Monday's Starting Lineup

Good Monday morning. Generally, it's best not to fumble on every play if one plans to win a game, a lesson Vikings fans now know all too well.

Here's Monday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who are making a difference this election cycle:

ED GILLESPIE AND TOM REYNOLDS: The former RNC chair and the former NRCC chair, respectively, are set to head GOP efforts to take back state legislative seats in '10 when they take over the Republican State Leadership Committee. The RSLC, and its Dem counterpart, the DLCC, are perhaps the least-known of any of the major party-run political committees, and yet they have a big impact on what Congress will look like for a decade to come.

Gillespie will chair the RSLC with Reynolds as vice chair, they will announce later today. And, they say, targeting key state legislative seats in just a dozen chambers across the nation could give the GOP outsized influence in those states' redistricting process. That could result in a 25-30 seat pickup in Congress for the GOP, over the long term. And they're going to be well-funded, too; after raising $22M in the '08 cycle, Gillespie and Reynolds are aiming to pick up $40M this time around.

Dems aren't going to be caught flat-footed by the effort. The DLCC has been working on its own redistricting plan since mid-decade, and it too has designs on some of the most narrowly divided state legislatures in the country. An ongoing storyline of the '10 elections will be the battle to replace literally dozens of retiring governors, because of their role in redistricting. But don't overlook the underground contest for state legislatures, who have just as much -- if not more -- influence over the process as chief executives.

REP. MARION BERRY: When the 7-term AR Dem announces he will retire today, he will break 2 barriers Dems never wanted to cross: He becomes the first member to say he will step down after Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) victory last week, and he becomes the first member to step down after saying he would run for Congress again.

GOPers have been waiting for the crush of retirements they are sure will come, while Dems have prevented such a wave. Indeed, Berry becomes just the 6th House Dem to retire without seeking higher office (though seats held by 4 members who are seeking other offices are competitive, too). Dems can survive a trickle, but a flood may be fatal.

Meanwhile, how many members should Dems be worried about losing to retirement now that one committed to seeking re-election has pulled the plug? GOPers have made a conscious effort to push veteran members toward the exits, and even though many have said they will seek an additional term, Berry's departure may inspire the NRCC to go after those members all over again.

56% OF AMERICANS: It's no secret that voter angst and Dem troubles stem from an unemployment rate that hovers around 10%. The economy and jobs are key issues that voters will use to decide their votes in Nov. In fact, their votes may be distilled as simply as one key opinion: Do they believe the economic stimulus plan has worked?

According to a new CNN poll, the answer, at the moment, is no. Just 42% say they support the stimulus bill, passed Feb. 10 of last year, while 56% oppose the bill. That's down from 54% support in March and 60% support just after the bill went through.

Dems largely backed the bill, with a number of defectors. GOPers opposed the measure almost unanimously. The only 3 who voted for it were Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME), along with Sen. Arlen Specter, who is now a Dem. So it's all on Dems' shoulders, and they have a simple argument to make: We did something about the economy, and it's beginning to work. Still, progress may be too slow for many voters, and that remains the prime driver behind Dem troubles this year.