What Parker Griffith Means
By Reid Wilson
Rep. Parker Griffith's (R-AL) surprise decision to abandon the Dem Party in favor of the GOP is an early Christmas present for the minority, but it doesn't signal the impending demise of the Dem majority.
Griffith had a tough battle just to get his seat, beating a virtually unknown GOP rival by only 4 points in '08. At the same time, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) carried his district with 61%.
During his year in Congress as a Dem, Griffith voted with GOPers on most party-line votes. He opposed the stimulus bill, cap and trade and health care legislation. He even said he would not vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker when the 112th Congress convenes in Jan. '11.
But after a Dec. in which 4 Dems in swing districts announced they would not seek re-election, Griffith's decision to abandon his party cannot be seen as anything but a blow to Dems. If someone with his voting record is deciding to run as a GOPer instead of a Dem, that could suggest he is seeing polling that scares him.
Expect GOPers to suggest that the next to flip may be Reps. Walt Minnick (D-ID), Bobby Bright (D-AL) and Travis Childers (D-MS). All 3 represent deep red districts, and all 3 vote with their party 80% of the time or less -- a lower frequency than Griffith voted with Dem leaders, according to the Washington Post vote tracker.
GOP sources hint that there may be more party switches to come, sounding as confident as they have been with an impending, but not yet obvious, wave of retirements. Dems insist there are no other murmurings, and indeed no one has given indications like Griffith did when he said he wouldn't support Pelosi.
Meanwhile, if Dems are looking for a silver lining on the otherwise cloudy story, they've just saved themselves a ton of money and what could have been a big headache. The party spent $1.2M on independent expenditures on Griffith last year, along with another $200K on field operations. And, as a member of the Dems' Frontline Program for vulnerable incumbents, Griffith was sucking up money that can now be used on other endangered members.
And Dems may get their revenge yet, as some party switchers just can't seem to find a home in their new caucus. Recall Rep. Michael Forbes, the GOPer-turned-Dem who lost the next year's primary. And Sen. Arlen Specter (D) has had his own difficulties assimilating into the Dem Party.
Dems turning into GOPers have had an easier time. Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) did so in '04 and has yet to face a real challenge from a Dem opponent. Griffith's home-state colleague, Sen. Richard Shelby (R), hasn't faced a tough race since he became a GOPer after the '94 elections.
But that doesn't mean that some GOPer might still try and take Griffith's seat. The conservative Club for Growth on Tuesday criticized Griffith for his votes in favor of some Dem priorities, and he already has other candidates in the race against him. If anything, Tea Party activists could see a GOP-held seat with no viable Dem contender, so far, as the perfect chance to campaign against a DC insider with a less than perfect voting record.
Shelby and then-Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-CO) both switched parties after a GOP sweep in '94. Alexander, facing voters on the same ballot as Pres. Bush, who won his district easily, made his switch out of expediency.
Dems hope Griffith has done the same, showing the realities of his own district rather than a justified reaction to scary poll numbers. GOPers have to hope that Griffith, like the 4 retired Dems earlier this month, are but the tip of the iceberg.
Parker Griffith's application to the Republican Party should be rejected. He is a Democrat. He ran as a Democrat. Just because he has looked into the crystal ball and has seen his fate does not mean Republicans should welcome him with open arms.
We should find a true conservative Republican and claim this seat with a REAL Republican, not just some jaded, Democrat opportunist
This guy will not be in Congress in 2011. He ran as a Democrat, hopping into the open seat left by his old boss Bud Cramer, who held the seat since 1991. This district would reelect him whether he was a Democrat or a Republican, so long as he was conservative with a little populism thrown in. Look at Gene Taylor. Instead, he turned his back to the DCCC and will end up losing in a GOP primary. And who can justify to their constituents moving from the majority to the minority? Good riddance to this guy.
This switch just shows that southern politicians will not run as Democrats unless they live in Florida or in black districts. And it further cements the Republicans as the party of the white south, and all the faults that entails vis a vis the rest of the country.
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Don't worry folks. If the GOP Primary were today, Griffith would come in third.
Griffith contributed $1500 to Howard Dean for President.
Griffith voted for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Griffith voted with Nancy Pelosi 85% of the time.
Mo Brooks
Candidate, Alabama 5th Congressional District
(8-time elected GOP office-holder)
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