GOP To Retest McDonnell Strategy In NoVA Special

By Dan Roem

Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's (R) bigger than expected win this year has GOPers borrowing his campaign strategy, hoping it can lead them to another VA victory.

Ex-Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt (R) is following in McDonnell's footsteps, downplaying social conservatism and instead focusing on the economy, in a special state Senate contest against Del. Dave Marsden (D).

"I don't think there's any genius to Bob McDonnell's message," said Hunt mgr Tim Edson. "Steve's not running away from his views on his social issues at all. People know where Steve stands on the issues. He's not going to run away on it. But at the same time, Steve has a long record on fiscal issues and that's what people are going to talk about."

A Hunt win in a Jan. 12 special election to fill the vacancy created by AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli (R) will keep the Dem-controlled Senate's balance of power at 21-19. If one Dem from a conservative area resigns from his or her post before redistricting in 2011, that could create an opportunity for GOPers to win back control of the commonwealth's upper chamber; LG Bill Bolling (R) would break any tie votes.

That means both parties are spending a significant amount of time, and money, on the open seat as Dems try to retain their last foothold in the Commonwealth's state government just ahead of redistricting.

"Of course we are reminding the base in this battle of bases (that) it is very concerning what could happen with one-party rule," said Marsden mgr Mark Henson.

Having control of the state House of Delegates, which sports a 60-39-1 GOP advantage, as well as the gov's mansion would give GOPers complete control over redistricting, though
VA Dem political analyst Ben Tribbett said it is too early to tell how redistricting will affect the commonwealth's 11 congressional districts. The 2010 census is not likely to impact the number of seats the Old Dominion has.

When GOPers controlled the governorship and both chambers of the General Assembly in 2000, the lines were drawn in such a way that Dems stayed at an 8-3 disadvantage until '08, when now-Reps. Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello and Gerry Connolly all flipped GOP seats, giving Dems a 6-5 edge. That advantage will be put to the test next year; all 3 freshmen Dems, along with Rep. Rick Boucher (D), are GOP targets.

By flipping the state Senate back to GOPers, "the Democrats could be wiped out of power and rule for a generation," said Henson.

The race features the conservative Hunt facing off with an established Dem elected official. Each manager insisted his candidate is focused on bread-and-butter issues like tax relief and creating jobs.

"The key thing is, it's jobs, jobs, jobs. It's improving the economy. It's restoring our home values," said Henson.

However, each camp has a different method for conveying that message, and both have signaled a willingness to try to knock their opponents off message.

Hunt's camp is socking Marsden for championing tax increases as a delegate, particularly regarding a failed transportation bill, and then sending mailers saying he will fight to cut taxes. Hunt's mailers "promote lower taxes and less wasteful spending in Richmond," essentially providing him with a consolidated message.

Meanwhile, Marsden is painting his rival as a social conservative outside the mainstream, a line of attack Edson dismissed as missing the rest of Hunt's record.

"If they want to accuse him of being some sort of social conservative, that's fine, they're welcome to take that strategy, but he's got a long line of fighting for taxpayers," Edson said.

Though the 37th district is located entirely within Fairfax Co. -- its three magisterial districts include Sully (west), Braddock (center) and Springfield (east) -- it is one of the most conservative districts in Northern Virginia. While two other NOVA GOP state senators lost in 2007, then-Sen. Cuccinelli managed to eek out a win over school board member Janet Oleszek (D) by just over 100 votes.

Both camps are counting on turnout to be somewhere between 14%-18% based on recent special elections for Fairfax Board of County Supervisors Chairman and a single supervisor election. And both camps are touting their turnout strategies.

"We actually have had a strong response particularly from volunteers," said Edson, noting the camp knocked on 15,000 doors from Thanksgiving to through the Dec. 19 blizzard. "We recognize that it is a tough fight (but) that we are blessed with a tough candidate and a strong sense of support."

Meanwhile, Marsden is counting on Pres. Obama to get his voters to the polls. Obama's face adorns the cover of a mail piece sent to district voters over the caption, "You are the one thing keeping Virginia from becoming a one-party, Republican-dominated state."

The success or failure of those strategies, in the end, will determine the winner.

"With such a low turnout election, you better hope that you have a good list and you're going after the right people," said Corry Bliss, a veteran GOP campaign aide who managed an '09 contest against Marsden.