Underground Battle Brewing In AR
By Reid Wilson
At first blush, a series of new TV ads running in AR are nothing more than an early slam at state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), an indication of the priority outside groups will put on the race for Sen. Blanche Lincoln's seat.
But the ads offer a different message in a more subtle way -- labor unions that funded the early TV spots are willing to get involved early on Lincoln's behalf, a notice to any Dem who would like to run against her next year.
The ads attack Baker, the GOP establishment's favorite candidate in the race, seeking to tarnish his image as a fiscal conservative. The ad urges viewers to call Baker and chastize him for spending millions on state earmarks.
The group that funded the ads, Citizens for Strength and Security, invested heavily in the early buys. Baker's campaign has said the group purchased $134K worth of TV time in Little Rock and $83K in Ft. Smith, just south of Fayetteville.
But, it has been suggested, the ads aren't solely a shot at Baker. Instead, they could also be intended as a message to AR LG Bill Halter (D), who is considering challenging Lincoln in a Dem primary.
Citizens for Strength and Security is largely funded by SEIU, according to reports filed with the IRS. The group had received $500K in the first 6 months of the year. SEIU has been a big Lincoln backer over the years, and labor strategists would love to avoid what could be an ugly primary that puts a Senate seat at even more risk.
(The CWA also donated $300K to Citizens for Strength and Security, but those contributions were refunded.)
Halter remains a somewhat unlikely candidate, given the amount of cash Lincoln has in the bank and her popularity among her Dem base.
But he is still actively exploring the idea. Halter was in DC earlier this week to attend events for a national LGs' association, but he also stopped by a dinner at the home of influential blogger Jane Hamsher where some labor officials and liberal bloggers urged him to make the race.
A Halter spokesman told Greg Sargent that Halter is listening respectfully to suggestions that he run for Senate, but that he is focusing on his own race for re-election at the moment. But we hear rumblings that Halter may be closer to making a race than many think.
But a race in the primary would not be completely futile. A poll for the liberal website DailyKos.com last week, conducted by the independent firm Research 2000, showed Lincoln leading Halter 42%-26% -- hardly a good showing for Halter, but equally bad for Lincoln, who clocks in well under the 50% mark.
DSCC spokesperson Eric Schultz would not address Halter's chances, saying instead the DSCC is "100% behind Blanche Lincoln because she's an independent voice for Arkansas." A Lincoln spokesperson did not immediately return an email seeking comment.
Baker called the ads "misleading," and said they reaffirm "the fact that this will be the most negative campaign in Arkansas history."
"It comes as no surprise to see Senator Lincoln's liberal friends come to her rescue," Baker added. "This organization, which is nothing more than a front group for national labor unions, is trying to smear my conservative record in Arkansas because of my vocal and consistent opposition to the union card check issue- a job killing bill that would have detrimental effects on our already shaky economy."
Dems have signaled Baker's record in Little Rock, including his spending record, will play a role in their attacks on him next year.
"Gilbert Baker has a record that he's going to have to answer for, and there's a lot of vulnerabilities in that record," Schultz Hotline OnCall.
Meanwhile, in other AR SEN news, ex-AR Farm Bureau head Stanley Reed (R) said late Thursday he will also run against Lincoln. Though many in the GOP establishment have already signaled they will back Baker, AR politicos see Reed as a strong candidate as well. He joins Baker and 6 other GOPers in a field that still may not be completely set.