NY SEN: Lucky 13
One day before her first anniversary in the Senate, Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) leads '06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) by 13 points in a new poll of Dem primary LVs.
The poll was conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal blog DailyKos.com (the blog's founder and publisher opposes Ford's candidacy). R2K surveyed 600 Dem primary LVs from Jan. 18 to Jan. 20. The poll -- which tests Gillibrand, Ford and '06 candidate Jonathan Tasini -- carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.
SEN Primary Election Matchup
Gillibrand 41% Ford 27 Tasini 3
GOV Primary Election Matchup
Cuomo 63% Paterson 19
Only 48% of Dem primary voters view Gillibrand favorably, while 26% view her unfavorably. Fully 28% of Dem primary voters have no opinion of Gillibrand.
While nearly half of primary voters have no opinion of Ford, he does not suffer from the same kind of unfavorability as the appointee; Ford's fav/unfav rating stands at 40%/13%.
Other polls conducted earlier this month, including surveys by Marist and Siena colleges, have shown larger leads for Gillibrand. The Marist poll (1/13-14) gave Gillibrand a 43-24% lead, while the Siena poll (1/10-14) showed Gillibrand with a 41-17% advantage.
But the fact that Gillibrand hovers well below 50% in primary matchups in all three polls should buoy Ford, who's engaged in a massive effort to introduce himself to NY voters with TV interviews, local newspaper op-eds and personal appearances -- something Gillibrand has arguably failed to do during her year in the Senate. Gillibrand captures 50% of the vote against Ford in her native Upstate, but she earns only 39% in NYC and 36% in the suburbs around the Big Apple.
Meanwhile in the Kos poll, the man who appointed Gillibrand, Gov. David Paterson (D), trails badly in his potential primary race against AG Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo is reportedly preparing to enter the race over the next few months.