Dems Wane As Conservatives Rise
By Reid Wilson
The percentage of those calling themselves Dems has fallen to below 50% for the first time since '05, while the number of people who consider themselves conservatives rises.
According to Gallup surveys, 49% of Americans identified themselves as Dems, down from 51.5% in '08. The 2.5-point drop over a year, though, does not tell the whole story; the number of voters who identified with Dems fell a total of 4.5 points between March and Dec.
Meanwhile, the ranks of self-identified GOPers swelled over the same period last year, rising from 38.7% to 42.2%. In short, Dems went from a 13-point advantage in March to just a 5-point edge in Dec.
The number of independent voters who said they leaned toward the GOP rose from 11% of the entire electorate in the 1st quarter of last year to 15.2% in the 4th quarter. Dem-leaning independents shrank from 16.4% to 14.2% over the same time period.
Meanwhile, as the GOP increasingly identifies itself with conservatives over moderates, the number of conservatives is on the rise, the Gallup polls found. Today, 40% of Americans consider themselves conservative, while 36% say they are moderates and 21% call themselves liberal.
The rise of conservatives -- those who consider themselves such grew from 37% in '08 -- has been fueled, again, by voters who do not associate themselves with either party. In '08, 30% of independents called themselves conservative; now, that number is 35%.
Over the past decade, though, it has been self-identified GOPers who have contributed most to the conservative movement. Now, 71% of GOPers say they are conservative, 9 points higher than the number of GOPers who said they were conservative in '00, '01 and '02.
Dems have also grown increasingly liberal. At the turn of the century, 29% of self-identified Dems said they were liberal. Now, that number stands at 38%. 39% of Dems say they are moderates, and 21% call themselves conservative, a gap that has narrowed as fewer Dems identify as moderates.
Counter to conventional wisdom, the number of independent voters has actually declined over the past decade. As partisanship rankles DC, the American public is increasingly identifying as members of one party or another. In the '90s, 36.8% of Americans called themselves independent, while 34.8% over the past decade have said the same.
The G.O.P. isn't the only home available to conservatives.
In some states the conservative Prohibition Party is on the ballot.
For information about today's Prohibition Party go to www.prohibitionists.org