More Census Data: An Evergreen Scenario
By Reid Wilson
Though studies last year had good news for AZ and OR, new analysis of Census data now suggests the 2 states won't win as many new seats as earlier population trends seemed to indicate.
AZ will gain just 1 seat in reapportionment, while OR will miss out. Instead, it could be WA that picks up an additional seat.
According to the analysis, TX will still pick up 4 seats. AZ, FL, GA, NV, SC, UT and WA will all add new seats. Meanwhile, IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY and PA each lose a seat, while OH is the big loser, dropping 2 seats.
Here's another look, March Madness style, at the last states to pick up a seat and the first seats that will miss out on theirs. Like yesterday, we're adding the margin by which a state makes or misses that seat.
Seat # / State / District / Margin
Last In
431 / SC / 7th / 20,000
432 / WA / 10th / 30,000
433 / CA / 53rd / 120,000
434 / TX / 36th / 40,000
435 / MO / 9th / 10,000First Out
436 / MN / 8th / 10,000
437 / OR / 6th / 20,000
438 / AZ / 10th / 50,000
439 / FL / 27th / 150,000
440 / NC / 14th / 75,000
IL, OH, NJ, MA and LA will all fall just short of keeping their seats.
Of the states slated to lose seats, GOP incumbents are likely to be in the most trouble. IL, NJ, MN, NY and MA all have Dem-dominated legislatures. The OH legislature is controlled by GOPers, though if Gov. Ted Strickland (D) survives a tough re-election battle he will be able to exert some influence over the process.
PA has an open GOV race and a narrowly-divided legislature. IA has changed its redistricting process, putting the legislature and the governor on the sidelines.
This brings me to an idea:...
You honestly outdid yourself with this. I hope this keeps up