Can The GOP Finally Use Pelosi?
By Reid Wilson
But after years of frustration, some wonder whether putting Pelosi front and center will actually work.
Pelosi is, arguably, better known by the electorate than any speaker in American history, with the possible exception of Newt Gingrich. But the fact that 83% of Americans have an opinion of her, according to the latest GWU/Battleground poll, is not a good thing; of those who have an opinion, just 30% see her favorably, while 53% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 44% say their opinion of her is "strongly" unfavorable.
"If you're a Dem in a swing district who has cast votes with Pelosi on cap-and-trade and health care, that's a serious problem," GOP pollster Jon McHenry said in an email. "As long as Pres. Obama retains a net favorable rating in a district, you don't want to tie the Dems to him, so Pelosi is kind of an obvious choice."
The GOP has tried to tie Dem candidates to Pelosi in the past. Just this year, the NRCC ran ads linking Reps. Scott Murphy (D) and Bill Owens (D) to Pelosi, but both won special elections to fill open seats. In fact, the NRCC has used Pelosi and the specter of San Francisco liberalism in ads hitting Dems in '06 and '08, to little impact.
But that has not deterred GOPers from trying again, and some independent observers say they could succeed this time. Already, GOPers have made a concerted effort to tie Dems in conservative-leaning districts to unpopular votes Dems have had to take this year, smearing the "Pelosi agenda."
"Pelosi will hurt the Dems badly in marginal districts," said Brad Coker, the independent pollster at Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "Remember, most of their recent gains have been in more middle-to-conservative districts that had elected Republicans on a fairly frequent basis. As Speaker, it is pretty clear to the average voter that Pelosi has lurched the party back to the left -- not to the middle as most of the freshman classes of 2006 and 2008 had promised their voters back home."
On a district-by-district basis, Pelosi can be an effective substitute for the GOP, while at a national level the party will by necessity focus on Obama, said Chris Perkins, a GOP pollster with Wilson Research Strategies.
"While Pelosi and her policies will be of good use in a district-by-district case, the Democrats national agenda will be pushed by President Obama. He is the President and has the bully pulpit," Perkins said. "Based on past trends, the House Republicans best strategy would be to tie both Obama and Pelosi together. The more they can take advantage of the president's downward-moving approval rating, the more Pelosi's policies look radical to the American people from a district-by-district perspective."
Dem strategists acknowledge Pelosi's unpopularity, but they disagree that it will be a factor. Dems say they know from experience that a House speaker won't be an effective cudgel; in the late '90s, Dems tried to tie Gingrich to his GOP colleagues, to little effect.
"She is divisive, and Republicans certainly do not like her. But when it comes to swing voters, not enough know who she is to make much of a difference. Republicans will likely use her to excite their base, I think there is little question about that. But as for swing voters, Pelosi will not be the deciding point," said Andrew Myers, a Dem pollster. "Pelosi is not even close to the club that George W. Bush was."
Lisa Grove, a Dem pollster based in Portland, OR, says her party is not at risk of being tagged as Pelosi clones, but she admitted she fears the "big spender" label.
"Democrats need to talk about deficit reduction and find common sense solutions to make government more efficient or next year will be tough," Grove said. "We neglect this message and policy flank to our peril."
Others said they don't believe Pelosi will be a factor in districts in which incumbents spend money defining themselves. If a national wave happens, Dems attached to Pelosi in voters' minds may be quickly swept away, but those who define themselves and their opponents could weather the storm.
Still, Dems found out the hard way that equating a Speaker with House GOPers doesn't always go far, but using Pres. Bush was a winning angle. If GOPers are forced to use Pelosi over the more popular Pres. Obama, they can only hope for a different outcome.
I guess I agree that trying to tie Obama to Pelosi in 2012 probably won't work. At least not with Independents which is the only group that matters. However, I DO think that using Pelosi in the 2010 congressional races could be effective. Imagine all those Democrats that are in conservative districts (i.e. that voted for McCain in 2008)...linking them at the hip with the utterly despised Pelosi and her Health Care bill, Cap & Trade, etc. I think that might work quite well.
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