Dems Getting Antsy With Retirements
By Reid Wilson
With 3 Dems announcing their retirements in the first weeks of Dec., some party strategists are starting to worry that a wave of retirements could threaten their hold on the House.
"It's time for Democrats to be concerned," said ex-Rep. Martin Frost (D-TX), a former DCCC chair. "You've only had 3 of these retirements now, but this tends to be like the flu, it tends to be contagious. Once your contemporaries start announcing their retirements, you start rethinking your decision."
On Wednesday, Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) became the latest member to announce he will not run for re-election. Since Thanksgiving, Reps. Dennis Moore (D-KS) and John Tanner (D-TN) have also said they will step aside. And rumors of new impending retirements crop up every day.
With filing deadlines approaching in several states, members will take the next month to talk with their families and assess their future.
"The key months are January, February and March, because that's the lead up to the filing deadlines," Frost said. "They need to be very vigilant in the next couple of months."
The decisions members will make are likely to have DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen sweating, though he has what he calls an "early warning system" to convince members to stick around longer.
In '98, when Dems uncharacteristically picked up seats in a midterm election, Frost instituted a "buddy system," in which one member was assigned to keep watch over a colleague rumored to be considering retirement. This year, Van Hollen's effort is said to include House Dem leaders, committee chairs, regional and ideological allies which Dems hope will give them more influence over a wavering incumbent.
So far, Dems have strong chances in all 3 seats left vacant. Several prominent candidates are considering bids for Moore's Kansas City-based seat. Dems have already secured a prominent state sen. to run for Tanner's seat. And the party has plenty of options in the heart of Baird's southwest WA district.
But GOPers will have better chances in the open seats than they would have against Moore, Baird and Tanner. The party is excited about their candidate running for Tanner's seat, the NRCC signaled it is excited for a state rep. running to succeed Baird, and the GOP has no shortage of candidates eager to take a shot at Moore's seat.
Along with the 3 open seats, Frost warned that if more incumbents join the three retirees, it could have a serious negative impact on the Dem majority.
"Clearly, 3 retirements aren't a big deal. But if you were to have 10 or 15 members from swing districts retire, that is a big deal," he said.