Why Obama Must, And Shouldn't, Go To MA
If there were ever a time for a Dem pres. to ride to the rescue and hold last-minute rallies on behalf of an embattled candidate in a deep blue state, this is it. If there were ever a time for Pres. Obama to use his political capital and sheer force of will to drag a candidate across the finish line, this is it.
And yet Obama's involvement in the MA SEN race has not included a visit, or a TV ad. It has consisted of a single web video, emailed to supporters yesterday, endorsing MA AG Martha Coakley (D), and a robo-call launched today.
Coakley has her Sunday schedule open, in case Obama makes the quick trip up to Boston for a rally. But the WH has not committed to an event yet, leaving some Dems scratching their heads.
The political stakes could not be higher. If Coakley wins, Dems preserve their 60-vote majority in the Senate. They can cut off debate on health care and pass a bill that has proven nothing but an albatross since even before it was introduced. If state Sen. Scott Brown (R) wins the race, he has promised to be the 41st vote against cloture, effectively killing Obama's signature initiative as it stands at the brink of completion.
The WH usually weighs its options, deciding whether it is worth expending political capital in an unpredictable special election they could very well lose simply because of lack of interest among their base. But given the national attention the race has garnered, Obama does not appear to have much to lose by casting his lot with Coakley.
A Brown victory will be seen as a huge blow to the WH. It would also signal to Dems in Congress that the party is not safe, even in a state that hasn't sent a GOPer to the House since '94 and hasn't sent a GOPer to the Senate since '72. GOPers eager for a flood of retirements could see their dreams realized as panicked Dems really head for the exits.
Given how much the costs of an actual loss outweigh the costs of a perceived loss, Dem strategists are confused about why the WH has not set an event, even with VP Biden, in the race's crucial final days.
But, in reality, the situation is a lot worse for Dems than it appears. According to strategists familiar with internal polls conducted for Coakley's campaign, the consequences of Obama's visit could produce a net-negative effect on Coakley's campaign.
Obama has a net favorable rating in MA, according to public and private polls. A Suffolk Univ. poll out today shows 55% of MA voters viewing him favorably, while just 35% see him unfavorably. But the intensity of voters who view him unfavorably, or who disapprove of his job performance, is so high that an appearance with Coakley could bring out more GOPers ready to vote for Brown than it could Dems set on their nominee.
"Obama is radioactive in polls," said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign's internal numbers. "Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful. So you just can't take those kinds of chances."
There are other considerations too. Obama has moved quickly to address the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Haiti, and combined with the WH's stated focus on creating jobs to turn around the economy, he risks the appearance of putting politics at the fore at an inopportune time.
But other Dems disagree, and they worry about both the 60-seat majority in the Senate and the message Obama will send to House members.
At a meeting with the House Dem Caucus yesterday, Obama urged the party to stick with him on health care and the economy. He told House members he wants the Nov. elections to be about the accomplishments Dems have achieved during the first year of his admin. By not going to MA, Obama will send those members a contradictory, and terribly damaging, message.
If Obama stays away, said another top Dem strategist, "you will see members race for the door because they will not have confidence that he is there for them."
Obama's appearance would also send a powerful message to the party's leaders. At a critical moment during the '08 primaries, Kennedy stood with Obama at American Univ. to give his highly-coveted endorsement to the young insurgent from IL. Now, Obama has to show Dems he has done everything he can to keep Kennedy's seat in Dem hands.
Sources say it is unlikely that Obama would show up on Monday, the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Coakley's schedule remains open for Sunday, and though some Dems are beginning to wonder whether it is too late for Obama to have an impact, others say the ramifications of a loss are simply too big to risk leaving the most popular Dem in a very Dem state on the sidelines.
I think Haiti is the deciding factor. If you are the President, now is not the time for politics. His heart would not be in it and his mind (rightly so) would be elsewhere.
Obama is going to have to live with less than 60 votes in the Senate 11 months from now anyway.
Might as well allow the pivot to the center begin now.
This administration's actions (and inactions) are almost always weighed, calculated, sent through the ringer, hung out to dry, and then put into action.
My guess is a team of advisors assessed this situation and decided that it was in Coakley's best interest for Obama to keep his distance. And that's a pretty telling sign that things are crumbling for them. They can't even send out the president (who is supposed to be wildly popular) to a state with heavy support for Democrats, for fear it will bolster the GOP to surge forward and elect Brown.
It's too close to tell who will win the MA race, but regardless, Democrats across the board are in trouble. This race just brought it to the forefront for the entire country to see.
Pivot to the center? How much more centrist can Obama get? This is Mitt Romney's health care plan on a national scale.
RomneyCare is not a centrist program.
Forget Haiti. There is going to be a 10.0 quake here in Massachusett(e)s on Tuesday the 19th!
Obama is an empty suit and always will be. If Nikita Baumann thinks Obama is a centrist then Baumann must think Marxists are right down the middle. Good ole Uncle Joe, eh? Now that people can see what Dems really are like, voters are awakening to the fact that *all* Dems are Socialists of one stripe or another-- and that's Coakley's real problem.
I live in MA. If Obama is "radioactive" here, it's over for him and his health care plan--no matter who wins here Tuesday.
I'm voting for Scott Brown and I hope Obama comes here, as 99% of us have made up our minds already anyway. Obama's visit will just make it even more of a one-sided victory for Brown. Don't you get it liberals?? Brown is running on being the vote that kills the bill, in Mass. and he is winning!!! Does that tell you anything about how unpopular you are? Remember all of your arrogance from last year, how you've dismissed and refused to listen to the people who elect you to office? Can you hear us now???
Why is everyone forgetting the Maine harpies. Should Scott win, one of them will step into the breach and be the 60th vote.
Good point, erp. A Brown win takes the pressure off Snowe/Collins to act like Republicans.
I think Democrats will start heading for the door if Brown wins, so the Mainers won't make a difference.
It figures Obama would stick his nose in this eventually. Everyone needs to send what they can and support Scott Brown now. Obamacare is dead on arrival if we pull this off (probably is anyway), and they know it. It seems fitting that the first Revolution started in Massachusetts with a gunshot, and the second American Revolution will start in the election booth next Tuesday. Scott Brown has reminded everyone how to run for office again.
Go Scott!
The beginning of the end of this Socialistic Wh and Congress.
I heard Obama's coming on Sunday. It was announced a few hours ago on local talk radio. Bill Clinton (UN Envoy to Haiti) was here today for a fund-raiser. It seems politics won out and the people of Haiti don't matter to Obama and Clinton and Coakley and the other liberals. The attitude of the Democrat Party seems to be "Poor Black people in trouble? Who cares?"
"Why is everyone forgetting the Maine harpies. Should Scott win, one of them will step into the breach and be the 60th vote."
Brown runs on being the vote to block Obamacare and wins the people's seat (formerly held by Ted Kennedy) in one of the bluest states in the country (makes NJ look like Texas) and you think Collins or Snowe as Republicans (yes, in name only) would jump over the line at that point? No one is that suicidal.
who cares whose seat it use to belong to. this is
the here and now and now i am sitting in kentucky
praying brown wins. look at our basketball program down here hell it was dead in the water.
it takes the right person to turn it around. brown can turn it around for the united states.
the kennedy's can go to freaking russia and live
the like socialism so much. the rest of us we like freedom.
I just hope Massachusett(es) voters value Liberty as highly as Kentucky voters value basketball.
Haiti is political. obama is trying to come across as caring. There is no reason obama can't go to Mass. for an appearance. It's not like he's personally directing the Haiti operations, I know this because the man is unable to run anything bigger than a demonstration at an apartment complex.
He and coakley know that an obama visit would be a big negative for her.
Obama's approval rating in Mass is in the mid to high 50's so I'm not seeing how a visit from him would be bad, nor am I seeing this Senate race as a referendum on him. And as if every Republican in Mass - all 12% of them - isn't already motivated to vote on Tuesday.
As for Haiti, would any President of any party have acted any differently? You Limbaugh clones should be ashamed of yourselves. 50,000 people have died there. Have some sympathy and stop looking at things through a political lens for 10 seconds. Be a decent human being.
One year you''re the Messiah with folks fainting and falling
over themselves to be near you. The next, you're radioactive and candidates are wearing HazMat suits in photo ops.
What's The One to do?
OTB
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You bigots should have come out full force to vote for McCain so that you could have turned our country into the 4th Reich even quicker. Where were you losers last fall? Watching football and drinking lots of beer? Wasting your time worshipping one of the many imaginary men in the sky you call God? The real "God" does not want to be associated with you sado-masochistic, selfish, elitist dolts anyway. You do know this right?
America will get what it deserves. If you really think that some inbred, Anglo surnamed, big business butt boy is going to be your savior, or even represent you then you deserve to suffer. You gave the Queen of England's cousin G.W. (that's right they're related) 8 years to sell us and the rest of the world out for his and his elitist friends gains, and Obama can't even get a term? How dense can a populace be?
You racists need to go back to England or wherever in Europe or Asia you came from. If you cause our country to stagnate in the 1950's you will be held accountable. The reckoning will not be pleasant. You will be ostracized and disenfranchised.
Do you really think that any of you could get the jobs that are worth having? Do you think that after 20 years of shipping our manufacturing and factory base to other countries, that your business degrees, or more appropriately your high school diplomas, GEDs or non-technological or science training will get you a job?
You are idiots and deserve the sh-t you're going to get. You will show us good, selfless folks, huh?! HAHAHAHA, f--kin' Neofascist cretins!
Thank you Massachusetts!!! Thank you. Let the bell ring throughout Washington. "Washington can you hear us now". November 2010 is coming. Adios.
Isirio
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