NV-03: What The Heck?
By Tim Sahd
In another sign that the environment has tilted away from Dems, a new poll out today shows Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) tied with ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (R) in the Las Vegas suburbs.
The Las Vegas Review-Journal survey, conducted 11/30-12/2, tested Titus, Heck and real estate developer Rob Lauer (R). The Mason-Dixon survey polled 300 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 6%.
General Election Matchup
Titus 40%
Heck 40Titus 48%
Lauer 32
This CD is tough enough for any incumbent to hold, as its transient population (it has grown by nearly 37% since '00) makes it tough for any sitting Rep. to gain traction. Indeed, it has grown nearly 37% since '00, and ex-Rep. Jon Porter (R), who had considerable campaign skills, never fully got a foothold here.
But this is the type of seat where Dems should still have an advantage. Pres. Obama easily won it with 55%, and Dems had been counting on the increased interest generated by the '08 WH primary to cement their hold on the CD. Indeed, the Third now has a clear, 33K Dem voter-registration advantage. Just two years ago, the parties were at parity in the CD.
The poll suggests that the recent health care bill has hurt Titus' position, as 47% of respondents say they disapproved of her vote, while only 41% approved of it.
The economy -- the Las Vegas area has been acutely impacted by the recession -- surely also plays a part in Titus' troubles. Voters blamed the GOP for the nation's economic woes in '08, and Titus took advantage of those feelings and aired TV ads blaming Porter's "failed economic policies" for the loss of jobs. If the economy doesn't turn around by '10, that same TV ad could be run against Titus, and it could have similar impacts.
But considering the tightening in the Congressional Generic ballot, and anecdotal polling evidence, Titus is surely not alone in feeling the heat. There's still 11 months to go until Election Day, but the early signs are very favorable for GOPers.