Friday's Starting Lineup

By Reid Wilson and John Mercurio

Good Friday morning. We are happy to report that holiday party season is in full swing.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup for Dec. 4, the people and numbers that matter today:

JOBS NUMBERS: A government report out this morning is expected to show job losses slowing a day after the WH held a major jobs summit. Analysts expect the economy to have shed about 100,000 non-farm jobs in Nov., down from 190,000 the month before, and stock futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading.

But the fact remains that jobs will be lost, and Cong. GOPers already have their press releases written. It has been, and will be, a constant theme going into next year: With unemployment above 10% and not expected to dip below that mark for months, GOPers are asking why jobs are still being lost after a $787B stimulus package.

Given polls that show most voters overwhelmingly say the economy is their top concern, well above health care, the election will be fought on a jobs terrain. A new skirmish will erupt today when the report is issued at 8:30 a.m.

Updated: A big win for the WH today, as unemployment actually falls from 10.2% to 10%. Non-farm payrolls fall by an unexpectedly low 11,000 in Nov.

LABOR SEC. HILDA SOLIS: Solis headed yesterday's job summit, but she has (so far) played a relatively low-profile role in the administration's overall jobs campaign. Considering the aforementioned polls, shouldn't the Labor secretary be playing as prominent a role as, say, Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner or HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebelius has (respectively) throughout the recession and health care debate? Solis is also a valuable spokeswoman who can appeal to Hispanic voters in key states. So ... where is she?

SEN. BEN NELSON: The NE Dem has played a crucial role in the health care debate, giving abortion opponents a voice in the process even as GOPers signal they have little interest in, and little hope of, influencing the bill that comes out of the Senate. Nelson said Thursday he will filibuster any health care bill without Stupak amendment-like language.

Dems had a difficult time nailing down Nelson's vote to simply begin the debate -- he announced his support only the day before the 11/23 vote. Forget the public option for a moment and recall that abortion rights groups play a big role in the Dem coalition; the movement is not as strong as the anti-abortion rights groups are on the GOP side, but they can run just as many primary challengers, creating cross pressures for senators who want a health care bill at virtually any cost (See, for example, an impending primary between an EMILY's List-backed candidate and a stronger Dem who is not as in favor of abortion rights in NH-02).

Nelson's amendment, we're told, is likely to come up for a Sunday vote as Dems work through the weekend on several amendments.

BIRTHERS: Talk to any GOP strategist in DC and two things will make them roll their eyes: Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and Birthers, the group that believes Pres. Obama was born in another country. Those two merged yesterday when Palin told a conservative radio host that questions about Obama's birth certificate are "fair."

"I think the public rightfully is still making it an issue. I don't have a problem with that. I don't know if I would have to bother to make it an issue, because I think that members of the electorate still want answers," Palin said on Rusty Humphries' show.

We guarantee the NRCC, the NRSC and the RNC would much rather talk about the unemployment reports coming out this morning. And we'd bet heavily that most members sticking around the Capitol will be asked, again, what they think of Palin and the birther movement. Being knocked off-message is bad, but being forced to respond to the birthers is something GOPers very much don't want.