Where's Beau Biden?
By Reid Wilson
DE AG Beau Biden may be the only chance Dems have to hang on to a Senate seat this year, and his silence on whether he will enter the race has become deafening.
Biden, who served a year in Iraq as part of the DE National Guard's JAG Corps, returned in Oct. and said he would consider running to take over his father's old Senate seat. Sen. Ted Kaufman (D), appointed to replace VP Joe Biden, is not seeking election.
Polls have shown the younger Biden running neck and neck with Rep. Mike Castle (R), the leading GOPer in the race.
Both men have near-universal name recognition, and both have sky-high approval ratings.
But Castle is in the race -- a big recruiting coup for national GOPers. Biden is not, yet.
"He's seriously thinking about it and hasn't made a decision," said Jason Miller, a spokesperson for the AG's office. DE Dem spokesperson Katie Ellis added little to that vagueness: "What he's said is pretty much what we know at this point," she said.
"We fully hope and expect him to run," says Eric Schultz, the DSCC's communications director. He refused to discuss any recent conversations the DSCC has had with Biden or his allies.
But while the DSCC remains optimistic, there is little chance the party can keep the seat in their hands if Biden decides to wait until Castle retires. Dems would likely turn to New Castle Co. exec. Chris Coons (D) as their nominee, but anyone not named Biden running against Castle -- someone who has held office in DE in 5 consecutive decades -- would face an almost insurmountable task.
GOP strategists backing Castle have argued privately that it does make sense for the younger Biden to sit out this time around: There are 4 years left on Joe Biden's unexpired term, and Castle has strongly hinted he wouldn't seek an extra term after that. At just 40 years old, Beau Biden can wait for Castle to retire, then waltz into a seat he would own for life.
Still, the DSCC is very much hoping Biden's campaign comes sooner rather than later.
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Reid, where are you getting this from?
Almost insurmountable? In a state John Kerry carried by six and Al Gore by 13? (And yeah, I'm leaving out the 2008 numbers so that no one can complain about the elder Biden being on the ticket.) No, not insurmountable at all. Every prognosticator has this race at Tossup or Lean R. Lean R does not equal "almost insurmountable."
@DavidNYC: It would be almost insurmountable because of Mike Castle's popularity. He represents the entire state in the House, and even as Kerry and Gore carried the state by six and 13, in the same elections Castle was re-elected to the House by margins that dwarf that (he won by 37 points in 2000 and by 39 points in 2004). Not to mention the fact that Castle won by 23 points in 2008, with Obama and Biden on the ticket.