Tuesday's Starting Lineup
By Reid Wilson
Good Tuesday morning. A programming note: Your OnCall editor will be on the West Coast for a few days, but that doesn't mean we're taking it easy. Check back for the latest breaking political news any time and we'll be here.
Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the people who will make news today:
54% OF AMERICA: That's the number of voters who approve of Pres. Obama in the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll, up 6 points from the early Dec. survey. 44% disapprove, down 6 points. The jump comes with a corresponding increase in the number of Americans who say they support the Senate's health care legislation -- 42% back it, up from 36% earlier this month, but 56% still oppose it.
So, is this Obama's comeback, or is it merely a blip, one of the rare polls that finds an unrepresentative sample? Time will tell, but for Dems and GOPers, the answer has huge real-world consequences.
GOPers are passing around a spreadsheet, put together by the GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, that tracks House gains and losses based on a pres.'s approval ratings. Any WH incumbent over 60% on Election Day gains a seat or 2. Between 50% and 60% and the incumbent party loses around 10 seats. But any pres. under 50% loses an average of 40 or so seats. Those figures indicate just how closely Dems' fates are linked with Obama's success, or failure. Keep an eye on his approval rating -- which stands at 48.5%, according to the latest Pollster.com average. We guarantee Dems on Capitol Hill are watching it very closely.
ANNUAL RATES: Obama's approval ratings are tied not only to the success, or failure, of health care legislation, but to the rebounding economy as well. The admin will get more good news today when the gov't announces the economy expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in the 3rd quarter, in line with expectations.
It is the first quarter of economic growth since the 2nd quarter of '08, and Dems need the trend to continue. With unemployment hovering around 10% and not expected to fall back to normal levels -- half that rate -- for years, the WH has to at least show some progress in order to claim credit for a rebound.
Of course, GOPers aren't about to let that happen without a fight, and the opposition is aiming at a key lagging indicator as the only evidence they say they need: That pesky unemployment rate. Expect "jobless recovery" to be the buzzword of the year as GOPers assert that Dem economic policies aren't working.
EX-NYC MAYOR RUDY GIULIANI: After a false start last month, Giuliani is expected to announce today that he won't run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) next year, according to several NYC papers. Giuliani will endorse ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) for GOV when he makes his announcement today.
Giuliani's decision leaves Gillibrand essentially without a challenger, and gives both parties some breathing room in the finance department. Not having to spend money on a pricey matchup between Giuliani and Gillibrand means the NRSC and the DSCC get to divert potentially millions of dollars to another contest -- no small factor in a year in which so many expensive media markets will feature party-sponsored ads.
Few close to Giuliani expected him to make a bid anyway, but his decision highlights the fact that he remains a political factor, even after his disastrous pres. bid. At 65, he's not a young man, though he is by no means old, either. He may not run for office again, but Giuliani will be a big voice for the national security wing of the GOP in coming years.
You may have not intended to do so, but I think you have managed to express the state of mind that a lot of people are in. The sense of wanting to help, but not knowing how or where, is something a lot of us are going through.
Could not be written any better. Reading this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!