GOP Pushing Dems To Retire
By Reid Wilson
Two Dem retirements in competitive districts have given GOPers new hopes that a wave of open seats can hand them new opportunities. Now, GOP strategists are putting extra pressure on more than a dozen Dem lawmakers, hoping to convince them to retire rather than face difficult re-elections.
An informal list of 17 members the NRCC believes can be convinced to step down, privately called the "Dem Retirement Assault List," makes clear the party needs Dem incumbents to step aside if they have hopes of taking back the majority. The NRCC has taken pains to attack those lawmakers in recent weeks.
McCain narrowly won seats held by Reps. John Spratt (D-SC), Allen Boyd (D-FL), Vic Snyder (D-AR), Baron Hill (D-IN), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Tim Holden (D-PA) and Collin Peterson (D-MN).
The NRCC has also begun targeting Reps. Sanford Bishop (D-GA), Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) and Leonard Boswell (D-IA), three members who already have credible opponents but who occupy seats Pres. Obama won in '08.
"Applying constant pressure in combination with the looming threat of a credible challenge is what should make every single one of these guys think twice," said a GOP strategist involved in targeting the Dems.
The pressure has largely come from press releases hammering the incumbents, but the NRCC has signaled it will put at least a little money behind the effort. Last month, the NRCC launched ads against Pomeroy, Snyder and Spratt. Although the ad buys were tiny -- the GOP spent a total of just $6,300 for a few spots on Fox News in all three districts -- they attracted earned media as well.
Already, Reps. John Tanner (D-TN) and Dennis Moore (D-KS) have said they will not run for re-election next year. Though Dems have already picked up a good recruit in Tanner's seat and have no shortage of strong candidates eying Moore's, the GOP will make a push to pick up both districts.
DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer dismissed the GOP's pressure strategy, arguing that his rivals don't have the money or the energy to apply any.
"The NRCC has only 4 million cash on hand and just committed political malfeasance in the special election in NY-23, where they threw away nearly a million dollars on a candidate that dropped out and fueled a Republican Civil War in the process," he said in an email.
But Dems are aware they have a potential problem with retiring incumbents. In '94, the GOP picked up 22 seats from Dems who decided not to run again. As Charlie Cook writes today, GOPers won 71% of Dem open seats that year; in '06, Dems won 38% of GOP-held open seats.
DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has what he calls an "early warning system" aimed at identifying members who are considering stepping down and talking them into one more term. So far, the system has worked.
Aside from Tanner and Moore, just 6 Dems have decided to pass on another term; all 6 are running for higher office. Only seats held by Reps. Joe Sestak (D-PA), Charlie Melancon (D-LA) and Paul Hodes (D-NH) give GOPers opportunities for pickups. At this point last cycle, a Dem aide points out, there were 18 GOPers who had said they would not run for re-election.
But members frequently use the Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks as the time to decide whether to retire, filling Dec. and Jan. with announcements about their future. Already, rumors are flying that various members have decided not to run again. That adds up to 2 very long months ahead for Van Hollen and company.
Tim Holden retire? He has the best job he's ever had -- the best job he will EVER have -- and he'll desperately hold onto it by whatever means necessary until he's kicked out by voters.
Money is no object, either. He's owned by so many powerful interest groups, starting with unions and the farm lobby, that he'll have millions to fund his campaign if he needs it.
A man of Holden's significant limitations has no other prospects that will keep him feeling important and and his wife happy.
The people in district 8 in PA are mad as hell at Patrick Murphy. If the GOP were smart they would try to flip this seat.
Pete Sessions is my congressman and he was given many free speech opportunities in 2008 without disruption in his election. Are you running for re-lection next November Pete?
Its time to retire the Angry White Only Party!
Republicans Retire or we're going to Retire all of to the White Only Town of Wasilla, Ak where your vested sex for sale quitter Gov lives(part time only)
The Republicans have targeted Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall for years. Somehow they always get voted backin.
I would put Suzanne Kosmos D-FL on that list. Her district skews older and people are ticked off with her lock step votes. Especially with Healthcare.
basically any district with an average IQ of less than 70 is GOP
We want to kick out Both our Republican/Demacrate Senators in Nebr. Mccain should have been gone years ago, as should Byrd. It seems to me it is not only Demacrates, but republicans to. Republicans screwed up in NY 23rd district race, an if they keep up their stupidy they will certainly lose more seats, an not gain.
GOP get a grip. The people tire of you.
Those "Dems" are traitorous Blue Dogs. I wish the Republicans God-speed on getting Collin Peterson and Mike Ross out of Congress forever.
The credibility of this article is completely undermined by the statement that Loretta Sanchez has a credible opponent. Do some research, folks. I live in her district, and there is not a snowball's chance in hell that Loretta Sanchez will be unseated. She will win by a relaxed margin, and is very popular in her district. The GOP's cynical approach against her has been to run latino women against her, and it never works, or even comes close to working. The writer should do some credible research, and then expose the NRCC's propaganda as just that - propaganda.
Dems need to turn things around. Go after Michele Bachmann and Steve King. Start by supporting Mike Denklau against King:
http://www.denklauforcongress.com/about.html
Republican thugs have been angry for years at Loretta Sanchez, ever since she unseated "B1" Bob Dornan. Dornan was mentally unstable and an embarrassment to an affluent district that had become more Hispanic.
If you want to know what the GOP thinks of Hispanics, just ask Lou "The Liar" Dobbs. He has plenty of time to answer, now that he's unemployed.
Jersey Bob,
It's ironic that you attribute to the GOP what Lou Dobbs thinks, considering he's considering running as an independent.
Most Republicans are not Lou Dobbs.
When are people going to realize that we were all taught in school that the US was the best country in the world and that is why we feel we are the best country. Let's compare the US to Canada, France, and Germany:
Number of bankruptcies in 2008 in US due to medical expenses: over 650K
Number of bankruptcies in 2008 in all three countries combined due to medical expenses: ZERO
Number of murders in the US: over 11K
Number of murders in all three other countries: under 2K (vastly unproportionate)
US quality of healthcare ranking in the world: 37th
France - 1st, Germany -top five, Canada 22nd
Cost: US first by wide margin.
US has unbelieveably more debt, more casualties in wars, more poverty, and more millionaires and billionaires telling poor people that this is the greatest country in the world.
The US is Great??? Compared to what? The middle East?
THANK YOU MATT V, I COULDN'T HAVE SAID IT BETTER MYSELF!
WHERE WERE ALL THESE THUGS WHEN BUSH WAS REDISTRIBUTING 80% OF THE WEALTH TO 2% OF THE POPULATION, HIS CRONIES!
YOU PEOPLE THAT BELIEVE THE THUGS ARE A BUNCH OF UNEDUCATED IDIOTS!
I can't believe that the GOP would stoop to tricks such as trying to pressure people out of their seat before they are ready to go. If you can't win the seat any other way than that, then you damn well don't deserve it!
No surprise the GOP would have a death list.
It is so sad that you guys are ruining this country with your dangerous progressive ideas. The Dems/Progs are trying to remake this country into something that no one will recognize. maybe you will wake up one day and see what you have done. You all must hate this country so much.
Ignor the republicans. They are mostly old, rich, white, fundamentalist racists. The GOP has reduced itself to a southern regional gathering that supports white fundamentalists and any business that will send it money.
These Rethuglicans are something else. They brought this country to the brink of disaster and want to try it again! The IQ comment above is so apt. Knuckle dragging Neanderthals.
Chris Van Hollen should tell Pete Sessions the same thing Rep. Alan Grayson told Dickie Cheney.....STFU!
First, Frank Pallone should be on that hit list. He's done little but help wreck NJ and totally supports legislation that will bankrupt his constituents.
Second, the quality of comments from so-called "progressives" reveals the ignorance, immaturity, nastiness and sheer denial of reality of the contemporary left. Abusive, racist, name-calling comments do NOT qualify as reasoned, intelligent discussion.
People are seeing through the likes of grf67, Gallant1, cyril et al. Thanks to their ilk, we know how define the shallow, neurotic and self-centered essense that is the left.
MarieL, YES, we ARE trying to change the country... TO MAKE IT BETTER!!! We LOVE this country far more than YOU! We weep over what Bush had done to OUR country and economy.
You are truly delusional if you think we HATE this country! We pray that YOU wake up and see that we have only the best intentions for ALL Americans and NOT just the top 1%!
WAKE UP before the Republicans take this country over a cliff!
Thank you, Arlis, for proving my point that contemporary "progressives" have the intellectual and emotional maturity of a 14 year old.
@ Gary in NJ: I was ready to pass over this whole thread, but then I get to your condemnation of people using the anonymity of the internet to launch prejudicial, ad hominem attacks against diverse bodies of people, and proceed to do the same in response. Let's call me an independent with a pretty wide prog stripe.
I recognize that the economic and moral bankruptcy we see today has little to do with traditional parties. I consider it an insidious side effect of the past 20-something years of pie in the sky, "trickle down" theology. I blame the intrinsically neo-con undercurrent of each president since Reagan. I'm not sure if Obama's a duck yet, but he seems to be able to quack like one. He's followed their legacy of shoveling billions of $'s into the pockets of an elite few, and special interests at the expense of John Q. Taxpayer (which we can actually blame Clinton for, allowing corporations to reach "too big to fail" status.) I think Obama is still capable of doing the kind of good for this country George W. Bush did for the continent of Africa, and country of Saudi Arabia combined.
What we do need is two things to correct this streak. 1st: Campaign finance switched to a publicly funded system, which would basically be the tax equivalent of checking the "donate two dollars to campaign fund" box on your income tax each year. 2nd: Lobbies need to be reformed to be impartial to monetary influence, and be based purely on morals and ethics. These days it seems we place a greater value in our rapidly deteriorating currency than our humanity.
Next time you wish to convey a message of moral superiority, it helps not to sink to the same level.
As for Loretta Sanchez, the media really should look at her lobbying relationships. There is a blog that has done a pretty good job of detailing it here:
http://latinopoliticsblog.com/2009/06/02/the-making-of-the-%E2%80%9Cloretta-sanchez-scandal%E2%80%9D/
http://latinopoliticsblog.com/2009/12/13/congresswoman-loretta-sanchez-the-lobbyists/
I disagree that Republicans are low IQ people, myself being a highly educated high IQ Republican.If you look at who caused this mess you will see that the list of donations these individuals made looks like a who's who of the Democrat party.The Dems gave us the global warming scam, welfare which only exacerbated poverty,cap and trade-a job killer, abortion -baby killer,an anti-military sentiment which weakens us,an idiotic policy that lead to 9-11,a moral climate that leads to drug tolerance ,teachers unions which weaken us and shortchange our young people,uncontrollable taxation,such economic basket case states like Michigan and morally corrupt governments like New Jersey.All Democrats do is point fingers and look for scapegoats.If the founding fathers were alive today I believe they would be Republicans
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Actually. You will not prompt to me, where I can find more information on this question?
I cannot believe this is true!
Great idea, thanks for this tip!
Ignor the republicans. They are mostly old, rich, white, fundamentalist racists. The GOP has reduced itself to a southern regional gathering that supports white fundamentalists and any business that will send it money.
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Great idea, but will this work over the long run?
Damn, that sound's so easy if you think about it.
Sometimes it's really that simple, isn't it? I feel a little stupid for not thinking of this myself/earlier, though.