Monday's Starting Lineup

By Reid Wilson

Good Monday morning. The Hotline has a snow day today, but neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor hail shall stop Hotline OnCall from bringing you the latest political news of the day. Check back around noon for a special spotlight, too!

Here's Monday's Starting Lineup, the people who are going to matter in the news today:

SEN. HARRY REID: The Senate Maj. Leader succeeded early this morning in winning approval for his manager's amendment, finalizing health care legislation that will come out of the upper chamber. With Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) securing $100M for his home state (The "Cornhusker Kickback" to GOPers), Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) getting $300M for hers (The "Louisiana Purchase") and industry groups finding enough in the bill to be happy with, it appears the GOP will not be able to stop the bill.

That doesn't mean they won't try, and weekend maneuvers by some in Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-MI) office suggest they won't be alone. But the Senate is on track to take its final vote on health care on Christmas Eve, keeping Dems on track to return to a vote on a conference bill before Pres. Obama gives his first State of the Union address.

Once the drive to health care reform is over, House Dem leaders have told their foot soldiers they will not take up controversial legislation unless the Senate brings it up first. Reid, facing the fight of his electoral life, has never been shy about bringing up legislation that could be unpopular, but at some point he needs to get home if he's going to have any chance at keeping his job.

FUNDRAISING NUMBERS: 10 days from now, campaigns around the country will take stock of their financial position. The end of the 4th quarter will separate some wannabes from real contenders, so keep an eye on campaigns who don't leak their fundraising numbers early. Fundraising consultants will push their clients extra hard over the next week and a half, but raising money during the holidays is the toughest time to do so.

We're going to be closely watching Reps. Vic Snyder (D-AR), Leonard Boswell (D-IA) and Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), among others. Snyder and Boswell could face good GOP rivals, while Shea-Porter already does. The 3 have below-average bank balances, and the absence of a high-speed fundraising push could give rise to retirement rumors for Snyder and Boswell, and to an extra boost to Manchester, NH, Mayor Frank Guinta's campaign.

Still, not all is well on the GOP side either. We've heard rumblings from folks thinking about challenging Guinta, given his less-than-stellar fundraising, while a number of other candidates who were once highly-touted are fading as their fundraising totals come in under expectations.

FRESHMAN SENATORS: There was a time, not long ago, when younger members of the upper chamber spent their first several years keeping quiet, learning from their elders and not making a scene. Then-Sen. Hillary ClintoN won praise for spending her first term as a workhorse, keeping her head down and diving in to the intricate details of legislating.

Now, however, that appears to be the old way of doing business, as freshmen are playing a bigger role -- especially in the health care fight. Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) has made waves during public spats with senior colleagues Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and John Thune (R-SD), even as Thune himself seeks election to his 2nd term. Amid angry mobs shouting at their lawmakers, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), another freshman, became the poster child for how to effectively hold a town hall meeting.

Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) threatened to withhold his vote on health care once the public option was dropped. Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Jim Webb (D-VA), both serving their first terms, have emerged as key centrists. In the House, Dem leaders are encouraging their younger members to take the initiative in the legislative process. In the Senate, it looks like the younger members are forcing the gradual change on their leaders.