GOP Poll Shows Potential Opportunity Against Bishop
By Reid Wilson
The last time GOPers held Rep. Tim Bishop's (D-NY) Long Island seat, the party was firmly in the majority. Now, a new poll taken for his GOP foe shows Bishop with some weak initial numbers.
The McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll, taken for businessman Randy Altschuler (R), shows Bishop leading by a wide 46% to 26% margin. It's a big gap, but the fact that a 4-term incumbent who won in '08 with 58% is polling below 50% could be an indication of trouble ahead. Altschuler is barely known in the district, and if allowed to define himself, he has nowhere to go but up.
Bishop's eastern Long Island district is narrowly split between Dems and GOPers; Pres. Obama won the district by just 4 points in '08, and Pres. Bush won by 2K votes out of 300K cast in '04. Now, GOPers lead a generic ballot by a 38%-34% margin, according to the poll, and Obama has a weak 47% approval rating (44% disapprove).
Altschuler, on the other hand, has some built-in arguments to make. When given a choice between a GOPer to place a check on the Obama admin and a Dem to help pass the WH's agenda, voters choose the GOPer by a 52%-34% margin. Those are similar to numbers in other districts around the country, and it's going to be a key part of the GOP's argument next year.
GOPers are excited about Altschuler's prospects; he's already made the first level of the NRCC's Young Guns program. And Dems are taking him seriously as a candidate. The DCCC has already previewed attacks it will make against him, accusing him of shipping jobs overseas.
Bishop doesn't yet rank among the most vulnerable members facing re-election next year, but his is a district the GOP needs to win if they are going to begin contemplating a really big wave in '10. Waves are made bigger by good candidates, and if Altschuler catches on, Bishop could face a fight.
The poll, conducted for Altschuler's campaign, surveyed 300 LVs -- McLaughlin's standard sample size -- between 11/18-19. The margin of error was +/- 5.7%.
You couldn't have provided better news if you had told me I won the lottery. Randy Altschuler will undoubtedly beat Tim Bishop. There is a vast and growing movement to unseat the elitest incumbent.
You couldn't have provided better news if you had told me I won the lottery. Randy Altschuler will undoubtedly beat Tim Bishop. There is a vast and growing movement to unseat the elitest incumbent.
I agree, Bishop must be unseated.
Bishop is a decent hard working guy who does a great job
Congressman Bishop has shown a great concern for the welfare of the working men and women in his district and our state. Randy Altshuler has made his fortune shipping jobs overseas. Great for the few rich CEOs and Boards that seem to thrive on putting people out of work. Bad for the economy, bad for the families put out of work. I just hope he doesn't try to sell usw a story about how he's worried about the folks who are unemployed, how its time to put them back to work, and time to get the economy rolling again. He never should have put them out on the streets in the first place. We need to keep people like Congressman Bishop in office to allow them to keep on providing good government.
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Bishop will have a lot of Pelosi astroturf coming after him.
This is great news about Mr. Altschuler running as Mr. Bishop has voted 97% on all of Pelosi's bills and most of all has voted to raise our taxes with his yes vote on HCR bill. I am tired of his votes all leading to big government take over and bail outs and he has fallen right in line with Obama and Pelosi's socialistic views. Mr. Bishop didn't listen to his district as I attended a town hall meeting where 90% of the people that attended where against HCR. Mr. Bishop is one of the many congressman/Senators that has to go. America is now fed up with the dirty politics of the democrats. The American people are going to start taking back this country in 2010 up to 2012 when we get that lying non transparent President out of office. Mr. Altschuler has my vote already and is well on his way to victory.