Welch Still Running Against Gerlach
Wealthy businessman Steve Welch (R) said today he won't drop out of the race against Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA), forcing the incumbent into a potentially costly, and damaging, primary.
GOPers were excited when Gerlach dropped his longshot GOV bid earlier this month to run for re-election to his swing suburban Philly CD. But they certainly didn't bargain on Welch -- and his $650K war chest -- staying in the contest.
In fact, most of the other serious contenders have dropped out of the race; some, begrudgingly so. Most expected Welch to drop his bid, but he has decided to stay in. "If you were us, why would you stop?" Welch told PoliticsPA today. "We're clearly gaining support."
Welch also tried to put a MA SEN-like spin on the race. "What [Sen.-elect Scott] Brown showed [is] it's not anti-Democratic year, it's not an anti-Republican year, it's clearly an anti-incumbent year," he said.
GOPers are expecting a recruiting boon to materialize after their shocking MA SEN victory, and several candidates have popped up since Brown's Jan. 19 win. The problem, though, is that the favorable environment is attracting candidates, like Welch, to run in places where the GOP is already has a satisfactory candidate -- in this case, an incumbent.
And a bruising primary here could be damaging to the GOP's chances of holding the seat. Sure, Gerlach's a battle-tested incumbent, having fought four contested general election challenges in a row. But a primary from his right -- which Welch will almost surely run, as he's already signed the Club for Growth's "repeal it" pledge regarding health care reform -- will force Gerlach to move to the right as well, potentially damaging his moderate profile in this suburban CD.
Gerlach should still hold the advantage in a primary, but he'll also face a strong Dem nominee in a CD where he's never won more than 52%. The national environment will be much better for GOPers this year, but this is a fight Gerlach, and nat'l GOPers, could not afford to have.
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