Tanner To Retire
By Reid Wilson and Tim Sahd
Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), a leading Blue Dog Dem, will retire at the end of his current term, Dem sources tell Hotline OnCall.
[UPDATE: Tanner released a statement late tonight confirming the news. "Betty Ann and I had considered retiring in 2007 at the end of the 110th Congress, were it not for the fact that our nation had the chance to elect an American as President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly at this critical moment in the war in Afghanistan," he wrote. "However, we believed we owed it to our country to stay and fulfill this term of office as NATO PA President. This mandate expires in November 2010, and therefore, we have made the decision not to seek re-election to Congress."]
Tanner has begun informing key House Dems of his decision -- one that will make his seat a prime pickup opportunity for GOPers. He has served 11 terms in Congress representing northwest TN, a district based around Jackson, Clarksville and Union City.
Tanner will be the second Dem to announce his retirement in recent days, following Rep. Dennis Moore's (D-KS) decision late last week to step down. Both men represent districts that voted heavily for Pres. Bush twice; in '08, Tanner's CD gave Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a 56%-43% margin, while Moore's Kansas City-based seat gave Pres. Obama a narrow 51%-48% margin.
But when Tanner does step down, GOPers will once again point out their success with Dem open seats in the '94 cycle.
Dems are quick to point out that the DCCC, and chair Chris Van Hollen, has been successful in stemming what could have been a tide of retirements at the end of this cycle. Still, if incumbents begin to believe this will not be a good year for their party, a wave of retirements could materialize.
Dems waved off Moore's retirement as an outlier, and one that was in the works long before the environment turned ugly for their party. They argued that it in no way was a sign of an upcoming deluge of open seats. But a Tanner retirement won't be so easy to dismiss.
Indeed, Hotline's Amy Walter wrote last week that, of all potential Dem retirements, a Tanner announcement would send the biggest shockwave through the party. After all, the thinking goes, if a longtime leader of the Blue Dogs decides now is the time to hang it up, what does that say for others in his position (like MO's Ike Skelton, AR's Marion Berry or WV's Alan Mollohan)? They've all skated to re-election in recent cycles, yet all saw their CDs go quite strongly to McCain.
NRCC Comm. Dir. Ken Spain echoed that sentiment in a statement issued tonight. "When a longtime incumbent such as Tanner - who hasn't faced a credible challenge in over decade - chooses to retire, it speaks to the deteriorating political environment that Democrats have left in their wake after eleven short months," he said.
Tanner was almost certain to have a tough election. GOPers are thrilled with the prospects of Stephen Fincher (R), a farmer and gospel singer who raised more than $300K in his first several weeks campaigning. Though Tanner has nearly $1.4M in the bank, he may not have wanted to deal with what would have been his first tough race in years.
An open seat has the potential to attract big fields on both sides. Fincher may have the benefit of a strong head start, but he may soon find company in such an attractive race for the GOP. Still, GOPers believe he's the real deal, and his warchest may scare others away.
And Dems certainly won't be bereft of solid candidates, either. They've got a solid bench in the CD, as 14 of the 20 sitting state Reps. and Senators are Dems.
I think the "woe is the national Democratic party" meme is being over blown--at least in Tanner's case. Perhaps some local insight would shed some light.
Tanner sees the hand writing on the wall. He will lose his seat anyway if the Republicans in Tennessee can hold the plurality of their seats in the state legislature in the 2010 elections--not unlikely with the current climate here in Tennessee. Then the Republicans will redraw the Congressional districts after the 2010 census that have been drawn by Democrats since the dinosaurs and his Democratically nurtured district lines will be Poof!
He can be a lame duck for a year now, take his $1.4M war chest and go home. OR he can spend his $1.4M war chest, hold on one more election cycle, be a lame duck for an entire term starting on the night he is elected and go home in two years with what ever the piddling balance is left in said war chest...
Plan to pick up several GOP congressional seats from TN by 2012.
I'm a democrat, and I voted for Barack Obama. I have to admit, however, that I am less than impressed with what he has done so far. I'm all for helping people, but the fact is, we have a bad economy, people are losing jobs, but President Obama seems focused on two things only: 1) government run health care; and 2) global warming. I really thought that I was voting for somebody who could change things in the U.S., who could be post-partisan, post-racial, and help heal the country. But so far, I see a country that is more divided than ever, and an economy that is in the dumps due to democratic policies. I never thought I'd say this, but I'm starting to wonder just what the heck I was thinking when I voted for President Obama in the first place. I had this vision of . . . something, something better than we had - but so far, I'm seeing something worse. I'm a democrat who really doesn't know what to think at this point.
An era is probably over. Tanner is one of the last in a tradition of highly respectable, conservative Democrats in Tennessee. His district has long been rabid Republican [now Tea Partiers].
The problem is whether the Republicans will field a credible candidate, or whether it will be high-jacked by a weak political novice, a religious SoCon, or whether the Tea Partiers will even vote for a Republican or some third party crank.
In Tanner's district, the Democrats more resemble national Republicans. The Republicans are potentially run by a motley combination of religious anti-abortion and gay marriage voters, and populist Tea Partiers that have developed an affinity for Ron Paul and have bought into wild-eyed conspiracy theories about the Federal Reserve and international bankers running the world. Pray that they fall behind a credible candidate.
My problem with Dennis Moore is that all he ever provided to our district is bloody lupins >:(
joe thomas you are forwarned. you are still on my list of those who need their asses kicked for voting these demo retards into office. You went against history and reason and doomed us all.
on the bright side, we now know obama isn't the antichrist. if obama was really the antichrist, we would have had at least one year of peace and posterity before all hell broke loose.
Go ahead and scoff at the Tea Partiers, SoCons and religious voters, all you progressives. You really should ignore that they're fired up and ready to work tirelessly and donate generously to flush the Dems out of Congress at first opportunity. Trust me, you've got nothing to worry about: ACORN will be fully rehabilitated and back at work collecting Democratic votes from graveyards and 1975 telephone books well before the 2010 midterms roll around.
While you're at it, go ahead and ignore that troubling little thought gnawing at the back of your minds: Never in your lives have you seen tens of thousands of self-identifying conservatives gather to protest a sitting regime, and this has happened not once but twice since the Dems changed all the locks in the White House. Yes, that's right, tell yourselves that they're motived by racism and fear of the Big O's benevolent change, and write them off as marginal whack-a-doodles who probably watch Fox News while marinating in their own home-made hooch. In fact, it's a wonder Go ahead and scoff at the Tea Partiers, SoCons and religious voters, all you progressives. You really should ignore that they're fired up and ready to work tirelessly and donate generously to flush the Dems out of Congress at first opportunity. Trust me, you've got nothing to worry about: ACORN will be fully rehabilitated and back at work collecting Democratic votes from graveyards and 1975 telephone books well before the 2010 midterms roll around.
While you're at it, go ahead and ignore that troubling little thought gnawing at the back of your minds: Never in your lives have you seen tens of thousands of self-identifying conservatives gather to protest a sitting regime, and this has happened not once but twice since the Dems changed all the locks in the White House.
Yes, that's right, tell yourselves that the "Teabaggers" are simply motived by racism and fear of the Big O's benevolent change, and write them off as marginal whack-a-doodles who probably watch Fox News while marinating in home-made hooch. In fact, it'll be a wonder if they ever find their way back to their nasty little Appalachian hovels, much more a voting booth in 2010.
Relax, progressives, and enjoy the hope and change you've fought so hard for lo these many years. Nothing to worry about, here.
What makes you think the giving that giving up this seat has nothing to due with the health care vote. With voting for health care he would have lost the seat. Now he can vote as a party person and not face the voters!
"on the bright side, we now know obama isn't the antichrist. if obama was really the antichrist, we would have had at least one year of peace and posterity before all hell broke loose."
Are you kidding? This IS the year of peace and prosperity before all hell breaks loose. Next year, 2009 will look like the good old days. Just wait till the bombings caused by his fecklessness toward our enemies start, and his response to one after another is, 'now, now. now... no response - we've just gotta take it... we deserve it, after all..."
HE deserves it. And he'll get it. But there'll be an awful lot of collateral damage (hint: that's us.)
I didn't vote for him. That'll matter in the end.
As the officer driving the Hindenburg said as it was crashing engulfed in flames toward the ground, "I quit!"
As a conservative republican, I appreciate the "come to jesus" moment some are having wondering what in the hell they voted for (change? healing the divide? hope?). But there are three points that need to be understood and embraced by the dem/left in this country.
1. The left needs to do a much more thorough job of vetting their candidates and putting forth the one person who best exemplifies their beliefs and values. You know what, this can apply to both parties (and any third or fourth paty as well).
2. The left needs to come to understand exactly what principles this country was founded on and they need to stop reading conspiracy theory into everything. No, the birthers are not a conspiracy theory group. They are simply asking the prez to show us his birth certificate so they can be placated o some levelo. He shows it, they go away. But he won't - just too bizarre. A conspiracy theory is bush causing 9/11 or the bush family being tight with the arab princes and flying Bin Laden's family safely out of the country weeks before 9/11 (blah, blah, blah). Those are conspiracy theories. bush lied, kids died, war for oil, endless war, etc.
3. The left needs to learn to listen adn not be so dismissive or condescending to the right. When someone tells me we all want healthcare for everybody, I would say great, but I would have one question. How do we as Americans pay for it? Thomas Sowell calls it "stage one thinking" (e.g. don't you want to find a cure for cancer? - don't you want everyone to have food?, etc.) Of course we all want these things. but at what cost? If providing a cure for cancer kills 2.5 billion people who are otherwise healthy, is it worth it? Or to be more timely, is it worth it to have some "new age" energy policy where everything can run on puppy dog tail wags and unicorn /pixie dust at the cost of millions of lives and our countries own existence in an effort to combat global warming when we now know somebody in the "global warming creators" office was cooking the books?
As for Tanner - good day, God bless and goodbye. Get a conservative in there that believes in limited (very limited) government and allow the people with a work ethic and an idea to make things happen in their communities with as little interference from "big brother" as is absolutely possible.
Lavaux, I'm curious. Do you believe The Fed should be abolished? Audited? And if so, by whom? Are you ready to turn monetary policy over to Nancy Pelosi, Chris Dodd, and Barney Frank?
I love the Tea Partiers' commitment to fiscal conservatism and smaller government, but they can be naive about the mechanisms of modern finance. Returning to the Gold Standard will return us to the Stone Age as quickly as Cap and Tax.
The question is really how do you divide up the Democratic party as it gets stronger: Left, Center and Right...not what the Republican party is doing.
The republican party is losing moderates and suburban women and minorities like a leaky sieve..
I envision a Dem party with three strong wings and a Republican party with only one extreme wing..."the wingnut part"
"The republican party is losing moderates and suburban women and minorities like a leaky sieve.."
Sure. Sure. Because THAT'S why Dems are retiring - because their party is getting STRONGEER, and it's the GOP that's getting weaker.
Sure. Go with that.
Joe Thomas it is too bad you and many other voters were hoodwinked by what you thought would be a centrist Administration.
As you point out, we now have the most left, Socialist Administration in history.
So what you need to do is stop this madness, first by contacting your congress people to not pass nationalized healh care and stop Climategate Change carbon tax trading fiasco legislation, and next year cross over and vote GOP.
Right now leftist Nancy Pelosi, The United Nations (with Al Gore behind the scenes), and the Chicago Mob (Obama, Valerie Jarret, Rahm Emmanuel, David Axelrod, ACORN, SEIU) are running this country into the ground.
For the sake of this country and your children I urge you to get rid of these bad eggs!!
As someone who has family and lived in Tanner's district, I can say that Tanner retiring is the smartest decision he has made in years.
The voters in his dirtrict are finally paying attention to his voting record and are livid. He has made matters worse by avoiding and ignoring his voters when they visit his offices or attempt to communicate their displeasure with his positions and votes.
Not even the blind eye of the local media could cover for him any longer. It is clear that he would not win a re-election and he chose to retire to spare himself the humiliation of losing.
I'd love to know if Tanner is one of the "blue dogs" who voted for pelosi's healthcare plan. I'd predicted you would see a number of those guys retiring, instead of wasting their money and energy on another run. Be interesting to see also, if health care passes,if he gets a nice little sinecure in govt. maybe running the healthcare program in his state.
Just sayin'
well, you guys obviously aren't Monty Python fans :p
Do you have any funny or clever riddles? Post them :)
What gets wetter and wetter the more it dries?
You throw away the outside and cook the inside. Then you eat the outside and throw away the inside. What did you eat?
What goes up and down the stairs without moving
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Hi guys, all woman's situations have their inconveniences. We feel those of the here and now but neither see or feel those of the future