Monday's Starting Lineup

By Reid Wilson

Good Monday morning. We've averaged one House Dem retirement per week since Thanksgiving. Whose turn is it to make news this week?

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, bringing you the people who will make news today, before they make it:

SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN: Are Dems beginning to feel pessimistic on health care reform? They may not admit it, but GOPers are certainly feeling more confident they can slow down, if not stop, the measure being debated in the Senate. Last week's grand compromise looked like a step that could have united the Dem caucus, but that looks less likely now.

On Sunday, Lieberman and Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) both said they can't vote for the bill in its current form, thanks to a provision that would allow adults over 55 to buy in to Medicare. Lieberman has reportedly told Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid he cannot support the current bill, while Nelson characterized the deal as even worse than a public option, and he still has qualms with language dealing with abortion.

One smart GOPer brought up a good point to us this weekend: The bill needs 60 votes to pass, but it will not be stalled at 59. That is, once a Lieberman domino or a Nelson domino falls, others will jump ship too. Having a health care debate is bad for Dems electorally, and the longer it takes to move off the bill, the less time Dems will have to fix an increasing political problem.

REP. MARK KIRK: The centrist Kirk, a yes vote for TARP, cap and trade and a few other Dem-backed initiatives, has been moving to the right in the IL SEN primary, thanks to a challenge from real estate broker Patrick Hughes. Kirk leads by a wide margin -- a new poll conducted for the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV shows him leading the GOP primary with 41%, while 46% say they are undecided.

But Hughes' candidacy represents an emerging, and very real, challenge for GOPers: In an era of tea partiers, the centrist Kirk has to move to the right to win a primary. Those moves have already cost Kirk, as Planned Parenthood and environmental groups have repudiated him for recent statements. Conservative challengers to more centrist favorites in NH, FL, OH, CO and other states could make those favorites move to the right.

Dems have been hammering Kirk for his rightward move, and they stand ready to do the same for the more moderate candidates in other states. Kirk has a big lead, and one has to wonder whether he needed to leap so quickly to his right, given his lead in the primary. Other centrists should look to their own poll results to see just how much of a threat conservative candidates really are; it might make their general election mission of appealing to centrist voters all that much easier.

CITIGROUP: The banking giant will repay $20B in loans to the Treasury Dept., it said Monday, becoming the last major financial institution to hand over TARP funds. The federal government still has a 34% ownership stake that it will sell later this year. Bank of America finished repaying the $45B it received just last week.

The money will come as Citi execs, along with top representatives of 11 other Wall Street companies, head to the WH today for what economic advisor Larry Summers says will be a "serious talk." Pres. Obama took a tough and populist line in an interview broadcast on "60 Minutes" last night, criticizing the "fat-cat bankers." Obama's chat comes as the holiday season rolls around, and many of the executives present will have received, or are going to receive, year-end bonuses, generating a new round of outraged coverage.

But with banks paying back TARP funds, the WH's leverage is limited. His political fortunes may be tied to how willingly banking executives follow his lead, even without the strict government oversight the loans allowed.