that showed a remarkable lack of understanding of the threat America faced but in the face of what nearly happened a couple days, it is even more infuriating."

"To you and me and our friends throughout America, the healthcare bill is a man-made disaster. And when a foreigner tries to blow up an airliner, it is an attempted terrorist attack," the letter adds.

The letter comes on the heels of a fundraising appeal from Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), who used the incident to try and earn money for his MI GOV campaign. One of Hoekstra's GOP rivals slammed him for using terrorism as a fundraising tool.

Meanwhile, with the 4th quarter fundraising deadline looming, other GOPers are using other methods that steer farther afield of politics. Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) raised the incident only in the context that his opponent, Sen. Chris Dodd (D), helped strip money out of an appropriations bill that would have gone to airport security.

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) avoids the incident altogether, focusing instead on a positive story in today's Miami Herald.

Read the NRSC's full fundraising appeal after the jump.

By Reid Wilson

As GOPers begin increasingly using the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner to score political points, 2 Dems are blaming the Bush admin for events that led directly to the failed attack.

While many Dems stay silent and let the WH lead the way, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) say the previous admin let down their guard.

"In general, we are facing the consequences of the Bush administration's failures to deal with al Qaeda," Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall. "The Republicans have no business in pointing fingers at the Obama administration on terrorism and national security."

"The Obama administration has been much more aggressive about going after al Qaeda than the Bush administration, which turned its focus from al Qaeda to Iraq," he added. The Obama admin has "been on the offense in places where the Bush administration had taken its eye off the ball."

Meanwhile, Massa has taken on ex-VP Dick Cheney, who he says is directly responsible for releasing the top al Qaeda figures in Yemen who aided and trained the Nigerian-born suspect.

"I would remind the American public that the apparent leaders of the al Qaeda cell in Yemen were 2 terrorists who were released by Vice President Cheney in secret. I think there's a level of accountability that has to be levied personally on the vice president," Massa said in an interview. "He is personally responsible for that."

Privately, some Dems have worried that allowing GOP charges to go unanswered gives the opposition another chance to claim the political high ground on national security. As Pres. Obama vacations in HI over the holidays, Van Hollen said the WH should be more aggressive in pushing back on attacks from the GOP.

"The Democrats need to fight back on this issue, keeping in mind that our goal is to focus constantly on how we can improve the national security of the American people. The Obama administration should not allow the Republicans to continue to get away with playing politics on this issue," Van Hollen said. "I think the American people are better served if we look to the future, but we need to make sure [that] playing politics with national security cannot go unanswered."

By Reid Wilson

Candidates for House and Senate raised $1.42B in the '08 election cycle, according to an FEC analysis released Tuesday.

The 2,382 candidates who sought Cong. seats last year actually raised less than candidates did in the '06 cycle, fueled by a drop in receipts by Senate campaigns. In total, Cong. candidates raised $1.438B in '06.

Senate candidates raised $435M in '08, down 19% from the '06 cycle. House candidates raised $980M, 13% above the '06 totals.

Meanwhile, the cost of winning a House seat rose in '08 while the cost of a Senate seat fell. The average winning House candidate spent $1.37M in '08, up from the $1.25M average in '06. The average winning Senate candidate in '08 spent just over $7.5M, significantly less than the $8.8M a winner spent in '06.

But spending more money did not guarantee a candidate would win. 4 of the top 10 recipients of campaign cash ended up losing their races in '08, including ex-Rep. Doug Ose (R) in CA, Sandy Treadwell in NY, Deborah Honeycutt in GA and Jim Oberweis in IL.

Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO), who gave heavily to his own campaign, raised the most of any incumbent, pulling in $7.35M. Reps. Mark Kirk (R-IL), Charlie Rangel (D-NY), Bill Foster (D-IL) and Ron Paul (R-TX) and House Min. Leader John Boehner all raised more than $5M. Only Kirk and Foster, though, faced competitive elections, while Rangel and Boehner spread much of their money to their colleagues.

Meanwhile, Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) and his ousted rival, ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R), raised the most on the Senate side, at $22.5M and $19.3M, respectively. Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and his '08 foe, businessman Bruce Lunsford (D), combined to rake in more than $29M, the second-most expensive race. Candidates in NC, GA, CO and TX combined to spend more than $20M each as well.

And the level of influence of outside groups continues to rise as well. Independent expenditures and electioneering communications by outside organizations combined to reach more than $1M in 12 Senate contests and 55 House races.

The groups spent most heavily in OR ($28.6M), NC ($27.9M), NH ($26.4M), MN ($24.9M) and CO ($20.1M). Dems won each of those races. Outside groups spent more than $5M in contests won by Reps. Erik Paulsen (R-MN), Mark Schauer (D-MI), Martin Heinrich (D-NM) and Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH).

More fun facts, courtesy of the FEC, after the jump.

By Tim Sahd

So, Rep. George Radanovich (R-CA) has joined 12 other GOPers in opting not to run for re-election in '10. But do Dems have a shot at picking up this Central Valley seat?

So far, ex-actor Les Marsden (D) is the only Dem in the race; he's been running for months, and no other names surfaced in the hours following Radanovich's announcement. Marsden, despite earning acclaim as a stage and screen actor, has not been a strong fundraiser, and had just $7K CoH as of the end of Sept. Dems will need a higher profile challenger in order to put this seat seriously in play.

Radanovich's seat, with a Cook PVI of R+9, is one of only 11 CA CDs that went for John McCain in '08 when it gave him a slim 52-46% victory.

But the numbers suggest that close margin may be more indicative of Pres. Obama's strength in CA than any leftward tilt in this CD. In fact, McCain severely underperformed Pres. Bush both in the CD and statewide. In '00 and '04, Pres. Bush took 57 and 61% respectively in the CD; in '04, Bush carried 22 of CA's CDs, double McCain's take.

Registration numbers further the GOP's claim to the seat. They own a 7% registration advantage here; that's down just one percent from '02. The GOP has seen a sharper decline in most other CDs.

So while Dems can rightly claim that Obama's performance gives them hope in challenging several GOP CDs in CA, this is not the model seat for that argument. The '08 results may be the beginning of a leftward trend in the CD, but so far, they appear to be an anomaly.

The GOP's biggest foe may be themselves, as a crowded primary is beginning to unfold. State Sen. Jeff Denham (R) is running with Radanovich's support, but that -- along with the $1M he gathered during an aborted run for LG this year -- hasn't scared off an immediate primary challenge.

'02 CA-21 candidate/ex-Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson (R) -- who has long been pondering a Radanovich challenge -- officially jumped into the race on 12/29, according to the Fresno Bee. And Fresno Councilor Larry Westerlund (R) is also conferring with party leaders about a bid.

Meanwhile, sources say ex-CA 11 Rep. Richard Pombo (R) is also a potential open seat candidate. They say he's been urged by some to run, and hasn't ruled out a bid.

The GOP starts out with the advantage in the race over Radanovich's seat, but a crowded, messy primary, along with a stronger Dem challenger, may put the seat in play.

By Dan Roem

Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's (R) bigger than expected win this year has GOPers borrowing his campaign strategy, hoping it can lead them to another VA victory.

Ex-Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt (R) is following in McDonnell's footsteps, downplaying social conservatism and instead focusing on the economy, in a special state Senate contest against Del. Dave Marsden (D).

"I don't think there's any genius to Bob McDonnell's message," said Hunt mgr Tim Edson. "Steve's not running away from his views on his social issues at all. People know where Steve stands on the issues. He's not going to run away on it. But at the same time, Steve has a long record on fiscal issues and that's what people are going to talk about."

A Hunt win in a Jan. 12 special election to fill the vacancy created by AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli (R) will keep the Dem-controlled Senate's balance of power at 21-19. If one Dem from a conservative area resigns from his or her post before redistricting in 2011, that could create an opportunity for GOPers to win back control of the commonwealth's upper chamber; LG Bill Bolling (R) would break any tie votes.

That means both parties are spending a significant amount of time, and money, on the open seat as Dems try to retain their last foothold in the Commonwealth's state government just ahead of redistricting.

"Of course we are reminding the base in this battle of bases (that) it is very concerning what could happen with one-party rule," said Marsden mgr Mark Henson.

Having control of the state House of Delegates, which sports a 60-39-1 GOP advantage, as well as the gov's mansion would give GOPers complete control over redistricting, though
VA Dem political analyst Ben Tribbett said it is too early to tell how redistricting will affect the commonwealth's 11 congressional districts. The 2010 census is not likely to impact the number of seats the Old Dominion has.

When GOPers controlled the governorship and both chambers of the General Assembly in 2000, the lines were drawn in such a way that Dems stayed at an 8-3 disadvantage until '08, when now-Reps. Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello and Gerry Connolly all flipped GOP seats, giving Dems a 6-5 edge. That advantage will be put to the test next year; all 3 freshmen Dems, along with Rep. Rick Boucher (D), are GOP targets.

By Reid Wilson

The political fight over an attempted terrorist attack became more overt as the NRCC has begun hitting House Dems with comments made by Homeland Security Sec. Janet Napolitano.

The NRCC blasted out releases hitting Reps. Chris Carney (D-PA), Steve Driehaus (D-OH), Bill Foster (D-IL), Jim Himes (D-CT), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), Eric Massa (D-NY), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Bill Owens (D-NY), Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) and Dina Titus (D-NV), questioning whether they agree with Napolitano's Sunday claim that the system worked during the failed attempt to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner.

Napolitano later walked back those remarks in another round of interviews on Monday. Still, GOPers have begun using the incident to suggest that Dems are not adequately protecting the country. Each member hit by the NRCC sits on the House Homeland Security Committee.

"Sec. Napolitano's patently false statements only further the widespread perception that this administration and Democrat-held Congress don't have a strategy to confront the terrorist threat and keep America safe," NRCC comms. dir. Ken Spain said in the release. "Every member of the Homeland Security Committee, including Mary Jo Kilroy, should be condemning Janet Napolitano's absurd statements that 'the system worked' and calling for her to testify before congress. So far the silence from Democrats on Capitol Hill on this gravely serious matter has been deafening."

GOPers, led by Homeland Security ranking member Pete King and Intelligence Committee ranking member Pete Hoekstra, have been ramping up their assaults on the WH and Dems in Congress since the incident happened Christmas Day. The GOP has demanded hearings and briefings on the matter and even criticized Pres. Obama, vacationing in HI over the holidays, for not making a public statement until yesterday. Napolitano's statements on several Sunday shows this weekend gave the GOP an easy target to hit.

On Tuesday, Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN) became the first member of Congress to call for Napolitano's resignation over the comments.

"The fact that this security breach occurred in such a brazen way means that there was a level of significant incompetence involved, and I believe that rests solely on the shoulders of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano," Burton said in a statement. "After serving on the Foreign Affairs Committee for the last 25 years, I can say with certainty that Secretary Napolitano does not have the background or experience necessary to execute her responsibilities. Her bizarre remarks on Sunday were the final straw in a series of embarrassing and incompetent comments this year."

Dem aides have hit back, with DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan telling Hotline OnCall that the GOP is "us[ing] this incident as an opportunity to fan partisan flames and raise money for political campaigns." Sevugan accused the GOP of leaving the US with inadequate homeland security protections.

By Reid Wilson

Rep. George Radanovich (R-CA) will announce he will not seek a 9th term in a statement to be released this afternoon, 2 GOP sources confirms to Hotline OnCall.

First elected in '94 when he beat then-Rep. Richard Lehman (D), Radanovich moved to a senior position on the Energy & Commerce Committee, where he is the top GOPer on the Commerce, Trade and Consumer Protection subcommittee.

Radanovich never faced a serious Dem challenger after beating Lehman with 57% in '94. But he may have faced a strong GOPer this year, thanks to opponents unhappy with his stance on water issues, a critical concern in the oft-parched Central Valley.

One source said Radanovich will back state Sen. Jeff Denham (R) as his replacement. CA Senate districts are actually larger than congressional districts, though Denham's is more closely related to Rep. Dennis Cardoza's (D) neighboring 18th district. Top GOPers had tried to convince Denham to run against Cardoza, though Radanovich's district has a stronger GOP lean.

But Denham is unlikely to get a clean shot at the seat. Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson (R), who had backing from the Club for Growth during his '02 primary against now-Rep. Devin Nunes (R), is also likely to run. One source even suggested that ex-Rep. Richard Pombo (R), who lost his neighboring 11th district to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in '06, may be a potential contender as well.

The seat, which takes in half of Fresno and extends to the northern suburbs of Modesto, is not likely to cause GOPers a lot of headaches. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won the district with 52% in '08, but Pres. Bush took it with 61% in '04.

But he is the latest in a string of GOPers to say they will not run again, a development that could undermine GOP claims that the party is set to take back the House. GOPers pointed to retirement announcements from Reps. Brian Baird (D-WA), Bart Gordon (D-TN), Dennis Moore (D-KS) and John Tanner (D-TN) as evidence that Dems find themselves in political hot water in advance of the '10 elections.

Meanwhile, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen pointed out on Fox News Sunday this weekend that more GOPers, 13, are retiring than Dems, who so far have 11 members saying no thanks to another term. But GOPers remain optimistic that, unlike Radanovich's seat, those held by Baird, Tanner, Gordon and Moore give them more electoral opportunities.

By Reid Wilson

The Dem field running to replace Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) is likely to get more crowded next week when ex-state Rep. Denny Heck (D) announces his intentions.

Heck, a former CoS to ex-Gov. Booth Gardner (D), is well-known in local political circles, though he has not held office since the mid-'80s. He founded TVW, WA's answer to C-SPAN, and was an early investor in some tech companies that made him wealthy. Heck has filed papers with the FEC and has given himself $100K in seed money, should he decide to make a bid.

He was in DC last week meeting with Baird, Reps. Norm Dicks, Rick Larsen and Jay Inslee, all WA Dems. He also met with DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, according to Heck's spokesman. Heck has discussed a potential candidacy with Rep. Jim McDermott (D) and Gov. Chris Gregoire (D) as well.

If he does make his campaign official next week, as expected, he will join a packed field. State Rep. Deb Wallace (D), who holds Heck's old state House seat, and state Sen. Craig Pridemore (D) lead the field, and state Rep. Brendan Williams (D) has yet to rule out a bid. Heck, Wallace and Pridemore all hail from the Vancouver area, the population base of the district, while Williams is from the northern part of the district, near Olympia.

On the GOP side, the NRCC is excited about state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R), a former aide to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R). But Herrera has her work cut out for her as well; ex-Veterans Affiars official David Castillo (R) is already in the race, while Tea Party activists may rally around accountant David Hedrick (R), whose claim to fame was confronting Baird at a town hall meeting earlier this year.

Baird announced last month he would not run for a 7th term, a move the NRCC cited as evidence that Dems know they are in trouble next year. But Baird, who has a reputation as something of a maverick, has repeatedly said he wanted to spend more time with his young twin children.

The district will produce a competitive general election contest almost regardless of who comes out of both primaries. Baird won his 6 terms easily, but the district, in its current incarnation, voted for the GOP pres. nominee in '92, '96, '00 and '04. Pres. Obama won the seat by a 53%-45% margin, largely on the strength of a growing blue collar Dem base in Vancouver, the state's fastest-growing large city.

Check out election results for Baird's district, which covers all of Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Wahkiakum and Pacific Cos, most of Skamania Co. and part of Thurston Co. on the WA Sec/State's website, which has great county-by-county graphics and results.

By Reid Wilson

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), the top GOPer on the House Intelligence Committee, is using the Christmas Day terror attack on a Detroit-bound airliner to raise money for his MI GOV race.

In a letter to potential donors, Hoekstra uses the incident -- in which a Nigerian man tried to light explosives concealed in his pants in order to bring down the plane -- to bash "weak-kneed liberals" he says threaten national security.

"We don't have much time, so I will get right to the point. In the midst of enjoying Christmas with my family, we were quickly reminded that there is still a war against the American way of life; on Christmas morning, it came right here to Detroit," Hoekstra writes.

"Shockingly, yesterday morning, Barack Obama's Homeland Security Secretary went on TV and said 'the system worked'! They just don't get it. The system didn't
'work' here. Far from it! It is insulting that The Obama administration would make such a claim, but then again, these are the same weak-kneed liberals who have recently tried to bring Guantanamo Bay terrorists right here to Michigan!" the letter reads. "My promise to you, as your governor, my first duty and most solemn responsibility is to keep Michigan safe!"

"If you agree that we need a Governor who will stand up the Obama/Pelosi efforts to weaken our security please make a most generous contribution of $25, $50, $100 or even $250 to my campaign."

Hoekstra faces a competitive GOP primary against AG Mike Cox (R), Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) and several other candidates. The winner will be favored over the eventual Dem nominee, and Hoekstra seeks to score points with the GOP base by bashing the rival party.

"There should be no partisan rancor when it comes to keeping our citizens safe. Unfortunately, as the Democrat party drifts further and further to the left, their leaders are making decisions that should frighten us all," Hoekstra writes. "Since President Obama took office, he and his left-wing cronies have taken steps to undermine the work of our brave men and women who work tirelessly to keep us safe."

Hoekstra has raised his profile following the Dec. 25 incident, appearing repeatedly on national news channels to blast the Obama admin. for their weak response. On Tuesday, he appeared on CBS's "The Early Show" and said terrorism prevention systems failed at 3 specific points, including at the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria, where the suspect's father warned officials his son had become radicalized.

Updated: The WH is pushing back on Hoekstra's fundraiser, through the DNC. Spokesman Hari Sevugan called Hoekstra's letter "beyond the pale."

"Republicans are playing politics with issues of national security and terrorism, and that they would use this incident as an opportunity to fan partisan flames and raise money for political campaigns tells you all you need to know about how far the Republican party has fallen and how out of step with the American people they have become," Sevugan said. "The American people simply will not tolerate the likes of Mr. Hoekstra and the Republican Party playing politics with the serious issues of national security and terrorism - especially after the mess they left this country in both domestically and on national security after eight years of failed leadership."

Full text of the fundraising letter after the jump.

By Tim Sahd

AL Ag Commis. Ron Sparks (D) announced today that he will stay in the GOV race and not run against Dem-turned-GOPer Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL).

Sparks is the first top-tier Dem to spurn the race, even though he seriously considered the race after receiving calls from the DCCC.

'02 SEN nominee/Public Service Commis. Susan Parker (D) and '08 AL Supreme Court nominee Deborah Paseur (D) are Dems' next targets as they search for a challenger following Griffith's party switch last week. But observers agreed that Sparks would have given Dems the best chance to beat their erstwhile colleague.

If Sparks did switch races, he would've been the latest in a string of candidates who dropped GOV bids in favor of House challenges. In the race to replace Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), ex-U.S. Atty Pat Meehan (R) turned aside his longshot GOV ambitions in favor of a much better shot at taking down a Dem-leaning House seat. And state Sen. Roy Herron (D) decided to run for retiring Rep. John Tanner's (D-TN) seat, after polls showed he faced long odds in his Statehouse bid.

Sparks faces a tough primary campaign against Rep. Artur Davis (D) in the open AL GOV race, and, should he beat Davis, a tough road in the general election in a GOP-leaning state.

By Felicia Sonmez

FL GOPers are facing two contested primaries in the GOV and SEN races, but FL Dems have an intra-party battle of their own in the race to replace Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL 17), who is vacating his seat to run for SEN.

Eleven candidates -- 10 Dems and 1 GOPer -- have announced bids to represent the heavily-Dem CD, which Pres. Obama took by 87% in '08.

The race marks the first time the seat will not be held by a Meek in more than 15 years. It is also being viewed by Haitian-American activists as the best chance for the first Haitian-American to be elected to Congress. FL-17, which sits in NE Miami-Dade Co., has the highest concentration of Haitian-Americans in the nation, as well as the highest African-American population of any CD in FL.

Three women -- state Sen. Frederica Wilson (D), state Rep. Yolly Roberson (D) and Miami Gardens Mayor Shirley Gibson (D) -- are vying for the Dem nod. Ex-state Rep. Phillip Brutus (D), the first Haitian-American elected to the state legislature, was the first candidate to formally declare his bid 1/13, hours after Meek announced his SEN candidacy.

The rest of the Dem field includes Miami Gardens Commis. Andre Williams (D), Haitian-American Grassroots Coalition vice-chair Marleine Bastien (D), state Rep. James Bush (D), atty Roderick Vereen (D), physician Rudolph Moise (D) and teacher Leroy Adam (D).

While the CD's Haitian-Americans are hopeful about their chances, the size of the field may mean it's less likely that the community will rally around one candidate. Brutus, Roberson and Bastien are the front-runners among the Haitian-American candidates, while Wilson, Gibson and Williams top the field of non-Haitian candidates.

And as if the primary weren't complicated enough, Brutus is Roberson's ex-husband and former law partner. The two have since developed a bitter political rivalry.

Teacher Corey Poitier (R) is the lone GOPer in the race.

By Steven Shepard

College football fans want to see a playoff system replace the current Bowl Championship Series but are skeptical of efforts by Congress to impose such a system, according to a new poll out today, nine days before the BCS crowns a nat'l champion.

According to the Quinnipiac Univ. poll, 63% of self-IDed NCAA football fans think the BCS would be replaced by a playoff system like the NCAA uses in men's and women's basketball, while 33% of fans would rather stick with the current regime.

Presently, the BCS uses a formula that combines polls among journalists and broadcasters by the AP and Harris Interactive with computer rankings to determine the best teams in the nation.

This season, the BCS has chosen the Univ. of TX and the Univ. of AL, both undefeated, to participate in the BCS Nat'l Championship Game on 1/7 in Pasadena, CA. But there are three other undefeated teams that won't get a chance at that championship. One is the Univ. of Cincinnati, a member of the Big East, one of the top six conferences that receive an automatic bid into the BCS bowl system. Cincinnati will play the Univ. of FL on 1/1 in New Orleans, while the other two unbeaten teams -- Boise St. and TCU -- will play one another on 1/4 in Glendale, AZ.

The BCS system came under fire from prominent lawmakers after the '08 season. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) held a hearing before the Judiciary Cmte this summer after the undefeated Univ. of UT was excluded from the BCS Championship Game while two one-loss teams, the Univs. of FL and OK, competed for the title.

Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX), the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Cmte, has written legislation that would force the BCS to adopt a playoff system. Barton's TX Longhorns, which went 11-1 and defeated OK in '08, was sent to the Fiesta Bowl instead of the championship game. The legislation got a markup hearing with the Commerce, Trade and Consumer Protection Subcmte earlier this month.

But according to the Q poll, college football fans aren't thrilled with the prospect of cong. interference in NCAA athletics. Just 45% of fans think Barton's bill is a good idea, while 48% think it's a bad idea. Those results continue to show Americans' dissatisfaction with the legislative branch, with only 35% of fans who identify politically as indies considering cong. involvement a good idea. And despite the fact that cong. GOPers have played quarterback on these efforts, just 38% of football fans IDing as GOPers think it's a good idea.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 948 NCAA football fans from 12/15-20, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

By Reid Wilson

Frequent candidate Andy Martin (R) has launched a statewide radio ad in IL accusing GOP frontrunner/Rep. Mark Kirk (R) of being gay.

Martin, who has run for pres. twice, is best known for spreading incendiary rumors about public figures. He has filed lawsuits challenging Pres. Obama's citizenship status, run ads accusing then-candidate George W. Bush of drug use and used anti-Semitic slurs about a judge.

Now, he has purchased time on IL radio stations to take after his primary rival, sparking outrage among IL GOPers.

"Today, I am fighting for the facts about Mark Kirk. Illinois Republican leader Jack Roeser says there is a solid rumor that Kirk is a homosexual. Roeser suggests that Kirk is a member of a Republican Party homosexual club," Martin says in the ad.

The ad first ran on KMOX, a CBS affiliate in St. Louis that reaches much of downstate IL. KMOX posted a story (which features audio from the ad) in which the station makes clear they are required to give legally qualified federal candidates airtime without censorship.

Kirk is serving on active duty in his role as a Naval Reseve intelligence officer, and so cannot comment on politics. But campaign manager Eric Elk issued a statement on behalf of the campaign.

"The ad is not true and is demeaning to the political process. The people of Illinois deserve better."

The IL GOP quickly issued a statement slamming Martin and disavowing him as a candidate.

"The Illinois Republican Party disavows the statements made today by Mr. Andrew Martin in his statewide radio advertisements. His statements today are consistent with his history of bizarre behavior and often times hate-filled speech which has no place in the Illinois Republican Party. Mr. Martin will no longer be recognized as a legitimate Republican Candidate by the Illinois Republican Party," party chairman Pat Brady said in a statement.

Another GOP leader quoted in Martin's ad, Lake Co. GOPer Raymond True, denied making the statements Martin attributes to him.

Martin is no stranger to controversy. He formed a campaign committee in '86 with an anti-Semitic name. He traveled to Iraq several times, he says, to capture Saddam Hussein. And he files frequent lawsuits, many of which have been thrown out as frivolous.

By Reid Wilson

Dems have pledged to target party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL), but local GOPers aren't going to give him a free pass either.

Businessman Les Phillip (R) will drop a mail piece to regular GOP primary voters this week tying Griffith to his old party -- specifically, to 2 Dems to whom he gave money, ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean and Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid.

"As your Congressman, you will always know where I stand, and that is not with Nancy Pelosi. I will fight the radical Pelosi-Obama agenda that threatens to saddle our kids with a crippling debt," the mail piece says.

See the mail piece here. [pdf]

"Dean and Reid want to socialize medicine, attack American values, raise taxes and
capitulate in the war on terror. When Parker Griffith wrote these liberals big campaign checks, he told everyone that they represent his values," Phillip said in a statement accompanying the mail piece. "He can do that if he likes, but I can tell you this: Reid and Dean do not represent the values of the people of this district."

Phillip is trying to position himself as the leading alternative to Griffith, a mantle Madison Co. Commis. Mo Brooks (R) has also tried to claim. Both have raised a little over $100K, and Brooks has lent himself $50K as well.

Griffith has until June to convince GOP primary voters he's one of them. But given the amount of money that has been spent against him by the NRCC, among other conservative groups, Griffith certainly has his work cut out for him.

By Reid Wilson

Businessman Randy Altschuler (R) is up with his first ad slamming Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY).

The straight-to-camera ad has Altschuler seeking to focus voter anger at Bishop. Though Bishop never served in the state legislature, Altschuler cites "shenanigans in Albany" along with DC bailouts.

Altschuler's campaign has paid National Media Inc., Alex Castellanos' media firm, according to FEC reports. Cold Harbor Films, an arm of National Media, produced the ad.

Altschuler is a favorite of the NRCC. A member of the third tier of the Young Guns program, he got in the race against Bishop early and is off to a fast fundraising start. Altschuler raised $663K through Sept., more than the $564K Bishop raised in the same period. Altschuler finished the 3rd quarter with $538K in the bank. Bishop retained $710K CoH.

The seat is one GOPers will have to win if they are going to take back the majority. Bishop beat then-Rep. Felix Grucci (R) by 1 point in '02, then won re-election in '04 even as the district went for Pres. Bush.

And expect House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to play a big role in Altschuler's ads. A McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll for Altschuler's campaign showed Pelosi with just a 32% fav rating and a 55% unfav rating.

Full script after the jump.

Hotline subscribers get our Quote of the Day every week day. Now, we've pulled the ten best Quotes of the Year, the most controversial, telling, important and bizarre utterances from the year in politics.

In chronological order, a remarkable year in politics:

1. "But that will change. Something will come up. Somebody will err. Something will come out of the unforeseen." -- George H.W. Bush, on Pres.-elect Obama's good start, "Fox News Sunday," 1/4. Obama's approval rating that day stood at 68%, according to Gallup. Today, it stands at 47.9%, according to the latest Pollster.com aggregate.

2. "If this is bipartisanship, count me out." -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), on Pres. Obama's outreach to GOPers on the stimulus package, FNC, 2/5. All but 3 GOPers -- including now-Dem Arlen Specter -- voted against the stimulus package. House and Senate GOPers spent much of the year voting en masse against Dem initiatives.

3. "I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate." -- Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), in a 4/28 release, bolting from the party he's called home for 4 decades. Just 2 weeks earlier, NRSC chair John Cornyn had offered Specter his support: "My job as head of the NRSC is to guide the GOP back to a majority in the Senate. I can't do that without Arlen Specter," Cornyn wrote in a letter to PA GOPers.

4. "I don't know." - SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R), asked why his staff thought he was hiking on the Appalachian Trail, Columbia State, 6/24. He announced, in a tearful press conference at the State House in Columbia, he had a year-long affair with an Argentinian woman -- an admission that effectively ended his WH'12 hopes. 2 weeks later, Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), another WH'12 contender, confessed to his own affair with a former campaign aide and close family friend.

5. "[Obama] is a friend. He said it publicly." - NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D), PolitickerNJ.com, 7/1. Despite several POTUS visits to NJ on Corzine's behalf, and visits to VA for state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D), GOPers won both seats in Nov. VA Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R) won by 18 points, while NJ Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R) became the first GOPer elected statewide in the Garden State since '97. With an increasingly anti-incumbent national mood, GOPers end '09 in much better position for electoral gains than the '08 election results would have suggested.

6. "I am with you in heart and mind and soul, and I wish very much that I could be with you in person." - Senate HELP Cmte Chair Ted Kennedy (D-MA), to cmte members voting on health-care reform, mult., 7/15. Kennedy, who backed Obama in the '08 primaries after securing a promise that Obama would push for health care reform, died 8/25. "I will miss him every day I serve, and every day I live," Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), Kennedy's closest friend in the Senate, said after his passing.

By Tim Sahd

For college football fans, yesterday's news that Univ. of Florida head football coach Urban Meyer has decided to retire is a stunning revelation. In fact, the reaction is similar to the aftermath of a Congressional retirement, and it's hard not to see parallels between Meyer's announcement and those of some recent Dem House retirements.

Meyer, like House Dems, enjoyed a stunningly successful 2008. Last Jan., Florida capped their season by winning its second national championship under Meyer, while Dems saw their WH nominee score a surprisingly comfortable victory. Both entered 2009 with extremely high expectations; Pres. Obama and his enlargened Cong. majorities had an ambitious agenda, while Meyer's Heisman-winning quarterback, Tim Tebow, delighted Gator Nation by deciding to return for his senior year. Indeed, fans anticipated another national title.

But not everything has gone according to plan for either Dems or Meyer and his Gators. Obama's agenda, which included the stimulus, cap-and-trade and health care, has so far appeared to damage his party's fortunes for '10 down-ballot candidates. And Florida's 2009, while no means a failure, failed to live up to expectations of back-to-back championships.

Meyer attributed his health to his sudden resignation. And that's very easy to understand, as he's reportedly been in and out of hospitals the last several weeks. But his condition is not life-threatening, and one has to wonder, if Tebow - who's headed to the NFL - was instead coming back for another year, and Florida was again expected to be an elite team, whether Meyer would stick it out for one last run at a championship?

While his resignation was completely unexpected, so are the retirements of several Dems, like Reps. Brian Baird (D-WA) and Bart Gordon (D-TN). They are two of nine Dems who have decided not to run for re-election in '10, and are from the more recent batch of four incumbents who sit in vulnerable districts who have made their decisions to step aside. Both were not on many potential retirement lists at the beginning of the cycle, but both decided to hang it up.

Sure, they all listed family or health as the main reasons for their departure. But would they be retiring if '10 was shaping up to be another stellar year for Dems, and not the troubling cycle that many forecast for them?

So, just as college football fans were stunned at the news of Meyer's unexpected departure, politicos have also been surprised at some of the names that have announced their political retirement. Don't be surprised if other Dems - ones that don't immediately come to mind as retirement possibilities - come to the same conclusion.

By Abby Livingston

With ABC's Jake Tapper and Terry Moran pinch-hitting as "This Week" moderators, we couldn't help noticing CNN's Candy Crowley is filling in as well.

Crowley, an oft-discussed contender to fill John King's chair at "State of the Union," is doing just that while King is on vacation this week.

When King was off last summer, CNN's Jessica Yellin subbed in.

A source also tells Hotline OnCall that Crowley had lunch just before Christmas with CNN worldwide pres. Jim Walton at Bistro Bis, the hot new restaurant near CNN's DC bureau.

Crowley and Tapper, who took his turn on "This Week" today, weren't the only subs. Slate's John Dickerson, the CBS political analyst who frequently sits in for Bob Schieffer on "Face the Nation," showed up to interview WH press sec. Robert Gibbs and Reps. Peter King (R-NY) and Jim Clyburn (D-SC).

David Gregory was the only regular host on air this morning, though he filmed from WLEX-TV in Lexington, KY.

By Abby Livingston

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, MA Gov. Deval Patrick and NBC's Andrea Mitchell.

Face the Nation hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, House Maj. Whip James Clyburn and Rep. Peter King (R-NY). The roundtable will feature CBS' Armen Keteyian and CBS' Juan Zarate.

This Week hosts Homeland Sec. Sec. Janet Napolitano, WH press sec. Robert Gibbs and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell. The roundtable will feature New York Times' David Brooks, ex-Bush strategist Matthew Dowd, New York Times' Paul Krugman and Washington Post's Ruth Marcus.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, Sen. Robert Melendez (D-NJ), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, AP's Jennifer Loven, radio host Laura Ingraham and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts ex-WH CoS Andrew Card, ex-WH sr. adviser David Gergen, ex-WH CoS John Podesta, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), Dem strategist James Carville, GOP strategist Mary Matalin, and Selma Mayor George Patrick Evans (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Shot: "We got here because governing became all about power and not about Republican principles, leading to out-of-control government spending, deficits, earmarks and finally bailouts during the George W. Bush administration. It also became all about 'winning elections,' not about advancing the conservative agenda."

-- RNC vice chair/IN RNC committeeman Jim Bopp, warning last weekend of the consequences if GOPers don't return to their conservative roots, in an op-ed in The Washington Times.

Chaser: "All that is required for the Democratic Party to recover its political footing is to acknowledge that the agenda of the party's most liberal supporters has not won the support of a majority of Americans -- and, based on that recognition, to steer a more moderate course on the key issues of the day, from health care to the economy to the environment to Afghanistan."

-- Ex-Commerce Sec. William Daley, in his own op-ed in the Washington Post, warning of the consequences if Dems don't moderate the party, in the wake of Rep. Parker Griffith's (R-AL) party switch.

GOPers have been examining their party's future since the '06 elections. Dems, now that they sense the political winds shifting against them, are undergoing their own omphaloskepsis.

The storyline of the next few years will revolve around which party solves their internal problems first, and whether they can keep the debates from ripping their party apart.

By Reid Wilson

Though studies last year had good news for AZ and OR, new analysis of Census data now suggests the 2 states won't win as many new seats as earlier population trends seemed to indicate.

AZ will gain just 1 seat in reapportionment, while OR will miss out. Instead, it could be WA that picks up an additional seat.

According to the analysis, TX will still pick up 4 seats. AZ, FL, GA, NV, SC, UT and WA will all add new seats. Meanwhile, IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY and PA each lose a seat, while OH is the big loser, dropping 2 seats.

Here's another look, March Madness style, at the last states to pick up a seat and the first seats that will miss out on theirs. Like yesterday, we're adding the margin by which a state makes or misses that seat.

Seat # / State / District / Margin

Last In
431 / SC / 7th / 20,000
432 / WA / 10th / 30,000
433 / CA / 53rd / 120,000
434 / TX / 36th / 40,000
435 / MO / 9th / 10,000
First Out
436 / MN / 8th / 10,000
437 / OR / 6th / 20,000
438 / AZ / 10th / 50,000
439 / FL / 27th / 150,000
440 / NC / 14th / 75,000

IL, OH, NJ, MA and LA will all fall just short of keeping their seats.

Of the states slated to lose seats, GOP incumbents are likely to be in the most trouble. IL, NJ, MN, NY and MA all have Dem-dominated legislatures. The OH legislature is controlled by GOPers, though if Gov. Ted Strickland (D) survives a tough re-election battle he will be able to exert some influence over the process.

PA has an open GOV race and a narrowly-divided legislature. IA has changed its redistricting process, putting the legislature and the governor on the sidelines.

Watch this emerging line of attack Dems will use any time the GOP approaches one of their members about switching parties: It gives Dems the chance to claim bipartisanship.

"I am flattered by the overtures of Sen. McCain and other Republican Party officials and consider their outreach a sure sign that I have worked in a truly bipartisan manner," Rep. Chris Carney said in a statement after he declined GOP overtures to switch parties.

GOPers will target Carney and others next year, but if those Dems have been approached as potential party switchers, they will argue they are representing their districts in a bipartisan manner.

The GOP got a big win when they convinced Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) to switch parties. But by approaching Carney and failing to convert him, they make their argument against him all the more difficult.

The NRCC could decide to argue that Carney, as a Dem, will vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. But strategists see the impact Pelosi will have on the '10 midterms differently, and Carney's bipartisan argument will be a powerful counterpoint.

With decennial reapportionment just around the corner, Sun Belt states look set to make big gains, while Rust Belt states will continue their century-long decline in Congressional influence.

A new report from Election Data Services shows an increasing population shift toward states in the West and the Southwest, with statistical models suggesting AZ, FL and TX will be big winners next year. AZ and FL will gain 2 seats each, according to most models, while TX will pick up a whopping 4 seats.

Population growth has been strong enough that GA, NV, SC and UT are likely to gain an additional seat each, according to most models. Some models, based on measurements of population shifts over different time periods this decade, show OR gaining a 6th seat, and one model suggests NC could gain an extra seat.

Meanwhile, OH is the only state expected to lose 2 seats. Other Northeastern and Midwestern states, including PA, NY, NJ, MO, MN, MI, MA, IA and IL, are likely to lose 1 seat. Only 1 state in the South, LA, is expected to lose a seat, thanks to population declines after Hurricane Katrina.

NY is no stranger to losing seats in redistricting. After winning 45 seats following the 1940 Census, the state has lost seats every 10 years since. Now, the state has just 29 members of Congress.

But some models predict a new state will experience the pain of losing a seat. Models that focus on medium-term population shifts say CA will lose 1 seat for the first time since it became a state. The Golden State may get a break, though; long- and short-term models say the state has grown rapidly enough to keep each of its 53 seats.

For more on reapportionment, check out Rich Cohen's breakdown of the winners and losers. And check back later today for our list of the states who barely made, and those who barely missed out on, winning another seat.

By Reid Wilson

A rare party switch has GOPers basking in favorable coverage, but Dems are quietly yet ferociously working behind the scenes to prevent any more defections.

Following Rep. Parker Griffith's (R-AL) switch from Dems to the GOP, the GOP has approached at least one other member -- Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA) -- about changing stripes. Carney received a phone call earlier this week from Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), a fellow Navy vet.

Dem leaders have begun proactively reaching out to any potential party-switchers, as they did to Carney. Carney released a statement late Wednesday in which he indicated he would not change parties.

But Dems are worried GOPers will approach others within their ranks. DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen is checking in with any members rumored to be approached by GOPers, and Dems are acting quickly to counteract any rumors of local or national GOP figures approaching their caucus members.

Dems are worried, after McCain's overture to Carney, that the GOP is using a combination of national and local GOP officials to pressure Dem members to switch parties.

A top House Dem aide said House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer will be checking in with members rumored to be GOP targets as well, though a spokesperson for Hoyer would not comment for this story.

One member who has been singled out by GOPers as a possible party-switcher, Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID), has emphatically denied he has any plans to do anything but repeat his '08 performance, despite a voting record that includes fewer votes with Dem leadership than Griffith's.

"I will remain as independent as Idaho, I will not be switching parties, and I will win in November," Minnick said in a statement emailed to Hotline OnCall by his spokesman.

Meanwhile, anyone the GOP does approach could benefit in the long run, one Dem leadership aide suggests. It becomes easier, the aide said, to separate oneself from Dem leadership every time GOPers approach a given member.

"Clearly, they don't think they can beat these members, so they're trying to buy them," the aide said.

By Reid Wilson

Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) is now the first GOPer to represent his district following his party switch, but the Huntsville-based seat has never actually elected anyone from his new party.

That means Dems will do their best to seriously contest the seat, and the party already has a well-known potential candidate taking a look at the race in state Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D). Sparks, who is currently in the GOV race, wrote on his Facebook page that the DCCC called him yesterday, per Swing State Project.

"As you may know, I received a call from the DCCC yesterday regarding the 5th congressional seat abandoned by Parker Griffith. We will be considering all of our options in the days and weeks ahead," Sparks wrote in a status update.

Meanwhile, Griffith was received with open arms by GOPers on Capitol Hill, and for good reason: His defection is a very public blow to the Dem majority. But GOPers in his district, and in the activist class, are less thrilled.

Businessman Les Phillip (R) and Madison Co. Commis. Mo Brooks (R) each said they would stay in the race, and that they look forward to debating Griffith. And though Griffith's party label has changed, the issues GOPers will press him on have not.

"I look forward to debating Parker Griffith and giving him every opportunity to explain to Republican Primary voters how Parker Griffith's vote to empower House Speaker Pelosi and how his 800+ votes with House Speaker Pelosi are in the best interest of America or qualify him to represent Republican Party values in the upcoming general election," Brooks wrote in a statement.

"I have to admit Congressman Parker Griffith is right about how this health care reform bill will tragically and adversely affect the majority of Americans and small business," added Phillip. "But, I have to wonder, why the change of heart NOW after Parker Griffith has repeatedly stood behind Nancy Pelosi and participated in the liberal politics going on in Washington today."

In fact, attacking Griffith's conversion as a way to solidify one's own conservative bona fides appeared all the rage on Wednesday. State Treas. Kay Ivey (R), who is running for GOV, blasted Griffith even as she campaigns to head the ticket next year.

"I can't help but regard this 'Road to Damascus' conversion of Parker Griffith's as solely a ploy to cling to his seat in 2010. We're all well-aware of the increasingly negative poll results for Democrats in Alabama and around the nation," Ivey said in a statement. "Political self-preservation isn't a virtue. In fact, political expediency is an insult to every grassroots activist who commits untold hours in devotion to getting candidates elected."

The conservative blog RedState mulled whether a stronger conservative could take Griffith's place in the GOP primary, while the Club for Growth expressed discontent with his voting record, even though Griffith voted against several key parts of the Dem agenda.

Griffith has had a rough first day as a GOPer. As we told you earlier, he lost his committee assignments (Several GOP spokespeople have yet to return emails about which committees he will be reassigned to). He also lost his press secretary; Sean Magers has quit, he confirmed in an email to Hotline OnCall. And Griffith's hometown paper blasted him in an editorial accusing him of political opportunism.

The bottom line is that GOPers have a seat today that they didn't have yesterday. But if Dems run a real candidate -- and Sparks' public note is an indication he's seriously contemplating it -- the seat will get expensive for both the NRCC and the DCCC. Dems outspent GOPers 3-1 there in '08; now, it might actually cost GOPers more to save the seat than it may have to beat Griffith in the first place.

Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) has lost seats on the House Transportation, Small Business and Science and Technology Committees after switching parties.

In letters to chairs James Oberstar (D-MN), Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) and Bart Gordon (D-TN), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi officially informed them that the freshman, who switched parties yesterday, would no longer serve on their committees.

Here's video, courtesy of C-SPAN, of the House being officially informed of the move, made earlier today. Dem Conference Chair John Larson (D-CT) is in the chair.

By Steven Shepard

A majority of voters believes the earth is warming, but the nation is split on what, if anything, the Obama admin. should do to stop or reverse climate change, according to two new polls released today.

According to a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll, 59% of RVs believe in global warming, though only 57% of those who do believe in global warming think it has been caused mainly by human activities.

Meanwhile, a new poll released this a.m. by the Nat'l Wildlife Federation shows that 67% of RVs believe in global warming, but 54% of GOPers do not. In the Q poll, 52% of GOP respondents said they didn't believe in global warming.

The Nat'l Wildlife Federation poll, conducted by Benenson Strategy Group (D), shows support for efforts to combat climate change, with 82% of voters supporting the U.S. gov't increasing investment in clean energy sources and 67% of voters supporting the gov't limiting carbon pollution and other gases that may cause global warming.

But the Q poll cuts to what could be the pivot point for moderate Dems as the Senate takes up climate-change legislation in '10: Asked by pollsters if the Obama admin. is "striking the right balance between helping reduce greenhouse gases and protecting American jobs," 38% of RVs say that the admin. is going too far in protecting the environment at the expense of jobs.

Just 36% of voters say the admin. is striking the right balance. Among indie voters, only 32% believe in the admin.'s approach, while 39% believe its going too far at the expense of jobs. Just 14% of GOPers believe the admin. is striking the right balance.

By Reid Wilson

Politics makes for strange bedfellows, but none quite as strange as when a party has to embrace a former member of the opposition. Now, after Rep. Parker Griffith's (R-AL) party switch, both the DCCC and the NRCC are having to deal with earlier comments they made about the freshman.

The NRCC spent $591K on ads in AL-05 last cycle on behalf of GOP nominee Wayne Parker. The party focused on accusations that Griffith ran his medical practice in a way that maximized profits at the expense of patients.

NRCC spokesperson Brendan Buck called accusations about Griffith's record at Huntsville Hospital "stunning." If they were true, he said, Griffith "is wholly unfit to serve the people of" AL.

Meanwhile, NRCC spokesperson Ken Spain assailed Griffith for taking $7K from Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), echoing attacks made against any Dem who received a contribution from the Ways and Means chair. And Spain repeatedly hit Griffith for voting for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi earlier this year, accusing Griffith of giving Pelosi "a blank check" to pursue a liberal agenda.

But the DCCC, which is understandably upset after spending $1.4M to defend Griffith last year, when he won his seat by just 4 points, has their own statements to walk back. Chair Chris Van Hollen yesterday asked for the party's money back, but the pollster Van Hollen's organization paid to help Griffith has defended him in the past.

"The voting public made their mind up on what to believe or what not to believe about [Griffith's] record as a doctor," Dem pollster John Anzalone told Roll Call in a Feb. story. "The reality is that Parker Griffith as a doctor was respected and was able to come back and refute [those attacks]."

DCCC spokesperson Kyra Jennings called Griffith "an effective and independent voice for" his constituents. He "shares their values," Jennings said in a statement on the DCCC's blog from Oct. 15, '08. That statement has since been removed, though a cache version is still available.

We've heard from more than a few GOPers that Griffith's switch by no means ensures him a clear shot through a primary field, while Dems maintain the district remains historically on their side. But when both parties take shots at Griffith, expect to see the other side lob a few of these quotes right back.

By Reid Wilson

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) scored a minor coup early on in his Senate campaign when he won endorsements from Reps. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R), the only pair of brothers in Congress.

The Diaz-Balarts, who are of Cuban heritage, represent heavily Hispanic districts near Miami. They were supposed to give Crist inroads to Cuban voters, many of whom might otherwise side with ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

So it raised eyebrows in recent days when the Diaz-Balarts' names no longer appeared on Crist's website as key endorsers. And the brothers are not helping to shed much light on the situation. In a brief interview with the Miami Herald published today, Lincoln Diaz-Balart would only say Crist "left us no alternative and he knows why."

Hotline OnCall has confirmed both members pulled their endorsement, but staffers with each office referred us back to earlier news accounts, refusing to elaborate. A spokesperson for Lincoln referred us to the Herald story, while a spokesperson for Mario stuck to an AP story.

The Herald points to Crist's decision to bypass a local state's atty for a judgeship as the potential reason for the Diaz-Balarts' anger. But the appointment was made in North FL, far from the Diaz-Balarts' sphere of influence (though Lincoln's son interned with the candidate who was passed over). Lincoln told the paper Crist's decision not to pick him to fill out Sen. Mel Martinez's (R) term had nothing to do with rescinding the endorsement.

In the 6 months since the Diaz-Balarts jointly endorsed Crist, on July 6, Rubio has stoked conservative flames and built himself a foundation from which to attack his rival. Rubio has assailed Crist's support for the stimulus bill, forcing Crist to hit back and attack Rubio's own record.

The Diaz-Balarts said they are unlikely to back Rubio, and their endorsements alone won't be enough to tip the race in Rubio's favor as it is. But it's another blow to the once-invincible Crist, keeping Rubio in the race despite the massive fundraising lead Crist boasts.

By Reid Wilson

Rep. Parker Griffith's (R-AL) surprise decision to abandon the Dem Party in favor of the GOP is an early Christmas present for the minority, but it doesn't signal the impending demise of the Dem majority.

Griffith had a tough battle just to get his seat, beating a virtually unknown GOP rival by only 4 points in '08. At the same time, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) carried his district with 61%.

During his year in Congress as a Dem, Griffith voted with GOPers on most party-line votes. He opposed the stimulus bill, cap and trade and health care legislation. He even said he would not vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker when the 112th Congress convenes in Jan. '11.

But after a Dec. in which 4 Dems in swing districts announced they would not seek re-election, Griffith's decision to abandon his party cannot be seen as anything but a blow to Dems. If someone with his voting record is deciding to run as a GOPer instead of a Dem, that could suggest he is seeing polling that scares him.

Expect GOPers to suggest that the next to flip may be Reps. Walt Minnick (D-ID), Bobby Bright (D-AL) and Travis Childers (D-MS). All 3 represent deep red districts, and all 3 vote with their party 80% of the time or less -- a lower frequency than Griffith voted with Dem leaders, according to the Washington Post vote tracker.

GOP sources hint that there may be more party switches to come, sounding as confident as they have been with an impending, but not yet obvious, wave of retirements. Dems insist there are no other murmurings, and indeed no one has given indications like Griffith did when he said he wouldn't support Pelosi.

Meanwhile, if Dems are looking for a silver lining on the otherwise cloudy story, they've just saved themselves a ton of money and what could have been a big headache. The party spent $1.2M on independent expenditures on Griffith last year, along with another $200K on field operations. And, as a member of the Dems' Frontline Program for vulnerable incumbents, Griffith was sucking up money that can now be used on other endangered members.

By Reid Wilson and Tim Sahd

GOP Leaders worked with Rep. Parker Griffith (D-AL) "for quite some time" to get him on board, but talks began when Griffith approached Rep. Jo Bonner (R-AL) about making the switch, according to a GOP source. Min. Leader John Boehner then became involved, and the discussions later culminated when Griffith met with Boehner and NRCC chair Pete Sessions last week.

Because of these meetings, the NRCC -- which had gone after Griffith vigorously this cycle in hopes of taking the seat in '10 -- stopped hitting him on 12/11. On 12/20, Griffith called Boehner to make the switch official.

The source said the "key point" came this fall when Griffith was among the first Dems to sign onto the "read the bill" discharge petition, an issue that Boehner and other GOPers had been driving hard. The measure, which only a handful of Dems signed on to, required that legislation be posted for 72 hours online before a vote.

It was the second time Griffith had openly gone against his party's leadership. Earlier this summer, he told a townhall that he wouldn't vote to re-elect Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.

The source added there were no "deals" struck between Griffith and the GOP leaders, only assurances that he'd be welcomed into the Conference as a GOPer "with full standing."

UPDATE: A Dem source noted that while all of his back-and-forth with GOPers was going on, Griffith actually took the time to attend the 12/9 DCCC holiday party, an event that featured Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That doesn't exactly paint the picture of a man wavering in his party commitments.

By Jamie Shufflebarger

Sen. Chris Dodd's (D) camp released an internal poll 12/21 showing him tied with ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) and losing to ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) by 5 percent. And this is supposed to be good news.

The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll was conducted 12/15-17 for Dodd's campaign. It surveyed 601 LVs for a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. Dodd, Simmons and McMahon were tested.

General Election Matchups

Simmons        51%
Dodd           46

Dodd           46%
McMahon        46

Dodd is "holding his ground" against his rivals, according to a polling memo circulated by Dodd allies. But even an informed ballot only gives Dodd a 5-point edge over McMahon and a statistical tie with Simmons.

The memo finishes with a flourish: "With a strong and aggressive campaign, Chris Dodd can win next November."

That hardly sounds like the confidence of a 5-term incumbent who, until just a few years ago, was the most popular political figure in his very blue state.

As we ask in today's Spotlight, is this Dodd's way of brushing back the rampant retirement rumors, or could this be the foundations for a graceful exit?

By Reid Wilson

Businessman Jack McDonald (D) will drop out of the race against Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX) today, robbing Dems of a wealthy recruit in the race against what could be a vulnerable GOPer.

McDonald, the former CEO of information technology firm Perficient Inc., will cite business reasons in a statement. The Nasdaq-listed company reported last month that its profits had plummeted by some 95% during the economic downturn.

McDonald stepped down as CEO in Sept. but remained on board as the company's chair while he began his run for Congress.

It is a blow to Dems who had hoped to give McCaul a top-notch challenger. McDonald had raised a stunning $932K through the end of Sept., ending the quarter with $805K in the bank. McDonald is wealthy, but he lent his campaign just $26K, indicating he had real fundraising prowess.

Had he stayed in, McDonald would have faced the 3-term McCaul, who survived a closer-than-expected contest last year with atty Larry Joe Doherty (D). McCaul won the race by a narrow 54%-43% margin.

Dems argue the district, which stretches from the Houston suburbs to the Austin suburbs, is trending their way. Fully 25% of the district's residents are Hispanic, a number that is growing, and in '08 Pres. Obama improved on Sen. John Kerry's '04 performance by 6 points.

A Dem source could not immediately point to the next candidate in line after McDonald drops out. The party will head back to the drawing board to try and recruit a new challenger. But for now, McCaul is a lot safer in his bid for a 4th term.

By Reid Wilson

GOPers are hinting Pelosi, as much as Obama, will play a central role in ads against Dems next year

But after years of frustration, some wonder whether putting Pelosi front and center will actually work.

Pelosi is, arguably, better known by the electorate than any speaker in American history, with the possible exception of Newt Gingrich. But the fact that 83% of Americans have an opinion of her, according to the latest GWU/Battleground poll, is not a good thing; of those who have an opinion, just 30% see her favorably, while 53% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 44% say their opinion of her is "strongly" unfavorable.

"If you're a Dem in a swing district who has cast votes with Pelosi on cap-and-trade and health care, that's a serious problem," GOP pollster Jon McHenry said in an email. "As long as Pres. Obama retains a net favorable rating in a district, you don't want to tie the Dems to him, so Pelosi is kind of an obvious choice."

The GOP has tried to tie Dem candidates to Pelosi in the past. Just this year, the NRCC ran ads linking Reps. Scott Murphy (D) and Bill Owens (D) to Pelosi, but both won special elections to fill open seats. In fact, the NRCC has used Pelosi and the specter of San Francisco liberalism in ads hitting Dems in '06 and '08, to little impact.

But that has not deterred GOPers from trying again, and some independent observers say they could succeed this time. Already, GOPers have made a concerted effort to tie Dems in conservative-leaning districts to unpopular votes Dems have had to take this year, smearing the "Pelosi agenda."

"Pelosi will hurt the Dems badly in marginal districts," said Brad Coker, the independent pollster at Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "Remember, most of their recent gains have been in more middle-to-conservative districts that had elected Republicans on a fairly frequent basis. As Speaker, it is pretty clear to the average voter that Pelosi has lurched the party back to the left -- not to the middle as most of the freshman classes of 2006 and 2008 had promised their voters back home."

On a district-by-district basis, Pelosi can be an effective substitute for the GOP, while at a national level the party will by necessity focus on Obama, said Chris Perkins, a GOP pollster with Wilson Research Strategies.

"While Pelosi and her policies will be of good use in a district-by-district case, the Democrats national agenda will be pushed by President Obama. He is the President and has the bully pulpit," Perkins said. "Based on past trends, the House Republicans best strategy would be to tie both Obama and Pelosi together. The more they can take advantage of the president's downward-moving approval rating, the more Pelosi's policies look radical to the American people from a district-by-district perspective."

By Reid Wilson

Freshman Rep. Parker Griffith will announce later this afternoon that he will run for re-election as a GOPer, sources confirm to Hotline OnCall.

Griffith will hold a press conference at 1pm Central Time in his district in AL, a GOP source said, to announce his decision.

The news, first reported by Politico, comes as a blow to House Dems, who are already fighting to stem a slowly growing number of retirements. The defection will raise new questions about GOP chances to take over the House next year.

Griffith was narrowly elected in a northern AL district that gave Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a 61%-38% win over Pres. Obama. He replaced retiring Rep. Bud Cramer (D), and he has charted a largely conservative course during his first term, going as far as to say he would not vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during biennial leadership elections.

Griffith voted against health care reform legislation, against cap and trade and against the economic stimulus measure passed in Feb. But he voted with Dems to expand children's health insurance programs and for the second TARP measure.

The move has to be especially galling to the DCCC, which invested more than $1.2M in keeping the seat in Dem hands. The party spent heavily on Griffith's election bid, and he has benefited from thousands in contributions that have passed through the DCCC because he is a member of the Frontline Program for vulnerable incumbents.

The NRCC spent $591K on behalf of GOP nominee Wayne Parker.

The move is likely to cost Griffith thousands of dollars as well. At least 21 Dem members have contributed to his campaign, and all are expected to seek a refund. Griffith also received contributions from the Blue Dog PAC and the New Dem PAC, as well as from WH CoS Rahm Emanuel's PAC.

Dem sources said Griffith had not told his staff of his impending switch by the time news broke. Many party switchers have seen staffers walk out en masse after they defect.

OH Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) is asking donors to give money to 3 prefered charities during the holiday season. In an email to contributors, Brunner asks that money be sent to a mental health advocacy center in Franklin Co.; the Arbor Day Foundation; and the National Parks & Recreation Assoc.

Brunner has been plagued by low fundraising totals. Through Sept., she pulled in just $582K and had only $111K in the bank.

But the headline is just begging for an easy joke: "Don't give money to my US Senate campaign this week ..." it reads.

That led one Hotline editor to giggle: "Hmmm, so far this hasn't been a problem."

The full letter, along with links to the very worthy charities, is here.

By Reid Wilson

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is soliciting funds for SC AG Henry McMaster (R), a close ally and one of the frontrunners in the GOP GOV primary.

In a letter penned to donors, McCain calls McMaster a leader "with integrity, experience, good judgment and solid conservative principles." The letter, sent last week and paid for by McMaster's campaign, cites the candidate's experience as a US Atty and as AG.

"John McCain is an American hero and dear friend to many people across South Carolina. His service and sacrifice have made our country a better place. The attorney general is honored to have John McCain's support," said Rob Godfrey, McMaster's spokesman.

Helping McMaster is a bit of payback for McCain: McMaster was statewide chair of McCain's '08 pres. bid, when a win over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney in SC gave McCain the momentum to win FL and outperform his rivals on Super Tuesday.

Other major GOPers are getting involved in the race as well. Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) recently traveled to SC to hold a fundraiser for Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), another leading contender. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) is backing Barrett, while ex-UT Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) endorsed McMaster before he was appointed ambassador to China.

Huckabee has endorsed LG Andre Bauer (R) in the primary.

By Rachelle Douillard-Proulx & Abby Livingston

"World News" led with health care reform. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the winter storm.

Pols discussed 12/21 the deal Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) cut to become the Dems' final vote to move forward with health care reform.

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), on whether CA should demand full Medicaid like NE: "When we see a senator like Senator Nelson hold up a bill and able to cut that kind of deal, it certainly makes us think that maybe we should be fighting harder, also, for our states. Of course, we would like not to have the states have to pay their share of Medicaid. Of course, we are in deficit here. Many states are. Now, he's got a special deal and some of us are not going to like that very much" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 12/21).

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), on Nelson: "My state's going to have to pay more money to meet that obligation, except for Nebraska, because he was the 60th vote. That's not change anybody can believe in" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 12/21).

Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), on Nelson: "It appears the last senator gets the most baggage on the train. There's, unfortunately, a lot of baggage on this train. This bill is passed with a lot of special interest deals being done, which means that, probably, the policy wasn't all that good or the policy would have carried it on its own" ("On the Record," FNC, 12/21).

After the jump, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) discusses his controversial comments and pols and pundits weigh in on the Senate health care bill.

By Reid Wilson

Good Tuesday morning. A programming note: Your OnCall editor will be on the West Coast for a few days, but that doesn't mean we're taking it easy. Check back for the latest breaking political news any time and we'll be here.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people who will make news today:

54% OF AMERICA: That's the number of voters who approve of Pres. Obama in the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll, up 6 points from the early Dec. survey. 44% disapprove, down 6 points. The jump comes with a corresponding increase in the number of Americans who say they support the Senate's health care legislation -- 42% back it, up from 36% earlier this month, but 56% still oppose it.

So, is this Obama's comeback, or is it merely a blip, one of the rare polls that finds an unrepresentative sample? Time will tell, but for Dems and GOPers, the answer has huge real-world consequences.

GOPers are passing around a spreadsheet, put together by the GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, that tracks House gains and losses based on a pres.'s approval ratings. Any WH incumbent over 60% on Election Day gains a seat or 2. Between 50% and 60% and the incumbent party loses around 10 seats. But any pres. under 50% loses an average of 40 or so seats. Those figures indicate just how closely Dems' fates are linked with Obama's success, or failure. Keep an eye on his approval rating -- which stands at 48.5%, according to the latest Pollster.com average. We guarantee Dems on Capitol Hill are watching it very closely.

ANNUAL RATES: Obama's approval ratings are tied not only to the success, or failure, of health care legislation, but to the rebounding economy as well. The admin will get more good news today when the gov't announces the economy expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in the 3rd quarter, in line with expectations.

It is the first quarter of economic growth since the 2nd quarter of '08, and Dems need the trend to continue. With unemployment hovering around 10% and not expected to fall back to normal levels -- half that rate -- for years, the WH has to at least show some progress in order to claim credit for a rebound.

Of course, GOPers aren't about to let that happen without a fight, and the opposition is aiming at a key lagging indicator as the only evidence they say they need: That pesky unemployment rate. Expect "jobless recovery" to be the buzzword of the year as GOPers assert that Dem economic policies aren't working.

By John Mercurio

There's a lot of hay being made today -- by GOPers, liberal bloggers and, just now, the major TV net news -- about the curiously named "Cornhusker Kickback" that Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) extracted from Dems in exchange for backing health-care reform. And, to be sure, a backroom deal that actually exempted NE from ever having to pay for the Medicaid expansion would be worth the wagging.

But here's the thing: It's never gonna happen. And Nelson knows it. Just ask Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND).

Just a day after the deal was written into the Senate bill, Conrad, chair of the Senate Budget Cmte, went on "Fox News Sunday" and, in a largely overlooked remark, kicked the Kickback to the curb.

Conrad told FNS' Wallace that the Senate bill exempts every state from the Medicaid expansion until '17. "And the fact is no Congress can bind a future Congress," he added. "So that's, frankly, not without a whole lot of meaning. Let's just be frank."

In other words, Dems agreed to include the NE language in the Senate bill in order to give Nelson some quick and easy bragging rights back home, as he prepares for a potentially tough reelection bid in '12. Meanwhile, it gives Dems some breathing room (more than six years, or a full Senate term) within which to brush the Medicaid exemption under the rug.

Of course, the ploy has also handed a big talking point to GOPers like Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who made a point of singling out Nelson's sweetheart deal on FNS.

"I'll let the American people judge the fact that Medicaid costs will not be borne by the state of Nebraska forever, and that puts an added burden on all the other states, including mine," he said.

By Jamie Shufflebarger

Buried inside Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's 12/19 manager's amendment was a mysterious $100M for an unspecified "Health Care Facility." It was confirmed by ABC News' "The Note" and AP that Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) inserted the following paragraph into the health care bill on behalf of his home state:

"(a) APPROPRIATION.--There are authorized to be appropriated, and there are appropriated to the Department of Health and Human Services, $100,000,000 for fiscal year 2010, to remain available for obligation until September 30, 2011, to be used for debt service on, or direct construction or renovation of, a health care facility that provides research, inpatient tertiary care, or outpatient clinical services. Such facility shall be affiliated with an academic health center at a public research university in the United States that contains a State's sole public academic medical and dental school" (Manager's Amendment To H.R. 3590, Pg. 328).

Dodd spokesperson Bryan DeAngelis said 12/21 that ultimately HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebelius will make the decision on which state will receive the $100M.

"Senator Dodd pushed for this program in the hopes that the University of Connecticut would receive these funds, but there are at least 11 other states that also qualify," said DeAngelis. "Senator Dodd will do everything he can to make sure UCONN and Connecticut are at the top of the list."

But Ex-Rep./SEN candidate Rob Simmons (R) wasted no time in attacking Dodd for the $100M, as well as the larger health care bill.

In a release 12/21, Simmons called the hospital facility funds a "pork-barrel project" inserted in a "back-room deal." Simmons spokesperson Raj Shah could not say whether Simmons would oppose the funds if they were allocated to UCONN through the normal HHS process.

By Tim Sahd

HRH is snowed in, but while we dig out a new parking spot because someone stole the space we took hours to dig out, here are a few tidbits on the House front:

-- Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) is the latest Dem to deny retirement rumors and say he's running for re-election, at least this year. He added he's considering a '12 GOV bid, and could retire then.

As Hotline OnCall reported earlier this month, GOPers have an unofficial list of 17 Dems they hope to coax to retire. So far, five have confirmed they're staying, and two more are expected to stay. At this early stage, one (TN's Bart Gordon) has opted for retirement.

The GOP effort is a mixed blessing for Dems. It's helpful in that it's forced these vulnerable Dems to go on the record and state their re-election intentions. That helps leadership get a more accurate accounting of what to expect. But it's also led to increased questions about the intentions of those who haven't commented, especially longtime Rep. John Spratt (D-SC). But Spratt, too, was forced to declare today that he's running for re-election. The pressure's been ratcheted up by GOPers, and Dems are holding their own, for now.

-- It's interesting to hear that ex-U.S. Atty Tom Marino (R) is again considering a run against Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA). Besides the fact that he'd be a top-rate challenger to Carney (the GOP has yet to find any high-profile takers), he'd also be the third Bush-era U.S. Atty to consider a Cong. bid in PA this cycle.

Pat Meehan (R), who had been a GOV candidate, dropped out of that race earlier this year and opted to run for Rep. Joe Sestak's (D) open seat. Meanwhile, Mary Beth Buchanan (R) was reported to have been considering a bid against Rep. Jason Altmire (D), but that talk has died down as of late.

Those law-and-order credentials were very beneficial to GOPers in the '09 election, as ex-VA AG Bob McDonnell (R) and ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) won GOV bids in VA and NJ, respectively. But, if Marino and Buchanan do run, they'll be forced to defend the record of their offices, and Buchanan appears to have been a lightning rod during her tenure.

But all of these candidates would be formidable challengers, and with AG Tom Corbett (R) the early leading GOP GOV contender, '10 could be a very law-and-order contest up-and-down the ballot in PA.

By Dan Roem

RNC chair Michael Steele and ex-House Maj. Leader Dick Armey (R), chair of Freedom Works, promised electoral peril for Dems who voted in favor of procedural motions to advance the Senate health care bill.

"I can tell you the grassroots activists of America are intending to remember very clearly who made what votes and that when we have an opportunity (to challenge incumbents) we're going to be very active," said Armey during a Monday morning conference call held jointly with Steele.

Armey said that he is able to unite with national GOPers "when I see the Republican Party coming back to being the Republican Party I have loved in the past." Yet Armey said he is not "audacious enough" to say that he leads the conservative Tea Party movement, which has many ties to Freedom Works, asserting it has "no one" leader.

Steele slammed Dems' "cowardice" in cobbling together the $871B health care bill and accused them of "flipping the bird to the American people." He cited late-night votes taken on the bill and single-state kickbacks included designed to win over specific support of individual senators.

He singled out Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Jim Webb (D-VA), both of whom voted against several amendments to the bill before voting to advance it early Monday morning. "You don't have what it takes. You're unprincipled and the people know now," said Steele.

Steele told Dems that even if they vote against the final product prior to conference, it will not shield them from GOP attacks because they did not join filibusters to block it.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) has plenty of money for her race against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), according to reports filed with the Secretary of the Senate.

In her personal financial disclosure reports, Fiorina reveals she is worth at least $29M, and likely much more, and that she made nearly $3M in the past year alone.

The forms require only that Fiorina disclose her assets and investments in general ranges, making an accurate estimate hard to come up with. Assets are grouped from $1,001 to $15K on the low end, and amounts greater than $50M on the high end.

That means Fiorina's remaining HP stock could be valued at anywhere from $1M to $5M, according to the disclosure forms. Fiorina also lists 9 accounts with Goldman Sachs worth between $1M and $5M, leaving open the possibility that she is much wealthier than low-end estimates.

Fiorina made $1.3M for serving on the board of directors of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. last year, the reports show. A Fox News contributor, Fiorina pulled in $57K for appearing on the network.

She was also paid $1.48M for 19 speeches she gave through the Washington Speakers' Bureau, in such exotic locales as Abu Dhabi, Paris and London. Fiorina must have made at least some of that money while serving as a top advisor to, and surrogate for, Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) pres. campaign.

Fiorina is also the chair of the Techonology Policy Institute, a DC-based think tank, and the One Woman Initiative, an organization she founded to help steer a goal of $100M in grants to women in emerging economies.

Fiorina will be on the same ballot as Meg Whitman (R), the former eBay CEO who has already dropped $19M of her own money into her GOV campaign. State Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) has also put $19M into his GOV campaign. But Fiorina has never been expected to finance her own race to the same extent.

A spokesperson for the campaign told the San Francisco Chronicle in Sept. that Fiorina would spent "an undetermined amount," but that it would not be "big checks ... like Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner."

She may not have Meg Whitman money, but the NRSC, which is already strapped for cash given the volume of races in which they will compete, would sure love it if Fiorina does contribute to her own cause.

Boxer had $6.35M in the bank at the end of Sept., while DeVore had just $144K on hand. DeVore has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund, a Jim DeMint-backed PAC, but he is unlikely to end Dec. with anywhere near as much cash as Fiorina will report.

By Reid Wilson

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) says the media is obsessed with ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), and that her celebrity makes her a front-runner for the WH'12 sweepstakes.

In an interview with Newsweek's Howard Fineman, Pawlenty called his potential rival a "political rock star," and said that standing gives Palin a platform from which she could run.

"We live in a society in which being familiar, being well known, gives you a platform. She certainly has that. The Democrats have all kinds of characters who are interesting, bold, and dramatic. On our side, you guys are obsessed with Palin," Pawlenty said.

He added, handicapping the eventual field: "Is Mitt Romney running? I think he would clearly be the frontrunner, he and Palin. And there is Mike Huckabee, of course, and any number of people could emerge out of Congress."

Some have questioned whether Palin's 2 1/2 years as GOV of a state that rarely faces a budget crisis, thanks to its profits from oil revenues, is qualified to be pres. Asked whether Palin fits the bill, Pawlenty took a novel approach and compared her to another candidate whose experience, or lack thereof, became an issue.

"She is easily as qualified as Barack Obama. I would argue she's more qualified in terms of leadership, experience, management, and supervision--actually running something. She was a mayor, head of an energy commission, and governor," Pawlenty said.

By Reid Wilson

The RNC has less than $10M in the bank after spending heavily to win races in VA and NJ, according to FEC filings made over the weekend.

The GOP's top national body had just $8.75M CoH as of Nov. 30, the reports show. Last month, the party raised $6.4M and spent $8.9M. So far this year, the RNC has spent $6M more than it has brought in.

The committee started '09 with $15M in the bank, and chair Michael Steele took control when the RNC had $22.8M in the bank. The party has bragged that it spent $13M on successful efforts to win back GOV mansions in VA and NJ, and it spent smaller amounts on 2 special House elections in NY.

Meanwhile, the DNC ended Nov. with $13.2M CoH after raising $5.9M last month. Dems still have to pay off $4.9M in debt, but for the first time since Pres. Clinton was in office, the party will likely start an election year with more cash in the bank than its GOP rival.

The DCCC has much more cash in the bank than the NRCC. After accounting for debt, the DCCC has just under $13M in the bank, while the NRCC has only $2M. The DSCC, after debt, boasts a $10.2M to $7.3M advantage over the NRSC.

The RNC has now outraised the DNC for 4 out of the 11 months since Steele became chair. The reverse -- the DNC outraising the RNC -- didn't happen once during Pres. Bush's time in office.

Still, the RNC historically has been better at raising money than the DNC. The party's direct-mail program and small-dollar outreach has always given the GOP the edge. And their small-dollar donor campaign remains strong -- 2/3rds of the party's receipts last month were unitemized, meaning they came from donors who gave less than $200.

The GOP has been touting renewed excitement in their donor program for months. When town hall meetings erupted this summer, the RNC said it had seen a corresponding jump in online and small-dollar donations. That trend continued in Sept. and Oct.

So the GOP has a chance to grow its bank account, but for the moment, the party's balance sheet does not look as strong as it has in recent years.

Ben Nelson's high-profile hold out got him lots of goodies from Dem leadership which he hopes will help placate his wary electorate 3 years from now. Meanwhile, the Dem most vulnerable to losing her seat in '10 over this vote - Blanche Lincoln - cast her vote w/out basking in the limelight or boasting of added sweeteners. Was this a mistake?

--One thing this vote may have done for Lincoln was to chase away any potential primary foes. The fact that the other top priorities of liberals - like a climate bill and EFCA - aren't likely to make it up for a vote pre-primary means that Lincoln won't be forced to choose between her base and the broader (read: conservative) electorate.

--Staying in the spotlight, of course, also means that you become a lightning rod. Lincoln's a big enough target for GOPers in AR, why would she want to make herself a nat'l fundraising target too? It's notable, for example, that ex-Gov. Huckabee spent the weekend in Omaha rallying anti-health care activists against Nelson instead of back home in Little Rock.

--Meanwhile, while we know what the GOP talking points against Lincoln will be - she supports tax increases, cuts in Medicare funding etc. - we've yet to see these arguments paired up against Lincoln's focus on coverage of 200K low-income AR residents. Given that AR is one of the poorest states in the country, this argument isn't simply an academic one.

By Reid Wilson

Good Monday morning. The Hotline has a snow day today, but neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor hail shall stop Hotline OnCall from bringing you the latest political news of the day. Check back around noon for a special spotlight, too!

Here's Monday's Starting Lineup, the people who are going to matter in the news today:

SEN. HARRY REID: The Senate Maj. Leader succeeded early this morning in winning approval for his manager's amendment, finalizing health care legislation that will come out of the upper chamber. With Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) securing $100M for his home state (The "Cornhusker Kickback" to GOPers), Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) getting $300M for hers (The "Louisiana Purchase") and industry groups finding enough in the bill to be happy with, it appears the GOP will not be able to stop the bill.

That doesn't mean they won't try, and weekend maneuvers by some in Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-MI) office suggest they won't be alone. But the Senate is on track to take its final vote on health care on Christmas Eve, keeping Dems on track to return to a vote on a conference bill before Pres. Obama gives his first State of the Union address.

Once the drive to health care reform is over, House Dem leaders have told their foot soldiers they will not take up controversial legislation unless the Senate brings it up first. Reid, facing the fight of his electoral life, has never been shy about bringing up legislation that could be unpopular, but at some point he needs to get home if he's going to have any chance at keeping his job.

FUNDRAISING NUMBERS: 10 days from now, campaigns around the country will take stock of their financial position. The end of the 4th quarter will separate some wannabes from real contenders, so keep an eye on campaigns who don't leak their fundraising numbers early. Fundraising consultants will push their clients extra hard over the next week and a half, but raising money during the holidays is the toughest time to do so.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-DNC chair Howard Dean made a splash earlier this week when he urged Dem Senators to vote against the health care bill making its way through the upper chamber. But a major DC lobbying shop for which Dean works has a stake in the bill, putting Dean at odds with his own clients.

In a spate of interviews this week, Dean told a VT Public Radio station the best thing to do would be to "kill the Senate bill." He has toned down that rhetoric, writing in the Washington Post that he would vote against the current form of the bill if he were in the Senate.

Dean, a physician, is a lifelong advocate of health care reform, and even GOPers agree he is acting out of conviction. But he is also a consultant to McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, a powerhouse DC lobbying firm that represents biotech companies before Congress. Those companies are paying close attention to a key provision in the bill that will seriously impact their bottom lines.

Pharmaceutical companies invest billions of dollars developing new drugs, and data exclusivity -- the time during which they have exclusive rights to their products -- lets them make back their investment. After the data exclusivity period expires, other companies can make cheaper generic versions of drugs.

Currently, biotech firms are exempt from the Hatch-Waxman Act, the law that gives other pharmaceutical companies 7 years of exclusive rights. Health care legislation working through both chambers would put a cap on biotech exclusivity; both the House and Senate versions of the health care bill would increase that number to 12 years.

Biotech firms agreed to give up the limitless exclusivity in a deal with the late Sen. Ted Kennedy several years ago. Industry insiders say a defined period of exclusivity will promote stability and attract investors.

Liberals led by Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) want a shorter period of data exclusivity, rushing new, cheaper generic forms of revolutionary medicines to the market faster and reducing costs.

Dems appear to have the 60 votes needed to pass their version of health care reform after Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said Saturday he will back a compromise.

Nelson was opposed to public funding for abortions. He also got Dems to agree to a provision prohibiting states from covering abortions.

Nelson's statement, released about an hour ago:

"Change is never easy ... but change is what is needed in America today. I will vote for health care reform because it will deliver relief from rising health care costs to Nebraska families, workers, rural communities and employers," Senator Nelson said. "On the floor of the Senate, in town hall meetings throughout our states, and in one-on-one meetings with our constituents, we have all heard heart-wrenching stories of people who are left behind, or forced into bankruptcy, or caught in the grip of a health care system that just doesn't work as well as it should.

"While each of my colleagues may differ on how to fix the system, I know of no member who suggests the current system is satisfactory; I know of no member who doesn't think we need to change our health care system. We must act and we must act now."

"My values and principles have required me to fight hard to prevent tax dollars from being used to subsidize abortions," Senator Nelson said. "I believe we have accomplished that goal. I also fought hard to protect the right of states to regulate the kind of insurance that is offered, and to provide health insurance options in every state that do not provide coverage for abortion."

"I know these limits on abortion are hard for some people to accept, and I respect those who disagree, but I would not have voted for this bill without them."

By Reid Wilson

DE AG Beau Biden may be the only chance Dems have to hang on to a Senate seat this year, and his silence on whether he will enter the race has become deafening.

Biden, who served a year in Iraq as part of the DE National Guard's JAG Corps, returned in Oct. and said he would consider running to take over his father's old Senate seat. Sen. Ted Kaufman (D), appointed to replace VP Joe Biden, is not seeking election.

Polls have shown the younger Biden running neck and neck with Rep. Mike Castle (R), the leading GOPer in the race.

Both men have near-universal name recognition, and both have sky-high approval ratings.

But Castle is in the race -- a big recruiting coup for national GOPers. Biden is not, yet.

"He's seriously thinking about it and hasn't made a decision," said Jason Miller, a spokesperson for the AG's office. DE Dem spokesperson Katie Ellis added little to that vagueness: "What he's said is pretty much what we know at this point," she said.

"We fully hope and expect him to run," says Eric Schultz, the DSCC's communications director. He refused to discuss any recent conversations the DSCC has had with Biden or his allies.

But while the DSCC remains optimistic, there is little chance the party can keep the seat in their hands if Biden decides to wait until Castle retires. Dems would likely turn to New Castle Co. exec. Chris Coons (D) as their nominee, but anyone not named Biden running against Castle -- someone who has held office in DE in 5 consecutive decades -- would face an almost insurmountable task.

GOP strategists backing Castle have argued privately that it does make sense for the younger Biden to sit out this time around: There are 4 years left on Joe Biden's unexpired term, and Castle has strongly hinted he wouldn't seek an extra term after that. At just 40 years old, Beau Biden can wait for Castle to retire, then waltz into a seat he would own for life.

Still, the DSCC is very much hoping Biden's campaign comes sooner rather than later.

By Abby Livingston

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and
other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts WH sr adviser David Axelrod and ex-VT
Gov./ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean. The roundtable will feature MSNBC's
Joe Scarborough, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, ex-WH counsel Ed Gillespie and
PBS' Tavis Smiley.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Sen. Olympia
Snowe (R-ME) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA).

This Week hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, Senate Maj. Whip
Dick Durbin and Senate Min. Whip Jon Kyl. The roundtable will feature
Washington Post's George Will, Dem strategist Donna Brazile,
ABC's Sam Donaldson and ABC's Cokie Roberts.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). The roundtable
will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly
Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts WH sr adviser David Axelrod, NYC Mayor
Michael Bloomberg, CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), Sen. Lindsey
Graham (R-SC), Dem strategist James Carville, and GOP strategist Mary
Matalin (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

By Jamie Shufflebarger

In an interview 12/17, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) sought to portray himself as the front-runner as he insisted ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon's (R) money won't be able to buy her a Senate seat.

"Only the people can decide who they want to sit in their seats, and I think next year there will be some very clear comparisons between us," Simmons told Hotline OnCall in the NRSC's offices. "I mean, I'm ahead in the polls, I'm the lead candidate. I'm the only candidate on the GOP side who's only ever served in the Congress, who's ever been able to win a race. ... All this adds up to success."

Simmons said he was "right on target" for quarterly fundraising and insisted he would not be caught off guard if Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is not the candidate he faces next Nov.

"I think this race is about issues. Sen. Dodd supports higher taxes and higher spending. I would anticipate that [AG Richard] Blumenthal would be just the same as Sen. Dodd on that issue. And therefore, there's really no difference," said Simmons. "It's a person that would vote the same way as Dodd votes. I would argue that I would have just as [much of] an opportunity against a tax and spend Democrat as I would against Dodd."

Simmons is painting himself as the fiscally conservative alternative to Dodd and McMahon. McMahon said last week that she would have voted for last year's TARP bill.

"I would have voted against it from the get-go," said Simmons. "If your goal and objective is to stabilize the finance markets and increase liquidity ... then you don't just simply allocate huge amounts of money to major firms that they can use for any purpose they want- buying another bank, giving out huge executive bonuses. That's a very bad piece of legislation."

Despite his appearance at "Tea-Party" rallies around CT, Simmons doesn't consider himself an outsider ready to throw the government into Boston Harbor. "Look, I know how the Senate works. I don't need on-the-job training," he said. "I know how the Congress works, because I've made it work."

By Reid Wilson

The NRSC has narrowly outraised the DSCC for the second consecutive month, but Dems still have more money in the bank.

The NRSC pulled in $3.3M in Nov., leaving its total cash on hand at $7.3M. The committee is debt-free.

Meanwhile, the DSCC pulled in $3M in the same month. The committee still has $1.7M in debts owed to vendors, but they have $11.9M in the bank.

Unlike most committees in a troubled economy, the NRSC finds itself in better cash position than it was at this point last cycle. Still, the party trails their Dem counterparts in cash available today.

By Reid Wilson

The NRCC is talking a big game about targeting a series of Dem-held seats next year, but at this pace they have yet to raise the money to convince many they can actually impact some key races.

The GOP's House campaign arm banked just $2.34M in Nov., ending the month with $4.35M in the bank and $2M in debt.

Meanwhile, the DCCC raised $3.65M in Nov., finishing the month with $15.35M in the bank and a debt of $2.66M.

Forget paying staff salaries for a moment, and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has a point. He noted to reporters at a Thursday press briefing that the NRCC has just over $100K to spend per race, if the party targets about 40 seats in '10.

Compare that to the closest races of the '08 cycle: The DCCC spent $720K to the NRCC's $140K in VA-05, where Rep. Tom Perriello (D) eeked out a tiny win. The DCCC spent $800K in CA-04, where Rep. Tom McClintock (R) narrowly edged out his Dem rival. And Dems spent more than $1.2M, as compared with the NRCC's $591K, in AL-02, where Rep. Bobby Bright (D) won by a hair.

In total, the GOP spent more than $500K on independent expenditures in 24 races, and at least $100K on an additional 10. The DCCC spent more than $500K on 53 races (in fact, they spent more than $1M on 38 of those contests).

At a National Journal Power Breakfast yesterday, Dem pollster Fred Yang and GOP pollster Bill McInturff agreed that at some point, money matters. The DCCC outspent the NRCC by about a 3-1 margin in '08; the DCCC subsequently beat the NRCC in 37 of the 60 districts in which Dems spent more than the GOP (The GOP won 2 of 3 races in which they spent more than Dems, while Dems won WI-08, where party spending was essentially tied).

The NRCC has reason to be optimistic about their party's chances next year. But if the money problems continue, other GOP campaign arms should start to worry that they won't have the resources to take advantage of those opportunities.

(A video of yesterday's breakfast with Yang and McInturff, along with Hotline editor-in-chief Amy Walter and the Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook, can be found here.)

By Reid Wilson

Since Rep. Ron Paul's (R-TX) pres. campaign flamed out in '08, his loyalists have been searching for other outlets for what has the potential to become a significant political movement.

This year, Paul's ideas have gained new acceptance among establishment GOPers like Grover Norquist, ex-Rep. Dick Armey and others, and at least one Paul disciple -- his son, ophthamologist Rand Paul (R) -- is waging a serious campaign for Senate in KY (Another Paulite, stockbroker Peter Schiff, has not gained the same traction in CT).

And when '12 rolls around, the Paul forces could take another shot at the WH, in the form of ex-NM Gov. Gary Johnson (R).

On Dec. 10, Johnson lauched the OUR America Initiative, a group aimed at solving the economic crisis through Johnson's more libertarian approaches.

Johnson has insisted in several interviews he is not running for federal office -- his affiliation with the group, a 501(c)(4) organization, prohibits that -- but Johnson is clearly interested in raising his profile. He features prominently on the site, and he has embarked on a media tour to explain the new group.

Paul has been noncommital about whether he would back Johnson in a primary, or at all. But Johnson's libertarian views on everything from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to fiscal policy to drug decriminalization are the most in line with Paul's. And given his reemergence on the scene, Johnson seems interested in reigniting the excitement Paul engendered.

By Rachelle Douillard-Proulx & Abby Livingston

"World News" led with the Copenhagen climate change summit. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with health care reform.

WH sr. adviser David Axelrod made the TV rounds 12/17 p.m.

Axelrod, on whether reform is in danger: "No. ... We are where we were. We have got strong support in the Senate for health insurance reform. We have got a minority of senators who want to keep that from coming up for a vote on the Senate floor. And we're working to put together the 60 votes that we need to bring it to the floor. And I'm confident that we're going to get them ("NewsHour," PBS, 12/17).

Axelrod, on private insurers: "If they are winning, then nobody got them the message, because they continue to spend millions of dollars to lobby against this bill."

Axelrod, on some of Dean's comments: "There will be, contrary to what Governor Dean says, limits on what they can skim off for salaries and for bonuses and for shareholders. And if they pass those limits in the House bill -- and I think it will be true in the Senate bill as well -- they will have to pay rebates to the people who are their customers" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/17).

After the jump, more Axelrod, and the liberal Dems continue to come out against the Senate bill, and Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) cuts Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) on the Senate floor

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) faces a tougher re-election race than he ever has, according to a series of new surveys in recent months.

The latest, a Quinnipiac Univ. survey conducted 12/8-14, polled 1,381 RVs for a margin of error of +/- 2.6%. Specter, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) were tested.

Primary Election Matchup
Specter         53 (+9 from last, 10/1)
Sestak          30 (+5)

General Election Matchups
Specter         44 (+2)
Toomey          44 (+1)
Toomey          40 (+2)
Sestak          35 (no change)

But though he is running better against Toomey and is outpacing Sestak, is Specter really the strongest candidate Dems could field? For one thing, Specter is outperforming Sestak largely because he is much better-known.

Consider the case of Southwestern PA: Just 4% in southwest PA don't know enough about Specter, who leads Toomey 49%-37% there. Meanwhile, 88% in the region don't know enough about Sestak -- who hails from the other side of the state -- and he trails Toomey 34%-32% there.

Statewide, 7 in 10 voters haven't heard enough about Sestak to have an opinion of him, including 52% in Philadelphia, 94% in the northwest part of the state and 78% in both Allegheny Co. and the central part of the state.

Meanwhile, 38% say Specter deserves to be re-elected, while 50% say he does not.

But Specter remains in great position in the Dem primary. He is more popular than Sestak and polls above 50%. Finally, though few people say Pres. Obama's endorsement will make them more likely to vote for Specter, 23% of Dems say that, which gives Specter room to grow among his adoptive party.

Good Friday morning. Forget how one feels about the health care bill, we're starting to feel pretty bad for the Senate staffers who haven't had a day off all month. Meanwhile, a certain prominent House Dem staffer wore jeans to work yesterday.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people who matter today in politics:

CHINESE VICE FOREIGN MINISTER HE YAFEI: Immediately upon arriving in Copenhagen, Pres. Obama joined a multilateral meeting with heads of state from 18 countries, hearing from voices as diverse as the U.K., Russia, India, Brazil, Bangladesh and Ethiopia. But in what has to be a bad sign for any potential major agreement, the Chinese delegate was not President Hu Jintao or Premier Wen Jiabao, but the number 2 in the foreign office.

With all due respect to James Steinberg, imagine the diplomatic outrage that would ensue if he joined a group of heads of state at a major conference during which a major agreement was supposed to be reached. It would signal that the U.S. is less interested in, or committed to, a major agreement than other nations. With China already as one of the world's largest emitters, any hopes of a real deal rests on their aquiescence as well. He Yafei is not likely the person to signal a willingness to do so.

Obama said in a speech earlier this morning that the world's future "hangs in the balance," but a grand agreement may already be too far out of reach. Still, the conference has at least agreed upon a $100B annual fund to help poor nations cope with the consequences of climate change. And countries did convince China to agree to accept international verification of its reports of domestic economic activity and output.

There will be no rallying cry as in Kyoto, but the WH can at least say the U.S. is on board with the annual fund.

SEN. JIM DEMINT: If any GOP senator has raised his national profile this year, it is DeMint, the conservative SCan who has become the new face of the purist wing of the party. DeMint made news last week by endorsing TX Railroad Commis. Michael Williams (R) in the race to (eventually) replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), the latest in a string of conservatives DeMint has backed in competitive primaries.

By Beth Sussman

Businessman Robert Dold (R) went up with his first TV ad in his bid to replace Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL). The 30-second spot will air in primetime on cable, according to a release from the campaign.

Dold is one of several GOPers scurrying to raise funds and spread campaign messages. He is the 2nd GOPer on the air

Dold is the second GOPer to go on the air, after briefing.com founder Dick Green (R) launched his own spot earlier this month.

State Rep. Elizabeth Coulson (R), pediatrician Arie Friedman (R) and electrical engineer Paul Hamann (R) have yet to go up with their own spots.

By Reid Wilson

GOPers are sounding just a little more excited heading into the holidays, while Dems have begun actively pushing back against comparisons to the disastrous '94 election cycle.

In dueling messages released today, NRCC chair Pete Sessions gloated about the improved position his party finds itself in, while DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen stressed that his members are prepared for a difficult election season.

"The writing on the wall is clear - Congressional Democrats today are left with a mandate for defeat in 2010," Sessions wrote in a memo to GOP candidates and members. He pointed to Dem retirements, an expanded roster of candidates competing against incumbent Dems and national poll numbers that show voters opposed to several of the party's key initiatives.

"Democrats are facing a list of daunting obstacles to the big-government agenda they seek to impose on middle-class families. Thanks to a shifting political environment, they face mounting retirements, failed recruitments, an expanded playing field of seats to defend, and a divided and demoralized base. Meanwhile, a vibrant and unified Republican Party with an energized base is prepared for 2010," Sessions wrote.

Meanwhile, at a gathering with reporters the same day, Van Hollen was the first to bring up the disastrous '94 elections, when Dems lost control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.

"We think [this year] is a very different situation than in 1994," Van Hollen said, calling GOP predictions "hyperbole." "We told our members that they need to fasten their seatbelts."

It is that warning, to both younger members and veteran incumbents, as well as a pledge to stay on offense wherever the party can, that Van Hollen believes will stanch the bleeding and save Dem-held seats.

And, Van Hollen said, the 4 Dem lawmakers who have announced they will step down in '10 represent a mere fraction of the average number of retirements. Van Hollen said Dems "absolutely do not expect a large surge" in retirements, he said.

Few can argue, just a year after the '08 cycle in which GOPers took a drubbing, that the party is in better position today. Some party strategists have quietly started whispering about the prospects of taking over Congress, though the NRCC stays away from that discussion.

By Reid Wilson

NRSC chair John Cornyn says his party is poised to make big gains in Senate elections next year, but that the party will be realistic in determining how to spread around its limited financial resources.

"We're not in the business of funding landslides, nor funding lost causes," he said in an interview Wednesday. "There's only so much a committee can do, the candidates have to carry the lion's share of the load. They have to run a good political operation, they have to raise money, and what we can come in and do in those races that are within the margin, help out, and we will."

Cornyn pointed to the '08 cycle, during which GOPers were vastly outspend by Dems and when the party had trouble recruiting, putting the GOP on defense in all but LA and eventually giving Dems a 59-vote majority in the Senate.

"What they were able to do is pool their resources and carpet bomb our candidates in places like Minnesota and Oregon and elsewhere. They're not going to be able to do that this year because we've got so many good candidates running in so many states," Cornyn added. He predicted the committee would end the year having raised $40M, significantly higher than the $31.8M raised by the end of '07.

Still, GOP strategists say they will need help from the RNC to fill in fundraising gaps. Cornyn said he had not had specific discussions with RNC chair Michael Steele about the national party offering money, but that the RNC will have its priorities right when Election Day nears.

"Obviously, in 2010, the vast majority of the action is going to be in Congress -- the House races and the Senate races. There are obviously governor's races and other important races around the country. But I think as far as the RNC's concerned, it's going to be all about Congress," Cornyn said. "The national party's historically worked closely with both the Congressional committee and the Senate committee, and we trust that will continue."

With a generic ballot question favoring the GOP for the first time in several election cycles, Cornyn said he is optimistic for a good year for his party.

"The generic ballot is sort of the question that counts," he said. "So there's a lot of hope there. Having said that, I think what people are reacting to what they see coming out of Washington and demonstrating their fear, and they realize that unchecked power is a bad thing, so they've created an opportunity for us that we haven't had to get our message out and talk about our alternative solutions."

Still, a slight lead in the generic ballot does not mean the GOP's brand, so tarnished over the past decade, has been healed. Cornyn acknowledged that there is more work to do to rebuild his party's image.

"I'm not of the opinion that people have all the sudden fallen in love with Republicans, but I do think we have an opportunity, and they're listening," Cornyn said.

By Erin McPike

OH Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) has vowed to keep her SEN campaign alive until the May primary and even made it to DC on Wednesday for a fundraiser with an Afghanistan veterans group.

But, Brunner conceded in an interview, she will continue reporting below-average fundraising numbers at the end of this quarter. "It will look like I won't at the end of this quarter," she said when asked whether she will be able to run a credible paid media campaign.

Brunner replaced her finance team earlier this year in an effort to beef up fundraising, but she has since decided to "roll with the punches." She said she realized that with all of the institutional support going to LG Lee Fisher (D), she's been forced to run a grassroots campaign, and she thinks it's going well.

"I started my law practice out of the corner of my bedroom," she said. It eventually grew to 32 people. "When you start a small business, you have to run things as lean and mean as you can. I think donors appreciate when you don't waste their money."

The DSCC has all but written her off, however, and the establishment has turned to Fisher. In fact, Brunner said when she spoke with DSCC Chair Bob Menendez in Sept., he first told her that he "didn't want to see a Democratic candidate at the end of the primary with zero dollars," and he followed up that his organization would go into the state to work against a candidate perceived as "being negative in the primary or not raising enough money."

Brunner said she responded: "If you do that, the women of Ohio will never forgive you." Menendez, she said, retorted: "I know you're not scared of me, and I'm not scared of you."

(For their part, the DSCC points out they elected 4 new women in the last two cycles that they actively recruited and with NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, MA AG Martha Coakley and MO Sec/State Robin Carnahan, they've got another 3 this cycle.)

Fisher is also winning the endorsements battle. He has the support of Gov. Ted Strickland (D), as well as several Dem members of the Ohio congressional delegation, including Reps. Tim Ryan, Zack Space and Charlie Wilson.

The Buckeye State, Brunner noted, is expected to lose 2 congressional districts after the '10 Census, and she said each party can expect to shed one. For that reason, Brunner said that when she met with Space, he "admitted his endorsement of Fisher had to do with the governor's potential role in determining which districts would be eliminated after the census."

Update: Space's office denies the charge. "With all due respect to Secretary of State Brunner, Rep. Space never said that at all. What [Space] told her was that while he has the utmost respect for her, he believed that ... Fisher's efforts to bring about new economic development and jobs is precisely what Ohio needs at this moment when the national economy has devastated Ohio's workers and industries," campaign spokesman Brent Parrish said in a statement emailed to Hotline OnCall.

"World News" led with an interview with Pres. Obama. "Evening News" led with health care. "Nightly News" led with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama sat down for an interview with ABC's Gibson on "World News" 12/16.

Obama, on whether he feels "individual senators" are holding him "hostage": "I think that what we have right now in the Senate is a situation where the opposition party has made a political decision that we are going to say no to everything. We're going to not be at the table, we're going to just not get involved."

Obama: "I spend a lot of time talking to individual senators. ... And it's not just on health care. Health care is the most prominent example. But, you know, one of the ... Each of them have very strong opinions. ... Many of them, I think, sometimes feel that they've got a better idea than we do. We try to incorporate as many as possible."

More Obama: "The problem is, each one of them may have ideas that are completely contrary to what the other senator wants. And so there is a balancing act. ... I think it's hard. And there's got to be a sense sometimes that we're willing to rise above our particular interests, our particular ideas, in order to get things done. Right now, that culture has, I think, broken down over the last several years. And one of my jobs, over the next three years, is to try to see if we can revive that. But that's tougher than I would have liked."

After the jump, more Obama, Sen. Mary Landrieu and ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean play "Hardball," and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) has tough words for Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

By Reid Wilson

Good Thursday morning, and happy birthday to The Simpsons, which debuted 20 years ago when they adopted Santa's Little Helper. If you need a refresher on that episode, we'll wait while you go watch it.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people who are going to make headlines today:

PRES. OBAMA: It's crunch time for the WH as Obama heads off to Copenhagen today, the second time he's been to Denmark while in office. Of course, the first time didn't work out so well, as his home town got booted in the first round of Olympic balloting.

This time, climate talks are on the agenda, and world leaders are parachuting in for the summit's final days. Obama had planned to show up at the summit early, but his decision to wait until the end seemed to signal the WH had big hopes for a grand agreement.

Sec/State Hillary Clinton said today the U.S. will join a $100B yearly fund to help developing countries overcome global warming challenges, but other breakthroughs have been hard to come by. Much like the health care debate, the WH likely won't have another chance to seriously move this debate on the world stage.

EX-DNC CHAIR HOWARD DEAN: Yes, he's made the list 2 days in a row, but Dean is not done with his crusade to kill what he sees as an insufficient effort at health care reform. Dean has been doing a media tour over the last 24 hours, including several appearances on MSNBC and an op-ed in the Washington Post.

The WH has fired back at their erstwhile ally, publicly wondering where he gets the notion that the bill is good for insurance companies. WH press sec. Robert Gibbs suggested Dean didn't fully understand the bill, while comms dir. Dan Pfeiffer penned a rebuttal on the WH blog.

Ex-Rep. Jim Traficant (D-OH), he of the outrageous hair and fiery floor speeches, will hold his first press conference after 7 years in federal prison, and he may just be aiming for a political comeback.

Traficant was jailed for bribery and racketeering charges in '02 and released in Sept. of this year. A spokesman said Traficant will discuss Congress, though only among other issues.

He is unlikely to announce a major political comeback just yet, however, because he hasn't decided which district he should run in if he does try to return to Congress. According to the Youngstown Vindicator, Traficant and his advisors are considering bids for Rep. Tim Ryan's (D) 17th district, which he used to represent, or Rep. Charlie Wilson's (D) adjacent 6th district.

If he succeeds in winning another tenure in Congress, just beam us up, to paraphrase his legendary capstone to every floor speech.

By Reid Wilson

Assemb. Chuck DeVore may be a GOPer, but he and the NRSC do not get along. Both camps are hurling invective back and forth as they battle over whether one side invited the other to meet -- and whether the NRSC is showing too much favoritism to another candidate.

DeVore was the first candidate in the race to face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), but DC GOPers quickly coalesced behind ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R). Now, DeVore says despite the NRSC's claim not to be playing favorites in the race, they won't even sit down and meet with him.

As proof, DeVore's camp produced 2 letters the candidate sent to Cornyn's official office, one sent May 17 and another Oct. 31. DeVore advisor Josh Trevino emailed a top NRSC aide in Aug., then followed up with 2 meeting requests faxed last week.

All they got, according to the DeVore camp: An offer to meet with NRSC exec. dir. Rob Jesmer after Cornyn was unavailable for a sit-down. DeVore would not take the meeting.

"As someone who is already an elected official who represents half a million people who is running for the Senate, I don't know about your read on protocol, but my read on protocol is that I meet with elected officials," DeVore said in an interview Wednesday. "I'm not going to meet with a staffer, especially given what they've been saying about me for the last year. What would it accomplish? I mean, they're already in the tank for Fiorina."

By Kasie Hunt

Liberal Dems are stepping up an angry call to kill the Senate's health reform overhaul after leaders removed a government-run public option from the bill -- and the move is antagonizing Dems on Capitol Hill who are already busy fighting off GOP attacks.

"If Democrats remove the choice of a public option, they can't force Americans to buy health insurance," Democracy for America chairman Jim Dean wrote in an email to supporters Wednesday morning. "The bill doesn't actually 'cover' 30 million more Americans -- instead it makes them criminals if they don't buy insurance from the same companies that got us into this mess."

Dean is referring to the Senate's bill requirement that all Americans purchase health insurance or face up to a $750 penalty.

Ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC chair Howard Dean, a a key health care voice in the party's liberal base, called recent Senate negotiations the "collapse" of health reform in a Tuesday interview with Vermont Public Radio.

The email from Dean's group has Hill aides angry because Dean sounds, well, a lot like a GOPer.

"The over-the-top rhetoric and language that Jim Dean uses in this email is unfortunate because it's the same sort of stuff we are seeing from Republicans," a Democratic leadership aide said. "He is literally using some of the language that some of the people on the far right are using to explain the mandate."

The insurance mandate is the foundation for all of the popular reforms that prohibit health insurance companies from rejecting people who are sick or elderly--and Dean sounds more extreme than even Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) did in June.

"There isn't anything wrong with it, except some people look at it as an infringement upon individual freedom," Grassley said in a June 14 appearance on Fox News Sunday. "But when it comes to states requiring it for automobile insurance, the principle then ought to lie the same way for health insurance, because everybody has some health insurance costs, and if you aren't insured, there's no free lunch. Somebody else is paying for it."

Hill Dems and the WH face a widely acknowledged electoral imperative to pass health care, and that calculus evident in ongoing negotiations with Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) and the likely removal of a public option from the healthcare bill.

"The time has come to get this done, regardless of concerns from the far ends of the political spectrum," a senior Dem Senate aide said.

A failure would resonate in 2010. "The people who are going to pay for that are going to be House Democrats. Not the president, probably, and not the Senate. If Howard Dean wants to kill healthcare reform, he also is jeopardizing our majority in the House," the leadership aide said.

By Steven Shepard

The GOP leads on the midterm generic cong. ballot in a new George Washington Univ. Battleground poll -- the first time the party has led in that survey since the beginning of '02.

The GOP claims a 42%-40% lead among LVs, according to the poll released today, with 18% undecided. In the most recent poll, in July, Dems led, 43%-40%.

The GOP had claimed either 40% or 41% in every GWU poll taken during a midterm cycle since Jan. '02. The 18% undecided is the largest number in those surveys since the '02 poll.

Indies provide GOPers with their edge in the poll. Asked if they preferred one party control both the exec. and legislative branches, or if they preferred a divided gov't, indies chose a divided gov't, 50%-24%. On the generic ballot, those indies break for the GOP, 40%-19%.

Overall, voters have a very low opinion of Congress. Just 24% of LVs (and 15% of indies) approve of the job Congress is doing this year, while 68% disapprove.

The poll was conducted 12/6-9 in a joint effort by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). They surveyed 1,000 LVs, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Conservative radio host Laura Ingraham showered praise on atty Ovide Lamontagne (R) on her show Weds, giving the conservative more ammunition as he seeks to define himself as the right-wing alternative in the race.

Lamontagne "is the only true conservative in a very important race," Ingraham said, introducing her guest this morning. "I am very impressed so far in what I'm seeing about your views. We're interested in true conservatism."

Ingraham blasted GOP senators, naming Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC chair John Cornyn, for hosting a fundraiser for ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), the leading contender in the GOP field.

"New Hampshire folks are fiercely independent, they don't like being dictated to by Washington, and I think they're going to end up doing what's right for conservatism in the Republican Party because they've seen what's happened in Washington, DC," she said.

Meanwhile, Lamontagne has taken shots at Ayotte over a host of issues, including her refusal to say who she voted for in several GOV elections. Ayotte was initially appointed to her post by a GOP GOV, but Gov. John Lynch (D) subsequently reappointed her.

"It's one thing to say you're conservative, it's another to say you're acting on conservativism," Lamontagne said amidst a long critique of Ayotte. "That is what I think people are looking for now, Laura, they are looking for authentic conservatives. People they can count on, and when asked, you know, what senator she would be most like, she wouldn't say take, you know, she wouldn't anything. I would be more like a Jim DeMint."

Ayotte is in DC today at a fundraiser hosted by telecom PACs, the New Hampshire Union Leader reported late this morning.

Hotline editor-in-chief Amy Walter takes a look at what Dems need to do to placate their moderate incumbents:

On Monday, Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) became the 4th Dem from a vulnerable district to retire in the last 3 weeks, bringing to 7 the number of open seats that Dems will struggle to hold in '10.

To be sure, there's no evidence yet of an outright mutiny of moderates. Even so, the problem here is greater than the sum of the districts, and it adds up to huge headaches for the DCCC.

In Gordon's case, a tough re-election in '10 and redistricting in '12 were likely the biggest determining factors for his retirement. Gordon's vote for the climate bill was certain to haunt him on the trail, and private polling revealed very shaky re-election prospects. Republicans currently control the Tennessee Legislature and are likely to win the governor's race.

There's little doubt that they'll target Gordon's middle Tennessee district next year and make it all but impossible for him to win it in '12. Plus, at 60 and with an 8-year-old daughter at home, Gordon has material needs to consider. In a column last week, former DCCC Chair Martin Frost warned of the difficulty in keeping House members in their 50s or 60s from retiring since many of them want to "put some hay in the barn" while they still can.

Dems were able to keep retirements -- especially among members in swing districts -- to almost 0 from '04 to '08. In '04, there were only 2 retirements among Democrats sitting in GOP-leaning districts (Ken Lucas and Jim Turner). There were none in '06 and '08.

Winning the majority was what persuaded many incumbents to stick around. Yet, just a year into this whole majority thing, 4 senior Dems already want out. Doesn't that suggest that it's not so fun to be a moderate when your party runs both the WH and Congress?

Continue reading Walter's "On The Trail" here.

By Reid Wilson

Dems and GOPers both picked up their top recruits in the race to replace retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) on 12/15, setting up one of the most evenly-matched races in the country.

State Rep. Jaime Herrera (R) made her bid official Tuesday, about a week after Baird said he would not run. Within hours of Baird's announcement, Herrera was on the phone to local GOPers informing them of her decision.

In her announcement, Herrera cited government spending as her impetus for running, blaming both parties for huge amounts of debt.

Meanwhile, state Sen. Craig Pridemore (D) also said he would run, citing unemployment and his career as a military officer in his announcement. Dems in the state have argued that Pridemore, who edged out a GOP incumbent for his state seat in '04, would be the strongest candidate the party could field.

Herrera and Pridemore are likely to get the bulk of the attention from DC-based GOP and Dem strategists, but they are not alone in their own primaries. Accountant and veteran David Hedrick, ex-Veterans Affairs dep. asst. Sec. David Castillo and Washougal City Councilman Jon Russell are all seeking the GOP nod. Meanwhile, state Rep. Deb Wallace (D), who holds a seat in the district next to Pridemore's, quickly announced she too would run for Baird's seat.

The district stretches from the OR border to the Olympia area, and both nominees are likely to come from southern Clark Co., home of Vancouver. Pridemore, Wallace, Herrera, Russell and Hedrick are all from either Vancouver or Camas, the neighboring town; only Castillo is from the Olympia area.

The district is perhaps the fastest-growing in WA, thanks to Clark Co. Pres. Obama won 6 of the 7 counties in the district in '08, taking 56% of the vote district-wide. But if GOPers want to make a big impact on the Dem majority, they will need to win seats like Baird's. Expect the race, almost regardless of the nominees, to come down to the wire as a pure tossup.

by Rachelle Douillard-Proulx & Abby Livingston

"World News" led with health care reform. "Evening News" led with health care reform. "Nightly News" led with a recall of window blinds.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) sat down for an interview with CNN's Bash 12/15 p.m.

Lieberman, on whether he's "one of the most despised people among many" Dems: "I hope no. ... I don't enjoy the personal vendetta. I certainly don't enjoy people attacking my wife, which is outrageous. But I've been at this a long time and in the end if you try to please everybody you will do nothing."

Lieberman, on whether "animus" fuels his actions: "Well that's just poppy-cock. I mean, this is all about what I think health care reform should be. The President and I have a very good, mutually respectful relationship. If I had any sense of vendetta against the Democratic Party I wouldn't be in the Democratic caucus."

Lieberman, on whether he'll run for CT SEN as a GOPer: "I don't know what I'll run as. I like being an Independent. So that's definitely a possibility. But I'd say all options are open. ... It's unlikely I'd run as a Republican but I wouldn't foreclose any possibility" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/15).

Lieberman, on ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC chair Howard Dean not supporting the bill: "I would turn back the question that people have asked me to Governor Dean and others who may be raising this possibility of voting health care reform, people on the left side of the party. Would you really, because you couldn't get everything you want, stop this extraordinary reform?" ("AC 360," CNN, 12/15).

After the jump, more Lieberman, reactions to Lieberman, and ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC chair Howard Dean takes a stand.

By Reid Wilson

Good Wednesday morning. Anybody getting tickets to DC's EagleBank Bowl matchup between Temple and UCLA? We can't wait to boo Rick Neuheisel.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, identifying the people who will matter today in DC:

MN GOV. TIM PAWLENTY: The potential pres. candidate makes his next visit to an early state today, raising money for local GOP candidates. His speech will focus on spending, contrasting his record with the federal budget, an advisor tells OnCall. In an appearance in IA a month ago, Pawlenty focused on his opposition to health care legislation working its way through Congress.

Pawlenty remains largely an unknown to early state voters, and though he appears to be the only obvious rival to ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), he has a long way to go before he can be considered the GOP frontrunner. But with ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee and several other candidates looking less likely to run, Pawlenty could find himself as Romney's chief foe sooner rather than later.

We've heard complaints about Pawlenty's speaking style and his inability to fire up a crowd, and a high-profile shout-out from ex-House Maj. Leader Dick Armey (R-TX) was based more on Pawlenty's room to grow than any kind of base he might already have. It's early yet, and Pawlenty still has to visit SC before his early state tour takes round 2. A day of headlines in the Granite State will do him some good.

EX-DNC CHAIR HOWARD DEAN: Bypassed twice for the top health post in the Obama admin., Dean has become a chief proponent of the most aggressive form of health care reform. He said in an interview in his home state that the best option would be to kill the bill and start over in the House, using reconciliation to move through the Senate.

Liberals have blamed Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Joe Lieberman and others for killing the public option, but Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) spoke for a growing number of lefties when he blamed Pres. Obama.

By Reid Wilson

We've always been skeptical of ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth's (R) intentions of challenging Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), and a new poll shows it would be an uphill climb if he did.

The Tarrance Group (R) poll, conducted 12/8-10 for the Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, surveyed 600 GOP LVs for a margin of error of +/- 4%. McCain and Hayworth were tested.

Primary Election Matchup

McCain          57
Hayworth        36

The group that sponsored the poll has ties to McCain. It was created in the '08 cycle and aimed at bolstering McCain's chances in the pres. race.

The poll is the 2nd in recent months to test the hypothetical matchup between the longtime senator and the conservative firebrand who, since losing his seat in '06, hosts a radio show in Phoenix. An earlier IVR poll showed a much narrower margin.

But Hayworth parlayed that earlier survey into a fundraising appeal, appearing with popular Maricopa Co. sheriff Joe Arpaio at an annual holiday party. Donations went to Hayworth's legal defense fund to pay off debts he incurred when he was briefly tied up in the Abramoff scandal.

By Reid Wilson and Erin McPike

Stung by a string of departures, House Dem leaders are racing to head off further retirement announcements.

At least 2 members who have been targets of an orchestrated GOP effort to goad them into retiring have told DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen they will run again over the past day. Spokespeople for Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and Tim Holden (D-PA) say the incumbents will seek another term.

Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA), another incumbent the NRCC has been pressuring to step aside, refused to confirm whether he will run again. He would only say when he makes a decision, "no one is going to be surprised."

Sources in the VA delegation expect Boucher to make another run. McCain won his southwestern VA district with 59% of the vote and Boucher has been a top NRCC target for months.

Meanwhile, other potentially vulnerable incumbents have also assured the DCCC they are staying put. Reps. Ben Chandler (D-KY), Jim Matheson (D-UT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) all told Dem leaders they would seek additional terms. A spokesperson for Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-TN) later said he will run for re-election as well.

Those seats would have been hard to hold had Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won Chandler's district with 55%, took Matheson's with 58%, Davis' with 64% and Edwards' with a whopping 67% of the vote.

All 7 members have been subjects of retirement rumors in recent weeks.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will make his first visit to NH tomorrow in his increasingly high-profile tour of early pres. primary states.

Pawlenty will attend a fundraiser for NH state Senate GOPers in Concord, where he will focus on spending and massive federal deficits, according to an insider. Pawlenty has previously brought up his budget record, which wins praise from some in the fiscal conservative community.

The two-term GOV will also introduce himself to NH voters, spotlighting his upbringing in the St. Paul suburbs.

It will be Pawlenty's 2nd trip to an early primary state. Earlier this year, he headlined a fundraiser for IA GOPers at the state fairgrounds in Des Moines. Meanwhile, he has given a series of high-profile speeches in DC and CA to a series of conservative audiences.

By Reid Wilson

The NH state rep. who first wrote legislation setting the state's pres. primary apart from other similar elections is seeking new language that he says will keep the Granite State at the head of the pack.

State Rep. Jim Splaine (D), the author of a 1975 bill that required the Sec/State to hold NH's primary 7 days before any other similar contest, will bring his bill to the floor in Jan. The legislation adds language bolstering the "tradition" of the state's first primary, Splaine said.

In recent years, as the RNC and the DNC have toyed with the idea of tinkering with the primary calendar, NH lawmakers have not had to worry about their status. Sec/State Bill Gardner, who has held the post since '76, has zealously guarded the state's position as keeper of the first primary.

But when Gardner steps down, Splaine's measure is aimed at making clear to the next Sec/State that his or her job will be to guard that legacy. NH law gives the Sec/State sole authority to set an election, which Splaine's initial legislation says can only happen once every other contest has been scheduled.

"Whoever the next Secretary of State might be in 20 years needs to know that there is a desire in the legislature that the precedent that Bill has set in the last 30 years be followed," Splaine said. "By codifying the word 'tradition' in the law, it makes that quite clear."

By Reid Wilson

Being endorsed by the NRSC is becoming akin to the mark of the beast, and conservative activists have found new reason to cry foul at Sen. John Cornyn's (R-TX) committee.

The NRSC has set up joint fundraising accounts with several candidates, generating attacks from others within the GOP who say DC should not be dictating who makes it through tough primaries. The committees, they say, show clear favoritism for one candidate over another.

In NH, an advisor to atty Ovide Lamontagne (R) blasted the NRSC for setting up a joint fundraising committee with ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R). In CA, Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) is getting help from conservative blog RedState over a similar account the NRSC set up with ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R). And another joint account that will partially benefit KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) will anger backers of ophthamologist Rand Paul (R).

The NRSC has also set up joint committees with Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R), Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), ex-Rep./ex-OMB dir. Rob Portman (R-OH) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA). All but Toomey have rivals in the GOP primary, but all except Lowden are front-runners by wide margins. Lowden has yet to lock down a healthy lead since entering her race.

These are the latest flare ups in an ongoing war between grassroots activists and the GOP's professional class. The NRSC has only explicitly endorsed 1 candidate -- FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) -- but other candidates have fled from any notion of DC-based backing.

Establishing a joint fundraising committee does not legally bind the candidate and the NRSC in any way. The NRSC can, and has offered to, set up a joint committee with multiple candidates in the same race. In fact, in some ways, setting up a joint committee is better for the NRSC than for the candidate -- if an individual has maxed out to a candidate, their check to the joint committee will be directed to the NRSC, thanks to personal contribution limits.

The NRSC is not bound by any of the agreements to spend the money in certain states, either. The party has also set up joint accounts with Sens. Richard Burr (R-NC), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and David Vitter (R-LA). Murkowski and Coburn are unlikely to face serious opposition next year, while Grassley and Vitter are running far ahead of their rivals.

By Erin McPike

The DCCC is fighting a tough defensive battle in the midterms to project its majority, but it still has a little money left over for some offense. And chair Chris Van Hollen sees financial regulatory reform as a political winner.

The DCCC today is launching 60-second radio ads in the districts of 5 GOPers who voted for TARP last year but against financial regulatory reform on Friday.

Targeted GOPers include Reps. Dan Lungren (R-CA), Mary Bono Mack (R-CA), Lee Terry (R-NE), Charlie Dent (R-PA) and Joe Wilson (R-SC).

A DCCC spokesman would not disclose the size of the ad buy. But Dems are accusing GOPers of hypocrisy, according to a script provided to Hotline OnCall:

"October 2008, the last months of the Bush presidency. The big banks and financial institutions almost collapsed, putting our entire economy at risk. Remember? We all know we should never let this happen again. That's why what our Congressman Lee Terry did last week is so disturbing," the ad's narrator says. 

"Congressman Terry voted to let Wall Street continue the same risky practices that crippled retirement accounts and left taxpayers on the hook for $700 billion dollars," the ads continue. "And he voted to allow the big banks to pay high rolling executives unchecked compensation and bonuses. Maybe the $234,000 dollars that financial special interests have given to Congressman Terry mattered more to him than protecting taxpayers and consumers. Doesn't that just make you mad? Call Lee Terry, tell him to stop standing up for the big banks and to start standing up for us."

By Reid Wilson

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) would lose an election to ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), according to 2 new polls. But with Giuliani unlikely to make a bid, Gillibrand's fiercest competition may come from a Dem primary.

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted 12/7-13, surveyed 1,692 RVs for a margin of error of +/- 2.4%. A subsample of 719 Dems has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Gillibrand, Giuliani and NYC Comptroller William Thompson (D) were tested.

Dem Primary Matchup

Thompson        41
Gillibrand      28

General Election Matchups

Giuliani        50
Gillibrand      40

Giuliani        52
Thompson        36

Meanwhile, a Siena Research Institute poll, conducted 12/6-9 among 665 RVs had a margin of error of +/- 3.8%. Gillibrand, Giuliani, Thompson, ex-Gov. George Pataki, NY-NJ Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R) and ex-Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN) were tested.

Dem Primary Matchup

Gillibrand      32
Thompson        23
Ford             7

General Election Matchups

Giuliani        49 (no change from last, 11/16)
Gillibrand      43 (-1)

Gillibrand      46 (+1)
Pataki          43 (-1)

Gillibrand      52
Blakeman        22

Giuliani        56
Thompson        34
Pataki          49
Thompson        36
Thompson        40
Blakeman        23

Thompson, who narrowly lost the NYC mayor's race last month, is unknown by 58% of NYers, while Gillibrand still has to make an impression on 47% of her state. Meanwhile, both Giuliani and Pataki have favorable ratings over 50%, according to the Siena poll.

Giuliani and Pataki remain unlikely candidates, we're told. Still, Gillibrand has a ways to go before she has introduced herself to the whole state, thereby innoculating herself from what could be a difficult bid for the remainder of Sec/State Hillary Clinton's term.

by Rachelle Douillard-Proulx & Abby Livingston

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with Pres. Obama's meeting with Wall Street bankers.

MSNBC's Matthews: "Joe, the bummah" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/14).

The Nation's Nichols: "Joe Lieberman talking about bringing Republicans in is a bit comic. The fact of the matter is, he doesn't control any more Republicans than he does Democrats. What he's really saying is that he wants to be the central figure in this process" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/15).

FNC's Carlson: "They don't like him because he's for the war. They despise him because he campaigned on behalf of John McCain, which you can understand. If Susan Collins campaigned on behalf of Barack Obama, she would be pretty unpopular in the Republican caucus" ("On the Record," FNC, 12/14).

Newsweek's Fineman: "Don't forget, Obama, the president, supported Lieberman in the fight in the party in Connecticut. ... It's the grass roots left of the Democratic party that ... enjoyed his torture. And this is pay-back to them. The president is caught in the middle here. That's my take on it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/14).

After the jump, WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett discusses Obama's meeting with Wall Street bankers, and pundits weigh in on the meeting

By Reid Wilson

Good Tuesday morning. Later today, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner takes off for its first flight. But of course they planned it for Everett, WA, where -- to the surprise of almost no one -- it's raining.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, the people who matter at the moment in DC:

MARKOS MOULITSAS: The DailyKos founder sent the DC press corps into spasms last night with 2 tweets signaling his dissatisfaction with health care legislation. "Insurance companies win. Time to kill this monstrosity coming out of the Senate," he wrote. Minutes later: "Bye bye, [Senate Maj. Leader Harry] Reid. You weren't a bad MINORITY leader."

Health care could prove the issue where Kos, and his blogging brethren, make a major break from Senate Dems. There have been moments before when blogger/activists show some distance and voice displeasure with the party, but never over something so major as health care reform -- and never over something teetering so precariously on the edge of collapse.

The question moving forward: Will liberal bloggers do to the Dem Party what conservative bloggers have done to the GOP? When a party gets a healthy majority, some elements within begin agitating for a more ideologically pure caucus. Just as not-Rep. Dede Scozzafava how that worked out for GOPers. Will Dems succumb to the same impulse, following the argument that a few lost seats is a small price to pay for a more ideologically cohesive majority?

EX-MAJ LEADER DICK ARMEY: Speaking of conservative anger, Armey is the closest thing Tea Partiers have to a national leader (Though fans of Sen. Jim DeMint might beg to differ). After bestowing his blessings on MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) in an interview with CBS News, Armey will appear today at the National Press Club.

(UPDATE: The National Press Club's website now says Armey's lunch talk is canceled.)

The Tea Party movement finds itself, once again, at a crossroads: Leaders on a local level have told reporters they don't see themselves supporting any incumbents, Dem or GOP. But what about Armey, the former 2nd-ranking GOPer in the House? In short, is this a movement willing to be led, or is it doing just fine leading itself?

By Reid Wilson

It may have been the motto of his friend James Carville, but Dem strategist Paul Begala thinks an economic message can help Dems next year -- but only if they make the argument correctly.

In a brief interview with Hotline OnCall, the former Bill Clinton strategist said Dems can do well if they contrast their approaches with those of the GOP. Begala took that message to press secretaries for vulnerable Dem incumbents last week.

"It is an empirical fact, a demonstrable historical fact, that Democratic economic policies have been more effective than Republican economic policies," Begala said. "I basically said, 'Draw the contrast: The last time we ran the place, we created the strongest economy in the history of humanity."

Begala's advice came as some Dems are worrying that GOPers have scored political points by insisting that a jobs bill should take precedence over health care legislation. Some have blamed the WH for forcing the House to take up controversial legislation in the middle of a recession, while others point fingers at incumbents who they say are putting too much stock in GOP attacks.

"For the first time in 50 years, we had a Republican House, a Republican Senate, a Republican White House, and they enacted Republican economic policies, and it destroyed the country," Begala said, demonstrating the contrast he would use. "It would be crazy to simply sit there and play defense. The Republicans created this economic mess."

GOPers have cast Dems as excessive spenders, especially given the party's support for cap and trade legislation, health care reform and a massive stimulus package.

"It's tough to see how trying to take credit for Pres. Clinton's record in the 1990s will be an effective strategy for out-of-touch Washington Democrats in 2010 -- especially when they're backing job-killing policies like the cap and trade national energy tax, a government takeover of health care, and card check," said Michael Steel, a spokesperson for House Min. Leader John Boehner.

Many Dems have determined that the way their party mitigates losses next year is by offering voters a choice between their party and the GOP. A referendum solely on the Dem agenda, they say, is a path toward losing seats.

"There is one party that knows how to manage the economy and set good policy," Begala said. "Draw the contrast, draw the contrast, draw the contrast."

'06 indie candidate/humorist Kinky Friedman (D) dropped his TX GOV bid today, switching to the race for state Ag. Commis. after a high-profile Dem announced last week he would run for Gov.

Friedman is the second TX GOV candidate in as many weeks to have moved to the Ag. Commis. race, following Hank Gilbert's (D) withdrawal. Both switches come in the wake of Houston Mayor Bill White's (D) entry into the race.

White dropped his Senate bid once it became clear that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) had no intention of resigning her seat anytime soon.

Friedman didn't endorse either White or businessman/hair product creator Farouk Shami (D), although he met with White and others before making a final decision regarding which office to pursue.

Gilbert quickly endorsed Shami, and he had harsh words for White, whom he claimed pledged not to switch races this cycle. Gilbert, again Friedman's rival, made the same accusations.

"Here we have a candidate who is running for office -- any office -- solely because he wants to promote his books and personal appearances. Kinky is no Democrat. If he was, he never would have stayed in the 2006 race running as an independent and denied our party's nominee a real chance at the governor's office," Gilbert said.

The turmoil on the Dem side of the TX GOV contest is something of a departure from what has been the main focus of the race so far, the vitriolic primary between Hutchison and incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R).

By Steven Shepard

House Dems got a sliver of good news amid an ongoing parade of retirements Monday when a new Gallup poll shows their party receiving a boost in the generic ballot.

Dems now lead GOPers 48%-45%, in the poll. That represents a rebound from a 48-44% deficit in the poll conducted 11/5-8.

Dems are performing better among independent voters, sparking the slight advantage. In Nov., indies were breaking for the GOP by a stark 52%-30% margin. But in the current survey, the GOP's lead among indies has shrunk to 44%-40%.

The results suggest the GOP's post-Election Day bounce "was not sustained," according to Gallup's analysts. The margin is similar to surveys conducted in July and Oct.

But Gallup analysts also note the poll is among RVs, and the GOP typically enjoys a turnout advantage in midterm elections. Indeed, the current political environment seems to be characterized by far greater enthusiasm among conservative voters.

A weekly tracking poll conducted last week by Research 2000 for the liberal website DailyKos showed that 39% of GOPers said they would definitely vote in '10, compared to 26% of Dems; turnout similar to those numbers could foretell big gains for the GOP.

The Gallup poll, conducted 12/11-13, surveyed 898 RVs, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

By Reid Wilson

The RNC will launch a round of national radio ads touting the party's efforts to stand in the way of health care reform, chair Michael Steele announced Monday.

The 6-figure ad buy, hitting the airwaves Wednesday, features Steele himself arguing the GOP is blocking new entitlement programs that will hike costs.

"The Democrats are accusing us Republicans of trying to delay and stonewall their government takeover of health care. You know what? They're finally right," Steele says in the ad. "Democrats know America doesn't want this health care takeover, but they're arrogantly trying to jam it down our throats. This is our last chance to stop them."

At a press conference unveiling the ad, Steele unapologetically stuck to the message he first unveiled in a strategy memo sent out late last week.

"What we've been met with legislatively is a lot of whining and complaining and noise about Republicans obstructing and blocking health care reform," Steele said. "We wanted to stop and and slow down and prevent a takeover of our health care system, that this experiment is not the way to do it. And the bottom line still remains, that's exactly what we want to do. This is not in the best interest of the American people."

Meanwhile, Steele said, even though Dems have control over the legislative and executive branches, his rivals have been focusing on blaming the GOP for their shortcomings.

"They have the lever of power in their hands, and yet at every turn they look at others to blame. They look at others to call out, to embarrass, instead of addressing in an honest way what the American people want to address," he said.

As part of the campaign, RNC staffers will be sent to ND, NE, VA, AR, LA and CT -- home states of several Dems who are key swing votes in the health care debate. The RNC will hold tele-town hall meetings, including 2 scheduled for Monday, as well as an internet campaign aimed at drumming up support for the GOP's position.

In total, a GOP spokesperson said the party has spent $2M on its crusade against health care legislation since Aug.

Steele has landed in hot water for suggesting that some GOP members of Congress might come under attack if they vote with Dems on certain issues, but he said Monday he is confident that the party will remain united on health care.

"I feel really confident right now, given where certainly in the House and the Senate the Republican leadership has really laid out, I think, a well-founded case to stay together on this," he said. "I feel really good, as I know the leadership does, that Republicans are unified on this."

By Reid Wilson

A trickle of Dem retirements, a wave of bad polling numbers and a torrent of negative news stories about the political climate all have Dems worried that the party needs a serious turnaround before the '10 elections -- and that time may be running out.

Now, Dem strategists are urging their members of Congress to be more decisive, and pointing a finger at the WH for forcing an ambitious agenda for which Congress will now have to answer.

"You can't tell people how to run their campaigns, but in order for this not to be 1994, the White House is going to have to understand this is a referendum on Barack Obama," said a senior Dem consultant. Dems face "a political environment that Obama created by pushing an agenda this fast."

Meanwhile, Congressional leaders have called on the WH to be more active in defending that agenda. DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall last month that Obama "has a huge stake" in the '10 elections.

The environment has led to the string of post-Thanksgiving retirements. On Monday, Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) became the 4th member of Congress to announce he will step down since Thanksgiving, ending a 13-term career.

Gordon voted in favor of cap and trade, a significant part of Obama's first-term agenda, and it was sure to cost him on the campaign trail. Reps. Brian Baird (D-WA) and Dennis Moore (D-KS), 2 more retirees, both voted for the bill too, while Rep. John Tanner (D-TN) voted against it.

Dem leaders will meet tonight to discuss the troubling trend of retiring members.

By Reid Wilson

Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) will retire after 13 terms, he announced today in a press release, becoming the 4th Dem in a potentially competitive district to step down in the past 4 weeks.

First elected in 1984, Gordon had a solid hold on his seat, winning his past 5 re-election bids with more than 60% of the vote; his office said he has never lost any of the 15 counties he represents. He is stepping down, he said, after re-evaluating his future.

"When I was elected, I was the youngest member of the Tennessee congressional delegation; now, I'm one of the oldest. In fact, I have members of my staff who weren't even born when I took office. That tells me it's time for a new chapter," Gordon said in a statement.

But regardless of the reason, Gordon leaves open a seat Dems could have trouble defending. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won the district in '08 by a 62%-37% margin, and national GOPers instantly characterized it as a lean-GOP seat that is likely to eventually fall into their hands.

Gordon joins Reps. John Tanner (D-TN), Dennis Moore (D-KS) and Brian Baird (D-WA), all of whom have announced they will step down since Thanksgiving. GOPers are thrilled with their prospects in all 3 seats.

Likely contenders for the GOP nod in his Murfreesboro-based district include Rutherform Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik (R), who has been running for months, and state Sen. Jim Tracy (R). Tracy was going to jump in the race after the new year, but a source confirms to Hotline OnCall that he will make known his intentions to run for the seat sooner, now that Gordon is out.

UPDATED: A Dem source points out early names floated as possible Gordon replacements, including state Reps. Mike McDonald and Hank Fincher, Wilson Co. Property Assessor Jack Pratt, Wilson Co. Sheriff Terry Ashe, ex-state Sen. Andy Womack and Kent Syler, a top Gordon aide.

CA Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) will pump $15M of his own money into his Gov campaign, according to reports out of the Golden State this morning.

The contribution will boost his personal investment in the race to $19M, about the same amount rival and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) has given her own campaign.

Poizner has had trouble getting traction in the race. Though he is a statewide elected official, he clocked in at just 10%, trailing Whitman's 35% and ex-Rep. Tom Campbell's (R) 27% in a recent LA Times/USC poll. Just 18% of CAans have an opinion of him, that survey showed.

The winner of the GOP primary will face ex-Gov./current AG Jerry Brown (D), who has the Dem primary to himself.

By Reid Wilson

Good Monday morning. We've averaged one House Dem retirement per week since Thanksgiving. Whose turn is it to make news this week?

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, bringing you the people who will make news today, before they make it:

SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN: Are Dems beginning to feel pessimistic on health care reform? They may not admit it, but GOPers are certainly feeling more confident they can slow down, if not stop, the measure being debated in the Senate. Last week's grand compromise looked like a step that could have united the Dem caucus, but that looks less likely now.

On Sunday, Lieberman and Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) both said they can't vote for the bill in its current form, thanks to a provision that would allow adults over 55 to buy in to Medicare. Lieberman has reportedly told Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid he cannot support the current bill, while Nelson characterized the deal as even worse than a public option, and he still has qualms with language dealing with abortion.

One smart GOPer brought up a good point to us this weekend: The bill needs 60 votes to pass, but it will not be stalled at 59. That is, once a Lieberman domino or a Nelson domino falls, others will jump ship too. Having a health care debate is bad for Dems electorally, and the longer it takes to move off the bill, the less time Dems will have to fix an increasing political problem.

REP. MARK KIRK: The centrist Kirk, a yes vote for TARP, cap and trade and a few other Dem-backed initiatives, has been moving to the right in the IL SEN primary, thanks to a challenge from real estate broker Patrick Hughes. Kirk leads by a wide margin -- a new poll conducted for the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV shows him leading the GOP primary with 41%, while 46% say they are undecided.

But Hughes' candidacy represents an emerging, and very real, challenge for GOPers: In an era of tea partiers, the centrist Kirk has to move to the right to win a primary. Those moves have already cost Kirk, as Planned Parenthood and environmental groups have repudiated him for recent statements. Conservative challengers to more centrist favorites in NH, FL, OH, CO and other states could make those favorites move to the right.

Houston Controller Annise Parker (D) will become the first openly-gay mayor of a major U.S. city after winning election Saturday night.

Parker defeated ex-city atty Gene Locke (D) by a 54%-46% margin in the race to succeed term-limited Mayor Bill White (D).

The election focused on Parker's stewardship of the city budget, the Houston Chronicle writes, while she painted her opponent as a lawyer for unpopular city agencies. Social conservatives tried to make the race a referendum on Parker's sexual orientation, though to little effect.

Until Parker won election, Portland, OR, has been the largest city to elect an openly gay mayor. Mayor Sam Adams was elected in May '08 by a wide margin.

William Shatner has had his fun offering dramatic readings from ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) memoirs, and on Friday, Palin got her revenge. Check out Palin's surprise appearance on Conan O'Brien's show, where she plucks some of her favorite passages from Shatner's memoir:

The book tour may be winding down, but Palin's not done by any means.

By Reid Wilson

At first blush, a series of new TV ads running in AR are nothing more than an early slam at state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), an indication of the priority outside groups will put on the race for Sen. Blanche Lincoln's seat.

But the ads offer a different message in a more subtle way -- labor unions that funded the early TV spots are willing to get involved early on Lincoln's behalf, a notice to any Dem who would like to run against her next year.

The ads attack Baker, the GOP establishment's favorite candidate in the race, seeking to tarnish his image as a fiscal conservative. The ad urges viewers to call Baker and chastize him for spending millions on state earmarks.

The group that funded the ads, Citizens for Strength and Security, invested heavily in the early buys. Baker's campaign has said the group purchased $134K worth of TV time in Little Rock and $83K in Ft. Smith, just south of Fayetteville.

But, it has been suggested, the ads aren't solely a shot at Baker. Instead, they could also be intended as a message to AR LG Bill Halter (D), who is considering challenging Lincoln in a Dem primary.

Citizens for Strength and Security is largely funded by SEIU, according to reports filed with the IRS. The group had received $500K in the first 6 months of the year. SEIU has been a big Lincoln backer over the years, and labor strategists would love to avoid what could be an ugly primary that puts a Senate seat at even more risk.

(The CWA also donated $300K to Citizens for Strength and Security, but those contributions were refunded.)

Halter remains a somewhat unlikely candidate, given the amount of cash Lincoln has in the bank and her popularity among her Dem base.

But he is still actively exploring the idea. Halter was in DC earlier this week to attend events for a national LGs' association, but he also stopped by a dinner at the home of influential blogger Jane Hamsher where some labor officials and liberal bloggers urged him to make the race.

By Tim Sahd

Here's a twist out of Hawaii: Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) announced today that he'll resign his seat so he can continue his GOV bid full-time.

Abercrombie hasn't announced when he'll step aside, but there will be a special election to fill his seat. Ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) have already begun '10 bids to replace Abercrombie; Case immediately sent out a release announcing his candidacy for the special.

Dems have an advantage here, but GOPers had vowed to contest the open seat. While it gave Barack Obama a whopping 70% in '08, Pres. Bush gave Dems a run for their money there in '04, and took 47%.

While it's not a top pickup opportunity, GOPers are excited about Honolulu Councilor Charles Djou's (R) bid. He's outbanked the field, collecting nearly $250K for the race, and has been an energetic campaigner.

UPDATED: The Hawaii rules for a special election would certainly aid Djou's cause, especially if Case and Hanabusa insist on staying in the race. That's because everyone (regardless of party) runs in a one-shot race. There is no runoff. So Djou could eek out a victory if Case and Hanabusa split the Dem vote.

But to their benefit, both Case and Hanabusa have strong name ID from previous runs, even though those runs have been in HI-02, not this Honolulu-based CD.

Case left his HI-02 seat in '06 to challenge Sen. Daniel Akaka (D), but lost. Case's primary challenge of the popular Akaka didn't sit too well with some Dems, and Hanabusa's attempting to use that split to her advantage. She's also garnered the early support of EMILY's List for her bid. Expect a very spirited race for whenever officials call a special.

by Abby Livingston

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer, ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), ex-MA Gov Mitt Romney (R) and CNBC's Jim Cramer.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).

This Week hosts NEC dir. Larry Summers and House Min. Whip Eric Cantor. The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, ex-WH counsel Ed Gillespie, Huffington Post's Arianna Huffington, Center for American Progress pres./Obama WH transition co-chair/ex-Clinton WH CoS John Podesta and American Urban Radio Networks' April Ryan.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, Liz Cheney and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts NEC dir. Larry Summers, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) Ex-Educ. Sec. Bill Bennett, Dem strategist Donna Brazile and personal finance expert Suze Orman (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

In this week's National Journal, Congressional and Political Insiders reveal which lawmakers and strategists they really appreciate -- or don't.

James A. Barnes and Richard E. Cohen, who run the Insiders Poll, sat down earlier this week to talk about the GOP results that surprised them. Among the notable winners: new kid on the block Bob McDonnell took the title for most impressive political figure and veteran Newt Gingrich was voted the party's most creative thinker. In the video below, Barnes and Cohen talk about what this says about the state of the GOP.

The Insiders Poll also shows that two women who have very little in common actually share a similar perception within their party. Sarah Palin and Nancy Pelosi were recognized for being impressive figures -- but they both face the challenge of being viewed as tiresome pols. In the video below, Barnes and Cohen talk about the pair's mixed ratings.

By Reid Wilson

NRSC chair John Cornyn says the debate over health care legislation has helped alter the political terrain in his party's favor.

In a new memo to be sent to GOP senators today, Cornyn cites polling data around the country and specifically in NV, OH, DE and CO to demonstrate the GOP's newfound optimism.

"As the calendar turns to 2010, we find ourselves running in a markedly improved political environment from the difficult 2006 and 2008 election cycles," Cornyn wrote. "The Democrats' massive health care bill, coupled with their support for out-of-control government spending, are quickly developing into potent political issues for us, and we will work tirelessly to ensure that voters are fully informed of their Democrat Senators' and would-be Senators' support of a critical issue opposed by the majority of their constituents."

Despite legislative steps Dems have taken that would seem to give them momentum, Cornyn said GOPers "are on the verge of preventing" the bill from passing.

"We have the American people on our side. If we continue to stand together in opposition to the Democrats' bill, we can then start the process of enacting the meaningful and sensible health care reform our country needs," Cornyn concluded.

The memo comes on the heels of a missive penned by RNC chair Michael Steele that agreed with Dems who have accused GOPers of obstruction.

"I urge everyone to spend every bit of capital and energy you have to stop this health care reform. The Democrats have accused us of trying to delay, stall, slow down, and stop this bill. They are right. We do want to delay, stall, slow down, and ultimately stop them from experimenting on our nation's health care," Steele wrote in the memo on Thursday. "And guess what, so do a majority of Americans."

By Erin McPike

House Dems see financial regulatory reform as a golden opportunity to bash GOPers who voted for TARP, then denounced bank bailouts under pressure from angry conservatives this year.

Dem leadership sources say the DCCC hopes to prepare a round of ads targeting House GOPers who vote against regulatory reform. Dems charge that GOPers who've railed against the "too big to fail" mantra after TARP are hypocritical for not voting to fix the problem.

In total, 91 House GOPers voted for TARP back in Oct. '08, including House Min. Leader John Boehner, GOP Whip Eric Cantor and now-NRCC chair Pete Sessions.

House GOPers are expected to stand in unity against Rep. Barney Frank's (D-MA) bill. Passage is expected later today, and if the overhaul becomes law, it would mark the largest change to the financial system since the Great Depression.

Reps. Charlie Dent (R-PA) and Pat Tiberi (R-OH) could find themselves in the DCCC's crosshairs; both voted for TARP, and both are on Dems' radar as top potential takeovers. Senate Dems could hit Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), running for Pres. Obama's old seat, as he too voted for the legislation.

On Tuesday, Frank launched the Main Street Democratic Fund "to help Democrats who vote in favor of tough financial regulation." On Thursday, DCCC Chair Jon Vogel issued a fundraising solicitation advising, "Our ad team wants to produce hard-hitting new spots taking on Republicans who are voting with the lobbyists trying to kill reform." House Dem strategists huddled this morning on messaging for this issue and how to go on the offensive against Republicans.

By Reid Wilson

We're sure Sens. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) are used to being mistaken for one another. But it looks pretty bad when someone running to join them in the Dem caucus does the mistaking.

In an email to supporters sent last night, OH Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) voiced her support for health care legislation free of anti-abortion language similar to the House bill.

"On Tuesday night the U.S. Senate turned aside a dire threat to the rights of women to reproductive health services when Sen. Bill Nelson's amendment to the Senate health care reform bill was defeated by a 54-45 vote," Brunner writes to supporters.

The only trouble is, the amendment was Ben Nelson's effort to include Stupak-like language in the Senate bill. On a vote to table the measure, effectively killing it, Ben Nelson voted no, in order to keep his bill alive, while Bill Nelson voted yes.

The campaign immediately sent out a correction.

Not everything has been going smoothly for Brunner lately. Whether it is liberal bloggers accusing Brunner of changing her position on a troop increase in Afghanistan, or the campaign catching flack for sending 2 aides to work in her official office, the last month has been particularly difficult for the Sec/State.

Establishment Dems have rallied around LG Lee Fisher (D), who has raised considerably more money than Brunner has. The party is not so quietly urging Brunner to leave the race, though she has signaled she will stay in for the long run.

By Reid Wilson

SC First Lady Jenny Sanford will file for divorce, she said in a statement obtained by the AP.

"This came after many unsuccessful efforts at reconciliation, yet I am still dedicated to keeping the process that lies ahead peaceful for our family," the First Lady said in the statement.

The divorce filing comes months after Gov. Mark Sanford (R) admitted to an affair with a woman in Argentina he called his "soul mate."

Mrs. Sanford had said at the time she was willing to work on her marriage. But she and the couple's four children have spent the bulk of the past six months at the family estate on Sullivan's Island, while her husband has been in Columbia.

The affair rocked the SC political establishment and gave those who had long stood on Sanford's side the final reason they needed to abandon the two-term Gov. Most GOP operatives sided with Jenny Sanford over her husband, and many were quick to point out that it was Jenny Sanford's work that got him elected to Congress, and then to the Gov's mansion, in the first place.

Gov. Sanford has just over a year left in office, and though early outrage from the state legislature seemed to point to his imminent impeachment, he survived a key vote earlier this week from a state House panel, making it unlikely he will be removed from office.

by Abby Livingston

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's Nobel Peace Prize speech. "Evening News" led with Obama's Nobel Peace Prize speech. and aired an excerpt of "60 Minutes"' interview with Obama. "Nightly News" led with Obama's Nobel Peace Prize speech.

Neocons (mostly) raved over Obama's Nobel Peace Prize speech 12/10 p.m.

Syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer: "I thought it was the best speech he has ever given on foreign soil. Now, I know that sounds slightly ironic and cynical because it is a low bar, but he did have a defense in the first third of the speech, which was the good part, a defense, robust defense of war in general as a necessity, of the Afghan war, and also America's role, as he put it, in underwriting the security of the world for 60 years, something he hadn't emphasized in the past and that he did."

More Krauthammer: "And it went against the grain of that audience of his, which was overdressed, over-titled, underemployed, one-world Scandinavian lefties. And they only applauded when in the second half of the speech he gave his usual shtick about Guantanamo, torture, and Geneva conventions, he got the cheap applause" ("Special Report," FNC, 12/10).

Ex-UN Ambassador John Bolton: "I thought it was a pretty bad speech. I thought it was turgid, repetitive. I thought it was analytically weak, sort of at a high school level. It's like he didn't have any lead in his pencil left after his speeches at the U.N. and the speech on Afghanistan. So all in all, a pretty surprisingly disappointing performance" ("On the Record," FNC, 12/10).

After the jump, more reaction to the speech, part of Obama's "60 Minutes" interview and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) discusses Dem divisions.

By Reid Wilson and Quinn McCord

Good Friday morning. Happy birthday to Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), who turns 66 today, and to rapper Mos Def, who is 36. What we wouldn't give for a joint birthday party.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make news today:

HOUSE GOPERS: As the Senate struggles through health care reform, the House has already taken up the next big fight, voting late into the night Thursday on a regulatory reform package that would put new limits on financial firms. Final passage is expected today.

Dems are spinning the new regs as "Wall Street reform," avoiding the term "regulatory." Meanwhile, GOPers are calling it more bailouts for financial institutions at another big cost to taxpayers -- something Dems say won't happen, given that taxpayer money won't be used for a new $150B fund set aside to liquidate insolvent companies.

It promises to be yet another bill in which Dems lose some of their more conservative members while GOPers stand united in opposition. The RNC is embracing opposition to health care reform, but we wonder whether standing against regulatory reform while the corpse of Lehman Brothers is still fresh and anger at executive bonuses at AIG and elsewhere still resonates is the best idea for the GOP.

SEN. CHRIS DODD: The CT Dem's polling numbers are some of the worst in the country, and an increasing number of prognosticators are suggesting there is simply no way he can win re-election. Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy has switched the race to her "Lean Republican" category.

New numbers "jibe with our view that Dodd is about as unelectable as unindicted incumbents get," and Dem leaders have reached a "similar conclusion." AG Richard Blumenthal (D) won't enter the race until Dodd leaves, so the question becomes how overtly Dem leaders need to be in pushing Dodd out the door.

By Reid Wilson

With 3 Dems announcing their retirements in the first weeks of Dec., some party strategists are starting to worry that a wave of retirements could threaten their hold on the House.

"It's time for Democrats to be concerned," said ex-Rep. Martin Frost (D-TX), a former DCCC chair. "You've only had 3 of these retirements now, but this tends to be like the flu, it tends to be contagious. Once your contemporaries start announcing their retirements, you start rethinking your decision."

On Wednesday, Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) became the latest member to announce he will not run for re-election. Since Thanksgiving, Reps. Dennis Moore (D-KS) and John Tanner (D-TN) have also said they will step aside. And rumors of new impending retirements crop up every day.

With filing deadlines approaching in several states, members will take the next month to talk with their families and assess their future.

"The key months are January, February and March, because that's the lead up to the filing deadlines," Frost said. "They need to be very vigilant in the next couple of months."

The decisions members will make are likely to have DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen sweating, though he has what he calls an "early warning system" to convince members to stick around longer.

In '98, when Dems uncharacteristically picked up seats in a midterm election, Frost instituted a "buddy system," in which one member was assigned to keep watch over a colleague rumored to be considering retirement. This year, Van Hollen's effort is said to include House Dem leaders, committee chairs, regional and ideological allies which Dems hope will give them more influence over a wavering incumbent.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) seems to have changed his position on stimulus funding, now saying he would have accepted federal money headed to his state.

But that's not what he said earlier this year. In an interview with the Herald/Times in Aug., Rubio suggested -- but did not outright say -- that he would not have taken stimulus money offered by the federal government.

"I would have spent the money we have. You balance the budget," Rubio says when asked what he would have done with the money had he been governor. "I would have only spent the money I have."

But in more recent interviews, Rubio changes his tune: "Ultimately, I would have accepted those portions of the money that would not have put Florida in a worse position off in the future than it is right now."

Rubio plans to make support for the stimulus bill a key part of his campaign against Gov. Charlie Crist (R) for Sen. George LeMieux's (R) seat. Crist appeared at a rally with Pres. Obama in Ft. Myers in support of the package. Rubio says he would not have appeared at the rally, but Crist's campaign pounced on the apparent flip-flop, widely distributing YouTube clips of Rubio's then-and-now change of heart.

"It is incredible that Marco Rubio has based his entire campaign on attacking Charlie Crist for doing exactly what, he now admits, he would have done himself," said Andrea Saul, Crist's spokesperson, in a statement. "Time and again, voters in Florida will begin to see the real Marco Rubio."

"The real Marco Rubio" is a phrase Crist's campaign has embraced when discussing their opponent. Expect to hear it much more in advance of this summer's primary.

Update: Rubio's reply, sent to Hotline OnCall in an email:

"Charlie Crist campaigned with President Obama in support of the $787 billion stimulus spending bill and pressured Florida's congressional delegation to vote for it. And if he had been in the U.S. Senate, he would have voted for it. Unlike Charlie Crist, I do not believe we can deficit spend our way into prosperity. I would have stood up to the Obama-Crist stimulus package and offered a clear alternative in the form of permanent tax cuts."

"Advocating for the stimulus plan and accepting those dollars are not the same. The stimulus was a disaster and I would have fought it in every way possible. But once President Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Charlie Crist mandated their mountain of debt, I have said I would have handled the stimulus money the same way real conservative governors like Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin and Haley Barbour have."

"The difference is clear. Charlie Crist actively advocated for this fiscally irresponsible stimulus policy. At a time when most other prominent Republican governors were fighting Obama's stimulus and offering conservative alternatives, Charlie Crist actually championed the Obama package and helped him pass it. Charlie Crist may not understand what he did wrong or he may just want to forget it, but I'm confident that Florida Republicans won't."

By Rachelle Douillard-Proulx

Libertarian pundit John Stossel will launch "Stossel," his very own show, tonight on Fox Business Network.

It is a first for the broadcast journalism veteran, who, until recently, cohosted "20/20" on ABC. Hosting his own show wasn't something he had always dreamed about; it was for another reason he decided to give it a shot.

"[It was] more in response to current events, to my getting to a point in life where I thought I had learned enough that I had more to say about current events," Stossel said.

The particular topic that struck such a chord with him? "The health care bill."

Stossel, who prefers to focus more on issues than high-profile guests, will cover myriad topics over the course of the first three episodes, including government regulation and capitalism. And while he hasn't scored an interview just yet, Stossel would love to have former VP Al Gore on for a "lively debate" on climate change.

Another major focus of one of the first shows will be "Atlas Shrugged," the libertarian conservative treatise written by Ayn Rand in '57. Stossel first attempted to read the 1,300+ page tome in high school, but found he wasn't able to finish it.

Said Stossel: "I think the 20-page Galt speech got me. But then I re-read it ten years ago, and that's when I was stunned. I found myself saying out loud, 'How could she know this was going to happen forty years later, or fifty? How could she precisely predict today?"

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) apparently doesn't like anything he's heard on Medicare lately. The GOP leader has some mixed messages coming from his recent press releases, as one Friend of OnCall pointed out.

"Cutting Medicare is not what Americans want," trumpets a press release from 12/6 that rails against cuts GOPers have been pointing to in health care legislation being debated on the Senate floor.

But, the very next day, McConnell didn't like reports that Dems were planning to expand Medicare to those younger than 65:

"Expanding Medicare 'a plan for financial ruin,'" reads a press release from 12/7.

The releases themselves are not contradictory. McConnell keeps hammering Dems for voting down an amendment offered by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) that would have restored funding to Medicare.

"If your goal was to come up with a plan for financial ruin, you couldn't come up with a better idea than cutting a program by $500 billion and simultaneously expanding the number of people it is required to cover," McConnell said in the 12/7 statement.

But maybe the headline writers need to come up with a better way to put that, as it sure makes McConnell's website look funny.

A screen shot of McConnell's website, with the two press releases in the lower right corner:

Update: We're told our friends over at Huffington Post already caught the dueling headlines.

This week's National Journal polls Congressional and political insiders on their favorite members of Congress, the member they'd like most to shut up, the brightest thinkers and strategists in their parties and much more.

And Hotline OnCall is giving everyone a sneak preview. Some fascinating, and some very expected, results below. A full list of our insiders is at the bottom.

Which member has the brightest future?

Congressional Insiders

Dems                        GOPers
D. Wasserman Schultz  16%   Kevin McCarthy     25%
Mark Warner           13    Paul Ryan          21
Political Insiders
Dems                        GOPers
Mark Warner           13%   John Thune         32%
D. Wasserman Schultz   8    Eric Cantor        20

Which voice in your party would you most like to mute?

Congressional Insiders

Dems                        GOPers
Joe Lieberman         22%   No one            16%
Dennis Kucinich       19    Michele Bachmann  11
Sheila Jackson Lee    13    Glenn Beck        11
No one                13    Steve King        11
Bart Stupak            6    Sarah Palin       11
                            Tom Price         11
Political Insiders
Dems                        GOPers
Joe Lieberman         23%   Sarah Palin       28%
Nancy Pelosi          15    Michael Steele    12

UPDATED: Check out the magazine's introduction to the full Insider's Poll, and the list of most admired senators.

Below the jump: Who's the best strategist, the most creative thinker and the most impressive political figure of the year.

Farmer and gospel singer Steve Fincher (R) is the latest candidate to make it to stage 2 of the NRCC's Young Guns program, demonstrating the GOP's faith that he can fill a seat being vacated by Rep. John Tanner (D-TN).

Fincher joins 9 other candidates on the list of Young Gun "Contenders." He surprised GOP strategists by raising more than $300K in his first several weeks in the race, and he typifies a non-politician politician identity that some GOPers want to see more of in an anti-incumbent cycle.

Others on the Contender list include ex-Reps. Steve Pearce (R-NM) and Steve Chabot (R-OH), Montgomery, AL, city councilwoman Martha Roby, state Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) and Manchester, NH Mayor Frank Guinta.

Every cycle, staffers at party committees tasked with electing House and Senate candidates pick favorites, and Fincher is clearly one of the NRCC's favorites this year. The NRCC has spent months bashing Tanner, and the committee has already started hitting St. Sen. Roy Herron, the leading Dem in the field.

By Reid Wilson

RNC chair Michael Steele said in a memo released Thursday that GOPers should do everything they can to stop health care, arguing that position is in line with public opinion.

"I urge everyone to spend every bit of capital and energy you have to stop this health care reform. The Democrats have accused us of trying to delay, stall, slow down, and stop this bill. They are right. We do want to delay, stall, slow down, and ultimately stop them from experimenting on our nation's health care," Steele wrote in the memo. "And guess what, so do a majority of Americans."

Steele highlights polling results that show certain samples opposed to aspects of health care reform legislation, and other results that show Americans want Congress to focus on jobs and the economy before health care legislation.

"Looking at the mood of the American electorate, the strategy in the health care debate is clear: be with the people and listen to the people. We don't have to manufacture anything," Steele wrote. "All we need to do is add our voice and amplify the chorus of Americans urging President Obama and Congressional Democrats to slow down their health care experiment and focus on jobs and growing the economy."

Dems have labeled the GOP the "Party of No" for months for their opposition to the stimulus package, health care, cap and trade and other issues largely decided along party lines, and Steele seems to embrace that label. But, he insists in the memo, it is not for political reasons, even though some in the party think the health care package will be a political winner for the GOP.

"I have heard Republican political operatives say that it will be good for our Party next November if the Democrats pass this bill. They note that the bill is unpopular with Independents, suburban voters, and senior citizens. They say that the voters will run them out of office for it," he writes.

"That may be, but we cannot take that approach. Some things are more important than politics. This is one of those times. Please do everything you can to stop this bill ... before it is too late."

By Jamie Shufflebarger

VP Joe Biden will be the star attraction at a $500/plate fundraiser for Sen. Chris Dodd (D) on 12/11.

It is the second time the VP has appeared with his friend Dodd. Biden first appeared with Dodd 10/5, and Pres. Obama headlined a fundraiser for Dodd on 10/23. Dodd will need all the help (and money) he can get, considering that he has struggled in every poll released this year.

Before the 12/11 event, Biden and Dodd will also appear together to tout the stimulus at a East Hartford Fire Dept., which has received $3M in recovery funds.

"We're grateful that Vice President Biden is taking time out of his schedule to join Chris Dodd at this event," said CT Dem Party spokesperson Colleen Flanagan in an interview 12/9. "It's a testament to how important and effective the White House believes Chris Dodd is in the Senate that both Vice President Biden and President Obama have joined him on the campaign trail."

Dodd's numbers have not improved with all the personal attention, though the WH is clearly concerned about his chances. Meanwhile, he has fought back against rumors of his imminent retirement, while GOP strategists believe Dodd is the best candidate for them.

Biden has emerged as the WH's point man for '10 House and Senate fundraising, glad-handing donors around the country in an attempt to limit Dem losses.

Updated: Biden's first appearance with Dodd was not at a fundraiser. The 10/5 appearance was an event focused on the stimulus package. Biden later appeared at a fundraiser for Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT).

by Rachelle Douillard-Proulx

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" all led with the cross-country blizzard.

Health care was widely discussed on the cable nets last night.

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) appeared on "AC 360" 12/9 p.m.

Nelson, on whether, without the abortion amendment, he can support the bill as it "stands right now": "I certainly can't support it. My position hasn't changed. But what I am hoping we will do is that the principle of the House version of the language can be achieved by other language." ... The question is, is there another way to word the language that will be successful? So many people are trying to explore that. I don't know whether that's possible, but my position hasn't changed."

CNN's Cooper: "As you well know, liberal Democrats are upset. They say that health care reform without a public option really isn't health care reform. How do you respond?"

Nelson: "I don't agree with that at all. As a matter of fact, what we've tried to do is make sure that we extend the private markets wherever possible and allow the states to have a great deal of latitude to be able to deal with this. Relaxing some of the regulations that would permit companies to cross state lines and states to enter into interstate compacts to facilitate the delivery of the insurance product across state lines. People have been asking for it; this would do it."

After the jump, more from Graham and other pols on health care.

By Reid Wilson

Good Thursday morning. If anyone tries to tell us who won Top Chef last night, we promise to stick our fingers in our ears. That's what On Demand is for.

Here is Thursday's Starting Lineup, the people who are going to make tomorrow's headlines today:

PRES. OBAMA: As he accepts his Nobel Peace Prize this morning in Oslo, Obama faces mounting criticism from the left over his decision to add an additional 30K troops to the war effort in Afghanistan. Senate Armed Services Cmte chair Carl Levin (D-MI) told the Washington Post he wants a surge in Afghan troops, not U.S. troops.

In truth, Obama was not going to win friends with any decision he made. Reduce the number of troops and stoke GOP anger. Increase the number of troops and irritate base Dems who want out. But we're reminded that it's been a long time since the WH got a major win, and it could begin to have an impact on the admin's wider agenda.

Obama is likely to get a health care bill sometime in Jan., but after that victory, GOPers will use regulatory reform, cap and trade and other legislation stalled in both chambers to score political points. One frustrated House Dem aide has repeatedly said to us that the party needs to act like it's in charge and pass legislation without GOPers if they are to keep losses low next year. That strategy would certainly help move Obama's agenda more than the current shuttle negotiations between moderates and liberals.

ST. REP. JAMIE HERRERA: Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) announced he would not seek another term next year around 2:30 p.m. on the West Coast. Herrera, a 2nd-term GOPer from the southern part of Baird's 3rd District, was telling people she was in the race before the close of business.

Dems will have plenty of good candidates in the race. State Rep. Deb Wallace (D) is set to join the race today, while others will take their time. State Sen. Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Jim Moeller are thinking about the contest, and other names are being tossed around. Expect both parties to focus on recruiting candidates from the Vancouver part of the district, rather than the northern Olympia suburbs.

GOPers appear to have a top-tier challenger in the open seat race to replace retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA), and Dems promise they'll deliver a solid challenger as well. "Before Congressman Baird made his announcement, he and DCCC Chairman Van Hollen discussed the field of potential candidates and we are confident that we will have a strong Democrat who will win this seat in November," DCCC spokesperson Ryan Rudominer said tonight.

In addition to state Sen. Craig Pridemore (D) and state Rep. Brendan Williams (D), who we mentioned earlier, sources say Clark Co. Commis. Steve Stuart (D) -- who is from the base of the CD -- is also a potential candidate, along with state Rep. Deb Wallace (D).

By Tim Sahd and Reid Wilson

Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) announced his retirement tonight, becoming the third Dem in a vulnerable seat to announce his departure in the last few weeks. "The time has now come to pursue other options, other ways of serving. Hence, I am announcing today that I do not intend to seek reelection to Congress in 2010," Baird wrote in a statement. "This is not an easy decision to be sure, but I believe it is the right decision at the right time."

The CD, with a Cook PVI of EVEN, is a very fertile open seat for GOPers to attack. And they instantly found a top-tier candidate in state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R), who told GOPers she'd be a candidate almost immediately after Baird's announcement. The former aide to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) has been groomed for the seat, and WA Dems privately concede she'll be a tough candidate.

Dem sources, meanwhile, believe state Sen. Craig Pridemore (D) and state Rep. Brendan Williams (D) are potential candidates to replace Baird. Pridemore is from Vancouver, and Williams is from northern Thurston Co.

Baird never had any difficulty winning re-election in this southwest WA CD; indeed, the 55% he took in winning his first term in '98 represented his toughest contest.

But it is a swing CD, as Pres. Bush carried it in '04 with 50%, and Pres. Obama won it four years later with 53%.

As a moderate, Baird angered voters across the spectrum. His vote against the health care bill led the local AFSCME co-chair to warn, "With a no vote, you have placed yourself on the wrong side of history, and on the wrong side against your constituents."

And this summer, ret. Marine David Hedrick (R) gained overnight fame among the Tea Party crowd after he confronted Baird for at first refusing to hold townhalls. Baird told the Olympian: "It's a lynch-mob mentality out there. There is an ugliness to it."

Baird is the third Dem in as many weeks to call it quits. Reps. Dennis Moore (R-KS) and John Tanner (R-TN) are the other two Dems, and all three sit in very marginal CDs. Dems explained Moore and Tanner's retirements away as individual cases, and not the beginning of a coming wave of retirements.

But Baird's decision, which was unexpected, is sure to crank up expectations for further retirements. The NRCC was quick to jump on the news. "With this being the third retirement by a swing-district Democrat in as many weeks, it is clear that members of the Majority are feeling the ground shaking beneath them," NRCC chair Pete Sessions (R-TX) wrote in a statement.

So far, nine Dems have announced they're leaving the House at the end of the term, and GOPers are targeting at least six of those seats. On the other side, 12 GOPers have announced their retirements, but only three are considered vulnerable to takeover.

SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R) survived a key vote Wednesday as members of a legislative committee decided against throwing him out of office.

In a 6-1 vote, a special impeachment panel voted down a resolution to impeach, The State newspaper in Columbia reported. The same panel voted 7-0 to censure Sanford for a range of infractions involving travel on state airplanes, tickets purchased for official travel and improper use of campaign funds.

The charges barely touched Sanford's secret trip, earlier this year, to Argentina, where he met with a woman with whom he had a long affair. Sanford apologized and admitted to the affair during a tearful news conference once he returned.

The state House Judiciary Cmte will still vote on articles of impeachment, though it is unlikely to pass without the support of the subcommittee.

By Reid Wilson

Could GOPers be on the verge of putting another top Dem on the defensive?

We're hearing a new round of buzz over ND Gov. John Hoeven (R), a very popular 3-term incumbent who, at just 52 years old, may not be finished with politics quite yet. He has turned down a Senate bid before, but this time he may take the bait and challenge Sen. Byron Dorgan (D).

Imagine that race: The popular Dorgan, who has won 9 statewide races since '80, against Hoeven, who has won 3 races of his own, the last two with more than 70% of the vote. Most polls show Dorgan among the most well-liked senators in the country, while the same polls rate Hoeven as the most popular governor around.

It would be like the '04 contest between Sen. Tom Daschle (D) and Rep. John Thune (R), except with stronger candidates: Dorgan is less polarizing than Daschle, as Dem leader, turned out to be, while Hoeven is better-liked than Thune was.

Insiders tell Hotline OnCall that Hoeven's candidacy remains a long-shot, but that a final decision is not expected until the New Year. A Hoeven spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment on this story.

Senate GOPers haven't had a perfect year. Some states, like NV and NH, feature crowded primaries, while conservative candidates are running to the right of preferred challengers in IL, FL, CA, KY and OH. And the party hasn't recruited the best candidates it could have in AR, NV or NY, while Dems in WA, OR and WI are virtually unchallenged. Still, Dems are playing defense more than they have for years.

And with Hoeven a long shot, the party could let a potentially vulnerable incumbent skate to another term. But if he were to get in the race, he would single-handidly change another contest in the GOP's favor.

IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) is up with his second ad in advance of the Feb. 2 primary. It's largely the same as the first ad, featuring his efforts to save 600 jobs at a Chicago business.

The biggest difference: This time, a voice-over actually mentions that Giannoulias is running for Senate. That particular detail was noticeably absent in his first ad.

By Reid Wilson

Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) is doing what Dems around the country have largely failed to do: Take the offense on the health care debate.

The NH Sen candidate launched a broadside on his most prominent GOP foe Wednesday over a front-page article in the Concord Monitor which takes ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R) to task over switching positions on small business association health plans.

"I think we've seen the real Kelly Ayotte. What we're seeing is that Kelly Ayotte is moving to the far right wing of her party," Hodes said in a Wednesday conference call. "Her plan is going to benefit big insurance companies, plain and simple."

"She wants to do today exactly what she argued against 3 years ago," he added. She was right in 2006. Her health care plan is bad for New Hampshire consumers. She was right when she said it."

It is not the first time Dems have engaged Ayotte during the race. Last week, the state Dem party took a swipe at Ayotte for meeting with ex-Rep. Dick Armey (R-TX), even though such a meeting did not take place.

The Hotline's John Mercurio takes a look at the lessons learned from last night's MA SEN primary:

Dems in MA answered one big question 12/8, overwhelmingly selecting AG Martha Coakley (D) as their nominee to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy. In doing so, however, they created a host of new unknowns -- in the Bay State and beyond.

First, just how much trouble will Democrats face in 2010?

The answer will become clearer on 1/19, when Coakley faces a general election against state Sen. Scott Brown (R). GOPers rightly downplay their chances in MA, which hasn't sent a GOPer to Congress since 1994. And Brown remains a decided underdog against Coakley, who won her party's nod convincingly Tuesday. (She drew roughly twice as many votes as the two GOP candidates combined). But in the state's first open Senate contest in a quarter-century, Dems will need to keep Brown's support under 40% to avoid questions about their national party's strength in the midterms.

Indeed, Brown on Tuesday night struck a surprisingly partisan tone for a blue-state GOPer. "We can send another partisan placeholder to the United States Senate, or we can try something new," he said. "... A year has passed since one-party rule came to Washington, and the last thing we need is more of it." He told the Boston Herald that he'd let voters decide "if they want an independent voice in Washington watching their wallets and pocketbooks or someone in lock step with Harry Reid and the special interests who'll raise their taxes."

Second, should other women follow the Coakley strategy?

Female candidates across the country closely watched the Democrat's campaign, which highlighted her status as the only woman in the race to appeal to female voters. One of just two women ever elected to statewide office in Massachusetts, Coakley was endorsed by EMILY's List and received contributions from women in every state in the country. Early on, she highlighted the support of Rep. Niki Tsongas (D), the only woman currently in the state's congressional delegation.

Read the rest of John's weekly column here.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-NV GOP chair/ex-state Sen. Sue Lowden (R) said abortion provisions in health care legislation currently making its way through the Senate would be Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's "Waterloo" and predicted his defeat.

A rival says health care legislation will be Reid's "Waterloo"

"I do not think that we should have federal funding for abortions. And I think that it'll be Harry Reid's Waterloo, that, no matter what is in the final version of the bill, it came out of his office, behind closed doors with federal funding," Lowden said Wednesday morning.

The comment mirrored that of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who told conservative bloggers in a July conference call that stopping Pres. Obama on health care would amount to his Waterloo.

"If we're able to stop Obama on this it will be his Waterloo. It will break him," DeMint said. The comments drew scorn from the WH and Dems, while conservatives lauded the sentiment.

"Stealing talking points from Jim DeMint and wishing for failure, when hundreds of thousands of Nevadans are suffering without health care is not exactly the leadership people are looking for in a United States senator," said Jon Summers, a Reid spokesperson. "While Sen. Reid is working on solutions to get Nevadans back to work, make health care affordable and turn around the state's economy, Sue Lowden is hoping for the worst and offering no vision to help Nevada's struggling families."

The NV SEN candidate, in DC to meet with leading GOPers, cast herself as the candidate best able to knock off Reid. She said Reid is aware that she would make his best rival, and that labor allies of Reid's would do their best to target her before the GOP primary.

"I do not doubt that the majority leader is going to have the full power of the entire AFL-CIO behind him. If you look at the FEC reports, you'll see that most of his support comes from the International Brotherhood of Something or Other," Lowden said.

"I might even see it in the primary. If I were Harry Reid, I would want to eliminate me in the primary," she added. "Because I am his greatest fear, I believe, in the general. I'm the biggest contrast he has, I can raise the money that needs to be raised. I believe I have the name qualifications to take him on in the business world and legislatively, and I'm not afraid of the camera."

Media reports out of NV say Reid's campaign has already begun digging through old documents looking for information on Lowden's past. Reid's campaign manager told Hotline OnCall that the campaign has been doing research.

But, Lowden said, given her and her husband's involvement in the gaming industry -- they have at one point or another owned several hotel/casinos -- she has already passed through worse scrutiny. Those who hold gaming licenses undergo background checks and are subjected to invasive searches by state regulatory authorities.

"Our lives have been thoroughly scrutinized. We assume people are listening to our phone calls," Lowden said. "We conduct our lives knowing that we are being scrutinized at all times."

"World News" led with a security breach within TSA. "Evening News" led with the winter storm and featured an interview with Gen. Ray Odierno. "Nightly News" led with Pres. Obama and the economy.

Dick Cheney was interviewed on "Hannity" 12/8 p.m.

Cheney, on whether his book will be "a tell-all": "It's not. It's more a matter of covering the 41 years I spent in Washington. Then we're done to, say, 12 months. ... There are some fascinating stories and interesting things I was involved in. That's not sort of the definitive history of the era, but what it is is a history of what I saw and what I did during that 41-year period of time from the beginning of the Nixon administration up until last January."

Cheney, on Obama "projecting weakness to America's enemies": "Most of us believe, and most presidents believe, and talk about the truly exceptional nature of America. Our history, where we come from, our belief in our constitutional values and principles, our advocacy for freedom and democracy. The fact that we provided it for millions of people all over the globe, have done so unselfishly."

More Cheney: "Yet when you have a president who goes around and bows to his host and then proceeds to apologize profusely for the United States, I find that deeply disturbing. It says to me there's this guy who doesn't fully understand or share that view of American exceptionalism that I think most of us believe in."

After the jump, more Cheney, WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett discusses WH relations with Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) and VA Gov./DNC Chair Tim Kaine and RNC Chair Michael Steele talk about Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's comments on slavery.

By Reid Wilson

Good Wednesday morning. AG Martha Coakley (D) starts a brief general election sprint as the overwhelming favorite over state Sen. Scott Brown (R) after both candidates convincingly won their respective primaries last night.

But today is a new day, and here is Wednesday's Starting Lineup, the people who are going to figure in headlines tomorrow:

SENATE LIBERALS: Centrist Dems won a big victory late 12/8 when they reached a deal with liberals that would keep a government-run public option out of the final health care bill the upper chamber votes on. Instead, talks that wound up last night centered on expanding Medicare to those 55 and older, a decade earlier than the 65-year age limit now in place.

But how this deal is received by the left will be the driving question over the next several days. Key liberals in the House have threatened to vote against a final bill if there is no public option, but at least some in the upper chamber are signaling they will go along with the compromise in order to see the final legislation pass. Sen. John Rockefeller (D-WV), a public option backer, said he had "a smile on my face," while Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) said he didn't like the agreement but would vote for it anyway.

We have yet to hear definitive statements from everyone on the Senate's left, but Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) hinted he would not support the proposal. Where Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) falls on the question could indicate the future of legislation under debate.

HAZLETON MAYOR LOU BARLETTA: The PA GOPer will make a third run for Congress this year, once again giving Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) a run for his money. The Scranton- and Wilkes-Barre-based district gave Kanjorski a 52%-48% win over Barletta in '08.

If GOPers are to have a good year, they need candidates like Barletta to mount strong campaigns. Barletta was a voice of the party's more populist wing, advocating tough immigration reforms and criticizing Kanjorski in '08 for supporting federal bailouts (Kanjorski chairs the Capital Markets subcommittee of the House Finance Committee).

By Felicia Sonmez

MA AG Martha Coakley (D) was the first candidate to announce her bid for the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), the first to submit nominating signatures -- and now, it appears, first in line to replace him.

With 44% of precincts reporting, Coakley has been declared the winner in the four-way primary against Rep. Michael Capuano (D-08), City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) and Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D). As of press time, Coakley is cruising to victory with 47% of the vote, compared to 28% for Capuano, 13% for Pagliuca and 12% for Khazei.

Turnout was expected to be low. Sec/State William Galvin (D) estimated that 500-900K of the state's 4.1M registered voters would show, with participation among indies in the open primary particularly low.

In a campaign that saw Capuano, Khazei and Pagliuca seeking to tie themselves to Kennedy and his legacy at every turn, Coakley stood apart. She was the only one of the four who did not invoke Kennedy in the final round of TV ads.

A key pillar of Coakley's campaign has been female voters. She has received donations from women in every state, and two-thirds of her donors have been women.

In an interview this afternoon, Coakley pollster Celinda Lake said she expected the electorate will be 58-59% female. That's comparable to turnout among women in the WH '08 Dem primary, when then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) beat then-Sen. Barack Obama (D) by 15 points. In that race, women comprised 58% of MA Dem primary voters.

But while Clinton carried women by 62%, Lake said Coakley is unlikely to perform as highly among women since she's competing in a four-candidate field.

By Reid Wilson

The war over Christmas is back, thanks to Rep. Henry Brown (R-SC), and he wants you to cut out that happy holidays nonsense.

Brown introduced a resolution 12/8 that would recognize the importance of Christmas, its symbols and traditions, concerned as he is about the rising tide of political correctness.

"I am perplexed by the mounting discussion surrounding the 'proper' way to commemorate December 25th. Why are we hard-pressed to say 'Season's Greetings' or 'Happy Holidays' yet, urged to avoid pronouncing the Christmas holiday and steered away from wishing others 'Merry Christmas'?" Brown said in a statement.

"I am troubled by the growing sentiment that the phrase 'Merry Christmas' is not appropriate and I am worried that attempts to celebrate a 'politically correct' holiday season may cause the loss of some of the traditions sacred to this widely celebrated holiday."

Indeed, the scourge of the "happy holiday" is creeping into all levels of Dec. In fact, Brown's opening line refers to "[t]his holiday season."

What, not this Christmas season?

By Jamie Shufflebarger

Ex-WWE exec/CT SEN candidate Linda McMahon (R) is in the midst of a two-day whirlwind publicity tour in DC, and the first-time candidate is getting good reviews.

She sat down 12/7 with Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and met today with Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and FreedomWorks staff, although ex-House Maj. Leader Dick Armey (R) was absent.

"They saw as her as a serious contender, a formidable candidate in this race," McMahon spokesperson Ed Patru said in an interview Tuesday in between meetings.

McMahon has certainly demonstrated her seriousness. She has committed $50M of her own money to the race.

McMahon also sat for a series of interviews with DC publications. But her opponents have already broadcast a punch that will be thrown her way, trotting out several ex-wrestlers who will publicly testify that she mishandled the WWE and mistreated its workers.

McMahon has already had to answer questions about violence, nudity, steroids, necrophilia, and more.

But McMahon has played up her outsider credentials, contrasting both with Sen. Chris Dodd (D) and her main primary rival, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons.

"We believe the overwhelming majority of voters that are frustrated with DC, disenchanted with career politicians, and they're looking for an outsider, someone with real-world experience, who understands how to create jobs and grow the economy. That's why she's capturing so much momentum," said Patru.

The federal government is about to get a lot more transparent, thanks to new guidelines issued by OMB Dir. Peter Orszag.

Orszag issued the new directives Tuesday that require federal agencies to take steps to become more transparent, including posting data sets online, publishing FOIA reports and making public a timeframe by which other data will be posted.

Each government agency will have to develop its own transparency plan, and the WH will monitor progress through a public dashboard feature on its website. If an agency falls behind, the WH site will show it.

Watchdog groups have been advocating for new transparency rules for years. The new regulations, which stem from a memo Pres. Obama signed on his first day in office, have been hailed as an unprecedented move.

"We think it's a bold new step toward creating transparency in government," said John Wonderlich of the Sunlight Foundation. "This is a serious commitment to openness."

Keep an eye on the WH website for the dashboard in coming weeks. We're betting the new transparency rules will make investigative reporting just a bit easier.

Check out Orszag's memo to agency heads here. [pdf]

By Reid Wilson

Two Dem retirements in competitive districts have given GOPers new hopes that a wave of open seats can hand them new opportunities. Now, GOP strategists are putting extra pressure on more than a dozen Dem lawmakers, hoping to convince them to retire rather than face difficult re-elections.

An informal list of 17 members the NRCC believes can be convinced to step down, privately called the "Dem Retirement Assault List," makes clear the party needs Dem incumbents to step aside if they have hopes of taking back the majority. The NRCC has taken pains to attack those lawmakers in recent weeks.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen and NRCC chair Pete Sessions are watching House retirements

McCain narrowly won seats held by Reps. John Spratt (D-SC), Allen Boyd (D-FL), Vic Snyder (D-AR), Baron Hill (D-IN), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Tim Holden (D-PA) and Collin Peterson (D-MN).

The NRCC has also begun targeting Reps. Sanford Bishop (D-GA), Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) and Leonard Boswell (D-IA), three members who already have credible opponents but who occupy seats Pres. Obama won in '08.

"Applying constant pressure in combination with the looming threat of a credible challenge is what should make every single one of these guys think twice," said a GOP strategist involved in targeting the Dems.

The pressure has largely come from press releases hammering the incumbents, but the NRCC has signaled it will put at least a little money behind the effort. Last month, the NRCC launched ads against Pomeroy, Snyder and Spratt. Although the ad buys were tiny -- the GOP spent a total of just $6,300 for a few spots on Fox News in all three districts -- they attracted earned media as well.

Already, Reps. John Tanner (D-TN) and Dennis Moore (D-KS) have said they will not run for re-election next year. Though Dems have already picked up a good recruit in Tanner's seat and have no shortage of strong candidates eying Moore's, the GOP will make a push to pick up both districts.

By Felicia Sonmez

MA has never before held a statewide special election -- so even in a race as highly-anticipated as today's primary to fill the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), turnout remains an unknown, and crucial, factor.

According to the most recent estimates from Sec/State William Galvin's office, there are 4.2M registered voters in the state, with 3.7M eligible to vote in the open Dem primary: 1.6M, or 37%, are registered Dems, and 2.1M, or 51%, are unenrolled in a party. 490K, or 12% of all voters, are registered GOPers.

The Sec/State's office estimates that turnout could be as low as 300-500K -- or about 8-13% of eligible Dem primary voters -- while some of the campaigns are predicting as many as 600K, or about 16%, will turn out.

A look at the state's recent primaries shows wide disparities in who comes out to vote, and for what.

In the WH '08 Dem primary on Super Tuesday, 35%, or 1.2M out of 3.5M eligible Dem primary voters turned out. Among a Dem primary electorate that was 58% female, then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) beat then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) 56-41%, winning 62% of women.

About seven months later, in the SEN primary between Kerry and atty Ed O'Reilly (D), turnout was down to 14%, or about 506K of 3.5M eligible Dem primary voters.

Going back to the Sep. '06 GOV primary, 27%, or 926K of 3.4M eligible Dem primary voters turned out to vote for Gov. Deval Patrick (D) over businessman/'02 LG nominee Chris Gabrieli (D) and then-AG Tom Reilly (D).

And in the Sep. '04 statewide primary, when few races were on the ballot, turnout was a low 11%, or 378K of 3.4M eligible Dem primary voters.

by Rachelle Douillard-Proulx

"World News" and "Evening News" each led with the EPA's announcement regarding the dangers of greenhouse gases. "Nightly News" led with the climate summit in Copenhagen.

Ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina addressed climate change on "Your World" 12/7 p.m.

Fiorina, on Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) being upset over the way climate change emails were exposed: "It may be a legal issue, but it is certainly first and foremost a factual issue. We need to know the facts. And what I find so ironic about Barbara Boxer's outcry over this is that, in 2008, she was accusing the Bush administration of a grand conspiracy to cover up global warming. She wanted to know the facts desperately then. Apparently, she doesn't think they are very important right now, when they don't support her political point of view. The American people deserve to know the facts, whatever they are and wherever they point."

More Fiorina: "But I think the issue that you're talking about today is an example of why we need people with some real-world business experience in the U.S. Senate. Global climate change, whatever the facts are, is an opportunity for mischief-making. We can create regulation or legislation that kills jobs and opportunity in this country, or we can take an approach that says, let's make sure that we give American businesses, small, medium, and large, every opportunity to lead the clean green revolution. And, today, we are doing the opposite" (FNC, 12/7).

After the jump, health care is all the rage.

Good Tuesday morning. Want to know which team won The Fix's first trivia night? Look no farther than The Hotline team featuring Quinn McCord, Steven Shepard, Felicia Sonmez and Jamie Shufflebarger.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people who will make headlines today:

BAY STATE VOTERS: Voters head to the polls today to select nominees to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy in a race that has drawn far less attention than we thought possible. AG Martha Coakley leads the Dem field, where she is competing with Rep. Michael Capuano, Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei.

Coakley has led from the beginning, and a moderate turnout will help her today. Capuano needs a lower turnout, concentrated around his base near Boston. Pagliuca and Khazei have spent millions on the race, but seem not to factor much in the polls.

If she wins today, Coakley would be the Bay State's first female senator when she faces the eventual GOP nominee -- likely state Sen. Scott Brown -- in Jan. One question left unanswered: Where does Capuano go from here? The 6-term Dem is moving up in the House, and he's long been a close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

SENS. RUSS FEINGOLD AND JOHN MCCAIN: The legal community in DC is abuzz with rumors that the Supreme Court will hand down a decision in Citizens United v. FEC this morning, a case that will likely be the most important campaign finance lawsuit in decades. It has the potential to upend key portions of McCain-Feingold and funnel more money into the political system.

And if Court-watchers are right, McCain and Feingold will be handed a significant defeat. The Court is expected to overturn provisions dealing with electioneering communications, a big victory for those who believe organizations should be allowed to conduct issue advocacy campaigns regardless of the election calendar.

But McCain and Feingold are not going to give up if they face a setback. Expect to see new legislation from the reformist pair in short order -- legislation they have a good chance of passing. Still, their foes have allies on the Court, and as one smart election atty told us last week, any new legislation will be the subject of a new round of litigation in short order.

UPDATE: Today's opinions are out, and once again the Court has not ruled on Citizens United. Keep an eye on this case when it does come out, which could be as early as next Monday.

Doing anything the morning of Dec. 17? You are now. Come join National Journal political analyst Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report; The Hotline's Amy Walter and two of the best pollsters in the business for a look ahead at the '10 landscape.

The event happens 12/17 at the Liaison Capitol Hill hotel, from 8 to 9:30 a.m. Join your friendly neighborhood OnCall editor and hear from the best political analysts in Washington.

Can't make it? The event livestreams at NextGenWeb.org.

Check out the invitation for more details:

By Erin McPike

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) thinks it is Dems who are fighting for the status quo when it comes to health care.

In a document his Republican Policy Committee is releasing today, Thune points to CBO numbers that estimate 90 percent of Americans will see their premiums rise by 5 to 6 percent per year -- double the rate of inflation.

"Democrats want to spend $2.5 trillion but still leave 90 percent of Americans saddled with the same costly premium increases they can't afford now. Only in Washington DC is that considered reform," Thune said.

"$2.5 million for more of the same? That's not reform," blasts the RPC.

Thune, who made a splash several weeks ago with his TARP fix, will be hitting the media circuit hard on the message today and Tuesday.

The South Dakotan is up for re-election next year, but his national profile has ballooned in recent months since taking the reins of the RPC and flexing his muscles on Card Check and other key issues.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) announced today he will run against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) next year, giving Dems a solid recruit against the GOP incumbent who tops their target list.

"For years, while our families were watching their jobs disappear and their quality of life evaporate, Richard Burr was voting right down the party line with George Bush to bankrupt our country, send our jobs overseas and give away the store to the oil companies and the insurance industry," Cunningham said at a morning press conference. Richard Burr has become a textbook example of what's wrong in Washington. He refuses to accept responsibility and demands no fiscal accountability."

Cunningham will face Sec/State Elaine Marshall and atty Kenneth Lewis in the Dem primary, and while the DSCC is not officially taking sides, it is clear that DC Dems prefer Cunningham as their nominee.

The party may have reason to be optimistic: Last year, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) lost her re-election bid to then-state Sen. Kay Hagan, and Pres. Obama became the first Dem to win the state since LBJ in '64 Jimmy Carter in '76 (Thanks to a commenter for pointing out our error). But Burr is a skilled politician who knows what he faces.

So, we posed the question to several NC experts on both sides: Is Richard Burr actually vulnerable next year?

Yes, Burr Is Vulnerable

As a Burr advisor warned, NC has not re-elected a senator -- with the exception of Jesse Helms -- for 30 years. Even Dole, a well-known figure in NC with no major negatives before her race started, went down to a surprising defeat.

And with demographics like those in NC, Dem chances are starting to look a lot better. In '08, the state's younger voters and African American voters turned out in numbers disproportionate to their population.

Meanwhile, with Cunningham's entry into the race, Dems finally have a candidate they can hang their hats on. Neither Marshall nor Lewis has impressed DC Dems with their fundraising abilities. And Cunningham's profile -- a state senator who served in Iraq -- will be appealing to many Tar Heels.

Burr himself has political problems. Just 21% of NC voters would vote to re-elect him, according to a Research 2000 poll taken for the liberal Change Congress group 10/31-11/1, and he leads Marshall by a tiny 42%-35% margin.

By Reid Wilson

LA Sec/State Jay Dardenne (R) is contemplating a bid against Sen. David Vitter (R), he told the Baton Rouge Advocate this weekend. Allies have urged Dardenne to commission a poll, he said.

"I've had a lot of people suggest that I do that. I'd have to raise some money. I may do that," he told the paper. "A lot of people have suggested that's a step that should be taken before making a final decision."

Dardenne's name has frequently been floated as a potential candidate. A former state senator, Dardenne was first elected statewide in '06 before winning a full term in '07. He is wealthy enough to help finance some of his own campaign, should he decide to get in the race.

He occupies a spot farther right on the political spectrum than Vitter, and if he decides to put together a campaign, the incumbent would have no choice but to pay attention.

In fact, Vitter appears to be preparing for a challenge from the right by taking several votes seemingly aimed at shoring up his right flank. He was one of just two senators to vote against the confirmation of Sec/State Hillary Clinton, criticized a more centrist GOPer as "wishy washy" and voted with GOPers on every key bill this year.

Regardless of his record, social conservatives are upset with Vitter after his phone number appeared in the records of Deborah Jeane Palfrey, the so-called D.C. Madam, in '07. Vitter apologized for his transgressions, but social conservatives still considered challenging him in a primary.

The winner of a hypothetical Vitter-Dardenne matchup would face Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in the general.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is defending one of his signature initiatives as a likely WH '12 rival makes it a key early issue.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has criticized the Romney-led Commonwealth Care, a massive health care reform bill signed into law in '06 that increased coverage for Bay State residents. Pawlenty has said the bill's costs have spiraled out of control, signaling he aims to use it as a contrast with the WH '12 front-runner.

But on CNN's "State of the Union," Romney said Pawlenty's criticisms miss the mark.

"I'm afraid facts are stubborn things," Romney said, when shown a clip of Pawlenty criticizing the program. "The Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation has taken a good look at the Massachusetts plan some three or four years after it was passed, and it is well within the original forecast. It's about -- a little over 1 percent of the state budget. And in fact, virtually all of our citizens are insured."

Romney said his state-level program got it right because it was not created at the federal level, and that the lack of a public option would keep costs down. Then, in Romney's most overt jab at Pawlenty to date, he issued a veiled challenge.

"By the way, if other governors can come up with something better than I did, congratulations. We'll copy one another," Romney said.

Pawlenty has been assaulting Romney's involvement in Commonwealth Care for months. In late July, he sent a letter to the MN congressional delegation urging them not to adopt an initial health care proposal he said too closely resembled the MA plan. Though he later denied it was a shot at Romney, it is hard to overlook the number of times Pawlenty has assailed a program one of his lead rivals has used as a credential for so long.

A Feb. '08 report in the Boston Globe cites internal state projections showing the cost of Commonwealth Care growing from $618M that year to $1.35B by '11. Romney frequently cites a report from the MA Taypayers Foundation from May '09 which found costs "relatively modest and well within initial projections."

Both Romney and Pawlenty have spent far more time focusing on Pres. Obama's record than on each other. But Romney got testy a few times during the '08 campaign when his record was challenged. Pawlenty is signaling he will not be shy about lobbing similar challenges Romney's way.

By Erin McPike

KY AG Jack Conway (D) has hired Jonathan Drobis to manage his Senate campaign.

Drobis was dep. campaign manager to NY Comptroller Bill Thompson (D), who came close to upsetting NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg last month in his run for a third term. He previously worked for the consulting firm Abrosino, Muir & Hansen, and worked on Sec/State Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

Mark Riddle, a Kentucky-based strategist, has been advising Conway's efforts via his media firm. Riddle will stay on as general consultant.

LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) is running against Conway in the Dem primary, and eye surgeon Rand Paul (R) is waging a spirited and well-funded GOP primary campaign against KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) for the chance to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in the Senate.

Conway will be in Washington for meetings on Thursday.

By Reid Wilson

Good Monday morning. Who dat say dey gonna blow a game against dem Saints? Oh, the Redskins.

Here is today's Starting Lineup, the people who will matter on Mon., Dec. 7:

GEN. STANLEY MCCHRYSTAL: Last week's consensus: The war in Afghanistan is now Pres. Obama's war. This week's emerging meme: McChrystal is the big winner.

Following a Sunday show marathon in which Def. Sec. Robert Gates and Sec/State Hillary Clinton insisted there is no set date for total withdrawal, and that the July '11 date is simply the beginning of the process, most analysts agree that McChrystal got virtually everything he wanted. His mission will largely be the same as the one he laid out in an assessment sent to the WH late this summer.

McChrystal isn't facing voters any time soon, but politics certainly play a role in the war. Domestically, Obama and company have to deal with the fact that a majority of Americans now say they oppose the war -- 51%, compared with 46% who favor it, according to a new CNN/ORC poll [pdf]. But POTUS's surge is going to be much better received than Pres. Bush's Iraq surge -- 62% back sending additional troops to Afghanistan, while 37% favored sending more troops to Iraq in March '07.

Internationally, Obama has to build support for his plan. NATO forces have already pledged 7K additional troops, but more are needed. Turkey has said it will not send more forces, but Obama and VP Biden will meet with Prime Minister Recep Erdogan at the WH today, and that stance may change.

SEN. HARRY REID: Health care legislation notwithstanding, the top Senate Dem has his own hide to worry about. A survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Reid trailing two little-known GOPers, even after spending $950K on positive ads over the last month and a half. The survey shows no change from the last time the R-J polled the race, suggesting that the ads just aren't working.

By Tim Sahd

In another sign that the environment has tilted away from Dems, a new poll out today shows Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) tied with ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (R) in the Las Vegas suburbs.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal survey, conducted 11/30-12/2, tested Titus, Heck and real estate developer Rob Lauer (R). The Mason-Dixon survey polled 300 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 6%.

General Election Matchup

Titus        40%
Heck         40


Titus        48%
Lauer        32

This CD is tough enough for any incumbent to hold, as its transient population (it has grown by nearly 37% since '00) makes it tough for any sitting Rep. to gain traction. Indeed, it has grown nearly 37% since '00, and ex-Rep. Jon Porter (R), who had considerable campaign skills, never fully got a foothold here.

But this is the type of seat where Dems should still have an advantage. Pres. Obama easily won it with 55%, and Dems had been counting on the increased interest generated by the '08 WH primary to cement their hold on the CD. Indeed, the Third now has a clear, 33K Dem voter-registration advantage. Just two years ago, the parties were at parity in the CD.

The poll suggests that the recent health care bill has hurt Titus' position, as 47% of respondents say they disapproved of her vote, while only 41% approved of it.

The economy -- the Las Vegas area has been acutely impacted by the recession -- surely also plays a part in Titus' troubles. Voters blamed the GOP for the nation's economic woes in '08, and Titus took advantage of those feelings and aired TV ads blaming Porter's "failed economic policies" for the loss of jobs. If the economy doesn't turn around by '10, that same TV ad could be run against Titus, and it could have similar impacts.

But considering the tightening in the Congressional Generic ballot, and anecdotal polling evidence, Titus is surely not alone in feeling the heat. There's still 11 months to go until Election Day, but the early signs are very favorable for GOPers.

By Reid Wilson

Bipartisanship is virtually nonexistant in DC, but both parties have signaled a willingness to work together on one issue they both acknowledge needs to be fixed: The presidential nominating process.

Both the DNC and the RNC have established special commissions to reexamine their primary process, and experts in both parties have agreed they can move back the beginning of the process and hold states accountable -- but only if they work together.

The Dem Change Commission, which met 12/5 in DC, will recommend holding the first nominating contests in IA and NH in Feb., a month later than they were held in '08, and will recommend holding other contests -- opening the so-called "window" -- in March, rather than Feb. An RNC commission is likely to make similar proposals when they deliver their report next year.

But a party is only able to dictate when states will hold their contests so much. In '08, MI and FL violated the window and were punished, while IA and NH threatened to move their contests into Dec., if necessary.

Now, the parties are trying to use the carrot as well as the stick. A Dem proposal would give states that hold their contests later in the process bonus delegates, while GOPers are still debating their proposals.

"The one power that we have are these incentives. We control the number of delegates these states get," said James Roosevelt, the co-chair of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee and a Change Commission member.

Roosevelt has held private discussions with RNC members interested in pushing back the beginning of the calendar. He declined to elaborate on those discussions.

"I am optimistic, but not certain," he said. "They're definitely interested in the same outcome."

But even if the DNC and the RNC come to a mutually satisfactory conclusion, the parties will have to deal with state legislatures, which appropriate money for the primary elections and which can dictate the date on which those elections are held.

"The message to all states from last time is, if you're not in compliance, you run a risk," said David Plouffe, who managed Pres. Obama's '08 campaign.

And sometimes, incentives to hold contests earlier than party rules allow go beyond grabbing attention; instead, holding contests earlier can give one presidential candidate a leg up on another.

"Florida was not just a legislative body, it was a legislative body that was being heavily lobbied by presidential candidates," said Donna Brazile of the decision to move the state's primary ahead of dates allowed by the parties. Allies of ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) agitated to move that primary earlier because they thought their candidate would easily win the state.

"This [process] is also driven by presidential candidates," said Brazile, who managed VP Al Gore's campaign in '00. "I can tell you back in 2000 that I drilled the process for Al Gore."

Brazile, who is not a member of the Change Commission but is a member of the RBC, looked around the meeting room 12/5, a room full of consultants, politicians and longtime Dem activists. "Nobody has clean hands in this," she said.

But enforcing the calendar can only work if both parties have the same incentives, and the same punishments.

"It's one thing to have the same timing rules for each party. If we don't have the same sanctions, we get burned," Roosevelt said.

Added Brazile: "This is why politics is more interesting on the weekends."

Ex-fed judge Brian Sandoval (R) leads both the incumbent governor of his own party and the leading Dem candidate, according to a new survey. But if Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs as an independent, as he has threatened to do, Sandoval will find himself in a dogfight.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal survey, conducted 11/30-12/2, tested Sandoval, Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), North Las Vegas Mayor Michael Montandon (R), Clark Co. Commis. exec. Rory Reid (D) and Goodman. The Mason-Dixon survey polled 625 regular voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%, with a subsample of 300 GOP primary voters for a margin of error of +/- 6%.

GOP Primary Election Matchup
Sandoval     39
Gibbons      18
Montandon     6

General Election Matchups

Sandoval     49
Reid         34

Reid         48
Gibbons      34

Goodman      35
Sandoval     32
Reid         24

Goodman      38
Reid         25
Gibbons      25

Gibbons, buffeted by years of controversy that seemingly won't go away, has said he will run for re-election, but his prospects have never looked good.

The difference in Reid's support, when matched up against Sandoval instead of Gibbon, comes from independent voters -- and speaks volumes about Reid's political troubles. Reid and Gibbons are tied with 40% each, a stunning figure considering Gibbons is seen favorably by just 19% of NVans and is seen unfavorably by 50%.

Meanwhile, Sandoval has 47% support among independents, while 30% would back Reid. Sandoval even leads among Clark Co. voters, 45%-39%.

Most political observers in NV don't actually believe Goodman will run. He has flirted with a GOV bid before, but the attention-loving mayor -- who is escorted to public meetings and conferences by Las Vegas showgirls -- took a pass then, and is expected to say no again.

By Reid Wilson

Dems are headed for what could be a major showdown over the power of super-delegates as a commission aimed at reforming the primary process wraps up its work.

Meeting in DC, the Dem Change Commission put finishing touches on a report it will make to another party committee recommending changes to the timeline, the caucus process and the influence of unpledged delegates.

Members largely agree that presidential nominating contests need to begin later, and that caucus states need to group together to establish best practices.

But disagreement over unpledged delegates remain after '08, when the nominating process between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton focused largely on those super-delegates. Dem members of Congress, governors and DNC members are given automatic votes at national conventions, making up nearly 20% of voting delegates -- enough to have given either Clinton or Obama a winning majority after pledged delegates were allocated.

The commission needs to "make sure the American people understand that their vote counts," said Donna Brazile, Al Gore's campaign manager in '00. Proponents of reducing super-delegate influence say elected delegates should have all the power, while opponents say elected party officials should keep control over part of the process.

The Change Commission's draft report suggests reducing the influence of unpledged super-delegates but does not offer specific proposals.

"[I]t is now time to significantly reduce the role of automatic, unpledged delegates in our nominating process," the draft says. But, it adds: "The unpledged delegates cover a wide range of elected officials and local Democratic activists. Commission members felt it critical to keep these party leaders involved in the process. Any reduction to the number of unpledged delegates must continue to provide participation in the convention, and also during the primary process in their own states."

"I don't think we've come to a consensus yet," admitted Minyon Moore, a commission member and Dem consultant who headed the WH political affairs office under Pres. Clinton.

The real fight will happen when the Change Commission gives their recommendations to the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee. Each member of the RBC is a super-delegate, making it unlikely they will happliy give away their own power, or that of their colleagues on the DNC.

Brazile, who is not on the Change Commission but is a member of the RBC, previewed one potential compromise by suggesting the number of elected delegates pledged to future presidential candidates be increased, so that the percentage of total delegates who are unelected is reduced.

"I will continue to support efforts to increase the power of the pledged delegates," Brazile said.

In a brief interview with Hotline OnCall as he signed copies of his new book for fans, David Plouffe, Pres. Obama's '08 campaign manager and a commission member, refused to predict how the debate would resolve itself.

The commission will finalize the report on a conference call later this month.

By Felicia Sonmez

Four MA Dems faced off for the last time before the 12/8 primary this a.m. in a largely positive and issues-focused debate devoid of the fireworks that marked their two TV debates earlier this week.

Rep. Michael Capuano (D-08) unveiled a new closing argument geared toward undecided voters, urging them to trust the judgment of the political figures who have endorsed his bid.

He told the audience at the UMass Dartmouth forum that if they're still not sure who to vote for after researching all the candidates, "I ask you to turn to the people that you've already elected, that you already know and that you already trust." He listed the names of prominent endorsers including ex-Gov. Michael Dukakis (D) and Rep. Barney Frank (D-04).

"You know them better than you'll know any of us by Tuesday," Capuano said. "I ask you trust their judgment."

AG Martha Coakley (D), who delivered her closing argument last, touted her record as a prosecutor who fought Wall Street, predatory lenders and pharmaceutical companies.

Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) told the audience that he is the candidate best suited to bring back jobs and seize the "best chance in a generation" to pass health care reform. Meanwhile, City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) focused on his background of working to change Washington from the outside.

"As a citizen, I took on and beat Tom DeLay. Now, he's reduced to crying on 'Dancing with the Stars,' and I'm running for the United States Senate," Khazei said.

None of the candidates today directly took on Coakley, who has maintained a consistent lead in public polling, although Capuano has been gaining ground in recent weeks.

Voters have been largely tuned out from the race to fill the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D). No members of Kennedy's immediate family have endorsed, although niece Caroline Kennedy attended a Khazei fundraiser last month and said it would be "amazing if this guy won."

The Boston Globe yesterday quizzed 25 passersby in downtown Boston and found that only six could name all four Dem candidates when shown pictures of them. Coakley, however, remains the most widely recognized -- 18 of the 25 correctly identified her.

By Reid Wilson

After spending most of the last several months playing defense, Dems are ending this week, at least, on a high note.

A day after a major jobs summit, and just before Pres. Obama's trip to Allentown, PA to kick off a jobs tour, New unemployment numbers showed an unexpected drop in the number of people out of work.

Last month, the economy shed just 11K jobs, well below analysts' expectations. What's more, the unemployment rate actually fell, to 10% from 10.2%. Add to that a CBO study that estimated the stimulus package had saved or created between 600K and 1.6M jobs through the end of Sept. while generating higher economic output and Dems have, for the first time all year, numbers they can point to while claiming credit.

Meanwhile, Obama's new strategy in Afghanistan has won praise from GOPers, albeit with the caveat that they oppose a firm withdrawal date. Liberals remain upset, but Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down the idea of a war surtax, and both House and Senate strategists are convinced Dems will largely go along with funding requests the WH submits.

As health care reform continues its tough slog through the Senate, Dems and the WH have at least two wins under their belt this week -- for the first time in a very long time.

But that doesn't mean all is right with the majority party. Liberal angst over the WH's handling of the economy -- which led to this week's job summit and renewed attention to a jobs bill being written now -- and the war remains a big concern for party strategists. Dem voters remain lethargic and unmotivated, something that could spell trouble for the party next year.

Improving economic data is a positive step for the WH, but until voters start to believe the economy is actually getting better, stats put out by the CBO and the Labor Dept. will not translate into positive movement for Dem approval numbers.

It was a good week for Dems. But good news, and an improved political position, remains a goal on the horizon, rather than close at hand.

By Cyra Master

'06 Ag. Commis nominee Hank Gilbert (D) dropped out of the TX GOV race today, endorsing businessman/hair product creator Farouk Shami (D) over a candidate most of the Dem establishment is backing.

"I said from the onset that the only reason I was getting into the race was I didn't see leadership at the top of the ticket that I thought could mount a credible race," Gilbert said. "Now we have what I feel to be two credible candidates for this position, who will have the necessary funding advantage to mount a serious challenge to Gov. Rick Perry (R), who I feel will be the Republican nominee."

Gilbert's conference call was scheduled at the same time Houston Mayor Bill White (D) was officially announcing his GOV bid, switching from the special SEN election that may be held to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) if she resigns, as promised, after the Mar. '10 GOP GOV primary. Gilbert said he expected someone to ask about the timing of his announcement.

He reached his decision "at about 10:30 last night" after talking with his family and told his staff he wanted to make the announcement today. But, he only had between 12 and 1 p.m. free because his sons are in a statewide leadership contest, which he spent "all morning" driving to. He joined the conference call "from a parking lot of a motel" in Huntsville, TX, where the competition is being held and where, he noted cheerfully, that it was snowing.

"I missed the district and area (competitions) because I was campaigning and I promised to be there (today)," Gilbert said. "That's the big reason we're doing it right now."

Gilbert endorsed Shami after a "long, long visit with him" and said he believes Shami "is doing this from his heart" and is the candidate who can "get the wagon out of the ditch and get this state on the road to prosperity."

White, he said, lost his trust after he promised "on two specific occasions" that he would stay in the SEN race. Dem leaders quickly lauded White's decision to join the race.

By Abby Livingston

As if the drama of network news ratings races and show shake ups couldn't get any more exciting.

On the eve of answering the question, "What's George Stephanopoulos' next move?", the ABC host's "This Week" beat "Meet the Press" in total viewers for the week of 11/29. The ABC show won with a 2.0 Rating/5 Share with 2.768M viewers.

However, NBC's "Meet the Press" still won in shares with a 1.9 Rating/6 Share with 2.673M viewers. "Face the Nation" came in third with a 1.8 Rating/5 Share with 2.604M viewers. "Fox News Sunday" came in fourth with a 0.8 Rating/2 Share with 1.170M viewers.

For the Nielson neophyte, these numbers mean that a larger share of TVs were tuned to "Meet the Press," but more eyeballs were watching "This Week" (on a fewer number of televisions).

The last time "This Week" won in total viewers was 8/2. This is "This Week"'s third win of '09. The other time was when Stephanopoulos hosted Pres. Obama on 1/11, according to sources.

An ABC press release describes it as "the third clean win" for "This Week" among total viewers this year, meaning "regular/full coverage shows only."

By Reid Wilson

MA AG Martha Coakley (D) is getting help from outside groups as the front-runner in her bid to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

In the last week, three Dem organizations have spent more than $300,000 on her behalf. It's not like Coakley needs the money -- through early Nov., she had already raised nearly $4.2M on her own.

But it hasn't stopped SEIU from jumping on the bandwagon. The union has radio ads running around the state, and on Thursday it spent $65K on phone banks on her behalf. All told, SEIU has spent $279K on Coakley.

Meanwhile, EMILY's List, the organization dedicated to electing pro-choice Dem women, has spent $112,000 on mail and phone banks. Planned Parenthood, another group that supports abortion rights, has paid for $40,000 worth of mail to Bay State voters.

Even though he has endorsements from AFT, the UAW, Machinists and the Laborer's Union, none have spent money on Rep. Mike Capuano's behalf. And outside groups haven't run ads benefiting City Year founder Alan Khazei (D) or venture capitalist Steve Paliuca (D), either.

by Abby Livingston

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Sec/State Hillary Clinton, Defense Sec. Robert Gates and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). The roundtable will feature New York Times' Thomas Friedman and Washington Post's Bob Woodward.

Face the Nation hosts Sec/State Hillary Clinton and Defense Sec. Robert Gates.

This Week hosts Sec/State Hillary Clinton, Defense Sec. Robert Gates and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI). The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, Council on Foreign Relations' Richard Haas, Nation's Katrina vanden Heuvel and Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan.

Fox News Sunday hosts Gen. David Petraeus, Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Kennedy Center Honors producer George Stephens, Jr. The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, ex-WH press sec. Dana Perino and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts NSA James Jones, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Dem strategist James Carville, GOP strategist Mary Matalin and ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has hired a new top aide to help him raise big money, a source tells Hotline OnCall.

Pawlenty, who has begun exploring a Pres. bid for '12, has hired Brian Haley as his PAC's finance director.

Haley joins a stable of consultants and advisors Pawlenty has brought on board in recent months. In Oct., he picked up ex-RGA exec. dir. Phil Musser, ex-McCain manager Terry Nelson, ex-WH political affairs dir. Sara Taylor and ex-RNC press secretary Alex Conant, as well as a stable of new media consultants.

Michael Toner, the former FEC commissioner, is the PAC's chief counsel.

Pawlenty's Freedom First PAC has some catching up to do as he seeks to build goodwill around the country. Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has been a presence on the fundraising circuit since he ended his '08 bid, and his Free and Strong America PAC has distributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to GOP candidates.

But Pawlenty is ramping up his fundraising, holding a big-dollar event last night in Chicago, along with a smaller reception for Chicago young GOPers -- part of a strategy to reach out to younger GOP activists that included a get-to-know-you event at a DC brewery last month.

By Reid Wilson

Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid trails two potential rivals by significant margins, according to a new poll out of the Silver State.

Businessman Danny Tarkanian (R) leads Reid by a 48%-42% margin, while ex-state GOP chair/ex-state Sen. Sue Lowden (R) has a 51%-41% advantage, according to the Mason-Dixon survey taken for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Reid has gone on TV with several early ads touting his success in helping the troubled Las Vegas economy through rough times, pointing to loans he helped secure for CityCenter, a major construction project on the Strip that employs thousands of workers. But those ads -- a GOP source tells us Reid has spent $950K running the ads over the last 6 weeks -- have not moved his favorable numbers; 38% view him favorably, while 49% see him in an unfavorable light, virtually identical to his ratings in the Oct. '09 poll.

But Reid has long indicated that he will run a campaign heavy on contrast -- that is, he will define his eventual opponents before they define themselves. Fully 54% of NVans have no opinion of Lowden, while 56% say they don't know enough about Tarkanian to form an opinion.

That gives Reid the opportunity to use much of the $25M he has said he will raise and spend to blast GOPers, in hopes of making his foe more unpalatable to the electorate than he is. Already, Reid campaign manager Brandon Hall has signaled opposition research is well underway.

Dems, by and large, believe NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D) waited too long to begin sustained attacks against opponent Chris Christie (R), a misstep that cost Corzine the race. Reid has no intention of making the same mistake.

Meanwhile, in the GOP primary, Lowden and Tarkanian each take about a quarter of the vote, with Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) clocking in at 13%. Five other candidates, including investment banker John Chachas (R), who has pledged to spend millions of his own money on the race, received 1% support.

The Mason-Dixon survey tested 625 RVs between 11/30-12/2 for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

By Reid Wilson

Houston Mayor Bill White (D) will announce today he is running for GOV next year, giving Dems a top recruit in a state they haven't won for 20 years.

White's decision comes after Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) decided against resigning her post prior to the state's Mar. '10 primary. White had planned to run for the seat once Hutchison stepped down.

Now, White will likely face the winner of what promises to be a bloody primary between Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry (R).

White has to make it past a few lesser-known Dem candidates (and Kinky Friedman), but the TX Dem establishment is expected to quickly coalesce around his candidacy. What's more, he already has the money to compete statewide; White has nearly $4.2M in the bank from his SEN bid, and TX's liberal campaign finance laws will make it possible for him to compete with either Hutchison or Perry.

No Dem has won any statewide office in TX since '94, and no Dem has won the governorship since Ann Richards in '90. As Houston Chronicle columnist Rick Casey notes, no big-city mayor has ever been elected governor (That holds true in many states: Being mayor is not a great way to take the state's top job. Just ask every NYC mayor who's ever run for higher office).

But White will give Dems a chance, and in a state where demographics are rapidly shifting and where GOPers are fighting amongst themselves, the party could take advantage and pull a major upset.

by Rachelle Douillard-Proulx & Abby Livingston

"World News" and "Evening News" led with Pres. Obama's jobs summit. "Nightly News" led with changes in breast cancer screenings.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) went on "LKL" 12/3 p.m.

Romney, on whether he'll run in '12: "I'm going to be working hard for people who are running for election in 2010. ... I'm going to campaign for senate candidates and house candidates in particular. ... Only Republicans, conservatives across the country. And probably some governors and state treasurers. In Washington, we really need balance again. This one party setting in Washington is really frightening. I'm going to work real hard to get Republicans elected. And my own plans will take shape after that."

Romney, on whether he's concerned about ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) as an opponent: "I'm not making any decision about my own plans to run. She is an energetic person. She would be a terrific candidate. She has a great following. She brought energy and passion to our party. I haven't read her book yet. I look forward to reading it. I understand John McCain said it was an enjoyable read. I always enjoy enjoyable reads. So I'll get a chance to do that and wish her well."

Romney, on ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R): "Mike is a good man and worked hard as a governor with regards to the pardon, I think we're all focused on the extraordinary tragedy in the lives of families in Washington. You have three families that lost their father. One family that lost their mother. I mean this is just tragic. And Mike said it. I think he indicated, had he got the chance to do that again, based on what he knows now, of course he wouldn't have made that decision. And I believe that's true."

After the jump, more Romney, pols weigh in on the jobs summit, and the latest in the WH party crashers debacle.

By Reid Wilson and John Mercurio

Good Friday morning. We are happy to report that holiday party season is in full swing.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup for Dec. 4, the people and numbers that matter today:

JOBS NUMBERS: A government report out this morning is expected to show job losses slowing a day after the WH held a major jobs summit. Analysts expect the economy to have shed about 100,000 non-farm jobs in Nov., down from 190,000 the month before, and stock futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading.

But the fact remains that jobs will be lost, and Cong. GOPers already have their press releases written. It has been, and will be, a constant theme going into next year: With unemployment above 10% and not expected to dip below that mark for months, GOPers are asking why jobs are still being lost after a $787B stimulus package.

Given polls that show most voters overwhelmingly say the economy is their top concern, well above health care, the election will be fought on a jobs terrain. A new skirmish will erupt today when the report is issued at 8:30 a.m.

Updated: A big win for the WH today, as unemployment actually falls from 10.2% to 10%. Non-farm payrolls fall by an unexpectedly low 11,000 in Nov.

LABOR SEC. HILDA SOLIS: Solis headed yesterday's job summit, but she has (so far) played a relatively low-profile role in the administration's overall jobs campaign. Considering the aforementioned polls, shouldn't the Labor secretary be playing as prominent a role as, say, Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner or HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebelius has (respectively) throughout the recession and health care debate? Solis is also a valuable spokeswoman who can appeal to Hispanic voters in key states. So ... where is she?

SEN. BEN NELSON: The NE Dem has played a crucial role in the health care debate, giving abortion opponents a voice in the process even as GOPers signal they have little interest in, and little hope of, influencing the bill that comes out of the Senate. Nelson said Thursday he will filibuster any health care bill without Stupak amendment-like language.

Dems had a difficult time nailing down Nelson's vote to simply begin the debate -- he announced his support only the day before the 11/23 vote. Forget the public option for a moment and recall that abortion rights groups play a big role in the Dem coalition; the movement is not as strong as the anti-abortion rights groups are on the GOP side, but they can run just as many primary challengers, creating cross pressures for senators who want a health care bill at virtually any cost (See, for example, an impending primary between an EMILY's List-backed candidate and a stronger Dem who is not as in favor of abortion rights in NH-02).

By Reid Wilson

With the mantle of responsibility resting squarely upon their shoulders, Dems have begun to engage in their own increasingly public intraparty battles. But while GOPers love seeing Dems attack each other, the mood among Dem strategists remains remarkably sanguine.

That doesn't mean Dems are getting along. As Pres. Obama advances legislative and political goals on three fronts -- the war in Afghanistan, health care reform and a new jobs bill -- he has run into resistance from fellow Dems almost as much as from GOPers.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is critical of some elements of Obama's plan for Afghanistan, but it was flat-out opposition from Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) and many House liberals that forced Obama to include the beginnings of an exit strategy in his speech this week. Even after Obama announced the strategy, Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA) made an unflattering comparison to Vietnam and Rep. Jack Murtha (D) confessed to a "nervous" feeling.

In Congress, Obama and Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid have had to placate 4 centrist Dems to even begin debate on health care legislation. And pressure from Dems concerned they have not done enough to create jobs is the impetus behind today's jobs summit at the WH.

The GOP is beginning to portray Dem in-fighting as serious schisms within a party that is starting to look afraid of its own shadow. Dems, though, are not worried -- yet.

"I think the polling is clear that our party is much more diverse in every way than the GOP. We have liberals, moderates, conservatives. We have racial, ethnic and geographic diversity," said Peter Giangreco, a veteran Dem consultant. He called Dems "a party of herded cats."

"You take a look at our umbrella, and this is a really interesting Democratic caucus that has a lot of different constituencies. The fact that we hold together like we do is amazing," added John Anzalone, a pollster who worked on Obama's WH bid. Anzalone pointed out that Obama's favorables are still in the high 80s among Dems, indicating that the base hasn't left him so far.

Meanwhile, the admin sees divisons within the Dem Party much differently than schisms within the GOP. A senior admin official contrasted differences of policy between Dems with the GOP's new-found penchant for purity tests, tea parties and internecine bloodletting.

While the admin official admitted to deep differences on Afghanistan and health care specifics, House and Senate strategists said the party has not been impacted by those differences yet. Indeed, while dozens of Dems have voted against key legislative priorities, including cap and trade, the stimulus and health care, each bill has passed the House.

By Eliza Krigman

A yacht owned by WH crasher Tareq Salahi never showed up for a charity event in Spring '07, according to sources who organized the soiree. Would-be guests of the Oasis Winery Yacht paid $50, which went to the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, for the riverside experience they never got to enjoy.

After waiting along the Georgetown waterfront for an estimated 45 minutes, Oasis Winery claimed the boat was having mechanical difficulties and wasn't going to show. The man behind the event had to send out an apology email to attendees and recalls having to refund their money.

Through a silent auction, Samantha Luterman won an eight-person wine tasting aboard the yacht for $150. Despite making multiple attempts to contact Oasis Winery for reimbursement, Luterman never heard back from them. Since the money had gone straight to the charity, she wrote it off as a sunk cost.

This is more bad news for the couple whose past is riddled with lawsuits and dishonesty. The Washington Post reported today that Michaele Salahi was never a Redskins' cheerleader, despite her claim to the contrary.

By Reid Wilson

Ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) will challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D) next year, he announced on his website today.

"Over the next eleven months, I'll be visiting with you all over Indiana and sharing with you my vision for Indiana and America. I believe that perilous times are in our future if we do not change course NOW," Hostettler wrote. "I also believe that we CAN make that change of course if we band together. In that spirit I am asking for your support as I pursue the office of United States Senator from our great state of Indiana."

Roll Call first reported Hostettler's plans.

Hostettler served 6 terms in Congress, winning election in '94. He was defeated by a two-to-one margin in '06 by Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D).

Hostettler's path against Bayh will be seriously uphill. Bayh has been elected five times statewide -- once as Sec/State, twice as GOV and twice as a senator. Bayh considered running for Pres. in '08 and spent years stockpiling money; he has $12.7M in the bank.

The GOPer will not be able to compete with Bayh's money. Hostettler was never a strong fundraiser. He raised and spent $586K in '06, even as Ellsworth spent three times as much.

But Hostettler is the best candidate GOPers could hope for against an incumbent they never planned to seriously contest. So far, Bayh faces state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) and two minor candidates.

National Journal's Alexis Simendinger caught up with Bayh today and asked him about Hostettler's run.

Q: "What do you think of his announcement?"

Bayh: "I don't want to meddle in the other party's primary. I'll leave that up to them."

Q. "Do you have any concerns?"

Bayh: "No, I'm going to focus on doing my job here, trying to create jobs, get the deficit down, hopefully improve health care. And if I do that, the politics will work itself out. I think he's the fourth announced candidate in the other party, so I don't intended to be distracted by all that. I have a day job that people expect me to do, and I'm going to focus on that."

By Steven Shepard

As Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) considers her posture on upcoming Senate health care votes, a new poll out today conducted for the liberal blog DailyKos.com shows that her electoral interests may be pulling her in different directions.

Lincoln has a one-point lead, 42%-41%, over state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), down from a seven-point advantage in Sept. She also has a small lead over Safe Foods Corp CEO Curtis Coleman (R), 44%-39%, but leads GOP also-rans Tom Cox (45%-31%) and Kim Hendren (46%-30%) by healthier margins.

But the Kos poll, conducted 11/30-12/02 by Research 2000, also tests the possibility of a primary challenge from LG Bill Halter (D). While it seems that Halter has work to do to broaden his statewide profile, less than half of AR Dems are sold on Lincoln as their party's nominee in '10.

In the poll, Lincoln holds a 42%-26% advantage over Halter among Dem primary LVs. When asked how they would vote if Lincoln joined a GOP-led filibuster of the Dems' health-care reform effort in the Senate, the gap narrowed to 37%-27%.

The Dem defectors over health care wouldn't flock to Halter, yet. But Halter, elected three years ago, recently championed the opening of an alternative, free health clinic for the uninsured in Little Rock, appearing on MSNBC's "Countdown" to trumpet the effort.

He was asked in that TV appearance about running against Lincoln and dodged the question.

"I certainly appreciate the hopes that a lot of people have expressed for me," Halter told guest host Lawrence O'Donnell. "But I want to focus on what we're doing on Saturday. This is not about politics. It's certainly not about my political future."

A Halter candidacy has limitations for Dems, however. Nearly 40% of AR LVs don't have an opinion of Halter. And when matched up in a general election, the Kos poll shows Halter losing to Baker (42-34%) and Coleman (40-35%), but beating Cox (36-32%) and Hendren (36-31).

Of course, Halter for now is only running for re-election as LG. And Lincoln likely took note of polling data that shows widespread opposition to the Dem health-care reform plan in her state.

By Rachelle Douillard-Proulx

During this morning's broadcast of "Morning Joe," MSNBC's Willie Geist had a (lighthearted) bone to pick with Mike Barnicle over sarcastic comments the latter made during the show's Wednesday broadcast. To highlight the annual lighting of the Christmas tree in Rockefeller Center that took place last night, Geist reported live from the courtyard.

Barnicle, following Geist's report from in front of the hulking tree: "I finally realized what I want for Christmas, Willie. I would like to see that tree fall right on you right now."

Geist reported this morning on the show that he had received many emails regarding Barnicle's comments, and demanded an apology.

Geist: "He said he wanted the tree to fall on me. I've received a number of emails, including from members of my own family, attacking Mike Barnicle. Mike Barnicle, what say you, sir?"

Barnicle, reading from newspaper coverage of the statement golfer Tiger Woods released in light of his own recent controversy: "Willie, and all of you people out there, let me just say, I have let my family down, and I regret those transgressions with all my heart. I have not been true to my values in that statement yesterday."

Continued Barnicle: "And I'm far short of perfect. I am dealing with my behavior, and personal failings, behind closed doors with Willie and my family. So, I beg your forgiveness."

Geist: "I forgive you for your personal failings. Thank you, Mike Barnicle. Apology accepted."

By Reid Wilson

IL state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) has launched the first ad of his Senate campaign a day after his opponent kicked off the TV wars.

The Giannoulias spot focuses on the candidate's efforts to save jobs at Hartmarx, a company that teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. Unlike ex-Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman's first ad, Giannoulias does not speak directly to the camera, and Giannoulias doesn't even mention his campaign for Senate.

The ad buy matches that of ex-Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D), the campaign tells The Hotline. It will run on broadcast TV around the state.

The primary is Feb. 2.

After months of little in the way of public activity, '02 nom. Katrina Swett (D) is making preparations to enter the race to succeed Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH), she tells Hotline OnCall.

"I'm moving pretty strongly in that direction. Very, very strongly," Swett said when asked whether she would run for the open seat. Swett is in DC Thursday for meetings focused on her race.

Swett, an atty and Ph.D., wife of ex-Rep. Dick Swett (D-NH) and daughter of the late Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA), has been busy working on the Lantos Foundation, which she founded after her father passed away last year. The group held a ceremony earlier this year with the Dalai Lama, and this week held a fundraiser in Concord, NH, with ex-Pres. Bill Clinton.

"To some degree, my professional responsibilities with the Lantos Foundation have crowded out a little bit of time I might otherwise have been focused on campaign stuff," Swett said. "I'm pretty gung-ho about turning my attention to other matters."

Swett hinted she is likely to get in the race after the New Year, when she said both her contest and the race for Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's (D) seat "are going to gel."

"After the first of the year, frankly in both Congressional districts and on both sides, there are going to be a number of pretty heavyweight people coming in," she said.

By Felicia Sonmez

A year after Pres. Obama won his state by 16 points over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), the deck is stacked against MI LG John Cherry (D).

MI leads the nation in unemployment, with a 14.3% jobless rate, and Cherry is a Dem LG running at a time when it's not especially helpful to belong to either an incumbent admin. or the POTUS' party. Recent polls show him trailing several GOPers -- including AG Mike Cox (R), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-02) and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R), all of whom are vying for their party's nod.

In an interview 12/2 at the DGA's annual DC gathering, Cherry acknowledged that the landscape he faces is a challenging one. But he said he's confident that his background and ideas will ensure that voters will view him independently from his boss, term-limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), and that ultimately, he is the candidate best equipped to put MI on a path toward diversifying its economy.

Running as a member of an incumbent admin. "is an issue," Cherry acknowledged, "because there is some fatigue -- as there would be, in the case of an economy that's in trouble."

But he said that while there's a tendency now for voters to view him as part of Granholm's admin., it's "natural, as the campaign goes forward," that he'll develop his own profile.

"In the end, it's making it as simple as this: Do I look like Jennifer Granholm?" Cherry said. "I come from a different background than her. I look different. I talk different. I have different interests. I have my own history. And part of it's telling my own story."

That story includes Cherry's background working on behalf of education and the environment. Cherry, who led the LG's Commission on Higher Education and Economic Growth and served as vice-chair of the Great Lakes Commission, said those two factors will be the "building blocks" in rebuilding MI's economy.

By Reid Wilson

In what may be his first appearance in a positive TV spot since the '04 elections, ex-VP Dick Cheney makes a cameo in a new ad for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX).

As Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry (R) battle over each others' conservative credentials, Cheney serves as an implicit alibi for Hutchison's bona fides. Cheney endorsed Hutchison last month, and the new ad uses footage from that rally.

"It's time for a conservative governor who doesn't just talk tough, but delivers," the ad says, over an image of Hutchison addressing a crowd while Cheney looks on.

It's the second ad Hutchison has run during her campaign. Perry is also on TV; he is still running his first ad, a positive spot that contrasts his record with problems in DC.

Perry will file for re-election today, the Dallas Morning News reports.

By Reid Wilson

The last time GOPers held Rep. Tim Bishop's (D-NY) Long Island seat, the party was firmly in the majority. Now, a new poll taken for his GOP foe shows Bishop with some weak initial numbers.

The McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll, taken for businessman Randy Altschuler (R), shows Bishop leading by a wide 46% to 26% margin. It's a big gap, but the fact that a 4-term incumbent who won in '08 with 58% is polling below 50% could be an indication of trouble ahead. Altschuler is barely known in the district, and if allowed to define himself, he has nowhere to go but up.

Bishop's eastern Long Island district is narrowly split between Dems and GOPers; Pres. Obama won the district by just 4 points in '08, and Pres. Bush won by 2K votes out of 300K cast in '04. Now, GOPers lead a generic ballot by a 38%-34% margin, according to the poll, and Obama has a weak 47% approval rating (44% disapprove).

Altschuler, on the other hand, has some built-in arguments to make. When given a choice between a GOPer to place a check on the Obama admin and a Dem to help pass the WH's agenda, voters choose the GOPer by a 52%-34% margin. Those are similar to numbers in other districts around the country, and it's going to be a key part of the GOP's argument next year.

GOPers are excited about Altschuler's prospects; he's already made the first level of the NRCC's Young Guns program. And Dems are taking him seriously as a candidate. The DCCC has already previewed attacks it will make against him, accusing him of shipping jobs overseas.

Bishop doesn't yet rank among the most vulnerable members facing re-election next year, but his is a district the GOP needs to win if they are going to begin contemplating a really big wave in '10. Waves are made bigger by good candidates, and if Altschuler catches on, Bishop could face a fight.

The poll, conducted for Altschuler's campaign, surveyed 300 LVs -- McLaughlin's standard sample size -- between 11/18-19. The margin of error was +/- 5.7%.

by Rachelle Douillard-Proulx & Abby Livingston

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's new strategy in Afghanistan and hosted Defense Sec. Robert Gates. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with Obama's new Afghanistan strategy and hosted Sec/State Hillary Clinton.

Obama admin. officials put on the full TV blitz to push the new strategy 12/2 p.m.

Clinton, on paying for the war: "We inherited a pretty bad hand but we've got some tough decisions ahead and we have to step up and do it. It breaks my heart. I know that when my husband left office, we had a balanced budget and a surplus. And now to look where we are, given everything that we've had to deal with, you know, it's not an easy position to be in" ("Evening News," CBS, 12/2).

Clinton, on the '11 drawdown: "If you reread what the president said last night, he very clearly said that he wants to see the transfer of authority begin in July 2011. It needs to be done in a responsible way that is conditions-based. He has said to us, he has said to others, we're not talking about falling off a cliff and beginning to bring troops home, but we think that this properly resourced mission now" ("Nightly News," NBC, 12/2).

Gates, on whether he's concerned American support for the war is beginning to slide: "Contrary to the impression of a lot of people around the world, the American people have never been very enthusiastic about war, beginning with the revolution. ... I think the president's firm decision, the clarity that he made a decision based on what he believed was important for the national security of the United States, rather than for any political or partisan purpose, the fact that they knew he was taking political risks by making this decision, I think the American people appreciate and follow strong leadership" ("NewsHour," PBS, 12/2).

After the jump, more Obama officials and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) fights back against the new policy

By Reid Wilson, Felicia Sonmez, Tim Sahd and Amy Walter

Good Thursday morning. We were not told it was so much warmer in DC than in WA, where your OnCall editor spent a few days.

Here is Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people who have the most on the line today:

PRES. OBAMA: Let's review -- despite GOP criticisms about the Summer '11 date to begin withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Obama is playing more defense against Dems than the GOP. Hawkish Dem Jane Harman (D-CA) is comparing a surge in Afghanistan to McGeorge Bundy's influence in increasing the American commitment in Vietnam, while Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA), head of the Defense Approps subcommittee, is "nervous" about the surge.

Despite GOP criticisms of the stimulus package, Obama's job summit, to be held today at the WH, is more geared toward placating nervous Dems who worry the stimulus didn't do enough to create jobs. And despite Sen. John McCain's motion to recommit, Obama has more to worry about from 4 Dem Sens who aren't on board with the public option than from GOPers, none of whom have signaled a willingness to vote for the bill despite closed-door negotiations with 2 centrists.

In all 3 cases, Obama's biggest problems are with Dems, not the GOP. Add to that last week's DailyKos poll, which showed GOPers much more likely to vote than Dems, and Obama's base is causing more headaches than the opposition. Obama isn't jeopardizing his own re-election chances -- yet -- but he's not doing Cong. Dems, and by extension his own agenda, any favors.

FED CHAIR BEN BERNANKE: This morning, Bernanke will testify before the Senate Banking Cmte, where he will face whithering criticism from those angry with his role in the financial crisis. Bernanke is up for reconfirmation, and while he is likely to enjoy the support of a majority of Sens, he has some committed enemies. Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) yesterday said Bernanke's job rating "would be zero minus F," and even supporters such as Banking Chair Chris Dodd (D-CT) have been muted in their praise.

by Abby Livingston

The GE/Comcast deal is official. Comcast will be purchasing NBCUniv. from General Electric. Per the Wall Street Journal, the cable giant "will put up" $6.5B "in cash" and $7.25B "in assets to buy 51%" -- a majority share -- of NBCUniv. This comes after "Vivendi says it will sell 20% stake in NBCU to GE for $5.8 billion."

Reports on 9/30 of a possible deal sent shock waves, on par with the AOL-Time Warner merger, through the media community, as a change of ownership of one of the largest media companies could dramatically change the business model of media consumption. GE, manufacturer of everything from light bulbs to airplanes, has been the quintessential corporate parent, often seemingly frustrated with the dramatic swings in profitability of an entertainment unit, where, for example, one hit movie (or lack thereof) can dramatically affect the bottom line.

Now NBCUniv. will be owned by a cable distributor, which uniquely values NBCUniv. for its content production, and there has been much speculation over how combining these two elements will change the media business model.

But the ink is not dry. The deal has to get through federal regulators, and there have been concerns from media watchdogs and competitors about the vertical integration of content production and distribution.

Comcast Chair/CEO Brian Roberts said in a press release, "This deal is a perfect fit for Comcast and will allow us to become a leader in the development and distribution of multiplatform 'anytime, anywhere' media that American consumers are demanding. In particular, NBCU's fast-growing, highly profitable cable networks are a great complement to our industry-leading distribution business. Today's announced transaction will increase our capabilities in content and cable networks."

GE CEO Jeff Immelt, from the same release: "NBCU has been a great business for GE over the past two decades. We have generated an average annual return of 11 percent, while expanding into cable, movies, parks and international media. We are reducing our ownership stake from 80 percent to 49 percent of a more valuable entity. By doing so, GE gets a good value for NBCU. This transaction will generate approximately $8 billion of cash at closing with an expected small after-tax gain. We have many opportunities to invest in our high-technology infrastructure businesses at attractive returns. I believe that the new NBCU will deliver value for both Comcast and GE in the future. We will give consumers and advertisers more choice and our cable and digital assets will be second to none. I am confident Brian Roberts and his team at Comcast will be great partners."

NBCUniv. pres./CEO Jeff Zucker will be CEO of the new joint venture and will report to Comcast COO Stephen Burke.