IL Primary Preview
The Land of Lincoln kicks off the primary season on Tuesday when voters head to the polls to pick nominees in contested SEN, GOV and House races across the country. IL also has the distinction of kicking off Hotline OnCall's Primary Preview, our cheat sheet for upcoming contests.
Check back before all 50 state primaries and we'll give you the hints and tips on every competitive race around the country. But let's start with IL's Groundhog Day contests:
GOV RACE: When ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) was impeached, IL newspapers and good-government types hailed Gov. Pat Quinn's (D) ascension to the top spot. Quinn is not a part of the Chicago machine, giving him reformer credentials to change Springfield. But reformers don't make a lot of friends, and that's why recent polls have shown Compt. Dan Hynes (D) catching up, and quickly.
A recent survey from Market Shares Corp., conducted for the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV, shows Quinn leading Hynes by a narrow 44%-40% margin, way down from the 26-point gap Quinn enjoyed in early Dec. Both campaigns have delved into the mud in recent weeks in what has proven a quietly nasty race. Hynes is attacking Quinn with an ad featuring former Mayor Harold Washington saying Quinn is unsuited to lead, while Quinn has an ad up bashing Hynes for mishandling the Burr Oak Cemetery, where employees dug up corpses and resold their burial plots.
The GOP primary is no more clear. Ex-IL GOP chair Andy McKenna (R) holds a slim 1-point lead over ex-AG Jim Ryan (R), 19%-18%. State Sen. Kirk Dillard (R) clocks in at 14%, while state Sen. Bill Brady (R) has 9%. The winner of both primaries will have ample time to restock their warchests. McKenna, at the moment, is the darling of conservatives, though he has spent time attacking all 3 of his rivals equally, not just perceived frontrunner Ryan, in order to make a hole for himself.
The Chicago Tribune has endorsed McKenna, but refused to endorse a Dem in the primary. The Chicago Sun Times is backing Dillard in the GOP primary and Quinn on the Dem side.
SEN RACE: Sen. Roland Burris (D) will not seek a full term, giving GOPers a chance to take Pres. Obama's old Senate seat -- a victory that, if it happens, would be a huge coup. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) looks likely to win that primary; the Tribune poll had him leading his nearest competitor, real estate developer Patrick Hughes, by 39 points. Hughes has run to the right of Kirk, but he failed to catch on with the GOP base.
Dems face a closer contest, although the clear front-runner is IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D). His opponents, ex-Chicago Urban League Pres. Cheryle Jackson (D) and ex-Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D), are portraying Giannoulias as an insider with questionable ties to Blagojevich and convicted felon Tony Rezko, ties the GOP will exploit in a general election. The WH was concerned enough over Giannoulias's baggage to try and talk AG Lisa Madigan (D) into the race.
But Giannoulias's name recognition has given him a clear edge, and he's raised more than either of his foes. Meanwhile, he hasn't made any major slipups yet. Jackson and Hoffman, it appears, will need a miracle to pull off the upset. Watch for Giannoulias to run close to his rivals in Chicago, but to run up big margins downstate.
The Tribune and the Sun-Times are both backing Hoffman and Kirk.
IL-10: GOPers have long held this seat by running moderate GOPers, including Kirk and ex-Rep. Jon Porter (R). Now that Kirk is running for SEN, state Rep. Beth Coulson (R) has grabbed that moderate mantle (her opponents call her "liberal"), and is running with the endorsements of Porter and ex-Gov. Jim Edgar (R). But she faces two conservative businessmen -- Robert Dold (R) and Dick Green (R), both of whom are spending heavily on TV to stress their business credentials. Coulson started out as a frontrunner, but Green and Dold have bought themselves lots of name ID. This is anybody's race, but Coulson will certainly benefit by Dold and Green splitting the conservative vote.
Speaking of name ID, '06/'08 nominee Dan Seals (D) has tons of it from his two previous high-profile races. But state Rep. Julie Hamos (D) has been a prolific fundraiser, and should be able to make up for whatever she was lacking in that area. Seals has plenty of experience fighting off primary challenges, and some Dem activists in the CD believe he has earned the right to win the nod with his two unsuccessful runs against Kirk. Hamos is running strong, and, like the GOP primary, this is anyone's race.
IL-11: Iraq vet Adam Kinzinger (R) impressed plenty of GOP operatives early in the contest, and as a result was one of the first GOPers to land on the NRCC's "Young Guns" list. In order to dent his "frontrunner" status, his lesser known opponents have attempted to hit him for not attending several taped debates, and have also attacked him for his establishment endorsements.
But Kinzinger's profile makes it hard for opponents to label him as an insider, and Liberty First PAC also endorsed him this week, which should help him to garner more "outsider" cred. Kinzinger is the favorite here, as his opponents don't appear to have drawn much blood, and if he does win, he'd provide the GOP with a credible, but uphill, challenge to Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D).
IL-14: GOPers who thought ex-Speaker son/atty Ethan Hastert (R) could walk straight into a race against Rep. Bill Foster (D) badly underestimated some of the anti-Hastert sentiment in the CD. State Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) is Hastert's remaining opposition, and he appears to have lined up much of the anti-Hastert crowd, including '08 candidate/ex-state Sen. Chris Lauzen (R).
But Hultgren may have badly misfired late last week when he sent out a mailer claiming that Hastert supported human trafficking. He was forced to send out a robocall to apologize for throwing mud.
Going into election day, Hastert should have the advantage; a mid-Dec. poll conducted for his campaign showed him with a strong lead over Hultgren. But either could give Rep. Bill Foster (D) a race, though, in this GOP-leaning CD.
The 10th is not "anyone's race". If you look more closely at this race you'll learn that Hamos' money comes from outside the district (EMILY's List, Schakowsky donors), while Seals' contributions are from district voters. He has won the support of most district activist and donors, has an army of volunteers for a strong ground game, and his views reflect our moderate electorate. Hamos' voting record does not play well here, nor do her identity politics, misleading emails, and lack of support for campaign finance reform (although she also misleads about that). Seals has been far ahead in the polls, and he is far ahead in canvassing results as well. Don't go by local politician and big newspaper endorsements - all the local Dem organizations that made endorsements endorsed Seals.
Seals has more than name recognition, he has approval ratings in the 70's. Hamos' approval here in the tenth is plummeting as she weaves and bobs her way around her record and tries to distance herself from Springfield, even as she uses her connections there to further her political advancement.
The activists here know that she is not electable, nor is she a good fit for the district. She has alienated even the most progressive in the district with her support for the escalation in Afghanistan. In forums she has been caught unawares when asked questions, and spends most of her time now trying to rectify past mistakes. She just wanted an open seat, because she thought it would be an easy win. She's such a poor campaigner, she can't stay awake during the evening campaign forums and yet she expects us to believe that she has the energy to fight for us?
In the short drive from her home on the outskirts of Evanston to Arlington Heights, she somehow transformed into a 'fiscal conservative' and now claims to sit somewhere between Schakowsky and Bean in ideology. We don't need another lying politician as congressman in this district- we already have one now. This is not 'anyone's race' even if the media would like to think so- I suppose it creates more buzz.
McKenna is NOT the "darling of conservatives" by any means.
In fact, I'd say most Illinois conservatives despise him because they hold him responsible for the string of electoral losses the GOP suffered during his tenure as state party chairman -- including the loss of ALL the statewide offices and the GOP's failure to defeat Blagojevich in 2006 even though Blago's ethical problems were well known by then.
Most of McKenna's support comes from disaffected independents or others who know him only from his blitz of TV commercials and don't know his past history with the GOP.
Last year during the 2008 Presidential Campaign, Vice President Biden gave a speech where he said, “What do you do you talk about when you’ve got nothing to say? You talk about the other guy.” It looks like the Seals supports have, after two unsuccessful campaigns, nothing more to say. So fine, talk about Hamos. I’m loving it and I’m voting for her.
Hultgren did not apologize for his attack he apologized for getting caught. This is the exact kind of Springfield double talk we don't need any more of in Washington. Ethan Hastert is the only one who can go toe to toe with Foster in the fall and hold Foster accountable for signing on the the failed stimulus policies of the Administration. Hultgren voted to bring the same failed policies to Illinois.
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