Can Dems Compete For Radanovich's Seat?
By Tim Sahd
So, Rep. George Radanovich (R-CA) has joined 12 other GOPers in opting not to run for re-election in '10. But do Dems have a shot at picking up this Central Valley seat?
So far, ex-actor Les Marsden (D) is the only Dem in the race; he's been running for months, and no other names surfaced in the hours following Radanovich's announcement. Marsden, despite earning acclaim as a stage and screen actor, has not been a strong fundraiser, and had just $7K CoH as of the end of Sept. Dems will need a higher profile challenger in order to put this seat seriously in play.
Radanovich's seat, with a Cook PVI of R+9, is one of only 11 CA CDs that went for John McCain in '08 when it gave him a slim 52-46% victory.
But the numbers suggest that close margin may be more indicative of Pres. Obama's strength in CA than any leftward tilt in this CD. In fact, McCain severely underperformed Pres. Bush both in the CD and statewide. In '00 and '04, Pres. Bush took 57 and 61% respectively in the CD; in '04, Bush carried 22 of CA's CDs, double McCain's take.
Registration numbers further the GOP's claim to the seat. They own a 7% registration advantage here; that's down just one percent from '02. The GOP has seen a sharper decline in most other CDs.
So while Dems can rightly claim that Obama's performance gives them hope in challenging several GOP CDs in CA, this is not the model seat for that argument. The '08 results may be the beginning of a leftward trend in the CD, but so far, they appear to be an anomaly.
The GOP's biggest foe may be themselves, as a crowded primary is beginning to unfold. State Sen. Jeff Denham (R) is running with Radanovich's support, but that -- along with the $1M he gathered during an aborted run for LG this year -- hasn't scared off an immediate primary challenge.
'02 CA-21 candidate/ex-Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson (R) -- who has long been pondering a Radanovich challenge -- officially jumped into the race on 12/29, according to the Fresno Bee. And Fresno Councilor Larry Westerlund (R) is also conferring with party leaders about a bid.
Meanwhile, sources say ex-CA 11 Rep. Richard Pombo (R) is also a potential open seat candidate. They say he's been urged by some to run, and hasn't ruled out a bid.
The GOP starts out with the advantage in the race over Radanovich's seat, but a crowded, messy primary, along with a stronger Dem challenger, may put the seat in play.
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