Specter, Toomey Tied In PA
By Reid WilsonSen. Arlen Specter (D) faces a tougher re-election race than he ever has, according to a series of new surveys in recent months.
The latest, a Quinnipiac Univ. survey conducted 12/8-14, polled 1,381 RVs for a margin of error of +/- 2.6%. Specter, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) were tested.
Primary Election Matchup Specter 53 (+9 from last, 10/1) Sestak 30 (+5)General Election Matchups
Specter 44 (+2)
Toomey 44 (+1)Toomey 40 (+2)
Sestak 35 (no change)
But though he is running better against Toomey and is outpacing Sestak, is Specter really the strongest candidate Dems could field? For one thing, Specter is outperforming Sestak largely because he is much better-known.
Consider the case of Southwestern PA: Just 4% in southwest PA don't know enough about Specter, who leads Toomey 49%-37% there. Meanwhile, 88% in the region don't know enough about Sestak -- who hails from the other side of the state -- and he trails Toomey 34%-32% there.
Statewide, 7 in 10 voters haven't heard enough about Sestak to have an opinion of him, including 52% in Philadelphia, 94% in the northwest part of the state and 78% in both Allegheny Co. and the central part of the state.
Meanwhile, 38% say Specter deserves to be re-elected, while 50% say he does not.
But Specter remains in great position in the Dem primary. He is more popular than Sestak and polls above 50%. Finally, though few people say Pres. Obama's endorsement will make them more likely to vote for Specter, 23% of Dems say that, which gives Specter room to grow among his adoptive party.