January 2010

Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) has hired RNC nat'l press sec. Gail Gitcho as his DC comm. dir., Brown's office announced today.

Gitcho, like several Brown staffers, including camp comm. dir. Eric Fehrnstrom, is an alum of ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) WH '08 campaign, where served as a regional press sec. She later served as mid-Atlantic comm. dir. for Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) WH bid.

Gitcho's move to Brown's team means the RNC -- which today wrapped up its winter meeting in Honolulu -- is now left without a top comm. staffer. RNC ex-comm. dir. Trevor Francis was forced out in Nov., and the search for a replacement is over two months long. GOP consultant Alex Castellanos has been serving as an unpaid adviser.

CNN's Candy Crowley has become the first woman in 19 years to solo anchor a Sunday morning pol. show, as she has been named the new anchor of CNN's "State of the Union."

This a.m., outgoing anchor John King handed over the reins of the year-old program to the CNN veteran.

Other reported contenders for the job included CNN's Gloria Borger, PBS' Gwen Ifill, CNN's Ed Henry and Ted Koppel.

Crowley made a strong impression on viewers when she subbed in for King over Christmas break on 12/27. Her interview with DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano included a soundbite -- "The system worked" -- in reference to the Christmas Day attempted underwear bomber incident that was played on loop for weeks and led many to question Napolitano's job performance.

In a CNN press release, Crowley said: "To me, Sunday morning is a sweet spot - a weekly meeting place to bring the hopes, worries and questions of everyday Americans I talk with along the campaign trail to the people I talk with in the Corridors of Power. Add to those conversations, interviews with A-team experts and international heavyweights making sense of global issues and what you have is interesting, relevant information. I can't wait."

In the same release, CNN pres. Jon Klein: "Candy's rare combination of shrewd insight and healthy irreverence for the games politicians play has made her one of the most honored political journalists and a cult figure among CNN viewers. Every Sunday she'll translate Washington-speak into plain English that every American can understand, as she has been doing better than any reporter on the beat for decades."

Could Puerto Rico eventually get a real vote in Congress? Erin McPike takes a look at a potential vote Congress could take to make that a reality, in this week's National Journal:

The issue of Puerto Rico's political status has been simmering for nearly 50 years. Now, at a time when Congress has plenty of other pressing items on its agenda, lawmakers may soon be voting on a measure to allow the residents of the largest U.S. territory to determine their own fate.

Last July, the House Natural Resources Committee approved the Puerto Rico Democracy Act, which would establish at least one plebiscite in the Caribbean territory to survey the populace about what status they want for their island. According to the office of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., the bill will come up for a floor vote this year. "It remains a priority," spokeswoman Katie Grant said.

...

Puerto Rico's quest for self-determination has, in fact, long had supporters on both sides of the political aisle, and in an election year, both parties are interested in courting Hispanics. "Every Republican president in the last 50 years has supported this process," Fortuno said in an interview. "President Reagan was a strong supporter of this process, and actually of statehood as well."

...

For many years, public sentiment moved gradually toward statehood. In a 1967 referendum, Puerto Ricans voted for ELA over statehood 60 percent to 39 percent. But in a 1993 referendum, the vote was 48 percent for ELA and 46 percent for statehood, according to The Almanac. In a November survey of 787 Puerto Rican voters, pollster Pablo Ramos found that 58 percent favored statehood, results almost identical to a 2008 survey.

The pending legislation is not self-executing: It simply provides for Congress to authorize an official survey in Puerto Rico that would inform the U.S. government about what the territory's citizens want. Congress could then move forward as it sees fit. If a majority of Puerto Ricans voted to change the territory's status, a second plebiscite would take place three to six months later that would ask residents whether they would like to become a state, gain independence, or become a sovereign nation with U.S. ties. If a majority voted for the status quo in the first plebiscite, the proposal allows for another plebiscite eight years later.

Read the whole article at NationalJournal.com.

Rep. John Boozman (R) is set to make official his candidacy against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in an announcement in Little Rock next week, according to GOP sources.

"Over the course of the last few weeks, I have been encouraged by many Arkansans who are very concerned about the critical issues facing our state and our nation to consider where I can best serve the people of our state. The response has been overwhelming," Boozman said in a statement released late Friday. "I will be in Little Rock next Saturday to make an important announcement, and I look forward to continuing these conversations with Arkansans during the weeks and months to come."

GOP sources say the announcement will formalize his SEN bid. He is holding the event in the state's capitol and largest city, rather than his home base of Fayetteville.

Boozman's decision finally gives the GOP a top-notch recruit after months during which it appeared Lincoln would face the winner of a primary between lesser-known contenders. Though other candidates have said they will not abandon their bids, Boozman represents a huge portion of the GOP primary electorate and would be an instant front-runner.

That puts him in good position to claim the Senate seat. Polls show Lincoln losing to state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) and failing to break 45% against any of the other candidates. Boozman has not been tested in recent polls.

Boozman's decision also further decimates his state's seniority in Congress. He is the 3rd member of the state's 4-member House delegation to decide against running for re-election; Reps. Marion Berry (D) and Vic Snyder (D) announced their retirements earlier this year. Only Rep. Mike Ross (D) is running for re-election.

Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) squared off in their second televised debate, with Hutchison wasting no time in launching broadsides against the incumbent.

Hutchison hit the Texas Enterprise Fund, a state fund which she sad "is not producing the jobs that were promised." The fund became a campaign issue earlier this week, when the non-profit group Texans For Public Justice released a report calling several elements of the program into question. Hutchison has called for an audit of the fund.

Perry defended the fund during the debate, calling it "one of the most successful programs, most popular with legislature and the local governments."

Meanwhile, Hutchison took heat over her decision to resign from the Senate and its impact on the GOP's newfound filibuster-ready minority, after Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) win.

"There is not a scintilla of a chance that a Democrat will be elected to the United States Senate from Texas. If the people of Massachusetts did what they did ... I know a good Republican will be elected," she declared.

The 2 squared off on issues ranging from transportation to immigration, abortion, jobs, and the TX economy. Joining the two name brand GOP candidates was the lesser known Wharton Co. GOP Chair/ex-nurse Debra Medina (R), who was a late addition to the debate, based on her recent polling gains.

Medina found herself attacking Perry more often than she went after Hutchison, and she also embraced the role of the underdog, saying "both of my opponents have received recent noteworthy endorsements. ... The endorsement I am most interested in is yours."

Perry continues to portray himself as the candidate with executive experience, and a defensible record, casting Hutchison as beholden to DC, and less in touch with TXans -- a tactic he has used throughout the campaign, and one that may be enough to hold off the competition as he heads into the stretch run of the race as the favorite. Hutchison sells herself as a candidate who can do better than Perry on state issues like transportation, the economy and jobs.

But Medina has emerged as a factor as well. For Medina, who is less visible and cannot blanket the state with ads like the 2 frontrunners, chances to be seen on statewide TV are few and far between. Although Medina lags well behind Perry and Hutchison in the polls, there is a possibility that she can draw enough votes to prevent either candidate from achieving 50% of the vote during the Mar. 2 primary, thereby causing an Apr. runoff.

Such an outcome could benefit Hutchison, by allowing her to survive and extend a race she is currently appears to be losing to Perry.

HONOLULU, HI -- The RNC avoided a potentially embarrassing resolution that would have given the party an ability to impose sanctions on candidates who do not follow key elements of the GOP platform, a move that would have shone a spotlight on some of the party's best recruits.

GOPers meeting in Honolulu this week unanimously said the party is in good shape to make big electoral gains this year, but many worried that the proposed resolution could highlight differences between conservatives and several more moderate contenders.

The resolution, submitted by IN national committeeman Jim Bopp, would have given the RNC the power to request money from candidates the party supported if the party determined the candidate did not conform to at least 8 of 10 policy planks.

That original wording appeared to put Reps. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Mike Castle (R-DE) out of contention for RNC funding, even though they stand strong chances of retaking Dem-held Senate seats. Castle and Kirk voted in favor of cap and trade legislation, have "F" ratings from the NRA and aren't completely -- violating 3 of the 10 planks.

Bopp had the 10 signatures needed to get the resolution to the floor, but negotiations over a compromise proved fruitless. An association of GOP state chairs unanimously opposed the resolution, and Bopp eventually withdrew the motion. Bopp's decision to withdraw the resolution won a round of applause on the floor of the general session.

Meanwhile, RNC chair Michael Steele used his address to the national party to blast Pres. Obama's State of the Union address and to launch a new program aimed at promoting GOP wins in every state, similar to ex-DNC chair Howard Dean's 50-state strategy. The new program, D2H, is intended to spotlight every state from DE, the First State, to HI, the 50th state.

Steele, concluding a bumpy first year as chair, acknowledged some of his gaffes while insisting the focus should be on the party, not on himself.

"This is not Michael Steele's moment. This is not [RNC co-chair] Jan Larimer's moment. This is not the Republican Party's moment. This is the people's moment," Steele said. "We put our faith in people and not in Pres. Obama. We put our faith in people and not the policies of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid."

RNC CoS Ken McKay presented an upbeat assessment of the party's electoral chances, pledging to win back seats both in Nov. and in any special elections beforehand. "We might as well beat as many [Dems] as we can," McKay joked.

RNC members will hear from Honolulu city councilman Charles Djou (R), the party's top candidate in a special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), at the closing dinner tonight.

Rep./SEN candidate Charlie Melancon (D-03) is wading onto the ever-so-dangerous ground between sports and politics now that LA's own Saints are headed to Miami for Super Bowl XLIV.

Melancon, who is running to challenge Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) in '10, sent out an e-mail 1/29 asking supporters to sign his "WHO DAT" petition that tells the NFL to "leave our fans alone." The petition includes a box for e-mail addresses for signers, which means Melancon can keep in touch with anyone that signs up afterward.

UPDATE: Vitter got into the game, releasing his own petition around 6:40 p.m. ET.

Earlier this month, the NFL claimed ownership rights to the phrase "Who dat?" and issued cease-and-desist orders to LA merch stores that sold shirts with the phrase printed on them. "WHO DAT?" is a shortened version of the chant "Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Who dat? Who dat?" and originated in the vaudeville scene the turn of the last century.

Melancon claimed that there is "some heavy-handed legal posturing by the NFL" that "is threatening to put a damper on our celebration." Melancon wrote that "no one owns 'WHO DAT' except for Who Dat Nation."

"For all of us long-time Saints fans, it's doubly frustrating to see the NFL swoop in just as soon as our team breaks out into the national spotlight," wrote Melancon. "This year has been special precisely because of how much passion Saints fans have shown for our team. We've been there since the beginning, and no one's going to tell us to get off one stop away from the end. For all the Saints fans across Louisiana, let's make clear who the real owners of "WHO DAT" are."

Melancon closed his e-mail by stating his campaign will "go back to working on political issues in the days to come. But for now, I hope we can come together to protect "WHO DAT" from anyone who would claim to own it -- aside from all of us of course!"

In other news, Melancon announced 1/28 that he raised just $600K in the 4thQ, which is about half the $1.2M raised by Vitter. Vitter also has more than twice as much CoH -- $4.5M to $2M.

A top aide to House Min. Whip Eric Cantor will leave his office to head up a new organization aimed at helping GOPers in the '10 elections.

Rob Collins, who served as Cantor's chief of staff and as a top advisor to the GOP whip's office, will become the executive director of a new 501(c)(4) organization, according to a source close to the move.

Collins has worked on many campaigns over the years, including tenures at the RNC and the NRSC. Since coming to Cantor's office, Collins has managed his communications, political and grassroots operations.

Details about the new group have yet to come out. Collins declined to provide any more information and refused comment.

His renomination in jeopardy, Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) has pledged to overturn health care legislation if he wins another term.

Bennett is a prime target of the Club for Growth, which has said it opposes his renomination thanks to his record on earmarks and on health care legislation of his own, which he sponsored with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR). So it was a surprise, Club pres. Chris Chocola said, when Bennett signed their "Repeal It!" pledge.

"We were pleasantly surprised to receive Senator Bennett's pledge to repeal any health care takeover passed by Congress in 2010," Chocola said. "The Club for Growth has long considered Wyden-Bennett a takeover itself, so the question now is whether Bennett will withdraw his name from that bill."

The Club has not settled on a Bennett challenger to back, but it has said it will work to make sure Bennett is not picked at the state party convention later this year. If Bennett does not reach a certain threshold, he will be kept off the primary ballot.

HONOLULU, HI -- FL GOP chair Jim Greer, under fire from conservative activists angry with his close relationship with a candidate in a contested primary, resigned his post as chair of the RNC Rules Committee and urged fellow GOPers to adopt a bigger tent.

Earlier this month, Greer announced he would resign his position as chair of the FL GOP after fundraisers, big donors and activists pounded him relentlessly for his support of FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R). Crist is facing criticism from conservatives who favor ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

In a letter to fellow RNC members sent the day they are to hold their semi-annual general session, Greer urged members to adopt a big-tent approach instead of eschewing moderate candidates.

"The Republican Party has great opportunities before it and our Party's belief in less government, less taxes and self responsibility is one in which Americans are once again embracing which can lead the GOP to many victories this November," Greer wrote. "But we must also be a Party that is inclusive and committed to providing solutions to the challenges that American's are facing, which, as we all know, is the economy and jobs."

"For our Party to be successful, we must reject those who promote division, personal attacks and the constant drum beat of Moderates vs. Conservatives. We must talk about the issues and policies and not individuals. We must recognize that the opposition is not within our own Party, but the Democrats and their policies. We must also do all we can to make African Americans and Hispanics feel welcome in the Republican Party. With this in mind, I encourage the RNC to oppose any attempt to create a 'purity test', to do so would slam the door in the face of Independents and all voters that may be considering to join or coming back to the Republican Party," Greer added.

Greer also took a veiled shot at one of his FL colleagues who is vying to take his job. Greer thanked FL RNC member Paul Senft for his work, but he left national committeewoman Sharon Day out of his remarks. Day is running to replace Greer, challenging Greer's hand-picked successor.

Greer was forced to resign his post as Rules Committee chair. Members of the committee must be RNC members, and Greer's resignation next month would preclude him from serving. He was replaced by AZ national committeeman Bruce Ash, who won a unanimous vote.

Ash's ascendence means more power for AZ. State party chair Randy Pullen is already the RNC's treasurer.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod and House Min. Leader John Boehner. The roundtable will feature CNBC's David Faber, Washington Post's Eugene Robinson, New York Times' David Brooks and U.S. News & World Report's Mort Zuckerman.

Face the Nation hosts TBA.

This Week hosts Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA). The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, New York Times' Paul Krugman, FNC chair Roger Ailes and Huffington Post's Arianna Huffington.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen. The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), GOP strategist Mary Matalin, Dem strategist James Carville and AFL-CIO pres. Richard Trumka (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

CongressDaily's Erin McPike passes along a salient point.

The NRCC has $2.67M in the bank. That's less than any of the following candidates have on hand: FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) and ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), who is running against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA).

The NRCC also has less than Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA), who ended his campaign with about $4M in the bank.

That's not a great position in which to start the midterm election year.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has raised $1.28M for his new federal PAC, according to reports to be filed with the FEC this weekend.

Pawlenty launched his Freedom First PAC on Oct. 1, taking a conventional first step toward exploring an eventual WH bid.

Pawlenty's PAC spent $395K during the same period, contributing to 7 GOP candidates. PACs that have existed for fewer than 6 months can give $2,400 to candidates; assuming Pawlenty gave the maximum to the 7 candidates, that means he spent $16,800 -- or 4% of his total expenditures -- on candidate contributions.

Pawlenty contributed to Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA), ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH), NY-23 candidate Doug Hoffman, Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Reps. John Kline (R), Erik Paulsen and Michele Bachmann (R), his homestate delegation.

Besides writing checks, Pawlenty has spent his first quarter on the national stage traveling the country meeting with GOP activists. Pawlenty has been to IA and NH in the past few months; he will attend several events this year, like CPAC and the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.

"As more people learn about the Governor, they're really impressed by his record in Minnesota, and his natural ability to connect with people," said Phil Musser, Pawlenty's senior advisor said. "He's an optimistic, authentic leader with a conservative record of balancing budgets and passing innovative reforms. The PAC is off to a solid start, and we look forward to playing a big role in the ideas debate, and in supporting the next generation of Republican leaders."

Update: In a press release earlier today, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) bragged his Free and Strong America PAC has raised $2.9M over '09. The PAC donated $64K to federal candidates, the release says, and another $28K to state and local candidates.

Romney's PAC has state affiliates in IA, AL, MI, NH and SC. Romney handed out contributions to candidates for mayor of Manchester, NH and Franklin, NH, a Manchester alderman candidate, 5 SEN candidates and a dozen members of Congress who were under fire from Dems.

My story in today's National Journal:

Every time Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele gets into trouble, a burst of good news for the GOP bails him out. But Republican strategists fret that his unorthodox approach to his job could leave the party short of cash -- and short of the electoral gains that it might otherwise achieve.

Republicans, even those who have never been fans of the outspoken Steele, have concluded that trying to oust him would cause the party more pain than it's worth. Still, the RNC's freewheeling spending in the year since Steele's appointment worries many GOP officials.

As of January 1, the RNC had just $8.4 million in the bank, down from $22.8 million when Steele was elected on January 30, 2009. That means the RNC is not in a strong position to help its House and Senate candidates, even though that's one of its traditional roles. "Normally, in the off year, the RNC transfers heavily" to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a former chairman of the NRCC and a former RNC chief of staff. "We clearly have more opportunities than cash right now."

Every month since July, the RNC has spent more than it has raised. Steele's spending was very low over the first several months of his tenure because he fired an estimated 75 to 100 staffers after many were deemed more loyal to the previous chairman than to him. But new hires, along with Steele's reliance on outside consultants, have boosted the RNC's burn rate, the pace at which the party spends money, to unsustainable levels.

RNC officials "need to be raising and keeping more than they're raising and keeping," conservative activist Grover Norquist said. Steele "needs to be focused on raising money for the candidates. And if you're going to spend money helping to protect the brand, you need to be doing it in consultation with elected officials and the party chairs and the RNC."

...

"They are going to leave seats behind, meaning Democrats will be saved because of their fundraising advantage when they otherwise shouldn't," a former top RNC official complained. Much of the outside sniping mentions that Steele has paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to firms owned by the two consultants who managed his campaign for national party chairman. Federal Election Commission reports show that the RNC has given at least $330,000 to OnMessage, a nationally known media and polling firm run by Steele adviser Curt Anderson. The company, which is highly regarded in the consulting world and which worked for Steele's unsuccessful 2006 Senate campaign in Maryland, received an additional $32,000 from a Virginia political action committee funded jointly by the RNC and the Republican Governors Association. Another firm, run by Steele adviser Blaise Hazelwood, received at least $141,000 from the RNC this year.

Although Anderson is not an RNC official, he exerts an exceptional amount of control over the organization. When Communications Director Trevor Francis was forced out in late November, after just eight months on the job, Anderson interviewed candidates vying to take over the communications shop. One former communications staffer said that Anderson was involved to such an extent that his approval was required before some press releases went out. "Curt's running the RNC," said a source with intimate knowledge of the party committee's operations.

On Steele's watch, the RNC has spent $11 million to cultivate new donors, an effort that RNC Chief of Staff Ken McKay says will yield $100 million over the next decade. But critics say that the committee is ignoring longtime, top-dollar contributors. One major donor, RNC member Christine Toretti of Pennsylvania, told The Washington Times earlier this month that because Steele had not called her, she would not be writing a check to the RNC this year and would instead give to the Republican Governors Association. Sources say that Steele privately fumed over the comment and threatened to retaliate by cutting off financial aid to Pennsylvania candidates, even though the GOP has a chance to pick up the governorship, a Senate seat, and several House seats there. Steele eventually backed off.

The chairman's critics, meanwhile, are keeping an eye on other spending decisions. On Election Night in November, Steele attended Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's victory party. Steele kept a private plane waiting just in case Chris Christie won New Jersey's governorship. When Christie pulled ahead of his Democratic rival, Steele flew to the Garden State for the photo opportunity. He arrived too late to appear on stage, however.

Steele's detractors also complain about the lavish Christmas party that the RNC held for its employees at the expensive Newseum in downtown Washington. The event cost the committee thousands of dollars, sources say, although exact figures won't be public until campaign finance reports are filed on February 1. RNC members are in Hawaii this week for their semi-annual meeting. (House Republicans, by contrast, are holding their annual retreat in Baltimore.)

Read the full article at NationalJournal.com.

The Land of Lincoln kicks off the primary season on Tuesday when voters head to the polls to pick nominees in contested SEN, GOV and House races across the country. IL also has the distinction of kicking off Hotline OnCall's Primary Preview, our cheat sheet for upcoming contests.

Check back before all 50 state primaries and we'll give you the hints and tips on every competitive race around the country. But let's start with IL's Groundhog Day contests:

GOV RACE: When ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) was impeached, IL newspapers and good-government types hailed Gov. Pat Quinn's (D) ascension to the top spot. Quinn is not a part of the Chicago machine, giving him reformer credentials to change Springfield. But reformers don't make a lot of friends, and that's why recent polls have shown Compt. Dan Hynes (D) catching up, and quickly.

A recent survey from Market Shares Corp., conducted for the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV, shows Quinn leading Hynes by a narrow 44%-40% margin, way down from the 26-point gap Quinn enjoyed in early Dec. Both campaigns have delved into the mud in recent weeks in what has proven a quietly nasty race. Hynes is attacking Quinn with an ad featuring former Mayor Harold Washington saying Quinn is unsuited to lead, while Quinn has an ad up bashing Hynes for mishandling the Burr Oak Cemetery, where employees dug up corpses and resold their burial plots.

The GOP primary is no more clear. Ex-IL GOP chair Andy McKenna (R) holds a slim 1-point lead over ex-AG Jim Ryan (R), 19%-18%. State Sen. Kirk Dillard (R) clocks in at 14%, while state Sen. Bill Brady (R) has 9%. The winner of both primaries will have ample time to restock their warchests. McKenna, at the moment, is the darling of conservatives, though he has spent time attacking all 3 of his rivals equally, not just perceived frontrunner Ryan, in order to make a hole for himself.

The Chicago Tribune has endorsed McKenna, but refused to endorse a Dem in the primary. The Chicago Sun Times is backing Dillard in the GOP primary and Quinn on the Dem side.

SEN RACE: Sen. Roland Burris (D) will not seek a full term, giving GOPers a chance to take Pres. Obama's old Senate seat -- a victory that, if it happens, would be a huge coup. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) looks likely to win that primary; the Tribune poll had him leading his nearest competitor, real estate developer Patrick Hughes, by 39 points. Hughes has run to the right of Kirk, but he failed to catch on with the GOP base.

Dems face a closer contest, although the clear front-runner is IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D). His opponents, ex-Chicago Urban League Pres. Cheryle Jackson (D) and ex-Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D), are portraying Giannoulias as an insider with questionable ties to Blagojevich and convicted felon Tony Rezko, ties the GOP will exploit in a general election. The WH was concerned enough over Giannoulias's baggage to try and talk AG Lisa Madigan (D) into the race.

But Giannoulias's name recognition has given him a clear edge, and he's raised more than either of his foes. Meanwhile, he hasn't made any major slipups yet. Jackson and Hoffman, it appears, will need a miracle to pull off the upset. Watch for Giannoulias to run close to his rivals in Chicago, but to run up big margins downstate.

The Tribune and the Sun-Times are both backing Hoffman and Kirk.

IL-10: GOPers have long held this seat by running moderate GOPers, including Kirk and ex-Rep. Jon Porter (R). Now that Kirk is running for SEN, state Rep. Beth Coulson (R) has grabbed that moderate mantle (her opponents call her "liberal"), and is running with the endorsements of Porter and ex-Gov. Jim Edgar (R). But she faces two conservative businessmen -- Robert Dold (R) and Dick Green (R), both of whom are spending heavily on TV to stress their business credentials. Coulson started out as a frontrunner, but Green and Dold have bought themselves lots of name ID. This is anybody's race, but Coulson will certainly benefit by Dold and Green splitting the conservative vote.

Updated at 12:00 p.m.

Rep. Steve Buyer (R-IN) announced his retirement this a.m., citing his wife's health as the reason for his decision. "On Nov. 24 and reconfirmed on January 19th, and further again today, Joni has been diagnosed with what doctors call an 'incurable,' autoimmune disease," Buyer said. "While Joni's sister died twenty one months ago from this disease, I will not call it incurable because it's our faith that allows us to believe that all diseases will be cured." He added that his wife has been advised to "de-stress" her life, so he's decided to step down from his House seat.

The news of his retirement was first reported by an Indianapolis TV station.

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington recently filed a complaint asking the OCE to investigate allegations that a foundation Buyer established to award scholarships had yet to actually help fund any student scholarships. CREW alleges that Buyer used the charity to fund golf fundraisers instead.

The Lafayette-based CD is heavily GOP, as it gave John McCain 56% in '08, and Pres. Bush 69% in '04. Buyer has been in office since '92, and has never earned below 60% in any of his re-election campaigns.

A GOP source says two early names being batted around for the seat include state Sen. Brandt Hershman (R) and LG Becky Skillman (R), who is from the CD.

"World News" led with post-State of the Union recap and reactions. "Evening News" led with the Toyota recall. "Nightly News" led with post-State of the Union recap and reactions.

Pols weighed in last p.m. on Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's confirmation.

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), on why he voted to confirm Bernanke: "I believe he should lead the Fed, even though he made serious mistakes leading up to the crisis. In the crisis, he prevented a global financial collapse by taking unprecedented action to provide liquidity to the markets. Absent that action, absent the action by this administration and this Congress, I believe we would have been in full-scale rout. We would have had unemployment over 15 percent and increasing" ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 1/28).

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), on if Bernanke should have a second term: "I do, but I understand why some people are really hesitant. Ben Bernanke missed the housing bubble. And this is a guy who studied in the past and tried to understand why they occur. This housing bubble was obviously the cause of a great deal of pain for Americans, and he missed it" ("Your World," FNC, 1/28).

Ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina: "I do think that it is a wise decision that Bernanke was reconfirmed. I think for him to have not been confirmed would create even more chaos in the financial system. ... I think the issue is that it is probably unfair to put all of the frustration and anger with failed economic policies at the feet of Ben Bernanke."

After the jump, more on Bernanke, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) on health care and ex-AK Sarah Palin (R) on the future of the Tea Party movement.

Good Friday morning, and aloha from Honolulu, where the RNC holds its general session today.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, the list of figures who will make news today:

THE NRCC: The GOP's Congressional campaign wing will report having raised just over $3.2M in Dec., and, more importantly, finally eliminating the committee's debt. But that comes at a cost: At a time when the DCCC has $16.7M in the bank and $2M in debt, the NRCC will have just $2.67M cash on hand. When one party has 5 times more money in the bank than another, even a national wave becomes harder to sustain.

What's more, the RNC won't be there to bail the NRCC out. As we write in National Journal today, the RNC has just $8.4M to start out the year, a lower figure than they have had in every midterm election cycle in the modern campaign finance era. The RNC has already given the NRCC $2M this year, but if they can't come through with millions more, GOP strategists worry they will leave seats on the table in the most favorable political climate perhaps since '94.

So, what can the NRCC do? They have focused on recruiting strong candidates -- a major plus when money becomes a factor. But the simple truth is the party needs money, and fast. When -- or if -- that money comes through, then the GOP can start seriously considering the possibility of retaking the majority.

4TH-QUARTER GDP: Speaking of a harsh political terrain for Dems, the Commerce Dept. today rolls out its preliminary estimates for economic growth over the last 3 months of '09. We've said it before, and we'll say it again: If Dems want to save themselves, they need the economy to start turning around. More simply, base indicators aren't enough to save Dem seats -- they need voters to believe the economy is turning around.

Part of that is GDP growth, but a larger factor is the nation's unemployment rate. Keep an eye on the BLM's monthly unemployment numbers, released the first Friday of every month, to get a real sense of where Dems stand in convincing the electorate the economy is getting better. (What's more, make sure you clip and save Hotline OnCall's must-read calendar of economic indicators)

The Senate today sent Ben Bernanke on to a second term, amid widespread disagreement among lawmakers over the Fed chief's role in the economic crisis and the admin.'s response to it.

The 70-30 confirmation vote, while not a nail-biter, was the narrowest ever for a Fed chief, second only to WH adviser/ex-Fed Chair Paul Volcker's 84-16 renomination vote in '83.

The final tally showed seven sens. who had changed their positions from the cloture vote earlier this p.m., in which the Senate voted 77-23 to end debate.

Both the opposition to Bernanke's renomination and the support for it was bipartisan. Those backing Bernanke included 48 Dems and 22 GOPers, from liberals such as Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) to conservatives such as Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC).

Bernanke's detractors ran the ideological gamut as well. 12 Dems and 18 GOPers voted against him, ranging from Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) on the right to Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) on the left.

Five days out from the IL GOV primary, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and challenger IL Comp. Dan Hynes (D) sparred over jobs, the IL budget deficit and negative campaigning in what has quickly become the state's most vicious '10 race.

The two rivals appeared this p.m. on WVON's Cliff Kelley Show, an African-American oriented radio program in Chicago. They took listener-submitted questions from Kelley (who appeared very partial to Quinn) about Chicago's potential third airport, the IL budget deficit, tax reform, and the controversial Harold Washington TV ad released by Hynes last week.

Hynes has been on offense in the last weeks of the race, surging in the polls and collecting newspaper endorsements across the state. Quinn has struggled to find an angle of attack, reaching back to a summer scuffle involving the Burr Oak Cemetery scandal to try and stop Hynes' rapid rise.

But today Quinn seemed combative and comfortable touting his achievements, especially those within the black community. He listed several upcoming projects that will boost employment in IL, including the 1/26 announcement that Ford Motor Co. will invest $400M and bring 1.2K jobs to IL in '10.

Hynes blasted Quinn for wanting to raise taxes on the middle class, an issue he's featured prominently in his mailers. But Quinn had a quick comeback ready. "Folks, listen very carefully, because whatever the comptroller is saying sounds good if you say it fast," Quinn interjected. "But you've got to look at the details."

Quinn also seemed better prepared for the format. He name-dropped seemingly every black leader in IL as a campaign supporter and close friend. By Hotline On Call's count, he listed 26 prominent leaders in the African-American community at large, ranging from Pres. Obama to Martin Luther King Jr. to Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-02). He even gave a shout out to the island of Haiti and its citizens.

Hynes began to sigh at every list of names. "Is anyone keeping track of how many names the governor drops?" Hynes said, frustrated. "I think we're approaching a record."

Near the end of the debate, Kelley brought up the black community's concerns about the "divisive" Washington ad and Washington's fraught relationship with Hynes' father in the '80s. At that point, Hynes seemed to fold and began to quote the ad. "My father's not running for governor," Hynes argued. "I'm running for governor."

Quinn, on the other hand, was on fire. "Mr. Hynes over here better be ashamed of himself," Quinn railed. "He's trying to run a divisive campaign to help himself personally."

Quinn finished the one-sided debate with a bang and a plea. "OK, folks, don't be fooled by my opponent. He ran down Barack Obama when Barack Obama was running for Senate." Quinn said. "Don't pay any attention to false, negative attacks. I'm counting on you."

In what is becoming a familiar refrain for Dems, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) could be facing a tough re-election fight, according to a new poll released today by a GOP survey firm.

The poll, conducted by OR-based Moore Information (R), shows Murray trailing two-time GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R) in a hypothetical matchup. Rossi, Moore Information pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser note, is the state's best-known GOPer, though he has not been mentioned as a potential candidate against Murray. Rossi has lost two close elections to Gov. Chris Gregiore (D); he notably declined to run in '06 against Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) to challenge a second time Gregoire in '08.

Moore Information surveyed 500 WA registered voters on Jan. 23 and 24, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

General Election Matchup

Rossi   45%
Murray  43

Rossi's performance in the survey against Murray, the Senate's 4th-ranking Dem, could indicate that Murray is vulnerable in this environment. (Indeed, Moore said that the goal of the poll was to see how vulnerable she is.) But that Rossi was tested also underscores the dearth of top-tier challengers to pit against Murray.

Alfalfa farmer/ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R) and motivational speaker/author Chris Widener (R) are the cream of a weak GOP crop right now. AG Rob McKenna (R) and Rep. Dave Reichert (R) would be near the top of the party's wish-list, but neither has shown any inclination of entering the race, though a Reichert spokesperson refused to rule out the possibility in an interview last week with the AP.

Still, WA SEN and GOV races have been something of a graveyard for even top-tier GOP candidates. In addition to Rossi's two losses to Gregoire, then-Reps. Linda Smith (R) and George Nethercutt (R) lost to Murray by double-digits in '98 and '04, and the self-funding Mike McGavick (R) couldn't even break 40% against Cantwell in '06. But if GOPers can win in NJ and MA these days, the GOP SEN nomination in WA might not be as worthless this year as it has been in the past.

HONOLULU, HI -- RNC chair Michael Steele lost his temper with reporters at a press availability this morning in which he defended his fundraising ability and his decision to hold a national committee meeting at a plush resort during difficult economic times.

In a combative presser, Steele admitted he has been "frustrated" with the way the meeting has been greeted, insisting that the party will compete for the GOV mansion and in a special House election later this year.

"I actually feel a little bit frustrated with the response of some in and outside of the media and elsewhere who have opined on the matter. Last time I checked, let's start with the obvious, Hawaii is a state in the union. The 50th I believe. So I think it's got the credentials to host us," Steele said.

He cited Gov. Linda Lingle (R), the outgoing incumbent and a former member of the RNC, whose 2 terms Steele said were an important example for the country.

"I thought it was fitting and appropriate to honor her service as one of the best Republican governors and I thought it was fitting and appropriate to honor her service as one of the best Republican governors and certainly one of the best governors I think for this state," Steele said. "And to be able to host our winter meeting here was part of that."

Steele also pushed back against critics, both on the committee and in the larger GOP, who have been critical of his handling of the party's finances. The RNC ended Dec. with just $8.4M in the bank, far less than the $22.8M he inherited when he took over the party. Despite a cash gap with the DNC, Steele said the GOP is in a "good spot."

"I don't know if you noticed what happened this past year. I won 2 -- we won 2 governorships. We won 26 out of 37 special elections. We bested the Democrats in, let's be conservative, 6 out of 6 months last year in fundraising, when we raised more than they did," Steele said, singling out this reporter. "Check your facts. I'm sure you will. But get it right, because you've been getting it wrong. And the facts are we raised $81 million last year."

In fact, the DNC outraised the RNC in 5 out of the 11 months Steele has been chairman, according to reports filed with the FEC. The DNC has not released their Dec. numbers. The RNC bested the DNC in 5 months. Steele's spokesperson clarified that the RNC has outraised the DNC in 6 on the 11 months this year, including last Jan., when KY national committeeman Mike Duncan was chair.

By Christopher Hopkins

"Fractures or fissures" will persist in Congress unless the WH joins with Republican lawmakers in revamping health care reform, NRSC Chair John Cornyn said this morning during a panel discussion with journalists. "I think there is an appetite for health care reform. It's just not that particular bill."

Cornyn was the first of four lawmakers and administration officials to take part in a "Congressional Debriefing," an event hosted by The Atlantic and National Journal the morning after Pres. Obama's first SOTU.

The senator was cool, but not outright critical, when asked to appraise the speech. The address was "more of a lecture, I thought, in tone," he said, but Obama "gives a great speech." He added: "It's not just what people say, it's what people do."

Cornyn did not address Obama's characterization of recalcitrant lawmakers who "just say 'no' to everything." When asked by National Journal's Ronald Brownstein if Congress is hobbled by the right of the minority to filibuster, Cornyn conceded that cloture votes "impede quick action on legislative goals." But he cautioned that when it comes to health care reform, "a national, one-size-fits-all" approach deprives states of their right to craft legislation best suited to their circumstances.

Cornyn was followed on the panel by two Dem lawmakers, both of whom sought to counter arguments that Scott Brown's recent MA SEN victory signaled public disenchantment with the health care legislation before Congress. Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA 31) insisted that "if you put the best ideas" into one bill, "you have a product the American public will be very proud of." And he said that if Congress fails to enact health care reform, insurance companies will "rule again."

MN Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) defended the Senate version of the health care bill, but when asked about an eleventh-hour deal struck with NE Sen. Ben Nelson (D) that requires the federal government to bear the costs of new Medicaid recipients in his home state, she said, "I didn't like it, I hated it." She was also measured in her praise for the president's first year in office, saying that even though he indicated in his address that he "was going to be a little tougher and call people out a little more," health care reform might have benefited if he had been more "prescriptive."

WH Comm. Dir. Dan Pfeiffer concluded the event by reaffirming Obama's resolve to pass health care legislation in the face of mounting "anti-Washington sentiment." When pressed by Brownstein, he resisted characterizing the SOTU address as a "course correction," saying that "all those things we needed to do last year, and we still need to do this year." He attributed a shift in the American public's attitude toward health care reform to the sheer size and scope of the legislation. Health care reform is "incredibly popular in theory," he said, "and then once the rubber hits the road, the numbers go down."

Click here for video highlights from the event.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) greeted Pres. Obama as he arrived in Tampa today to announce $1.25B in funding for high-speed rail.

But unlike at their last meeting, the two did not embrace.

"There was no hug this time, only a handshake, but it lingered about 27 seconds," New York Times' Zeleny, who was on pool duty, reported of the tarmac meeting this p.m. Obama "tightly gripped the governor's hand and clutched his arm," before VP Biden "gathered close for a tight photo of the three."

Crist's GOP primary opponent, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), has used images of the "man-hug" Crist and Obama shared at their previous encounter -- at a 2/10 event in Ft. Myers to promote the admin.'s stimulus package -- to link Crist to the unpopular legislation.

Crist walks a fine line in associating himself with the POTUS. On the one hand, appearing with Obama helps Crist burnish his bipartisan cred. But it also risks dampening his appeal with the GOP base and opens him up to criticism from the right that he has not been tough on spending. Judging from Rubio's recent gains in the polls, Crist may have more to lose than to gain from appearing with the POTUS -- with or without a hug.

Rep. Marcia Blackburn (R-TN) is the latest high-profile Tea Party supporter to back out of a convention billed as the first chance for the nationwide movement to come together as one.

Blackburn's office said today it would not be participating in the Tea Party Nation Convention, slated for Nashville next week, after consulting with the House ethics committee.

Convention organizers have come under fire after charging thousands of dollars for sponsorships, and for setting ticket prices well above what the average Tea Party activist can afford. Several sponsors pulled out after the lead organizer, Judson Phillips, said he had originally organized the convention in order to turn a profit.

"After consulting with the Committee on Standards, Congressman Blackburn has decided not to participate in the Tea Party Nation Convention next week. Standards advised Congressman Blackburn not to participate in the event due to uncertainty about how any proceeds from the event may be used," Blackburn's office told the Nashville Post. "Convention organizers have not been clear about how those funds will be put to use. We have every indication that any profit could be put to work to advance grass roots causes and some of those uses could make the Congressman's participation improper after the fact."

Later, Blackburn herself told Phillips she could not participate because of the group's for-profit status, which she said "has put many of his speakers in an awkward position."

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is still scheduled to appear at the convention. Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) will keynote the convention after organizers paid her $100K speaking fee. Palin has said she will not personally benefit from the money, meaning she will have to donate it to candidates or organizations on her own.

It went practically unnoticed amid the flurry of coverage of the MA SEN race.

Pres. Obama was about 15 minutes through a speech for AG Martha Coakley (D) in Boston on 1/17 when a heckler's voice broke through the applause. "Abortion!" the man cried, waving a sign that read, "Jesus Loves All Babies."

Obama was immediately taken off his stride. He paused for a moment, then tried to go on: "You -- you -- you need somebody --"

But the man continued yelling: "Innocent blood!"

The crowd booed. Some women screamed. Eventually, the crowd started cheering Coakley's name in an effort to drown the man out until police took him away -- a tactic that worked, until an 8-year-old boy took up the haranguing where the man left off.

"It's all right," the flustered-looking POTUS said over the tiny, piercing voice. "Hold up everybody. Hold up. Now, more than ever, you don't need" -- he paused for several more moments -- "just another politician who talks the talk."

The boy's shouting continued. "And you don't need just people yelling at each other," Obama continued. "Right now, what we need is somebody who's got a proven track record, a leader who has walked the walk."

The crowd applauded. The yelling stopped. And Obama, at last, continued on with his speech.

It was a telling moment in a campaign fraught with nat'l significance. The POTUS, flown in to help inject life into Coakley's floundering bid, instead allowed himself to get upstaged by angry protesters. He seemed to lack the sense of passion that had been motivating voters across the country -- a passion that explained, at least in part, Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R) upset victory.

The exchange was also indicative of a broader problem facing Dems as they head into this year's midterms: How will they respond to voters' frustration and anger?

2 top GOP recruits will quit their jobs to begin running for Congress, they have announced recently, giving the party a chance to test just how far the national mood has swung back their way.

State Sens. Jonathan Paton (R) and Jim Waring (R) have announced their intentions to resign in order to pursue House bids. Paton will run against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), while Waring is seeking to replace retiring Rep. John Shadegg (R).

Politicians in AZ must comply with a law that requires them to step down from their current public office before seeking another office. Waring will resign today, while Paton, who announced his resignation last week, has not set a date by which he will step down.

The law can rob AZ of its top elected officials at critical times, especially when a competitive seat opens. Gov. Jan Brewer (R) took the state's top job when Janet Napolitano moved to DHS; now, AG Terry Goddard (D) and Treas. Dean Martin (R) have resigned their posts to run against Brewer.

Paton's challenge to Giffords will be a canary in Dems' coalmine. Giffords easily beat a GOP rival who was too conservative for the district, and she held off a tough challenge from the state Senate pres. in '08 to win by 12 points, even though Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) topped the ballot.

Giffords is a fundraising machine, ending the 3rd quarter with $1.39M in the bank, and Paton -- or any of the 3 other GOPers running against her, including Iraq war vets Jesse Kelly (R) and Andrew Gross (R) and Afghanistan veteran Brian Miller (R) -- will have a difficult time making up the difference.

As Dems seek to tie themselves closely to their communities, few have worked harder than Giffords. If Giffords finds herself in political trouble later this year in her Tucson-based seat, Dems will know their efforts to win re-election by providing excellent constituent service is not working.

Waring, meanwhile, joins Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker (R), state Rep. Sam Crump (R) and state Sen. Pam Gorman (R) in the race to replace Shadegg. Ex-Shadegg CoS Sean Noble (R) is also considering the race.

Atty Jon Hulburd (D) is the only major candidate on the Dem side, and he is raising more money than many expected. But Dems are pining for Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon (D), who is apparently considering his options in the North Phoenix and Paradise Valley-based seat.

Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) and ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R-CA) are poised to mount competitive GOP challenges in this year's GOV and SEN races, respectively, according to a new poll released today.

The poll was conducted 1/12-19 by the Public Policy Institute of CA. PPIC surveyed 1,223 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. There was a subsample of 425 GOP primary LVs, for a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. The poll tested Whitman, Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) in the GOV race; and Campbell, Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R), ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

GOV Primary Election Matchup (GOP)

Whitman   41%
Poizner   11

GOV General Election Matchups

Brown     44%
Poizner   29

Brown     41%
Whitman   36

SEN Primary Election Matchup (GOP)

Campbell  27%
Fiorina   16
DeVore     8

SEN General Election Matchups

Boxer     45%
Campbell  41

Boxer     47%
DeVore    39

Boxer     48%
Fiorina   40

"World News" and "Evening News" each led with a preview of the State of the Union and featured an interview with WH CoS Rahm Emanuel. "Nightly News" led with an investigation into the AIG bonuses.

MSNBC's Matthews weighed in on Pres. Obama's 1/27 State of the Union.

MSNBC's Matthews, on Obama hating the bailout: "Thank God he said that because everybody does. I was trying to think about who he was tonight. And it is interesting. He`s post-racial by all appearances. I forgot he was black tonight for an hour. He has gone a long way to become a leader of this country and passed so much history in just a year or two. I mean it`s something we don`t even think about."

More Matthews: "I was watching. I said wait a minute. He is an African-American guy in front of a bunch of other white people and here he is president of the United States and we`ve completely forgotten that tonight, completely forgotten it. It was in the scope of his discussion, it was so broad ranging, so in tune with so many problems and aspects and aspects of American life that you don`t think in terms of the old tribalism, the old ethnicity" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 1/27).

After the jump, positive negative reax to Obama's speech, MSNBC's Matthews forgets Obama's race, and Emanuel on health care and his future.

The National Journal's Barnes reports this week that, in the wake of the MA SEN election and the sidelining of heath care reform, union presidents at the AFL-CIO exec cmte meeting on Jan. 25 discussed the idea of challenging incumbent Dems whom they feel have thwarted key initiatives of labor like EFCA and health care.

"When you're in the condition we're in, legislatively, you're looking around like a blinded doe; you're looking for means to pay back and make things better," said AFSCME pres. Gerald McEntee, who is also chair of the AFL-CIO's pol. cmte.

House Dem leaders were praised for its efforts and the focus of labor's ire was clearly on the Senate. Steelworkers pres. Leo Gerard: "A number of us expressed our dismay with some of the senators from the Democratic Party who have held up and helped delay not only the passage of the health care bill but all kinds of other things that would help middle-class workers."

Gerard said the issue of primary challenges will be put before executive board of the Steelworkers when it meets next month and that Democratic Sens. Joe Lieberman of CT, Blanche Lincoln of AR and Ben Nelson of NE will be specifically discussed in that context. To read the entire story, click here.

Some observations from inside the House last p.m.:

* Freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) parked himself right in the middle of the Republican section of the chamber and was flanked by fellow Dem Reps. Harry Teague and John Adler. Connolly's spokesman explained that they got to the floor later than many others, though their applause from the GOP section was at certain points somewhat jarring.

* There was an interruption toward the end of the speech from the floor on the Dem side of the chamber. When Pres. Obama said, "We are working with Muslim communities around the world to promote science, education and innovation," there was a loud comment from a man with an accent - made a comment followed by "Mr. President." Staff in the House gallery later said that because the heckler was seated in the diplomatic section on the floor, he was not escorted out, and they don't know who "shut him up."

* Some Dems took many of Obama's comments about either missteps or setbacks as comments in jest and laughed at them.

* House Min. Leader John Boehner raised his hand high and rose to his feet before the rest of the chamber when Obama made the following comment, "But if anyone from either party has a better approach that will bring down premiums, bring down the deficit, cover the uninsured, strengthen Medicare for seniors, and stop insurance company abuses, let me know." Arizona Republican Rep. John Shadegg, seated across the aisle and several rows behind Boehner, followed him in doing so as the rest of the chamber rose and applauded.

* The GOPer who appeared most disinterested in many of the applause lines was Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), who stayed seated at times when most of the rest of the GOP section rose. At times he was joined by a House GOPer from his delegation who was also elected in '08, Rep. Gregg Harper. Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) also avoided much of the applause, but he was more engaged than he was during Obama's health care speech before the joint session last year when he stayed seated for nearly the entirety of the speech with arms crossed.

Hackers struck at least 10 House websites overnight, substituting expletives aimed at Pres. Obama just hours after his State of the Union address.

The hackers targeted many House Dem freshmen, including Reps. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM), Harry Teague (D-NM), John Boccieri (D-OH) and Steve Driehaus (D-OH), as well as at least 5 other more senior Dems and the site owned by GOPers on the House Oversight Committee.

"F--- OBAMA!! Red Eye CREW !!!!! O RESTO E HACKER!!! by HADES; m4V3RiCk; T4ph0d4 -- FROM BRASIL," the messages read.

The Red Eye Crew has been responsible for other hacks before. The group claimed credit for hacking a site belonging to Old Dominion Univ. in '08 and Wieden + Kennedy, a New York ad agency.

A screen shot of Rep. Russ Carnahan's (D-MO) hacked website is displayed.

The Hotline's editors had a lively email exchange tonight during Pres. Obama's SoTU address, and we thought we'd share some of the highlights with you. (Note: It's best to start reading from the bottom, to get the sequence and chronology).

* A word cloud will be fascinating in that for all the talk of "inheriting" 2 wars it was addressed at the very end of his speech for like 3 mins.

* Funny my [Blue Dog source] thot the "don't run for the hills" line was aimed at liberals who aren't supporting the senate hc bill.

* So he acknowledges mistakes with "lobbying and horse trading" on health care. Does that take Senate Dems to task for the "Louisiana Purchase" and "Cornhusker Kickback"?

* Meanwhile that 'don't run for the hills" line had to piss off blue dogs

* And when he said "don't head for the hills," he was saying, you'll have better electorial luck if we can get stuff passed than if we seem incompetent.

* Good line to Dems about their majorities. It's really been lost that they still have HUGE majorities.

* Oooooh, he's issuing an exec order to create a fiscal commission. That's some tuff stuff, Mr. President.

* Well, they didn't applaud the healthcare stuff, which means they support killing children. BTW, I imagine the GOP has handy a list of Obama filibusters from when he was in the Senate.

* Shouldn't GOPers applaud the obstruction line? Otherwise, do they appear to support obstructionism?

* Just realized that Biden's tie and Pelosi's suit are color coordinated. They look like prom dates.

* Regardless, there's certainly enough in here for GOPers to claim it was a partisan, polarizing, blame-gaming speech, esp. given the "8 years" line. I suspect they will come out saying something like that.

* Notice, still no mention of George W. Bush's name. Altho I guess that would be particularly crass, given the setting.

* Laugh line coming up: "And by now it should be fairly obvious that I didn't take on health care because it was good politics. " Also, note that he brings in Michelle in that graf... Maybe he thinks people will trust her when it comes to selling healthcare?

* Looking forward a bit, how can he forgive more student loan debts if they're freezing non defense spending?

* Meanwhile we are 30 mins into this before we hear the word health care. Seriously he's talking about "clean energy" before he talks health care bill?

* I'm sure the NRCC is prepping releases saying "Does Rick Boucher agree with Barack Obama on the Energy/Climate bill?" etc....

* There are a few lines where he's really trying to subtly still toss out the idea that "things may be f'ed now, but they were worse when I got here, so don't blame me."

* Notice, he continues to lay blame on the policies of the past eight years, without specifically using the name "George W. Bush."

* "That's right the recovery act." I'm surprised he didn't do the Jay Z brush off. However, it's important to see how he's defending the stimulus. Will this be the roadmap/narrative that plouffe recommends for Dems to use in mid terms.

* Breaking News: Congress supports jobs.

* It still goes back to this whole thing that Dems believe this is a message problem not a policy problem.

* GOPers not applauding for the tax-cutting lines may illuminate a point. Will Obama get credit for the taxes he's cut if people believe he's going to raise others with the health care bill?

* Ah hah! It only took him 5 minutes to utter the word "hope"(ful).

* And to start off acknowledging the fact that Americans want these guys to get stuff done instead of bickering. He's lecturing Congress which helps him look better but does nothing to help Congress in '10. Bank bail-out line was very smart

* His early theme is good/smart - This is a storm we knew we were heading into. The struggle was anticipated. We're "on course."

Members of a committee of state party chairmen voted unanimously today to oppose a so-called "purity test" for GOP candidates, according to a source in the closed-press meeting.

The committee voted to stand against the resolution, offered by IN RNC member Jim Bopp, that would give the party chair the power to cut off funding from a candidate who did not meet at least 8 of 10 ideological benchmarks.

Bopp, who heads a conservative group of RNC members, submitted the resolution in order to clarify the party's principles and avoid a repeat of the NY-23 race this year, where a conservative 3rd-party candidate got more support from GOP voters than the party's own nominee. Bopp told Hotline OnCall in Nov. that his resolution was aimed at preventing the party from spending money on candidates who damage the GOP brand.

The resolution will be voted on at the semi-annual RNC meeting taking place in Honolulu this week.

Hotline OnCall will provide live coverage of the event, as well as a key Resolutions Committee meeting at which Bopp's proposal will be discussed.

On the eve of an appearance with Pres. Obama in Tampa, a new poll out today shows CFO Alex Sink (D) slipping farther behind AG Bill McCollum (R) in the race to replace FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R).

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted 1/20-24, surveyed 1,618 RVs for a margin of error of +/- 2.4%. A subsample of 673 GOPers had a margin of error of +/- 3.8%. McCollum, Sink and state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) were tested.

Primary Election Matchup (GOP)

McCollum  44%
Dockery    6

General Election Matchups

McCollum  41%
Sink      31

Sink      35%
Dockery   29

Sink will appear tomorrow with Obama at an event announcing the allocation of stimulus money for high-speed rail in the state. But Obama, according to the poll, is not terribly popular either. Just 45% of FL voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 50% disapprove.

Still, Obama's appearance may help Sink unite Dems around her candidacy as Nov. nears. According to the poll, Dems break 68-8% for Sink, with 22% undecided. GOPers, on the other hand, are behind McCollum 84-4%, with just 11% undecided.

Furthermore, just 40% of Dem voters knew enough about Sink to form an opinion (36% favorable, 4% unfavorable), while McCollum's name recognition among his GOP base is higher (50% favorable, 6% unfavorable).

The last time Quinnipiac polled the race, in mid Oct., McCollum's lead over Sink was just four points. Both candidates favorability ratings held steady over the past three months.

For her part, Sink seems unfazed by the Q poll.

"We're 10 months out from the election," she said today, according to report from the St. Petersburg Times. "Wasn't Scott Brown 38 points behind?"

Rep. Paul Hodes (D-02) announced he has raised $701K+ in 4thQ '09 and has $1.43M CoH. Hodes has raised over $2.3M during his SEN run.

Meanwhile, ex-AG Kelly Ayotte's (R) camp today reported raising over $630K in 4thQ '09 and ending the year with $996K CoH. Ayotte has raised $1.24M during her run.

Earlier this week, businessman Jim Bender (R) announced he had raised $602K in the 4thQ. However, $500K of that sum was a personal loan. Bender reported $545K CoH. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) announced earlier this month that his camp raised $247K in 4thQ of '09, loaning his camp $1.26M and rounding out the year with 1.18M CoH.

Without any serious Dem competition, Hodes has been able to solidify his frontrunner position. Yet he still runs behind Ayotte. An American Research Group poll released Dec. 31 showed Ayotte leading Hodes 43-36% in a general election matchup.

Ayotte has staked out her position as the GOP frontrunner in the race. However, her primary rivals may be able to eat into her lead; Both Binnie and Bender also have the capacity to pour their own money into their camps, should they need to. Binnie has already gone up with TV ads, and Bender has announced he will follow suit, and go up on TV the week of Feb. 2.

Update I: Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) announced this afternoon that he will support Bernanke. Update II: Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Sam Brownback (R-KS) said they will vote against Bernanke. Update III: Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) will vote in favor of Bernanke. Update IV: Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) will vote against the nomination.

While Treasury Sec. Tim Geithner and ex-Treas. Sec. Hank Paulson endure a grilling before the House Oversight and Gov't Reform Cmte today, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke appears to be safely en route to reconfirmation.

The latest Hotline tally shows 55 senators committed or leaning toward voting in favor, while 23 have said they will vote no. Bernanke must have 60 supporters to make it to a second term, according to Senate rules.

Amid signs of increasing support for the embattled Fed chief, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has scheduled a vote on Bernanke's reconfirmation for 1:30 p.m. tomorrow, following a vote on raising the nat'l debt limit. Bernanke's term ends on Sunday.

Just 22 senators remain uncommitted, down from 35 yesterday afternoon. Many of those remaining mum have cited concerns about Bernanke's record during his first years in office.

A complete vote-count, compiled by Hotline OnCall, after the jump. Check back ahead of tomorrow's vote and we'll keep you updated with the latest tallies.

Ex-Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D) is teaching a class about contemporary domestic policy at NYU's Wagner School of Public Service. Ford, to his students: "I'm in the middle of making an important decision about my own person and political future. I am unsure over the next few weeks what my schedule will be."

Ford was met on his first day this week with an evacuation order after "someone pulled a fire alarm." Ford and his 50-plus graduate students went to "another building and commandeered a new space" as they begun their lesson about the MA SEN special election race.

Ford: (It was) probably as momentous a nonpresidential election as I have seen." Ford "seemed" to be "easygoing" in his role as prof., calling one student "My man!" after he answered a question correctly. Ford's homework assignment to his students: watch tonight's SOTU address and compare it to Bill Clinton's '95 address.

By Tim Sahd

Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA) announced this a.m. that he's running for re-election, taking a name off the list of potential Dem retirements.

"I have given no consideration to retiring," he wrote in a statement. "While I never make political announcements this early in the year, due to the press inquires we are receiving, it is time to remove any doubt anyone has about my intentions."

Boucher's Southwestern VA CD is heavily GOP -- it gave John McCain 59% in '08 -- but Boucher has proved to be resilient, winning regularly with more than 60%. GOPers consider him a target this cycle, though, as he took a risky vote for cap-and-trade in this coal-dependent CD.

But an open seat would've been a practical gimmie for the GOP. With Boucher confirming his re-election plans, winning the seat will be a tougher task. He's got over $1.7M in the bank, and GOPers have yet to find a top-tier recruit to challenge him. Del. Morgan Griffith (R), though, is still considering a bid.

RNC chair Michael Steele has faced perhaps the rockiest year of any party chair in modern times, and as his national committee heads to Honolulu for a semi-annual meeting, there are no shortage of members ready to tell him about it.

But Steele is in no serious danger of being removed as party chair. After all, who can argue with results? The party has won GOV races in VA and NJ and a Senate seat in MA, and whether or not Steele deserves the credit, he has claimed it, and RNC members and allies have taken note.

Still, with a year to go in his term as chair, Steele will face pressure less from rival Dems than from within his own party. Today, as we head to the RNC's winter meeting, we offer a preview of the 5 groups and people who have caused Steele the most pain -- and who will continue to do so:

The Old Bulls: Steele did not serve on the RNC when he was elected chair, and he did not make inroads with key members who hold disproportionate amounts of power. When those old bulls wanted to add routine checks on the chair's power to spend big money, Steele erupted, and in a flurry of nasty emails threatened to resign.

Eventually, the old bulls got their spending resolution passed, and Steele described it as a win. Now, the chairman talks regularly with members like NJ committeeman David Norcross, MA committeeman Ron Kaufman and others. But they are sticklers for the old ways of business, when the party chair served as a fundraiser rather than a public face for the GOP. They are also the first to take public swipes at Steele, as Norcross did when he suggested party leaders were taking a look at a resolution that could force Steele to end his book tour or donate proceeds to the party.

Congressional Leadership: Members of Congress do not trust Steele, and they have made it clear to him on several occasions that he should not make policy. Members in both chambers have told Steele to stop suggesting GOP office holders could be punished for their public stands, too. And after Steele said he did not believe the party could retake the House, a routine conference call became a forum for senior Congressional aides to beseech RNC communications staffers to keep Steele quiet.

Meanwhile, Steele's book of GOP principles came as a surprise to GOP leaders who have actually won elections. That angered many political strategists who worried that their candidates will now have to answer for policy prescriptions that were never vetted by party officials. The fact that Steele is making money off the book only makes GOP leaders chaffe more.

Congressional aides and political consultants around the city are fully aware that Steele will try to take credit for GOP wins this Nov., as he has for the party's wins in VA, NJ and MA. But those upset with the way Steele has handled his committee, and with the lack of support he has given to Hill GOPers, are quietly working behind the scenes to deny Steele any credit. Harmony will reign in public, but in private, top members of Congress are grumbling that Steele has been an ineffective shepherd of the party brand.

Big Donors: It is little secret that, under Steele's tenure, fundraising costs have skyrocketed. Small-dollar donations, whether contributed by phone, mail or internet, cost more per capita than big checks someone writes once or twice a cycle. RNC officials argue that the gambit will pay off over the next decade, but feelings, even among RNC members, have been hurt, and an upset big donor is not a generous big donor.

A new poll out today shows that Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) are tied among RVs, but Toomey has opened a solid lead among those who say they're most likely to vote.

The Franklin & Marshall College poll, conducted for a consortium of PA news orgs, surveyed 1165 adults, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%. There was a subsample of 993 RVs, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. There were 395 voters who IDed themselves as "likely," for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Additionally, Specter was tested in a primary matchup with Rep. Joe Sestak (D) among 443 registered Dems, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.

Primary Election Matchup

-        RVs
Specter  30%
Sestak   13

General Election Matchups

-        RVs LVs
Toomey   30% 45%
Specter  30  31

-        RVs LVs
Toomey   28% 41%
Sestak   16  19

Specter has yet to seal the deal with Dems still adjusting to his party switch last year. Just 56% of Dem LVs support him, while Toomey captures the backing of 71% of GOP LVs. But Specter actually leads Toomey -- who is trying to build a statewide profile -- among indie LVs, 32-24%, with more than 3-in-10 indies still undecided.

The poll shows that most PA voters haven't made up their minds about Toomey. Just 15% view him favorably, while 7% view him unfavorably. The number of voters who haven't heard of him or have no opinion has actually risen from last surveys last Aug. and Oct.

Specter, on the other hand, is a known, but disliked, commodity. Just 35% view him favorably, while 43% view him unfavorably.

Sestak trails Specter by a significant margin among Dems, but there is room for improvement before the May 18 primary: Fully 86% of PA voters either have no opinion or no knowledge of Sestak.

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the Toyota recall.

ACORN CEO Bertha Lewis went on the "Ed Show" 1/26 p.m. to discuss the arrest of filmmaker-activist James O'Keefe.

Lewis, on O'Keefe's involvement in the attempted wiretapping: "Finally, people will see Mr. O`Keefe for what we knew him to be. Whatever his views are, he will break the law in order to further his agenda. He broke the law when he taped us. He broke the law when he entered Mary Landrieu`s office. And so we think that people in Maryland, California, Pennsylvania, those authorities should also see him for what he really is."

Lewis, on whether O'Keefe's arrest will change the "landscape" of ACORN's "situation": "I don`t know. We shall see if it actually does. The rush to judgment of Acorn by some media and even Congress and funders and other people, without actually looking behind the scenes to see exactly this guy`s methodology. Now, finally, I think people can see that this is who they`re dealing with. He is no hero. He really is a criminal."

After the jump, WH OMG dir. Peter Orszag addresses his personal life, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman(R) on her image, and ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) on his AZ SEN run.

Good Wednesday morning. Today, RNC members hit the beach in Waikiki. Here's hoping they enjoy the surf.

Here's today's special State Of The Union edition of the Starting Lineup. Will Obama's message tonight only serve to depress his liberal base even more. And, why is the head of the GOP in Hawaii instead of DC?

SPENDING FREEZES: Just over a year after he was inaugurated, Obama faces yet another difficult selling job. But this one is aimed at Dems, who are growing increasingly skeptical of their own party's agenda.

In tonight's State of the Union address, Obama will announce a freeze on non-discretionary, non-emergency, domestic spending in an effort to show he is serious about cutting the budget deficit. The proposal will not please GOPers, who believe Obama has spent too much already, and it will not make liberal Dems happy, given that the proposal will likely impact the poor more than anyone else.

House Dems have already been asked to take a number of difficult votes this year, whether for health care, cap and trade or the stimulus plan. Backing a spending freeze won't mollify their GOP critics, but it could further depress the Dem base -- the last thing the bruised and battered party needs right now.

DADT: The WH has asked the Senate Armed Services Cmte not to hold hearings on a repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" before the annual speech, because Obama may mention it tonight. But WH advisers now say Obama may not mention DADT, even though language has been drafted.

Gay rights are another area in which Obama has disappointed liberals -- he has made little progress on DADT, even though he has allowed same-sex couples to take part in their partners' benefits. But his moves towards repealing DADT have given any who oppose Obama the chance to define him as a liberal, even if he doesn't achieve goals liberals want to see.

Hotline On Call has acquired a copy of the new John Edwards expose "The Politician," by longtime staffer/professional fall guy Andrew Young. Intended for release Feb. 2, the book chronicles the Edwards-Young relationship and reveals how Young was sucked into a cover-up that spanned a WH campaign.

Young details the often slavish loyalty he demonstrated to the Edwards family during the lengthy affair the candidate had with Rielle Hunter. Despite outlandish requests and increasingly complicated lies, Young says he remained loyal to Edwards until he grew impatient with Edwards' denial of paternity for Hunter's child ... or at least until Young ran out of money.

On Jan. 21st Edwards admitted he was the father of Hunter's daughter, Frances Quinn, in anticipation of this book's release.

Young began working for Edwards more than 10 years ago on his first SEN race, and worked his way up to become the operations mgr in WH '04. By '06, he was Edwards' confidante. He eventually became the liaison between Hunter and Edwards. He was responsible for getting her in and out of the senator's room on the trail so other staffers wouldn't become suspicious. He was the keeper of the "Batphone," the cell phone Hunter gave to Edwards so she could reach him privately.

Young even arranged for Hunter to interview Edwards' parents and meet his children at the family's NC mansion.

In early '07, the story started to unravel when Elizabeth Edwards became suspicious of Hunter after Elizabeth answered a call on the "Batphone." Edwards admitted to his wife a one-night stand. But Edwards then claimed Hunter was still present on the campaign trail because Young was having an affair with her.

After Hunter became pregnant, Edwards and Young negotiated an arrangement that would protect the candidate from detection by the suspicious media. Young released a statement claiming an affair with Hunter. She moved in with Young and his family, and he hid her from the paparazzi.

Edwards maintained the masquerade after he dropped his WH'08 bid because he was convinced he was a frontrunner for Barack Obama's VP spot. Edwards even told Young that he had seen Obama's internal polls that said he was strongest of all possible VP candidates in OH and PA. That aspiration was extinguished after the Beverly Hilton-National Enquirer run-in in Jul. '08.

The FBI on Monday arrested James O'Keefe, the 25-year-old activist and filmmaker famous for the undercover videos that helped cripple the community association ACORN, for attempting to wiretap the New Orleans office of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), the New Orleans Times-Picayune reported today.

Also arrested were Stan Dai, 24; Robert Flanagan, 24; and Joseph Basel, 24. The AP reported that at least two of the suspects were dressed in work clothes and construction hats and claimed they were technicians for a telephone company. The 4 men were each charged with entering federal property under false pretenses with the intent of committing a felony.

A news release from the US Attorney's office in eastern LA said the 4 men walked into Landrieu's office in the Hale Boggs Federal Building in New Orleans on Monday. Flanagan and Basel were dressed as phone repairmen. O'Keefe was already in the office with a cell phone camera recording his alleged accomplices.

O'Keefe gained fame and notoriety last year when, dressed as a pimp, he videotaped ACORN employees advising him and a female companion about running a prostitution scheme. The Times-Picayune reported that O'Keefe gave a speech on Jan. 21 to Libertarian Pelican Institute in New Orleans about investigative reporting and the role of new media.

"Because the details of yesterday's incident are part of an ongoing investigation by federal authorities, our office cannot comment at this time," said Aaron Saunders, Landrieu's communications director.

Calls to the FBI and U.S. Atty's office in New Orleans were not immediately returned. If convicted, all 4 could face a maximum of 10 years in prison and a $250K fine.

Update: Conservative blogger Dan Riehl has more details on 2 of O'Keefe's alleged associates.

Ex-AG Kelly Ayotte's (R) camp has released an internal polling memo that shows she has a sizeable lead over her GOP competition.

The poll, conducted by The Tarrance Group, finds that 43% of likely GOP primary voters indicate they would vote for her, while 11% say they would vote for '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R). Businessman Bill Binnie (R) garners 5% while businessman Jim Bender (R) gets 3%. 37% are undecided.

The poll of 504 likely GOP voters was conducted Jan. 13-14, for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Ayotte leads among both women (+38) and men (+27), and she has smaller but significant leads among pro-life voters (+23) and those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (+15).

Still, the poll does not tell the whole story. Binnie, a wealthy businessman who has staked out more moderate territory in the race, began running the first TV ads in the race on Jan. 12, the day before the poll went into the field. Bender has said he will begin running his own ads the week of Feb. 7, after loaning his campaign $500K last quarter.

Ayotte remains "far and away the most well known and most popular of all the candidates," according to her polling memo. Still, there's a long way to go before the Sept. 14 primary, and 2 candidates are already taking concrete action to boost their own name recognition. Ayotte's early advantage is not likely to be so dramatic the next time a survey comes out.

VP Joe Biden, one of a small handful of senators who served the last time Dems had 60 votes in the Senate, downplayed losing MA's seat last week and said Dems are far from political disaster.

"Yes it's had a practical impact, but I'm not so sure what a blessing 60 votes was. Not a joke, I mean it sincerely," Biden told the DNC Finance Committee today in DC. "When we had sixty votes there was the expectation left, right, and center that we could do everything we wanted to do, which was never realistic. Never."

Biden, who was first elected in '72, was in the Senate when Dems held 61 seats following the '76 elections. Dems lost 3 seats in '78, to fall to 58 seats, and 12 seats in Ronald Reagan's '80 landslide.

Biden said losing the seat once held by Sen. Ted Kennedy was a psychological blow, but that the loss taught the party a valuable lesson.

"The reports of our demise are premature. It's time everybody take a deep breath, take a deep breath, let's put this in perspective. Yeah, we took a hit and the frustration was aggravated by the fact that Teddy's seat was lost," he said. "That makes it sound more profound than it is."

"Look, we understand that people are frustrated," Biden said, according to a pool report of the event. "If the Lord Almighty were president why wouldn't they be frustrated? There's over 10 million people unemployed."

The DNC's top money panel met in DC for a regular quarterly meeting. The panel includes many of Obama's top donors and those who have long given hefty sums to the DNC. Today, the panel heard from Biden, DNC chair Tim Kaine and the WH political team, among others.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) will oppose Dem efforts to move health care legislation through Congress using budget reconciliation, hurting Dems' chances for using the controversial parliamentary maneuver to pass a reform bill.

"I am opposed to and will fight against any attempts to push through changes to the Senate health insurance reform legislation by using budget reconciliation tactics that would allow the Senate to pass a package of changes to our original bill with 51 votes," Lincoln said in a statement on Tuesday. "I have successfully fought for transparency throughout Senate deliberations on health care, and I will continue to do so."

"I will not accept any last-minute efforts to force changes to health insurance reform issues through budget reconciliation, and neither will Arkansans. We have worked too long and too hard on this reform effort - we need to get it right," she said.

Budget reconciliation is a parliamentary maneuver that would allow the Senate to pass health care reform legislation with just 51 votes, instead of the 60 needed to cut off a filibuster.

Lincoln faces a tough re-election bid, thanks in some part to her support for health care legislation. In a recent poll, she trails one GOP rival and fails to break even 45% against others, all of whom are virtually unknown by the AR electorate. Lincoln has more than $5M in the bank, according to her campaign, but unlike other endangered Dems, she has yet to begin advertising.

"The concerns that I hear from Arkansans continue to guide my decisions on health insurance reform. Congress has now reached a critical juncture, and I believe the only way to proceed is deliberately and thoughtfully," Lincoln said. "In the meantime, Congress also has other important work that is underway and that the American people are relying on us to complete. My number one priority is to rebuild our nation's economy and put people back to work."

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) announced this a.m. that he raised $1.75M in the 4thQ '09, nearly matching FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) total during the same period.

The numbers are more good news for Rubio, whose campaign seems to be riding a wave of momentum bolstered by any number of conservative victories, from Doug Hoffman's candidacy in NY-23 to Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R) win in MA to Rubio's own victories in straw polls across FL.

Now, a new Quinnipiac poll out this a.m. shows Rubio leading Crist for the first time. And an endorsement by ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R) could be a matter of "when," not "if," following the endorsement of Bush's son, George P. Bush, last week.

Despite his impressive 4thQ haul, Rubio still lags far behind Crist in terms of CoH. Crist currently has a hefty $7.5M in his war chest, dwarfing Rubio's $2M. That means Crist is well-positioned going into the seven months remaining until the 8/24 GOP primary.

Crist's haul over the last quarter was $2M, still an impressive amount of cash but far off the break-neck pace Crist set over the race's first several months.

When Rubio was dragging in polling and fundraising, the Crist camp remained disengaged. But in recent months, that's changed, with Crist and aides now actively pursuing an offensive against Rubio's record on spending and immigration.

But thus far, that offensive hasn't forced Crist to dip into his campaign coffers for any significant expenditures against his conservative opponent.

If Rubio is indeed riding a Brown-like wave of momentum, Crist might do well to learn from the missteps of MA AG
Martha Coakley (D) and start spending -- soon.

In the war of words between Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) '06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D), Gillbrand responded this p.m. via Twitter to one of Ford's latest attacks.

"Parakeet?" tweeted Gillibrand. "I wouldn't allow my 6 yr old to engage in this kind of namecalling. And HF thinks he should be Senator?"

Her tweet came in response to Ford's remark 1/25 on Talk 1300 during the "Live from the state Capitol" show hosted by New York Post columnist Frederic Dicker. Ford said a senator should not "be a parakeet or to take instructions" from the Democratic leadership.

Ford's camp has hammered Gillibrand for being too close to party bosses while NY Dems have recently said Gillibrand should fight back harder against Ford.

One day before her first anniversary in the Senate, Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) leads '06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) by 13 points in a new poll of Dem primary LVs.

The poll was conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal blog DailyKos.com (the blog's founder and publisher opposes Ford's candidacy). R2K surveyed 600 Dem primary LVs from Jan. 18 to Jan. 20. The poll -- which tests Gillibrand, Ford and '06 candidate Jonathan Tasini -- carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.

SEN Primary Election Matchup

Gillibrand  41%
Ford        27
Tasini       3

GOV Primary Election Matchup

Cuomo       63%
Paterson    19

Only 48% of Dem primary voters view Gillibrand favorably, while 26% view her unfavorably. Fully 28% of Dem primary voters have no opinion of Gillibrand.

While nearly half of primary voters have no opinion of Ford, he does not suffer from the same kind of unfavorability as the appointee; Ford's fav/unfav rating stands at 40%/13%.

Other polls conducted earlier this month, including surveys by Marist and Siena colleges, have shown larger leads for Gillibrand. The Marist poll (1/13-14) gave Gillibrand a 43-24% lead, while the Siena poll (1/10-14) showed Gillibrand with a 41-17% advantage.

But the fact that Gillibrand hovers well below 50% in primary matchups in all three polls should buoy Ford, who's engaged in a massive effort to introduce himself to NY voters with TV interviews, local newspaper op-eds and personal appearances -- something Gillibrand has arguably failed to do during her year in the Senate. Gillibrand captures 50% of the vote against Ford in her native Upstate, but she earns only 39% in NYC and 36% in the suburbs around the Big Apple.

House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence will not challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), he said in a letter to supporters released this morning.

Pence thanked backers for their outpouring of support, but passed on what could have been a competitive race. Pence met with NRSC officials last week and spoke with top GOP Sens about the possibility of making a bid.

That leaves Bayh facing ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), who lost his seat by a wide margin in '06.

Pence's letter to supporters, first reported by RedState's Erick Erickson, below the jump.

The Brady Bunch had it right. When it's time to change, you've got to rearrange.

Last night, in an interview with ABC's Diane Sawyer, Pres. Obama addressed a specific point of criticism that has dogged him for months. During the '08 Dem primary, in a veiled attempt to ridicule then-Sen. Hillary Clinton's failed '94 closed-door health care reform effort, candidate Obama pledged transparency in his efforts, going so far to say over and over in his stump, "...and we're gonna do it on C-SPAN."

But as he deferred to Congress, the doors stayed closed, and montages of Obama making the pledge ad nauseum aired on programs ranging from Sunday morning shows to the "Daily Show."

He addressed the issue last p.m. on "World News": "I think your question points out to a legitimate mistake that I made during the course of the year, and that is that we had to make so many decisions quickly, in a very difficult set of circumstances, that after awhile, we started worrying more about getting the policy right than getting the process right."

More Obama: "But I had campaigned on process. Part of what I had campaigned on was changing how Washington works, opening up transparency and I think the health care debate, as it unfolded, legitimately raised concerns, not just among my opponents, but also among supporters that we just don't know what's going on. And it's an ugly process and it looks like there are a bunch of back room deals."

The comments are a stark difference from a 12/27 discussion on ABC's "This Week" between WH press sec. Robert Gibbs and ABC WH corre. Jake Tapper. With a freshly passed Senate bill and in the pre-Scott Brown era, the president's spokesperson tried to play off that the campaign commitment had been fulfilled, with the logic that C-SPAN cameras tape Senate and House floor debate in their chambers.

Tapper: "Will the president open up the doors for this final negotiation? He's in charge of it. It's going to be taking place at the West Wing. You have Democratic leaders from the House and Senate reconciling this House and Senate bill. Will he commit to opening up that process to C-SPAN cameras so we can see how this happens?"

Update I: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) announced his intention to vote for Bernanke in a statement released this morning. Update II: Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) announced this p.m. that he will vote against Bernanke's reconfirmation, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) will vote yes. Update III: Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) said this afternoon he has lost faith in Bernanke and will vote against him.

The clock on Fed chief Ben Bernanke's first term is running down, but Senate leaders have yet to schedule a vote on his reconfirmation. Still, with just a few days left before Bernanke's term ends on Sunday, momentum appears on his side.

On Monday, aides to several Dem senators told Hotline OnCall their bosses would vote for Bernanke's confirmation, while just one -- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) -- formally announced he would oppose Bernanke.

Countering McCain, Sens. Paul Kirk (D-MA), Kay Hagan (D-NC), Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) all told us they would vote for Bernanke, while Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) said they are leaning toward voting yes.

The latest tally shows 45 senators committed or leaning toward voting in favor, while 20 have said they will vote no. Senate rules dictate Bernanke must have 60 supporters to make it to a second term.

But 35 senators remain uncommitted, and many have said they are concerned about Bernanke's record during his first years in office.

The WH and Senate leaders have expressed confidence they will have the votes they need. Still, underscoring the trouble some members have with Bernanke's renomination, even the top GOPer in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, has refused to disclose how he would vote.

What was supposed to be an easy confirmation became more difficult recently as populist anger has surged across the nation. It has even cost Bernanke a certain vote; Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) voted for Bernanke when his nomination came before the Banking Committee, but Brown has said he is rethinking that vote.

There is little ideological harmony in those who have said they will vote for Bernanke. They include 12 GOPers, ranging from conservative Sens. Mike Johanns (R-NE) and Richard Burr (R-NC) to more centrist Sens. George Voinovich (R-OH) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Dems backing Bernanke include liberals like John Kerry (D-RI) and Chris Dodd (D-CT) and centrists Mark Warner (D-VA) and Evan Bayh (D-IN). Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) will also back Bernanke.

Too, the ideological gaps among those opposed to Bernanke are just as large. Sens. Jim Bunning (R-KY) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) have joined Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Russ Feingold (D-WI) in voicing opposition.

No vote has been scheduled yet. Bernanke's term expires on Sunday.

A complete vote-count, compiled by Hotline OnCall, after the jump. Check back over the coming days and we'll keep you updated with the latest tallies.

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) has taken a lead over FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), the first time the conservative challenger has led Crist in a live-call poll.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted 1/20-24, surveyed 1,618 FL voters for a margin of error of +/- 2.4%. A subsample of 673 GOPers had a margin of error of +/- 3.8%. Crist, Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) were tested.

Rubio       47 (+12 from last, 10/21)
Crist       44 (-6)

Crist       48 (-3)   Rubio       44 (+11)
Meek        36 (+5)   Meek        35 (-1)

Rubio's lead, which comes after winning a series of straw polls around the state and follows a torrent of media interest in the campaign, is within the margin of error, but the amount of movement is stunning. Crist has the millions in the bank to fight back, but with trends like this, few will be surprised if and when he begins running commercials early in the year.

Along with a lead, Rubio's favorable ratings have risen as well, up 8 points over the last 3 months. Among GOP voters, Rubio is seen favorably by 53% and unfavorably by just 4%. Meanwhile, Crist's approval dropped 6 points over the same period, and he has a less-than-stellar 64%-27% rating among GOP voters.

Rubio and Crist are statistically tied among GOP voters when asked who they trust most to do what they promise during the campaigns, and Rubio has a slight edge, 45%-40%, among GOP voters when asked who most shares their values. Rubio also sports a 14-point lead when GOP voters are asked which candidate is the most consistently conservative.

Meanwhile, though he will benefit from an Aug. 24 primary that could deplete his eventual foe's warchest, Meek has a long way to go before FL voters actually know who he is. Just 26% know enough about the likely Dem nominee to rate him; his fav/unfav rating stands at 18%-8%.

"World News" led with an interview with Pres. Obama. "Evening News" led with Obama and the economy. "Nightly News" led with the Haiti relief effort.

ABC's Sawyer sat down for an interview with Obama 1/25.

Obama, on whether he's a one term POTUS: "I would say that the one thing I'm clear about is that I'd rather be a really good one-term president, then a mediocre two-term president. And I believe that. You know, there's a tendency in Washington to think that our job description of elected officials is to get re-elected. That's not our job description. When your poll numbers drop, you're an idiot."

More Obama: "When you poll numbers are high, you're a genius. If my poll numbers are low, then I'm cool and cerebral and cold and detached. If my poll numbers are high, well, he's calm and reasoned."

Obama: "I will not slow down in terms of going after the big problems that this country face. The easiest thing for me to do would be to go small bore, avoid controversy, just make sure that everybody's comfortable and we only propose things that don't threaten any special interests in Washington."

After the jump, more Obama, two senators from opposite ends of the spectrum weigh in on Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicts Dem fortunes.

Good Tuesday morning, and happy birthday to NRCC recruiting chief Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who turns, um, 29 today, right?

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the organizations and people who will matter this week in politics:

EX-FL HOUSE SPEAKER MARCO RUBIO: He may be underfunded, but Rubio has transformed what was once a snoozer of a race into what will likely prove the most facinating primary contest this year. A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll out this morning shows Rubio leading FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) by a 47%-44% margin, after Crist led by 15 points in Oct. Rubio leads among conservatives 52%-39%, while Crist leads among moderates, 55%-36%.

The race is far from over, and with 7 months to go before primary day, Crist still has some major advantages. For one thing, Rubio's money has been disappointing, and we've been told he struggled to pull in funds in the last quarter after buzz over NY-23 candidate Doug Hoffman died down. Crist, on the other hand, has enough cash to begin advertising early, erasing any gap Rubio might earn.

For all the talk of conservative primary challengers to establishment GOP picks, the fact is most of those establishment picks are going to win. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) appears to be cruising to an easy win in next week's IL primary, for starters. But if the movement wants to pick a place to stand and fight, FL may be it, and Crist, once a sure bet to fill a Senate seat, could be the victim. Rubio's odds aren't great, but they're better than those other conservative challengers face.

THE NRCC: The monthly money battle, wherein the DSCC, the NRSC, the NRCC, the DCCC, the RNC and the DNC disclose how much they raised over the previous 31 days, has become a constant headache for GOP strategists. Yes, the NRSC is staying competitive with its Dem rival, but both the RNC and the NRCC are losing ground on a monthly basis. The RNC hasn't raised more than it's spent since last June, while the NRCC had just over $2M in the bank at the end of Nov., when accounting for debt. This month, the DCCC reported $16.7M on hand, with $2M in debt. The NRCC will release their monthly totals on Friday.

The GOP is poised for historic gains, much like the party was in '94. But that year, they had something else: Money. Then-RNC chair Haley Barbour put millions behind Newt Gingrich's efforts to retake the House, and it paid off in the end.

The DCCC raised $11.2M in the 4thQ on the way to raising $55.6M for the year, according to a Dem source. The cmte banked $16.7M at the end of the year, and had debts of $2M.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-AR) camp sparked a round of buzz this p.m. after firing off a press release announcing they'll make an "important campaign announcement" tomorrow a.m. via Twitter. The camp's statement came on the same day the camp denied rumors that the DSCC was urging Lincoln to retire and let another Dem (like popular Gov. Mike Beebe (D)?) run for AR SEN this year.

However, a Dem source tells Hotline On Call that Lincoln remains committed to the SEN race. Her "announcement" tomorrow a.m. will focus on her 4thQ fundraising reports, we're told.

They may not have the benefit of a positive political terrain, but Dems say they can save themselves seats next year by out-working GOPers and entrenching themselves earlier than others have been able to do so.

In a memo issued late last week to Dem members of Congress, Rep. Chris Van Hollen's office touts younger members' work on constituent services and press outreach within their own districts -- efforts they hope will protect them from a national wave.

"[R]ecently elected House Democrats focused like a laser beam on their districts, both while they were home and in Washington," the memo reads. "They implemented very effective constituent services operations; had an aggressive and focused message and press strategy; made themselves highly accessible to their constituents; and logged a host of legislative accomplishments that directly benefited their districts."

The 48 junior members who fall under Van Hollen's jurisdiction as assistant to the Speaker, averaged 41 events last year focused on the economy; 31 events focused on health care; and 21 events centered on veterans' service. The new members visited an average of 15 schools each and attended 4 editorial board meetings each.

The goal, insiders say, is to make younger Dems seem as entrenched in their districts as those who have served for decades. A voter, even an angry voter, is more likely to cast a ballot for a Dem incumbent if that incumbent helped with case work or connected with the voter in some other way.

Members who have been especially active appear connected to their districts. Any member who becomes disconnected can find themselves quickly out of a job.

"There won't be any Curt Schilling moments with any of our freshmen and sophomores," joked one House Dem aide, referring to MA AG Martha Coakley's (D) gaffe in the final week of her campaign in which she seemed unaware of who Schilling was.

Still, even members of Congress who are good at the constituent services side of their jobs have been shown the door in recent years. Dems have used their official offices to boost their prospects, but that doesn't mean the party is going to avoid steep losses this Nov.

Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (I) will not pursue a GOV bid, he is set to announce today, despite polls showing he is one of the most popular politicians in the state.

Goodman has set a 2 p.m. news conference to announce his decision, which was first reported by NV political expert Jon Ralston.

Goodman's decision leaves Clark Co. council pres. Rory Reid (D) up against a GOP field headlined by ex-fed. judge Brian Sandoval (R). Sandoval leads Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), who is deeply unpopular, and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R) in early polling.

Polls show Sandoval leading Reid in test matchups.

Goodman, who has been in office for 2 terms, has been publicly flirting with a GOV bid for years. As recently as last week, he told a newspaper he would announce his bid with showgirls on his arms -- a trademark pose -- and that he would "keep drinking my gin and betting on anything that moves" if elected.

Hoping to continue the Dem retirement train post-Marion Berry (D-AR), the NRCC will begin airing a new cable TV ad tomorrow targeting Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) for his role as Budget Committee chair. UPDATE: A Dem source tells us the total ad buy was under $5K, which tells us the NRCC is looking for the ad to make a splash among the chattering classes here in DC, and not necessarily back in Spratt's CD, at least at the outset.

In a preview of what Spratt can expect should he opt for re-election, the NRCC ad hits Spratt for writing "the most fiscally irresponsible budget in the history of the federal government." It also accuses him of of writing a loophole into the budget amendment that would allow Dems to use reconciliation to pass the health care bill.

Despite the fact that his office told reporters late last year that he's definitely running for re-election, Spratt has been rumored as a potential retiree.

In addition to the ad, the NRCC also sent an e-mail to supporters asking them to contribute to help keep the ad on the air.

Spratt is considered at the top of any potential Dem retirement list. First, he sits in a CD that has gone strongly to WH GOPers (McCain took 53%, Bush took 57% in '04) in recent years; second, GOPers recruited a very strong challenger to run against him in state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R); and third, because of his age -- Spratt is 67.

This will be the second TV ad the NRCC has run against Spratt this cycle. Earlier this year, the cmte spent a small amount of money on cable TV ads against Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Vic Snyder (D-AR) and Spratt. Snyder retired earlier this year.

Updated: Aides to Sens. Paul Kirk (D-MA) and Kay Hagan (D-NC) tell Hotline OnCall they will vote for Bernanke's confirmation. Updated II: Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is a yes vote. Updated III: Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) is a yes vote, and Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) are leaning yes.

Allies of Fed chair Ben Bernanke spent the weekend trolling for Senate support ahead of an expected reconfirmation vote this week, but Bernanke remains short of the votes he needs to win a second term, according to a Hotline OnCall tally.

Bernanke has public support from 43 senators, while 18 are publicly opposed to his reconfirmation. That leaves 39 senators uncommitted, and many have said they are concerned about Bernanke's record during his first years in office.

The WH and Senate leaders have expressed confidence they will have the votes they need. Still, underscoring the trouble some members have with Bernanke's renomination, even the top GOPer in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, has refused to disclose how he would vote.

What was supposed to be an easy confirmation became more difficult recently as populist anger has surged across the nation. It has even cost Bernanke a certain vote; Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) voted for Bernanke when his nomination came before the Banking Committee, but Brown has said he is rethinking that vote.

There is little ideological harmony in those who have said they will vote for Bernanke. They include 12 GOPers, ranging from conservative Sens. Mike Johanns (R-NE) and Richard Burr (R-NC) to more centrist Sens. George Voinovich (R-OH) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). The 27 Dems backing Bernanke include liberals like John Kerry (D-RI) and Chris Dodd (D-CT) and centrists Mark Warner (D-VA) and Evan Bayh (D-IN). Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) will also back Bernanke.

Too, the ideological gaps among those opposed to Bernanke are just as large. Sens. Jim Bunning (R-KY) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) have joined Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Russ Feingold (D-WI) in voicing opposition.

No vote has been scheduled yet. Bernanke's term expires on Sunday.

A complete vote-count, compiled by Hotline OnCall, after the jump. Check back over the coming days and we'll keep you updated with the latest tallies.

The NRCC will wade into new technological territory later this week when it launches a mobile chat room aimed at connecting local activists -- and harnessing their energies for the party's benefit.

Cell phone users will be able to send text messages to the NRCC's short code -- the 5- or 6-digit number organizations use as text messaging recepticles, like a mobile URL. They will be grouped into small chat rooms by geographic location, giving them the opportunity to organize together.

But for the application's launch, texters with smart phones will have access to the chat room from 7-9 p.m. on Wednesday, when Pres. Obama is delivering his State of the Union address. Then, anyone who contributes $25 will be able to ask questions of members of Congress or one of several big-name GOPers who have agreed to respond.

Text messaging remains a good organizational tool, and GOPers are racing to catch up to speed with Dems. Obama's campaign used text messaging more effectively than any in history, collecting cell phone numbers of voters and sending out short messages encouraging them to volunteer or head to the polls.

Texting has proven a more efficient way of communicating with voters than email, too. The standard open rate -- the rate at which recipients actually read what they are sent -- is somewhere around 97%, while a well-read email might be seen by 10% of recipients.

But though relief efforts for victims of the earthquake in Haiti have been supplemented by millions of dollars of donations to the Red Cross solicited via text messaging, the process has yet to prove a reliable political fundraising tool. A typical $10 donation to Haitian recovery efforts largely reaches its intended targets, but vendors will take money off the top for political campaigns.

Some campaigns have gotten around the money phone companies charge by having telemarketers call anyone who responds to a text seeking donations.

Meanwhile, the NRCC's program remains in its testing stages. GOPers spent the weekend sending messages to themselves to work out the bugs, and while insiders promise the community will allow members to criticize their party so long as texters avoid inappropriate language, there are some messages the GOP probably doesn't want on its own site, like one that appeared last night: "I love Karl rove [sic] 4ever," wrote one poster.

The site, which was open to the public briefly this morning, has since been made private.

Update: Those who fork over $25 on Wednesday can have their questions answered by ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), ex-WH press sec. Dana Perino, ATR pres. Grover Norquist and Redstate.com blogger Erick Erickson.

The top-spending groups on health care reform generally spent about as much lobbying last year as they did in 2008 -- with one notable exception: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

The Chamber stood out not only for consistently outspending other groups, but also for nearly doubling its lobbying spending over the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2009 alone, the group's outflows easily topped the amount spent by any other group all year.

Lobbying disclosure forms show the Chamber spent $123.3M on all lobbying activities for 2009, compared to $62.3M in 2008. The forms do not break down spending by legislative issue, and the chamber lobbied on subjects other than health care in 2009, including cap and trade legislation, which the group vehemently opposed.

Their total spending is equal to the amount spent by the next 9 organizations that lobbied heavily on health care. PhRMA, AARP and the American Medial Association all spent more than $20M last year, while the American Hospital Association and the Business Roundtable spent more than $13M each.

Check out the full report at National Journal's Under the Influence blog.

More than half of NV voters have an unfavorable impression of Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, making his bid for a 5th term look decidedly uphill, according to a new survey.

The Research 2000 poll, conducted for the liberal DailyKos website, surveyed 600 LVs between Jan. 18-20 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Reid, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (D), Rep. Shelly Berkley (D) and Sec/State Ross Miller (D) were tested against ex-NV GOP chair/ex-state Sen. Sue Lowden (R) and businessman/'06 Sec/State nom. Danny Tarkanian (R).

General Election Matchups

Tarkanian      52      Lowden         51
Reid           41      Reid           42

Goodman        44      Goodman        44
Tarkanian      41      Lowden         40

Tarkanian      46      Lowden         45
Berkley        40      Berkley        40

Tarkanian      44      Lowden         43
Miller         36      Miller         37

Each candidate's fav/unfav rating tells its own story. Reid's dismal 34%-55% rating is getting worse, even after months of positive ads, and his 26%-61% rating among indie voters is abysmal. Berkley and Miller have net-favorable ratings, though they remain undefined to large segments of the electorate.

Among Dems, only Goodman has admirable ratings, with 47% favorable and 19% unfavorable. That includes a 46%-14% rating among indies. There's only one problem: The date by which Goodman would have had to switch his voter registration from indie to Dem has passed, meaning he would have to run as an independent if he were to make a bid.

As expected, Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) will not run for the remaining 4 years of VP Biden's term.

In a statement provided to Hotline OnCall, Kaufman reiterated his past position, that he will serve out the term to which he was appointed after Biden resigned to become VP.

"Serving the people of Delaware in the U.S. Senate is as fulfilling, challenging, and humbling as I imagined when I was appointed. But as I said at the time, I will not seek election for the balance of the term. I will continue to spend my time as senator serving the people of Delaware and our nation and not running for office. It is a commitment I made when appointed, and one I will fulfill," Kaufman said in the statement.

That leaves Dems depending on New Castle Co. exec. Chris Coons (D), who trails Rep. Mike Castle (R) by a 51%-39% margin in a recent test matchup.

The eventual winner will hold the seat until at least the '14 elections, when the term to which VP Biden was elected in '08 will expire.

For more on the contest, check out The Hotline's race dashboard.

IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R) lead their respective fields with just a week to go before the Feb. 2 primary for Pres. Obama's old Senate seat.

The poll, conducted Jan. 16-20 for the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV, surveyed 601 likely Dem voters and 592 likely GOP voters for margins of error of +/- 4% each. Giannoulias was tested against ex-Chicago Urban League pres. Cheryle Jackson (D), ex-Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D), atty Jacob Meister and radiologist Robert Marshall (D). Kirk was matched against businessman Patrick Hughes (R), ret. judge Don Lowery (R), frequent candidate Andy Martin (R), ex-school board member Kathleen Thomas (R) and ex-Harvey City alderman John Arrington (R).

Primary Election Matchups

GOP                 Dems
Kirk       47%      Giannoulias    34%
Hughes      8       Jackson        19
Thomas      3       Hoffman        16
Martin      3       Meister         1
Arrington   2       Marshall        1
Lowery      2

Giannoulias's name recognition has kept him in the lead since he entered the race. Still, half of downstate voters are undecided as all 3 main contenders hail from the Chicago area, where the vast majority of Dem primary voters live.

On the GOP side, Hughes's efforts to portray Kirk as too moderate for his party's primary electorate has not worked, as Kirk appears to be cruising toward an easy win. Almost a quarter of GOP voters say Kirk is not conservative enough, but that hasn't been enough for Hughes to make inroads.

DE AG Beau Biden (D) will not run for the Senate seat long held by his father, VP Joe Biden, he announced today.

"My first responsibilities are here in Delaware. I have a duty to fulfill as Attorney General -- and the immediate need to focus on a case of great consequence. And that is what I must do. Therefore I cannot and will not run for the United States Senate in 2010. I will run for reelection as Attorney General," Biden wrote in an email to supporters Monday morning.

The decision is a blow to Dems who hoped to mount a competitive race for the First State seat. Biden's decision makes Rep. Mike Castle (R) the overwhelming favorite to win the final 4 years of the senior Biden's term, replacing Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) after the Nov. elections.

Without the younger Biden in the race, Dems will likely turn to New Castle Co. exec. Chris Coons (D). Polls show Castle beating Coons by a wide margin.

In turning down the chance to run for the seat, Beau Biden cited a case the AG's office has taken over in which a doctor is accused of widespread sexual assault on very young children. Biden created a Child Predator Task Force during his first term as AG, and his office has increasingly cited his work on the case.

"The idea that any child can be a victim of abuse is horrific. The fact that it has engulfed an entire community is unspeakable. The pain and trauma suffered by the children, their parents, and the families, can't be measured," Biden wrote to supporters. "But justice can be done. And I am determined to see that it is."

Biden spent most of last year serving with the DE National Guard in Iraq, and since returning in the Fall he had been considering a Senate bid. Instead, he said, he will run for another 4 year term as AG.

In the long run, the move could be good for Biden's political career. Castle will turn 71 this year, and if and when he retires, Biden will be a strong bet to win the seat his father long held.

Update: Mike Castle is a GOPer. In the course of typing too quickly, we called him a Dem. Sorry for the confusion.

Good Monday morning. Generally, it's best not to fumble on every play if one plans to win a game, a lesson Vikings fans now know all too well.

Here's Monday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who are making a difference this election cycle:

ED GILLESPIE AND TOM REYNOLDS: The former RNC chair and the former NRCC chair, respectively, are set to head GOP efforts to take back state legislative seats in '10 when they take over the Republican State Leadership Committee. The RSLC, and its Dem counterpart, the DLCC, are perhaps the least-known of any of the major party-run political committees, and yet they have a big impact on what Congress will look like for a decade to come.

Gillespie will chair the RSLC with Reynolds as vice chair, they will announce later today. And, they say, targeting key state legislative seats in just a dozen chambers across the nation could give the GOP outsized influence in those states' redistricting process. That could result in a 25-30 seat pickup in Congress for the GOP, over the long term. And they're going to be well-funded, too; after raising $22M in the '08 cycle, Gillespie and Reynolds are aiming to pick up $40M this time around.

Dems aren't going to be caught flat-footed by the effort. The DLCC has been working on its own redistricting plan since mid-decade, and it too has designs on some of the most narrowly divided state legislatures in the country. An ongoing storyline of the '10 elections will be the battle to replace literally dozens of retiring governors, because of their role in redistricting. But don't overlook the underground contest for state legislatures, who have just as much -- if not more -- influence over the process as chief executives.

REP. MARION BERRY: When the 7-term AR Dem announces he will retire today, he will break 2 barriers Dems never wanted to cross: He becomes the first member to say he will step down after Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) victory last week, and he becomes the first member to step down after saying he would run for Congress again.

GOPers have been waiting for the crush of retirements they are sure will come, while Dems have prevented such a wave. Indeed, Berry becomes just the 6th House Dem to retire without seeking higher office (though seats held by 4 members who are seeking other offices are competitive, too). Dems can survive a trickle, but a flood may be fatal.

Rep. Marion Berry (D-AR) will become the latest Dem to forgo running for another term when he announces his retirement tomorrow, Dem sources confirm to Hotline OnCall.

The 7-term Dem has never faced a difficult bid for an additional 2 years, winning more than 60% of the vote in every re-election bid. But he represents a district that could give Dems headaches; the northeast AR seat, based around Jonesboro, gave Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 59% of the vote in '08. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza first reported Berry's decision.

Berry's retirement is a psychological hit for Dems. After pledging to run for re-election, he said the election of Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) should serve as a "wake up call" for Dems.

"It was definitely a political tidal wave and that has been verified. It is no long[er] polling information and speculation. That's just the reality and I think it will definitely change the health care legislation," Berry told a local radio station. He told The Tolbert Report last week: "I think [Brown's win] is shocking to say the least."

Though the party has yet to fall victim to the wave of exits GOPers have hoped for, a slow drip continues to suggest that the party's efforts to keep seats in the House will become more difficult.

Berry's only GOP challenger this year is Rick Crawford (R), a reporter covering agriculture issues at KAIT-TV and KFIN-FM, both based in Jonesboro. Crawford ended the 3rd quarter with just $38K in the bank, far less than the $590K Berry had on hand at the same point.

GOPers are not set on Crawford as their nominee. One source pointed to State Sen. Johnny Key (R), state Rep. Davy Carter (R), businessman/'84 GOV nominee Woody Freeman (R) and businessman Chris Fowler (R) as possible candidates. Ex-AR Farm Bureau chair Stanely Reed (R) lives in the district, but he abandoned a Senate bid after a single week for medical reasons.

AR AG Dustin McDaniel (D) would be an instant front-runner, if he decides to make the race. A Dem source also names state Sen. Robert Thompson (D), state Rep. Keith Ingram (D) and ex-AR Dem chair/ex-Berry staffer Jason Willett (D) are potential candidates.

Dems aren't writing off the CD. They say it has Dem underpinnings, and point to the fact that while McCain was racking up his big win in the CD, every statewide Dem took over 60%.

NRSC chair John Cornyn will oppose the renomination of Fed chair Ben Bernanke, an announcement he made while citing uncertainty with the Obama admin's policies as a key cause of job loss.

Cornyn became at least the 13th senator to say he would oppose Bernanke's nomination to a second term, joining an eclectic group of senators ranging from conservative Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who once ran for mayor of Burlington as a socialist.

"I think Ben Bernanke is a brilliant and an honorable man, but one who has presided over what is a crisis of confidence of the American people, due to a lack of transparency and accountability as the guard of the bail-out and other activities by the Federal Reserve," Cornyn said on Fox News Sunday. "Regretfully I will vote no on his confirmation. I think they need a fresh start."

Worries about Bernanke's prospects mounted late this week as several senators said they would not support him. Nerves on Wall Street, thanks both to Bernanke and Pres. Obama's new rules on banks, led to 3 straight heavy sell-offs through the end of the week.

Cornyn himself said uncertainty is costing jobs, and that the admin's overreaching cost them a Senate seat in MA last week.

"The problem is the uncertainty of the administration's policies are killing jobs and making it harder for the average American worker," Cornyn said when asked about the admin's new populist approach.

"That's part of the message we saw out of Massachusetts. Higher taxes, more regulation, you know, the idea creating new entitlement programs while you are spending borrowed money and racking up debt and not dealing with the financial, the long-term financial problems that this country has in terms of unfunded federal liabilities," Cornyn continued. "Those are things that literally i think prompted the Massachusetts voters to action. This is the fear and the anger that you hear that i hear in my state and across the country, that apparently the White House has not yet heard."

Cornyn said Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R) win this week had energized GOPers and changed the political landscape.

Major update: Biden's office released a transcript of the interview in which Biden says it is Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-DE) who does not want to run for the rest of Biden's term, as The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder writes.

VP Biden said son/DE AG Beau Biden doesn't want to run for his father's Senate seat, giving GOPers an opportunity to easily pick up another vote in a Dem-leaning state.

In an interview with his homestate newspaper, the Wilmington News Journal, Biden reflected on his first year in office and the difficulties Dems have faced. Then, he brought up his son.

"If you run into Beau, talk him into running; he respects you," Biden told columnist Harry Themal. Themal said he didn't think Beau wants to run. Biden replied: "I don't think he does either. I know he doesn't want to."

If the younger Biden doesn't run, it will almost certainly hand the seat to Rep. Mike Castle (R), who announced last year he would make a bid. Castle has been in elected office in DE since the '60s, and a contest between he and Biden would pit 2 politicians with approval ratings in the mid-60s against each other.

Beau Biden spent most of last year in Iraq, serving as a JAG officer for the DE National Guard. If he does decide to run, he will have help from his father.

Asked whether he would campaign for his son, VP Biden responded: "Hell yes. I told him I'd give him my 6th-born grandchild." Beau and his wife have 2 children, while brother Hunter Biden has 3.

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) told delegates to an annual gathering of the AZ GOP that he will soon make official his bid to challenge Sen. John McCain (R).

"Soon, I will announce formally my candidacy for the United States Senate," he said, after being greeted by chants of "J.D.! J.D.!" according to the Arizona Capitol Times.

Yesterday, Hayworth announced he would leave his radio show, where he has spent years excoriating McCain.

McCain himself showed up at the annual meeting, where he got a standing ovation, though Cap Times correspondent Jim Small noted boos in the audience.

Hayworth's entrance into the race is not a surprise. He's been hinting at making a bid for months, and he's hired a pollster, as first reported on Hotline OnCall.

McCain has already launched his bid for a 5th term, running ads on conservative radio stations. He has already gone negative on Hayworth, launching an ad Friday that accuses Hayworth of having been a big spender while he was in Congress.

At this point last year, Pres. Obama had just been sworn in after winning a rather comfortable victory, and the House and Senate (with their expanded Democratic majorities) were preparing to push through his agenda. The public was just as enamored with congressional Dems as they were on Election Day; voters gave them a 46 percent to 22 percent lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.

But things have certainly changed in the span of that year. Obama's approval ratings are now hovering down around 50 percent, and Republicans are tied with Dems on the generic ballot. So, while Republican Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts Senate race on Tuesday may have been shocking, it was no accident. Democrats are in trouble, and they will spend most of their resources and time this year defending the seats they already have.

You'll see that reflected below in The Hotline's first House race rankings of 2010.

The top 5 seats most likely to change hands next year:

1. LA-02: Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R) -- state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) faces a contested primary, but Democrats inside and outside the district (former Sen. John Breaux and several of his '08 opponents) appear to be coalescing behind his candidacy. That's bad news for Cao, who needs a flawed Democrat to emerge from a very bloody primary if he's to have any shot at winning. Without those ingredients, the fundamentals of this 75-percent Obama district will be just too difficult for him to overcome.

2. DE-AL: Open seat held by Rep. Mike Castle (R) -- It's been three months since Castle's Senate announcement, and no high-profile Republicans have stepped up to run. Meanwhile, ex-LG John Carney (D) has used the time to build a substantial war chest. If the GOP has any hope of holding this seat, they'll need to find a top-tier challenger fast. It doesn't look like it's going to happen.

3. TN-06: Open seat held by Rep. Bart Gordon (D) -- Republicans planned to target Rep. Gordon anyway, but his retirement has opened a scramble on the GOP side. Several challengers, including state Sens. Jim Tracy and Diane Black, as well as activist Lou Ann Zelenik, have all descended on the race, and so have a few businessmen. Conversely, no Democrat has yet decided to run here. With the district's GOP lean (it gave John McCain 62 percent, after awarding Pres. Bush 60 percent four years earlier), it's almost impossible to see how Dems can convince a top-tier challenger to run -- and that'll be needed to put this seat in play.

4. LA-03: Open seat held by Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) -- We're less than 10 months away from Election Day, and the fields are far from set in this contest. But that's normal in LA, where primary day is in August. Attorney Ravi Sangisetty is running on the Dem side, and by the end of the year had a respectable $225K on hand. On the GOP side, state Rep. Nickie Monica recently announced his long-expected bid. But the candidate both sides are waiting on is state DNR Sec. Scott Angelle, who is determining whether to run, and if he does, whether to run as a GOPer or Dem.

5. KS-03: Open seat held by Rep. Dennis Moore (D) -- Moore announced his retirement in late November, and months later, we're still waiting for a Democratic candidate to emerge. Several strong Republicans, including '08 nominee Nick Jordan and state Rep. Kevin Yoder, jumped at the chance to run in the open seat. This is not unfriendly territory for Dems: Pres. Obama took advantage of black turnout in Kansas City, as well as support in KU-dominated Douglas Co., to win 51 percent here in '08. Kansas City, Kan. Mayor Joe Reardon (D) is considering a bid, but is he the best candidate? The key to Moore's longevity was that he could be competitive in the suburbs (his home base), while racking up large margins in the city. A suburban candidate would be ideal, but Dems can't afford to be picky at this point.

Check out The Hotline's top 25 House races at NationalJournal.com.

Anger -- from voters, from Dems arguing over health care and from GOPers enraged over "arrogance" -- has dominated the week. It's only fitting that our Friday Spotlight takes a look at the anger gripping the nation:

Populist fever has hit DC. Any day now, we expect to see Reid and Pelosi hop into a pick-up truck and drive it up the Capitol steps. Dems are doing all they can to channel voter "anger" like we saw in MA away from them and onto Wall Street. Will it work?

-- Since Scott Brown's election 1/19, there's now growing opposition to Bernanke's re-nomination. Meanwhile, 13 Dems - including the newly targeted Sen. Bayh - voted w/ the GOP to end TARP. At the WH yesterday, Obama said he's "ready to have a fight" w/ too-big-to-fail banks.

-- Americans' anger at TARP and Wall Street remains strong, but the real frustration among voters is that they don't see enough being done to create and sustain jobs. Cue Obama's trip to OH today where he'll tour a wind turbine manufacturing lab and a factory. But, says the WSJ, he's not stopping by Lorain Co.'s biggest employer - a high-tech wheelchair manufacturer - "to avoid drawing attention to" Dems' "foundering" health care bill.

-- Jobs and the economy will also play a key role in the OH SEN race. Pre-MA SEN, even GOPers conceded that Portman's baggage as an ex-Bush OMB/USTR head would sink him in a state struggling w/ 10%+ unemployment. Today, that baggage doesn't look quite so heavy. Instead, it's Dem Lee Fisher who's going to have the tougher balancing act. Voters may not blame Dems for getting us into this economic mess, but they're the ones who voters tasked to fix it. Remember too that part of Fisher's LG portfolio was serving as director of economic development for the state.

-- In the end, Dems are going to have a tough time re-directing all this anger to other outlets. The voting booth remains the easiest and most immediate way for regular folks to vent.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell. The roundtable will feature Washington Post's E.J. Dionne, BBC's Katty Kay, Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan and NBC's Chuck Todd.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin, and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY). The roundtable will feature CBS' Nancy Cordes and CBS' Jan Crawford.

This Week hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, DSCC Chair Robert Menendez, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, ABC's Sam Donaldson, ex-Bush strategist Matthew Dowd and ABC's Cokie Roberts.

Fox News Sunday hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs and NRSC Chair John Cornyn. The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Axelrod, Menendez, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Dem pollster Celinda Lake and GOP pollster Neil Newhouse (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

For Rep. John Boozman (R-AR), consideration of a bid against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is anything but idle.

Boozman has begun calling other GOP candidates in the race to gauge whether they would stay in the contest if he made a late entry, according to a top aide. And some have already assured him they would leave the race if he does take the plunge.

Several candidates have told Boozman they would bow out and run instead for his House seat, the state's most conservative district, based around Fayetteville and Ft. Smith in the northwest corner of the state.

And it appears the GOP establishment would be behind him as well. Boozman is expecting a call from NRSC Chairman John Cornyn this weekend and will meet with Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday morning.

Meanwhile, GOPers looking to avoid any bloody primaries could encourage state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) to run for the seat left vacant by Rep. Vic Snyder's (D) decision to retire at the end of his current term. Baker is the only candidate who leads Lincoln in a new survey. Baker's campaign did not comment on the possibility of his moving to a House contest.

Ex-US Atty Tim Griffin (R) is in the GOP race already and has been moving up the NRCC's recruitment ladder.

Atty Bill Hudak (R) issued a statement on Friday apologizing for claiming an endorsement that caused Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) his first political headache.

"Scott and I had several conversations where he pledged to provide support for me after the election," Hudak said in a statement. "However, as a person new to politics, I took those conversations as permission to move and jumped the gun in the heat of the moment."

On Wed., one day after Brown was elected, Hudak released a statement claiming that Brown had endorsed his bid against Rep. John Tierney (D). Hudak's campaign had also been using photos of Hudak with Brown on its campaign website. Brown's camp immediately pushed back against the endorsement claim, asserting that Brown had never approved the release and had never offered his support to Hudak.

"Our campaign misinterpreted his verbal agreement of support from Senator-elect Brown as an approval to proceed with the endorsement announcement," Hudak said today. "And, we did not follow proper procedure for getting the press release approved by the Senator-elect's team."

"I look forward to taking Scott up on his pledge to help me, but will let him dictate when that support should be communicated," Hudak added.

Hudak made headlines in '08 he posted signs portraying Pres. Obama as Osama bin Laden. He also claimed that Obama was not born in the U.S., but his camp has since said that those statements were taken out of context.

Hudak appeared with Brown at a North Andover rally over the weekend.

"I'm going to win this congressional district with the same exact ideas that Scott Brown espouses," Hudak told OnCall at the time.

Dems are well aware that Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) rode a tide of populist anger into the Senate, and they are looking to reclaim those stormy seas.

The DNC is getting more aggressive with its push to paint GOPers as the opponents of populism, previewing what the party says will be a major theme this fall.

Pres. Obama has sounded an increasingly populist note, casting a bank fee and a push for new regulatory reforms as a battle of Main Street vs. Wall Street. And Congressional Dems are jumping on board.

"If Republicans want to have a fight over their support for Wall Street and big banks, that's a fight we're happy to have," said a DNC official, previewing the message. "Of the many tough calls these elected officials have to make during their tenure in office, getting their taxpayers back their money and protecting American families and businesses from another economic catastrophe should be a no-brainer."

The DNC is starting small, lobbing a press release into each of 22 House districts today. Target districts include most of the DCCC's list of GOP-held seats they will pursue this year.

Later, though, the party is expected to put more resources behind the push. The releases cite new restrictions Obama proposed yesterday on financial institutions and the bank fee.

A full list of target districts, after the jump.

Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) is inspiring other GOPers to run for office this year after snagging a Dem-held Senate seat, and at least 1 of his fellow Bay Staters is taking steps to get the national party behind his candidacy.

Businessman Jon Golnik (R) is in DC today meeting with NRCC staff as he begins an uphill campaign against Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-MA). Golnik is from Wakefield and went to the same high school Brown did.

He's only raised $50K in his first weeks as a candidate, But Tsongas doesn't have an overwhelming cash advantage; she ended the 3rd quarter with just $138K in the bank and $23K in debts to pay off.

And with GOPers feeling newly optimistic about the deep-blue state, Tsongas's seat could prove their best opportunity. It wasn't so long ago that the Lowell-based district had the chance to go red; after ex-Rep. Marty Meehan (D) retired to run UMass-Lowell, Tsongas faced a stiffer-than-expected contest against retired Air Force pilot Jim Ogonowski (R), winning by a slim 51%-45% margin.

Earlier this week, Brown won the vast majority of towns in Tsongas's district, including Lowell, where he won 52%-47%.

Around the state, other GOP candidates are coming out of the woodwork. Ex-MA Treas. Joe Malone (R) told the Boston Globe he will almost certainly challenge Rep. Bill Delahunt, and GOPers in the state are looking for other candidates to challenge incumbent Dems.

MA AG Martha Coakley (D) says comments she made suggesting ex-Boston Red Sox ace Curt Schilling was nothing more than a joke that missed its mark, insisting the gaffe masked her loyalty to the hometown team.

"I know who Curt Schilling is. I'm a big Red Sox fan. I love baseball. I love going to Fenway Park. But it's easy for people, if you want to, to take things out of context," Coakley said. She called the Schilling comment "obviously not a great joke on my part."

In an interview with the Boston Globe as she returned to work, Coakley reflected on the just-concluded campaign. She said she understood why her rival, Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R), won.

"His campaign, frankly, was the one that caught a lot of attention," Coakley said. "He was able to catch a mood. He was able to catch an anger."

"I think he had the image of retail politicking," she added. "He was successful in creating that image that he was, you know, getting to people and shaking hands. He was also successful in getting a lot of, you know, up to $13 million in money from outside Massachusetts from people who wanted to see a Republican in that seat."

Coakley seemed to acknowledge that her own absence from the airwaves and several key campaign decisions, including traveling to DC a week before Election Day for a fundraiser with lobbyists, were mistakes.

"People want elected officials who are accessible, and who appear to be accessible, and he was able to run a very good campaign on that issue," Coakley said of Brown.

Asked what she would have done differently, Coakley pointed only to the campaign's failure to launch TV ads as early as Brown did. But while Brown won indie voters by wide margins, Coakley's strategy was more inwardly focused.

"The strategy was, you know, we've got to focus on going after our base and getting them energized and getting our message out," Coakley said. "I believe I did what I felt was the best campaign I could do."

Watch the full video after the jump.

The NRSC outraised the DSCC in Dec., pulling in $4.1M, more than Dems' $3.4M take. But Dems begin an election year with a big financial advantage.

The DSCC raised $43.57M in '09, finishing off the year with $12.5M in the bank. They still have $1.25M in debt to pay off, according to a press released.

The NRSC finished the year with $8.3M in the bank after raising $41.2M throughout the year. GOPers have no debt.

The DSCC has been a consistently strong fundraiser over the years, and this year, they have a worthy GOP adversary. While GOP campaign committees are feeling a cash crunch across the board, the NRSC has shepherded its money carefully and largely kept pace with their Dem rivals.

The RNC has fallen behind the DNC in the amount of cash it has in the bank, while the NRCC has trailed the DCCC by increasingly dramatic margins all year.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is running a new radio ad slamming an opponent who hasn't even gotten in the race.

The unusual ad suggests McCain is truly worried about a challenge from ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), who is taking steps toward running to McCain's right.

McCain has already run 2 positive ads on conservative radio stations, but the 3rd ad shows McCain's team has already done the opposition research.

"John McCain's running for re-election. Well, I'd hope so, why wouldn't he? It's not like our country is on the right track. It's a mess, Congress spending us into oblivion. We need McCain, standing up to the big shots, slashing spending," the announcer says.

"J.D. Hayworth? That's not what Arizona wants. He sounds conservative on the radio, but J.D. was one of the biggest spenders in Congress."

An automated poll released Friday shows McCain leading Hayworth by a wide margin, but the ad itself shows McCain's campaign team isn't taking anything lightly. Mentioning one's opponent in a campaign that is still months away is rare, but mentioning a potential challenger who hasn't even formally gotten in the race is virtually unheard of.

McCain has been signaling he will take the race seriously. Earlier this week, he announced he will be campaigning with ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), who he helped vault to national prominence when he picked her as his VP candidate. Palin is far more popular among the GOP base, especially conservatives McCain needs to get through a primary.

One top AZ GOP strategist not affiliated with McCain or Hayworth said Hayworth runs a risk by challenging the incumbent, thanks to his record in Congress. The strategist, who had not heard the ad yet, nonetheless parroted the ad's attacks on Hayworth, questioning his record as a fiscal disciplinarian.

McCain is not loved by the conservative base, but they do agree with his position on earmarks, something on which he can draw a contrast with Hayworth.

Hayworth has his own radio show in Phoenix, on which he continuously lambastes McCain. He lost his seat in '06 to Rep. Harry Mitchell (D), though the show keeps him in the political mix.

Hayworth did not return an email and a phone call seeking comment.

Full script of the ad after the jump.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) would likely win a Dem primary, but her general election prospects are much more dim, according to a new survey, as fewer than 4 in 10 voters have a favorable impression of the AR Dem.

An AR News Bureau/Stephens Media poll, conducted 1/18-20 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 625 RVs for a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Subsample of 303 Dem primary LVs for a margin of error of +/- 5.6% (release, 1/22). Lincoln was tested in the Dem primary against LG Bill Halter (D) and state Sen. Bob Johnson (D), and in general election matchups against state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Safe Foods Corp CEO Curtis Coleman (R), AR Tea Party org. pres. Tom Cox (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R), '04 nominee/'06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (R) and ret. Army Col./ind. security contractor Conrad Reynolds (R).

Primary Election Matchup

Lincoln         52    Lincoln         63
Halter          34    Johnson         22

General Election Matchups

Baker           43    Lincoln         40
Lincoln         39    Coleman         39

Lincoln         41    Lincoln         43
Cox             38    Hendren         38

Lincoln         43    Lincoln         41
Holt            37    Reynolds        38

Barring a personal or professional scandal, it's hard to imagine an incumbent with a worse image. Just 39% of ARans say they view Lincoln favorably, while 41% see her in an unfavorable light. For a 2-term senator who outspent Holt, her '04 opponent, by a factor of 40 and still only won by 12 points, that indicates she doesn't have a lot of room to grow.

But like Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid plans to do, Lincoln could pursue a strategy of making her opponent even less electable than she. None of the GOP candidates is particularly well known; Holt is the most prominent, with fav/unfav rating of just 19%-7%. Fewer still know Baker, the establishment GOP's choice. Just 11% rate him favorably, and 5% see him unfavorably.

Lincoln will have time to try that strategy out, as GOPers head for a May 18 primary. That leaves the Dem more than 5 months to define her eventual foe.

But it's a big risk to take, and it's why many political analysts see Lincoln as perhaps the most vulnerable Dem seeking re-election this year. Yesterday, the Rothenberg Political Report moved the state to the "lean takeover" category, while Jennifer Duffy at the Cook Political Report rates the race a true tossup.

The RNC has spent more money than it has taken in during every month since July, even as the party brags about an expanded donor base that set off-year records.

The lead GOP committee announced Friday it had raised $6.6M in Dec. But the party spent more than it raised, and its CoH total dropped from $8.75M at the end of Nov. to $8.4M to close the year.

In a memo sent to party leaders earlier this month, RNC exec. dir. Ken McKay touted the party's success in recruiting new donors. This year, 370K contributors have given to the party for the first time, giving them an active base of 1.19M donors, according to an RNC press release.

But recruiting those donors and soliciting money from veteran givers has cost much more than anticipated. The party spent $11M more on donor cultivation last year than an initial budget estimate calculated, and the focus on small-dollar donors has hurt the RNC among its larger givers. The cost of raising every dollar has been much higher than it was the previous year, according to sources familiar with the RNC's budget.

For the entire year, the RNC raised just shy of $91M, including $77.7M during chair Michael Steele's tenure, which began in late Jan. That figure includes transfers from Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) WH campaign, which arrived at the committee in January.

But the party's cash-on-hand total has dwindled from $22.8M, thanks largely to heavy spending in efforts to win NJ and VA GOV races and on a $2M campaign to beat back health care reform.

During that effort, the RNC released an ad buy the party said cost 6 figures, featuring Steele himself.

The other political committees, including the DNC, have yet to release their fundraising numbers for Dec. Reports are due to the FEC by Feb. 1.

"World News" led with an investigation into a Toyota sedan. "Evening News" led with CA storms. "Nightly News" led with Pres. Obama's banking plan shift.

Senators weighed in on cable 1/21 on the SCOTUS campaign finance reform ruling.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), on the SCOTUS decision: "I was obviously disappointed. And it is very complex, 116-page decision and we haven't gotten through all of it. And it leaves a lot of questions unanswered ... and, by the way, I would point out that this will allow for unlimited contributions from unions, as well as corporations. ... And Americans will ... judge whether that's good or bad" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/21).

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, on the decision: "Important. The core of the decision was now a corporation that owns a media outlet, which has been free to speak, will be treated no differently from a corporation that doesn't own a media outlet. Every corporation and every union will be able to speak freely at any time, whether they own a media outlet or not. Free speech for everyone" ("On the Record," FNC, 1/21).

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), on the ruling: "The conservatives talk about not having interference with the democratic process. They have overturned more laws, this conservative group led by Scalia now joined by Roberts and Alito and the others, than the liberals have. And in fact this is a ... very radical repudiation of dozens of laws passed by Congress. This is judicial striking down of the law."

After the jump, more SCOTUS reax, Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner on Obama's new banking plan, and ex-Edwards aide/ex-baby daddy fall-guy Andrew Young speaks.

Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) is well-positioned to capture the GOP nod in CA's high-priced GOV race following the withdrawal of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), according to a new Field Poll released today.

And in addition to opening up a big lead on Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner in the primary, Whitman has also closed the gap with AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), who has not officially entered the race but is expected to run and faces a clear path to the Dem nod should he do so. The poll comes two days after Whitman's camp announced she had loaned herself an additional $20M, bringing the cost of the campaign on her personal account to $39M. She now has $30.5M CoH.

The Field Poll surveyed 958 LVs between 1/5-17, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. The GOP primary matchup was tested among a relatively small sample of 202 LVs, with a margin of error of +/- 6.9%.

Whitman  45%
Poizner  17

Brown    46%
Whitman  36

Brown    48%
Poizner  31

In the previous Field Poll, conducted in late Sept. into early Oct., Campbell ran second in the GOP primary, garnering 22% to Whitman's 36%. Poizner trailed with 9%.

Unlike in Field's SEN poll, where Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) maintained consistent, if modest, leads over her GOP opponents since the last survey, the GOPers running for GOV are gaining on Brown. Whitman has cut Brown's lead by more than half; Brown led her in Oct., 50-29%. Brown also led Poizner in the previous poll, 50-25%.

Whitman's name recognition has increased, as well. In Oct., just 32% of CA voters had an opinion of her (18% favorable/14% unfavorable). In today's poll, 25% view her favorably, while 20% see her unfavorably.

Good Friday morning. A fun tip for football this weekend: Follow @DonnaBrazile's Twitter feed for a constant stream of Saints trash-talk. Who dat?!?

Here's Friday's Starting Lineup, spotlighting the people in the headlines this weekend:

JUSTICE JOHN PAUL STEVENS: He's hired just one clerk for next term, he's rapidly approaching his 90th birthday and speculation is mounting that he may not stay on the high court for another term. But Stevens wrote a harshly-worded dissent in Citizens United, the decision handed down yesterday that will have major impacts on election cycles to come.

Stevens, the dean of the Court's liberal minority, gave a scathing retort to the majority's opinion, which allows corporations to spend money on independent political ads. Corporations can also run electioneering communications within windows before an election that had previously been banned. The ruling went as far as McCain-Feingold opponents hoped it would, and reformers were left admitting they had no immediate legislative recourse.

The case is a boon for the GOP, which has faced money problems all year. While corporations cannot contribute directly to candidates, they will run major ad campaigns, making up for what is expected to be a marked gap between, for example, the DCCC and the NRCC. It is little wonder that NRSC chair John Cornyn was one of the first out of the gate with a statement praising the ruling yesterday.

EX-REP. MIKE FITZPATRICK: The PA GOPer lost his seat in the '06 Dem landslide after serving just a single term. He conceded a few days after Election Day to Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), who won the race by just 1,500 votes.

This weekend, though, Fitzpatrick will make a "major announcement," and sources say he wants his old job back. Murphy took 55% of the vote in '08 to win a 2nd term, slightly outperforming Pres. Obama in the Bucks Co.-based Philly suburbs. Fitzpatrick will give GOPers another top-tier recruit in a seat the party needs to win if it can reclaim a majority, though he faces an uphill battle against Murphy.

Wealthy businessman Steve Welch (R) said today he won't drop out of the race against Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA), forcing the incumbent into a potentially costly, and damaging, primary.

GOPers were excited when Gerlach dropped his longshot GOV bid earlier this month to run for re-election to his swing suburban Philly CD. But they certainly didn't bargain on Welch -- and his $650K war chest -- staying in the contest.

In fact, most of the other serious contenders have dropped out of the race; some, begrudgingly so. Most expected Welch to drop his bid, but he has decided to stay in. "If you were us, why would you stop?" Welch told PoliticsPA today. "We're clearly gaining support."

Welch also tried to put a MA SEN-like spin on the race. "What [Sen.-elect Scott] Brown showed [is] it's not anti-Democratic year, it's not an anti-Republican year, it's clearly an anti-incumbent year," he said.

GOPers are expecting a recruiting boon to materialize after their shocking MA SEN victory, and several candidates have popped up since Brown's Jan. 19 win. The problem, though, is that the favorable environment is attracting candidates, like Welch, to run in places where the GOP is already has a satisfactory candidate -- in this case, an incumbent.

And a bruising primary here could be damaging to the GOP's chances of holding the seat. Sure, Gerlach's a battle-tested incumbent, having fought four contested general election challenges in a row. But a primary from his right -- which Welch will almost surely run, as he's already signed the Club for Growth's "repeal it" pledge regarding health care reform -- will force Gerlach to move to the right as well, potentially damaging his moderate profile in this suburban CD.

Gerlach should still hold the advantage in a primary, but he'll also face a strong Dem nominee in a CD where he's never won more than 52%. The national environment will be much better for GOPers this year, but this is a fight Gerlach, and nat'l GOPers, could not afford to have.

In the wake of the SCOTUS' ruling eviscerating limits on the amount and timing of corporate campaign spending, Pres. Obama today called on Congress "to develop a forceful response to this decision." But both cong. leaders and pro-reform election attys acknowledge that no easy remedy exists to once again establish restrictions on corporations' involvement in the electoral process.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen told reporters today that they would explore options to renew some limit on corporate spending that conforms to the court's decision.

"The Supreme Court has just pre-determined the winners of next year's elections," Schumer told reporters today. "It won't be Republicans, it won't be Democrats, it will be corporate America."

Schumer, who chairs the Senate Rules Committee, is planning to hold hearings in the next couple of weeks that would explore potential legislative avenues to mitigate the impacts of today's decision, according to a Schumer aide.

House Admin. Cmte Chair Bob Brady (D-PA) also announced his intention to hold hearings sometime in Feb. on the ramifications of the ruling.

One possible remedy would be to require shareholders of publicly-held companies to approve any political spending, the Schumer aide said. But neither Schumer's nor Van Hollen's office would take anything off the table.

In addition to working with Van Hollen, Schumer's office said he has been in touch with Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), a co-sponsor of Congress' most recent campaign-finance reform effort.

But Feingold, like many of his Dem and pro-reform colleagues, seemed short on details.

"In the coming weeks," Feingold said in a statement sent to reporters after the ruling came down, "I will work with my colleagues to pass legislation restoring as many of the critical restraints on corporate control of our elections as possible."

DSCC Chair Bob Menendez echoed Feingold, both in tone and lack of specificity.

"We must look at legislative ways to make sure the ledger is not tipped so far for corporate interests that citizens voices are drowned out," he said in a statement.

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) is having a very good day.

Rubio, running to FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) right in the GOP primary for Sen. George LeMieux's (R) open seat, got a political boost today when George P. Bush, son of Gov. Jeb Bush and nephew of ex-Pres. George W. Bush, endorsed his bid.

Jeb Bush is said to prefer Rubio over Crist, and though he likely wouldn't make an endorsement himself, many of his former political aides are quietly working on Rubio's behalf. George P. Bush and his brother, Jeb Bush Jr., will hold a fundraiser for Rubio tonight in Coral Gables.

It's not the only financial help Rubio is getting these days. He will also see donations flood in from the Senate Conservatives Fund, Sen. Jim DeMint's (R) political arm, which is launching a money bomb on Rubio's behalf over the next 2 weeks.

The $100K DeMint aims to raise for Rubio isn't a huge amount, but it will make a difference for a campaign we've heard is having money problems. Meanwhile, Crist is raising cash hand over fist, outpacing most incumbents -- even those facing tough election bids -- over the last 2 quarters.

But Rubio is gaining ground on Crist in other areas. He has won every straw poll among GOP activists the 2 have been a part of, and he must be closing the gap with Crist, given Crist's moves to hit Rubio on several aspects of his record.

Perhaps emboldened by Rubio's progress, DeMint has gone from actively supporting Rubio's campaign to actively opposing Crist's as well. In an email to supporters, DeMint asks for the $100K in donations by Feb. 10 -- the anniversary of a town hall meeting when Crist joined Pres. Obama at an event in Ft. Myers to support the stimulus package.

"The outcome of the race for U.S. Senate in Florida is critical. It's a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party and for America itself. It's a choice between a candidate who will consistently stand up and fight for limited government and more freedom, and one who has been too eager to compromise for political gain," DeMint wrote in his email.

"As you may know, a number of Republican leaders in Washington endorsed Governor Crist last year because they thought he was the most electable. They were wrong," DeMint added. "Polls now show that voters prefer Rubio because of his principled leadership. But Governor Crist has a sizable campaign war chest that he is using against Rubio. We must fight back, and this moneybomb is a perfect way to do it."

Brown meets Sen. John McCain today
Photo: Liz Lynch, National Journal

But even as they read the results as a warning sign that Dems are not addressing needs of a core constituency, labor officials and pollsters insisted that Brown's come-from-behind victory was not a referendum on Pres. Obama, health care reform or national Dems' agenda.

"This was fundamentally a working-class revolt that took place in Massachusetts," Hart Research pollster Guy Molyneux said on a conference call to discuss the poll results with reporters this p.m.

According to the Hart telephone survey, which sampled 810 voters on election night and had a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, Coakley lost non-college voters to Brown by a 20-point margin -- a "40-point net swing" from WH '08, Molyneux said, when Obama won the same group by 21 points.

Brown won non-college men by 27 points, thanks to a heavy-on-pickup-truck populism. But the real warning sign lies in Brown's victory over Coakley among non-college women, a demographic he won by 13 points. Overall, Coakley won among women by only two points, a gender gap that was "considerably smaller" than the 24-point gap in '08, Molyneux said.

"The real story here was much more about class than gender, with just a collapse of working-class support," he added.

Brown won despite facing serious political obstacles that, in any other state, might have doomed a GOPer. Asked who has the right policies for fixing the economy, 47% chose Obama, while just 1 in 3 picked Congressional GOPers.

A 61% majority of those polled said the federal government has helped Wall Street but hasn't helped "average working people," the poll showed. Meanwhile, 47% say they are worried Dems haven't made enough changes, while 32% said the party in power is changing things too quickly.

Health care has been a central focus for Dems this year, but political professionals on both sides of the aisle say the party needs job creation legislation to buoy its midterm election prospects.

Health care reform, on the other hand, would not benefit Dems as much, according to the insiders. In fact, the party's top strategists are divided over what the best course of action may be.

A sneak peek at the National Journal Political Insiders Poll:

What Legislation Would Help Dems' Political Prospects, If Enacted?

Dem Insiders                GOP Insiders
Job creation       83%      Job creation       65%
Health care        37       Deficit reduction  56
Deficit reduction  32       Financial regs     16
Financial regs     32       Tax on big banks    9

Given The MA SEN Race, What's Best For Your Party On Health Care Reform?

Dem Insiders                GOP Insiders
Adopt scaled-back bill  36% House approves Sen bill 41%
House approves Sen bill 29  Shelve bill for '10     36
House/Senate compromise 24  Adopt scaled-back bill  14
Shelve bill for '10      8  House/Senate compromise  4

One Dem summed up feelings many in the party are expressing of late: "Who cares about the climate or taxing big banks if I'm unemployed? Give me a job, and I'll get health care."

Meanwhile, predicted a GOP strategist: "Unemployment at or above 10% is a death knell for Democrats in November."

Check out the full results in tomorrow's National Journal.

The GOPer in charge of molding a new national platform for the party's House candidates says the process has only just begun.

House GOP leadership has tasked Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) with guiding an updated version of the Contract With America, a repeat of the strategy the party pursued in the run-up to their '94 electoral sweep.

But, McCarthy said, the document is only in its "very beginning stages" as he seeks input from incumbent members of Congress and candidates around the country.

"This won't be developed by Washington," McCarthy told reporters at a roundtable sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. "I'm going to look to a lot of input from across the nation. I'm going to look for a lot of input from candidates."

The document doesn't have a formal name yet, but McCarthy characterized it as an "agenda for the future."

GOP aides on Capitol Hill were tight-lipped about the document's progress as the party develops their agenda behind closed doors. And several prominent conservative thinkers, many of whom were involved in the original Contract talks in '94, haven't heard from McCarthy either.

McCarthy's role in crafting the agenda seems to be similar to that of House Min. Leader John Boehner, whose office shepherded talks about the Contract 16 years ago. As GOP Conference chair in '94, Boehner had a staffer tasked with overseeing the package of proposals as other members of GOP leadership and many prominent conservatives from around DC worked on it.

Conservative organizations are urging House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence to run for Senate the same day he sits down with top officials at the NRSC to discuss a bid.

The righty blogosphere has erupted in the last 24 hours with talk that Pence is considering a run against Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) in the wake of Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) victory on Tuesday. Hotline OnCall first reported that Pence would sit down with the NRSC today.

Pence's "leadership in the House over the years has been invaluable, and I certainly don't want to lose that. But Tuesday's stunning upset in Massachusetts confirms that Indiana is a winnable race for a principled advocate of economic freedom and limited government," said Chris Chocola, who heads the Club for Growth, in a statement supporting Pence's potential bid.

Conservative bloggers like Michelle Malkin and Ed Morrissey like the idea too.

Meanwhile, Pence has done nothing to tamp down speculation himself, appearing on MSNBC this morning where he was sure to be asked about his future ambitions.

"I've been very humbled and very flattered by the encouragement we've received from people across the state of Indiana, and some here in Washington. As was reported this morning, I'm going to meet this afternoon with the leadership of the Republican Senatorial Committee, and I'm going to hear them out," Pence said. "I'm not ruling anything out, I'm going to have an open mind this afternoon. But my focus is serving Indiana and electing a Republican majority, and I believe we can do."

GOP sources aren't convinced that Pence will jump in the race, especially given that Bayh has 25 times more CoH than the GOPer does. But if the NRSC makes the right deal, the party could be on the brink of putting another seat in play.

Newly sworn-in VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) will deliver the GOP's response to Pres. Obama's State of the Union address Wednesday night.

In tapping McDonnell, GOPers hope to capitalize on the momentum the party has earned from recent electoral gains. McDonnell has been credited with laying out a blueprint for conservative GOPers to compete even in centrist states, and the party believes he is the best face to put in front of the country's surging populism.

Last year, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) was tapped to offer the response amid growing excitement surrounding the Republican rising star.

Republican aides believed last year that a governor was the best foil after Obama's massive victory, because Jindal was cast as a Washington outsider and not someone who would be working with Obama on day-to-day legislation. Officials did not want a senator or a House leader delivering an address to counter some of Obama's proposals then, when they were trying to show willingness to work with the president.

This time, McDonnell's big win in VA in Nov., along with Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R) victory in MA, are a message in their own, suggesting the party is making a dramatic comeback.

Update: It's not uncommon for newly-elected VA Govs. to become the face of the party. In '05, McDonnell's predecessor, Tim Kaine (D), gave the Dem rebuttal to Pres. Bush.

The election of a GOPer in a heavily-Dem state indicates that voters are turning to the minority party for alternatives, giving the GOP a chance to retake the House, 2 prominent party leaders said this morning.

In a breakfast with reporters sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, House Min. Whip Eric Cantor and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said their recruitment efforts will pay off in Nov., giving the GOP a firm contrast with Dems in charge in DC.

"We Republicans believe very strongly that we're a party that can deliver a vision," Cantor said. "People are excited and are beginning to listen to our vision."

To take advantage of the new attention, GOPers will have to have candidates running in many districts, the stronger the better. McCarthy, who heads up recruiting at the NRCC, said his weekly breakfasts with assistants from around the country, including Reps. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), Jim Jordan (R-OH), Geoff Davis (R-KY), Pete Olson (R-TX), Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA) and Bill Shuster (R-KY), have paid dividends in the form of qualified candidates.

McCarthy predicted more Dems will join the ranks of retirees in coming weeks, especially after some GOP candidates post their 4th quarter fundraising hauls. McCarthy specifically pointed to Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA) as someone he will "actually look to" to retire.

And McCarthy also has his eye on seats he calls "Rostenkowski districts," represented by Dems who could face ethical charges. Comparing them to ex-Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, who lost his IL seat in '94 after being indicted for his role in the House post office scandal, McCarthy said he relishes the thought of campaigning against embattled Dems like Reps. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), John Murtha (D-PA) and Paul Kanjorski (D-PA).

Recruitments and retirements, McCarthy said, pave the way to victory. "If you ask the question, can we win the majority? Yes we can," McCarthy said. "We have the ability to win the majority. Doesn't mean we're going to, but we have the ability."

McCarthy said Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) win this week has candidates who initially turned down entreaties to run for Congress reconsidering their decision. He was on the phone with many of them early on Wednesday, after Brown's victory.

And, after Brown won 7 of the state's 10 districts, McCarthy promised the GOP would make an effort to win the party's first seats in the state since '94. "We're going to play in Massachusetts," he said.

Cantor said the MA election results showed a "rejection" of Dem attempts to reform health care. "Our vision is focused on the people's challenges today," he said.

Meanwhile, neither McCarthy nor Cantor would comment on any other Dems they were encouraging to switch parties.

"I've never found a time when a recruitment of a party switcher out in the newspaper has ever come to fruition," McCarthy joked.

Major trade organizations like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will be able to spend unlimited amounts of money in this year's midterm elections thanks to a SCOTUS ruling today that experts said represented a major overhaul of the nation's campaign finance rules.

"It is a sweeping decision. In one opinion, the Court struck down all bans on corporate independent spending," said Marc Elias, a leading Dem election lawyer at Perkins Coie.

The long-awaited Citizens United v. FEC decision overturned the Court's ruling in Austin v. Michigan Chamber of Commerce, which banned corporations from using company money to fund political ads. Writing for the majority, Justice Anthony Kennedy cited First Amendment concerns and criticized the FEC for allowing the government to regulate political speech.

The case "will reflect a huge sea-change in campaign finance law," said Robert Kelner, a GOP election lawyer at Covington & Burling. "The Court went all the way. It really relieves any restrictions on corporate spending on independent advertising."

The decision is a major win for opponents of campaign finance reform legislation commonly known as McCain-Feingold. The Court struck down limits on corporate speech, leaving in place only reporting requirements that force groups spending the money to be transparent.

"This case will lead to more spending, I think, in political elections," said Brad Smith, chair of the Center for Competitive Politics and a former FEC commissioner.

Over the long run, the ruling is likely to favor GOPers more than it does Dems. While it does apply to unions and corporations equally, Elias said the presumption is that corporations have more money to spend.

"This decision helps the side with the greatest enthusiasm factor," said William McGinley, an attorney with Patton Boggs and a former general counsel at the NRSC. "You can have the ability to speak, but if you're not motivated to speak, that doesn't mean anything."

"The question is going to be, who is going to step on this battlefield? Who has the motivation to get on the field and play?" McGinley asked.

Kelner said the ruling will not result in major corporations running their own advertising, but he said money will be able to flow more freely to trade associations.

"If people think that individual companies are going to go out and buy ads, there may be some of that, but for the most part companies are going to flow this money through trade groups and other outside groups" he said. "This will open the floodgates for money flowing through groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other associations [that] spend money on political advertising."

"There was always a cloud of doubt around outside groups and trade associations, and this lifts those clouds of doubt and leaves behind clear skies," Kelner said.

A system snafu kept us from posting this yesterday afternoon, but here's a quick look at the latest announced fundraising numbers:

Businessman Bruce Poliquin (R) led the field in the race to replace retiring ME Gov. John Baldacci (D), raising $633K in the 4th quarter, including $100K of his own money. Businessman Matt Jacobson (R) raised $88K and ex-Red Sox vice chair Les Otten (R) raised $85K, plus a $586K donation from his own funds, the AP reported. Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) raised $61K, including $20K of his own.

On the Dem side, state Senate Pres. Libby Mitchell (D) pulled in $70K, while ex-House Speaker John Richardson (D) raised $46K. Mitchell and Richardson are vying for public funding, and both have reached the minimum $40K mark to qualify. Businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli (D) raised $258K, $16K of it in loan form.

NV Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) raised a paltry $165K over the last quarter, spending $130K of it and renewing talk that the deeply unpopular incumbent may not even make it to Election Day. His main rival, ex-Fed. Judge Brian Sandoval, pulled in $900K over the same period.

And Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) was the first TN GOV candidate to announce his haul. He's raised $5.7M over the last 3 months.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) is making the DSCC happy today; he announced he's pulled in $1.2M in the final 3 months of the year, leaving him with $3.5M CoH. His opponent in the Dem primary, ex-House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), won't release his totals until the 1/31 deadline.

On the House side, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) said he raised $30K and gave himself $50K more since entering the race against Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) last month. Ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (R) raised $191K in his first quarter in the race against Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), where polls show the 2 candidates tied at 40%.

Ex-Cong. aide Jack Bailey (R) raised $100K for his newly announced bid against Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-TN), though he will face a tough primary against physician Scott DesJarlais (R). Meanwhile, businessman Bill Flores (R) has contributed $304K of the $416K he raised in the 4th quarter to his own campaign as he takes on 4 other GOPers in the race against Rep. Chet Edwards (D-TX).

The Supreme Court on Thursday struck down some key provisions of landmark campaign finance legislation in a move experts agree paves the way for more corporate money to enter the political system.

In a 5-4 decision in Citizens United v. FEC, the Court's majority threw out sections of the legislation that bans corporations and labor unions from funding some political advertisements. Corporations and unions may fund those communications out of their general treasuries, overturning earlier rulings that had divided individual and corporate expenditures into different categories.

It is a major win for opponents of campaign finance reform legislation passed earlier this decade.

The case stemmed from a movie critical of then-pres. candidate Hillary Clinton, which the FEC said violated the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, also known as McCain-Feingold. The FEC argued the movie violated section 203 of BCRA, which prohibits corporations and unions from using non-PAC money in ads that mention a candidate for office, and sections 201 and 311, which set up disclosure requirements.

Reform advocates were disheartened when the Court refused to rule on the case last term, when it was originally argued. Instead, justices asked for a rehearing in order to consider whether the Court should overrule two previously settled cases as well. Those cases, McConnell v. FEC and Austin v. Michigan Chamber of Commerce, were victories for reformers -- victories that were snatched away today.

On Wednesday, the Court overturned Austin, as well as a part of McConnell that placed restrictions on independent expenditures by corporations.

Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the majority, which included the other 4 more conservative judges on the Court. Justice John Paul Stevens wrote a 90-page dissent joined by the Court's other 3 liberal justices.

The Court cited the First Amendment and an overbearing FEC as primary reasons for overturning the McCain-Feingold legislation.

The FEC's "regulatory scheme may not be a prior restrain on speech in the strict sense of that term, for prospective speakers are not compelled by law to seek an advisory opinion from the FEC before the speech takes place," Kennedy wrote. "As a practical matter, however, given the complex-ity of the regulations and the deference courts show toadministrative determinations, a speaker who wants toavoid threats of criminal liability and the heavy costs of defending against FEC enforcement must ask a govern-mental agency for prior permission to speak."

"The FEC has created a regime that allows it to select what political speech is safe for public consumption by applying ambiguous tests. If parties want to avoid litigation and the possibility of civil and criminal penalties, theymust either refrain from speaking or ask the FEC to issue an advisory opinion approving of the political speech in question," Kennedy continued. "Government officials pore over each word of a text to see if, in their judgment, it accords with the 11-factor test they have promulgated. This is an unprece-dented governmental intervention into the realm of speech."

Writing in dissent, Stevens called allowing for-profit corporations to spend money on electioneering communications "misguided."

"The conceit that corporations must be treated identically to natural persons in the politicalsphere is not only inaccurate but also inadequate to justify the Court's disposition of this case," Stevens wrote. "The Court's ruling threatens to undermine the integrityof elected institutions across the Nation."

Meanwhile, Stevens said the ruling did not hew to the Court's traditional respect for previously settled law. "The Court today rejects a century of history when it treats the distinction between corporate and individual campaign spending as an invidious novelty."

Check Hotline OnCall throughout the day as we hear from top election law experts on the fallout from a case that could dramatically alter the American electoral landscape.

A week after announcing he would abandon a stalled GOV bid and run for SEN, ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R-CA) is staked to an early lead in the race for the GOP nod, according to the results of a new Field Poll out today.

Campbell leads ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) by a small margin for the right to challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) runs a distant third.

The Field Poll surveyed 958 LVs between 1/5-17, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. The GOP primary matchup was tested among a relatively small sample of 202 LVs, with a margin of error of +/- 6.9%.

Primary Election Matchup

Campbell  30%
Fiorina   25
DeVore     6

General Election Matchups

Boxer     48%
Campbell  38
Boxer     51%
DeVore    34
Boxer     50%
Fiorina   35

The Fiorina camp seemed eager to use Campbell's entrance into the race and this poll, combined with Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R) recent victory in MA, to pivot away from perception that Fiorina is the establishment candidate despite being a political newcomer.

"We continue to be encouraged by the polling in this race showing that Carly is a strong candidate both in the primary and in the general election and also showing that voters are highly unsatisfied with Barbara Boxer's continued support for bigger government and higher taxes," said Fiorina dep. mgr. Julie Soderlund in a statement. Campbell's 3 bids for statewide office should give him high name ID, Soderlund said.

The camps have been doing their own polling, which has also shown Campbell's candidacy having a profound impact on the race. An internal Fiorina poll, taken last week during Campbell's announcement tour and obtained by Hotline OnCall, showed Fiorina and Campbell tied at 26%, with DeVore trailing at 11%.

Meanwhile, a poll commissioned and publicly released by the Campbell camp earlier this month showed him with a wider lead in the primary. That poll, conducted 1/8-10 by Wilson Research Strategies (R), showed Campbell leading Fiorina and DeVore, 31-15-12%.

The Field Poll last tested a GOP primary matchup in late Sept. into early Oct., well before Campbell jumped into the race. That poll showed Fiorina and DeVore essentially tied (Fiorina led 21%-20%). So while Campbell has snatched a slight lead from Fiorina in the Field Poll, he may have also taken away DeVore's raison d'être as the Fiorina alternative.

In the general, Boxer maintains a double-digit lead against all comers, though she does continue to hover around 50%. In the fall poll, she held similar leads over Fiorina (49-35%) and DeVore (50-33%).

"World News" led with MA SEN race result and featured an interview with Pres. Obama. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the MA SEN race result.

Obama sat down for an interview with ABC's Stephanopoulos 1/20 p.m.

Obama, on whether he was surprised by the Brown victory: "Certainly I think a lot of us were surprised about where this was going, about a week ago. ... Here's my assessment of not just the vote in Massachusetts, but the mood around the country. The same thing that swept Scott Brown into office swept me into office. People are angry, and they're frustrated."

Obama, on whether he's doing too much: "The question is, 'What could we not have done?' And I think that a lot of people would say, 'Health care's the one thing you didn't have to do.' Most of the other issues that we took on were not ones that I chose. ...I didn't campaign on saving the financial system."

More Obama: "Here's the problem, though. If we didn't take on health care, then when were we going to take it on?"

After the jump, more Obama, discussion on the MA SEN race, and ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC chair Howard Dean on how that race affects health care reform.

Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) heads to Washington this a.m. for what his campaign is calling a "courtesy call" visit with top sens.

Brown kicks off the day with a meeting with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who buoyed his bid with a video endorsement in the days after the new year (and before Brown's surge in the polls). McCain is also spearheading a petition through his Country First PAC calling for the Senate to seat Brown "right away."

Brown then moves on to meetings with two of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D-MA) closest colleagues: Sen. Paul Kirk (D-MA), the Kennedy confidant who is filling the seat as an interim appointee; and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), with whom Brown will be serving. A meeting with Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell rounds out the a.m.

A Brown spokesperson tells us that Brown's pick-up truck, which often joined him on the campaign trail, will not be coming to DC with him -- yet.

Brown will be returning to MA this p.m. to watch his daughter's basketball game.

His campaign expects his swearing-in to take place sometime next week. MA Sec/State William Galvin (D) has sent a letter to the Senate clerk declaring Brown the official winner, leaving it up to sens. to now decide whether to waive a 10-day waiting period on absentee ballots.

Good Thursday morning. What's the deal with Team RadioShak? They promised a stage win at the Tour Down Under, but Lance Armstrong's guys haven't even been in contention over the last 2 days.

Here's Thursday's Starting Lineup, spotlighting the people who will make tomorrow's headlines, today:

HOUSE MIN. WHIP ERIC CANTOR: As we mentioned the other day, Cantor has been out front in cheerleading the GOP in the last 3 weeks, calculating that talking up his party's chances of taking back the House could lead to more buy-in from other members of the conference.

Today, Cantor and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) sit down to breakfast with reporters at an event sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor to tout their efforts to recruit new candidates. The party has 48 candidates at some level of its Young Guns program, but if the GOP is to fully take advantage of the promising national landscape, they will need to find even more candidates.

Money, at some point, becomes an issue. The NRCC has just over $2 million in the bank if one subtracts debt from their CoH numbers. That's less than the DCCC spent on several races themselves in '08. Candidates may be fundraising better, but the national fundamentals are still lacking.

REPS. JAMES CLYBURN AND JOHN LARSON: The House Maj. Whip and the Dem Caucus Chair will preside over a joint whip and caucus meeting this morning at the Capitol Visitors Center. It will be the first time the entire Dem caucus meets since Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) won election Tuesday.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall for this one! We hear DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has talked to several members following Brown's win, encouraging them to continue running for re-election instead of taking the opportunity to resign ahead of a tough election cycle. Meanwhile, the meeting could decide the fate of health care legislation, topic number one on the agenda this morning.

Some days, it seems like Pres. Obama can't get no satisfaction from Wall Street.

With a market confident of a GOP victory in MA SEN, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose an impressive 115.78 points Tuesday, ending the day at a 15-month high. As the New York Times wrote, "the possibility that the dynamics of the health care debate could shift helped spur Wall Street higher."

Shares among health insurers, nursing home providers and drug companies were up on hopes that state Sen. Scott Brown (R) would become Sen.-elect Brown.

Wall Street's apparent hostility to Obama's signature domestic policy bookends a wild first year for the market and the pres. When Obama was sworn into office 364 days prior to Brown's victory, the Dow Jones greeted him into office with a 332.13 point plummet. It was one of the "worst Inauguration Day losses in more than a century."

Still, despite the Brown-bounce yesterday, the market appear to be closing today down over 100 points, erasing yesterday's gains.

However, the market likes a lot of what it sees: The Dow has gained over 3,000 points in Obama's first year in office.

GOPers are ecstatic with Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) win last night. Dems are despondent, and bickering, over AG Martha Coakley's (D) loss.

But while DC debates the fate of Pres. Obama's health care initiative, both Dem and GOP strategists are pouring over each other's strategies, searching for clues that will give them a leg up in this fall's midterms.

Culled from a variety of Dem and GOP advisors, aides and consultants, Hotline OnCall has distilled the lessons learned from last night into a list of the 5 most important practical takeaways from the MA SEN contest:

5. Communication Is Key: DC Dems, Martha Coakley's strategists don't think very much of you right now. Coakley strategists, the same goes for DC Dems. Regardless of all the bickering about who is to blame, the simple fact is that communication between the MA-based campaign and the DC-based establishment completely broke down. Only when it was too late did the national party get involved.

On the other side, the NRSC began to mobilize last month, investing major dollars in the race and building an infrastructure with the help of the MA GOP and the Brown campaign. The groups shared polling information, on-the-ground strategy and message techniques. One system worked. One didn't. And now GOPers have 41 votes in the Senate.

4. Strong Candidates Matter: By all accounts, Brown was personable, in touch with his base and with parts of the electorate that might not have voted for him otherwise and a dogged campaigner. Coakley was aloof, didn't know -- or didn't care -- that Curt Schilling played for the Red Sox and took a significant part of the general election campaign off.

Take a look at some of the Dems who beat GOPers over recent years, or at Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) in '09. Even in conservative districts, Dems who were significantly better candidates than their GOP rivals won, while McDonnell stomped his Dem foe in a state that is trending toward Dems. Quality campaigns matter a lot, but having a gaffe-free candidate can elevate a good campaign to a great one. Even in the era of big-money politics, strong candidates can still make the difference.

3. Stay Home: This should come as a shock to exactly no one -- voters are angry, and DC is getting the brunt of the anger. Coakley's decision to come to DC a week before Election Day for a fundraiser with lobbyists may go down as one of the worst decisions in recent campaign history. With apologies to The Weekly Standard's John McCormack, it wasn't the incident in which a well-known Coakley aide shoved him that got MA voters angry, it was Coakley's very presence in DC.

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell may have had to give away the store to convince ND Gov. John Hoeven (R) to run, but the decision paid off.

Hoeven is such an overwhelming favorite in his race to replace retiring Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) that McConnell, in a stop in Fargo earlier this week, said he had already decided to hand Hoeven 2 coveted committee assignments when he joins the Senate in Jan. '11.

McConnell will give Hoeven a spot on the Appropriations Committee and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, making him one of the tiny number of freshmen to get the plum posts.

McConnell, an appropriator himself, will have a few seats to hand out even if the GOP doesn't increase their majorities in the upper chamber. Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO), Judd Gregg (R-NH) and George Voinovich (R-OH) are all retiring at the end of the year, freeing up coveted spots. More could become avaiable if GOPers, as expected, win more seats this year.

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is the only GOPer on the energy panel. Hoeven would also replace Dorgan, the number 2 Dem on Energy and the 8th-ranking Dem on Approps. Dorgan also chairs the Indian Affairs Committee and sits on the powerful Commerce Committee.

Meanwhile, ND GOPers will kick off their '10 campaigns with a Feb. 12 visit from Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN). She will headline a "Take Back Washington" rally at a Best Western in Bismarck, the party announced yesterday.

In the wake of losing a Dem-held seat in one of the most heavily Dem states in the nation, DSCC chair Bob Menendez on Wednesday promised "concrete steps" to right the listing ship.

"We're going to conduct a forensic examination of each of our campaigns and our candidates," Menendez told Hotline OnCall in an interview. "That doesn't mean a shift to the right or the left or the center, it just means making sure that they're calibrated to the volatility of this electorate."

After issuing an unusually frank statement in the wake of Dems' loss last night, Menendez acknowledged that his party has a problem at the moment with independent voters.

"Democrats have to do a better job of engaging and delivering with independnet voters, and that means being focused on the issues they care about most, which is jobs, the economy and spending. There's a lot of economic angst and anxiety out there. There's a lot of impatience out there. And I think the electorate, particularly with independents, needs to be seeing Democrats, even though we did do important things this last year like the stimulus and the omnibus for the purposes of this, bottom line is they have to see us focused like a laser beam on these issues," he said. "If we do that, I think we can be very successful in November."

To do so, Menendez said Dem candidates need to position themselves as agents of change, something MA AG Martha Coakley (D) failed to do in her losing race against Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R). Even though Brown has served for years in the state legislature, he was able to effectively cast himself as an outsider.

Coakley, meanwhile, ran a largely passive race after the election and didn't even run TV ads until the final 2 weeks. That, Menendez said, should serve as a warning to every Dem seeking a Senate seat this year.

"They have to be aggressive, and that to me means, as I've been saying to both our incumbents and our open seat candidates before this election, that this election has to be about a contrast," Menendez said. "You have to clearly define yourself before your opponent defines you. You have to frame the election in the appropriate way, and, lastly, you have to define your opponent, so that the choice is crystal clear."

Choice elections are the right way for Dems to go. Dem sources have pointed to polls that show Obama policies beating those of Pres. Bush by wide margins. Still, saying an election is a choice is one thing; Coakley, ex-NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and VA state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) all tried that. Actually making voters believe it is another thing; all 3 Dems lost, as did dozens of GOPers who ran for office in '06 and '08.

But Menendez pointed out that all 3 Dems started making those contrasts very late in the campaign, and he said doing so earlier would
pay dividends.

"If you frame the race earlier, if you defined their candidate and their positions earlier, then you have a real opporutnity to succeed in this election. I think that contrast works. The contrast doesn't work if you try to define it in the waning stages of the campaign," he said.

The DSCC chair also said the party believes it has found an effective issue with which to attack GOPers and label them out of touch. In the race's final week, Dems attacked Brown for opposing a proposed tax on banks that took bailout money. Casting the election as Wall Street vs. Main Street, the ultimate insider against outsider contest, could give Dems a leg up.

In the wake of winning MA, GOPers are looking to put 1 more state in play if they can convince House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence to run against Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN).

Pence and his aides will meet with top staffers at the NRSC tomorrow, several sources tell Hotline OnCall, where they will discuss a possible bid. The NRSC has polled IN, and their survey shows Pence in a competitive position, though he trails Bayh in initial matchups.

GOPers have failed to recruit a top-tier challenger against the popular 2-term incumbent, thanks largely to Bayh's bankroll. He had $12.7M in the bank as of Sept. 30, and GOPers expect he would be able to raise many more millions before Election Day.

But Pence has a base, especially as the number 3 GOPer in the House, and top Senate strategists believe he would be able to raise the money to compete with Bayh. He also has the national ambition, and Senate strategists plan to point out those ambitions are difficult to achieve without a Senate seat.

Yet Pence's team is acutely aware of the financial challenge such a race would pose, and he had just $462K CoH at the end of the 3rd quarter. Pence's decision will rest heavily on whether the NRSC would make a financial commitment to help make up the early difference, a source close to Pence said. The source also said Pence is unlikely to turn down the offer soon, indicating he is taking the notion seriously.

Bayh has made an effort to distance himself from the WH in recent days. A story in the Indianapolis Star on Monday highlighted Bayh as the Senate Dem who most often votes against Pres. Obama's agenda, which he opposed 23% of the time. But GOP strategists said Bayh's votes in favor of health care, the stimulus bill and other measures would make him vulnerable to the same argument that has Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in trouble -- that theirs represents the 60th vote in favor of unpopular legislation.

A Pence spokesperson downplayed the possibility that he is considering seeking a promotion.

"Mr. Pence is flattered by the speculation but is focused on electing House Republicans and serving the needs of his constituents in Indiana," spokesperson Matt Lloyd said in an email.

RNC chair Michael Steele still won't say his party is set to take back Congress, even after capturing a Senate seat in one of the bluest states in the country.

Appearing on ABC's "Good Morning America," Steele basked in the glow of Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R) win over MA AG Martha Coakley (D) last night, calling it a "repudiation" of Pres. Obama's policies. But he sounded less optimistic when asked whether the GOP would win the House and Senate.

"I think we're very well on our way at this pace to certainly narrow the margin in the United States Senate as we will in the House, and we'll see how the rest of it plays out," Steele told George Stephanopoulos. "But, look, our goal is to get control of this out-of-control government and help the american people realize what theyant want this their pocketbooks."

GOP officials on Capitol Hill erupted in anger earlier this month when Steele said his party would not take back the House and wondered if the GOP was even ready to lead again. After those remarks, House and Senate leadership aides vented their frustration in a conference call, during which RNC staffers admitted they had no control over the chairman.

Meanwhile, other GOPers, most notably House Min. Whip Eric Cantor, have been suggesting that winning back at least the lower chamber is a possibility. Cantor will meet with reporters early Thursday, where he and chief deputy whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will discuss the party's recruiting successes so far this year.

Steele cast Brown's victory as a major defeat for the Obama admin., arguing that Brown's pledge to be the 41st vote against health care reform is effectively a death knell for the legislation.

"I think the country is sighing a sigh of relief and certainly for the Democrats. This is clearly not the change they expected, but it's certainly the change that the people of Massachusetts, like the people in New Jersey and Virginia, wanted," Steele said.

"It's not about the president personally," he added. "It is about his policies. This is a repudiation of the direction the president is taking the nation on health care, on spending, on the economy, job creation and a whole host of things that are wrapped around people's lives right to you and if you don't get that, if you don't hear that from the american people, you're going to continue down this pathway of losing elections over issues that people are telling you are very clear to address with them."

MD Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) would defeat his predecessor, ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R), if the GOPer decides to seek his old job, according to a new survey.

The poll, conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, an Annapolis-based firm, surveyed 816 RVs between Jan. 13-17 for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. O'Malley and Ehrlich were tested.

General Election Matchup

           All / Dem / GOP / Ind
O'Malley   48% / 73% /  8% / 39% (-1 from last, 9/09)
Ehrlich    39  / 16  / 81  / 36  (+1)

Despite a sometimes rocky 1st term, O'Malley remains largely popular throughout the state; 46% approve of the job he's doing, including a narrow plurality of indie voters, while 36% disapprove. That's up from a low of 37% approval, which came after a Nov. '07 special session.

And Ehrlich is not repeating the cross-party appeal he demonstrated when he won the state's top job in '02. That year, he earned 30% of the Dem vote, according to the pollster. This time around, he manages just half that.

Meanwhile, as in most states, the economy dominates voters' thinking. 54% said the economy is the most important issue facing the state, while just 11% cited health care and 10% said taxes. O'Malley holds a narrow lead among those who say the economy matters most and a 3-1 lead among those who said health care was most important. Ehrlich has a 74%-9% lead among those who singled out taxes as their top issue.

In heavily blue MD, O'Malley beat Ehrlich by a 53%-46% margin in '06.

NRSC chair John Cornyn on Wednesday touted Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R) election in MA as a direct result of voter dissatisfaction, an attribute Cornyn believes will give his party a leg up in key target states this year.

In a memo to be distributed today, Cornyn credits Brown's win to an "utter dissatisfaction with the status quo." What could be more worrying for Dems, he said, is that Pres. Obama has no coattails while Brown's reliance on traditional GOP strengths swept him to victory -- even in deep-blue MA.

Brown's "positive vision for the state ran contrary to Martha Coakley's negative attacks and unwavering support for the Democrat establishment in Washington," Cornyn wrote. "And Brown's message resonated with Massachusetts families, seniors, and small business owners who have rejected President Obama's massive health care takeover and the Democrats' failed stimulus debacle."

The GOP victory is the third in the last 12 months in a state Obama won. But while VA and NJ, where the party elected Govs. Bob McDonnell (R) and Chris Christie (R) last year, gave Obama their electoral votes, no GOP WH campaign has seriously contested MA in 20 years, giving Dems serious cause for concern.

The results will have a real impact on the '10 playing field, and it's hard to see how Dems gain. The race for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat showed, Cornyn said, there are no such things as political legacies. That has to give someone like DE AG Beau Biden (D), son of the sitting VP, pause when he considers what could be an uphill battle against Rep. Mike Castle (R) for Joe Biden's old seat.

Meanwhile, Cornyn pointed to NV, CO, IL and PA -- all states held by Dems, and all states that Obama won by big margins. But Dem incumbents trail in most of those states, giving GOPers a chance to take back seats Obama and Interior Sec. Ken Salazar once held; one held by Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and one held by party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA).

What's worse, Cornyn said, is that Dems' electoral strategy has not worked. Top Dem strategists have said they will try to make the election a choice between Dems and GOPers, rather than a referendum on the majority party. But Dem candidates in MA, VA and NJ all tried to make their elections a choice, and in all 3 cases voters sided with the GOP.

"The Democrats have replaced the 'politics of hope' with the politics of blame and irresponsibility during the first year of Barack Obama's presidency. For the last year, the Obama Administration has offered one answer for the problems of the day: To blame the previous administration," Cornyn wrote. "But voters realize that there is only one party who bailed out the automakers and insurance companies, forced a failed stimulus debacle through Congress, advocated for an energy tax, and attempted to take over America's health care system."

"As we look forward to November, Democrats nationwide should be on notice: Voters are looking for checks-and-balances, and they are prepared to hold the party in power accountable for their irresponsible spending and out-of-touch agenda in Washington," he added.

"World News" and "Evening News" led with the MA SEN race. "Nightly News" led with Haiti.

Pols and pundits reacted on cable 1/19 to Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) win in the MA SEN race

Ex-MD LG Kathleen Kennedy Townsend: "The best thing is to remember Tip O'Neill who said that all politicians are local. They like politicians who work hard for them, who seem to know that this is an important election, who fight for it. And I think the sad thing is we didn't see Martha Coakley doing that. I'm disappointed."

More Townsend: "But I think it tells everybody that the voters want you to say, I want your vote. I'm going to be out in the cold. I'm going to be out in the heat. I'm going to be up early and up late, to be with you and to fight for you. Because people are angry and they're angry with reason" ("LKL," CNN, 1/19).

After the jump, more reactions to the race, a discussion on the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D-MA) role in the race and the consequences to health care reform.

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) said any hope for a compromise between House and Senate health care reform legislation is dead following his state's election of a GOP senator last night.

"I think the measure that would have passed, that is, some compromise between the House and Senate bill, which I would have voted for, although there were some aspects of both bills I would have liked to see change, I think that's dead," Frank said in an interview Wednesday morning on Sirius-XM Radio. "It is certainly the case that the bill that would have passed, a compromise between the House and Senate bills, isn't going to pass, in my judgment, and certainly shouldn't."

Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, shepherded his own version of health care legislation through his committee last year. But, he said, election results should be respected, and Dems should avoid trying to force a vote through Congress before Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) takes his seat.

"I know some of my Democratic colleagues had been thinking about ways to, in effect, get around the results by working in various parliamentary ways, looking at the rules, trying to get a health care bill passed that would have been the same bill that would have passed if [MA AG] Martha Coakley [D] had won, and I think that's a mistake," Frank said. "I will not support an effort to push through a House-Senate compromise bill despite an election. I'm disappointed in how it came out, but I think electoral results have to be respected."

"I don't think it would be appropriate for the Democrats to say well, we're going to -- for instance, some of the right-wing people were suggesting [Dems] were going to delay seating Sen. Brown so that Sen. [Paul] Kirk, the appointed successor to Sen. Kennedy, could give it the 60th vote. That would be very wrong. I would oppose it, and wouldn't vote for any bill that was a product of that," Frank added.

The comments came just hours after other Dems suggested they, too, would not go along with an effort to finish health care legislation before Brown takes his seat. Last night, Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) became the first to call for a suspension of health care votes until Brown joins his new colleagues.

"It is vital that we restore the respect of the American people in our system of government and in our leaders. To that end, I believe it would only be fair and prudent that we suspend further votes on health care legislation until Senator-elect Brown is seated," Webb said in a statement.

Frank, who represents a southeastern MA district based in Newton, Tauton and New Bedford, lavished praise on the Dem nominee in his home state, but he admitted she proved less adept on the campaign trail than Brown had.

"I'm disappointed. Martha Coakley has been a great attorney general and she would have been a great senator, but she was not a very good candidate. And Scott Brown was a very good candidate," he said.

Meanwhile, Frank said health care legislation should go back to square one, and that prospect offers hope of finding a bipartisan solution.

"We are back to where we were maybe even years ago. That is, there is now no bill that I believe can pass or should pass," he said. But, he added, Dems may find a newly willing ally in Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), the only Senate GOPer to vote in favor of any health care legislation. "Sen. Snowe may be willing to work now with her Democratic colleagues, and maybe 3, 4, 5, 6 other Republicans would be, to try and put something together. If that's not the case, and Sen. Snowe and others aren't for some fairly significant changes, then we'll go into the election with the health care status quo."

Good Wednesday morning. Our prediction: The GOP side of Congress may be a little slow at returning phone calls today. Some folks may have celebrated a bit longer than they planned last night.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, spotlighting the people who will matter following last night's MA SEN contest:

SEN.-ELECT SCOTT BROWN: From state Senate to the U.S. Senate, Brown has become a star in a few short weeks. GOPers around the country are hitching themselves to his wagon, calling themselves "Scott Brown GOPers" even before his 52%-47% upset over MA AG Martha Coakley (D) last night.

Brown reproduced much of VA Gov. Bob McDonnell's (R) path to electoral success: He emphasized bread-and-butter issues, downplayed any talk of social issues (unlike McDonnell, Brown isn't much of a social conservative anyway) and connected with voters who are angry with the direction of the country. Meanwhile, he faced an opponent who, like state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D), tried to cast the race in stark partisan terms. The major lesson: Anger at DC trumps traditional partisan ties for weak Dems.

Despite some hints from Dems that they would try to rush through a health care bill before Brown is seated, comments from Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) and Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid make that unlikely. Brown will arrive in DC as a celebrity, and, rightly, a reason for GOPers to go on offense.

PRES. OBAMA: Inaugurated a year ago today, Obama faces a much different political landscape than he did when he took over. Remember when the GOP was but an afterthought in an overwhelmingly Dem DC? Now, without a doubt, the GOP is on offense, and Brown's win effectively scuttles any major domestic agenda Obama had for his second year.

To borrow an old phrase, But wait, there's more! As we've mentioned before, there is a strong correlation between pres. approval ratings and his party's performance in midterm elections. If Obama enters the midterm elections with between 50% and 59% approval ratings, Dems will lose 5-9 seats, historically speaking. If that rating slips under 50%, the majority party loses an average of 30 seats -- and can lose many, many more.

Obama's approval rating stands right on the brink of disaster for Dems, at exactly 50%, according to the latest Gallup figures, or at 49.1%, according to the Pollster.com aggregate. But, in a new report released today, Gallup points out that the pres.'s approval rating falls an average of 5 points in his 2nd year in office. With a curtailed domestic agenda and an electorate that remains angry with DC, Obama will be hard-pressed to break out of the mold. That means a bad year for Dems.

MA State Sen. Scott Brown (R) will take a Senate seat once held by the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, the first time GOPers have held the seat in more than half a century.

Early results showed Brown cruising to a big win over MA AG Martha Coakley (D), following a surprising final 2 weeks. A race that Dems once took for granted quickly swung toward Brown amid a sense of anger at the Dem majorities in DC.

With 95% of the vote in, Brown led by a 52%-47% margin. Coakley called Brown to concede the race shortly after 9 p.m.

In the last week, Dems sent reinforcements to MA, including top communications and political strategists, as well as surrogates like ex-Pres. Bill Clinton. On Sunday, Pres. Obama himself made an appearance, though it failed to motivate enough Dems to push Coakley over the top.

Brown's victory will make Dem efforts to pass health care legislation, once championed by Kennedy himself, exceedingly difficult. Dems have options to avoid a GOP filibuster in the Senate, but the majority has been scrambling in recent days to make contingency plans. Still, without a 60-vote majority in the Senate, Pres. Obama's first-term agenda will be severely curtailed.

GOPers watched poll results a month ago and, sensing a trend, the NRSC quietly transfered $500K to the MA GOP to begin building a turnout operation, sources said Tuesday. The under-the-radar strategy seemingly worked to lull Dems into a false sense of security.

"Even in the bluest of blue states, Scott Brown's message resonated with families, seniors, and small business owners who have rejected President Obama's massive health care takeover and the Democrats' out-of-control spending agenda in Washington," NRSC chair John Cornyn said. "Scott Brown ran an amazing campaign, and the NRSC was proud to be a part of this incredible effort."

"As we look forward to the midterm elections this November, Democrats nationwide should be on notice: Americans are ready to hold the party in power accountable for their irresponsible spending and out-of-touch agenda, and they're ready for real change in Washington," Cornyn added.

GOPers quickly cast the race as a repudiation of health care legislation.

"There's a reason the nation was focused on this race: The voters in Massachusetts, like Americans everywhere, have made it abundantly clear where they stand on health care," Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement. "They don't want this bill and want Washington to listen to them. Americans are investing their hopes in good Republican candidates to reverse a year-long Democrat trend of ignoring the American people on the issues of health care, spending and the growth of government."

While GOPers celebrated their victory, recriminations among Dems began days ago. WH officials and top Dem strategists began questioning Coakley's campaign tactics, including her lack of campaigning and her decision to come to DC just a week before Election Day to hold a fundraiser with health care lobbyists. Meanwhile, a Coakley advisor penned a memo criticizing national Dems for being asleep at the switch and failing to recognize the very real threat Brown presented.

Note: Published at 10:10 p.m.

WH Press Sec. Robert Gibbs: "This evening the President spoke to both candidates in the hard-fought Massachusetts Senate race. The President congratulated Senator Brown on his victory and a well-run campaign. The President told Senator Brown that he looks forward to working with him on the urgent economic challenges facing Massachusetts families and struggling families across our nation. The President thanked Attorney General Coakley for her hard work and urged her to continue her advocacy on behalf of working people."

RNC Chair Michael Steele: "Tonight, Scott Brown made history by exceeding all expectations and defeating Martha Coakley in the heart of the Democrat Party's political stronghold. I extend my sincere congratulations to Scott, the Brown family, and his team on their tremendous come from behind victory to become the first Republican U.S. Senator from Massachusetts in more than 30 years."

MA GOP Chair Jennifer Nassour: "Tonight's historic, come-from-behind victory by Senator-elect Brown will serve as a blueprint for our Republican candidates running in Massachusetts in 2010 and beyond. His relentless focus on fiscal responsibility, lower taxes and a promise to serve as an independent voice for Bay Staters resonated with not only Republicans, but also independents and Democrats who are tired of politics as usual and one-party rule."

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R): "I want to applaud Scott Brown on his historic victory tonight. I was privileged to speak with him just a short time ago and congratulated him myself. Senator-elect Brown's vote and voice will be critical in helping get America back on the right track. I am proud in having supported him, and, as I told the diligent phone bankers in Jacksonville last night, I am grateful to all Republicans across Florida for their involvement in helping his campaign."

Crist's primary rival, ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R): "I congratulate Scott Brown on his impressive victory. Scott Brown's remarkable campaign in the bluest of blue states has reinvigorated those who believe Washington's endless spending and government growth are incompatible with America's proven tradition of putting our faith in individuals and entrepreneurs to create jobs and lead us forward."

Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) became the first sen. to call for suspending all health care votes until the newly-elected sen. is seated. Webb, in a statement: "It is vital that we restore the respect of the American people in our system of government and in our leaders. To that end, I believe it would only be fair and prudent that we suspend further votes on health care legislation until Senator-elect Brown is seated."

WIth 2066 of 2168 precincts, or 95%, reporting:

General Election Results
Scott Brown (R)     1,103,326    52%
Martha Coakley (D)   995,329    47
Joe Kennedy (L)          21,216     1 

The MA polls are still open, and there are still a few more hours before we find out whether voters have decided to send state Sen. Scott Brown (R) or AG Martha Coakley (D) to Washington.

But whether Brown wins or loses, RNC Chair Michael Steele wants you to know that he played a hand in supporting Brown's bid.

In a memo to RNC members this p.m., Steele wrote that national GOPers have intentionally kept a low profile in the race while providing organiziational and financial support to Brown's camp. It was Dems' "scare tactics" and attempts to portray the national party as "interfering" in the race, Steele explained, that kept his committee from claiming credit -- until now.

"The Democrats of course have engaged in scurrilous name calling and scare tactics in this race, trying to take the focus away from the issues and attempting to divert attention," Steele wrote. "One of their hopes was to make an issue of 'national Republicans' interfering in this race. For this reason, we have stayed out of the limelight while supporting the Brown campaign and the Massachusetts Republican Party."

"President Reagan was fond of saying that there is no limit to what can be accomplished as long as you don't care who gets the credit," Steele wrote. "If we succeed tonight this will be a victory for our ideas, for our principles, and for the people of Massachusetts."

Steele noted that the RNC maxed out in donations to Brown in mid-Dec. and deployed several full-time staffers to the state "immediately" following the elections in Nov. '09. The cmte also made an "early decision" to support the Brown camp and the MA GOP with voter ID and GOTV operations, and has sent out 228K fundraising emails on behalf of Brown, Steele wrote.

Keen readers will recall that it wasn't too long ago that Steele was singing a similar tune, claiming credit for GOPers' victories in the NJ and VA GOV races in a post-Election Day memo penned by RNC CoS Ken McKay. And while the RGA made key decisions in those races that strategists credit with winning the race, this time it was the NRSC that poured early money -- $500K, according to reports -- into the state.

"Our financial situation now places the RNC, state parties and our candidates in a great position for unprecedented success in 2010," McKay wrote then. "Of course, all of this couldn't be done without the great work of Chairman Steele, the staff at the RNC headquarters, the dedication of the members of the national committee, and the millions of donors, volunteers and activists that spread our message across the country at all levels of government."

The RNC under Steele's watch has been raising and spending money at an unprecedented -- and unanticipated -- pace.

The cmte spent $13M on its NJ and VA wins. But despite raising $90M+ during the course of '09, it had only $8.75M CoH by the end of Nov.

Finally, some good news for Dems! Well, for 4 Dems, at least: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) raised $1.8M over the last 3 months, ending the year with $7.2M CoH. She will face the winner of a primary between ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), who gave herself $2.5M last quarter, and state Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R), who has not released his own report.

Rep. Scott Murphy (D) has been in the House for less than a year, but he's already got this fundraising thing down: He will report $722K CoH after raising $403K for the 4th quarter.

He's a top GOP target, but Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) has $834K to fight back, after raising $267K in the last 3 months. And Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) raised $215K last quarter, ending with $1.6M in the bank.

On the GOP side, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), running against Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT), and state Rep. Scott Tipton (R), challenging Rep. John Salazar (D-CO), each raised more than $100K for their bids. Caligiuri didn't report his final CoH, but Tipton had $105K left over after Dec. 31.

GOPers could be headed to an ugly primary in MI-02, where ex-NFL tight end Jay Riemersma (R) led the field with $350K raised. Businessman Bill Cooper (R) pulled in $150K. Ex-state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) and state Sen. Wayne Kuipers (R) have yet to report their hauls. The winner of the GOP primary is likely to win Rep. Pete Hoekstra's (R) open seat easily.

And in OR, state Rep. Scott Bruun (R) will report having raised $160K during his first quarter as a candidate, keeping $150K CoH. Bruun is challenging freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader (D).

Voters overwhelmingly do not want to see ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) seek the WH -- including a majority of the members of her own party.

In a new poll for CBS News, 56% of self-identified GOP voters say they do not want Palin to run for pres. Nationally, 71% say they don't want a Palin candidacy. Just 21% of all voters, and 30% of GOPers, want Palin to run.

The '08 VP nominee remains a largely unpopular figure among all but the most conservative voters. Palin has just a 26% favorable rating, the poll showed, and 41% of all voters say they view her unfavorably. 46% of conservatives see her positively, while 26% view her in an unfavorable way.

Her favorable rating remains largely unchanged, even after the launch this fall of her highly successful book. Palin's favorables have risen just 3 points from a poll conducted in July, and they haven't moved at all since Nov. Palin's unfavorables are up 4 points from the July poll and up 3 points from Nov.

Even though a plurality of conservatives see Palin favorably, they don't want her running, they say. 58% of those who described themselves as conservative said they don't want Palin running.

Meanwhile, Americans have divided views over the so-called tea party movement. Only 3 in 10 voters have an opinion of the movement, while 69% say they don't know enough to make a decision. 18% have a favorable view, including 35% of conservatives, while 12% see the movement unfavorably.

Just 46% of those who have made up their mind about the tea partiers say the movement reflects the views of most Americans, while 40% say it does not.

The poll, conducted among 1,090 adults around the country, was taken Jan. 14-17 for a margin of error of +/- 3%.

With results in MA expected to go their way tonight, GOPers are lining up to once again prove the old adage that victory has a thousand fathers. And 2 GOPers in particular are using the moment to claim their ever-growing segment of the spotlight.

Whether by design or by force, House Min. Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) has become the go-to guy for House pickup predictions over the last week. If GOPers take back Congress, Cantor and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will be among those taking credit. Cantor has raised money for the NRCC and for fellow incumbents, and McCarthy has hit the road this year looking for candidates to run against Dems, trips he has been touting for months.

Since saying his party "can" win back the majority this year at a dinner meeting with reporters, Cantor has gotten ink, and TV time, for the prediction. Cantor and McCarthy will stop by a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor later this week to talk up more of their recruits, and Cantor has several TV hits lined up in coming days.

The tour comes after Cantor's team made a decision to begin the year on offense. Political observers already believed GOPers would pick up 20 to 25 seats, but encouraging speculation that the party could reach the 40 needed to achieve a majority was designed to improve morale
. In fact, Cantor did not say anything that NRCC chair Pete Sessions himself hadn't said before -- that GOPers are playing for a majority.

"Eric Cantor believes that Democrats must be held accountable and believes that if they are, Republicans can win back the House on Nov. 2," said Brad Dayspring, a Cantor spokesperson. "He's looking forward to doing everything he possibly can to motivate Republicans from coast to coast to rally behind the team."

McCarthy, a political junkie himself, is an effective tool to use when grilled by political reporters. McCarthy is able to rattle off stats about districts and facts about candidates, thanks to his post as the NRCC's top recruiter.

Meanwhile, Cantor has waded in to some primaries that could put him at odds with an emerging Tea Party activist base. Cantor is backing state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) in the race against Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA), in a district that borders Cantor's own. The NRCC has not included Hurt in any of its "Young Guns" lists, and several of his foes used Cantor's endorsement to paint Hurt as the hand-picked candidate of the establishment GOP, a negative when Tea Party candidates get involved.

The MA polls don't close for another five hours, but already, GOP candidates are scrambling to ride state Sen. Scott Brown's (R) coattails.

Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R), who is painting himself as a conservative alternative to ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) in the race against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), emailed supporters this p.m. to let them know that he and Brown really aren't too different.

"Scott Brown and I have a lot in common," DeVore wrote in his message to supporters. "We're about the same age, we're both married with two daughters, we worked our way through local State politics, we both served for decades in the Army National Guard and we both can call upon deep business experience in the private sector."

The two are so similar, in fact, that DeVore made a generous offer to Brown.

"I have no qualm in turning my entire campaign over to Scott for his purposes today," he wrote. "In fact, I think it's the civic duty of all like-minded conservatives to do the same. The stakes are too high not to help in some measure."

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) is riding the Brown wave, as well.

"[Marco] considers Scott Brown's surge in Massachusetts to be encouraging news for true limited government Republicans everywhere," Rubio spokesperson Alex Burgos wrote to reporters in a statement this p.m.

"After all, he's an anti-stimulus, anti-ObamaCare, anti-tax Republican who has promised to go to Washington to stand up to the Obama-Reid-Pelosi agenda. His opponent is a once-heavily-favored, former state attorney general who supported the failed Obama stimulus and would be a solid vote for other Obama agenda items like cap-and-trade."

"Sound familiar?" Burgos wrote.

Never mind that both Rubio and DeVore are up against GOP contenders while Brown faces a Dem. Their emails preview a theme that -- if Brown succeeds in upending Coakley -- we're likely to hear much more of in this year's GOP primaries: conservative candidates rushing to ally themselves with Brown and his upstart bid.

The wave has even inspired other GOP candidates in deep blue MA districts to hitch their wagon to Brown's rising star.

Atty/businessman Bill Hudak (R), who's running for Congress in MA-06, was introducing himself to Brown supporters after Brown's North Andover rally yesterday.

"This wave here is unbelievable," Hudak told OnCall after the rally. "See, we've known for months that this wave was coming."

Never mind that Hudak is challenging Rep. John Tierney (D), a 7-term rep. who won his '08 re-elect bid with 70% of the vote.

"I'm going to win this congressional district with the same exact ideas that Scott Brown espouses," Hudak said. "Because the people here sincerely believe it's time, and it's not the Democratic state that people out there used to think it was anymore."

"Democrats, independents, Republicans alike -- party no longer matters," he added. "It's about the issues and what people really care about."

OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D) will share a ticket with ex-Franklin Co. Judge Yvette McGee Brown (D) running as his LG, he announced today.

McGee Brown is president of the Center for Child and Family Advocacy, a Columbus organization based at the Nationwide Children's Hospital, which she has led since '02. A Columbus native, McGee Brown went to Ohio Univ. and got her JD from OSU.

"I'm so proud to have her as my partner in this effort," Strickland says in a web video announcing his pick.

"I am so excited to be joining this ticket and to help the governor continue the progress we've made over the last 3 years," McGee Brown says.

Strickland's current LG, Lee Fisher (D), is leaving the ticket to run for retiring Sen. George Voinovich's (R) seat. Polls show Strickland in a tight race with ex-Rep. John Kasich (R), who has picked state Aud. Mary Taylor (R) as his running mate.

Looking for the latest on MA SEN? Look no farther:

MA AG Martha Coakley (D) can't catch a break -- wintry weather is hitting Dem areas almost exclusively, says Chris Good.

Any questions about the race, from voting procedures to whether Dems can actually delay seating state Sen. Scott Brown (R) if he wins, answered by The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder.

Speaking of delays, can Sen. Paul Kirk (D) even vote after today's elections? And if Brown wins, the big question becomes whether the House can pass the Senate's health care bill.

Politics Magazine's Jeremy Jacobs has a look at how Brown pulls out a win, or how Coakley stymies GOP efforts, while Blue Mass Group has town-by-town level partisan voting indicies.

The Boston Globe highlights 6 factors to watch today.

Politico's Glenn Thrush has a worrying sign for Dems: Dem voters are telling Coakley GOTV volunteers they're voting for Brown. That's very bad; turnout, the Globe reports, is basically the only way Coakley can win.

Meanwhile, recriminations among Dems began days before polls actually opened. Dems have blamed Coakley's pollster, while a House aide pointed the finger at the WH political shop. The DSCC is taking its own hits and acknowledging it will bear some responsibility. But no one will take more heat than Coakley herself, thanks to endless gaffes, missteps and questionable scheduling decisions.

If only MA AG Martha Coakley (D) had not portrayed herself as inevitable. A key theme over the past year has been a strong anti-incumbent sentiment, and by appearing as the de facto incumbent, Coakley offered herself up as a pinata for disaffected voters who would ordinarily vote Dem.

Not only has state Sen. Scott Brown (R) been working to portray himself as a "regular" guy, but -- aside from his event with ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- has been campaigning pretty much solo, delivering his stump speeches via megaphone, often outdoors, standing on a platform next to his pick-up. In other words, he's nailed the populist-style retail politicking.

Coakley, meanwhile, has wrapped herself up head-to-toe in elected-official-dom, from Pres. Obama's visit to the Kennedy clan, right down to a conf call yesterday p.m. with women mayors across MA. A glance at her official schedule shows that she's been accompanied by elected officials at nearly every campaign event.

It's hard to see how that kind of campaigning helps her shake off the image of being part of the establishment. She talks the talk in her stump speech of fighting on behalf working families -- and her record as AG and Middlesex DA gives her a good platform from which to do so -- but when it comes to campaigning, Brown walks the walk much better than she does, and seems to have a lot more fun doing it.

Part of this wasn't her choice -- from Day One, she was always going to be the candidate who was handed the Kennedy torch and laden with the Obama agenda.

"Kennedy picked up where Martin Luther King left off," a woman remarked after yesterday's MLK breakfast. "And Obama is picking up where Kennedy left off."

So where does that leave Martha Coakley?

"Martha Coakley is picking up the whole plate, because Obama can't do it all," she laughed. "He can't come to Massachusetts and run Massachusetts. He can't. But I think he's doing a great job."

Even so, judging from conversations with voters in the past few days, Coakley's linking herself Obama and Kennedy served more to fire up Brown voters against her than it's done to get Dems excited to vote for her.

Her camp could have done more to chip away at Brown's image. For instance, despite all his talk about his pick-up truck and the miles he's racked up on the odometer campaigning around the state, it happens that Brown actually hired a personal driver about five weeks ago.

The driver, Nick Taylor, a 28-year-old who had been volunteering for Brown when the campaign asked him to be Brown's driver, has been driving Brown's pick-up from event to event during his recent bus tour, while Brown himself has been riding in the campaign bus.

But the pickup truck served as a larger meme for the race. As the crowd was dispersing after Brown's North Andover stump speech, a middle-aged man and woman approached the passenger's side of Brown's pick-up and asked Taylor to roll down the window.

"You know, bud," the man said, the excitement evident in his voice, "I hope when he gets driven to this seat in the Senate, that he comes in this truck. I really do."

The Justice Department has taken up an investigation into Sen. John Ensign's (R-NV) behavior surrounding an affair he conducted in '08, according to several media reports.

Ensign admitted last summer that he had an affair with a long-time family friend. The woman was Ensign's campaign treasurer, and her husband was Ensign's administrative assistant at the time.

But the admission proved to stop short of the complete truth. Ensign's lawyer later said his parents had given the family $96K in personal checks, and Ensign allegedly helped his former top aide, Doug Hampton, land lobbying contracts before ethics laws allowed.

The expanded probe, which comes on top of a Senate ethics investigation, was first reported by Politico and NV political analyst Jon Ralston.

A source confirmed to Hotline OnCall that John Lopez, Ensign's chief of staff, has been contacted by the FBI.

"John really has a very strong reputation in Washington for integrity and professionalism, and in his years of public service he has complied with the law and worked hard for the people of Nevada," was all Lopez's attorney, Robert Kelner, would say.

Update: "Sen. Ensign believes he fully complied with all ethics laws and rules and plans to cooperate with any official inquiries," Ensign spokeswoman Rebecca Fisher said in a statement.

House Min. Leader John Boehner is making a symbolic choice for his new chief of staff, bringing back the man who directed the "Contract with America" for the GOP in '94.

Boehner announced Tuesday he has hired Barry Jackson to serve as his CoS, returning to a spot Jackson once held. In '94, Jackson was Boehner's top aide and the Contract's shepherd. Later, he served as executive director of the GOP Conference when Boehner was chair, then went on to serve in Pres. Bush's WH.

Jackson will replace Paula Nowakowski, who died unexpectedly last week. In a release, Boehner's office described Jackson as a close friend of Nowakowski, the man who brought her in to Boehner's operation.

"No one in America is better prepared or better qualified than Barry to pick up the torch in the wake of our tragic and unexpected loss," Boehner said in the statement. And, he added, the addition has an important symbolic meaning as well.

"By bringing the director of the Contract with America back to the Hill during this important time for the nation, we're sending a message that Republicans are serious about listening to the people, building a principled and lasting majority, and renewing the drive for smaller, more accountable government," Boehner said.

In recent days, top GOPers have said they will build a similar manifesto before this year's elections.

The economy may be bad, but Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA) is doing his part to keep some of his constituents employed.

The NRCC on Tuesday sent around a link to a CraigsList post in which a Boswell employee seeks part-time help collecting signatures for the 7-term congressman's re-election bid. Boswell is willing to pay $2 per valid signature, according to the ad.

If they pay for all of their signatures, Boswell will be dumping at least $3,480 into the local economy -- that's 2 bucks for each of the 1,740 signatures he needs to get on the ballot as a Dem. Boswell has to get at least 2% of his total signatures from each of 6 of the 12 counties he represents.

Boswell will face a challenge from one of several GOPers running against him in a district that has been evenly split in recent years. Boswell has won the Des Moines-based district by slim margins in recent years, though he took 56% in '08.

State Sen. Brad Zaun (R), who just entered the race, is considered a front-runner, as is ex-ISU wrestling coach Jim Gibbons (R), who reported raising $207K through the end of '09, keeping $203K in the bank. Zaun has yet to release his fundraising reports.

Boswell had $343K as of Sept. 30, FEC reports show.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) would lose his bid for a 5th term if the election were held today, according to a new survey.

The Research 2000 poll, conducted for the liberal DailyKos website, surveyed 600 LVs between Jan. 11-13 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Lieberman was tested against Rep. Chris Murphy (D) and Gov. Jodi Rell (R).

General Election Matchups

             All / Dem / GOP / Ind
Rell         47% / 21% / 64% / 63%
Murphy       25  / 57  /  4  /  6
Lieberman    23  / 19  / 28  / 24

Murphy       45  / 71  /  7  / 41
Lieberman    26  / 20  / 44  / 22

Lieberman lost his bid for the Dem nom. in '06, but he beat businessman Ned Lamont (D) in the general election, largely with backing from independent voters. But indies aren't thrilled with him anymore, making a re-election bid difficult.

Fortunately for Lieberman, though, the man who would have given him the toughest challenge, AG Richard Blumenthal (D), is already running for Senate, seeking the seat of retiring Sen. Chris Dodd (D) this year. And Lamont is looking to get back into politics, campaigning for the seat Rell is leaving vacant.

Dems are in good position to win both seats, the poll showed. In the SEN race, Blumenthal was tested against ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R), ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) and financial analyst Peter Schiff (R). In the GOV contest, Lamont and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) were tested against LG Michael Fedele (R), ex-Ambassador Tom Foley (R) and Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R).

SEN Election Matchups

Blumenthal   54   Blumenthal   56   Blumenthal   56
Simmons      35   McMahon      34   Schiff       33

GOV Election Matchups

Lamont       46   Lamont       46   Lamont       46
Fedele       36   Foley        37   Boughton     34

Malloy       44   Malloy       43   Malloy       44
Fedele       35   Foley        37   Boughton     34

The poll also tested Sec/State Susan Bysiewicz (D) against all 3 GOPers, showing Bysiewicz receiving more than 50% of the vote against each. Bysiewicz dropped her bid for GOV last week, instead declaring she will run for AG now that Blumenthal is running for Dodd's seat.

Brown mobbed by fans in North Andover

In interviews, many Brown supporters and a surprising number of Coakley backers said they thought going negative on Brown's character hurt Coakley. Some Dems pointed to the "rape" ads as particularly over-the-top. And we were hard pressed to find any Dems who cited any of the arguments in the negative ads as a reason they were voting for Coakley.

While the enviro might have been bad for any Dem from the start, it seems Coakley didn't do herself any favors by going so negative so late. In some respects, by the time it was clear she was in trouble, she didn't really have any choice.

One thing the Coakley camp could have done to avoid being forced to go so negative is define Brown's character from the beginning. Instead, hewing perhaps a little too closely to the frontrunner playbook, her camp largely ignored him.

Yes, Coakley sparred with Brown on the issues, early and often. And her camp took advantage of every opportunity to remind voters he was a GOPer. But until the race started tightening, she did little to define Brown in terms of character: No ads decrying his inexperience, no dredging up gaffes from his past, no attempt to answer the question, "Who is Scott Brown?" for voters largely unfamiliar with the state sen. from Wrentham.

As a result, by the time Brown began pulling ahead last week, his feel-good ads showing him in his kitchen, or driving his truck, or campaigning on the streets of South Boston, had already begun resonating with voters.

He was, and still pretty much is, a likable, "average" guy -- a blank slate. Over the weekend, a surprising number of Dems along the trail had good things to say about Brown as a person: some called him "handsome," or said he "seems like a nice guy." Even Obama, while stumping for Coakley, conceded that he "didn't know much" about Brown before going on to make fun of his truck. Not a very rousing call to action for Dems.

The GOPers at Brown rallies were completely adoring. In West Springfield, Brown was mobbed by supporters after his speech. One man approached him and asked him to sign his Playstation Pro. Middle-aged women flocked to get their picture taken with him. One fan patted him on the back and told him how much he loved the "kitchen" ad.

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the relief effort in Haiti.

Vicki Kennedy sat down for an interview with MSNBC's O'Donnell that aired on "Hardball" 1/18 p.m. and discussed the MA SEN race.

Kennedy, on why it's a close race: "But I think we have to ask for people's vote. Certainly that's the way my husband always ran. You always ask for everyone's vote, for everyone's support. You can't take anything for granted. We shouldn't take anything for granted. Tip O'Neill said it best, all politics is local; if you don't ask people for their vote, for their support --"

O'Donnell: "But nobody expected months ago that this would be this close and that a Republican could actually win this seat."

Kennedy: "We're all out there asking people for their help and for their support. I think that tomorrow we're going to have a good victory
with Martha Coakley" (MSNBC, 1/18).

After the jump, Brown supporter/ex-Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, pols and pundits weigh in on the race.

Good Tuesday morning. Hope the long weekend treated you well. For those who get sucked in to the Tour De France every year, welcome back to cycling season! The Tour Down Under begins today in Australia.

To borrow a phrase from one of our favorite political writers, voters are voting! Here's a special MA SEN version of Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup:

STATE SEN. SCOTT BROWN: As stunning as it sounds, the GOP nominee heads into election day as the front-runner. Polls have shown him leading, and the latest surveys all show him gaining steam, even as Dems sought to drive up his negatives in the closing week. Brown has energized GOP voters and simply outworked his Dem rival, and most importantly for his party, GOPers are on the brink of reclaiming a minority that is able to filibuster legislation.

But today will not be for celebrating until the polls close at 8 p.m. Dems have a far superior turnout operation, and the focus around Boston -- where Mayor Tom Menino has a serious machine of his own -- will make Brown's path a challenge. A Dem source sends word this morning that Dems account for the vast majority of absentee ballots already turned in, and that younger voters more inclined to voting Dem have turned out more than 35-49 year-olds, who are more likely to back Brown.

What of MA AG Martha Coakley (D)? Her campaign is already the subject of backbiting and Dem recriminations. Her misstatements, gaffes and perplexing decisions, both to stay off the trail for so long and to come to DC in the race's final week for a fundraiser with lobbyists, have ensured that, if she does lose, Dems in MA will think twice before nominating her for another higher office.

THE POLLSTERS: Let's be honest, it's been a worse stretch for pollsters than any since Dewey defeats Truman. The AAPOR conducted a special review in the wake of badly mistaken NH primary polls in Jan. '08, and a series of special elections over the past 12 months haven't made it any easier. The day before election day, one pollster had accountant Doug Hoffman (C) up 16 points over businessman Bill Owens. Owens is now a member of Congress, and Hoffman is running against him in '10.

The final polls before MA voters cast ballots show Brown leading by anywhere from 3 points, in an American Research Group survey, to 10 points, in polls by the Merriman River Group and CrossTarget (See a complete list of final polls over at Pollster.com). One pollster, Research 2000, showed the race tied in a survey conducted for the liberal DailyKos website. But Even R2K has Coakley losing 8 points in the last week, meaning even the best poll Dems have to show off has momentum cascading toward Brown.

DORCHESTER, MA -- After a long day of campaigning that brought her from Boston to the Berkshires and back again, MA AG Martha Coakley (D) rallied union members at a phone bank amid worried backers.

Joined by her husband and niece, Coakley spoke for just over five minutes at the IBEW Local 103 in an event added to her campaign schedule late in the day.

"We know in Massachusetts that just because you drive around in a truck doesn't mean you're going in the right direction," Coakley said, repeating a theme from recent days as state Sen. Scott Brown (R) has been gaining ground in public opinion polling.

"It's Martha Coakley on Tuesday, and it's all about you," Coakley told the cheering crowd.

But while union members rallied around Coakley at the event, in interviews before the speech, they conveyed a sense of worry about the race.

Asked if he thought Dems were excited about voting tomorrow, Anthony Grillo paused.

"I don't know if 'excited' is the word," Grillo, a construction worker from Boston, said. "I think there's a lot of concern out there."

"I'm worried about that 60th seat in the Senate," Grillo added. But he noted that despite the high stakes, a lot of working-class voters have developed a sense of apathy.

"People just want to go and they want to eat dinner tonight and, you know, lucky if you can send a kid to school," he said.

Frank Kelly, a 50-year-old union electrician from Brockton, sounded a similar note.

"Pretty concerned," Kelly responded when asked how he was feeling about Coakley's campaign. "It seems like her opponent has gathered quite a bit of support over the past couple of weeks."

Kelly chalked up Brown's recent gains to his "pretty-boy face" and his pick-up truck. "I think a lot of people failed to see the real issues that we, as organized labor, look for -- and that's to put money in our pocket," Kelly said.

"It's all about the dollar and what Martha Coakley has done for us," he added.

K.J. Tallent, 38, a union electrician from South Boston, described himself as "cautiously optimistic," but he said he felt the Brown campaign had made inroads by playing up the anti-establishment rhetoric.

"People are just in a state of discontent with the economy and everything," Tallent said. "I think it's just unfortunate timing for the Democrats -- that times are tough and we happen to be in control. And it's an easy target."

DORCHESTER, MA -- Speaking with reporters after rallying union members at the IBEW Local 103 here, MA AG Martha Coakley (D) questioned the accuracy of polls showing her losing to state Sen. Scott Brown (R).

"Every race has its own dynamic," Coakley said. "We had a tough primary. I came out of that primary ahead. I might note that many of the polls during that primary were totally inaccurate."

"We think the polls are inaccurate," she continued. "It's just very difficult to figure out in a short race, special election, in a state race we've never had before. So until those votes are counted tomorrow, I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen."

Coakley painted Brown as in step with national GOPers.

"It's become pretty clear in the last few days that Scott Brown, regardless of what he says, or regardless the truck that he drives around in, is basically going to be in lockstep with national Republicans," Coakley said. "He's going to say no to any progress. His truck is stuck in reverse, and I think voters know that."

Asked to make her pitch to undecided voters, Coakley urged them to look closely at the differences between herself and Brown.

"What I say to them is make sure you know for whom you're voting. Check out the websites. Check out the positions. Check out the records," Coakley said.

"If anybody understands what the difference is between me and Scott Brown, they will understand that the only thing he stands for are the failed policies that got us into this economic mess in the first place," she added. "And they're going to vote Coakley."

Leading pollsters and political analysts are giving MA state Sen. Scott Brown (R) a big leg up in advance of tomorrow's special election.

Final polls in the race show Brown leading MA AG Martha Coakley (D) by significant margins. Just 1 poll released in the last 5 days does not show a Brown lead, but that poll -- a Research 2000 poll released today that shows a tie -- shows a trend away from Coakley.

Pollster.com blogger Charles Franklin points out Brown is ahead between 4 points and 11 points, depending on which polls one believes. Statistician Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com puts Brown as a 3-1 favorite over Coakley.

Meanwhile, most political observers are calling Brown a favorite. Analyst Stuart Rothenberg moved the race to his Lean Takeover category on Monday, while analyst Charlie Cook wrote Monday that the Cook Political Report has "a finger on the scale for Brown."

Dems hope a last-minute push by Pres. Obama gives Coakley a chance, but even WH strategists have told fellow Dems they believe the party will lose their 60-seat majority in the Senate.

NORTH ANDOVER, MA -- GOPers' enthusiasm was on display here this p.m. as state Sen. Scott Brown (R) drew a crowd of several hundred supporters who braved the snowy weather to meet the candidate at an outdoor rally downtown.

"Business as usual is not the business we like," Brown told the crowd, who responded with chants of, "It's our time!" and "Vote! Vote! Vote!"

Brown shook hands and took photos with supporters as he made his way down Main Street while aides could be overheard asking rally-goers to "go forward and be respectful," an indication that the campaign is concerned about incidents such as one yesterday in which a Brown supporter made disparaging remarks about AG Martha Coakley (D).

Earlier today, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) accused some of Brown's supporters of using threatening and bullying tactics, calling them "reminiscent of the dangerous atmosphere of Sarah Palin's 2008 campaign rallies."

There had been rumblings from the Coakley camp last night that Brown had been busing supporters in to rallies. A Brown spokesperson today dismissed the charge, noting that "people drove themselves," and "they might've carpooled."

In interviews, Brown supporters' reasons for backing the candidate ranged from excitement over his vow to be the 41st vote against health care reform to his message of being a voice for change.

"I'm excited about the chance that we'll be able to stop this health care bill," financial consultant Dennis Holland, 46, of North Andover, said. "I think he had the line of the decade when he said it wasn't Ted Kennedy's seat, it was the people's seat."

"I think we're finished with the one-party system," Hamilton resident Elaine Appel, 44, said. "It didn't work out. Short-lived, and it was a big disaster in Washington, and so we're really excited to send Scott Brown to shake things up."

Some GOPers at the rally pointed to Brown's candidacy as inspiring them to be more vocal about their conservatism.

An upper-level low pressure system is now expected to bring rain and snow showers to parts of MA tomorrow while voters cast their ballots in the special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D).

The current forecast calls for cloudy skies with rain showers in Boston tomorrow, with snow showers possibly mixing in during the afternoon. No snow accumulation is expected, and temperatures will run at or slightly above average in the upper 30s. Across the cape and islands, temps will reach 40, with rain showers possible.

While earlier forecasts called for some peaks of sun and no chance of precipitation, this forecast isn't the worst-case scenario for turnout. Mid-Jan. brings chances of bitterly cold weather and heavy snows, but tomorrow's forecast calls for moderate temperatures and mostly light precipitation.

As a general rule, inclement weather favors Republicans and candidates supported by higher-intensity voters. Most polls show that state Sen. Scott Brown's (R) supporters are more enthusiastic than those planning to vote for AG Martha Coakley (D).

Meanwhile, many Bay Staters also woke up to a fresh snowfall today. There were roughly two inches of snow on the ground in Boston early this morning, and more snow was expected during the early part of the day - along with brisk, windy conditions. Away from the coast there was more snow; five inches were reported at daybreak in Andover in Essex Co.

Hotline staff writer Felicia Sonmez contributed to this report from Boston.

Ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R) said he will not enter the MN GOV race in a statement posted late Sunday on his Facebook page.

"Timing is everything. The timing on this race is both a bit too soon and a bit too late. It is too soon after my last race and too late to do a proper job of seeking the support of delegates who will decide in which direction our party should go. The commitments I have to my family and the work I am currently engaged in do not allow me to now go forward," Coleman said.

"At the moment, I am tremendously energized by the work I am currently involved in to create a positive, center right agenda for this country," he added.

Coleman was seen as a potential GOP frontrunner, had he elected to enter the race. But he might have had trouble making it through the MN GOP convention, which typically favors more conservative candidates. A former MN GOP chairman wrote an op-ed earlier this month in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune urging Coleman not to run.

State House Min. Leader Marty Seifert (R), another GOV contender, released a statement on his website praising Coleman's decision. "It is clear that Norm will continue to make great contributions to Minnesota and the country with his new endeavor. I look forward to working with Norm on addressing the challenges facing our great state."

Also reacting to Coleman's decision, state Rep. Tom Emmer added his own statement: "Norm Coleman was an effective member of the U.S. Senate during a very difficult period in our nation and he has earned our respect and gratitude. ... I pledge to meet his challenge today to work for a more civil and respectful political environment."

The MN precinct caucuses, which will kick off the process of selecting candidates, will be held on 2/2.

On the eve of the MA SEN special election, a new poll conducted for the liberal website DailyKos.com shows a dead heat in the race between AG Martha Coakley (D) and state Sen. Scott Brown (R).

The poll, conducted by the independent pollster Research 2000, surveyed 500 regular voters between Jan. 15-17 for a margin of error of +/- 5%. Coakley, Brown and activist Joe Kennedy (L).

General Election Matchup

           All / Dem / GOP / Ind
Brown      48% /  9% / 90% / 65%
Coakley    48  / 89  /  6  / 29
Kennedy     3  /  1  /  3  /  5

A previous Research 2000 poll, conducted last week for another Dem client, showed Coakley leading Brown by 8 points. And Pollster.com's average, before the DailyKos poll is incorporated, shows Brown leading by 10 points.

In the new poll, conducted Fri.-Sun., self IDed partisans are solidly behind their respective standardbearers.

Brown's momentum may be hitting the wall, however, as the Coakley camp and outside groups seek to puncture his image. His unfavorable rating is nearly as high as Coakley's, with 30% of voters, and 54% of Dems, viewing Brown unfavorably.

Coakley maintains an edge in name recognition, with 58% of voters viewing her favorably, to 31% unfavorably. Brown's favorable rating is seven points lower, at 51%.

But Brown, as seen in other public polling, maintains a huge lead among indies, who comprise 42% of respondents. Brown leads those voters, 65-29%, with 5% for Kennedy.

Brown is viewed favorably by 59% of indies, and just 18% view him unfavorably. Coakley's fav/unfav rating among indies is 52/37, reflecting the extent to which the Brown camp has succeeded in portraying her as the establishment candidate amid the current political environment.

Dems have focused on exciting their base into turning out to vote. The party has increasingly tied Coakley to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, and internal polls show excitement among Dem voters on the rise -- aided in part by Sunday's visit from Pres. Obama.

On Monday, Coakley's campaign launched a new ad featuring Obama's visit:

State Sen. Scott Brown (R) lambasted MA AG Martha Coakley for politicizing an event dedicated to the life and legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

"I certainly didn't realize that this was a rally for Martha, and I thought it was inappropriate that she started asking for people's votes when we're trying to remember Martin Luther King, Jr.," Brown told reporters as he was exiting the hall.

After the breakfast, where Coakley sat on the dias with other statewide elected officials while Brown sat at a table in the back of the hall, Coakley overtly asked for votes in tomorrow's election.

"We are in the middle of a very close election," Coakley told the crowd, "and I know that people are frustrated. They're angry. They may be focusing that in many different ways."

She continued to remind voters to direct their anger and frustration not at the current admin., but the previous one.

"Do not forget that they are problems that were not created by, but inherited by, our president, Barack Obama, who came here yesterday to tell us that we had to remember the dream and to work with him to move forward in acting on it," she said.

She invoked King, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) and Martin Luther King III, who was also in attendance at today's event.

"Dr. King and Ted Kennedy dedicated their lives to making America and Massachusetts a much more just society," Coakley said, "and President Obama and Martin Luther King III have taken up that call and standard."

"If you send me to the Senate, I will be guided by those values."

Brown said he would begin his final full day of campaigning after the breakfast.

"We're going to start campaigning in about a half an hour," he said. "I'm going to go home and change and get the truck gassed up and go around the rest of the state and begin working."

Brown laughed off Pres. Obama's line that he and his truck would "take the country backward," saying he "thought it was pretty funny" because "people are having difficulty even buying trucks these days."

And, he said, he did not hear a comment from a heckler at a rally yesterday, when a man yelled he wanted to "shove a curling iron" in an inappropriate place.

"I didn't even hear it," Brown said. "Obviously, that's completely inappropriate, and it's not something that I would ... have any respect for. If I had heard it, I certainly would have said something."

MA GOP comm. dir. Tarah Donoghue said that when Brown was asked if he'd heard the comment, he responded with a "resounding no."

"He was smiling because he was responding to the growing energy of the crowd," Donoghue said.

"'We can do this' is standard stump language for him, and he did not hear the comment," Donoghue said.

BOSTON, MA -- It's a snowy, windy morning in Boston, with two inches already on the ground and more to come. But MA AG Martha Coakley (D) was the picture of confidence as she walked into Boston's Hynes Convention Center this a.m. for the city's annual Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial Breakfast.

"I'm feeling great," Coakley told reporters. "We have incredible momentum, I think, as we've been traveling around. We're on the phone. Volunteers know. Democrats know. We have a race, but we're really confident we're going to make this happen."

In this close race, weather could make all the difference. Bad weather would seem to benefit state Sen. Scott Brown (R), whose supporters still hold an edge over Coakley's in the enthusiasm department.

But that enthusiasm can have an ugly side, too. That side was on display yesterday at a West Springfield rally, where a Brown supporter exhorted the candidate to "shove a curling iron" up Coakley's "butt." The remark was a reference to Coakley's handling during her tenure as Middlesex DA of an '05 sexual abuse case in which a toddler was raped with a hot curling iron. Some have criticized Coakley's handling of the case as too lax.

Asked about the remarks this morning, Coakley said, "I actually hadn't heard that. I don't pay as much attention to Scott Brown's race as he pays to mine. I'm just focused on my voters."

The MLK Breakfast is now underway, and what was intended as a non-political event has taken on a campaign feel.

Coakley's seat is at the dais along with other community leaders and political figures including Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and Boston Mayor Thomas Menino. Brown -- who tells OnCall he bought a ticket the event -- is sitting at one of the 10-person tables toward the back of the hall.

Before the event began, MLK Breakfast Cmte Member Dave Jackson said that Brown had not been invited to sit on the dais as Coakley had, but he would be welcome to attend the event and that organizers would recognize him in the crowd. So far, though, there's been no such shout-out.

As breakfast was being served, Brown sat chatting quietly with those at his table, a lone cameraman trained on him. A few attendees approached Brown to take pictures or shake hands.

Coakley, meanwhile, surrounded by a gaggle of reporters and well-wishers, was busy working the audience, gland-handing in a separate corner of the hall.

In an appearance earlier today, MA state Sen. Scott Brown (R) appears to acknowledge a suggestion from a supporter who suggests an inappropriate location for a curling iron.

As Hotline OnCall reported earlier today, a Brown supporter at a West Springfield rally urged the GOP candidate to "shove a curling iron up [MA AG Martha Coakley's] butt!"

In a video of the appearance obtained by Hotline OnCall, Brown seems to hear the remark and offer a brief smile, before continuing with his stump speech.

Judge for yourself:

AG Martha Coakley's (D) campaign plans to release a new TV ad showcasing her retail politicking with union members and women.

The ad, which the Coakley camp filmed at a Revere, MA, American Legion hall this evening, will feature supporters praising the AG as a champion for families and working-class voters.

"Martha Coakley's got our back," a short-haired woman wearing glasses says in footage filmed for use in the ad. "She cares for our families, she cares for our future and we need to send her to Washington."

"In these difficult times," a man says, "we can trust Martha to fight for us -- and not Wall Street."

"The thing about Martha is she won't back down and she'll never give up," another woman says.

The ad will show Coakley entering an American Legion hall packed with cheering supporters, all of whom were asked to remain behind at after a rally at the hall this evening including MA AFL-CIO Chair Robert Haynes, Rep. Ed Markey (D-07), Revere Mayor Thomas Ambrosino and others.

(The Coakley camp filmed the ad at the conclusion of the event, after reporters were to have been ushered out of the hall.)

The filming of an ad focusing on union members raises the possibility that Coakley's camp is concerned that state Sen. Scott Brown (R) is making inroads with working-class voters.

Further details on the TV spot were not immediately available.

As audience members streamed out of Pres. Obama's rally on behalf of AG Martha Coakley (D) here tonight, the consensus was that the fault for Coakley's now-floundering MA SEN bid lies with one person -- George W. Bush.

"People are upset because there's so many problems," Rosemary Kverek, 70, a retired Charleston schoolteacher said as tonight's rally wrapped up. "But the problems came from the previous administration. So we're blaming poor Obama, who's working 36 hours a day ... to solve these problems that he inherited."

Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), speaking with a gaggle of reporters after the event, said that while state Sen. Scott Brown (R) offers voters a quick fix, in reality, the problems created by "George Bush and his cronies" are not so easily solved.

"If you think there's magic out there and things can be turned around overnight, then you would vote for someone who could promise you that, like Scott Brown," Kennedy said. "If you don't, if you know that it takes eight years for George Bush and his cronies to put our country into this hole ... then you know we have a lot of digging to do, but some work needs to be done and this president's in the process of doing it and we need to get Marcia Coakley to help him to do that."

(Curiously, Kennedy mentioned Coakley repeatedly during his remarks to reporters, each time referring to her as "Marcia," not "Martha.")

More Kennedy: "One thing the Democrats have done wrong? We haven't kept the focus on this disaster on the Republicans who brought it upon us. We've tried too hard to do that right thing, and that's to fix it, as opposed to spend more of our time and energy pointing the finger at who got us [here] in the first place."

Blaming their problems on Bush does carry a risk for Dems, however -- with their sights so firmly focused on the past, Brown's campaign has managed to wrest the "change" mantle from them.

Meanwhile, even as Kennedy took on both Bush and Brown head-on, some attendees were more muted in their criticism of Brown.

"I mean, he is handsome," Christine DiPitro, 61, of Malden, said of Brown.

"He does appeal to the regular guy with his truck, but that's about all."

BOSTON, MA -- Pres. Obama took the stage shortly before 4 pm to stump for AG Martha Coakley (D) in a last-ditch effort to save Dems' 60-vote super majority in the Senate, taking a swipe at her GOP opponent's populist appeal.

"He's driving his truck around the commonwealth and he says that he gets you," Obama said of state Sen. Scott Brown (R).

"Everybody can run slick games," he added. "Forget the truck. Anybody can buy a truck."

Obama touted Coakley's record of standing up for Main Street, not Wall Street, echoing Dem themes of the last several days as they hit Brown for opposing a new fee on banks. Brown, Obama said, "decided to park his truck on Wall Street."

"When the chips are down, when the tough votes come on all the fights that matter to middle-class families all across this commonwealth, who is going to be on your side?"

The crowd cheered some answer that sounded to this reporter's ear like a cross between "Barack!" and "Martha!"

Dems voiced some optimism in the final days as they battle to reclaim momentum that has belonged to Brown. DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan, who has been dispatched to help campaign, said Organizing for America and the Coakley campaign had made 575K voter contacts in on Saturday.

Internal polls show Dem interest in the race growing as well, Sevugan said in an email to Hotline OnCall. The surveys show a 15-point increase in the number of Dems who say they are likely to turn out and vote on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Coakley's camp passes on word that the AG will spend her last day before Election Day in Pittsfield, Framingham and Boston's IBEW Local 103, wrapping up the day at Dorchester's Erie Pub.

At one point, Obama was briefly interrupted by what appeared to be an anti-abortion activist who heckled the POTUS with, "Abortion! Save America!" Security officials led the heckler out of the arena.

A Coakley spokesperson declined to speculate whether the protester was associated with the Brown campaign, but mentioned that at an event earlier today in Hyannis, a protester was arrested for burning Coakley campaign signs.

Before the event, where Coakley and Obama were joined on stage by Vicki Kennedy, the audience sang birthday wishes to FLOTUS Michelle Obama, who turns 46 years old today.

The scores of supporters of MA AG Martha Coakley (D) lining the blocks around Northeastern Univ.'s Solomon Court were turned away by Boston Police after fire marshals declared the venue had reached capacity at about 2 pm today.

But the venue itself is surprisingly small for a event headlined by Pres. Obama -- supporters were turned away after the audience had reached 1.1K, according to Boston fire dept. officials.

Obama is slated to speak at 3:35 pm. Boston Mayor Thomas Menino took the stage shortly before 3 pm, followed by MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D), Rep. Ed Markey (D-07) and Coakley's ex-primary rival, Rep. Michael Capuano (D-08).

Capuano sought to counter state Sen. Scott Brown's (R) criticism that Coakley's campaign has gone too negative.

"This is not about negative this and negative that," Capuano said. "It's about a re-dedication. Reminding ourselves: What is it that we want? What brought you here today?"

"Which one of these candidates can clearly, if not perfectly, share our hopes and dreams?" he continued

"If it's not Martha Coakley, you're not paying attention."

Ex-Ebay CEO Meg Whitman's (R) CA GOV campaign is making the case that ex-Rep. Tom Campbell's (R) switch to the SEN race benefits Whitman in the GOP primary.

An internal poll obtained from a source inside the Whitman campaign shows her ahead of the other candidate still standing, Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R).

The poll, conducted among 500 likely Republican voters statewide Jan. 7-11 with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%, tested the three-way primary before Campbell's switch as well as a head-to-head between Whitman and Poizner.

In the three-way race, Whitman comfortably led the field with 31%, followed by 17% for Campbell and just 5% for Poizner. With Campbell out of the mix, Whitman and Poizner gained about evenly even though Whitman wound up with an even larger share of the vote at 39% to Poizner's 12%. 48% are undecided.

Name recognition in the GOP electorate remains higher for Whitman than Poizner at 79% in the poll to his 62%.

WEST SPRINGFIELD, MA -- State Sen. Scott Brown (R) brought his surging campaign to this western MA town this a.m., rallying a crowd of GOPers more energized than many in attendance could remember.

Standing on a platform in front of the truck he has often touted in his stump speech and campaign ads, Brown was in high spirits as he addressed a crowd of more than 100 supporters. The crowd responded enthusiastically as Brown made his case against AG Martha Coakley (D) -- even interrupting frequently to make Brown's case for him.

"I'll tell you what," Brown said, using a megaphone to address the crowd. "There's negative campaigning, and then there's malicious campaigning."

"She's malicious!" a man in the crowd cried out. "She's a phony!" shouted another. "Shove a curling iron up her butt!" a third man interjected a few moments later.

The campaign has taken a turn for the negative in recent days, a development on which Brown sought to capitalize. He whacked Coakley for going negative against him, even while striving to keep a light-hearted tone in his own campaign. At one point, he told the crowd that he went bowling last night with his wife, his daughter and her boyfriend, and later went to a Chinese restaurant afterward.

"And wouldn't you know," Brown said, "there were seven ads in a row -- seven in a row -- from not only Martha, but from all the special interests ... hammering me and distorting my record and lying."

"The difference is, I actually have a voting record," Brown continued, eliciting cheers.

He urged supporters to volunteer and make calls for his campaign.

"You can continue to fight the good fight, because we have a chance," he said.

Brown continued his assault on Coakley's stance on taxes, health care and nat'l security, warning the crowd that "al Qaeda right now is in our airports, they're in our shopping malls and they're trying to kill us."

Chants of "Go, Scott, go!" followed Brown as he stepped down to shake hands and take photos with supporters.

In a brief interview with OnCall after the rally, Brown renewed his stated opposition to Pres. Obama's proposed bank tax, turning the question back around to Coakley even as Dems have tried to make an issue of Brown's opposition.

"There's not a tax that Martha Coakley doesn't like," Brown said. "When banks are trying to stimuluate the economy and lend money, they're paying back not only the amount they borrowed, they're paying it back with interest."

"So I'm not in favor of the tax," he added. "While I certainly don't agree with a lot of the large payouts to the executives, to have people like this pay another tax in the midst of a recession, it doesn't make any sense."

Brown, who had asked Obama to stay out of the race just a few days ago, reversed course today, when Obama will headline a rally on Coakley's behalf in Boston.

"Anytime a president wants to come to Massachusetts, whether they be Democrat or Republican, I welcome them," he said.

DORCHESTER, MA -- The skies over Boston were still dark this a.m. as MA AG Martha Coakley (D) kicked off her first event of a full day of campaigning, one to be capped off with a visit from Pres. Obama.

Coakley arrived at the Charles Street AME Church in Dorchester shortly after 7 a.m., accompanied by Boston Mayor Thomas Menino (D). The two joined a mostly African-American congregation of about 40 people for a prayer service for victims of the earthquake in Haiti.

"We're feeling very good," Coakley told Hotline OnCall as she entered the church. "We've had a great couple of days on the campaign trail, and we're feeling very energized."

Coakley said she was excited about Obama's visit and said she hoped he would help her turn out Dems for Tuesday's special election.

"I think everyone's looking forward to his visit here," Coakley said. "I hope he's going to tell voters in Massachusetts that they need to get to the polls."

The campaign has taken an ugly turn as it enters is final days, with MA Dems releasing a mailer claiming that state Sen. Scott Brown (R) wants hospitals to "turn away" rape victims, and Brown's camp countering that Coakley is running "the most malicious campaign that's ever been run" in MA. Even the weather seems to have worsened -- the previously clear forecasts now call for two to four inches of snowfall in the Boston area on Election Day.

This a.m., Coakley brushed aside Brown's characterization of her campaign as "malicious".

"I think voters cut through all that," she told OnCall. "I think there's been -- as there always is -- campaign rhetoric, but voters will make a good choice on Tuesday."

If her schedule today is any indication, Coakley is pulling out all the stops in her effort to ensure that Dems go to the polls. She will travel to Brockton to meet with voters later this a.m., then on to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D) home base of Hyannis for a rally with Kennedy's nephew, Joe, at Tommy Doyle's Irish Pub -- the same venue Brown hit on his tour of the Cape two days ago.

From there, it's on to Quincy and then back to Boston for the Northeastern Univ. rally with Pres. Obama. Coakley's campaign has also announced an additional two events for this evening -- a meet-and-greet at the Davis Square T stop at 6 pm, followed by a rally in Revere at 7 pm.

Brown, meanwhile, is on a swing through Western MA today. Stay tuned for more as OnCall joins him on the trail.

Senate Dems may not be experienced in winning special elections, but their House counterparts have done it a lot lately. Now, the DCCC is sending last-minute volunteers into MA on behalf of AG Martha Coakley (D).

The DCCC sent 2 emails to supporters on its email list in states that neighbor MA -- a total of 300K email addresses, according to a DCCC source. The party has also sent about 100 volunteers to the state, including staff from House offices in neighboring states.

And though Coakley spent less time than other Dem candidates trying to tie herself to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's legacy until the last week, other Dems are reminding voters of the man who held the seat for more than 4 decades.

"The latest polls show Democrat Martha Coakley in the lead, but her Republican opponent is right on her heels in a race that represents the critical 60th vote for health insurance reform and the rest of President Obama's agenda," Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) wrote for the DCCC in an email that went to the committee's email list in several states.

Still, the latest polls actually show state Sen. Scott Brown (R) ahead. An American Research Group (R) survey conducted Jan. 12-14 among 600 LVs show Brown leading by a 48%-45% margin. The survey had a margin of error of +/- 4%.

As Coakley's poll numbers have slipped, Dems have turned to increasingly negative attacks over Brown's record. A new mail piece accuses Brown of wanting to turn rape victims away from hospitals -- a charge that Coakley's own website appears to refute.

On Saturday, Brown pushed back hard, calling the mailer "malicious" and accusing Coakley's campaign of being behind it.

Voters know she's their AG, but like VA state Sen. Creigh Deeds, Martha Coakley (D) has been criticized by political observers for failing to lay out her own vision for the future. Like Deeds, Coakley has gone on air with sharp attacks on her GOP rival over his views on Social issues.

Deeds did spend a few resources playing up his background in rural Bath Co., but voters rarely heard Deeds speak.

Coakley is seen in this ad talking about record of service before the canned shot of the family gathering toward the end. Meanwhile, state Sen. Scott Brown (R) does the studio shot too, but also hit the streets.

While Coakley's main positive ad shows her in a well-lit room, Brown's most memorable ad has him connecting with people on the street. Those ads square with larger themes in the race; Coakley has been criticized for essentially disappearing after her primary win, while Brown held 3 times as many public events as Coakley.

Then, there are the pleads from political figures more popular than the candidates themselves. Deeds went to Sen. Mark Warner (D), who held astronomical approval ratings as a governor and is still above 50% as a Senator even in spite of his health care vote, while Vicki Kennedy, the widow of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), has Coakley's back.

With both Dems trailing in the polls the week before the election, they called in Pres. Obama. Obama came to bat for Deeds down state in the late week of October. He will appear at a rally for Coakley on Sunday.

Deeds had to come from behind to win the Dem primary in the last two weeks while Coakley was always the front runner. MA Dems turned out in robust numbers for the Nov. primary, while VA is notorious for very low primary turnouts that hover in the low-to-mid single digits.

Coakley is a better natural speaker than Deeds, actually won her race for AG (Deeds lost the '05 AG race to Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell), is a state-wide office holder and is more openly liberal, while Deeds charted a centrist course.

But don't be fooled by the more liberal state Coakley is running in. While Medford may be a long way from Bath Co., subpar campaigns know no ideological turf.

No matter how you look at it, MA is simply not VA when it comes to politics. But don't tell that to state Sen. Scott Brown (R) and AG Martha Coakley (D), who seem to be mirroring their Old Dominion counterparts in multiple ways.

Coakley and VA state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) are both life-long residents of their states while both Brown and VA Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R) served in their state's House. Each politico has a record of long public service too.

Fluffly stuff aside, take a look at the ads, starting with the GOPers.

Neither McDonnell nor Brown identified themselves with a GOP label or ever mentioned social issues in their ads. Instead, they ran biography videos that displayed sunny optimism and hard workmanship while letting the audiences feel like they know them.

One of Brown's most compelling ads shows him pounding the pavement, being surrounded by supporters, shaking hands, and asking people to support his lower-taxes/control gov't-spending message. Sound familiar? McDonnell did the same thing repeatedly. Like Brown, it's easy to identify with McDonnell.

Brown is challenging Coakley in the blue-friendly turf of Boston while McDonnell competed in -- and won -- parts of Dem-leaning Northern Virginia (including the counties of Prince William, Loudoun and populous Fairfax). McDonnell made frequent mention of his Fairfax roots; his campaign signs in NOVA read "Fairfax's Own" in Fairfax and "NOVA's own" in the rest of the region. And McDonnell challenged Deeds in other traditionally Dem strongholds, as in another spot where he addresses the NAACP.

A highly lauded aspect of McDonnell's campaign was how he could still hold conservative values while relating to moderates in Dem-leaning areas. McDonnell played up his family as much as possible, too. As ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) said during the '08 pres. race, "I'm a conservative, but I'm not angry at anyone about it."

Brown, too, plays up his soft and fuzzy side, complete with the obligatory "Hey, Dad" from his daughter.

When Brown isolates himself, he is taking on Coakley directly for her negative ads, accusing her of not focusing on real issues while still including a positive spin on his own agenda. McDonnell actually ran more negative ads than Deeds, did but voters perceived Deeds as the more negative of the two because he had so few positive ads toward the end of the campaign while McDonnell had stockpiles.

Check back later today for our look at the similarities between Coakley and Deeds.

By Tim Sahd

GOPers are obviously celebrating Rep. Vic Snyder's (D-AR) retirement, but several names circulating as potential replacements will certainly qualify as top-tier recruits, should they enter the race.

A Dem source said LG Bill Halter (D), who is considering a primary bid against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), is a potential candidate for the Snyder seat, and so are Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola (D), state Sen. Shane Broadway (D) and state Senate Pres. Bob Johnson (D) -- who also has considered challenging Lincoln, but from the right. The CD is historically Dem, so the bench here is rather full for Dems. That's something they don't enjoy in many other Southern CDs.

Halter would have run to the left of Lincoln in a primary, so if he runs, he'd be open to the same attacks GOPers hit Snyder with on health care, cap-and-trade and the stimulus. But he'd also bring a big profile and the ability to at least match ex-U.S. Atty Tim Griffin (R) dollar-for-dollar, something Snyder would've had a difficult time doing.

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen issued a statement tonight thanking Snyder for his service, and also shared his optimism for holding the seat. "We are confident that a Democrat who shares Congressman Snyder's commitment to being an independent voice for addressing the economic challenges facing Arkansas' middle class families will be the next Representative from Arkansas' 2nd District," Van Hollen wrote.

It's always easier to hold a seat with an incumbent, but in this case, Dems may be able to play here if they can recruit the right kind of candidate into the race. Snyder looked like a lost cause; with a top-tier recruit, Dems would have a shot at holding the seat.

By Tim Sahd

Vulnerable Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR) announced today he won't run for re-election to his Little Rock-based CD. "I have concluded that these election-year forces are no match for the persuasive and powerful attraction of our three one-year old boys under the leadership of their three-year old brother, and I have decided not to run for re-election," Snyder wrote in a statement tonight.

Snyder faced difficult re-election prospects. The GOP frontrunner, ex-U.S. Atty Tim Griffin (R), has managed to put together two strong fundraising qtrs. and banked $315K by the end of the year. Snyder, meanwhile, doesn't raise money in the off-year, and only had $7K in the bank at the end of '09. He would've spent much of the early part of '10 playing catch-up to Griffin.

Snyder said he'd been considering retirement for some time, but the timing of his announcement is interesting. This a.m., a liberal blog published the results of a SurveyUSA poll showing Snyder trailing Griffin by a huge 56-39% margin.

"This decision has not been an easy one," Snyder wrote. "Two weeks ago my campaign manager came on board, but that first morning I advised him to do nothing to begin the campaign because of my doubts regarding running. The onset of the new year, the time I always begin organizing my campaigns, did nothing to remove these doubts."

GOPers immediately jumped on the news. "Tim Griffin has been running an extraordinary campaign fueled by strong local support that forced a 13-year incumbent into retirement one year after he faced no Republican opposition," said NRCC spokesperson Andy Sere. "Whomever the Democrats nominate as their sacrificial lamb will be facing a formidable candidate in Griffin and running in a state that has proved to be ground-zero for fever-pitch opposition to the Obama-Pelosi agenda."

Restaurateur Scott Wallace (R) and insurance exec. David Meeks (R) are also running, but Griffin has always been a favorite of DC GOPers and is a "Contender" in the NRCC's "On the Radar" program.

The CD has been trending GOP, like AR as a whole, and gave John McCain 54% in '08. Pres. Bush took it with just 51% in '04. Snyder has never taken less than 58% in any of his six re-elections, but GOPers will be favored to take this seat.

With Snyder's retirement, 10 Dems have announced they won't seek re-election in '10, while 14 GOP incumbents have done the same.

House Min. Whip Eric Cantor spent more time on TV than any other potential WH '12 candidate last month, according to a Hotline tally, but others were not far behind.

Cantor spent 1 hour 5 minutes on cable TV in Dec. and an additional 6 minutes on broadcast TV. Sen. John Thune (R-SD), who has raised his profile during the health care debate, was a close second with nearly 44 minutes of cable TV time.

But though he had a good month, Cantor remains more than an hour behind the leader of the pack, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Gingrich has been on TV for more than 3 hours and 42 minutes since Sept. 6, '09, well ahead of Cantor's 2 hours 20 minutes.

The top 10 potential candidates, in order of their total appearance on TV since Sept. '09:

Candidate Total Time Dec. Time

Gingrich      3:42:27      24:57
Cantor        2:20:12    1:12:09
Palin         2:19:00       0:00
Giuliani      2:15:46       6:01
Pawlenty      1:47:58       4:02
Santorum      1:08:56      14:24
Thune         1:07:34      43:49
Barbour       1:03:19       0:00
Pence           38:48       5:25
Romney          33:42      28:35

Among the networks, C-SPAN was the big winner in Dec., scoring long sit-downs with Cantor and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). Fox News Channel finished second, spending 1 hour 15 minutes with potential contenders.

Meanwhile, CNN used up 41 minutes of airtime for possible WH '12 candidates and NBC hosted Gingrich and ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) on "Meet The Press" for a total of 38 minutes.

For our complete rundown, including breakdowns between broadcast and cable TV and a comprehensive list of each candidate's appearances, check out today's edition of The Hotline.

Storm clouds have been forming around AG Martha Coakley's (D) camp in recent days, but at least one factor in the race seems to be breaking in her favor: The weather.

Conditions across the commonwealth will be tranquil on Jan. 19, the date of the special election, with temperatures near the average for this time of year.

"Tuesday is looking really nice," according to Alan Dunham, a meteorologist at the Nat'l Weather Service office in Taunton, MA. The Taunton office covers the entire Bay State, excepting Berkshire Co. along the western border with NY.

Inclement weather can suppress turnout, and that effect could have been magnified by a mid-winter election date and the specter of snow and ice. Climatologically speaking, MA sees its coldest temperatures in mid-Jan., and Jan. is the snowiest month of the year.

The general rule is that weather-suppressed turnout is better for GOPers, while nicer weather usually favors Dems. In that respect, Coakley appears to have dodged a bullet. A mix of sun and clouds is expected on 1/19, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s statewide.

But conditions could be different for the final two days of the campaign -- and for Pres. Obama's Jan. 17 trip to Boston to campaign for Coakley. A coastal storm may develop early in the day on Jan. 17 and head towards the northeast by afternoon or evening. It's not yet certain whether precipitation will fall during the daylight hours on Jan. 17 and what form it could take -- rain or snow. Dunham said it's too early to pinpoint the timing and precipitation type for this storm.

Rain and/or snow will be heaviest overnight before tapering off during the day on 1/18, giving areas of the state receiving accumulating snow less than 24 hours -- on a holiday -- to clear any accumulation from the roads before the polls open the next morning.

VP Biden became the highest-profile Dem heavyweight to attack state Sen. Scott Brown (R) in an email sent to supporters on Friday.

Biden urges supporters to contribute to MA AG Martha Coakley's (D)
SEN campaign while simultaneously taking a swing at her GOP rival, who some polls suggest is leading the race.

"Yesterday, Scott Brown showed his true colors," Biden writes. "Given a perfect opportunity to show where his loyalties lie -- with working families in Massachusetts or with the bankers on Wall Street who helped lead us into the mess we're in -- guess who he chose?"

"Even though the banks received billions of dollars from American taxpayers to prevent the collapse of our financial system, Scott Brown doesn't think it's fair for us to get it back -- when they're paying out billions in bonuses with our money," Biden adds in the email, which went to the Organizing for America mailing list.

Dems are hoping that Brown's opposition to the bank responsibility fee can help Coakley reclaim momentum in the tight race. Brown initially refused to state his position on the fee yesterday, but later released a statement yesterday saying that he is "opposed to higher taxes, especially in the midst of a severe recession."

Biden's message comes amid a stepped up WH effort on Coakley's behalf. Pres. Obama is slated to campaign for her in an event this Sunday.

Full text of Biden's email below the jump.

As the MA SEN race looks to be headed to a photo-finish, several pols and pundits have used a similar, albeit unfortunate metaphor, to describe the prospect of a GOPer taking the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA)'s seat:

Earthquake.

All of the following comments were made over 24 hours after the devastating 7.0 earthquake hit Haiti:

FNC's Sean Hannity: "What a political earthquake, though, that would be" ("Hannity," FNC, 1/14).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), on MA state Sen. Scott Brown (R): "I know if he wins, then, obviously, it will have a seismic effect on American politics" ("On the Record," FNC, 1/13).

Ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, on whether there's a Dem effort to stall a swearing in if Brown wins: "If the earthquake happens and if you have this sudden, stunning, unbelievable result, I think it would be impossible for the Democrats in the Senate, for the president to block the seating of the Republican candidate" "On the Record," FNC, 1/13).

NPR's Juan Williams, on a GOP win: "I know the prospect is boy, that would be something. That would be an earth shaker. Talk about an earthquake. That would be one right here in American politics. No doubt about it" ("Hannity," FNC, 1/13).

The comments offer a contrast to the sensitivities to the term "tsunami" after the late '04 Indian ocean earthquake were still so strong during the '08 pres. primaries that networks abandoned their use of the term "Tsunami Tuesday" to describe the Feb. 5, 2008 primaries.

Dem voters are unenthusiastic about the '10 elections, worrying party strategists who face an excited GOP base.

Just 30% of Dems are extremely or very enthusiastic about the '10 midtersm, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll. That's a drop of 9 points in just 2 months, indicating voters are still upset with their own party. Enthusiasm among registered Dems has dropped from 42% in early Nov. to just 31% now.

Meanwhile, 46% of GOPers say they are enthusiastic about the midterms, the same percentage as a Nov. 1 survey, and enthusiasm is up to 49% among registered GOPers, rising from 43% in Nov.

And, for the first time since '04, Dems have lost their advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Asked which candidate they would prefer to vote for in Nov., RVs said they would choose a GOPer by a 48%-45% margin over the Dem.

Dems have enjoyed a long streak of advantages on the generic ballot. Just before the '06 elections, when the party took control of Congress for the first time in 12 years, Dems had a 20-point advantage on the generic ballot. In '08, Dems held an 8-point edge.

Then again, even GOPers may be in some trouble this year. Just 32% of RVs said they would vote to re-elect an incumbent, while 46% said they would choose a challenger. 66% of voters said a challenger is more likely to bring needed change to government.

54% said a challenger is more likely to represent opinions of people like the respondent, while just 25% said the incumbent would better fit that statement. Challengers also held a 13-point edge when voters were asked to rate honesty and trustworthiness.

Pres. Obama will campaign for MA AG Martha Coakley (D) on Sunday, senior Dem sources tell Hotline OnCall, underscoring the urgency with which Dems view the race.

A source close to the campaign said that Obama will attend an event for Coakley on Sunday afternoon. A senior Dem said the Coakley campaign asked the WH for a campaign visit.

"Martha has said that of course if the president was able to come, we would welcome him," the source said. Meanwhile, Coakley told Hotline OnCall earlier this week she had not asked Obama to campaign with her.

"The president believes that it'll be a productive stop, whether it was announced Tuesday or now," WH press sec. Robert Gibbs told reporters at his briefing today. "We have an invitation from the Coakley campaign and we're going."

Recent polling has shown Coakley losing her lead to, or even trailing, state Sen. Scott Brown (R). Obama's visit, first reported by Politico, is intended to salvage his chances of keeping a 60-seat majority in the Senate.

Both campaigns have launched their closing ads. Coakley's features an endorsement from Vicki Kennedy, the wife of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, and Brown's shows off him retail campaigning around South Boston.

Amid speculation earlier this week of an Obama visit, Brown told the Boston Herald that Obama "should stay away and let Martha and I discuss the issues one on one." Coakley, meanwhile, had told reporters that her campaign had not request a visit from the POTUS, but added that she "would welcome his support."

A Brown spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

This post was updated at 2:04pm.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

UPDATE: All five network Sunday shows will host round-robin interviews with George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts U.S. Agency for Int'l Development administrator Rajiv Shah and Lt. Gen. Ken Keen. The roundtable will feature ex- Bush adviser Karen Hughes, Center for American Progress pres./Obama WH transition co-chair/ex-Clinton WH CoS John Podesta, Washington Post's Bob Woodward and Time's Mark Halperin.

Face the Nation hosts TBA.

This Week hosts Shah and Keen. The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, FNC's Tucker Carlson, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, and Nation's Katrina vanden Heuvel.

Fox News Sunday hosts Shah, Keen and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell. The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, Fortune's Nina Easton, syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Shah, Keen, Dem strategist James Carville, GOP strategist Mary Matalin, and Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

If there were ever a time for a Dem pres. to ride to the rescue and hold last-minute rallies on behalf of an embattled candidate in a deep blue state, this is it. If there were ever a time for Pres. Obama to use his political capital and sheer force of will to drag a candidate across the finish line, this is it.

And yet Obama's involvement in the MA SEN race has not included a visit, or a TV ad. It has consisted of a single web video, emailed to supporters yesterday, endorsing MA AG Martha Coakley (D), and a robo-call launched today.

Coakley has her Sunday schedule open, in case Obama makes the quick trip up to Boston for a rally. But the WH has not committed to an event yet, leaving some Dems scratching their heads.

The political stakes could not be higher. If Coakley wins, Dems preserve their 60-vote majority in the Senate. They can cut off debate on health care and pass a bill that has proven nothing but an albatross since even before it was introduced. If state Sen. Scott Brown (R) wins the race, he has promised to be the 41st vote against cloture, effectively killing Obama's signature initiative as it stands at the brink of completion.

The WH usually weighs its options, deciding whether it is worth expending political capital in an unpredictable special election they could very well lose simply because of lack of interest among their base. But given the national attention the race has garnered, Obama does not appear to have much to lose by casting his lot with Coakley.

A Brown victory will be seen as a huge blow to the WH. It would also signal to Dems in Congress that the party is not safe, even in a state that hasn't sent a GOPer to the House since '94 and hasn't sent a GOPer to the Senate since '72. GOPers eager for a flood of retirements could see their dreams realized as panicked Dems really head for the exits.

Given how much the costs of an actual loss outweigh the costs of a perceived loss, Dem strategists are confused about why the WH has not set an event, even with VP Biden, in the race's crucial final days.

But, in reality, the situation is a lot worse for Dems than it appears. According to strategists familiar with internal polls conducted for Coakley's campaign, the consequences of Obama's visit could produce a net-negative effect on Coakley's campaign.

Obama has a net favorable rating in MA, according to public and private polls. A Suffolk Univ. poll out today shows 55% of MA voters viewing him favorably, while just 35% see him unfavorably. But the intensity of voters who view him unfavorably, or who disapprove of his job performance, is so high that an appearance with Coakley could bring out more GOPers ready to vote for Brown than it could Dems set on their nominee.

"Obama is radioactive in polls," said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign's internal numbers. "Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful. So you just can't take those kinds of chances."

After spending nearly 10 years out of the spotlight, '00 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R-NY) said running for GOV this time around is much different than his last shot at higher office.

"It's enormously helpful to have more than 4 months or 5 months of campaigning. And it's also good not be running against the White House," Lazio said, referring to his '00 bid against Sec/State Hillary Clinton.

Without being in constant "crisis" mode, as he referred to his '00 campaign, Lazio said he does not have to spend a "disproportionate amount" of time fundraising and can actually speak one-on-one with people in areas typically unfriendly to GOPers.

"They need to be able to see you, that you're a known quantity, that you're not going to forget them after the election, particularly in the upstate areas," said Lazio.

Polling late last year showed Lazio running even with Gov. David Paterson (D) but trailing AG Andrew Cuomo (D) by 40 points. He dismissed his gap with Cuomo as being "of minimal meaning before he's even a candidate."

Lazio castigated Cuomo for being "about as politically ambitious as a politician can be" while not taking a stand on competing ethics reform bills in state legislature.

"Cuomo does better in the polls than he would because he's not Paterson and he also has not taken a position on any of these very controversial issues. So, when you're a prosecutor, and I was one myself, all you do is basically announce good news," he said.

Lazio would rather face Paterson, of whom he spoke highly in an interview with The Hotline.

"He's on message and his message is what people, his message of fiscal responsibility, is one that people are buying. Whether that trumps in a Dem primary, I can't tell you, but I think that's one of the reasons why his numbers are coming up in terms of general polls," Lazio said said.

Lazio sees a competitive Dem primary as a sort of perfect storm that, coupled with the unpopularity of the state legislature in Albany, could give him the chance to win an otherwise blue state.

"You've got an incumbent governor with low approval numbers, who's trying fundamentally to do something the legislature does not want to do; there's a complete disconnect between the legislature and Paterson," Lazio said. "You've got Cuomo in the background undermining him through surrogates."

Vicki Kennedy, the widow of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, makes her long-awaited debut on the Dem campaign trail today in a new ad endorsing her husband's would-be successor.

Though Ted Kennedy only faced one tough re-election effort, the race to replace him has turned into a toss-up, and MA AG Martha Coakley (D) appears to need all the help she can get. In the new spot, Vicki Kennedy vouches for Coakley.

"Tuesday's election is to fill the term my husband didn't have a chance to complete. But it's not the Kennedy seat, it's the people's seat. The mother struggling to make ends meet," Kennedy says in the ad. "The father trying to find a job. My husband fought for them, and so does Martha Coakley."

Meanwhile, state Sen. Scott Brown's (R) campaign is up with their own new spot featuring footage of Coakley attending a fundraiser in DC on Tuesday. The grainy image shows Coakley talking to reporters outside Sonoma, a fancy Capitol Hill wine bar.

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) is favored to hold on to his job, but he has some work to do, according to a new survey taken as GOPers tout their chances in the state.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal DailyKos website, also shows GOPers are very likely to take a Dem-held Senate seat, thanks to Gov. John Hoeven (R), who is running for retiring Sen. Byron Dorgan's (D) job.

The poll surveyed 600 LVs between 1/11-13 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Hoeven was tested against radio host Ed Schultz (D), ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp (D) and state Rep. Jasper Schneider (D). Pomeroy faced state Public Service Commis. Kevin Cramer (R) and ret. Navy officer Duane Sand (R).

General Election Matchups

Hoeven      56
Schultz     32

Hoeven      55
Heitkamp    34
Hoeven      56
Schneider   32
Pomeroy     46
Cramer      24
Pomeroy     47
Sand        22

GOPers crowed when Cramer joined the race, believing it gave them a solid chance at beating the 9-term Dem. But Pomeroy has survived good GOP years before, winning in '94 with 52%, in '00 with 53% and in '02 with 52%.

Still, Dems should be nervous that the veteran incumbent polls so low. It doesn't mean Pomeroy is going to lose, but if someone as established as Pomeroy faces a real race this year, not a lot of Dems are going to be safe.

Meanwhile, Hoeven is widely popular, and Dorgan's decision to step down essentially handed GOPers the seat. DC Dems are quietly touting Heitkamp, who lost the GOV race to Hoeven in '00, but no one in the party is optimistic enough to even seriously suggest that someone can knock Hoeven off his pedestal.

Finally, talk about unpopular: ND voters love their incumbents, but they hate both political parties. The Dem Party has a fav/unfav rating of 25%-61%, while ND voters see the GOP in by an ugly 39%-53% margin.

"World News" and "Evening News" led with the earthquake in Haiti. "Nightly News" led with the earthquake in Haiti and hosted Bill Clinton.

Pols and pundits and pols weighed in on the MA SEN race last p.m. on cable.

Ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, on Brown: "If he does win Wednesday morning, late Tuesday night, you're going to be covering this. Everybody is going to be covering this. And by Wednesday morning, it will be obvious to the country that the president has suffered a stunning repudiation."

Gingrich, on an attempt to block a Brown swearing-in: "But I will predict to you, any effort to block the people of Massachusetts from having the senator they elect, will lead to such an explosion across the whole country that it would be ungovernable. ... For them to try, in a dictatorial way, to reject the wishes of the people of Massachusetts, to play games with an elected office, I think would literally lead to such an explosion of anger across the country, that it would threaten the very survival of the Democratic Party as an institution" ("Hannity," "FNC," 1/14).

Dem strategist Joe Trippi, on if Obama should go to MA: "If I were the president or were advising him, I would advise him to go in. I mean, this whole thing is going to be about turnout. And there are a lot more Democrats in the state that are just not as interested. We've got an intensity problem. There's a lot of hype, of heat and intensity on the Republican side. So if I'm Democrats, and I've got the president's ear, I'm urging him to go in, because you turn up the heat on the Democratic side, get the turnout. That's how you win this thing" ("Hannity," FNC, 1/14).

After the jump, more on the MA SEN race, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) defends RNC Chair Michael Steele.

Good Friday morning. How is it we're so ready for a 3-day weekend just 2 full weeks into the year? Just imagine what it will be like this summer.

Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in today's political debate:

STATE SEN. SCOTT BROWN: The latest survey out of MA's hot Senate race show the GOPer leading by 4 points, giving his party hope that they will retake a seat they have not held since the '50s in a state where Dems control every major office. The Suffolk Univ. survey, conducted Monday to Wednesday, shows Brown leading by a 50%-46% margin.

While a win would be huge for the GOP, Dems have proven over several elections last year that they have these special contests down. The party has invested heavily in turnout operations, and SEIU and other labor groups are organizing their own get-out-the-vote operations. The higher the turnout, the better the chance AG Martha Coakley has of regaining the lead.

Dems are having fits over the contest, and WH CoS is placing calls to top MA strategists to gauge whether a visit by Pres. Obama could change the race, AP's Glen Johnson writes. Coakley's schedule is open on Sunday, in hopes that Obama will swoop in and save the day, but the admin's focus on Haiti could make politicking look crass. Keep an eye on the Sunday pool reports.

PRES. OBAMA: As he contemplates a last-minute visit to Boston, Obama faces what could be the end of his major legislative accomplishments, at least for his first term. A Brown win would effectively shut down any legislative efforts that don't have significant GOP involvement, and would leave Dems in a state of panic before they face voters this fall.

But Obama insists that health care and the economy will be positives for Dems, he told his party's House caucus yesterday.
Dem strategists have settled on an effort to refashion the midterms as a contrast between the 2 parties, and sources say they intend to rely heavily on accusations that their GOP rivals want to take the country back to the Bush era.

We had a lot of posts today, and we don't want you to miss it. A round-up of today's hot news:

Today's Starting Lineup, or why MA AG Martha Coakley (D) should start to worry. Meanwhile, Coakley leads by 8 points in a new poll.

Given the chance, 50% of voters say they would "definitely" or "probably" vote for someone other than Pres. Obama in '12.

Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) is going to try that whole retiring thing again. Didn't work for him too well in '08.

Congressional Dems think their party will lose an average of 15 seats this year. GOPers think they're on track to pick up 33 seats.

The RNC has raised a lot more money than it budgeted this year. It also spent a whole bunch more too.

The DCCC launched its list of 26 races to watch. And Dems meeting at the DCCC last night for a major political briefing are worried about their own jobs.

CT AG Richard Blumenthal (D) leads both his potential challengers in the race to replace Sen. Chris Dodd (D) by wide margins.

Thanks to Sarah Palin, her speech to the National Tea Party Convention will be open press.

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) and the Club for Growth don't exactly see eye-to-eye on health care legislation.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) is the big winner today, hauling in $1.86M in his bid for the seat held by retiring Sen. Roland Burris (D). Kirk has raised about $4.8M so far this cycle, and he ended the year with $3.2M in the bank, his campaign said Thursday.

Meanwhile, Clark Co. Commis. chair Rory Reid will report having raised $3.3M through '09, ending the year with $2.6M in the bank, per NV's own Jon Ralston. That's much more than ex-Fed. Judge Brian Sandoval (R) raised, though Reid had more time to pull in the money and Sandoval still leads polls by wide margins in the race against Gov. Jim Gibbons (R).

Ex-IA Gov. Terry Branstad, seeking to return to his old job for a 5th term, pulled in $1.55M in just 5 days after announcing his candidacy, leaving him with $1.36M in the bank, according to a press release obtained by IowaPolitics.com

VA state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) announced Thursday he had raised $293K in his first 2 months as a candidate, leaving him with $259K in the bank as he challenges Rep. Tom Perriello (D).

Bethlehem, PA, Mayor John Callahan (D), one of Dems' top recruits, raised $380K in the 4th quarter and ended the year with $625K in the bank. Callahan is mounting a strong challenge to Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA).

Atty Andy Barr (R) pulled in $118K last quarter, giving him $304K total raised in his race against Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY). Barr did not say how much he had left in the bank.

And though NRSC chair John Cornyn takes pains to say his committee has not endorsed most candidates in contested primaries, his money tells the most evident story of how Cornyn himself feels.

Cornyn's Alamo PAC spent the last several months wading in to several competitive primaries. He gave $10K to ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R), who faces challengers attacking her from both the left and the right; and he handed $10K to KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), who faces a surprisingly strong challenge from ophthalmologist/Rep. Ron Paul son Rand Paul (R).

Cornyn also cut a $5K check to Kirk, who faces several lesser-known candidates challenging him from the right.

SEIU has stepped up its involvement in MA in the waning days of the race, sending hundreds of volunteers and hundreds of thousands of dollars to the state on behalf of AG Martha Coakley (D).

The union, one of the most powerful arrows in the Dem quiver, is spending $685K on TV ads touting Coakley and slamming state Sen. Scott Brown (R), and a spokesperson for SEIU says it will have 300 volunteers on the ground on Tuesday.

The heightened activity has some GOPers on edge, and at least one group is worried SEIU could be taking over for ACORN as a top organizational tool benefiting Dem candidates.

"This whole thing is turnout, and this looks like the place the SEIU-ACORN folks turn on the turnout machine. They did it in Minnesota, successfully," said David Norcross, chair of the Republican National Lawyers Association.

The RNLA will send its own volunteers to MA for Election Day, with plans to monitor polling places to prevent any fraud. The group got a tip that SEIU-sponsored buses would be taking voters to the polls, Norcross said.

"Here's more proof the Republican attack machine has no answers on the issues Massachusetts voters care about -- jobs, healthcare and fixing the mess left by the previous administration," shot back Jon Youngdahl, SEIU's national political director. "Their biggest concern? That people who work hard for a living might turn out and vote."

One source with knowledge of labor-backed turnout operations says a successful turnout drive can be worth 1 or 2 points for a candidate, and that in a low-turnout special election that turns into a tight race, that can make all the difference.

SEIU spokesperson Christy Setzer did not address whether the unions would have buses available to help voters get to the polls, but she confirmed the union will help Dems turn out key voters.

"We are engaging in a variety of activities to bring out the vote -- particularly the base vote -- leading up to the election," Youngdahl added, citing phone-banking, door-to-door visits and outreach to SEIU members in the state.

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) got into the MA SEN race in a big way this week, using the health care vote as a reason to get his supporters interested in financially backing state Sen. Scott Brown (R) over AG Martha Coakley (D).

"I am leading the Republican charge to open health care reform negotiations to public scrutiny and challenging Senate Leader Harry Reid to allow C-SPAN to televise the closed-door negotiations going on between Senate and House Democrats and the White House," Thune wrote in an email to his mailing list.

The cable net has asked permission to broadcast negotiations between House and Senate leaders as they work to reconcile differences between 2 versions of health care. So far, C-SPAN has had no luck.

Thune cites Pres. Obama's promise during the campaign to open more meetings to public scrutiny, and Thune blasts the Dem majority for the health care bill.

"There's only one additional thing I know of we can do: Help deny the Democrats their 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. One week from today Massachusetts will elect a new Senator in a special election. Like me, Republican State Senator Scott Brown vehemently opposes the Democrats' health care legislation and will vote to stop it," Thune writes in his appeal to get his contributors to pony up.

Thune joined a number of Republicans in contributing $5K to Brown's campaign through his PAC.