February 2010

A new poll conducted for Rep. Bobby Bright's (D-AL) campaign shows that while he may sit in a very vulnerable CD, he starts out in strong shape for re-election.

The survey, conducted by Anzalone-Liszt (D), shows Bright leading Montgomery Councilor Martha Roby (R), AL school board member Stephanie Bell (R) and businessman Rick Barber (R) handily. The survey was conducted 2/8-11, among 500 LVs; It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was first posted in the Montgomery Advertiser.

General Election Matchups
Bright    54%        Bright    55%
Roby      30         Bell      29

Bright    58%
Barber    26

Roby was introduced last week as one of just 10 candidates nationwide to reach the top of the NRCC's "Young Guns" program, proving just how much GOPers think of her chances in this GOP-heavy CD (John McCain took 61% here in '08).

But since winning the seat in '08, Bright has proved a tough target for GOPers. He's a frequent critic of Dem policies, and has voted against all of the major pieces of the Dem legislative agenda (cap-and-trade, health care and the stimulus). Still, GOPers believe he's vulnerable for one vote he did make for the leadership: his vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker.

This race will certainly close as we draw closer to the election, but if Bright's survey is correct, he starts off with a strong early lead.

Rep. John Linder (R-GA) will retire at the end of this term, according to local media reports, finishing an 18-year career notable for a rough stint as chair of the NRCC.

Linder, who represents a solidly GOP district on the northeastern outskirts of Atlanta, has served in public office since winning a seat in the GA House in '74. After winning his House seat in '92 by narrow 51%-49% margin, he never faced a serious challenge again.

A longtime ally of ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, Linder took over the NRCC in during the '98 cycle, when Gingrich was speaker. But the public sided with Bill Clinton after the GOP Congress impeached him, and GOPers lost 5 sets. Shortly after the election, Gingrich resgned, and Linder lost the NRCC chairmanship to then-Rep. Tom Davis.

Linder is a hero of the anti-tax crowd, though, and his FairTax proposal was at the center of ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee's (R) WH'08 campaign platform.

GOPers should have little trouble keeping Linder's seat, based around Gwinnett Co. The 7th district gave Pres. Obama just 39% of the vote in '08.

Linder becomes the 20th member of the House GOP Conference to say he will not run for another term. 6 GOPers are running for Senate, 6 more for other offices in their home states and 8 -- including Linder -- have decided to retire rather than seek another 2 year term. So far, 15 Dems have said they will retire, and another safe seat once held by Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL) remains open following his resignation.

Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) will announce today that he will not run for Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) seat, according to Dem sources.

Hill, who was in Afghanistan when Bayh made his decision to step down, told reporters as recently as this week that he was still deciding whether he would enter the SEN race. But on Saturday, he ruled out the possibility.

"My focus has been, and will remain, on fulfilling my job as the congressman from Southern Indiana and continuing to address the most pressing issues our nation and great state face, like deficit reduction, health care reform, energy independence and entitlement spending," Hill said in a statement. "That said, I will not seek the nomination for the United States Senate, and will continue my efforts to be re-elected to another term representing the Ninth District of Indiana."

"While I agree with [Bayh] that the partisanship in Washington is alarming, to reference my athletic past -- I opt to stay in the game and continue to serve as an independent voice for my Southern Indiana constituents," Hill added.

Hill's decision now clears the way for Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), as Hill was seen by observers as the highest profile potential Dem challenger to Ellsworth. Even with Hill out of the race, Ellsworth is not the only candidate left in the running, though indications are that he is the front-runner.

Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott (D), who is also pursuing the seat, said this week he is considering the race partly for symbolic purposes. As well, national Dems have begun to coalesce around Ellsworth. On Wednesday, DSCC chair Bob Menendez voiced his strong support for Ellsworth.

IN Dems will convene some time after May 4, the date of the primary, to officially decide who their candidate will be.

Wharton Co. GOP chair Debra Medina (R) is up with her closing argument ad, claiming she offers a "refreshing new choice" over 2 career politicians.

And like ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA), she's making animal analogies about her constituents. In the famous, or rather infamous, Demon Sheep ad, Fiorina compares opponent/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell to a murderous quadruped. Now, Medina compares TX voters to a hamster.

Which makes the more effective comparison? You be the judge:

Pres. Obama will include a top labor leader on a commission aimed at reforming fiscal responsibility, giving GOPers another chance to attack a panel they have opposed from the start.

SEIU pres. Andy Stern is one of 6 members tasked with studying ways to reform the nation's fiscal health, the WH said today. Stern's union plays a pivotal role in funding Dem campaigns, a factor that has some GOPers crying foul.

Appointing Stern "sends a clear message that the White House is not serious about htis commission," said Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), a member of the House Budget Committee. "It's irresponsible."

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), ranking GOPer on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, plans to pen a letter expressing his concerns with Stern's appointment, a spokesperson told Hotline OnCall today.

Issa considers SEIU "part of the ACORN political machine," spokesperson Frederick Hill said, pointing to a committee report released last week that enumerates links between the union and the embattled community action group. "This is their man on the fiscal commission."

Given SEIU's close ties to Dems -- the union spent $60M on behalf of Dem campaigns in '08 and brag about winning 17 of 19 states on Obama's behalf, according to Stern himself -- McHenry said the appointment means more for Dems' electoral chances than it does for hopes of solving the nation's debt crisis.

"It makes sense for Obama's election efforts and funding for his election, but not about truly getting our deficit under control," McHenry said. "This is more of an electoral insurance policy than a deficit reduction plan."

Later today, the RNC will send out a research document attacking Stern as overly partisan.

Stern himself sounded vagueling political notes in accepting the post.

"We have an administration that understands that the path from this crisis to long term economic health doesn't lead backwards toward the failed policies of the past," Stern said in a press release. "A vision that is grounded, first and foremost, in the acknowledgment that the foundation of a strong economy is the creation of good jobs, with decent wages, and a vibrant middle class."

Obama also named 3 other members of the committee. Honeywell CEO Dave Cote, a GOPer, and Ann Fudge, the former chair and CEO of Young & Rubicam Brands, will serve on the commission alongside ex-CBO head/ex-Fed vice chair Alice Rivlin, now at the Brookings Institute. Ex-Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY) and ex-WH CoS Erskine Bowles will chair the 18-member panel.

Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Max Baucus (D-MT) and Kent Conrad (D-ND) will serve, while Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Min. Leader John Boehner and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell have yet to name their appointees; they each have 3 seats to fill.

The panel has until Dec. 1 to come up with ways to balance the budget by FY '15. Any agreement they reach must be ratified by 14 of the 18 commissioners.

Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will not seek re-election, he announced in an afternoon presser in Albany.

"It has become increasingly clear to me in the last few days that I cannot run for office and manage the state as well," Paterson told reporters. He said he is bending to political reality, as polls show he would be trounced by his likely Dem primary rival. He thanked those who covered his campaign while hitting reporters who spread "unsubstantiated rumors."

Paterson is under fire for his role in a domestic abuse case involving his aide, David Johnson. Stories from the New York Times became progressively worse with each publication.

The first installment focused on Johnson's past involvement with assault charges and drug use; the second focused on Paterson being distant from his job; and the third revealed that State Police and Paterson himself improperly involved themselves in the case of Johnson's ex-girlfriend. Paterson said today he welcomes any investigation into his conduct.

Paterson said he would not resign, citing the 308 days he has left in office. He "will serve every one of them fighting for the people of New York," he said at the presser.

During a brief question-and-answer session with reporters following his speech, Paterson said he "offered" his "assistance" to AG Andrew Cuomo (D), "should he become a candidate in the future." Paterson said yesterday that he wants to see a Democrat elected in the fall. Cuomo would start out as the heavy favorite against '00 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R).

Paterson highlighted his accomplishments during his brief tenure, saying he tried to improve the quality of life for NYers, reduced the deficit by $33B, helped level the "playing field" for minority and women-owned businesses and toughened penalties for drug dealers.

"I hope history will remember that I did what was right," said Paterson before closing on his now-aborted campaign slogan: "And (I) put the people first."

In a statement released just after Paterson's presser, a spokesperson for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) said she believed Paterson made the correct call. Paterson "has done the right thing by ceasing his campaign and putting the interests of New Yorkers first."

Lazio, who had defended Paterson against the salacious rumors in hopes of keeping the weaker Dem in the race, called his decision a "sad chapter" in NY history.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has lost the endorsement of a key leader of his own party, and a behind-the-scenes feud is emerging that could put McCain at odds with GOP activists in his home state.

McCain and the AZ House delegation have agreed to divert money for the party's get-out-the-vote efforts away from the AZ GOP, sources tell Hotline OnCall. The decision comes after a contentious meeting between the McCain camp and top state party officials, according to sources on both sides of the debate.

The decision highlights a contentious relationship between the state's DC delegation and local party leaders back home, a relationship that often works at cross purposes. For years, those close to McCain have sought to oust party chair Randy Pullen, who has a following among the conservative grassroots.

The latest controversy, which has been quietly simmering for months, comes as party leaders prepare for the Nov. midterms. In AZ, the stakes are particularly high; Gov. Jan Brewer (R) faces re-election and a competitive primary, and the GOP hopes to contest 3 Dem-held House seats.

But with so much money expected to flow through AZ, McCain's team, led by deputy manager Mike Hellon, himself a former AZ GOP chair, has lost confidence in party leadership, and they don't trust Pullen to spend party funds wisely. Those who oppose Pullen accuse him of misspending state party money.

Pullen, on the other hand, believed Hellon and the McCain team wanted too much power and were trying to take control away from the elected party leadership, and that McCain's advisors were continuing a long-running effort to try and force him from office.

After months of preparations, McCain's campaign sat down with Pullen and other top party leaders in AZ for a final session to go over budget plans. McCain's camp wanted total control, according to those who side with Pullen, going so far as to ask for the state party's federal tax ID number in order to gain access to its bank account. Hellon told Pullen he could hand over control or "leave," according to a source in the room.

"It wasn't a request, it was a demand," said Rob Haney, chair of the Maricopa Co. GOP and a Pullen backer who was briefed on the meeting. "They've been trying to get Randy Paullen out of office ever since he was elected."

Pullen refused Hellon's demand and said he wanted control over some staffing and consultant decisions. When McCain's team told him he could not have such control, Pullen, AZ GOP executive director Brett Mecum and RNC member Bruce Ash walked out.

Hellon disputes that version of events. He says Pullen approached the delegation to ask for help raising money for the financially ailing AZ GOP, and for $35K a month from the Victory committee -- the account that handles GOTV efforts -- to cover operating expenses. Both sides agree Pullen wanted more control over some hiring decisions than Hellon intended to surrender.

"There is no Republican in the state of Arizona who needs the Victory program less than John McCain. He's got a well-funded campaign, and we've got a campaign plan," Hellon said.

After discussions broke down, the McCain team held private discussions with RNC executive director Ken McKay and chief counsel Reince Priebus about diverting the money away from the AZ GOP, though McKay and Priebus denied they were on a conference call through an RNC spokesperson.

McCain's campaign now plans to funnel money through the Yuma Co. GOP, according to sources. Yuma's party is run by Phil Townsend, a long-time McCain ally.

"This was a group decision to make sure that the folks that were actually raising the money -- the delegation -- had the ability to make sure that it was spent in a proper manner and not used to pay off debt that Randy had mismanaged," said one source close to AZ's members of Congress.

Though McCain, if he wins the GOP primary, would be a shoo-in for re-election, the national party will spend money in AZ. GOPers will target Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick, Harry Mitchell and Gabby Giffords, 3 Dems all elected over the last 4 years. Gov. Jan Brewer (R) also faces voters, and though she has a strong challenger in the GOP primary, the seat will be competitive no matter who faces the likely Dem nominee, AG Terry Goddard, in Nov.

An RNC spokesperson said all funding decisions would be made in conjunction with party leaders. Townsend did not return calls seeking comment.

The tension highlights McCain's nervousness about his own re-election bid. Though Dems will not field a strong candidate if McCain is the GOP nominee, he has to get past ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) first. Hayworth is a favorite of the most conservative set, and he won standing ovations for his speech at the state GOP convention last month.

Why is Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) the 160th most liberal House member in the 2009 vote ratings rather than No. 1? Why is Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) rated 140th among conservatives, rather than first?

The simple reason is that Dennis Kucinich voted with conservatives more often than 159 of his colleagues and Ron Paul voted with liberals more often than 139 of his.

National Journal's vote ratings are based on how a member voted, not why a member voted the way he or she did. Kucinich, for example, voted with conservatives against the health care reform legislation the House passed on November 6. He often parted ways with a majority of other House liberals, and the ratings reflect that.

Similarly, Paul voted opposite most conservatives on a variety of matters, most notably related to foreign policy, such as when he voted with many liberals to require the Pentagon to develop an exit strategy from Afghanistan.

When maverick liberals stand on principle and vote against others on the Left because they don't think a bill is liberal enough, or when maverick conservatives buck the Right because a bill includes too many compromises with moderates, the vote ratings system sees only the vote, not the reasons behind it.

Check out more surprises within our vote rankings, and take a look at the most liberal and most conservative members.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and WH health czar Nancy-Ann DeParle. The roundtable features House Min. Whip Eric Cantor, Nat'l Urban League pres./CEO Mark Morial, BBC's Katty Kay and National Journal's Ron Brownstein.

Face the Nation hosts House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Politico's Jim VandeHei.

This Week hosts Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Washington Post's George Will, ABC's Sam Donaldson, New York Times' Paul Krugman and ABC's Cokie Roberts.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. The panel features Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, GOP strategist Liz Cheney and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Pelosi and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Sure, he hasn't resigned like ex-NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D). And he hasn't abandoned his re-election bid like CO Gov. Bill Ritter (D). But NV Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) has had just about the worst first term in memory, thanks to a very public divorce, copious text messages and rumors about his personal life.

Early polls have shown Gibbons in bad shape, but a new survey conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Gibbons isn't done yet. The Mason-Dixon poll surveyed 625 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. An oversample of 300 GOP voters had a margin of error of +/- 6%.

Gibbons was tested against ex-Fed. Judge Brian Sandoval (R) and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R). In a general election, Gibbons and Sandoval were matched up against Clark Co. Council chair Rory Reid (D).

Primary Election Matchup
Sandoval        37 (-2 from last, 1/7)
Gibbons         30 (+7)
Montandon        9 (+2)

General Election Matchups
Reid            42 (-1)   Sandoval        51 (-2)
Gibbons         38 (+2)   Reid            29 (-2)

Gibbons still faces a mountain if he's going to overcome his personal struggles. His favorable ratings are a horrendous 17% versus 51% who see him unfavorably. Those who still have not made up their mind, pollster Brad Coker told the R-J, will vote against the incumbent.

But Gibbons is facing an opponent he can defeat: The state legislature. An ongoing special session, complete with intra-party feuding and cross-party accusations of the worst kind, is underway as legislators try to solve a big budget gap.

GOPers are unwilling to try to force Gibbons from the race; they believe Sandoval will do the job for them. And despite Gibbons' miserable performance during his first term, Sandoval's early big lead means the GOP is favored to keep the seat in Nov.

National Journal reporters Brian Friel and Rich Cohen have spent weeks pouring over our annual Vote Rankings, and the numbers offer a few surprises. Here, Friel and Cohen offer some takes on some overlooked aspects of Congress:

Sen. Russ Feingold: How is one of the most progressive members of Congress -- the ideological, if not direct, heir to William Proxmire (Sen. Herb Kohl holds Proxmire's seat) -- ranked as more conservative than the average senator? Feingold scores a more conservative rating than Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR).

Friel points to Feingold's votes with fiscal hawks, especially on the omnibus appropriations bill and on an amendment to the health care bill he said hadn't been offset. Feingold also opposes gun control, and 5 votes with conservatives moved his ratings to the right. He will occasionally vote against Dems because their position is not liberal enough, leading to votes against TARP, against Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner and against increasing IMF funding.

Sen. Bernie Sanders: Like Feingold, his rating is more conservative than one might think -- he's sandwiched between Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Bill Nelson (D-FL), both noted centrists. And like Feingold, Sanders' rating doesn't square with his reputation as the only self-proclaimed socialist in Congress (he was elected to 4 terms as mayor of Burlington as a socialist).

And like Feingold, Sanders is pro-gun. Though he isn't the fiscal hawk that Feingold is, Friel says he votes against some bills and nominations that aren't liberal enough in his mind, like TARP, IMF funding and Geithner.

Sens. Evan Bayh and Richard Lugar: They're both centrists, but they come from different parties -- and they have exactly the same ratings. Bayh is the most conservative Dem in the Senate, while Lugar is the second-most liberal GOPer after Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Lugar votes with Dems on foreign policy and on most of Obama's nominees, while Bayh takes issue with Dem stands on conservatives and fiscal and economic issues.

Sen. John McCain: He has never been a darling of the conservative activist class in AZ, but now he's voting with them much more. McCain is the 21st-most conservative senator, much farther to the right than the 36 rank he won in '08 and the 46 rank he won in '06 (McCain missed more than half the scored votes in '07, while he ran for the WH). McCain began his career in Congress among the conservative ranks, but drifted toward the center during George W. Bush's admin,

McCain isn't the only one changing his stripes as an election approaches. Sens. Lincoln and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) have each seen their liberal ratings plummet this year, down almost 15 points from their average rating in the first 4 years of their terms. Lincoln is now one of the most endangered Dems in the Senate, while Boxer faces what could be a tough challenge from a trio of GOPers.

NY Gov. David Paterson (D) will not seek re-election this year, according to news reports this morning, a decision that comes in the wake of miserable poll numbers and questions surrounding his involvement in a domestic abuse case.

Paterson has begun telling those close to him he will not run for the office he has held for just over 2 years. He took the top job when Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) resigned in disgrace.

Polls showed Paterson trailed AG Andrew Cuomo (D), who was widely expected to jump in the race next month regardless of Paterson's plans. Paterson's personal troubles and legislative gridlock in Albany had made his re-election bid look like a long shot from the beginning.

After weeks of rumors about a bombshell New York Times story set to drop, a piece out this week revealed Paterson had spoken with a woman who had accused a top aide of assault. The woman said the state police had pressured her to drop a suit against the aide, and that Paterson called her before a court date. The woman missed the court date, and the suit was dismissed.

Throughout the Empire State, the article brought calls for Paterson to step aside. The New York Daily News and the New York Post both called for Paterson to step down, while the Syracuse Post-Standard stopped just short of doing so. Reps. Steve Israel and Dan Maffei had called on Paterson to end his bid. Rep. Nita Lowey (D) said Paterson should resign if the allegations are true.

As first reported by TVNewser 2/25 a.m., "20/20" co-anchor Elizabeth Vargas is guest anchoring "This Week" on Sunday, Feb. 28th, marking Vargas' first time in the "This Week" anchor seat. According to ABC News publicist Emily Lenzner, Vargas is part of the rotation of anchors and correspondents who will host the show until a permanent anchor is chosen.

ABC is talking with several people about the position, and will make an announcement when the selection has been made.

According to an ABC press release, Vargas' turn in the anchor seat will feature Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in her first interview since the 2/25 bipartisan health care summit, and an exclusive interview with Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) on health care and the Senate vote on the jobs bill.

The 10 Most Liberal Senate Dems   Most Conservative Senate GOPers
1. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)           1. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
1. Roland Burris (D-IL)           2. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
1. Ben Cardin (D-MD)              3. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
1. Jack Reed (D-RI)               4. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
1. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)      5. Jim Risch (R-ID)
6. John Kerry (D-MA)              6. John Thune (R-SD)
6. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)        7. John Ensign (R-NV)
8. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)        8. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
9. Chris Dodd (D-CT)              9. Richard Burr (R-NC)
9. Dick Durbin (D-IL)             10. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)

The 10 Most Liberal House Dems    Most Conservative House GOPers
1. Rush Holt (D-NJ)               1. Trent Franks (R-AZ)
1. Gwen Moore (D-WI)              1. Doug Lamborn (R-CO)
1. John Olver (D-MA)              1. Randy Neugebaurer (R-TX)
1. Linda Sanchez (D-CA)           1. Pete Olson (R-TX)
1. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL)          1. John Shadegg (R-AZ)
1. Louise Slaughter (D-NY)        1. Mac Thornberry (R-TX)
1. Mel Watt (D-NC)                7. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN)
1. Henry Waxman (D-CA)            8. Mike Pence (R-IN)
9. Kathy Castor (D-FL)            9. Steve King (R-IA)
10. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL)      9. Tom McClintock (R-CA)

The 10 In The Middle              In The Middle Of The House
(Most liberal to Most conserv.)   (Most liberal to Most conserv.)

46. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)       213. Henry Cuellar (D-TX)
47. Robert Byrd (D-WV)            214. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL)
48. Bob Casey (D-PA)              215. John Adler (D-NJ)
49. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)          216. Bill Foster (D-IL)
50. Mark Pryor (D-AR)             217. Michael McMahon (D-NY)
51. Byron Dorgan (D-ND)           218. Michael Arcuri (D-NY)
52. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)        219. John Tanner (D-TN)
53. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)          220. Scott Murphy (D-NY)
54. Jim Webb (D-VA)               221. Tim Holden (D-PA)
55. Russ Feingold (D-WI)          222. Zack Space (D-OH)

Most Liberal House Delegations    Most Conservative Delegations
1. MA                             1. ID
2. HI                             2. KY
3. VT                             3. SC
4. CT                             4. TX
5. RI                             5. GA

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the health care summit.

Talk of the summit dominated TV last night.

WH sr. adviser David Axelrod made the CNN rounds 2/25 p.m.

Axelrod, on whether the summit was "just political theater," or "something substantive": "I think anytime Republicans and Democrats sit down in Washington and have a substantive discussion on a serious issue, that's progress rather than just shooting lines across on cable television, trying to score political points. There was a little of that in this meeting. But I also thought there were some substantive exchanges. And one thing that came across loud and clear is that we have a big problem in health care in this country and with health insurance, that it's getting worse and not better, and that we need to do something about it."

Axelrod, on whether the WH is "demanding" GOPers "only come forward with amendments to the comprehensive bill" but that there will be "no starting over": "Starting over, in my mind, is a code for delay and obstruction. We've had a lengthy debate. And one thing should be clear today, as both Republicans and Democrats have given this an awful lot of thought. All the ideas are out there. There's not going to be an epiphany some time in the next month or two or three. And what we don't want to do is get into a stalling game with a mind towards stopping any action because someone believes that they can score political points by keeping us from moving forward on a serious problem."

More Axelrod: "But to the extent people want to cooperate and share ideas, we've embraced many, including the idea of a pool for small businesses and people who don't have insurance to buy insurance at a competitive price, where they have choice and competition. That's something we both agree on, we want to move forward on. Let's focus on the fact that there's many, many areas of agreement and let's get something done" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/25).

After the jump, more from Axelrod and others on the summit.

'00 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) asked AG Andrew Cuomo and the New York Times to disclose whether Cuomo's camp fed any information to the Times in the run-up to 3 consecutive articles that cast Gov. David Paterson in a negative light.

"(The Times) can clearly say he was not involved in all of this," said Lazio this morning on WOR 710's "The John Gambling Show." "If that was the case, I would take the Times at their word."

Lazio said the string of stories about Paterson amounted to "another sad week for New York citizens." He agreed that there should be an investigation into whether the State Police and governor himself asked a woman to drop her charges against Paterson aide David Johnson after he allegedly beat her last Halloween. However, Lazio said that Cuomo should not investigate the case if he had anything to do with the Times articles that were "all intended to undermine David Paterson" while "having the potential value of helping Andrew Cuomo."

If that is the case, Lazio said, "then it seems to me that he's totally disqualified to investigate. You've got to have somebody that's independent." When asked who should lead such an investigation, Lazio said he could not name a particular person but would ideally consider a retired judge.

Polls show Lazio has a fighting chance against Paterson, the embattled incumbent who took over after Eliot Spitzer resigned in disgrace. The same polls show Cuomo easily beating Lazio in general election trial heats.

Lazio said New York has "got the second governor in a row that's on the ropes here, and it's scandal after scandal. The state capital is totally dysfunctional." He cast himself as someone who has a "fresh set of eyes" and added "I'm looking at this as a 4-year job and then I want to get out."

That conflicts slightly with what he told Hotline On Call in a past interview when he said that, though he wants to only serve for four years, he would not rule out serving a second term because that would hurt his bargaining power with the state legislature.

Regarding the culture in Albany, Lazio ended the interview by saying, "It's so bad for the public, it's very difficult to budget, to create proper policy ... if you have this kind of turmoil."

Good Friday morning. Don't bother emailing your reporter buddies today. We're all still trying to dig out our inboxes after the deluge of fact checks and re-checks that went along with yesterday's health care summit.

In a special edition of Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup today, we take a look at National Journal's annual vote rankings, which hit newsstands today. Here's a peek at the extremes, and the middle, in an increasingly partisan Congress:

THE LIBERALS: They were the most excited when Pres. Obama came to power, and they have been among the most disappointed by Obama's first year in office. But as Dem centrists who represent more moderate districts find themselves in electoral trouble, liberals look set to win more influence within the caucus.

The most liberal members in the Senate include Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Roland Burris (D-IL), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Jack Reed (D-RI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), all tied for first place. In the House, 8 members share the distinction -- Reps. Rush Holt (D-NJ), Gwen Moore (D-WI), John Olver (D-MA), Linda Sanchez (D-CA), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), (D-NY), Mel Watt (D-NC) and Henry Waxman (D-CA) are tied for the top spot.

For the most part, GOPers won't be able to cast their rivals as the most liberal in Congress -- with one exception. Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), who faces a tough rematch this year, has a composite liberal score of 83.3 (out of 100), making her the 60th-most liberal member of the House. Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Barbara Boxer are the 2 most liberal Dems running for re-election in the upper chamber.

THE CONSERVATIVES: When Dems lose seats, GOPers bent as much on changing their party as on changing DC could be the big winners. After purging moderates, the most conservative are getting more conservative and the middle is fading, according to this year's vote rankings. The country remains a center-right nation, the GOPers love to argue, but at what point does a more conservative GOP lead to an abandonment of the "center" part of that statement?

Unlike Dems, GOPers get to fete a clear winner in the most-conservative sweepstakes: This year, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) takes the prize. He's closely followed by Sens. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Jim Bunning (R-KY) and Tom Coburn (R-OK). In the House, Reps. Trent Franks (R-AZ), Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Randy Neugebauer (R-TX), Pete Olson (R-TX), John Shadegg (R-AZ) and Mac Thornberry (R-TX) share the prize.

House Dems not only have to deal with a challenging political enviro, they must now also deal with the aesthetics of having the chair of the powerful Ways and Means being accused of a violation by the ethics cmte.

According to the AP, the panel ruled that Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) knowingly accepted Caribbean trips from a corporation that lobbied Congress, which is against the chamber's rules.

Rangel, though, defended his actions. "I don't want to be critical of the committee but common sense dictates that members of Congress should not be held responsible for what could be the wrongdoing or mistakes or errors of staff unless there's reason to believe that member knew or should have known, and there is nothing in the record to indicate the latter," Rangel said.

The AP reported that the cmte decided against formal charges such as a censure.

House GOPers were quick to tie Rangel's bad news to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Dems in general. "Once promised to be the 'most ethical congress in history,' the Democratic majority now has a serious ethics scandal on its hands thanks in-part to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi," NRCC spokesperson Ken Spain wrote in a statement tonight.

GOPers have long called for Rangel to temporarily step down from his post at Ways and Means while the ethics cmte finishes its investigations into his finances, which are still ongoing. But Rangel has kept his position, even after GOPers forced an Oct. 2009 House floor vote on whether he should keep his chair. Rangel survived on a party-line vote.

As Dems are trying to refocus on jobs and health care, the last thing they need is a protracted debate with GOPers over Rangel. But it looks like they'll be having that debate, again.

CA SEN candidates were embroiled today in a back-and-forth that began as an attack on ex-Rep. Tom Campbell's (R) record on Israel, but ended up focusing on ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) mgr. Marty Wilson allegedly referring to Campbell as an "anti-Semite."

Wilson denies making the comment, but the Campbell camp insists the comment is proof that the Fiorina camp's demeanor should be seriously questioned.

According to a Los Angeles Times article published today, ex-CA Sec/State Bruce McPherson called Wilson to tell him he planned to endorse Campbell. Wilson allegedly called Campbell an "anti-Semite." McPherson said in the article that he knows Campbell is "a strong supporter of the state of Israel."

In the article, Wilson denied making the comment about Campbell, and he reiterated that denial in a press call today. "I never said that about Tom Campbell, nor do I believe that about Tom Campbell," Wilson said today. The Campbell camp "chose to make these allegations about what I said in an effort to obscure the fact that he has a terrible record on Israel."

To back up his claim about Campbell's record, Wilson pointed to 2 amendments that Campbell proposed in '97 and '99 while serving in Congress to cut foreign economic aid to Israel. He also pointed to Campbell's connections to Sami Al-Arian, who pleaded guilty in '06 to conspiring to help a terrorist organization and who donated $1K to Campbell's '00 SEN camp. Campbell also reportedly wrote a letter to the Univ. of South FL protesting its decision to fire Al-Arian over comments the professor made and visited Al-Arian's brother in jail.

Campbell's votes to reduce aid to Israel and the connections to Al-Arian were reported in the Times article, but Wilson today also pointed to other individuals with terrorist organization connections who donated to Campbell in past elections. When it came to specifically calling Campbell sympathetic to terrorists, however, Wilson backed off.

"I'm saying that Tom Campbell has a record that is decidedly anti-Israel and has some very questionable associations," he said. "The voters of California will decide if he is sympathetic to terrorists."

The Campbell camp, however, tried to keep the focus on Wilson's supposed "anti-Semite" remark. "The attacks against Tom Campbell from his opponents have sunk to unforeseen depths -- going from bizarre to now, grotesque," Campbell spokesperson James Fisfis said in a statement today.

IL Gov. Pat Quinn (D) holds double-digit leads against both GOPers locked in a recount battle for their party's nod, according to a new poll conducted for the liberal blog Daily Kos.

The poll, conducted Feb. 22-24 by Research 2000, surveyed 600 likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. Quinn was tested against state Sens. Bill Brady (R) and Kirk Dillard (R).

General Election Matchups

Quinn    47%                  Quinn    46%
Brady    32                   Dillard  35

While votes are still being counted (and re-counted) in the Feb. 2 GOP primary, both camps say that Brady currently holds a lead in excess of 200 votes. It is likely that Dillard will concede after the state Board of Elections certifies the results on Mar. 5. Dillard said earlier this month that if Brady's lead is above 100 votes, he will forgo a recount.

In the poll, Quinn is viewed favorably by just 37% of respondents, with 41% having an unfavorable impression of the man who took over following the removal of scandal-plagued Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). But Brady and Dillard are also unpopular. Brady's fav/unfav rating stands at 29/41, while Dillard scores only marginally better at 31/37.

In facing Brady, Quinn may have caught a break. Brady campaigned mostly downstate in the primary, and got less than 8.5% of the GOP vote in every Chicago collar county. The Downstater is virtually unknown in the vote-rich suburbs and has never had to contend for independent and crossover Dem votes. Dillard was widely viewed as the moderate GOPer in the primary, and campaigned as the only GOPer capable of beating Quinn.

IL Dems will be sure to highlight Brady's conservative voting record, and Quinn's allies in the IL Legislature will do everything they can to force Brady to take politically-awkward votes. For example, Brady yesterday had to back off of his proposal allowing veterinarians to use carbon monoxide chambers to euthanize more than one cat or dog at a time, which is a Quinn attack ad waiting to happen.

Meanwhile, Brady's campaign will focus on Quinn's budget proposal to raise the income tax to fill the state budget deficit. Brady has proposed a 10% budget cut for all state agencies.

Both Democrats and Republicans voice broad satisfaction as members of Congress, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders poll. An overwhelming 83 percent of Democrats and 84 percent of Republicans responded that they are either very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with their job. In their additional comments, lawmakers called it the "best job I've ever had" and referred to "the privilege to serve every day" despite the frustrations. The responses run counter to the well-publicized retirement announcement of Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., who cited the problems of getting things done and concluded, "There are better ways to serve my fellow citizens, my beloved state and our nation than continued service in Congress."

Among the small share of members of Congress who are dissatisfied with their job, the Democrats' chief focus was the lack of legislative action. "At times I've been very satisfied, like at the beginning of the year when we were actually getting things done. Today, we're really at the real bottom of things," one of them replied. A Republican Insider responded, "Congress, these days, is an embarrassment. If you want to be proud of where you work, this ain't it."

Also in this week's poll, the Congressional Insiders rated the likelihood that major legislation will be enacted in four major policy areas this year. Democrats were most optimistic about health care reform, with a 7.1 average expectation on a scale of 0 to 10. Next in line was financial regulation at 6.5, followed by No Child Left Behind at 5.0 and energy at 3.7. Republicans had lower expectations for each of the four issues: health care reform at 3.0; financial regulation at 5.0; No Child Left Behind at 3.7, and energy at 2.0.

For complete results and comments from the Congressional Insiders on both questions, click here.

WA state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R) is casting herself as an independent as she seeks one of the more centrist districts in the country.

"Quite frankly, the Republicans let me down, too," she said in a roundtable with reporters in DC today. "I was a staffer here when we had control of the House, the Senate and the White House," referring to her time as a senior legislative aide for Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), for whom she handled health care issues. "And you know the across state lines bill? Awesome bill. Tremendous. We didn't pass it when we had control of all 3. We had the authority to do it, and it was not high enough on our radar screen to make it happen."

"There are a lot of things that I think Republicans drop the ball on, and I'm hopeful, as things come closer to a balance this year, that we'll put our money where our mouth is when it comes to health care or energy policy," she added.

Gesturing out into the larger RNC headquarters, where she met reporters, "I'm not sure where we're going yet when it comes to this side." Indeed, she said the book of talking points she's been given by DC GOPers is not something she's planning on using much.

Herrera, 31, is a favorite of the NRCC in the race to replace retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA). She considers herself a commonsense conservative, but the word she uses most is "independent." In fact, her Web site is stamped with the three words, "Independent. Hardworking. Effective."

She agrees with the bulk of the GOP that the stimulus was the wrong thing to do, but of her ideology, she said, "My perspectives were shaped by my region."

Although Herrera sees her outlook as anti-establishment, not anti-Dem, she didn't bash DC (Before becoming a staffer, Herrera interned at the WH office of political affairs during George W. Bush's '04 campaign). She touted several legislative accomplishments made at the state level in her first few years as a state rep., including passing a bill for business tax relief and protecting a transportation project.

"All of that was able to happen in my first session. I think it was because of my time here in DC, understanding the legislative process, having the experience, having moved pieces of legislation at the federal level, I was able to hit the ground running and use that to reach out to voters in my district, and they said, 'Sure, we're not afraid of a young person, or a woman, or someone who is a minority,'" she said.

Herrera will face ex-Vets Affairs Dep Asst. Sec. David Castillo (R) and accountant David Hedrick (R) in the GOP primary. But she has raised money at a much faster clip since getting in the race, and national GOPers believe she would be the strongest candidate in Nov.

Her husband, Daniel Beutler, was on his way to law school this August but changed his plans when Herrera decided to run for Congress.

"My husband and I rent," she said. "We both drive used cars. We're not your typical Republican conservative."

She grew up in the southern WA district and joked about losing votes in the part of the district that houses Washington State University - Vancouver, because she graduated from the University of Washington.

"This is an awesome year to be a new face," she said, explaining that her likely Democratic opponent, ex-state Rep./ex-Gov. Gardner Cos Denny Heck, has been part of the state establishment for 30 years. "I'm excited about the contrast."

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who toyed with running for the WH in '96 and seriously engaged the idea of running in '08, but ultimately did not, said today, "'12 is different."

In an interview with National Journal reporters and editors this morning, Gingrich said he and his wife Callista were "trying to organize our activities to be in a position to make a decision [about running for president] in February or March [of '11]."

Gingrich also said that his political and public policy advocacy group, American Solutions, is in the process of filing papers with the FEC for his new political action committee. And Gingrich said that wants to be active for GOP candidates in the '10 midterm elections. "I'll spend a fair amount of time campaigning," said Gingrich. He'll also be on a book tour this spring to promote To Save America, his 20th book.

Reflecting on his decision not to run in '96, Gingrich said as the newly elected GOP speaker of the House of Representatives, it was impossible to turn around and start seeking the presidency.

"I knew in '96 that it was hopeless," he said. "You couldn't have taken over the House for the first time in 40 years, be in a middle of fairly profound series of reforms, and cheerfully go off to run for president. It's not physically doable, it's absurd."

By '07, however, Gingrich said he was "intrigued" by the possibility of running in '08. But timing and prospects for success dissuaded him from tossing his hat in the ring. Gingrich said that he didn't want to abandon American Solutions when it was just getting off the ground. It was formed in late '06.

But Gingrich also understood that with a very unpopular GOP incumbent in the WH, and his own dissatisfaction with his party, mounting a campaign would be problematic. "I would have been so critical of the Republican policies that other than William Jennings Bryan in 1896, I couldn't imagine a circumstance where it made sense to," said Gingrich. "I was very acutely aware of how hard '08 was going to be and how likely it was that we were going to lose," he said. "'12 is different."

One sign that Gingrich may be more serious about a presidential run in '12 than he was in the past is his recognition that in order to capture the GOP nomination he cannot get into the race late, as he thought he could in '08. "One of the things I learned was that you have to start much earlier than I thought you did," said Gingrich. "It's just an objective reality of the way the modern system works."

As he reflected on the arguments of a potential campaign, Gingrich mused, "I think that the three questions are: who are we [as a country], what do we have to do to compete successfully with China and India, and what threatens us and how do we stay safe?" If a GOPer could effectively organize a campaign around those themes, Gingrich said, "You'd be a [Ronald] Reagan or bigger majority coming together to say, 'Yep, that's the direction I want to go in.'"

Gingrich downplayed the notion his new PAC would dominate the political landscape: "We're trying to see how much it can raise." But in 2008, American Solutions, was the third-largest 527 group in that election cycle raising more than $22.7M, according to the campaign finance watchdog group the Center for Responsive Politics, and won kudos from GOPers for its pro-domestic energy crusade, "Drill Here, Drill Now."

That year the group was supported by several GOP fundraising stalwarts including Carl Lindner III, the co-chief executive of American Financial Group in Cincinnati; Richard Farmer, founder and chairman of the giant corporate uniform company, Cintas, also based in Cincinnati; and Robert Wood "Woody" Johnson IV, heir to the Johnson & Johnson fortune and owner of the New York Jets football team.

And while Gingrich seemed very open to a possible White House run he didn't dismiss Pres. Obama as a potential adversary. Having watched Bill Clinton resurrect his presidency after the '94 midterm Dem disaster that brought GOPers to power in the Congress, Gingrich observed, "Presidents have enormous latent capabilities."

It's one of the oldest tricks in the book -- demand debates of your opponent, then complain when your demands are not met. This time, ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) is the one demanding public meetings with his opponent, Sen. John McCain (R).

Hayworth marched into McCain campaign headquarters in Phoenix today to present an official letter requesting as many debates -- 10 -- as McCain sought with then-Sen. Obama during the WH'08 race.

"Sen. McCain has always demonstrated himself to be willing to face off with his opponents in political campaigns. I look forward to a vigorous and respectful series of joint appearances where we can discuss how we view the future of the Republican Party and our country," Hayworth said in a press conference outside McCain's campaign headquarters.

In an interview with Hotline OnCall last week, Hayworth suggested joint town hall meetings sponsored by every county GOP organization.

McCain's campaign is savvy enough not to be tricked by the stunt, and spokesperson Brian Rogers confirmed that his candidate will debate "all certified candidates."

Hayworth's "desperate publicity stunt today re-emphasizes what this race is all about: Who will be most effective for Arizonans in the U.S. Senate. While Sen. McCain is today leading the fight on behalf of Arizonans to stop the government takeover of our health care system, Mr. Hayworth held a press conference in our campaign parking lot," Rogers said.

McCain and Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) are both attending today's health care summit at Blair House.

The RNC is sending staffers to Guam to train party operatives, an RNC spokesperson confirms to Hotline OnCall, in advance of this year's open GOV race.

State and local development dir. Shannon Reeves and Director of Political Strategies for New Media George Alafoginis, 2 RNC officials, are in Guam this week as part of Steele's commitment to provide more party resources to U.S. territories, they told the Pacific Daily News. It is Reeves' second trip, after visiting last year. The 2 top staffers will also attend the party's Lincoln Day Dinner at a local resort.

"The visit is a part of party building activities the committee undertakes everyday to ensure the Republican Party is competitive in every state and territory, which is an important priority for Chairman Steele. To do otherwise -- and not make critical investments in our state and local parties -- would be political malpractice," said RNC communications director Doug Heye.

It is the RNC's second foray into Pacific Rim politics. Earlier this year, Hotline OnCall reported Steele had directed $20K to the Northern Mariana Islands for a GOV race, which the GOP lost.

On Guam, an island nation of 178K people, Gov. Felix Camacho (R) is term-limited, and LG Michael Cruz (R) and Sen. Eddie Calvo (R) are seeking the GOP nomination to replace him. Ex-Gov. Carl Gutierrez (D) is the likely Dem nominee.

Steele won the RNC chairmanship in Jan. '09 in large part because of a bloc of voters representing the island territories. Because of RNC rules, Guam and the NMI have as many votes on the RNC as, say, TX and CA -- 3 each. Steele critics accused his campaign of cutting a deal with island delegates, a charge Steele's camp has denied.

Steele ultimately won by a 91-77 margin, meaning the 12 island votes -- representing Guam, the NMI, American Samoa and the Virgin Islands -- provided his margin of victory over ex-SC GOP chair Katon Dawson.

A week-long trip from DC to Guam could cost several thousand dollars, according to airline websites. And the 2 aides had to leave the country just to get to Guam, too: Every flight we found went through Tokyo's Narita Airport, an uncomfortable 14-hour flight from DC's Dulles Airport.

IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) leads Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by seven points in the race to capture Pres. Obama's former SEN seat, according to a new poll conducted for the liberal blog Daily Kos.

The poll was conducted Feb. 22-24 by Research 2000. R2K surveyed 600 likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.

General Election Matchup
Giannoulias  43%
Kirk         36

After a tougher primary race and whispers of a scandal surrounding a bank associated with Giannoulias' family, Giannoulias is actually more popular than Kirk, according to the poll. Giannoulias is viewed favorably by 49% of respondents, while 34% view him unfavorably. Kirk's fav/unfav rating stands at 42%/35%.

Despite a difficult climate for their party, Dems have been seeking to portray Kirk as the DC insider in the race. Among indies -- those most likely to be disillusioned with DC -- Giannoulias leads Kirk by the smallest of margins, 36-35%.

Kirk trounced challenger Patrick Hughes, who ran to his right, in the GOP primary. But his moderate creds, such as support for the Dem energy bill last spring, aren't yet paying off in the general. He is capturing just 9% of the Dem vote in the poll, while Giannoulias holds 71% of Dems.

Meanwhile, IL's most famous DC export, Pres. Obama, remains popular among the voters he once represented in the Senate. Fully 60% of '10 LVs view Obama favorably, while 36% have an unfavorable impression of him.

Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) is perhaps the most well-known and well-liked politician in OR, but he isn't running away from GOPers in his race for a new term in office, according to a new GOP poll.

The poll, conducted by Moore Information (R), surveyed 500 registered voters between Feb. 20-21 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Kitzhaber was tested against businessman Allen Alley (R) and ex-Portland Trail Blazers player Chris Dudley (R).

General Election Matchups
Kitzhaber     45%     Kitzhaber     45%
Dudley        33      Alley         33

Kitzhaber leads by a wide margin in Multnomah Co., where Portland is, but he does not fare as well in Washington and Clackamas Cos., 2 key swing areas to the west. He still has plurality support in those areas, pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser write, but he is not winning by huge margins.

Then again, Kitzhaber could be dragged down by supporters of ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D), who is mounting a challenge to the former incumbent from the left. Bradbury lost to then-Sen. Gordon Smith (R) in '02, but he's popular with liberals, and he got a boost when ex-VP Al Gore endorsed him in Nov.

Dems remain the strong favorites in OR, meaning the GOP will have to get lucky to elect their first GOV since '82. Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) is prevented by term limits from running again.

KY ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) has begun reserving air time in advance of the May 18 SEN primary, according to a source with access to the information.

Paul, the surprisingly strong challenger to establishment favorite Trey Grayson (R), has already reserved $332K of air time in the 6 weeks before the primary. Paul is concentrating on the Louisville and Lexington markets, which make up a combined 57% of the KY market.

Paul has reserved $113K in ads in Louisville, good for 1,187 gross rating points, and $86K in Lexington, adding another 1,156 GRPs. Smaller buys in Paduchah-Cape Girardeau and Bowling Green will cost the campaign about $50K each and account for around 800 GRPs each. Those markets make up about 10% of the state, but they are more GOP-friendly territory.

So far, Paul has outspent Grayson, KY's Sec/State, by a wide margin. Grayson launched his first ad this week, a coal-focused spot with $17K behind it in Lexington and Charleston-Huntington, coal country. Paul has already spent $291K on ads, and a campaign spokesperson said the campaign would match Grayson's Eastern KY buy this week.

Grayson has no plans to be swamped. At the end of the year, he had $1.4M in the bank -- $100K more than Paul and more than enough to run an aggressive paid media campaign. But Paul has the early start, and though it's been a long time since a reliable poll surveyed the contest, consensus among political professionals is that Paul has an early lead.

Meanwhile, as they fight over King Coal in Eastern KY, Paul's camp is doing something most campaigns avoid at all costs -- admitting it selectively quoted Grayson to make him look bad on coal issues.

When Grayson launched his first foray into the paid media world, Paul's campaign went so far as to point out how they could distort Grayson's words, calling it politics as usual. The following day, in their own ad, Paul's camp went ahead and did so, using the same quote they had suggested they could manipulate just hours beforehand.

"All's fair in love and war," Paul manager David Adams told WHAS-TV political reporter Joe Arnold.

After the jump, the amount of money, and time, each candidate has purchased in each KY market.

As Dems struggle against a national tide that favors GOPers, they believe some GOP candidates can be tied to the Bush admin, which remains widely unpopular. Now, the DCCC is singling out one top GOP recruit for his past career as Karl Rove's deputy.

But ex-US Atty Tim Griffin (R), who is running for retiring Rep. Vic Snyder's (D-AR) seat, isn't apologizing for his career at the WH.

"I am very proud to have had the opportunity to work for a president, and I will tell any preacher's kid from Magnolia, Arkansas, if you get the opportunity to work for a president, I don't care who the president is, you go do it. And to say otherwise is silly," Griffin said at a roundtable with top GOP recruits yesterday.

Griffin was Rove's deputy in the WH political affairs shop before being appointed to the US Atty post. The DCCC will hit Griffin today for serving while the Bush admin pushed a plan to privatize Social Security.

"Arkansas seniors can't afford to let Tim Griffin and his cronies in Washington gamble their hard-earned Social Security funds on the stock market," DCCC spokesperson Jesse Ferguson said.

The shots at Griffin are part of the larger Dem effort to paint GOPers as DC insiders bent on returning to the Bush era. DSCC chair Bob Menendez slapped several GOP candidates as DC insiders while meeting with reporters yesterday, and the DSCC has lambasted Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) and ND Gov. John Hoeven (R) for inviting Rove to fundraisers.

Griffin is one of the strongest candidates the GOP has recruited this year. He is one of the NRCC's "Young Guns," the 10 contenders the party has spotlighted as their best hopes for winning this year.

And the shot at Griffin isn't the only one likely to come out of yesterday's meeting. As the contenders trickled in and out, Dems had trackers waiting to ask the candidates questions. Not to be outdone, though, the NRCC had their own trackers recording Dems.

"Some things never change," lamented ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH), another Young Gun, as he ignored a Dem aide with a camera shouting questions.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is taking a hard line against ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), accusing him of misappropriating party funds for his own use. And ironically, the party chairman Rubio allies ousted is the one causing Rubio heartburn.

The attacks come in the wake of a scandal that culminated in ex-FL GOP chair Jim Greer stepping down earlier this month. Greer made party credit cards available to some members of the legislature, including Rubio -- credit cards critics say were used improperly on many occasions.

Greer left office last week after enduring months of criticism from top GOP donors and Rubio backers. Crist originally tapped Greer to chair the state GOP, and Greer endorsed Crist's SEN bid -- a relationship with which Rubio backers were uncomfortable. In concert with long-time Greer opponents, who accused him of misspending party money, the criticism was enough to force Greer to announce his resignation earlier this year.

But even though he's gone, Greer is still playing a role in the race, and it's not a role Rubio wants to see. Rubio's camp, pushing back against the accusations of improper spending, has accused Greer of leaking key documents.

Charges on Rubio's card, first reported in this morning's Miami Herald, totaled $13,900 in personal expenses during his time as Speaker. Sometimes he contributed to the monthly bill; other times, he did not. During a 6 month period in which Rubio made no payments, the card shows purchases at an online Apple store, a lumber yard, a liquor store and an electronics store.

In a letter to new party chair John Thrasher, Rubio blamed Greer for the leaks.

"These actions are an appalling act of political desperation. The idea that the former chairman of the RPOF, or those working for the Governor, would selectively leak internal RPOF documents is disturbing. But sadly it is not surprising because these are the very men who put the party in the mess it is in today," Rubio wrote in the letter. "The Florida GOP under Jeb Bush was never run with this sort of arrogance, mismanagement, lack of integrity and lack of leadership."

Crist's campaign sees an opening to tear down Rubio's image as a hero of fiscal conservatives. Rubio, who finds himself on the defensive for the first time during the campaign, will paint the flap as an overblown product of Greer's mismanagement. Which line of argument carries the day in the FL press could drive the race over the next several weeks.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with Akio Toyoda's Cong. testimony.

WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett entered the "Situation Room" to discuss the summit 2/24 p.m.

Jarrett, on why govs. weren't invited to today's health care summit: "The governors of the United States were in town over the weekend and the president had an hour, hour-and-a-half meeting with them on Monday, a very robust meeting. Health care was front and center on the topic and so I think we've had an opportunity to hear from them this week. We have been working with them throughout this process. They've been integrally involved."

Jarrett, on how much flexibility there is in the WH plan: "I think that the president said very clearly he is open for all new, good, fresh ideas."

Jarrett, on whether the public option is dead: "I can't say it's dead. I think the president has said from the beginning that he thought it was important. Clearly the votes aren't there right this minute to support a public option but he thought it was important because it would help provide competition and bring down costs."

After the jump, more on the summit, as well as discussion of reconciliation.

Good Thursday morning. Something to look forward to for Friday: National Journal's annual vote rankings, when all those bets about who is more liberal than who, or which member is the most conservative, come to a definitive conclusion. Place your wagers now!

Here's Thursday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in today's headlines:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama kicks off his latest, and possibly last, chance at any bipartisan compromise on health care reform today when House and Senate leaders head to Blair House for a nationally televised summit. He has much at stake, but convincing Americans he's actually reaching across the aisle will be difficult -- especially if he doesn't find someone to reach back.

Though they remain publicly committed to pursuing a "normal" legislative process, the party is increasingly open to using budget reconciliation to move health care legislation. GOPers are terming it the "nuclear option" (a tactic they once threatened over George W. Bush's held up judicial nominees), but it's really not all that uncommon. And though it could lead to some negative op-eds in the short run, Dems may decide the long-term advantages are worth it.

They may have little choice. Dems are increasingly convinced that having something to show voters trumps having nothing. As OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D) told reporters on Saturday, voters don't reward failure, and so far, that's all Dems have to show for months of negotiating a measure that has cost considerable political capital.

CONGRESSIONAL GOPERS: Remind us, what's their incentive to compromise? House Min. Leader John Boehner wants to be Speaker Boehner. Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell wants to be Maj. Leader McConnell. Compromise on a health bill only hands Dems an issue they can take to voters in Nov.

So the GOP may talk about compromise, but it doesn't make political sense to strike a deal -- and McConnell and Boehner are no political dummies.

One angle to watch in the coming months: Dems are going to put pressure on the GOP to offer their own ideas and solutions, as DSCC chair Bob Menendez told reporters yesterday. And top NRCC recruits said yesterday they want to see a new version of the Contract with America.

As GOP operatives dissect their developing WH'12 playing field, some believe Sen. John Thune (R-SD) could alter it significantly -- if he chooses to run.

Thune avoids talk of seeking national office and keeps his eyes trained on his re-election race this year, causing some to wonder if he's letting an opportunity pass him by as likely GOP presidential contenders start hiring and ramping up now.

In a brief interview at the NGA conference on Monday, SD Gov. Mike Rounds (R) said, "John Thune has been totally focused on South Dakota and nothing outside of that. He is all South Dakota all the time."

For those focused on the GOP's health after this midterm cycle, that's not exactly what they want to hear. Said ex-Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) of a potential Thune presidential candidacy, "I'm not sure John has the fire in the belly for something of that magnitude." But because Martinez called Thune "tremendous" within the same breath, some Democrats wondered if it was an attempt by Martinez to fire Thune up.

Indeed, the former senator and RNC chair added of Thune and his team, "They're really going to have to get going in the next couple of months or they're going to be left behind. By January, the flags go down and the race starts. They have to get beyond the pondering and make a move."

The filing deadline for candidates in SD is March 30, and until that time, political observers expect Thune to keep out of national political maneuvering for fear of drawing a SEN challenger. In a climate where all incumbents could be vulnerable, though, it might be even later before Thune starts popping up in a greater national context; the filing deadline for independents is on June 8, primary day in SD.

But Thune doesn't have a challenger of any kind on the horizon yet, and Dems in the state and in DC say there are still no plans to field one.

One name that has been floated is state Sen. Nancy Turbak Berry, but she said in a phone interview Wednesday, "I have no interest in the U.S. Senate race whatsoever." She doubted that the Dem bench in the state will come up with anything and she, along with other state Dems, warned that the state party organization isn't very strong there.

Two Tea Party organizers, Mike Keolker and Shelli Hodgkins, say no one within the movement has ever discussed a challenge to Thune. "I haven't heard a thing," Hodgkins said.

"He doesn't come up," Keolker said. "If you want to talk about Sen. [Tim] Johnson or Rep. [Stephanie] Herseth Sandlin," the Dems in the state delegation, "that's another matter, but no one mentions Sen. Thune, and that should indicate that it would be a good thing for Sen. Thune."

The chairman of the Bernalillo Co. GOP is alleging a leading GOP GOV candidate physically assaulted a staffer, according to a string of emails made public by a NM political blog.

In an angry back-and-forth, Bernalillo Co. GOP chair Rick Abraham told Whitney Cheshire that her candidate, ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R), acted inappropriately during an altercation at the state conventions this weekend. Cheshire is Weh's campaign manager.

"Your candidate physically attacked one of my staff members in front of many witnesses and others, including myself, received verbal attacks from your staff," Abraham wrote to Cheshire, according to emails posted by well-respected NM blogger Joe Monahan today.

"My volunteers, staff and/or officers are tried of your 'bully-style' tactics. We will no longer tolerate anymore [sic] verbal or physical abuse by your campaign or candidate and we will notify the authorities if this abuse continues [to] occur," Abraham wrote.

The argument stems from last weekend's convention, when some Weh backers could not get into the party gathering to support their candidate. Cheshire emailed Abraham to seek refunds of the $25 entry fees that delegates paid to be able to vote.

Cheshire did not take kindly to Abraham's suggestion of physical or verbal intimidation.

"[I]f you ever threaten a member of my staff again, either verbally or physically, we won't just threaten to call the police, we will in fact file a criminal complaint against you," Cheshire wrote. "I would suggest, however, that for the next few days, you and ALL PARTIES WHO HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN VERBAL ALTERCATIONS take a deep breath and back off. We are tired of being abused by you and the staff on other campaigns and remind you that all of those attacks occurred in public as well."

Abraham was not immediately available to comment. Cheshire, reached at the campaign office, declined to comment and referred Hotline OnCall to the campaign's press secretary, who did not immediately call back.

Weh, a Vietnam vet who runs an air charter company, is running against consultant Doug Turner, Dona Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez, atty Pete Domenici Jr. and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones in the GOP primary. The winner will face LG Diane Denish (D) in the general.

Read the entire exchange between Cheshire and Abraham here.

As Senate Dems warm to the idea of pushing health care through the Senate with fewer than 60 votes -- the process known as budget reconciliation -- Congress watchers are brushing up on their rules. Dems have not said definitively they will use reconciliation, but GOPers are raising the alarms nonetheless.

Budget reconciliation rules call for certain committees to propose changes to legislation under their jurisdiction to meet certain budgetary goals, according to a background memo prepared by a Dem research shop. Legislation prepared under reconciliation would be subject to a 20-hour debate, including limits on the kinds of amendments that can be offered.

Using reconciliation is rare, but it is not unprecedented. The rules have been used to pass 19 measures since '80, including to pass the Balanced Budget Act in '96, welfare reform in '97 and tax cut bills in '01 and '03 -- all events that happened while the GOP controlled the Senate.

In fact, COBRA, which gave workers the option to continue using a former employer's health plan after they lose or leave their jobs, came out of a budget reconciliation process. The program gets its name from the mammoth bill it passed through, the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of '85.

The GOP makes the case that reconciliation is only used to pass bipartisan legislation, but that hasn't always been the case. In '95, the Balanced Budget Act mustered just 54 votes in the Senate on final passage, on a straight party-line vote. The tax cuts in '01 and 03, too, did not fare well in attracting bipartisan support.

But the GOP quibbles with the type of bill Dems want to pass. Such a large package, they say, was not meant to be taken up under reconciliation.

"There were bills that passed through reconciliation before -- nobody has claimed there wasn't. Many, though, were bipartisan; some passed by voice vote," said Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senate Maj. Leader Mitch McConnell. "The difference here of course is that this is being used to fundamentally change one sixth of the economy against the wishes of the American people. It's not like tax relief that had bipartisan support and north of 60 votes."

Dems say they would prefer to bring up health care under the normal legislative process. But an increasing number of Dems -- including those who were reluctant to pursue reconciliation previously -- are now saying the option is on the table.

For more on the long history of budget reconciliation, and the storied role it has already played in reforming the nation's health care system, check out NPR's excellent take from today's "Morning Edition."

GOPers will miss out on winning in key states this year because divisive primaries will force their eventual nominee too far to the right, DSCC chair Bob Menendez said today, previewing Dem plans to defend the Senate.

And the GOP does, in fact, face competitive primaries in a number of states. In NV, CT, CO, NH, KY, FL, AR and CA -- the vast majority of states the GOP could win this year -- Dems will face the winner of a crowded GOP primary field.

But even those primaries may not be enough to beat long odds Dems are facing. Meeting with reporters at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, Menendez said he recognized the "challenges" Dems face this election cycle, even as he tries to turn attention to the GOP.

"Republicans have a battered brand and no argument," Menendez said. He promised to pressure GOPers in key districts to answer policy questions, and to offer their own proposals, instead of just standing against Dems' ideas.

GOPers scoffed at the idea that primaries would hurt their chances. "If having primaries presents a problem according to the Democrats, then it doesn't sound like they're terribly optimistic about their own chances in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky," said NRSC spokesperson Brian Walsh.

Listing Dem accomplishments this year, Menendez said he will urge his candidates to run on a record of results. And, he predicted, health care will be among those accomplishments before Election Day.

But, he said, a key to winning races will be to define GOPers early and often. Though they lost the race, Dems said they saw movement in their direction after they started labeling Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) a friend of Wall Street special interests. The breakthrough "came too late," Menendez said, but he hinted the party would exercise those muscles in other races.

During a bumpy 2 months in which 3 members of the Dem caucus announced they would retire and another top-tier candidate bowed out of contesting a Dem-held seat, Menendez took his share of punishment.

But, he said, he hopes the worst of times are behind him. He said he has "every confidence" that no other member would retire, and he said Pres. Obama remains the best campaigner the party has.

And though the GOP and some pundits have quietly brought it up of late, Menendez dismisses out of hand the notion that GOPers could take back the Senate. It is, at best, "wishful thinking," he said.

Vowing to run their campaigns locally instead of relying on DC, 10 candidates who have made the NRCC's "Young Guns" tier met reporters in DC today after being feted before GOP members of Congress.

The 10 candidates, 9 of whom the NRCC sees as some of their best hopes of taking back Dem-held House seats this year, at once associated themselves with each other while distancing themselves from a national party they said they would come to DC to fix.

"I am a Republican, but I am a conservative first," said ex-US Atty Tim Griffin (R), who is running for an open seat held by Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR). Added Iraq war vet Allen West (R), who is running against Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL): "The Republican Party has not completely regained the trust" of the American people.

"We will have enough clout in the freshman class to have a major impact," said OH state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), who is waging a second battle against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM) predicted a "new paradigm" if GOPers retake the House: "The discussions I'm having with leadership indicate a very strong understanding of what went wrong."

The candidates said they all want to see a second Contract with America, or something very like the set of issues on which members of the class of '94 promised to vote if they retook Congress. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who recruited many of the Young Gun contenders, is beginning work on just such a proposal, with House GOP support.

"We should have a set of principles, and I think we probably will," said ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH), who is running for the seat he lost in '08. Chabot said he wants to see the GOP plan contain a balanced budget proposal and a series of tax cuts.

West said he would like to see broader conservative principles like promoting limited government, national security and personal responsibility. Stivers, in the meantime, said he wanted to see "process" aspects of a new contract -- promoting transparency and the way the GOP would operate the House.

The GOPers acknowledged that their party may not have the money to compete with Dems. The NRCC faces a tremendous cash disadvantage when matched against the DCCC, but candidates said any recognition they get, and cash they raise, will come from their
independent efforts, not from DC.

"All the ads in the world don't sell a broken product to the American people," said MD state Sen. Andy Harris (R), who is taking a second run against Rep. Frank Kratovil (D).

And, GOPers said, Dems' positions have hurt more than any ads could save them -- even as they seek to challenge incumbents who voted against key Dem initiatives.

"More people have read the 2,000-page health care bill than have read the Bible in my district, I will guarantee you that," Pearce said.

"39 Democrats voted against the health care bill. Zero Democrats voted for the GOP alternative. What happened?" Asked Vaughn Ward (R), an Iraq war vet running against Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID). Minnick voted against both bills. "Walt Minnick stands at the crossroads for nothing," Ward said.

Here is a list of the nets' planned coverage of the 2/25 bipartisan health care summit. The list will be updated as information becomes available. All times ET.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer will lead the net's "extensive, live coverage" of the summit. Coverage will begin at 10am. Blitzer, along with Candy Crowley and John King "will discuss the summit with other members" of the political team. Additionally, Ali Velshi will do "instantaneous fact-checks throughout the programming," and discussion and analysis will continue before and after the summit.

FNC will have Bret Baier lead the "live coverage" of the summit beginning at 9:50am. Additionally, Megyn Kelly will air a special "America Live" at 1pm, and Shepard Smith will host a special "Studio B" at 3pm. Baier's coverage will continue during "Special Report" at 6pm.

MSNBC will have live coverage of the summit from 10am-2pm, and will have a primetime special on the summit from 9-11pm with Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews.

NBC's "Today" will host WH press sec. Robert Gibbs 2/25 a.m., and "Nightly News" will have segments on the summit 2/25 p.m.

DSCC chair Bob Menendez on Wednesday voiced strong support for Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), one of the likely contenders to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D) on the ballot, even as other top Dems are considering throwing their hats into the ring.

"It seems to me that Cong. Ellsworth is going to be a great candidate," Menendez said during a breakfast with reporters sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.

Ellsworth did not file for re-election to his House seat -- something Menendez said "speaks volumes" about his intentions to run for Bayh's seat. Other lesser-known contenders, like Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott (D) and '92 nominee/ex-Sec/State Joe Hogsett (D), are either still running or are keeping their options open.

Rep. Baron Hill (D) has not decided whether he will make a race either. Hill told the Louisville Courier-Journal he is "open to the idea. It doesn't mean that I'm going to do it."

Hill has said he would like to run for GOV in '12, but if Bayh -- a former 2-term gov. himself -- decides to get into that race, it could preclude Hill's statewide ambitions, at least until Sen. Richard Lugar (R) retires.

Though Menendez wants Ellsworth to run, he made clear he is not the final arbiter. "Ultimately, it's the decision of the state committee in Indiana," he said. IN Dems will meet in June to formally pick their nominee, though they are likely to coalesce behind a pick earlier than that.

Meanwhile, both parties are looking into whether or not the eventual Dem nominee will be severely hampered by federal fundraising rules. GOPers plan to argue that because Dems won't face a primary -- in fact, Dems will pick their candidate after GOPers hold a May 4 primary -- the eventual Dem nominee shouldn't be able to raise as much as the GOP nominee.

FEC rules allow for contributions of $2,400 from individuals and $5,000 from PACs to candidates per election. That means ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) or state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) would be able to raise $2,400 from a donor for the primary, and then, assuming they win, another $2,400 for the general election -- a total of $4,800 per individual.

Top GOPers are looking into whether Dems should be allowed to abide by the same rules. Because there will be no primary, they argue, Dems should only be allowed to raise $2,400 from individual donors once.

If the issue ever gets to court, Dems are expected to fight back hard. Top Dem lawyer Marc Elias has already been working with the DSCC to figure out state laws surrounding replacement candidates, following Bayh's sudden and surprising departure last week.

One is the chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee. One is a 5-term congressman in the minority who does not rank in the top half of any of the 3 committees on which he sits. Which one is the DC insider?

To hear DSCC chair Bob Menendez tell it, it's Rep. John Boozman (R), the junior GOPer, and not Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), the 2-term Dem who plays an increasingly important role as a centrist Dem.

But Menendez, facing a series of competitive races this year, insists that Dems will run against GOP rivals steeped in the culture of failed DC. The case is stronger against some GOPers than others -- ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) served as USTR and OMB director under George W. Bush, and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) served in House leadership -- but the DSCC will try to brand even candidates running as outsiders as the consumate political power players.

"At a time when there's a lot of anger towards Washington, it seems that Republicans certainly have taken the tact quite differently,
" Menendez said at a breakfast this morning sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. Citing Portman, Blunt, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT), Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) and ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN), Menendez added: "These are not agents of change."

"They're either running lobbyists or people who are long established on the Republican side," he said.

But Dems have their own insiders. Reps. Paul Hodes (D-NH), Charlie Melancon (D-LA) and Kendrick Meek (D-FL) are all seeking Senate seats. Lincoln and Environment and Public Works Committee chair Barbara Boxer (D-CA) are seeking re-election. And the DSCC will likely have to spend millions defending Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), whose title as maj. leader makes him hard to cast as an outsider.

"If the standard is that our candidates are Washington insiders, then I look forward to hearing what Paul Hodes, Charlie Melancon and Kendrick Meek have to say about that label," NRSC spokesperson Brian Walsh said.

Menendez insisted that Lincoln and other incumbents -- in response to a question, he named Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), who has yet to draw a top-tier opponent -- have independent streaks, and that's true. Lincoln has been one of the toughest Senate votes to woo on health reform, and incumbents like Feingold and Boxer routinely irritate Dem leadership by pushing their party in one way or another.

Voters are angry at the way DC is operating, and they have showed it. But claiming that being a DC insider is a bad thing, as Menendez has tried to do, could backfire, given the overwhelming majorities Dems hold in the House and Senate.

For more from this morning's CSM breakfast with Menendez, check back with Hotline OnCall throughout the day.

The HI State Office of Elections has set 5/22 as the target date for the special election to replace Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-01), according to a 2/23 notice the office sent to vendors. Abercrombie will resign his seat on 2/28.

While the date for the vote-by-mail special is tentatively set for 5/22, that's not set in stone. The State Office of Elections memo warns, "A variety of issues related to funding, logistical, and legal matters may impact that date."

Indeed, the state has had a difficult time finding funding for what's expected to be a $900K+ special election, and officials have warned that legal issues pertaining to the purchase voting machines could potentially move the election to a later date.

The election will feature the names the names of at least three candidates: ex-HI-02 Rep. Ed Case (D), '02/'06 HI-02 candidate/state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Honolulu Councilor Charles Djou (R).

GOPers are hoping that Dems split the vote, allowing Djou to slide to victory. But recent polling shows Case with a big early lead.

Just days after supporting a jobs bill on a critical cloture vote in the Senate, Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) voted for final passage, risking once again a trade of his stardom among conservatives for a better chance at holding his seat in '12.

"We need to put partisanship aside to put people back to work. This jobs bill is far from perfect, and ideally would include deeper and broader tax cuts," Brown said in a statement. "I supported this measure because it does contain some tax relief that will help Massachusetts businesses put people back to work."

After he voted for cloture, Brown took heat from some GOPers -- including Rush Limbaugh -- for supporting the bill. Limbaugh and others laughed the $15B proposal off as too small to stimuluate the economy.

Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) had agreed on a larger $85B package before Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid pulled it in favor of his own proposal. Reid's bill passed by a 70-28 margin.

Brown has one more chance to vote on the bill, after House and Senate conferees iron out the differences between the 2 packages. And, he said, he isn't committed to voting for final package.

"Right now, this is a tax-cutting bill. But if it comes back to the Senate full of pork, waste, fraud and abuse, I reserve the right to vote against it," he said in the statement.

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and other conservatives have said they would hold Dems responsible if they voted for cloture on a health reform bill. The jobs bill won't anger as many GOPers as the health reform bill did, but conservatives outside the Senate could remember it as Brown's first major vote -- and the first vote on which he crossed his party nationally in order to give the GOP a better chance to save his seat.

In total, just 5 GOPers voted for cloture -- Brown, Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Susan Collins (R-ME), Kit Bond (R-MO) and George Voinovich (R-OH). Today, Sens. Richard Burr (R-NC), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), James Inhofe (R-OK), George LeMieux (R-FL), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Roger Wicker (R-MS).

As the RGA launches its first ads against FL CFO Alex Sink (D), the state Dem party is attacking her rival, AG Bill McCollum (R) in their own new ad.

In a 30-second spot airing statewide, the party casts McCollum as a DC politician. The spot accuses McCollum of voting to raise his own pay while he was a member of Congress, and for voting 5 times to increase the debt limit (Never mind that Dems, joined by only a handful of GOPers, voted last week to raise the debt limit).

The FL Dem party is paying for the ads, giving the DGA a little room to rest before they have to weigh in. The FL party had $611K in their federal account, according to the latest FEC filings, along with $39K in debt, meaning they will have the ability to spend resources on several of the competitive races the state will see this year.

Meanwhile, the FL GOP is undergoing a particularly rough patch, with accusations of mismanagement of funds flying. The former chair, Jim Greer, was forced from office, and party insiders revealed ex-executive director Delmar Johnson earned more than $400K last year thanks to a fundraising contract he held with the party (A new chairman, elected over the weekend, promised to bring in a major accounting firm to look into the party's books).

Now, the FL GOP has just $124K in its federal account, along with $466K in debt. Both parties have state accounts from which they will pay for ads in the tight race between Sink and McCollum, but the RGA may have to do more heavy lifting than the DGA, given the limited funds the state GOP has to spend.

There are few GOP candidates the NRSC is more thrilled with than ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R), and in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH), he keeps his narrow lead over his most likely Dem rival, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac Univ. survey polled 1,662 OH voters between Feb. 16-21 for a margin of error of +/- 2.4%. Portman was tested against LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). The poll included a subsample of 604 Dem voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

General Election Matchups
          All Dem GOP Ind             All Dem GOP Ind
Portman   40%  6% 77% 39%   Portman   40%  7% 75% 40%
Fisher    37  79   6  27    Brunner   35  74   6  28

Primary Election Matchup
Fisher    29%
Brunner   20

In Quinnipiac's last poll, released Nov. 12, Portman held an identical 3-point lead over Fisher. He increased his lead over Brunner by a single point.

Political watchers in both parties expect Fisher to easily win the Dem primary over Brunner, given his massive financial advantage. At the end of the year, Fisher had $1.8M in the bank, while Brunner had just $60K on hand.

But Fisher may face an uphill climb in Nov. Portman already has more than $6M in the bank, and he's widely regarded as an excellent campaigner. Dems hope his time as OMB director and U.S. Trade Rep. under George W. Bush will help them make the case that Portman isn't right for manufacturing-heavy OH.

The perception of each candidate is still maleable, though. All 3 have a net-favorable rating, but 61% don't know enough about him to rate Fisher, making him the best-known of the crew. 66% say they don't know enough about either Brunner or Portman to make a call.

"World News", "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the Cong. hearings on Toyota.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) went "On the Record" 2/23 p.m.

FNC's Van Susteren, referring to Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's comments that GOPers need to "stop crying" over reconciliation: "Are you crying?"

Graham: "I'm pretty happy."

Van Susteren: "Okay, you're not crying."

Graham: "No."

More Graham, on reconciliation: "It's never been used this way. It was never meant to be used this way. We need health care reform, and obviously, we need better hearing in Washington because if our Democratic friends don't understand what Massachusetts was about, that's scary. ... What's their response? To accuse us of crying when they try to jam it through with 51 votes and to ignore the American people by making it bigger? I think they've lost their mind."

After the jump, more from Graham, and other pols weigh in on health care.

Good Wednesday morning. Yesterday, we reported the WH offered ex-Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) a blank check for his vote on the stimulus measure. We've heard of the Nebraska Compromise, or the Cornhusker Kickback, or the Louisiana Purchase. What's a good name for this one? House Race Hotline's Tim Sahd suggested "Gator Bait." GOP strategist Chris Taylor went with the "Miami Price." Have a better suggestion? Email us.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, offering a sneak peak at the people who will make headlines today:

JIM MESSINA: The deputy WH CoS, a longtime DC and campaign operative who has remained under the radar for much of his career, is the early favorite to run Pres. Obama's re-elect campaign. The campaign is likely to be run out of Chicago, rather than the Beltway, and key players are already beginning discussions about how the massive effort to get Obama another 4 years in office.

The news, first reported by Politico and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, shows the WH is gearing up early for what could be a difficult fight. Key players will include ex-WH communications director Anita Dunn, DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse, WH political director Patrick Gaspard, DNC executive director Jennifer O'Malley Dillon and top officials at OFA, Obama's political wing that operates out of the DNC.

GOPers have already started their WH'12 bids -- just look to last weekend's CPAC meeting and overt moves by ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty and even ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin for evidence of that. And despite their optimism over Obama's poll numbers, which get uglier every day among independent voters, remember both the past and the future: Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had miserable first years in office, but both won re-election. And Obama's donor list and personal popularity mean he will have the financial resources necessary to swamp the competition. It may not be a pretty re-elect, but Obama's team is laying the early foundation already.

DSCC CHAIR BOB MENENDEZ: Menendez will address reporters at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor today, aiming to show confidence after an inauspicious start to the new year in which he has the unenviable task of defending many vulnerable Dem-held seats. Menendez will be realistic about the challenges Dems face, and he will kick off an offensive aimed at pressuring GOPers to offer ideas rather than just opposition, according to a Dem source.

That job has only gotten harder. Over the last 2 months, Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) have given up their re-elect bids, throwing 2 previously-safe Dem seats into play (though Dodd's move makes the CT seat an easier hold for Dems). Sens. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) have seen their own political standing sink to lower ebbs. And DE AG Beau Biden's decision not to run for his father's old seat could essentially hand it to Rep. Mike Castle (R).

But Dems aren't completely without targets. The party still has chances to pick up open GOP-held seats in NH, MO, OH and KY, and a divisive FL GOP primary keeps the door open -- but just a crack -- for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). Add to that the fact that voters see the GOP in a worse light than they do Dems, and that SEN candidates spend enough money to give Dems the opportunity to make the races less about national landscapes than about a choice between 2 candidates and Menendez has at least some reason to be optimistic.

Ex-Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) could have named his price for his vote on last year's stimulus bill, but he told the Obama admin there was nothing he wanted.

In an interview as he waited to catch a flight, Martinez said he could have had his own Cornhusker kickback, the derisive name GOPers have given to a deal cut with Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) in exchange for Nelson's vote on health reform legislation.

During negotiations over the stimulus bill, Martinez said the WH asked him, "What do you have to have?"

"But I didn't have to have anything," he said he responded. "I didn't want anything. I wanted a better bill." Martinez said the talks were disillusioning when it came down to "how can we bribe you" for a vote. "So I walked away from the table," he said, and added that it made him wonder, "What difference do I make?"

A spokesman for the WH acknowledged an inquiry but did not comment, as did a spokesman for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid.

For his part, Martinez led a group of GOP senators early last year to draft an alternative to the majority's stimulus proposal, and there were things that he did want to see both in and out of the bill in discussion.

The Miami Herald reported last February that Martinez lamented in a floor speech that FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), who he is supporting in the race to replace him in the Senate, didn't understand about the stimulus that "there will be nothing here to help with Florida's housing economy, the number-one problem in Florida's economic troubles that we have today are related to housing," Martinez said.

GOP operatives have admitted that Dems are coming off of a very strong political week for blasting the minority for hypocrisy on the stimulus measure. But the GOP has not backed off of its contention that talks over the $787B bill, which passed a year ago last week, are precisely the moment where Pres. Obama's attempts at bipartisanship went wrong, Martinez said.

Martinez left the Senate last August. Crist replaced him with Sen. George LeMieux (R), Crist's former top aide.

The federal government has failed to do its job to secure the U.S. border with Mexico, the likely Dem nominee for TX GOV said Tuesday.

Ex-Houston Mayor Bill White (D) lambasted the government's border security efforts, saying "the federal government has the responsibility to secure our borders, and has done a poor job and has failed."

In a wide-ranging interview with Hotline OnCall, White insisted that he is better prepared to address immigration and border security than Gov. Rick Perry (R), as he underscored his record as mayor and touted his accomplishments in bringing down crime rates in the city throughout his tenure.

Border security promises to be a front and center issue during the general election, and has already has taken center stage in the GOP primary. In his race against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Perry has also criticized the federal government in dealing with border security, while defending his own record on the issue. Perry has also called for the DoD to provide drones to patrol the border region and for the federal gov't to help reimburse the state for costs associated with imprisonment of illegal immigrants.

White said he believes Perry will use immigration and social "wedge" issues to divide the electorate in an attempt to win the race.

"There is no doubt in my mind that they will conjure fears of unlawful immigration, because fear is always cheaper to sell than either reality or hope," said White. "Will he try to play the politics of fear? Of course he will. That's how he's gotten elected each time."

While casting himself as a bipartisan figure, White accused Perry of being too partisan. "I don't believe in partisanship in governance," said White. "Gov. Perry has used political litmus tests to make political appointments. So, you know, what people are tired of is the strident gridlock, sound bite rather than solution politics in DC, and he epitomizes that."

Perry spokesperson Mark Miner responded by saying "Gov. Perry is focused on being governor and his primary race, not baseless attacks by a liberal Democrat."

If Perry emerges victorious from the GOP primary, White will for the first time in the campaign receive direct attacks from a highly visible, well-funded opponent. During the Dem primary, White has largely been able to focus on his own record and attacking Perry's, while avoiding a more serious issues-based battle with hair care mogul Farouk Shami (D), whose own campaign has seen its share of both fundraising and message problems.

If Hutchison emerges as the GOP victor, then she has the potential to steal away a chunk of White's moderate and conservative Dem support. And if she does not survive the GOP primary, the question of where her core support heads will also loom large for White. There is a possibility that a portion of her base may find themselves more at home in White's camp. White chose his words carefully when addressing Hutchison, calling the attacks on her "vicious," as he refused to portray her in an overly negative light. "I agree with some of Sen. Hutchison's criticisms of the Perry administration. ... I think she makes some good points on that."

The '10 midterm elections will cost at least $3.7B, according to new estimates from the Center for Responsive Politics.

Already this cycle, political parties spent $493M, while candidates running for federal office spent $305.5M, according to the Center's studies. Outside groups will add millions more by the time election day rolls around.

Meanwhile, outside corporations have the ability to spend millions as well, following a SCOTUS decision that struck down earlier campaign finance law. The Center did not include estimates of corporate donations, as allowed by Citizens United v. FEC, in their report.

Already, candidates in 10 SEN races have raised more than $10M combined, according to reports filed with the FEC. Leading the pack is PA, where Sen. Arlen Specter is facing Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the Dem primary. The winner will take on ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in a general election.

Specter, Sestak and Toomey have raised a combined $22.9M, the Center shows. Candidates in NV, where Sen. Harry Reid (D) faces a crowded GOP field, have pulled in $19.2M. FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) aggressive fundraising has helped 3 major candidates in that race raise $18.6M, while candidates running for Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D-CA) seat have raised $16.6M.

On the House side, Rep. Joe Wilson's (R-SC) outburst at a Sept. joint session of Congress led to a fundraising surge for both Wilson and Iraq war vet. Rob Miller (D). The 2 have raised a combined $5.4M. Spending on special elections in NY-20 and NY-23 both topped $3M.

Dems are raising more money, on average, than their GOP rivals, the Center's data shows. The average incumbent House Dem has pulled in $685K so far this year, while an incumbent GOPer in the House averages $595K raised.

The RGA has launched the first ad in a '10 GOV race, blasting FL CFO Alex Sink (D) for her tenure as a bank CEO.

The 15-second spot, "Fired," casts Sink as "not one of us, one of them."

It's the RGA's first shot at Sink, the only Dem elected to a statewide, non-federal post. Sink is running close to likely GOP nom./AG Bill McCollum (R), according to recent polls.

An RGA spokesperson declined to give specifics of the size of the ad buy. But he said it is a significant purchase that will run on broadcast and cable.

So says The Hotline's editor in chief Amy Walter:

America, we are told, is angry. We see it in the Tea Party movement and in the unexpected retirement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) a sign that even those who've been steeped in D.C. culture are fed up with the place.

...

But before you go investing in torches and pitchforks, it's important to differentiate between frustration with the way government is working (or, more accurately, not working) and a desire for government to get out of the way. Just because voters aren't happy with government doesn't mean that they don't want government to play a role in their lives. Instead, views of Washington are just as polarized as Washington itself.

...

In times of great stress and anxiety, voters demand more of their elected officials, not less. What they are tired of isn't government, but excuses and finger-pointing. Democrats won elections in 2006 and 2008 simply because they weren't the folks in power. Republicans will be able to pick up seats this year based on the same formula. But a majority is only as enduring as the results it can deliver. This requires a focus less on winning the majority and more about figuring out what to do once you're there.

Read the full column here.

Public polls show him trailing a less-well-known rival, and now FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is losing key staffers.

Crist will lose political dir. Pablo Diaz at the end of the month, while new media consultant Sean Doughtie left at the end of Jan., St. Pete Times political editor Adam Smith reports today.

Doughtie was hired for a specific task and was not on staff, a source said, while Diaz is leaving to take another job.

Crist still has a stable of well-respected political operatives and top-notch consultants around him, but there are other signs that indicate his campaign is aching.

This week, he has started the war over debates, a tactic usually employed by campaigns that believe they are behind. He urged rival Marco Rubio (R) to accept a debate on NBC as well as one on Fox News Sunday. Rubio has said he thinks Fox should get the first debate.

"Our campaign remains fully engaged on all fronts. Gov. Crist has always worked first and foremost for the people of Florida and that will remain his priority throughout this campaign," said Amanda Henneberg, Crist's spokesperson.

Meanwhile, Rubio is following his star turn at CPAC this week with a campaign swing. But when he hits 3 cities alongside Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), he won't get any votes. That's because Rubio is campaigning in DeMint's home state, rather than his own. SC hosts the first-in-the-South GOP WH primary.

DeMint is seen as a leader of the conservative wing of the GOP, and some believe he will look to run for higher office in the future. The fact that an invite to the 3 events, in Charleston, Columbia and Greenville, boasts a DeMintRubio.com website address isn't going to do anything to stem speculation.

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) stayed atop the conservative mind with a radio show on the biggest conservative talk station in Phoenix. But the show is proving a treasure trove of oppo research for his rival, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

McCain's camp is taking a new angle on Hayworth, accusing him of being a birther for comments Hayworth made during his radio career. In a new clip, from July '09, Hayworth says "questions continue" about Obama's birth certificate.

"Equal justice under law: Doesn't that include this president and his birth certificate?" Hayworth asked on the July 15 show, according to a recording the McCain campaign is sending to reporters.

"Mr. Hayworth can run from his record, but he can't hide," McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers said of the clip. "We welcome Mr. Hayworth attempting to shift positions on this issue, but he can't obscure his real record as he backtracks. Facts are stubborn things, JD."

McCain has been running radio ads critical of Hayworth's record on spending, an indication, Hayworth told Hotline OnCall, that McCain is in "panic" mode. McCain has also distributed talking points on Hayworth's record to friendly GOPers in AZ, another sign he's taking Hayworth's challenge seriously.

Hayworth's team dismisses the controversy over his birther comments, attributing them to a need to stir up controversy on the radio.

"As a talk show host, it was J.D.'s job to provoke discussion, including on this issue since people were calling in about it," said Jason Rose, Hayworth's senior advisor. "Questions were asked when that topic was in the news. Those questions have been answered to the satisfaction of jd and most of america. The issue is closed."

Well that was fast. Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) didn't let even a single day pass before he launched a new TV spot slamming rival Trey Grayson's (R) first negative ad.

Grayson, the KY Sec/State and the GOP establishment's favored candidate in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R), launched his first ad yesterday, taking a shot at Paul's stance on coal. Now, Paul is firing back, highlighting some of Grayson's own statements.

"Rand Paul will stop Obama and the EPA from crippling the mining industry," a narrator says. The ad highlights Grayson saying he looks forward to working with Pres. Obama, something that won't play well in a KY GOP primary.

Paul has the clear edge in early advertising, according to reports provided from both Dem and GOP sources. Paul spent $291K on an ad blitz this summer, while Grayson has purchased TV time in just 2 of KY's 7 markets. In total, Grayson has spent $17K, according to the sources who have access to ad buy information.

A Paul spokesperson said the response ad will essentially match the size of Grayson's buy.

Update: Grayson spokesperson Nate Hodson replies to Paul's ad: "Our ad quoted Rand Paul in context sharing his view that coal is dirty and the least desirable form of energy. Viewers can watch the full video of Rand Paul opposing coal in all its glory on the Internet if there's a question about context," Hodson said. "The Paul video shows a small clip of Grayson discussing the GOP platform to which he successfully added pro-coal language in 2008. There's nothing inconsistent about what Grayson has said in supporting increased production of coal and nuclear power as well as more off-shore drilling."

"Rand Paul continues to show his willingness to say and do anything to get elected, even if it means taking the direct opposite view of his beliefs just months ago. He has to do this, because his true positions are directly opposed to those of Kentucky Republican primary voters," Hodson added.

OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D) leads his GOP rival, but his share of the vote remains well under a majority, according to a new survey.

The Quinnipiac Univ. survey of 1,662 OH voters between Feb. 16-21 has a margin of error of +/- 2.4%. Strickland was tested against ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
             All Dem GOP Ind
Strickland   44% 82% 11% 38% (+4 from last, 11/11)
Kasich       39   9  73  38  (-1)

Strickland boasts a lead after being tied in the Nov. poll, but Kasich still has room to grow. Just 36% of voters have an opinion of the former House Budget Committee chair -- 26% fav, 10% unfav -- meaning he has the chance to build on his early support.

Strickland's 45%/36% fav/unfav isn't terrible, and 48% still approve of his job as Gov. But both numbers remain well under the 50% mark, considered safe for an incumbent. What's more, other metrics aren't on Strickland's side -- 68% of voters are either somewhat or very dissatisfied with the direction in which OH is going, Pres. Obama has a net-negative 44%-52% job approval rating, and just 35% say they approve of Strickland's handling of the economy (53% disapprove).

Don't expect the campaign to be fought exclusively on turf that benefits Kasich, though. In an interview with Hotline OnCall this weekend, Strickland hinted he will defend his own record while focusing on Kasich's time in Congress -- and his tenure at Lehman Brothers -- as well.

"I have an opponent who has a record as well. In a sense, he's an incumbent, just as I'm an incumbent. We both were members of congress -- he for 18 years, me for 12 years," Strickland said. "So we have records. I have a record since leaving congress, he has a record since leaving congress, having a been a managing director of Lehman Brothers at the time that it went into bankruptcy, and really was the tipping point leading us into this current recession. And so our records will be debated, as they should be."

-- Sean Sullivan contributed to this article.

Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R) has raised tons of cash, and is one of the first challengers to appear on the NRCC's "Young Guns" list. Now, he has the polling data to prove that he's got Rep. Harry Teague (D) on the ropes. A new survey, taken for Pearce's camp, shows him with a slight lead over Teague in this expansive southern NM district.

The Tarrance Group (R) poll, surveyed 401 likely voters between 2/16-18 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Pearce and Teague were tested.

General Election Matchup
Pearce 48%
Teague 44

Generic Ballot Matchup
GOPer 47%
Dem 37

The good news for Teague is that he outperforms the Dem generic ballot, meaning that some voters who are turned off by the Dem brand still feel some connection to the hard-working incumbent. The bad news is that he's still way below 50%, and the rest of those votes will be hard to make up.

To many in this oil-and-gas powered CD, their first introduction to Rep. Teague was his vote to support the cap-and-trade legislation last year, something that didn't go down well with many voters.

By registration, this is a Dem-leaning CD, but on the WH level, it generally votes GOP (AZ Sen. John McCain eked out a 50-49% win there in '08; George W. Bush took 58% in '04). Pearce held this seat from '02-'08, when he decided to make an ill-fated run for SEN. During those three cycles, he held a lock on the seat, never winning with less than 56%.

Pearce is a strong challenger, and this race is sure to be one of the top pickup opportunities for GOPers this cycle.

"World News" led with a criminal investigation into Toyota. "Evening News" led with Pres. Obama's health care reform plan. "Nightly News" led with new revelations surrounding the Najibullah Zazi NYC terror plot.

Health care was the main point of discussion on TV last night.

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) and Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI) played "Hardball" 2/22 p.m.

Connolly, on whether Obama has a plan: "I think he does have a plan. I think he's made a real nod toward the Republican and to the moderate critics of what was in the House plan and some elements in the Senate plan. I think he's laid his cards on the table, and I think it's time for everybody else to do the same."

McCotter, on GOPers: "I think we're increasingly concerned that when you have the president negotiating with himself what type of bill he can meld between a bad House bill and a bad Senate bill, you see talk of reconciliation, and you hear talk of taking Republican ideas, putting them onto this bill, which still would not render it, in our mind, necessarily helpful, what you're looking at is a great concern that we're being set up to be blamed for the process of reconciliation, which Senator Reid, again, has already said is likely in the cards."

After the jump, more on health care from other pols and pundits.

Good Tuesday morning. You know it's been a cold winter when a 50 degree day in late Feb. feels tropical.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

SEN. SCOTT BROWN: He's a hero of the right, having captured a seat that had been in Dem hands since the '50s. But Scott Brown faces the same challenges every senator does -- namely, he has to face voters to keep his seat. Making Brown's job even more difficult, he will ask MA voters to send him to DC for 6 years when his seat comes up in '12, the same year Pres. Obama will likely run up a big margin in his state at the top of the ticket.

Brown is the hot new "it" kid in politics, temporarily replacing VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), who also has his fans. But in a sign he recognizes the danger he faces in '12, Brown appears willing to vote with Dems -- as he promised during his campaign this year -- in order to keep a fighting chance at winning a full term. Brown was one of 5 GOPers who voted to advance a $15B jobs bill yesterday, a vote that won't win him friends among the most conservative set.

Brown joined Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO), Susan Collins (R-ME), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and George Voinovich (R-OH) in handing Dems the victory. Whether Brown begins voting like his colleagues from ME, who are roundly disliked by the conservative establishment, may determine whether he gets a full term in '12 -- and loses his conservative sheen.

SENATE MAJ. LEADER HARRY REID: The jobs bill Brown voted for wasn't the one most people thought would get to the floor. But Reid scrapped an initial agreement between Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) that more GOPers backed -- even though, ironically, the price tag was almost 6 times as high.

Pres. Obama has been promoting bipartisanship, or post-partisanship, since well before he entered the WH. Admin officials even touted the GOP proposals, specifically those targeting waste, fraud and abuse, that made it into their new health care proposal. But few voters see any progress in the way DC works, meaning Obama won't be able to claim credit for changing the way the country does business.

IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) says he isn't pursuing a WH'12 bid, but he isn't doing anything to tamp down on speculation, either.

"There isn't anything to tell, except that lots and lots of people have said, 'Please, don't just, don't say never, never, never,'" Daniels told National Journal eds. and reporters this p.m. during a wide-ranging roundtable discussion for the new "Governor Exclusives" series.

Daniels stressed that he hasn't been taking any of the preliminary steps that WH candidates usually take in anticipation of a bid, such as setting up a PAC, even as he noted the strong encouragement he's received from supporters.

"I'm not trying to be cute here," Daniels said. "I don't know any other way to say it. If you watch what we do, you won't see any PACs, you won't see any forays into any primary states. I've got my head down on the job I'm assigned to do, and there's some probability of getting a few more very fulfilling things done there."

Daniels, a popular gov. whose term expires in '12, has been floated as a possible WH contender. He coasted to a second term in '08 with 58% of the vote, a strong showing in a year when Pres. Obama eked out a narrow 50%-49% victory in his state over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Over the weekend, Daniels indicated to Washington Post's Balz that he'd been persuaded by supporters, including George W. Bush, not to close the door on a potential bid.

Daniels kept that door ajar today. Asked whether he's "saying never" to a bid, Daniels responded, "I sure tried." He recalled that someone once advised him, "Look, I get it this isn't what you're going to do. But don't say that, because as long as you don't, people will pay more attention to what you really want."

He said that he's seen Bush "once in maybe two to three years," but that the former pres.'s advice did not play a major role in his thinking.

In National Journal's recent Insiders Poll of GOPers, Daniels tied ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) for fifth place among a list rife with govs. and ex-govs. Asked why he thought the top WH '12 contenders have tended to be state execs., Daniels said that there was "probably some sense that there weren't a lot of options in Washington." He also emphasized that he believes the question of "what" is more important than "who" for the GOP right now.

"Although it's natural and it's fun to play the 'who' game ... the important task for our party right now is the 'what' question," Daniels said. "We need to decide what it is we have to offer America in a positive way."

"The really important task of the next year or so -- and really, the only one I really want to try to have some little hand in -- is thinking through what we might propose to America that is credible, if enacted, and that one hopes can be framed in a way that people will understand and support it," he added, noting that if GOPers figure out the "what" question, the "who" question "will sort itself out fine."

In a sign the state of the KY SEN race isn't what he hoped it would be, KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) used his first 30-second spot to attack his rival over divergent stances on coal.

Grayson's team uses footage of an appearance in which ophthalmologist Rand Paul calls coal a "dirty and one of the "least favorable" forms of energy.

"I'll fight against Obama's war on coal, for clean coal and for Kentucky jobs," Grayson tells the camera.

Dems in the Bluegrass State have fought over coal, too. LG Daniel Mongiardo (D), who hails from the eastern, and very rural, part of the state, has painted himself as much more pro-coal, while he depicts AG Jack Conway (D) as in favor of cap and trade legislation.

As ">we wrote back in Nov.: The coal industry plays an outsized role in KY, even though it accounts for less than 1% of the jobs in the state. But it's an issue that pits Mongiardo's base of rural Dems squarely against Conway's urban Dems.

Ex-state Sen./ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) isn't the runaway favorite in the GOP field vying to face Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, but she's starting to look like the frontrunner.

Lowden has raised more than her GOP rivals, according to FEC reports, and she is near the front in public polls, leading or only narrowly trailing better-known businessman/'06 Sec/State nominee Danny Tarkanian (R) by just a few points; a new survey for an NV retailers association by noted GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies shows Lowden leading 35%-28%, with other candidates splitting 13% of the vote.

She is also the first GOPer up with TV ads, though wealthy ex-investment banker John Chachas (R) will join her on air shortly.

So, has Lowden taken a clear lead? NV political analyst Jon Ralston isn't sold yet, but says Lowden's early performance has the establishment GOP taking note.

"[I'm] not sure I would call her the clear frontrunner," Ralston said in an email. "What I do think is fair is that she is seen as the best of a second-tier lot by the DC GOP types."

That second-tier group has frustrated some GOPers. Lowden, Tarkanian, Chachas and ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) are not the quality candidates national GOPers hoped to attract for their bid to capture a one of their prime pickup targets.

Lowden looks the strongest on paper; she has won a difficult race before, and she's willing to invest heavily in her own campaign. What's more, Reid's campaign has targeted her early, suggesting they are most worried by the threat she poses.

But Tarkanian remains well-known around the state. Chachas has put $1.3M into his own campaign and promises to write bigger checks in the future. And Angle, who is a favorite of the very conservative set in the state, has won a series of early straw polls, which suggest her strength among activists could go farther than the less-than-impressive money she has raised.

Regardless of which candidate wins the state's June 8 primary, the GOP may have something else to worry about. Businessman Jon Ashjian has filed to run as a representative of the Tea Party, and the new poll shows he takes serious support away from the front-running GOPers.

Lowden leads Reid by a 42%-37% margin, with Ashjian taking 9%, the survey shows. Tarkanian is ahead by a single point, 40%-39%, with Ashjian at 11%. Before Ashjian made the ballot, both GOPers were much closer to 50%.

The survey, conducted Feb. 15-16, polled 500 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.38%.

In a conversation with National Journal's Brian Friel, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) said that if the election were held this weekend, Pennsylvania Democrats would lose some House seats. For more of his thoughts on Democrats, and an interview with Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire, visit National Journal's Governor Exclusives.

Updated at 5:41 p.m.

With little fanfare from Dems, the Credit CARD Act goes into effect today, 8 months after it passed Congress by wide margins. But despite a renewed commitment to better communicate their party's accomplishments from last year, Dems haven't had much to say about it.

"The successes of this year are going to ring true," DSCC chair Bob Menendez told National Journal in late Dec. Later in that same interview, Menendez counted the credit card legislation as one of his party's achievements. The DSCC has yet to announce any activity to promote the law going into effect today.

Pres. Obama, busy rolling out his health care proposal and meeting with the nation's govs, is not scheduled to take part in any events today highlighting the credit card bill and the WH did not respond to a request for comment about it. Via the WH press office, Obama did issue a statement on the matter this morning: "The new rules are an unprecedented step in my administration's ongoing efforts to strengthen consumer protections and enact meaningful financial reform."

Consumer advocates, however, are paying closer attention. The U.S. Public Interest Research Group lauded the bill as an important step forward, while emphasizing that the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency is what's really needed to safeguard consumers.

"It's very simple," said Ed Mierzwinski, PIRG's consumer program director, in a press conference late last week. "The historic new law stops the worst current credit card tricks, but without a new sheriff to enforce it, banks will invent new tricks."

Still, if PIRG, with its close ties to Ralph Nader, is the only one making the Dem case on one of the party's biggest accomplishments from last year, it's not likely a message that will get out to voters.

Update: DSCC Chairman Menendez, in conjunction with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-NY, and consumer interest groups, held a news conference in New York today to highlight the enactment of the credit CARD act. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AK) and Chris Dodd (D-CT) sent out press releases lauding the achievement.

A prominent and wealthy group of GOP heavyweights are unveiling 2 new groups aimed at revitalizing the party's policy offerings, then pay for ads to spread the message.

The American Action Forum, a 501(c)(3) group, will act as a policy forum, while the American Action Network, a 501(c)(4) organization, will fund ads and other outreach. Doug Holtz-Eakin, the former CBO director and GOP strategist, will head the forum, while Rob Collins, a former top aide to Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), will head the more politically-oriented network.

Ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who lost his seat in '08 and who held a top post at the Republican Jewish Coalition, will serve as the Network's CEO.

The groups will try and replicate the success of the Center for American Progress, the left-leaning think tank founded by ex-Clinton CoS John Podesta in '03. CAP now plays a significant role in Dem policy circles, and Podesta -- who headed Pres. Obama's transition team -- is widely viewed as one of the more influential thinkers in the party.

And as tensions between Congressional leaders and the RNC continue to bubble just under the surface, the forum and the network could play a more critical role in this year's elections. As major donors look for a trustworthy depository for their campaign contributions, outside groups with well-known figures controlling the purse strings will begin to play a key role in distributing the GOP's message.

The American Action Forum and Network will start its life with some big names to attract those donations. Ex-Sens. Coleman, George Allen (R-VA) and Mel Martinez (R-FL), ex-Reps. Jim Nussle (R-IA), Tom Reynolds (R-NY) and Susan Moliarni (R-NY) and major GOP donors Fred Malek, Isaac Applbaum, Dylan Glenn and Gregory Slayton will all serve on the board. Top GOP strategist Maria Cino and ex-Amb. C. Boyden Gray are also board members.

The board will gather this afternoon at the National Press Club to unveil their '10 midterm plans.

MD Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is riding high in the polls, but he says he is prepared for a tough re-election battle, potentially against the GOP foe he defeated 4 years ago.

"Every 4 years, those of us who volunteer to serve volunteer to be judged, and so we've assumed that we will have a very tough race given the tough nature of the economy," O'Malley told Hotline OnCall in an interview this weekend. "Anyone who is in office will undergo intense scrutiny in these midterms because we haven't had an economic contraction like this since the great depression."

Asked if he was worried about the prospects of facing ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) this Nov., O'Malley said "worried" isn't a good word.

"I'm not worried," he said. "Whether it's the former governor, whom we defeated by 6 1/2 points 4 years ago, or whether it's someone else, we anticipate it will be a very vigorous campaign."

The most recent public survey shows O'Malley leading Ehrlich by a 48%-39% margin -- meaning the incumbent isn't over the key 50% mark, but that he retains a healthy lead in a heavily blue state.

The WH today made public their "opening bid" in advance of a planned health care summit on Thursday, offering a plan they said would provide the largest middle class tax cut for health care in history while holding health insurance companies responsible for significant rate hikes.

The proposal would eliminate a compromise negotiated to win Sen. Ben Nelson's (D-NE) vote will giving federal funding to states as they expand Medicaid. It would close the so-called "donut hole" in coverage of prescription drugs, establish a new government board to review rate increases and raise the threshold for a tax on the most expensive health care plans.

The bill incorporates some GOP ideas and others, like the new federal oversight agency, that didn't make the Senate bill, said Nancy-Ann DeParle, director of the WH office of health reform. Though she said she has a "high degree of confidence" that the measure will be deficit-neutral, she said the CBO will make the final determination on costs.

The WH plan estimates $75B in cost savings while raising an additional $10B through fees on branded pharmaceutical products. The WH has also incorporated several GOP ideas to reduce waste, fraud and abuse, DeParle said.

In a conference call with reporters, WH officials said they aimed to resolve differences between the House and Senate health reform bills. Working off the Senate bill, the WH is posting significant changes it would like to see, rather than starting the process anew, as GOPers had urged.

"Starting from scratch doesn't make sense. However, we are coming to this meeting with an open mind to additional ideas, and we hope the Republicans will do the same," WH communications director Dan Pfeiffer said. "If the Republicans bring good ideas to the table, we will look for ways to incorporate those ideas."

Meanwhile, amid calls from liberals for Dems to use the reconciliation process to bypass a promised GOP filibuster, Pfeiffer said no decision has been made.

"We have made no determinations on which process to move forward with," Pfeiffer said. "The president expects and believes the American people deserve and up or down vote on health reform and our proposal is designed to give ourselves maximum flexibility to ensure that we can get an up or down vote if the opposition decides to take the extraordinary step of filibustering health reform."

Pfeiffer urged GOPers to offer their own plan, proposing to put it on the WH website alongside Obama's plan. Though GOPers have said they are wary about Thursday's summit at Blair House, Pfeiffer also said the WH is looking forward to an "open, honest, substantive discussion where both parties get off their talking points."

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) has avoided hugging Pres. Obama lately, but on Monday he again embraced the WH's largest single accomplishment in its first year -- a position that has Crist facing the biggest challenge of his political career.

Appearing on MSNBC this morning, Crist defended his position on the economic stimulus bill. He defended appearing with Obama at a rally in Ft. Myers last Feb. while casting his rival, ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), as someone with little fiscal restraint.

"Not in the least. It was the right thing to do," Crist said this morning when asked whether he regretted backing the stimulus. "We needed the money. That's why every Republican governor in the country took the money."

Indeed, though most GOP govs opposed the stimulus bill and a few, like SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R), then-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), publicly explored rejecting some of the funds, each state eventually took their share of the cash.

Crist said although he is concentrating on governing his state, he is confident he will beat Rubio in the state's Aug. 24 primary. Crist's optimism comes despite the latest public polling, which shows Rubio leading Crist for the first time.

The 2 will meet for a debate on Mar. 28 on "Fox News Sunday," the respective campaigns announced on Friday. Rubio has rejected a potential Mar. 7 debate on "Meet The Press," saying Fox should get the first debate over NBC.

Speaking of "the hug," by the way, Crist didn't go for a repeat performance at a formal dinner at the WH last night. Crist sat at a back-row table with Jindal, AR Gov. Mike Beebe (D) and Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner -- "well beyond hugging range," according to pool reporter Todd Gillman of the Dallas Morning News.

Good Monday morning. How about Bode Miller redeeming himself after falling so short in Torino? Going into week 2 of the Olympics, the U.S. has to be pleased with its lead in the medal count.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make headlines today:

PRES. OBAMA: Days before Obama meets with Congressional leaders at Blair House for the C-SPAN summit, the WH will unveil their version of a health care reform package this morning at 10 a.m. The package is expected to include new government checks on excessive rate hikes by insurance companies, a provision that had not existed in either the House or Senate versions of the bill. It follows a big rate hike by a CA insurer which sparked outrage when it was announced several weeks ago.

Though health care has been the albatross Dems have struggled against over the last 6 months -- polling in MA showed Sen. Scott Brown (R) got a boost after the Christmas Eve vote to move legislation forward -- the party is doubling down on their efforts to pass something. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) has led the charge to breathe new life into the public option, and Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has signaled he backs the effort.

Obama's new version of health care overhaul is a recognition that the WH played too much of a hands-off game over the past year. After Bill Clinton's admin micromanaged the health care process to ill effect, Obama's team over-learned the lesson and gave Congress too much power, and too little guidance. This new effort to strike the right balance between guidance and recognition of Congress's powers could be Obama's last attempt to move reform forward in a meaningful way.

LIBERALS: Obama's base has been as much of a thorn in his side as GOPers have been. They agitated for the public option, they find themselves at odds with more conservative factions of the Dem caucus and now they're questioning the wisdom of Dems' next big-ticket item, a $15B jobs package. The AFL-CIO, the NAACP and La Raza have warned Dems that Reid's version of a second stimulus isn't big enough to have an impact on the economy.

In fact, Reid's bill isn't as big as one that appeared to earn bipartisan support. An agreement between Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) would have spent $85B to provide a jolt to the economy. House Dems have proposed a $154B jobs package, while the outside coalition of groups is preparing its own package that would cost much more, The Hill reports.

A week after Pres. Obama raised money for him at 2 receptions in Denver, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) is getting fundraising help from ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean's (D) political wing.

Democracy for America, the extension of Dean's '04 WH campaign, is asking backers of a public health care option to give to Bennet's campaign after Bennet spearheaded a new push for the controversial proposal.

Last week, Bennet penned a letter supporting using reconciliation to breathe new life into the public option. Bennet, who faces a primary challenge from ex-CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) before what promises to be a competitive race against the eventual GOP nominee, has gathered support from 20 senators, including Sens. Arlen Specter (D-PA), Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

DFA also hailed Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, who signaled his support for using budget reconciliation to get around GOP opposition to a public option.

"We need to show Sen. Bennet we have his back -- and encourage him to stay strong and keep leading -- by contributing $5 to his 2010 campaign right now," DFA political director Charles Chamberlain writes in a solicitation on Bennet's behalf. "The public option fight is not over."

The link in the email urges donations to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who could also face a primary challenge from ex-Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN). DFA calls Ford a "Wall Street Democrat."

Bennet raised at least $700K during the 2 fundraisers with Obama last week. It was part of Obama's first big campaign swing of the year; later that day, he raised money for the DNC at a private residence in Las Vegas, then held an event with Reid, who faces his own tough re-election bid.

There were plenty of House challengers milling around CPAC this weekend, but only Allen West (R) -- an African-American ret. Colonel running an underdog campaign in S. FL -- was given the honor of speaking to attendees.

West, who held Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL) to 55% in '08, has been named to the NRCC's "Young Guns" program, and has already raised $1.2M for a re-match this year. But while West is a solid challenger, Klein will be a tough out. He was caught a bit off guard in '08, and West won't get that benefit this year. Pres. Obama took the CD with 52%, meaning this isn't the most fertile territory.

But West has an interesting story to tell, and his profile means his bid will get plenty of media attention.

In his CPAC address on Saturday, West recounted his upbringing in GA, and the conservative values that his parents instilled in him.

He also told of attending services every Sunday at the local Methodist church, and appeared to compare his experience there to Pres. Obama's. West, on his pastors: "I don't recall a single time when they cursed our country."

But he added that the dreams of his parents "are being challenged" by the "collective ideology of the liberal progressives."

"When you understand their dream, it's more of a nightmare because it's the antithesis of who we are as Americans," said West. "They are bringing forth the nightmare of Marx, of Engels, of Chairman Mao, of Fidel Castro, of Che Guevara, of Hugo Chavez. ... They are bringing a dream that is enslaving the American people."

To sustained applause, West ended his speech by asking the crowd to "join me in a new dream ... to take our country back."

With a continued strong fundraising effort, and a bit of luck, that effort could start by taking a Dem-leaning S. FL House seat back.

FL Dems, though, attempted to raise questions about West's participation at the conference, which was co-sponsored by the John Birch Society. "This organization has been known for its anti-Semitic views and a strong opposition to civil liberties. The fact they are co-sponsoring this conference is outrageous," FL Dem spokesperson Eric Jotkoff wrote in a statement. "By his appearance and association with this conference, the people of South Florida deserve to know if Allen West supports the policies and positions of the John Birch Society?"

OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D) told reporters Saturday he believes this year's legislative quagmire in DC will play a role in his bid for re-election in '10, further evidence that Dems recognize the danger they face in a nationalized midterm election.

"If I win, I will thank those who helped me. If I lose, I will certainly not blame others for that loss, but I do believe what happens in Washington has a direct effect within our individual states, whether it is politically or in terms of the economy of our states," said Strickland.

Strickland underscored the importance of passing health care for Dem candidates in '10. He knows whereof he speaks; the "failure to address the health care issue" was a major factor when he lost his House seat in '94. "I don't think the American people reward failure or perceived failure," he said.

Citing shortfalls in the current system, need, and state budgetary concerns as the most important reasons for Congress to act on the health care bill, Strickland added that there are also political implications, saying "if you're speaking only politically, I think that that's also important that we have action on health care."

MD Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) was more measured in his appraisal of the correlation between DC and his race as he stressed the importance of leadership and "a framework for the future."

"People will differentiate between national politics or on state politics, their mayors and the county governments," said O'Malley. "But to the degree that we can be effective as a party at all levels of government, certainly makes our argument a lot stronger. And that's why, we're, all of us, we're very desirous of seeing a Democratic Congress move forward."

In Washington this weekend to take part in the '10 NGA Winter Meeting, the 2 were joined at a press conference this afternoon by DGA chair/DE Gov. Jack Markell and WA Gov. Christine Gregoire (D).

The economy was the dominant topic at the press conference, as the govs stressed the importance of job creation and freeing up lending to small businesses. Markell praised Pres. Obama's work on the economy, but cautioned that work remains. "It's time for Washington to pass a common sense jobs bill, with measures we can all agree to" said Markell.

Conservatives young and old are headed home after 3 days of boistrous speeches, endowed with a renewed sense of optimism as they head toward electoral gains this Nov.

But some are leaving DC in better shape than others. Here, Hotline OnCall's winners and losers from CPAC '10:

WINNERS

The Tea Party Movement: Virtually every speaker paid homage to a movement that remains loosely defined, praising fiscal restraint and a renewed energy among activists protesting the Obama admin's policies. The media had fun interviewing the guy in the tri-cornered hat and "Don't Tread On Me" flag, but GOP leaders are doing their best to incorporate, and kowtow to, the movement. Anyone who can show they lead a local Tea Party group is leaving CPAC with an enormous sense of power, and the GOP is all too happy oblige.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney: He didn't win the CPAC straw poll, but Romney came in second place to a contender no one believes is serious about running in WH'12 -- Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). Romney gave a well-regarded speech that fired up the crowd more than most of his potential '12 rivals, and his showing, 3 times more than ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), demonstrates he still has a following among the influential group of activists.

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio: He kicked off the conference in front of a packed house, and he did one of the hardest things in politics; he met expectations. Rubio is the darling of a conservative movement bent as much on defeating moderate GOPers as on defeating Dems, and his Thursday speech cemented his standing as the most likely conservative to beat FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), who activists see as a centrist.

The Bush Admin: Last year, it was hard to find a speech in which the newly-former pres. or his team were mentioned. Now, while polls don't show a dramatic reversal in Bush's popularity or in that of ex-VP Dick Cheney, at least some GOPers, like Romney, publicly defended the old guard. Cheney's surprise appearance on Thursday even got a standing ovation. CPAC speakers did bash Bush's spending policies, but they don't see him as the albatross he once was.

Calvin Coolidge: We kid, we kid. The nation's 30th pres. is a big favorite of Fox News host Glenn Beck, one of the real winners at this year's CPAC. Beck is seen as on par with Rush Limbaugh, according to the CPAC straw poll, which has to be good news for his marketing team, and his Saturday p.m. speech brought the crowd to its feet repeatedly -- even though he mentioned vomit 4 times.

After the jump, the losers at this week's confab.

Fox News Channel's Glenn Beck gave the final speech at CPAC this weekend, drawing to a close the 3-day conference before a packed and excited house.

Speaking to a capacity audience at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington, DC, Beck said it was "such an honor" to give the same address Rush Limbaugh gave in '09, and to address the same conference Ronald Reagan did during his time in the WH.

Said Beck: "Here I am today, and I cannot believe it. It's been a tough year for you, hasn't it? I mean, if you're down to me, it's a tough year."

Beck also recalled Reagan's use of the phrase "morning in America" from one of his TV campaign ads. "It is still morning in America, said Beck. "It's shaping up to be sort of a nasty day, but it's still morning in America." Beck blamed "progressivism" in both parties as the "cancer" in U.S. politics.

"It's big government, and we need to address it as if it is a cancer," Beck said, on the other issues facing politics. "You must eradicate it. ... We need big thinkers and brave people, with spines, who can make the case [that] ... it's going to be hard, but it's going to be ok. We're going to make it."

"It's not enough to not suck as much as the other side," said Beck, on how Republicans can regain their ideals. "The first step to redemption is admitting you have a problem. ... When they do say they have a problem, I don't know if I believe them. ... They've got to recognize they have a problem. ... 'I'm addicted to spending and big government.'"

Dispatches From CPAC

Beck has become a star among conservatives since debuting his highly popular Fox News show. A poll of CPAC attendees showed he has favorable numbers equal to Limbaugh's -- both men are viewed positively by 70% of those surveyed and negatively by 27%.

Beck, on GOPers admitting they've gotten caught up in excessive gov't spending: "I'd like for one of them to stand up and say that."

Beck went on to compare GOPers to Tiger Woods, who recently gave his first public apology for his cheating candal. Beck said some people believed he was only sorry because he got caught. Beck, to GOPers in Congress: "You got caught. Are you sorry?"

"America is not a clown show. America is not a circus. America is an idea ... that sets people free. I'm tired, and I know you are. I'm tired of common sense not applying anymore. We all know what the problems are. It's tax and spend."

More Beck: "One party will tax and spend. The other party won't tax, but spend. It's both of them together. I'm tired of feeling like a freak in America."

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) won the '10 CPAC straw poll by a wide margin, demonstrating that the WH'08 contender who generated big crowds still has a significant grassroots following.

Paul captured 31% of the vote, which came from just under 2,400 voters casting ballots over 2 days. Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who had won the last 3 CPAC straw polls, came in second, with 22% of the vote.

Paul's win is a blow to other possible WH'12 contenders, including Romney, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin, who finished 3rd with 7%, and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who finished 4th with 6%. Still, the crowd booed when Paul's win was announced, while every other contender won applause. Paul's victory will allow other candidates to dismiss the results and look ahead to next year's contest.

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) and ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich each won 5%, while ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee won 4% of the vote. IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) each took 2%, while MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) clocked in at just 1%.

Still, 53% of voters said they wish the GOP had a better field of potential candidates. Last year, a majority of voters said they were satisfied with the the current crop of candidates, pollster Tony Fabrizio said.

The straw poll is widely seen as an early test of organizing ability in advance of the WH'12 campaign. Though representatives of most candidates on the ballot insisted they had not pushed to win votes, sources said Romney's and Pawlenty's organizers had worked to get their supporters to cast ballots.

Campaign for Liberty, a group that backs Paul, also aggressively pushed their backers to vote for Paul.

But this year's results aren't likely to thin the WH field. Next year's CPAC straw poll, when the midterm elections will be safely in the rearview mirror, will be seen as the first major test of organizational strength.

Paul's support in '08 came in some part from college students. CPAC attendees are largely younger, and 48% of attendees said they were still students.

But while the sense of optimism at this weekend's convention was palpable, attendees are not completely thrilled with the GOP. 37% said they were dissatisfied with GOP leaders in Congress, the poll showed, and RNC chair Michael Steele had a net-negative rating -- just 42% have a favorable view of the RNC chair, while 56% see him unfavorably.

"They should not take this movement for granted by any stretch of the imagination," Fabrizio said.

A group of Iraq War vets turned House candidates are banding together in '10 for what they hope will be a "surge" on Capitol Hill, and the candidates are unhappy with how both parties have handled national security issues.

"I want Congress to stop being disingenuous about (the Iraq War) and just put it out there," Army vet/SC-01 candidate Katherine Jenerette (R) said in an interview at CPAC today. "We need to be honest with the American people about why we are where we are and that we're going to be there indefinitely, or at least we're going to have a footprint there indefinitely."

Jenerette said she was "not happy" with the Bush admin.'s approach to national security issues. "Any soldier knows we didn't go to Iraq for democracy," she said.

But that doesn't mean these vets are pleased with the Obama admin. Army vet/VA-08 candidate Patrick Murray (R) said in an interview at CPAC today that he supported Pres. Obama's decision to send additional troops to Iraq, but he called Obama's troop pull-out plan a "signal of weakness."

Murray is also concerned about how the Obama admin. is dealing with captured alleged terrorists, specifically alleged Christmas Day bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab -- a campaign trail message GOPers have latched on to in recent weeks. "We didn't even both to ask this guy about what else is in the pipeline," Murray said. "That is unconscionable."

The candidates said voters have been receptive to their backgrounds in the military. "We're starting to see the American people look for individuals who have put their lives on the line," Army vet/FL-22 candidate Allen West (R) said. "We're going to bring back that sense of commitment to the American people."

"People know I'm a strong leader, and that's something they look in for in political leadership just like they look for in their military leadership," Murray said.

Jenerette, Murray and West are supported by Iraq Veterans for Congress, a PAC that is supporting about 25 conservative GOP veterans running for Congress in '10. Not surprisingly, the group is touting the victory of Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), a National Guard member, in explaining why conservative Iraq War vets will be successful this year.

Of the candidates the group backs, many are not considered front-runners in their GOP primaries, much less favorites to beat Dems. But some, like West, ex-US Atty/AR-01 candidate Tim Griffin (R), ex-state Sen./NV-02 candidate Joe Heck (R), IL-11 nominee Adam Kinzinger (R), construction exec./AZ-08 candidate Jesse Kelly (R), state Sen./OH-15 candidate Steve Stivers (R) and GOP activist/ID-01 contender Vaughn Ward (R) are all members of the NRCC's "Young Guns" program.

Dispatches From CPAC

In a fiery CPAC speech this afternoon, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich called on conservative activists to defeat the "secular socialist agenda" of the Obama admin or risk the very future of America.

Gingrich addressed the packed auditorium as a conquering hero, entering to "Eye of the Tiger." The enthusiastic crowd gave him a standing ovation as he glad-handed his way to the stage, entering through the audience rather than from the wings, as other speakers this week have done.

Gingrich called for a "principled bipartisanship," but put the blame for deadlock in DC squarely on Obama and Congressional Dems. Gingrich, like many CPAC speakers, compared the current admin. to the Soviet Union.

"I believe that we are in a struggle over whether or not we're going to save America," Gingrich said. "I believe the radical left is a secular socialist machine so dedicated to the destruction of the values of America.... that it is antithetical to the survival of America as a prosperous healthy country based on sound principles."

Gingrich argued that all of the recent crises "are not economic, they're cultural." He said Americans need to spend within their means, and said the government over the last 20 years has encouraged families to buy homes even if they couldn't afford it. He called for a balanced budget amendment, and cited the budgets of the '90s as an example.

Gingrich said the corruption of unions in government is part of the reason for DC's ineptness. He cited the NYC teacher unions as an example, as an audience member yelled "Down with the NEA."

"I know from a Chicago-Springfield background that it's hard to grasp that honesty can be part of government." Gingrich joked. "But time has come to tell the truth about the corruption of the government employee unions of this country."

He blasted Dems for secrecy during the health care debate, and called for an open amendment and conference process. He said GOPers should attend next week's WH health care summit, but go armed with their own agenda and demand the health care legislation process begin anew.

He thinks GOPers will win control of both the House and the Senate at the end of this year, and promised that the country will elect a new president in '12. But Gingrich warned that "history doesn't stand by" until then.

"If we are going to have three years in which the President, Reid and Pelosi become isolated," Gingrich said. "We can't just sit back and hope people are just going to let us wait. We can't go on recess. We have to have the courage to stand up and say we know what we believe, we know what American people believe, we know what is good for America's future."

Gingrich is on the '10 CPAC presidential straw poll ballot, results of which will be announced at 5:30 this evening. Gingrich was 5th with 10% of the vote in '09. During his speech today he had kind words for both ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who both spoke earlier this week and are also straw poll contenders.

Businessman Steven Welch (R) dropped his primary bid against Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA 06) today, ending what could've been a very bloody, and damaging, contest to hold Gerlach's suburban CD.

In announcing the news, Welch endorsed Gerlach, according to pa2010. "For me to fight hard right now would do more harm than good," Welch told Chester Co. GOPers at their nominating convo. "For that reason, I am withdrawing. We have a chance to send Jim Gerlach back to Congress to lead the way forward."

Dems had counted on Welch -- who had $650K CoH at the end of the year -- inflicting serious damage on Gerlach's right during the primary. Indeed, with the $650K he injected of his own cash into the race, Welch was considered the early favorite for the open seat nod before Gerlach dropped out of the GOV race to run for re-election.

But Gerlach worked hard when he re-entered the race for his old seat to establish himself as the undisputed leader. In early Feb., he announced that his camp raised over $500K in the three weeks since he dropped his GOV bid. And earlier this week, Gerlach's camp released a poll showing him with a huge, 71-6% lead over Welch in the primary.

Now that his path toward the nomination is basically clear, Gerlach will be able to conserve his resources for a general against what could be a well-funded Dem. Still, Gerlach will have the advantage in a CD he's managed to tenuously hold for four terms.

HEMPSTEAD, NY -- Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) struck a defiant tone this morning as he addressed the "false rumors" and "innuendo" against him as he officially kicked off his campaign at Hofstra Univ. in Long Island.

Introduced by NY Dem chair Jay Jacobs and Hempstead Mayor Wayne Hall, Paterson told the standing-room only crowd at the multi-purpose room of the student center at his alma mater that "after all you have heard, there is one rumor I will confirm: I am running for governor this year and I will win this year."

Confusion began when Paterson first entered the hall at 9:47 a.m., prior to any introductions. He and his team headed down an aisle on the stage-right side of the room only to turn around about half way through after being mobbed by photographers, videographers and other members of the media.

He then stood near the entrance and left the room moments before the program's first speaker took to the microphone.

The hundreds of people who attended the rally were considerably older than the student populace at Hofstra, despite the university setting. They held signs like "We Luv Our Gov" and started chanting "Da-vid! Da-vid!" when he formally entered.

With his wife Paige standing to his right, Paterson accused opponents of wanting to "delay," "deny" and "destroy" him and his proposals, "but they haven't knocked us down yet and they never will." He made direct appeals to some of the Dem Party's core constituent groups, including blacks, gays, the poor and unions while assailing special interests, the state legislature and media.

"They will not knock down an old gay couple from Buffalo, who was wondering why they have to explain why the want to get married and aches for the opportunity to be that way," he said at one point. "

"I've had a very difficult last couple of weeks," Paterson admitted, adding that "innuendo" and "false rumors can leave a long and lasting effect, and it's no surprise that this comes in the middle of a budget process when special interests have a lot to lose, and at the beginning of a campaign when other candidates will do anything to win."

He said that he realized "this is not about me, this is about the people of New York, and I will always put the people first" before stringing together a litany of "I put the people first when..." statements. He honed in on how he handled the state's economic crisis, extended unemployment insurance, and expanded "the role of minority and women-owned businesses," saying that their purchasing power "sextupled."

"Now sextupled means 6 times," Paterson said. "Let's not get that confused with any rumors because that is the truth."

Dispatches From CPAC

BigGovernment.com's Andrew Breitbart assailed the mainstream media today at CPAC, kicking off the convo's third day with a combative, defiant speech that brought many in the early-a.m. crowd to their feet.

"Look, mainstream media the gig is up," Breitbart said. "You're not on the American team. You're on the progressive team."

Breitbart, the author and commentator who posted the undercover ACORN videos made by conservative filmmakers James O'Keefe and Hannah Giles, decried the mainstream media for focusing more on the filmmakers themselves than on the controversy they uncovered at the organization.

"Instead of investigating ACORN, you're investigating us," Breitbart said. "We're onto your tactics. It's over."

He linked the ACORN controversy to Dems' spate of electoral defeats in recent months, reminding Dems that "we are now 6 months into this ACORN thing, and you just lost in New Jersey and Massachusetts and in Virginia."

"And your Alinsky tactics to try and destroy Hannah and James and me, bring it on!" he added, receiving a standing ovation from many in the hall.

Breitbart skewered academia, lamenting the fact that he wasn't allowed to read Mark Twain in his college American Studies class -- he attended Tulane Univ. -- because Twain was "racist." He took aim at "the elitists on the coasts," chiding them for their "nihilistic world view" and telling the CPAC crowd, "they're not too hot on you guys."

At one point, he referred to a passage from a recent New York Times article describing the Frankfurt School of philosophers, who "emigrated from Nazi Germany and became dyspeptic critics of American culture." He equated those "depressive" philosophers, some of whom "landed in Southern California where they were disturbed by the consumer culture and the gospel of relentless cheeriness," to current-day mainstream media elites.

"I swear, at night when I watch MSNBC, and I go, 'I don't understand where these East Coast people who have so much money, who go out every single night, running around town, having the best life in the world in the best country in the world, can go to work, put their pants on and complain about this country," Breitbart said.

"I'm not asking for these people to be relentlessly cheerful," he added, "but grateful every now and then would be pretty nice."

Dispatches From CPAC

Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) used some of the starkest language heard all week at CPAC to describe the U.S. war on terror as a war with "Islamists," winning loud applause from an early morning crowd on the conference's final day.

"We will be safer when we are honest with the American public, that we are not at war with terrorists, as George W. Bush would say, or, what is it, man-made disasters, as this administration would put it," Santorum said. "We are at war with Islamists."

"Not Muslims, not all Muslims," Santorum added. "But those who are committed to destroying the United States and Western civilization."

Santorum pointed to the Quadrennial Defense Review, a report the Pentagon releases every 4 years that examines the challenges and threats to the U.S. The report had "not one mention of the word 'Islam' or 'Muslim,'" Santorum said, but spent 8 pages on threats posed by climate change.

He blamed a culture of political correctness, which he described as pervasive even through the military. Santorum said he didn't agree with some GOPers who place their complete trust in military generals. "I'm not too sure that we haven't indoctrinated the officer corps," he said.

Santorum, who lost his '06 re-election bid to Sen. Bob Casey (D), offered harsh criticism of his own party. Activists, he said, can use the positive political environment to elect true conservatives to office this year.

"Conservatism didn't fail America. Conservatives failed conservatism," Santorum said, to applause. "Now is your opportunity in these primaries to rally behind these conservative candidates, so when we do win in the fall, we will have conservatives who will take this country in a positive direction."

And, as some GOPers blame moderates for tarnishing the conservative brand, Santorum sought to make amends for endorsing Sen. Arlen Specter, then a moderate GOPer who became a Dem last year. Santorum pledged to "be working day and night" for ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

Santorum, whose name is on the CPAC straw poll, is actively considering a WH bid. He has contracted a general consultant and has had informal meetings with political professionals about his race.

But though the CPAC crowd is one Santorum should appeal to, he had bad luck in time slots. Santorum spoke early Saturday a.m., well after straw poll balloting had ended.

MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is so focused on the '10 midterms that he won't even rule out a WH'12 bid -- and he knows it.

"If, after these elections are over, there's anything to think about, I'll think about it again," Barbour told reporters at a Friday roundtable. After a reporter noted he hadn't ruled out a run, Barbour answered: "I think you're right."

"If you see I lose 40 pounds, you'll know I'm either running or got cancer," Barbour said.

In town for the NGA meetings, Barbour has taken time to meet with his political team at the RGA and to raise money for his PAC. National Journal reported this week Barbour will appear at a fundraiser tonight at BGR Group, the lobbying powerhouse he founded about 2 decades ago.

Barbour pointed to several GOV races he says GOPers have an excellent shot at winning next year, including against Dem incumbents in IA, OH and MA, where polling all shows the incumbents trailing GOPers. The party has a good chance to pick up some Dem open seats, and most of the GOP open seats -- in SC, AL, GA and SD -- are in states that have been good to the GOP.

And Barbour will have the money to do it. After banking $30M last year, Barbour said the RGA has already raised $13M in '10, giving the party a huge warchest as it prepares for elections in 3 dozen states.

He reiterated his belief that the GOP does not need to lay out a full platform yet -- something he first told your Hotline OnCall editor several weeks ago -- but he said the party needs a platform eventually.

"I would be working on an agenda today," Barbour said. "But I wouldn't have a platform today."

Dispatches From CPAC

Aiming to fire up GOPers for the rest of the '10 midterm cycle, Rep./GOP Study Cmte chair Tom Price (R-GA) went after Pres. Obama's agenda and predicted a GOP majority in the House after the '10 midterm election during a speech this afternoon.

"I stand here today wholly confident that next year we will be here at CPAC celebrating a conservative Republican majority in the House of Representatives," Price proclaimed.

Price praised the work of GOPers over the course of the last year, while forewarning that much remains to be done during the year ahead.

After citing accomplishments in the MA SEN special election and Tea Party movement as reasons for GOP optimism, Price launched into Obama, saying "his agenda is driving the nation off a cliff." Price also attacked Obama for spending last night for at a fundraiser in Las Vegas.

Embracing the charge that GOPers are the party of "no," Price said "we shout no because we know there is a better idea."

Price closed by calling for GOPers to take to the internet, radio, town halls and protests for a "return to common sense."

The RNC reported its best fundraising month under chairman Michael Steele in Jan., as it announced raising $10.5M. The cmte banked $9.4M at the end of the month.

"With another month of strong fundraising," Steele said in a statement, "we are confident and well positioned to continue winning this November and finally bring the American people the fiscally responsible and conservative governance they are demanding."

Last month was a very good fundraising month for all GOP cmtes. Bouyed by Scott Brown's (R) shocking MA SEN victory, the NRCC and NRSC reported their best fundraising months of the cycle.

Dispatches From CPAC

CA GOV candidate/Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and CA SEN candidate/Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) showed a united front as the CA GOP's truly "conservative" candidates for '10 at CPAC today during a panel hosted by CA GOP chair Ron Nehring.

"We're going to put together a new coalition of conservatives," Poizner said. "We're going to take our state back."

DeVore warned the audience that the entire nation should be concerned about CA's "liberalism" because "what starts in California spreads to the rest of the nation. Sometimes California gives good things like Proposition 13 and Ronald Reagan. Sometimes we give the nation bad things like Nancy Pelosi and Barbara Boxer."

But even though Poizner and DeVore presented themselves as general election candidates today ("I am Chuck DeVore, and I am running against Barbara Boxer," DeVore began his speech.), what are the chances they'll be on the ballot come November? Poizner is running far behind CA GOV candidate/ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) in polls, and DeVore is running behind CA SEN candidates ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R).

And this week, Whitman has completely disregarded Poizner as independent Dem groups have launched radio ads attacking Whitman. The Whitman camp has struck back at the Dems, tying the groups to AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and saying it is now officially launching its general election campaign against Brown, who has yet to formally announce his candidacy.

So even though Poizner and DeVore were treated like rock stars by cheering and whistling conservatives at CPAC today, their campaigns just aren't shaping up that way back in CA.

Fox News announced today that FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and ex-state Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL) have agreed to a joint appearance on "Fox News Sunday" March 28th. The live debate will take place on the Washington, DC, set of "Fox News Sunday."

According to Hotline sources, Crist has also agreed to debate on "Meet the Press" March 7th, an invitation Rubio has yet to accept.

Crist comm. dir. Andrea Saul released the following statement: "Governor Crist looks forward to participating in an open and honest discussion with Speaker Rubio about issues that directly affect Florida voters. These debates will give Floridians the chance to learn more about the candidates' actual records, and to see for themselves that Governor Crist is the clear choice when it comes to sending a Senator to Washington who will stand behind the principles of less government, less taxes, and more personal freedom."

Dispatches From CPAC

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is grateful his primary rival, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), is getting endorsements from prominent DC conservatives. It allows Hayworth to cast the race as Beltway power versus the grassroots, he said in an interview today.

"You can expect a steady stream of the Washington establishment to endorse John McCain. So here's the way the race breaks down: It's John McCain and the Washington establishment versus we the people," Hayworth said.

"We have profound policy differences that we solve through the political process, but with all due respect, I think it's indicative of John just having been there too long," he added.

Meanwhile, Hayworth said, McCain's efforts to cast himself as the fiscal conservative in the race are misplaced, given votes in favor of bailout legislation and his support for comprehensive immigration reform.

"John McCain of all people can't really claim the mantle of the fiscal conservative," Hayworth said. Instead, McCain's record "is Obama-like."

In DC to sit on a panel at CPAC, Hayworth is optimistic about his insurgent campaign against McCain. He lost his seat in '06 to Rep. Harry Mitchell (D), and McCain's team has argued a Hayworth candidacy would put McCain's seat in jeopardy.

But Hayworth says McCain's early assault on his candidacy has led to a backlash. McCain has already launched radio ads attacking Hayworth by name -- including ads that ran on KFYI, the Phoenix radio station on which Hayworth hosted a show until last month. Hayworth called the ads "fiction."

"I think really led to a backlash. People said, 'Hey, wait a minute, there's John McCain going after a conservative. Why, he never ran this way against Barack Obama,'" Hayworth said.

"For whatever reason, team McCain is bragging about running some sort of scorched earth campaign against me," he said. "Politically, the one-word term is threatened, and I can see why since I've been out of the trail."

On Friday, McCain's campaign launched another broadside, knocking Hayworth for failing to reach a publicly-stated goal of $100K during a "money bomb," and for having to defend himself for previous ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Dispatches From CPAC

Club for Growth pres. Chris Chocola reprimanded the GOP at CPAC today, saying it's the GOP's "responsibility" to hold the "arrogant, incompetent" Dem admin. accountable.

"Republicans have a real opportunity to regain a majority in November," Chocola said. "Conservatives need to ask the question ... can Republicans be trusted with a renewed majority? Would they really shrink the size of government?"

"Standing here today, I have to simply say I don't know," he continued. "I'm not convinced they have learned the lessons of the 2006 and 2008 elections."

As examples of the GOP turning from conservatism, Chocola pointed out the GOP's support of Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) over accountant/Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman in NY-23, Sen. Arlen Specter (D) over ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in PA SEN before Specter switched to the Dem Party and Gov. Charlie Crist (R) over ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in FL SEN.

At the mention of Scozzafava, Crist and Specter, the audience loudly booed. Chocola predicted Rubio and Toomey "will be new senators next year."

Chocola went directly after the "establishment." "The more time conservatives spend in Washington, the less they act like conservatives." He echoed the now-familiar message of the Tea Party movement, demanding that the GOP bend to conservatives, rather than conservatives simply folding into the GOP.

"Every year conservatives come back to Washington. And in a sense, every year conservatives come back to the Republican Party," Chocola concluded. "But this year, I think it's high time the Republican Party comes back to conservatives."

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Gen. David Petraeus and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R). The roundtable features Washington Post's E. J. Dionne, Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen.

Face the Nation hosts ex-Sec/State Colin Powell.

This Week hosts CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D). The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, Huffington Post's Arianna Huffington, ex-Bush strategist Matthew Dowd and Dem strategist Donna Brazile.

Fox News Sunday hosts Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R), MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) and You Tube head of news and politics Steve Grove. The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts TBA (see below for guests on Reliable Sources).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

In a recent interview with NationalJournal.com, Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook criticized the Obama administration for prioritizing health care and cap and trade over the economy. He called it a miscalculation "of proportions comparable to President George W. Bush's decision to go into Iraq." Video highlights of the interview follow in the video below.

Updated at 2:15 p.m.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (R-IN) has issued a statement confirming he'll run for retiring Rep. Evan Bayh's (D) seat. From the release:

"After many conversations with Hoosiers this week, and with the love and support of my family, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate. The best years of my life are the more than two decades I spent in the local Sheriff's department. Sheriff is a job that comes down to protecting families from harm, helping folks solve their problems or resolve their disputes, and just being willing to put your fellow citizens' best interests ahead of your own. When I look at the U.S. Senate these days, I sure think they could use more folks with those same qualities. And that's something I hope I could bring to the U.S. Senate -- an independent voice to help Indiana through these tough economic times, and get things done for everyday folks who are really struggling."

Ellsworth's name has been floated in recent days as a potential frontrunner in the scramble to find a suitable replacement for Bayh. As recently as yesterday, Ellsworth said he was still deciding on the matter. He's not the only Dem candidate that has announced his interest in pursuing the SEN, though. Earlier this week, Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. (D) said he plans to run as well.

NRSC spokesperson Brian Walsh took the opportunity to immediately hit Ellsworth for his vote on the Dem health care reform bill. "Should the Indiana Democrat party bosses attempt to anoint Ellsworth as their Senate nominee," Walsh said, "his rubberstamp support for the Democrats' trillion dollar government-run health care will immediately become a central issue in this campaign."

Howey Politics Indiana reports that State Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D), who is seen as Ellsworth's Dem successor in a bid for the 8th CD, has filed for nomination this a.m., just before the noon deadline.

The IN sec/state's office says that while Van Haaften has indeed filed in the 8th CD, Ellsworth has not yet removed his name from the ballot, a task he has until Monday at noon to complete. Meanwhile, according to state law, the IN Dems will not be able to officially select their SEN nominee until after May 4, the date of the IN primary.

The DCCC has outraised the NRCC again, even though the GOP bragged a week ago it had their best month of the cycle.

During Jan., the DCCC raised $4.7M and spent $3M, ending the month with $18.3M in the bank. The DCCC still carries $1.3M in debt.

In a conference call Feb. 10, in which the NRCC rolled out its first 10 Young Gun recruits, the NRCC said it had raised $4.5M and had just $4.1M in cash reserves.

Dispatches From CPAC

As he works to bolster his national profile, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is spending a lot of time introducing himself to conservative activists, though the first impression he gives off may not be the one he's aiming for.

Addressing a nearly full ballroom as the first major speaker of the day, Pawlenty offered his background and 4 principles on which his early WH exploration will focus, including religious values, fiscal conservatism, low taxes and a robust approach to national security and foreign policy.

But conservative activists who have seen Pawlenty early in his exploratory phase are not coming out of their seats -- and, whether because of the early-morning speaking slot or his own speech, read from block notes rather than a teleprompter or a typed manuscript, few gave him a standing ovation this morning.

Pawlenty will offer himself as the most electable contender. Coming from a state that elected liberals like Paul Wellstone, Hubert Humphrey and Eugene McCarthy -- and the only state that voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan in '84 -- he has a compelling message.

Pawlenty also sent a subtle signal by tapping Americans for Tax Reform pres. Grover Norquist to introduce him. Norquist, a minor celebrity in his own right among conservatives at CPAC, would give Pawlenty instant credibility among fiscal and movement conservatives, and among the establishment in DC.

And Pawlenty, who is becoming known for his jokes and barbs on the campaign trail, compared Pres. Obama to Tiger Woods, who apologized for his behavior in a media event broadcast across the country earlier today.

"We can learn a lot from that situation. Not from Tiger, but from his wife. So she said, 'I've had enough.' She said, 'No more.' I think we should take a page out of her playbook and take a 9-iron and smash the window out of big government in this country," Pawlenty said.

Still, Pawlenty fell short of the overwhelming ovations other speakers won. On Thursday, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio won bigger applause from attendees, while Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) earned more ovations than Pawlenty on Friday.

Conservative activists and professionals who have seen Pawlenty in action have questioned whether he is capable of firing up a crowd. Though he has given several major speeches before prominent conservative organizations, none have elicited rave reviews that other contenders offer.

He has the resume, and he has the record, to attract That, going forward, may be Pawlenty's biggest challenge.

Dispatches From CPAC

Excerpts from Rep. Mike Pence's (R-IN) speech to CPAC, as prepared for delivery:

"One year ago, many conservatives were sure of our principles but uncertain about our future. One year ago, it seemed that there were only a few people in this country who were unbowed by the glamour and appeal of the new American Left."

"Because of you, the American people have been on the march to restore the timeless values that have built this nation."

"A march whose first muster was began by you, right here in this city, one year ago."

"The American people are on the march to win back America."

"Some folks like to call us the party of 'no.' Well, I say 'no' is way underrated in Washington, D.C. Sometimes 'no' is just what this town needs to hear."

"When it comes to more borrowing, the answer is no. When it comes to more spending, the answer is no. When it comes to more bailouts, the answer is no. And when it comes to a government takeover of health care, the answer is no."

"Conservative Republicans are back. We're in the fight for fiscal discipline and limited government, and we are on the side of the American people."

"Let us do as generations of Americans have done before, let us stand for what has always been the source of American greatness: our faith in God and our freedom. And if we hold that banner high, I believe with all my heart, the good and great people of this land will rally to our cause. We will take this Congress back in 2010, and we will take this country back in 2012, so help us God."

NationalJournal.com recently interviewed Democratic strategist Stan Greenberg about how Dems could defuse some of the energy of the Tea Party movement. Excerpts of the interview are in the video that follows. For more coverage of the Tea Party movement, go here.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the plane crash at the Austin, TX, IRS building.

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) discussed the plane crash on "Your World" 2/18 p.m.

Brown, on the plane crashing into the Austin, TX, IRS building: "It's certainly tragic, and I feel for the families, obviously, that are being affected by it. And I don't know if it's related, but I can just sense, not only in my election but since being here in Washington, people are frustrated. They want transparency. They want their elected officials to be accountable and open and, you know, talk about the things that are affecting their daily lives. So, I'm not sure if there's a connection. I certainly hope not. But we need to do things better."

FNC's Cavuto: "Invariably, people are going to look at this type of incident, Senator, and say, well, that's where some of this populist rage gets you. Isn't that a bit extreme?"

Brown: "Yes, of course it's extreme. You don't know anything about the individual. He could have had other issues. Certainly, no one likes paying taxes, obviously. But the way we're trying to deal with things, and have been in the past, at least until I got here, is there's such a logjam in Washington, and people want us to do better. They want us to help solve the problems that are affecting Americans in a very real way."

After the jump, more from Brown and updates from CPAC.

Good Friday morning. An excellent night for Olympics-watching turned into fewer medals than we'd hoped, but we can't wait for tonight's skeleton runs.

Here's Friday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make headlines today:

MN GOV. TIM PAWLENTY: A crowd of CPAC supporters greeted TPaw by nickname when he showed up last night, and today he has a chance to win over the rest of the crowd when he speaks at 10 a.m. Pawlenty needs a strong showing in the straw poll, our experts said, if he is going to earn an early organizational boost.

Pawlenty "will speak about conservatives' comeback in the past year, and give credit to the audience's shared principles," according to one advisor. He will focus fire on the Obama admin while simultaneously offering some of his own ideas, a contrast each potential WH'12 candidate will attempt as they woo the faithful who could become the bedrock of their campaigns.

A fascinating side note: How many times will Pawlenty mention George W. Bush? After being nearly absent from last year's confab, Bush made a comeback yesterday when ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) offered a full-throated defense and when ex-VP Dick Cheney got a standing ovation during his surprise appearance.

Other CPAC speakers today include Reps. Mike Pence (R), Steve King (R-IA), Ron Paul (R-TX), Tom Price (R-GA), Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and Darrell Issa (R-CA) and Club for Growth chief Chris Chocola.

PRES. OBAMA: In NV today, Obama will roll out his plan to stem the tide of foreclosures that have plagued the housing market. The new package, aimed at states where the average home price has dropped 20% from the peak, will employ several tactics to keep homeowners in their homes by addressing problems caused by unemployed and underwater borrowers and by second liens.

MS-01 candidate/ex-Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan (R) gets a key endorsement in her bid for the GOP nomination against Rep. Travis Childers (D).

"On Friday, Feb. 18, Judge Joe Brown will be on campus at Ole Miss to address the students and people of Mississippi and give Congressional candidate, Angela McGlowan, his official endorsement. Judge Joe Brown, the well-respected host of a nationally syndicated courtroom television show, is scheduled to make his announcement at noon in front of the Student Center, facing the Grove," McGlowan's campaign announced in a statement this evening.

Daytime TV aficionados know Judge Joe Brown as the host of the real-life CBS show in which families, former friends and neighbors resolve their disputes.

But can he resolve -- or at least influence -- the dispute in MS-01? McGlowan faces state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) and ex-Eupora Mayor Henry Ross (R) before she gets a shot at Childers. Nunnelee is a favorite of the NRCC, a member of the "Contenders" tier of the party's "Young Guns" program.

Dispatches From CPAC

House Min. Leader John Boehner pushed a GOP renaissance in his CPAC remarks today, calling the GOP's opposition to the passage of the stimulus the beginning of the party's rebirth.

"It was the moment when the Republicans officially started listening to the American people again," Boehner said. Boehner and ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney both said the GOP had focused on listening, rather than lecturing.

Ironically, Boehner lambasted Pres. Obama for finger-wagging, then leveling criticisms of Obama in the next breath.

But Boehner laid out several concepts he will push if the GOP gains the majority and he is elected Speaker. "I pledge to you right here and now: We're going to run the House differently," he said.

Boehner said his House will post all bills online for three days, as well as votes, and will "outlaw 'phantom' amendments.'"

In a poke at the Obama admin's failure to put all negotiations on C-Span, Boehner said, "We will put cameras in the Rules Committee hearing room so Americans can see how decisions are made about what bills come to a vote."

"I can't tell you that a Republican Congress will change the world in 2 years -- we won't. We can't. But we can stop the Obama-Pelosi agenda. We can promote better solutions to the challenges facing the country," Boehner said.

Democrats are looking forward to President Obama's bipartisan health care summit at Blair House next week, but Republicans aren't expecting to gain much out of the confab, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. An overwhelming number of the Democratic Insiders--85 percent--said that they expected their party would benefit most from the Feb. 25 gathering. And by a 2-to-1 margin, the Republican Insiders also said that the Democrats were more likely to benefit. Republicans believe that they have the upper hand on the issue right now, and engaging the president before television cameras has a lot of downsides. Indeed, the results of this poll show even more GOP pessimism than when Republicans Insiders assessed the impact of the president's televised Q & A with House Republicans at their retreat in Baltimore (see NJ Political Insiders Poll 2/6/10).

Also in this week's poll, when the Democratic and Republican Insiders were asked what option would help their party most on jobs legislation--enacting a bipartisan bill, enacting an essentially Democratic bill, or no jobs bill at all--a solid majority of the Democratic Insiders said that a bipartisan outcome would be the best for them. Many believe that a bipartisan bill would be appealing to voters who want to see the two parties work together more, and that it would give their elected officials some political cover in the fall from Republicans who have been lambasting last year's stimulus legislation--which the vast majority of GOP officials opposed--as ineffective and wasteful spending. Less than a third of the Republican Insiders thought a bipartisan option would beneficial for them. A plurality, 38 percent, wanted to see no jobs legislation enacted in 2010, hoping that the public would blame Democrats for failing to produce. Another 25 percent said they wanted to see an essentially Democratic bill enacted, which they believe will be another inviting target for them to campaign against in the midterm elections.

For complete results and comments from the Political Insiders on both questions, click here.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) has yet to decide whether he will run for Senate, but if he does, Dems already have a candidate ready to take his place in the House.

Ellsworth could announce he is running for Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) seat soon, as first reported by Howey Politics Indiana report this a.m. If he does, state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D) is preparing to file for the 8th CD in Ellsworth's place.

But Ellsworth's office says no decision is final. "Contrary to some media reports, I have not made a decision about whether to run for the U.S. Senate. I am continuing to talk with my family and Hoosiers throughout Indiana about where I can best serve our state. Put simply, this is a decision I don't take lightly," Ellsworth said in a statement.

"I want to make sure whatever decision I make is the right one for my family, my constituents, and the state of Indiana. Tomorrow, I will wrap up my annual Open Door Listening Tour, which took me through all 18-counties of the 8th District. At that point, I will have more time to devote to giving this great responsibility the serious consideration it deserves."

DNC member Dean Boerste tells Hotline OnCall he spoke with Ellsworth earlier this afternoon, at which point he had not yet made up his mind. "He is still talking with his family and trying to decide what is best for his constituents," Boerste said. "I would hope we know something today, tonight, or first thing tomorrow."

The deadline for Ellsworth to declare his Senate candidacy may be quickly approaching, according to legal experts examining statute on behalf of both parties. According to the '10 IN Election Calendar from the sec/state's office, candidates have until noon on 2/22 to withdraw their candidacies (Ellsworth has already filed for re-election to his House district).

IN law sets a noon deadline on the 22nd "for an individual to withdraw a declaration of candidacy or a request for ballot placement for the primary." A spokesperson for the IN Elections Division in the Sec/State's office said that should candidates like Ellsworth or Rep. Baron Hill (D) decide to run for Senate, their names will be on the May 4 primary ballot for their respective House races unless they withdraw those House candidacies by noon on Feb. 22. The spokesperson noted, however, that they can go to court if they don't get it done in time.

Dispatches From CPAC

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) lambasted Pres. Obama and cong. Dems in his speech to CPAC today, arguing that the admin.'s economic policies have brought the country in the wrong direction.

"America is not better off than it was 1.8 trillion dollars ago," Romney told crowd as he launched into an assault on the stimulus package one year and a day after the bill's passage. He argued that the stimulus has created "not one net new job in the private sector," that the admin. has "scared employers," and that Obama has been "unwilling or unable to define the road ahead."

"President Obama instituted the most anti-growth, anti-investment, anti-jobs measures we've seen in our lifetimes," Romney said. "He called his agenda ambitious. I call it reckless." As a result, Obama "prolonged the recession, expanded the pain of unemployment, and added to the burden of debt."

Romney based his criticism of the admin. on his years of business experience, contending that his time spent "in the real economy" taught him that "the first rule of turning around any troubled enterprise is focus, focus, focus." By prioritizing his "ill-conceived healthcare takeover" and "building his personal popularity in foreign countries," Obama, he argued, "failed to focus, and so he failed."

While he tore into Dems, Romney told the crowd that rather than being afraid of saying "No," GOPers should realize that it's "right and praiseworthy to say no to bad things" such as cap-and-trade, EFCA, gov't healthcare and higher taxes.

And he turned the "Party of No" argument back on Dems, asking why they say "no" to things like a balanced budget, entitlement reform, tax cuts and prosecuting Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in a military tribunal.

"We conservatives don't have a corner on saying 'No,'" Romney said. "We're just the ones who say it when that's the right thing to do."

He also rallied to the defense of George W. Bush and chided Dems for pinning blame for the country's economic woes on the previous admin., following up that defense with a zinger aimed back at Dems.

"When it comes to pinning blame," he deadpanned, "pin the tail on the donkeys."

Dispatches From CPAC

Here's a surprise out of Mitt Romney's CPAC address: unabashed praise of George W. Bush.

"I am convinced that history will judge President Bush far more kindly--he pulled us from a deepening recession following the attack of 9-11, he overcame teachers unions to test school children and evaluate schools, he took down the Taliban, waged a war against the jihadists and was not afraid to call it what it is--a war, and he kept us safe," Romney said.

And some classic Romney: "I respect his silence even in the face of the assaults on his record that come from this administration. But at the same time, I also respect the loyalty and indefatigable defense of truth that comes from our 'I don't give a damn' Vice President Dick Cheney!"

When campaigning for president several years ago, Romney opted to direct his attacks at the Clintons. He steered clear of Bush while still pushing some of Bush's ideas -- privatizing Social Security among them. When Bush did come up, however, Romney largely praised him for keeping the country safe.

In fact, CPAC attendees have basked in the Bush glow much more than they did last year. Just after Pres. Obama's inauguration, CPAC attendees in '09 barely mentioned the newly-retired Bush. This year, Cheney made a surprise appearance alongside daughter Liz -- an appearance that brought the crowd to its feet.

One GOP strategist, Christopher Barron, is even running a campaign to get CPAC attendees to write in Cheney on their straw poll ballots, though the ex-veep said he won't be running for office again.

In a conference call with reporters 2/18, Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) camp accused Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) of "playing the victim" over a scandal involving the Broadway Bank, a scandal a Giannoulias advisor said was linked to the struggling economy.

Kirk spokesperson Eric Elk pointed to a comment from Giannoulias media consultant Eric Adelstein, which Elk called "so remarkable it warrants a response." On a 2/17 conference call touting Giannoulias' internal poll numbers Adelstein said that the "struggling" Broadway Bank was "something voters can relate to" in this economy.

The Kirk camp attempted to refute the Giannoulias poll numbers which showed the Dem leading Kirk by 4%, but they refused to release their own internal numbers, and pollster Greg Strimple said he "thinks this race will be close all year long."

Strimple argued that Giannoulias' numbers lacked credibility because of the low number of undecided voters. The Kirk camp sees a high number of undecideds, particularly in the St. Louis media market and western edge of IL. Their polls also include Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, who is on the Nov. ballot. He argued that Jones may win a significant number of votes this year from disenchanted Dems.

But Elk dodged a Hotline OnCall question regarding a possible third party challenge from the right. When asked repeatedly whether they expect a right-wing challenge, perhaps by a social conservative concerned with Kirk's moderate stances, he refused to rule it out, but called the chances "extremely low."

And he did not deny that Pres. Obama is extremely popular in IL. The Giannoulias poll showed Obama with a 64% favorability, and Strimple said his poll showed a similar level. But Elk said he couldn't "imagine (Obama) wants to campaign" alongside "Chicago politician" Giannoulias.

He argued that Kirk is a "bipartisan kind of guy," and will pick up crossover Dems who are sick of the corruption. He labeled Giannoulias as part of the "Blagojevich-Burris team."

Excerpts from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's speech this afternoon to CPAC:

"2009 was the President's turn to suffer losses, and not just at the ballot box, but also in bill after bill in Congress, and most importantly, in his failure to reignite the economy."

"Of course, the President accuses us of being the party of 'no.' It's as if he thinks that saying 'no' is by definition a bad thing. In fact, it is right and praiseworthy to say no to bad things. It is right to say no to cap and trade, no to card check, no to government healthcare, and no to higher taxes. My party should never be a rubber stamp for rubber check spending."

"President Obama instituted the most anti-growth, anti-investment, anti-jobs measures we've seen in our lifetimes. He called his agenda ambitious. I call it reckless. He scared employers, so jobs were scarce. His nearly trillion dollar stimulus created not one net new job in the private sector, but it saved and grew jobs in the government sector-- the one place we should have shed jobs. And even today, because he has been unwilling or unable to define the road ahead, uncertainty and lack of predictability permeate the private economy, and prolongs its stall. America is not better off than it was 1.8 trillion dollars ago."

"In a world where others have lost their liberty by trading it away for the false promises of the state, we choose to hold to our founding principles. We will stop these power-seekers where they stand. We will keep America, America, by retaining its character as the land of opportunity. We welcome the entrepreneur, the inventor, the innovator. We will insist on greatness from every one of our citizens, and rather than apologizing for who we are or for what we have accomplished, we will celebrate our nation's strength and goodness. American patriots have defeated tyrants, liberated the oppressed, and rescued the afflicted. America's model of innovation, capitalism and free enterprise has lifted literally billons of the world's people out of poverty. America has been a force for good like no other in this world, and for that we make no apology."

Could baseball have cleaned up its steroid addiction sooner? Ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) thinks so, and he points the finger at ex-AG Alberto Gonzales.

In '05, when Davis chaired the House Government Reform Committee, he and then-ranking member Henry Waxman (D-CA) led the charge to clean up baseball, hauling star players before the committee to discuss rampant steroid use around the league.

At the time, one of those sluggers, St. Louis Cardinal great Mark McGwire, was willing to sing like a canary, provided he got the immunity necessary to avoid prosecution. But Davis didn't have the power to grant blanket -- or transactional -- immunity, meaning he needed Gonzales's help.

"I called Alberto Gonzales, who, for the record, is not only a bad shortstop for the Nats, but also one of the worst attorney generals we've ever had, and he wouldn't give" McGwire immunity, Davis said in an interview Thursday.

"Think of what these hearings could have been if McGwire had gotten up there under immunity, and said, 'Oh, let me tell you a story. You know, I used steroids,'" Davis said, shaking his head. "Baseball would have moved quicker. I think we would have had a more full story."

Instead, McGwire refused to detail what he knew about steroid use in baseball. McGwire, who is returning to the Cardinals as a hitting coach, admitted his steroid use last month -- after the 5-year statute of limitations had expired.

McGwire was one of a handful of ballplayers appeared before the panel on St. Patrick's Day of '05. Joining McGwire on the panel was Sammy Sosa, the former Chicago Cubs outfielder who challenged McGwire for the single-season home run record in 1998.

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) is not an announced speaker at CPAC this year, but he will make a surprise appearance this afternoon.

Brown will introduce ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), a likely WH'12 contender, when Romney addresses the convention later this afternoon.

"The reaction to the next surprise will be the biggest of the conference," said one source who confirmed the appearance.

Romney is the first major WH'12 contender, and the first person included on CPAC's straw poll ballot, to speak to the audience of conservative activists, students and GOP leaders.

Candidates hoping to replace VT Gov. Jim Douglas (R) are in for a tough fight this year, according to a new poll, and despite the state's liberal tilt, GOPers have a good shot at keeping control.

The Research 2000 poll, conducted for WCAX, surveyed 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. LG Brian Dubie (R) was tested against state Sen. Susan Bartlett (D), ex-state Sen./'06 LG nominee Matt Dunne (D), Sec/State Deb Markowitz (D), state Sen./ex-LG Doug Racine (D) and state Senate pres. Peter Shumlin (D).

General Election Matchups
Markowitz     43%     Dubie         43%
Dubie         41      Racine        38

Dubie         45      Dubie         44
Shumlin       35      Dunne         36
Dubie         48
Bartlett      30

Dubie's strength, though, may be misleading. He is overperforming among his base, while Dems -- who face a Sept. 14 primary -- are seriously underperforming among their own voters. Dubie wins 82% of GOPers against Markowitz, for example, while she takes just 63% of Dems. 25% of all Dems remain undecided in that matchup, while only 8% of GOPers haven't made up their minds.

Douglas is stepping down after serving 4 terms in office (VT, along with NH, elects their govs to 2-year terms). In '02, Douglas beat Racine 45%-42%, though he had less trouble with his re-election bids. In '08, Douglas took 53%, while a Dem and a Progressive candidate, Anthony Pollina, each took 22%.

Pollina has not decided whether he will run again. He won't make a decision about another bid until May, when the legislative session is over.

Dispatches From CPAC

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) fired up a packed room at a DC hotel this morning, slamming Pres. Obama and basking in the glow of conservatives eager for a win.

Rubio assailed the "deliberate and systematic effort to redefine our government, our country and our economy," praising Tea Party activists he said had organized the "single greatest pushback in American history."

Rubio is waging an underdog battle against FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in the race for Sen. George LeMieux's (R) open Senate seat. He won standing ovations and long applause during a speech heavy on conservative talking points and loaded with details on his personal history.

Conservative activists cramming the Wardman Marriott Hotel greeted Rubio, running to Crist's right, as a hero, the symbol of their fight to purify the GOP and insulate it against moderates like Crist and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), who switched party affiliations last year.

"The U.S. Senate already has one Arlen Specter too many. After all, America already has a Democrat Party. It doesn't need 2 Democrat Parties," Rubio said.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), a prominent Rubio backer, drew a parallel between Crist and Specter, the party turncoat. "I would rather have 30 Marco Rubios in the Senate than 60 Arlen Specters," he said.

Both Rubio and Crist did their best to associate each other with Dems. "Clever one-line slogans are not going to spare you the need to discuss policies in detail," Rubio said.

Crist's campaign, which has mounted an assault on Rubio in the run-up to the CPAC appearance, fired back, equating Rubio with Obama.

"In the past year, we have all seen the results of allowing a candidate to hide his record behind the veil of a good speech while touting his so-called ideals," Crist communications chief Andrea Saul said in a statement. "While Speaker Rubio claims he will not be co-opted by big government, his record as a Miami lobbyist while simultaneously serving in the legislature demonstrates he is willing to be co-opted by much worse."

Pres. Obama will hit the campaign trail today, making stops in Denver and Las Vegas as he shores up vulnerable Dem bank accounts.

Obama will appear at 2 events for Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) in Denver for a grassroots rally and fundraiser early this afternoon, where donors will pay $25 to $250 to hear the pres. A cocktail reception will cost donors $1K, while those who raise up to $15K get their picture taken with Obama.

Later, Obama will head to Las Vegas for a fundraiser supporting the DNC. Obama will appear at a private home for a dinner, but no formal remarks are planned, according to the WH.

It's Obama's latest trip to NV, where Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid faces a difficult battle for re-election. It's also his first trip to NV since a slip of the tongue 2 weeks ago, when Obama urged fiscal restraint by taking a perceived shot at the Vegas tourism industry.

Obama later apologized for his remarks after Reid asked him to "lay off."

The fundraisers will pull in big loads of cash for Dems, but that's probably not the highlight of Obama's day. This morning, he will meet with the Dalai Lama in the Map Room.

Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty (D) will announce that he is dropping his PA GOV bid and instead will run for an open state Senate seat, according to local reports, removing one major candidate from a crowded field.

Doherty, who has lagged in fundraising and in polls in the midst of the large primary field, will hold a press conference at 11 a.m. today. Doherty said he wouldn't endorse another candidate in the race immediately.

Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D), Aud. Jack Wagner (D), and '04 SEN nominee/Montgomery Co. Commis./ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D) remain in the race. The winner of the primary is expected to face AG Tom Corbett (R), who has led all Dems in public polling this year.

Onorato has raised the most money on the Democratic side, but Wagner came the closest to winning the party endorsement on 2/13, although he didn't gain two-thirds of the delegates needed. Hoeffel is running as the progressive candidate, stressing his liberal positions on social issues.

A Doherty endorsement may help in northeastern PA, which is rich in Democratic votes. Sen. Bob Casey (D) and his father, the late Gov. Bob Casey (D), won statewide office by relying on their NE PA base. Onorato and Wagner are from the Pittsburgh area while Hoeffel once represented a suburb of Philadelphia in Congress.

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) will deliver the keynote address at CPAC this a.m. Excerpts from his prepared remarks, as provided to Hotline OnCall:

Rubio: "I was not born to a wealthy or connected family. And yet, I have never felt or been limited by the circumstances of my birth. I have never once felt like there was something that was not possible for me because of who my parents were, or where they came from. But why is it that I have been able to accomplish many of my dreams, but my grandfather's dreams never had a chance? The answer is simple. Because I am privileged. The simple privilege of being a citizen of the greatest society in all of human history. There has never been a nation like the United States."

"As we near the midterm election, what voters are looking for is very clear. They are looking for leaders that understand what is happening, will stand up to it and in its place offer a clear alternative."

"Twenty-ten will not be just a choice between Republicans or Democrats. It will not just be a simple choice between liberals and conservatives. It will be a referendum on our nations very identity."

"People want leaders that will come here to Washington D.C. and stand up to this big government agenda, not be co-opted by it. The Senate already has one Arlen Specter too many. And America already has a Democrat party. It doesn't need another Democrat party."

The widely-anticipated appearance marks Rubio's debut to conservatives on the nat'l stage. He'll be introduced by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who was one of Rubio's earliest backers and recently buoyed his bid against FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) with a moneybomb that netted Rubio $149K+.

In the course of canvassing GOP strategists, activists and party leaders about this week's CPAC straw poll, we chatted with Bill Pascoe, a veteran campaign hand who's spent many years trolling the CPAC hallways.

Pascoe, who writes the In The Right blog and helped run CPACs from '94-'99, declined to predict a winner, but he said ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin will finish in first and second -- not necessarily in that order, but right in line with what our experts predicted.

The key, Pascoe said, is to know the audience. More than 60% of the sample is made up of white males; about the same percentage are under 25; and a majority are students.

"They're young, white, male, still learning, and worried about big government and fiscal issues far more than anything else out there," Pascoe wrote in an email. Romney has an established base at CPAC, while Palin connects on a base level that's hard to overlook, he said.

But are we looking at the wrong metric? Sure, a straw poll will make everyone looking for WH'12 news salivate now, but the audience candidates should ingratiate themselves with is much smaller than those who will vote in the straw poll.

"The key is not who shows the best this year in the straw poll, the key is who best impresses the key organizers about his/her ability to wow the crowd with a stump speech that drives 'em crazy. CPAC2010 is all about auditioning for the CPAC that REALLY counts, and that's NEXT year -- CPAC2011," Pascoe wrote in an email.

That puts pressure on MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who has less of a following among the traditional CPAC leadership than Romney, Palin, Sen. John Thune (R-SD), MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R), IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) -- all of whom have spent time in DC.

"Pawlenty? Nobody'd ever really heard of him before last summer, with the VP boomlet. So he's got a lot riding on this -- if he gives a good speech, he'll likely land a key speaking slot NEXT year. But if he flubs it, he'll have a hard time overcoming it," Pascoe wrote.

We'll be reporting live from CPAC all weekend, bringing you the speeches that count and reaction from CPAC chief/ACU head David Keene and his inner circle. Stay tuned.

"World News" led with Tiger Woods' announcement that he will break the silence on his scandals tomorrow. "Evening News" led with Toyota's safety troubles. "Nightly News" led with tightened airport security screening measures.

On the one-year anniversary of the stimulus, observers continued to weigh in on whether the $787B package has been a success.

Ex-McCain adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin, on whether the stimulus worked: "I think the most potent piece of evidence against the bill is the fact if you compare what the president said the economy was doing, dropping at six percent and give it -- the Recovery Act all the credit for the growth we saw in 2009, it barely breaks even. We basically got a dollar for every dollar the federal government spent and that's not much in the way of stimulus."

Ex-Clinton Labor Sec. Robert Reich, on how there remains a need for the stimulus: "There was an immediate need and there continues to there be. That was the first 10, 20, 30, $40 billion that went out had a very important direct effect. But like that time relief cold capsule, there is a continuing need. The recession is not going to turn around right away. Money cannot be spent right away. I don't think the administration ever said that the money would be immediately spent. But the unemployment insurance, the money that went to the states, locales and in terms of keeping the stimulus money going ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/18).

Weekly Standard's Hayes: "I think it's clear that the stimulus and problems associated with the stimulus, the lack of effectiveness, the waste that's been everywhere and been much in evidence, been much remarked about, and the costs, primarily the cost, the size of the stimulus, went directly to the defeat of health care, raised questions about health care. And you have seen then his domestic agenda crumble as a result" ("Special Report," FNC, 2/17).

Ex-Newsweek's Richard Wolffe, on the stimulus messaging battle: "Republicans did a slick job of pretending that this whole bill was about pet projects and pretty much not anything else. And they ignored the fact that the earmarks were stripped out of it. They ignored all the tax cuts that the president talked about or the unemployment benefits. And they actually did a much better sales job than this White House did, because the White House thought, well, they would get credit for dealing with the crisis" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/17).

After the jump, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) talks health care and the economy, and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) discusses his post-retirement plans.

Good Thursday morning. After a day trailing Germany, the U.S. is back atop the medal count. But what's with the men's and women's curling teams dropping games they led early?

Here's Thursday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make headlines today:

EX-FL HOUSE SPEAKER MARCO RUBIO: Today kicks off CPAC, the annual gathering of conservative activists at a DC hotel, and the star of the party will be one of the first speakers. Rubio has benefited from a surge of national interest, and his campaign in FL has become the surrogate for every frustrated conservative looking to punish a moderate.

Rubio leads recent polls against Gov. Charlie Crist (R), but he has hurdles to overcome. One is Crist's mammoth bank account -- through the end of the year, Crist had $7.5M in the bank compared with $2M for Rubio. Another is Crist's willingness, apparently renewed after those polls show him behind, to go on offense. Crist's camp sent a memo to reporters yesterday blasting Rubio's inconsistencies and record. If that turns into a paid media campaign, Rubio's lead could evaporate.

For today, he's the darling of conservative activists. But Rubio's path to the nomination will not be so easy. Crist, for one, has been through this before; he beat ex-FL CFO Tom Gallagher (R) by a 64%-33% margin in the '06 GOV primary, largely fought over the same conservative-vs.-moderate lines. If he survives this time, it will be a much bigger feat.

SEN. JIM DEMINT: The SC GOPer will introduce Rubio this morning at the CPAC confab, and he'll do his own work stoking conservative anger. DeMint, famed for claiming he would rather have a caucus of 30 true conservatives in the Senate than 60 GOPers who took more moderate stands, has built his Senate Conservatives Fund into a machine that gets attention when it endorses. Their candidates -- Rubio, TX Railroad Commis. Michael Williams (R), CA Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) -- have all challenged the GOP establishment (all but Toomey will speak at CPAC).

And even as GOPers hope to broaden the tent in order to maximize House gains, DeMint is sticking to his guns. DeMint tweeted yesterday that any GOP leader who does not agree to the so-called Mount Vernon Statement -- a pact touting conservative values signed at a big ceremony yesterday -- "should be replaced."

Residents of Johnstown, PA, and its environs will head to the polls May 18 to pick a successor for the late Rep. John Murtha (D), Gov. Ed Rendell (D) announced today.

PA will save an estimated $683K by holding the on the same day as primary elections, Rendell's office said in a press release.

The decision could also save Dems a seat; the party will have competitive elections in both the GOV and SEN races, meaning turnout will be higher than it would be for an ordinary election.

Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) and AG Tom Corbett (R) are the runaway favorites in their respective races for SEN and GOV, meaning GOPers have less of a reason to turn out.

Ex-Treas. Barbara Hafer (D) is the most prominent candidate to have announced her interest in the race so far. Businessmen William Russell (R), the '08 nominee, and Tim Burns (R) are the only 2 GOPers in the race so far. State Rep. Dave Reed (R) and Crown America CEO Mark Pasquerilla (R) are considering bids.

GOPers with no stake in governing have nothing to gain in working with Dems on a bipartisan jobs bill or other legislative measures, ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) told reporters today. And not getting involved in a sticky situation could help the GOP pick up seats.

The party recognizes a mistake it made in '78, when, working with Dems, the GOP became "complicit" in governing, Davis said. No one, he said, should wonder why GOPers aren't working with Dems to forge a bipartisan compromise. "Traditionally, there's no reward for that at the ballot box."

"Obama and Democrats own the economy right now. Obama and the Democrats own Afghanistan right now. These are the variables," Davis said. "In campaigns, there are 3 things that hurt incumbents: Bad economies, scandals and bad foreign policies."

Davis, the former chair of the NRCC, sees his party in strong position to pick up seats this Nov. He is especially emboldened by election results from VA and MA, where GOPers saw big gains among suburban voters who had abandoned the party in recent years. And though the late Tip O'Neill maintained that all politics is local, Davis sees more benefits in talking about national issues.

"This will be the third straight nationalized election. That's odd," Davis said. "This is a referendum on the Democrats, pure and simple."

But, Davis said, to maximize the party's potential gains, the party needs to focus not on ideological purity, but on uniting behind the one thing all members of the GOP can agree on -- defeating Dems.

"You want to have everybody that's ticked off at the administration, you want them under your banner. You want to just make that coalition as large [as possible]," Davis said. "You'll fight about policy afterwards, but let's get our people elected."

That means any document akin to the Contract with America should be full of generalities focused on good governance -- making legislative meetings more open, or posting bills online before a vote, for example -- instead of specific policy procedures.

Davis did not put an exact number on the seats he thought his party would gain in this year's elections, but he said anything less than 25 seats would be disappointing. He pointed to strong recruiting -- stronger than any class since '46, when the GOP took back the House -- but he pointed to 2 special elections in NY and to Dems' financial advantage as factors of which to be wary.

"The Democrats have shown they know how to win campaigns," Davis said. But he pointed to internal polls that show GOPers running well against Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), who holds Davis's old seat, and other junior Dems.

Highlights from our survey of party leaders, activists, pundits and GOP strategists in advance of this week's CPAC straw poll:

From those who believe ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will win the straw poll:

"Romney is the heir apparent to the GOP throne, the party insiders respect his dedication and will repay him for his time, energy and money invested thus far."

"Romney's team is a master at organizing and winning straw polls like this (even when his folks are pretending not to)."

"Lots of DC conservatives probably piling into CPAC and they will be more prone to influence of the next guy syndrome."

From those who think ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin is the favorite:

"Her high visibility with the book, the tea party speech last week and as a Fox commentator will make her the emotional favorite, which will guarantee 2 things in DC this Spring: Cherry Blossoms and 'Palin on the Rebound' stories."

"CPAC attendees are likely to identify with her as a symbol of derision among media and GOP elite circles."

"For better or worse, she has the highest name I.D. and the most intensely devoted following among conservative activists. Activists don't just agree with her, they identify with her."

From a strategist who sees ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich as the surprise winner: "The balloting is heavily skewed to college students who don't remember Gingrich's failure as Speaker. He still talks one of the best games in town, and CRs eat it up."

Click here for complete results, a roster of participants and the '10 CPAC ballot order.

After the jump, check out responses to our questions about who has the most to prove at CPAC.

In a press conference with reporters this afternoon, the Giannoulias camp argued that while it's a "very tight race," Giannoulias' lead has held up despite a tough primary and "a deteriorating national climate" for Dems as a whole.

While Giannoulias had to face negative TV ads from rival ex-Chicago IG David Hoffman (D), Kirk was never engaged in a serious negative campaign during the primary, Giannoulias consultant Eric Adelstein said. He added that Giannoulias' lead will increase when IL voters are told about Kirk's DC "insider" obstructionist politics.

The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll was conducted 2/9-14 for Giannoulias; it surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Tested: Giannoulias and Kirk.

               Now 10/28 8/2
Giannoulias    49%  46%  45%
Kirk           45   43   40

Giannoulias won a tough primary race against Hoffman and ex-Chicago Urban League pres. Cheryle Jackson (D), while Kirk had a relatively easy race against his chief rival developer Patrick Hughes (R). Public polling shows the general race is now essentially tied, but both candidates have struggled to put issues raised in the primary behind them as they move into the general election.

Giannoulias is facing questions about his family's business, Broadway Bank, which signed a consent order with the FDIC last month, a move that indicated federal regulators had deep concerns about the bank's fiscal health. Before the primary election, Giannoulias said he would answer questions about his involvement with the bank, but has yet to do so. Giannoulias has self-funded part of his '06 Treasurer campaign with money he earned with Broadway Bank. Kirk and the NRSC will attempt to tie Giannoulias to both the Wall Street bailouts and IL corruption scandals of recent years, especially ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D).

Meanwhile, the moderate Kirk is struggling to unite conservative GOPers behind his bid. Rumors are rampant in the state circles about a formidable third-party challenge from the right, particularly someone from the Constitution Party. 6/21 is the final deadline for a third party candidate to get on the Nov. ballot.

The first skirmish in the war over the GOP WH nomination takes place this weekend among thousands of conservative activists, and veterans of previous straw polls see a tight battle between ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin developing at this week's Conservative Political Action Conference.

In an informal survey of GOP party leaders, strategists, activists and pundits representing backers of virtually every potential candidate in the field, a narrow plurality say Palin will win this weekend's straw poll. 22 of 48 GOPers surveyed chose Palin, while 20 chose Romney.

Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) attracted 2 votes each, while ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) earned a single vote. 1 voter was torn between Romney and Palin.

"CPAC attracts a young, philosophical-driven audience who love Palin's pure, unfiltered delivery of conservatism," said one Palin voter. Added another: "Newt may be smarter than everyone else, Romney may out-organize everyone else and [Rep. Ron] Paul may out-Libertarian everyone else, but Palin has that connection to the grassroots that cannot be replicated."

Romney, who has won the last 3 CPAC straw polls, has a crucial leg up on other contenders, according to many who think he will win a fourth. His team's ability to organize around the event in previous years is likely to give him some residual good will among attendees.

"Everyone knows how good his organization was in the lead-up to the 08 primaries, but not everyone realizes how sneaky-good that organization remains," said one respondent. Added another: "Mitt bears the high expectations of having won CPAC three years in a row. While this establishes him as the clear favorite of mainstream conservatives, it also keeps the pressure on for him to win every time he shows up."

Other contenders, including MS Gov. Haley Barbour, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, Paul, House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence and Sen. John Thune (R-SD) did not receive any votes among those asked who was expected to win the straw poll. Voters at CPAC will also have an option to write in a candidate or to say they remain undecided.

Those who keep an eye on CPAC say Romney and Palin are among the contenders with the most to prove, as well. Romney's earlier wins place a burden on his shoulders, while Palin's high-profile book tour and Fox News job set a high bar. And though she will not be attending the event, Palin still has to deal with expectations.

"The GOP's real struggle right now is whether it should represent authenticity or competence. Romney is the obvious competence candidate, but is that really what inspires the Tea Party era?" said one activist, who believes Romney has the most to prove. In all, 9 voters chose Romney for the dubious honor.

"She gambled big time -- and unecessarily so -- by skipping CPAC. If she still finishes strong the gamble will pay off," another respondent said. "If she struggles, it will speak volumes about the shallowness of her support among movement conservatives." 9 people tagged Palin with the most to prove mantle.

But more voters -- 13 -- said Pawlenty has to use the venue to brush up his conservative bona fides and introduce himself to the activist set that could help, or hurt, his future endeavors. Pawlenty has been the most active in building an organization and making his case to conservative groups, another factor which puts pressure on him to do well.

"He needs to prove that he's at least able to hang with the organizational big dog (Romney) and isn't dwarfed by the huge personalities (Palin and Huckabee)," wrote one strategist. Added a second: "Pawlenty probably has the best resume for a center-right tent pole around which a large coalition can be built, but he has to show that he can excite activists and inspire people to action. The nice-guy persona has to show some teeth and power."

Gingrich, according to 3 voters, has the most to prove, especially after he backed a moderate GOPer in the NY-23 House race. 5 said Huckabee has to find a way to move past a pardon he gave to a man who, late last year, shot and killed 4 police officers in WA. And 2 chose Santorum, whose nascent interest in a bid would be a long shot; over-performing would give him the chance to appear as a contender for social conservatives, rather than an also-ran.

Full results, along with a full list of our activists, party leaders, strategists and pundits after the jump. Check back later today for more comments from CPAC veterans explaining why they believe one candidate can, or has to, win.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll out today aims to identify what kinds of people comprise the nascent Tea Party movement currently shaking up American politics and tilting the electoral landscape back to the GOP.

The poll didn't explain the origins or philosophies of the Tea Party movement to respondents, but of the 1,023 people Opinion Research Corp. interviewed, 124 said they had donated money, attended an event, or otherwise actively supported the movement. Thanks to the small sample size, data on Tea Partiers carries a high margin of error of +/- 8.8%.

But some elements of the data are instructive: Tea Partiers tend to skew male, whiter, wealthier and better educated than the general public.

While all poll respondents were divided virtually evenly by gender, 60% of those involved with the Tea Party were male. Whites made up 80% of Tea Partiers but 71% of all respondents.

And the group is better off than average Americans. 66% percent of Tea Partiers said they make more than $50K a year, whereas just 42% of all respondents make that much. Fully 40% were college grads, higher than the 28% of all respondents who have college degrees.

With respect to party ID, more than half of the Tea Partiers polled IDed themselves as indies, with 44% describing themselves as GOPers and 4% as Dems. But while the GOP is making overtures to the Tea Party movement -- RNC Chair Michael Steele met with Tea Party leaders yesterday on Capitol Hill -- these activists are strongly in the GOP camp for now.

Fully 87% of Tea Partiers said they would support the GOP candidate on a generic '10 congressional ballot, while only 5% are supporting the Dem candidate. The generic ballot among all poll respondents was tied, 46-46%.

The poll was conducted Feb. 12-15. The margin of error for the full sample of adults was +/- 3.1%.

KY LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) has a big lead over his main Dem rival, according to a new poll conducted for Mongiardo's campaign.

The poll, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, surveyed 655 Dem primary voters between Feb. 2-4 for a margin of error of +/- 3/9%. Mongiardo was tested against AG Jack Conway (D), law student Darlene Price (D) and farmer Maurice Sweeney (D).

Primary Election Matchup
 (W/leaners)

Mongiardo       43

Conway          25

Price            2

Sweeney          1

Mongiardo and Conway waged a fierce primary campaign over most of '09, and insiders made it pretty obvious they preferred Conway to emerge from the May 18 primary. Most major Dems in the state back Conway, while Mongiardo was caught on tape badmouthing his most prominent ally, Gov. Steve Beshear (D).

Conway has raised more money, banking $1.7M through the end of the year to Mongiardo's $782K. But Mongiardo has a name recognition advantage residual from his '04 run against Sen. Jim Bunning (R). That year, Mongiardo narrowly lost a race that was much closer than expected.

The polling memo, released by Mongiardo's campaign, touts Mongiardo's lead over Conway among men and women, among liberals, moderates and conservatives and in every media market except Conway's Louisville base.

Update: Conway's campaign fires back: "Our campaign is clearly in the best position to win the Democratic nomination in May with nearly $1 million more on hand and a stronger campaign organization -- not to mention a message of creating jobs, cutting the deficit, and bringing accountability to Washington, which is resonating with Kentuckians from Greenup County to Graves County," said Allison Haley, Conway's spokesperson.

Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH) is the latest former member of Congress who wants his old job back. Bass, who lost his seat in '06, said he would run again in a conference call this morning.

Bass will face a GOP primary and the winner of what looks like a competitive Dem field. A centrist, Bass will face ex-state Rep. Bob Giuda (R), radio host/'08 nominee Jennifer Horn (R) and local officials from Bristol and Milford.

The man who beat him, Rep. Paul Hodes (D), is vacating the seat to run for Senate. Bass beat Hodes in '04 by a wide 58%-38% margin, but in '06, aided by the national wave that favored Dems, Hodes came back for a 53%-46% win.

The district, based in Nashua and Concord, runs all the way north to the Canadian border. It has given Dems a majority in at least the last 3 WH elections, handing Pres. Obama a 56%-43% win in '08. But few states flipped faster towards Dems than NH did, and in the current national climate, the GOP is favored to have a good year in the Granite State.

Bass joins ex-Reps. Steve Chabot (R-OH), Steve Pearce (R-NM), Tim Walberg (R-MI), Mike Sodrel (R-IN), Richard Pombo (R-CA) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA), all of whom are seeking their old seats.

Update: Friend of Hotline OnCall/NBC's Domenico Montanaro reminds us we left out Sodrel, who is running -- for a 5th time -- against Rep. Baron Hill (D).

Sen. Evan Bayh's (D-IN) decision to retire at the end of the year has GOPers excited once again at the prospect of winning back control of the upper chamber. Although the media has latched on to the prospect, the GOP has a tough, if not impossible, slog in front of them.

To win back the gavel, the GOP needs to effectively run the table, winning every seat that's seriously competitive and keeping all their open seats. Taking a look at every competitive seat proves that will be a difficult task.

GOPers have to win every seat in the first 5 categories we've laid out, all while holding on to each of 4 vulnerable open seats. GOPers should be happy to make it halfway toward winning the majority, given that '12 looks set to be another good year for them. The party shouldn't diminish this year's accomplishments by setting the bar too high.

Below, a look at the seats in play, and where the GOP stands in each, as broken down by category:

The Goners: With AG Beau Biden's (D) decision not to run, Rep. Mike Castle (R) is the overwhelming favorite to take over a Dem-held seat in DE. And Sen. Byron Dorgan's (D) decision to retire gives Gov. John Hoeven (R) a nearly insurmountable lead over any Dem who decides to run.

The Open Seats: Dems have a better chance at holding open seats in IL and IN, though both states present them with difficulties. GOPers have a huge oppo file on IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D), and in a state with rampant corruption, that could hurt. A bid from Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) would give the party a fighting chance at Bayh's seat, but he's not even in the race yet. Both seats could prove Dem holds, or they could go south in a hurry. Both parties are holding their breath.

Veterans To Watch: Polls show Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) trailing virtually any GOP contender, and though his path to victory got a little wider this weekend when a Tea Party candidate got enough signatures to win a ballot spot, he still faces an uphill climb. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) has similar poll numbers, but in a state that could finally tilt to the GOP, it's hard to see how she survives.

The Primary Challenges: Sens. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Michael Bennet (D-CO) are safer than Reid and Lincoln -- but that's not saying much. Specter (or Rep. Joe Sestak, if he wins the Dem primary) would have a leg up on ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in a state that has trended Dem of late. Bennet (or ex-House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, if he wins the Dem primary) may face a tougher climb against ex-LG Jane Norton (R). Both races belong in the true toss-up category until the primaries are sorted out.

The Long Shots: Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) decision to retire made some Dems cheer; their replacement candidate, AG Dick Blumenthal (D), is much better-liked, and polls show him well ahead of either of the top 2 GOP contenders. And though GOPers make noise about their prospects in CA, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) still has a big lead even while GOP infighting increases. That makes both of these seats a stretch for the GOP.

The Last Hurrah: The GOP maintains it will recruit good candidates against Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Patty Murray (D-WA) and Russ Feingold (D-WI), and privately they are, in fact, working on some impressive names. But those names haven't made their bids public, and GOP strategists aren't optimistic on actually convincing them to make a race.

The Protectorates: Dems still have at least a few chances at winning back seats, given 4 GOPers who have already announced their retirements. A divisive GOP primary in NH will give Rep. Paul Hodes (D) a slight advantage, though he trails in recent polls. Another primary in KY could give a Dem a chance to run against Rep. Ron Paul's son, adding new levels of unpredictability that could be dangerous for the GOP. MO Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D) will give Rep. Roy Blunt (R) a tough race, and likely Dem nominee/OH LG Lee Fisher (D) has a fighting chance against ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R), though Portman has the monetary advantage.

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's announcement about developing nuclear power plants. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" both led with the capture of Taliban dep. commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) sat down with FNC's Bill O'Reilly 2/16 p.m. and discussed the recent "Family Guy" episode targeting her family.

Palin, on the "Family Guy" episode allegedly targeting her son, Trig: "This world is full of cruel, cold hearted people, who would do such a thing. I look at Trig and I see perfection. I see a precious little child already toddling around. You can see that he has a heart of gold. I also can see into the future that Trig is going to have a pretty tough, challenging life in front of him. He's going to face things special needs children will be facing, much more difficult than we ever will. So why make it tougher on the special needs community? That's what I thought when I first heard about this episode that really isn't funny."

More Palin: "And I asked Bristol, I said well, honey, what do you think about this? And Bristol gave me words that were very wise and very gracious. And they were such good words in terms of what her response was to this episode, that I Facebooked it today. And I'm like Bristol I will let your words speak for me because you're much more gracious and I guess forgiving of things like this than I could be. So on my Facebook has the comments from Bristol that kind of sum up the way I look at people who think that
things like this are funny."

Palin: "When is enough enough? And when are we going to be willing to say, you know, some things just aren't really funny. ... [Bristol]'s going to remind people that those in the special needs community truly are some of the most loving and compassionate people in the world. So why pile it on to them and make their lives even that much more challenging?" (FNC, 2/16).

After the jump, pols and pundits discuss Sen. Evan Bayh's (D-IN) decision to retire, and an interview with ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R-KY).

Good Wednesday morning, and happy Ash Wednesday. Got your CPAC tickets yet? Keep your screens tuned to Hotline OnCall for full coverage.

Here's Wednesday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make tomorrow's headlines today:

PRES. OBAMA: A year ago today, Obama signed a massive $787B stimulus measure into law, hoping the big-spending package, which also offered some tax cuts to working families, would kick the economy out of its current recession and keep the unemployment rate from spiraling out of control. The measure has produced, at best, mixed results.

Dems have spent the week arguing its successes, sending admin surrogates and members of Congress on the trail to hype big projects they say have created jobs. The WH will issue a report today detailing progress the bill has achieved.

But GOPers have had a field day with the legislation, especially given a CBS/NYT poll out last week that showed just 6% of Americans think the bill has created any jobs. Add to that comments from Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), who said Congress hasn't created any jobs in the last 6 months, and we can see the campaign ads being cut already. Dems have spent the last year explaining the stimulus bill, and given the dismal poll results, they'll have to do a better job if it's to become an asset, not an albatross.

CONSERVATIVES: We teased it up top, but conservatives are making the annual pilgrimage to DC for CPAC, the massive gathering of activists put on by the American Conservative Union. It's a chance for young activists to learn the political ropes, for older activists to share the latest techniques they've learned and for everyone to hear major speeches from their favorite candidates.

It's also an opportunity for possible WH '12 candidates to flex their muscles and show off their organizing ability. The major news that comes out of CPAC every year is a straw poll of possible WH contenders, giving an early indication of whose team is better at rounding up votes. The expectations are already set high for ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, who has a 3-year win streak on the line this year.

We've polled a host of influential conservatives, campaign operatives and CPAC veterans to test who they think will win, and the answers (which we'll post later today) reveal a party divided between passion and pragmatism. Could this year's CPAC preview the battle GOP primary voters will face when they pick a '12 nominee?

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) attracted 2 more challengers today in state Rep. Kristi Noem (R), who will announce her bid tonight at the Hughes County Lincoln Day Dinner in Pierre, and pastor Steve Hickey.

Already in the race are Sec/State Chris Nelson (R) and state Rep. Blake Curd (R), a surgeon. But in Noem, SD GOP insiders say they're getting the strongest possible challenge to Herseth Sandlin.

"My experiences as a wife, mother, farmer, rancher, small business owner, and South Dakotan have taught me foundational truths that will ensure I will remain steadfast in my resolve to do the people's will. I would be proud and honored to represent South Dakota in Congress. It's time our voice was heard," Noem said in a statement. "The Obama administration and Congressional Democrats have gotten out of control. Trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see are unacceptable. I am very disappointed that Rep. Herseth Sandlin has been voting for unfunded, trillion dollar spending bills and to continue trillion dollar bailout programs. She is not representing South Dakota."

Curd began the year with $163K in the bank and Nelson had just $38K to Herseth Sandlin's $362K. Dems point out that Noem starts out with low name recognition and no money and wonder whether it may be too late for her to make up that deficit. The filing deadline is still 6 weeks away, on Mar. 30, and the primary is on June 8, so there's time for more candidates to get in and shake up the field.

The NRCC has been beating up on Herseth Sandlin for the past several months while praising Curd and Nelson, but a SD Dem strategist posited that the GOP must not be happy with its prospects if the field keeps expanding. The strategist pointed out that Noem is "not pro-choice, which means she won't appeal to moderate women in the state."

Still, Noem, 38, could strike some of the same chords as the 39-year-old Herseth Sandlin. Both women grew up on family farms.

Herseth Sandlin, who hails from a political family, clerked in a U.S. District Court and ran the SD Farmers Union Foundation. Noem sat on the SD Soybean Association board and the SD Farm Service Agency State Committee, and in the state Senate rose to the number 2 GOP slot.

"Kristi Noem is an impressive candidate and her entrance into the race is a sign that South Dakota Republicans are increasingly enthusiastic about being able win this seat in November," an NRCC spokesperson said. Curd has moved up the NRCC's recruitment ladder and Nelson holds statewide office and has high name recognition, so the GOP is becoming more bullish on its prospects against Herseth Sandlin.

Since her election to a full term in '04, Herseth Sandlin has been considered nearly untouchable in her House seat and was courted by some party activists to take on the popular Sen. John Thune (R) or run for the seat Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is vacating. In the last 2 cycles, she carried her statewide district with nearly 70% of the vote, while President Obama garnered just 45%.

Ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R) will raise money for Milwaukee Co. exec. Scott Walker (R), the likely GOP nominee to replace retiring Gov. Jim Doyle (D), Walker's campaign announced today.

Bush will host a $250 per person reception at the Pfister Hotel in Milwaukee on March 8. Photos with Bush will go for $1K, while donors can sit in on a 30-minute roundtable discussion for $5K.

Though his brother isn't terribly popular, even among GOPers, Jeb Bush remains a prominent GOP leader, especially in the policy arena. Many see Bush's hand guiding ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in his SEN bid against Gov. Charlie Crist (R), Bush's successor; Bush's 2 sons have endorsed Rubio, but the ex-gov has made no formal statement.

Walked will likely face Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D) in the race for Doyle's seat.

CNBC host/columnist Larry Kudlow may not be in the race yet, but his op-ed in today's Washington Examiner sure reads like a stump speech.

Washington just doesn't get it.

Inside the Beltway, Democrats are sending a profoundly pessimistic message that only government knows best. But out there in the heartland there is an optimistic message that We the People know best. And that heartland optimism will not be stopped.

...

This is a moment for the GOP to send a message that it is the party of growth through across-the-board reductions in marginal tax rates -- for everyone. That includes large and small businesses, along with all individuals and families. All producers and investors should get lower tax rates. At a bare minimum, Republicans should be fighting hard to extend the George W. Bush tax cuts on the way to a longer-term goal of low-rate, flat-tax reform.

So no wonder we're witnessing a growing tea-party revolt. I call it tea-party, free-market populism. But one-party partisan stubbornness in Washington just won't listen to it. Democrats refuse to heed the message of the polls, or the election results in Virginia, New Jersey and -- of course -- Massachusetts. They simply will not acknowledge the meaning of Scott Brown's miracle win.

...

What do I think voters want? Traditional, commonsense, center-right free enterprise, which basically says to the government, "Please, let me keep more of what I earn and, please, just leave me alone."

The time has come for our government to get out of the way, allow the American people to prosper, create wealth, build businesses and advance technology, and let the United States be the No. 1 country in the world from now until forever.

It's called optimism.

Watch out, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Kudlow could be coming for you next.

DNC chair Tim Kaine will not heed a prominent Dem's call to step down, vowing to press on as head of the party's national committee in the face of a difficult political terrain.

"If you're in a leadership position, you're going to have your critics," Kaine said on a conference call with reporters. "I've been in elected office for 17 years, so I know the game. No, I'm proud of what we're doing. We're governing and we're engaged in politics in a very tough time. We knew that going in."

Last week, ex-VA Gov./ex-Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder (D) said Kaine was serving in the wrong position and should be replaced, as part of a larger replacement of Pres. Obama's political team.

"I am an admirer of Tim Kaine," Wilder wrote in an op-ed in Politico. "But a spate of recent losses in races that Democrats should have won underscores what has been obvious to me for a long time: The chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee is the wrong job for him."

Kaine acknowledged electoral difficulties, but he pointed to other successes -- winning 2 GOP-held House seats, robust fundraising and an unprecedented field program among them -- during his tenure.

"We've been able to do very solid work on the fundraising side, near-historic in a non-president year at the DNC, and we've put together the largest field organization to help our 2010 candidates through Organizing for America that we've ever had in a non-presidential year. We won a lot of races in the early part of '09, and hey, in the 2 governors races and Massachusetts, things didn't go our way," Kaine said.

"We know it's going to be a challenging and tough cycle, historically it normally is. But we're not panicked people, and when a couple of races don't go our way, you know, we don't panic. If we would, we never would have won the White House in '08," he added. "We think we've got a good plan and we've got a lot of people who are very energized about it. Critics will say what they want but we're going to keep plowing."

Kaine used the conference call to tout the one-year anniversary of the economic stimulus bill, and to criticize GOPers who have castigated the measure while publicly claiming credit for money it sent to their districts. Kaine's call is the latest in a series of Dem efforts to own the stimulus, from the Obama admin sending top surrogates to 3 dozen events this week to House Dems holding their own in-district events to tout economic progress.

Most Americans do not believe Pres. Obama deserves a second term in office, according to a new survey.

The poll showed just 44% of Americans say Obama deserves a second term after his first year in office, while 52% said he does not deserve 4 more years.

Meanwhile, fewer Americans think their incumbent members of Congress deserve to be re-elected now than thought so immediately before the '94 elections, giving Dems fresh reason to worry.

Just 50% of adults and 51% of registered voters say their member of Congress deserves another term in office, while 44% of both groups say he or she does not deserve another 2 years, according to the CNN/ORC poll. Prior to the '94 elections, 53% said their member deserved another chance.

Overall, only 34% of registered voters and 35% of adults say most members of Congress deserve another term. In the '94 survey, taken Nov. 2-6 of that year, 39% of all adults said most members deserved another chance to serve.

Registered voters favor the GOP candidate by a single point, 46%-45%. That's a significant shift from the '08 elections, when Dems had a 14-point advantage a month and a half before the Nov. elections.

Obama's approval rating stands at 49%, the poll shows, while 50% disapprove. That's just a single point higher than the lowest point Obama has scored -- 48% in a poll conducted Dec. 2-3.

The poll surveyed 1,023 adults between Feb. 12-15 for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Of those adults, 954 were registered voters, for another +/- 3% margin of error.

Pres. Obama's approval rating has plummeted during his first year in office, and most Americans say they are unhappy with his handling of key issues. But GOPers are not so quietly attacking Obama's remaining strength -- his handling of terrorism -- in an effort to undermine his approval ratings once and for all.

GOPers have used serious policy differences, like Obama's plan to close Guantanamo Bay, AG Eric Holder's decision to hold terrorism trials in New York City and reading Miranda rights to the Christmas Day bombing suspect, to paint a picture of a WH that doesn't take the threat of terrorism seriously.

Overall, 55% of Americans approve of Obama's handling of terrorism, according to a CBS/NYT poll released last week. That's higher than the 47% who approve of Obama's handling of foreign policy and well above those who approve of his handling of the economy (42%), health care (35%) and the budget deficit (31%). By attacking Obama's strongest point -- a tactic Karl Rove used to rob Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) of a key strength in '04 -- GOPers hope to force Dems to address an issue that has historically favored the GOP.

"There are some real and legitimate concerns about our national security that are a part of the GOP dialogue that I don't want to dismiss," said GOP strategist Rob Collins, head of the American Action Network. "Politically, [Obama] has a glass jaw on national security. He may be okay on the issue in the eyes of the American people right now, [but] if you look through a larger lens to examine his policies, there is a weakness."

GOP pollster Whit Ayers said voters credit Obama on terrorism at large, but that they dislike his actual policies, including the admin's plan to try terrorist suspects in civilian courts and the Christmas Day incident. Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell has relentlessly hammered the admin on its plans to close Guantanamo Bay.

The line of attack sounds much like that used against Kerry in '04, when the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth began running TV ads challenging Kerry's patriotism. And one of the beneficiaries of that strategy, ex-VP Dick Cheney, has become the most outspoken critic of the Obama admin on terrorism and national security. Cheney appeared again on a Sunday show this week to lob new charges.

"I think they need to do everything they can to prevent [a terrorist attack], and if the mindset is it's not likely, then it's difficult to mobilize the resources and get people to give it the kind of priority that it deserves," Cheney said on ABC's "This Week."

Dems have seemingly recognized the attack for what it is, and fought back, unlike Kerry, who let the Swift Boat attacks go unanswered for weeks. Appearing from Vancouver, VP Joe Biden shot back at Cheney on Sunday, pointing out GOP hypocrisy given the hundreds of trials of terrorism suspects in civilian courts during the Bush admin.

"Dick Cheney's a fine fellow, but he is not entitled to rewrite history without it being challenged. I don't know where he has been. Where was he the last 4 years of the last administration?" Biden asked on "Meet The Press."

But GOPers haven't just used terrorism to weaken Obama's numbers. Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) used the Christmas Day bombing attempt to draw a contrast between himself and AG Martha Coakley (D), and though the effort wasn't decisive, it put Coakley back on her heels.

Making Obama play defense on terrorism gives GOPers an opportunity to undermine the one area in which he maintains positive ratings. "His rating on terrorism is going south sooner rather than later. They are one more reading of Miranda rights away from slipping into the negative," Ayers said.

Updated at 12:23 p.m.

Restaurant owner Tamyra d'Ippolito (D) has enough signatures to make the ballot in the race to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), she told Hotline OnCall in a brief interview, but an official in a key district says she has failed to reach the threshold.

An official in Marion Co. (IN) tells Hotline OnCall d'Ippolito turned in just 3 signatures in the 7th CD, the district with the highest percentage of Dem voters. The noon deadline has passed, meaning d'Ippolito failed to meet the requirements to get on the ballot. She would have been required to submit 4,500 signatures, including at least 500 from each of the state's 9 districts.

Reached at her home, d'Ippolito said she was on her way out the door to drop off more signatures at the county clerk's office. "To my knowledge, yes we do. There's people putting in signatures as we speak," d'Ippolito said when asked if she has the signatures necessary to qualify for the ballot. "The answer is yes."

D'Ippolito's candidacy would have thrown a serious wrench in Dem hopes of keeping the seat. She would have prevented the state party from filling the vacancy with a candidate of their own, likely an experienced contender.

"We're going to have 4,500 signatures today, and we're going to keep getting signatures
today and tomorrow and all the way up until the election," d'Ippolito said. But because the counting process takes a long time, d'Ippolito said she would not know for sure if she has made the ballot for a while. "It's not an instantaneous process even though we're very used to that in American life. It takes days to weeks to count all these signatures, so we're not going to really have any idea for a while."

GOPers, sensing an opportunity, mobilized in some places to help d'Ippolito make the ballot. In a posting on her campaign website, d'Ippolito says she needs more signatures in the 8th CD, specifically in Terre Haute and Evansville. Instead, it was the 7th CD -- based around Indianapolis -- where she fell short.

Meanwhile, Dems are increasingly looking to Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as the candidate they want on the ballot to replace Bayh. House strategists are quietly beginning to prepare for his Senate bid, which means they will have to find another candidate to run in the competitive 8th district.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) welcomed his new foe into the race with a broadside, accusing ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) of "blatant lies and fabrications" as Hayworth kicked off his campaign.

"Sen. McCain understands that to earn the votes of hardworking Arizonans, you first have to respect them by telling the truth. Former Congressman Hayworth obviously disagrees, and it was sad to see him use blatant lies and fabrications to attack Sen. McCain when he 'officially' entered the race for U.S. Senate today," McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers said in a statement released late Monday.

"One would think that when asking Arizonans to entrust him to represent them in the U.S. Senate, Mr. Hayworth would have the decency to at least respect them enough to tell the truth. Instead, Mr. Hayworth has started his campaign with a litany of lies," Rogers added.

McCain's team has anticipated Hayworth's entry into the race since rumors began last year. They have already signaled they will hammer Hayworth for his record during his 12 years in the House, when Hayworth voted for bills that contained earmarks and broke a term-limits pledge.

In an appearance on MSNBC today, Hayworth fired back, calling McCain "panicked" over the challenge and accusing him of running a "scorched earth campaign." "I believe [AZ voters] will opt for a consistent conservative over the moderate who calls himself a maverick," Hayworth said.

Hayworth is angling for backing from Tea Party activists, but McCain is the one touting his fiscal discipline. Hayworth has spent months assaulting McCain for his stand on illegal immigration -- McCain backs a comprehensive approach while Hayworth favors an enforcement-first approach.

And McCain's camp also signaled they would push one of Hayworth's buttons, bringing up thousands in campaign contributions he received from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Hayworth has said he will bring up McCain's involvement in the Keating 5 scandal if McCain brought up Abramoff. Hayworth was never implicated in any of the investigations surrounding Abramoff's dealings, but the scandal cost Hayworth hundreds of thousands in legal bills.

"I'm surprised that John has gotten so panicked so early, because that's demonstrably false," Hayworth said, referring to the Abramoff charge. "Then again, he's got a staff that's pretty lax with the truth."

Hayworth also hinted at a Keating 5 attack. "Apparently, he believes there's one set of rules for John McCain and another set of rules for somebody else," he said.

Both candidates have launched their first campaign tours this week as they kick off their respective bids.

The Obama admin will dispatch key surrogates around the nation this week to mark the 1-year anniversary of the economic stimulus package, the WH announced today, further wrapping themselves in what has proven to be an unpopular piece of legislation.

Today, VP Biden is in Saginaw, MI, with SBA admin Karen Mills. HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebelius will be in Atlanta, while DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano is in VA and TX highlighting projects that have won $576M in stimulus grants.

Pres. Obama has an event at the WH tomorrow, while Ag. Sec. Tom Vilsack hosts a conference call, Interior Sec. Ken Salazar joins WA Gov. Chris Gregoire (D) in Seattle, Ed. Sec. Arne Duncan visits a school in Alexandria and VA Sec. Eric Shinseki has an event in Chillicothe, OH.

Transportation Sec. Ray LaHood hosts events throughout the week in Kansas City, Tucson and L.A., while Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has events slated for Pittsburgh and Wheeling, WV. HUD Sec. Shaun Donovan will be in Cincinnati on Thursday, AG Eric Holder will be in Charlotte, NC, on Friday and Energy Sec. Steven Chu will be in Windsor, CO the same day.

As Dems try to make the elections a choice between the 2 parties, their logic becomes clear; Americans still blame the Bush admin (41%) or Congress (24%) for the state of the U.S. economy. Dems have invoked Pres. Bush's name, but voters still hold the current admin responsible for getting the country out of its jobs crisis.

The events -- more than 35 in all, according to a WH release -- come as Congressional Dems spend recess touting the stimulus's success in their districts. And the public clearly needs more evidence that the bill has worked; just 6% of Americans said the bill has already created new jobs, according to last week's CBS/NYT poll, while 41% say the bill will eventually create jobs.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) sold out his opponents, RNC chair Michael Steele said in a harsh statement reacting to Bayh's decision to retire instead of seeking a 3rd term.

"Sen. Bayh announced today he won't seek reelection, claiming to be disenchanted with the political process," Steele said in a statement released Monday. "After Democrats spent billions of taxpayer dollars on a failed stimulus and voted to spend billions more for their unpopular government-run health care plan, I think it's fair to say that Americans are disenchanted as well."

"The timing isn't a coincidence either," Steele added. "The fact of the matter is Sen. Evan Bayh and moderate Democrats across the country are running for the hills because they sold out their constituents and don't want to face them at the ballot box."

The statement was the harshest on-the-record quip to come out in the wake of Bayh's surprise announcement yesterday.

Privately, Dems were even more stinging, criticizing the incumbent for leaving them without a backup plan. Without Bayh on the ballot, Dems will have to pick a replacement candidate if, as expected, no Dem makes the ballot later this week.

"World News" led with Sen. Evan Bayh's (D-IN) decision to retire. "Evening News" led with the new offensive against the Taliban in Afghanistan. "Nightly News" led with Bayh's decision.

IN Dem Party chair Dan Parker went on the "Rachel Maddow Show" 2/15 p.m.

Parker, on whether he had an idea Bayh was going to retire from the Senate: "No, I did not. He did call me this weekend to let me know of his decision. We were actually planning on doing television ads this week, filming them, and we had the petition drive done and ready to file. But he came to his decision this weekend and let me know."

Parker, on how IN Dems will choose a candidate if there's no primary: "I've been taught never to assume anything in politics. ... There will be a Democratic nominee for the United States Senate. And our attempts are going to be to field the strongest possible candidate that we can to make sure that Hoosiers are represented with someone that shares our values."

Parker, on who is being considered to replace Bayh: "I don't think that we should exclude anyone. I'm trying not to mention any names, because I want this to be an open process as we move forward. I have been contacted by numerous people that are interested in running. But I think that it's a little too early to start talking about specific names, because we need to get past tomorrow's deadline first. And then we'll move forward with all parts of the party to talk about who the best possible person is to be the nominee."

After the jump, more from Parker and pundits on Bayh's decision, as well as an interview with ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ).

Good Tuesday morning, and happy Mardi Gras. We're giving up waking up early for Lent.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter this news cycle:

SEN. EVAN BAYH: Bayh's decision not to seek a 3rd term, announced yesterday, has Dems across the country reeling as they consider whether their majority in the upper chamber is now at risk. Bayh seemed to have it all -- great poll numbers, a hefty $13M in the bank and a centrist profile that would have made him a lock for re-election.

But he was sick of Congress. "I simply reached the conclusion that I could get more done ... by doing something in the private sector," Bayh said this morning on "Good Morning America."

Now, Dems are likely left to fill the spot with a candidate after the filing deadline. Rep. Brad Ellsworth has gotten most of the buzz, but Dems will need a top candidate if they are going to keep a seat in what remains a red state. GOPers don't have the best possible contender -- ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) has had a rough roll-out, and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) has never raised the kind of money that would let him compete on a state-wide level.

SENATE MAJ. LEADER HARRY REID: Bayh is the 3rd senator -- along with Sens. Judd Gregg (R-NH) and Byron Dorgan (D-ND) -- to cite the lack of comity and bipartisanship in their exits. Sources told Roll Call's David Drucker that Reid's decision to pull a bipartisan jobs bill from consideration played a role in Bayh's thinking, and Bayh has used his retirement announcement to put down those on both extremes.

"The extremes of both parties have to be willing to accept compromises," Bayh said this morning. "All too often recently, we've been getting nothing."

Sen. Evan Bayh's (D-IN) decision to retire has sent Dems scrambling to figure out who will carry the party's standard -- and how to go about getting that person on the ballot in the first place.

Candidates running for statewide office in IN have to collect 500 signatures from each of the state's 9 districts. Those signatures are due by tomorrow.

Once signatures are in, candidates have until Friday to officially file for office.

Bayh could still file to run, then drop out. But if he does not file his signatures tomorrow, no other Dem is expected to collect the required 500 signatures by then, meaning Dems will get the chance to pick their own nominee. Some DC Dems say the process is the best-case scenario short of having Bayh on the ballot for a 3rd term; allowing the party to pick a nominee will avoid a primary.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is the early name Dem strategists are throwing around. He easily beat ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) in '06 to capture a centrist district, and he has cut a moderate swath in his 2 terms in the House.

Still, if Ellsworth runs, that opens up a vulnerable House seat GOPers would make a top target. Bayh's decision could ultimately topple 2 Dem-held seats, making his retirement one of the biggest blows Dems have suffered this year.

Ed Feigenbaum, an IN political analyst, pointed to ex-Rep./Amb. Tim Roemer, who serves as the top U.S. official in India; ex-Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson (D), who now works at Eli Lilly; ex-Sec/State/ex-Bayh CoS Joe Hogsett (D); Indiana Univ. athletic director/ex-Bayh CoS Fred Glass; ex-Purdue Univ. pres. Martin Jischke; and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel (D) as possible candidates.

One IN Dem source said Bayh may save his money and run for a 3rd term as GOV. Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is barred by term limits from running again when his term expires in '12.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will not seek a 3rd term in the Senate next year, according to a Dem source, handing Dems yet another setback as they struggle to salvage their damaged ship.

Bayh, elected statewide 5 times, will become the 5th Senate Dem not to seek another term. His decision to step aside creates an open seat in IN, a usually-red state that broke the mold in '08 by voting narrowly for Pres. Obama.

Last week, ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), who held Bayh's seat before retiring in '98, announced he would run for the seat. Ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) had already announced his own candidacy.

A recent poll taken for the liberal DailyKos website showed Bayh easily beating both Coats and Hostettler. And Bayh ended the year with $13M in the bank, far ahead of any potential challengers.

Bayh's decision will set Dems scrambling for a replacement. The deadline to file to reach the ballot is Friday, meaning any Dem considering running for the seat must make a decision quickly.

Dems have a reasonable bench in the Hoosier State, and any of the 3 Dems who beat GOPers in '06 -- Reps. Joe Donnelly (D), Brad Ellsworth (D) and Baron Hill (D) -- would fit the mold as centrists in a center-right state. Hill has said he is likely to run for GOV in '12. Dems may also turn to ex-Gov. Joe Kernan (D) or ex-DNC chair Joe Andrew.

Dem sources immediately pointed to Ellsworth as the likeliest candidate to replace Bayh on the ballot.

IA Gov. Chet Culver (D) trails his two best-known GOP challengers, and he trails ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) by a whopping 20 points, according to a new Des Moines Register poll.

The survey was taken Jan. 31-Feb. 3 by Des Moines-based Selzer & Co. Selzer surveyed 805 adults for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. The GOV matchups were taken among a subsample of 531 LVs, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%. The poll tested Culver against Branstad, state Rep./ex-state House Speaker Chris Rants (R), state Rep. Rod Roberts (R) and '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R).

General Election Matchups

Branstad          53%         Culver            41%
Culver            33          Rants             37
Not vote           5          Not vote           8
Undec              9          Undec             14

Culver            41%         Vander Plaats     43%
Roberts           36          Culver            40
Not vote           8          Not vote           5
Undec             15          Undec             12

(Results of the previous Selzer/Register poll, conducted in Nov., are available here for Hotline subscribers.)

Ahead of Pres. Obama's proposed health care summit with GOPers, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is stepping up to the plate today with a Washington Post op-ed in which he lays out five "common-sense" proposals for reform that he says will "tackle runaway health-care costs."

Pawlenty frames the health care debate as an either-or choice between Dems' plans, which he argues focus "solely on expanding access," and his own, which would prioritize cost-cutting. Health care still needs reform, T-Paw writes, but Obama and cong. Dems would take the country "in the wrong direction" due to their overarching emphasis on "more mandates and government spending."

Pawlenty's alternative is a five-point plan for reform that would incentivize patients' decisions by making quality and costs more transparent; institute a performance-based pay system for doctors; establish uniform liability limits; facilitate an interstate insurance pool; and reform the employer-based system that would allow workers to carry their coverage from job-to-job.

Ever since announcing last Jun. that he would not run for a third term as gov. -- and stepping up his presence on the nat'l stage -- Pawlenty has made health care a signature point on which to hammer Dems. He's used the issue to further carve out a niche for himself among potential WH '12ers as a leading voice for gov't cost-cutting and fiscal responsibility.

It's also Pawlenty's way of making a clear distinction between himself and another leading WH '12er, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who during his tenure as gov. helped to establish a near-universal health care system in MA that has come under criticism for ratcheting up costs.

Expect to see more of this argument as T-Paw brings his message to Romney's neighboring NH, where he's slated to headline the Manchester GOP's Lincoln-Reagan Day Dinner in late Mar.

Wharton Co. GOP chair Debra Medina (R) started the week surging, thanks to 2 debate performances, and many wondered whether she would shock the political establishment and make it to the TX GOV runoff. But for every rise, there is a fall, and Medina's refusal to rule out government involvement in the Sept. 11 attacks let both her better-funded rivals pounce.

A poll earlier this week showed us the "before" picture -- Gov. Rick Perry (R) led the GOP primary with 42% to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) 30% to Medina's 17%. With Medina looking less likely to win the primary, GOPers still run ahead of likely Dem nominee/ex-Houston Mayor Bill White, according to the Research 2000 poll conducted for the liberal Daily Kos website.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between Feb. 8-10 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Perry, Hutchison and Medina were tested against White.

General Election Matchups
Perry        46    Hutchison   47
White        42    White       41

Medina       44
White        43

It's not like White has no shot at all. Perry only won his second full term in office, in '06, with 39% of the vote, ahead of ex-Rep. Chris Bell (D), ex-Comp. Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) and entertainer Kinky Friedman (I).

But to get to the general, Perry -- or Hutchison -- may face an added election. If Medina, who is running to the right of both Perry and Hutchison, slides enough, Perry could hit the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff. But if Hutchison and Perry make it to the runoff, it's as if the millions the two have spent on the race almost haven't mattered.

A test of 400 GOP LVs, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%, shows Perry leading Hutchison in a runoff by a 43%-33% margin -- with 24% of voters still undecided.

If neither candidate gets 50% of the vote in the Mar. 2 primary, the top 2 vote-getters advance to an Apr. 13 runoff.

House Dems will spend the Pres. Day recess marking the 1-year anniversary of the $787B stimulus act, embracing a bill that has them in some political hot water.

Wedsnesday marks the anniversary of the bill's passage, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi is encouraging Dems to hold events touting its success. As polls show the economy still tops voters' list of pressing concerns, members' votes on the bill itself could prove decisive.

"The Recovery Act is a hallmark achievement of this Congress," Pelosi wrote in a memo to House Dems, obtained by Hotline OnCall. In the memo, Pelosi says the bill has created or saved 2M jobs and will "support" 3.5M jobs by the end of the year -- numbers that GOPers reject as invented.

Pelosi's memo offers suggestions for events highlighting the stimulus's impact, talking points issued by VP Biden's office and information on jobs, small business benefits and infrastructure projects by district. Each office also got district-specific data about the stimulus bill's impact on local areas.

House GOPers voted unanimously against the stimulus bill, and only 3 GOPers in the Senate -- one of whom is now a Dem -- voted for it. The GOP has been able to drive down Dem numbers as unemployment continued to rise over WH projections, and even though the unemployment rate has now dropped to 9.7%, the economy is still shedding jobs.

Most analysts still say indicators are trending upward, but that the economy will remain in bad shape through election day. If Dems can convince the public that the stimulus package did something to boost the economy, members will have a fighting chance in Nov. But as the GOP hammers a very simple message, asking where jobs are, Dems face a daunting task in achieving that goal.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY
Meet the Press hosts VP Biden. The roundtable will feature New York Times' David Brooks, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, ex-Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN), and Rep. Aaron Schock (R-IL).

Face the Nation hosts Biden.

This Week hosts Dick Cheney. The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, Daily Beast's Peter Beinart, New Yorker's Jane Mayer and Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot.

Fox News Sunday hosts NSA Jim Jones and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). The roundtable will feature Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, Washington Post's Ceci Connolly, GOP strategist Liz Cheney and NPR's Juan Williams.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

State of the Union hosts Jones, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ).

According to a just-released CNN news bulletin, "effective immediately," Tom Bettag will join "State of the Union with Candy Crowley" and "Reliable Sources" as sr. EP. CNN sr. VP of programming/DC bureau chief David Bohrman made the announcement today.

"Adding such a renowned producer as Tom to CNN's lineup further reflects the network's commitment to serious journalism," said Bohrman. "Candy now will be a member of a very exclusive team of greats -- such as Ted Koppel and Dan Rather -- who have had the opportunity to work with Tom."

Bettag also weighed in on his new position: "For years, Candy has been one of my favorite reporters. She's not only tough and fair, but also brings a breath of fresh air to Sunday morning talk. I look forward to joining Candy and the team. And I'm thrilled to be part of, what I consider, to be the preeminent news organization in the country."

Prior to joining the CNN team, Bettag has been the EP for "CBS Evening News with Dan Rather," ABC's "Nightline with Ted Koppel" and Discovery Channel's "Koppel on Discovery."

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will launch his first campaign swing of the year this weekend, the latest sign he is taking a challenge from conservative ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) seriously.

McCain will make stops in Scottsdale and Tempe -- the bases of Hayworth's old House district -- on Saturday and Monday. He will head to Thatcher, Flagstaff and Yuma through Wednesday, speaking at Lincoln Day lunches and dinners for local GOP committees.

On Thursday, McCain will host a town hall meeting with Col. Bud Day and Lt. Col. Orson Swindle, 2 former POWs who spent time with McCain on the pres. campaign trail. The following day, McCain will attend 2 events with fellow Sen. Jon Kyl.

McCain has moved aggressively to stem Hayworth's challenge. The incumbent is already running statewide radio ads, including one that hits Hayworth by name for his voting record in Congress, and earlier this week he announced endorsements from the 3 AZ GOPers in the House and from conservative activist Grover Norquist.

Hayworth will kick off his own statewide tour on Monday, with stops in Phoenix, Sun City, Chandler, Tucson and Sahuarita. The following 2 days, Hayworth will stop in Yuma, Prescott, Payson, Gold Canyon and Mesa.

Hayworth has been raising money with the help of Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio and hiring staff. Hayworth's campaign will be managed by Jason Rose, a veteran GOP strategist in the state, and he's hired conservative blogger Shane Wikfors to manage his field operation.

Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) during the last month, Bouchard is sticking to a my-record-is-better-than-yours defense against Dems and his fellow GOPers, even as at least one outside group has run radio and billboard ads attacking his experience.

"I've never been the person to disparage other candidates," said Bouchard. "That's just not what I do."

If his past statewide race, an '06 SEN bid, is any guide, he'll be the type of candidate to run "aw shucks" positive ads without nodding to his opposition from the right.

Bouchard told Hotline OnCall that no other candidate in the GOP field runs a government office as big as his. But critics hit him for growing the size of the sheriff's department even as he runs on cutting taxes and creating jobs.

"I see myself as the one candidate that's got the very specific background as being the one candidate ready to do the job on the first day," said Bouchard.

He casts himself as an outsider with insider knowledge. Bouchard said his experience in the public sector would help him as governor more than, for instance, venture capitalist Rick Snyder's (R) private-sector experience because "half the time, you're tackled on the 5-yard line by the home team."

What that means is members of the governor's own party can oppose the governor for what whatever reason, so the next governor needs to know the ropes of policy-making. Bouchard claims he's the best fit to build legislative alliances.

"It's not a slam dunk that you have their vote on any given issue," he said of his fellow GOPers.

Compared to his '06 loss to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), being an executive "really goes directly" into Bouchard's "skill set," he said. "I served in the Michigan legislature, faced issues head on ... I know the process, the system, and know how we dealt with [problems] successfully before because I was a part of it."

He would not say if he thought MI Dems would hold on to their legislative majorities, but he did mention that's where his past "legislative success comes into play.

VP Biden is the keynote speaker at a major fundraiser this morning on behalf of Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) as he treks north for the start of the Olympic Games.

En route to Vancouver, Biden stopped off at the Westin Hotel in Seattle to help Murray prepare for her bid for a 4th term. Murray already has almost $5.2M in the bank, according to FEC reports.

More than 1K people packed the hotel ballroom, according to 2 sources who attended the event. Tickets cost $150 to $250, meaning Murray raised well over $150K on the morning.

Murray does not have a top-tier GOP challenger as she did 6 years ago, when she beat then-Rep. George Nethercutt (R) by a 55%-43% margin. Earlier this week, state Sen. Don Benton (R) became the highest-profile GOPer to announce he would run against Murray, but most observers still rate the incumbent as the overwhelming favorite.

Later today, Biden will lead the U.S. delegation to the opening ceremonies of the Olympics in Vancouver, a short flight north of Seattle. Biden will be joined by his wife, Amb. David Jacobson, WH senior advisor Valerie Jarrett and Olympic gold medalists Mike Eruzione, Peggy Fleming and Vonetta Flowers as part of the official delegation.

It's the reason she has the background and financial ability to run for office, but it could also prove her biggest liability. Either way, ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) has questions to answer over the company she built into a global empire.

Over the last week, McMahon has had to explain a mentally handicapped character, and in an appearance this morning on MSNBC, McMahon answered more questions about the company's steroid policy than she did about the jobs bill making its way through Congress.

McMahon's GOP foes are happy to pass around clips delving into the less-than-senatorial side of WWE, previewing some of the negative ads sure to come her way if she wins the primary and goes on to face AG Dick Blumenthal (D). Shortly after her appearance today, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons's (R) camp emailed around a research document on the history of scrutiny of the WWE over its steroid policy.

McMahon has used her business history to bolster her credentials; spokesperson Ed Patru said running the business had given her "the ability to balance budgets, to create jobs and to exercise fiscal discipline, not just in rhetoric but in practice." But she has also been forced to downplay the seriousness of the business as well.

"It's a wonderful product that -- you know, it's fiction," she said this morning when Lawrence O'Donnell harangued her over steroids. McMahon also pointed to safety measures WWE instituted that have been adopted by the NFL and other sports leagues.

Having business experience is one thing, but having run the WWE is a boon to opposition researchers on all sides. It's not that McMahon wants to talk about WWE, it's that her background is so unique -- outside of ex-MN Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) -- that McMahon gets questions on it wherever she goes. She spent far more time discussing wrestling on MSNBC today than she did talking about any issues.

Asked whether WWE has proven more of a liability than a benefit, Patru said the company is still a net-positive.

"Linda has not shied away from taking any WWE questions. Clearly, the totality of her experience relative to WWE is an asset to this campaign. It is a story of a company that started off at rock bottom and grew to become a major Connecticut employer," he said. Voters "are clearly able to differentiate real-world issues from the soap opera and the scripted entertainment that is WWE."

The novelty factor is one thing: It gets McMahon an instant audience, and even a following. But the drawbacks are myriad; from steroids to a mentally handicapped wrestler, the reams of opposition research could help define McMahon before she has a chance to do so. Add to that the number of ex-wrestlers who have come out in opposition to McMahon -- and ex-employees who spit venom over her candidacy are far more attractive to the media than former wrestlers who sing her praises -- and it's hard not to imagine WWE helping McMahon rise, only to hasten her fall.

After the jump, McMahon's complete appearance on MSNBC this morning.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is a Granite kind of guy. The potential WH '12 contender said Friday he will head back to NH for a major party fundraiser in Manchester later this month.

Pawlenty will headline the Lincoln-Reagan Day Dinner for the Manchester GOP, he announced today via a note on his Facebook page. The dinner is slated for Mar. 25.

It's Pawlenty's 2nd visit to the state since he formed his PAC last Oct. He held a fundraiser for GOPers in the state senate on Dec. 16.

Manchester accounted for about 6% of the state's GOP primary voters in the '08 WH primary, according to a look at the NH Sec/State's official election results.

Your Hotline OnCall editor reports in this week's National Journal:

Sensitive to Democratic attempts to label the GOP as the "Party of No," several leading national Republicans are quietly working behind the scenes to develop an informal platform from which to launch a 2010 national campaign and, they hope, take back at least one chamber of Congress.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, sometimes called Republicans' smartest tactician, takes the opposite tack. He believes that, given the policies being pushed by the Democrats, his party should embrace the mantle of opposition. Because Barbour chairs the Republican Governors Association, his advice is likely to carry considerable weight as his party heads into the midterm elections.

In an interview with National Journal, Barbour warned fellow Republicans not to fall into a trap that they managed to avoid in 1994: turning the midterm election into a choice between parties rather than a referendum on the party in control. "The idea that just being against bad policy will end up as bad politics is wrong," Barbour said. "When the American people know an administration is trying to cram bad policy down their throat, they want somebody to stop it. And Republicans have worked very hard and had some success" in derailing Democratic legislation.

In response to Democrats' "Party of No" charges, House GOP Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia has said that Republicans will follow an 80-20 strategy, attacking 80 percent of the time and offering their own policy prescriptions the remaining 20 percent. House GOP leaders have asked Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California to draft an updated Contract With America.

Barbour argues, though, that if Republicans release a national agenda early this year, they will just give Democrats something to attack. In 1994, the year the GOP seized the House and the Senate, House Republicans did not unveil the original Contract With America until autumn.

The contract's role is often exaggerated. House candidates who signed on merely pledged that if their party won control of the chamber, it would schedule votes on certain conservative priorities, including congressional term limits, a balanced-budget amendment, and cuts to 95 federal programs. Most voters paid no attention to the Republicans' plan, Barbour said.

Check out more from the story, profiling the man at the nexus of both '94 (when he was RNC chair) and '10 (when he chairs the RGA), at NationalJournal.com.

It doesn't matter if you're Pres. Obama or a member of Congress -- if you're anywhere near DC, your approval ratings are sinking like a rock.

A new CBS/New York Times poll shows Americans are tired of DC. Obama's approval rating stands at 46%, down 4 points from Jan. Congress's rating is a dismal 15%, down from 23% last month. And 81% of Americans think it's time for someone new to get a chance in Congress, while just 8% say most members deserve re-election.

GOPers have made a point to avoid criticizing Pres. Obama directly, fearing a backlash because of his personal popularity. But even that rating is falling; only 39% view him favorably, down from 50% in July. His unfavorable rating is up to 34%, an 11-point gain, over the same period.

Voters continue to pick Dems as the party they trust to do a better job on most issues, but for the first time in recent years a plurality -- 42% -- say they trust the GOP to better handle the economy, while just 37% picked Dems. That's a stark change from Oct., when Dems held a 47%-29% advantage on the economy.

Dem advantages on other issues have shrunk as well. The party now has a 17-point edge on health care, down from a 39-point lead in June And the 11-point Dec. edge Dems enjoyed when voters were asked which party was most likely to create new jobs is down to 6 points now. All the while, Dems' approval rating has dropped 15 points since June, to 42%, while GOPers have seen their ratings rise by 7 points -- though they still have a terrible 35%-57% fav/unfav rating.

Voters clearly want something to get done -- 72% said Obama should compromise to solve the country's problems, and 74% said they want the Congressional GOP to do the same. And an even 50% say they believe the filibuster rule should change, including a 49% plurality of independents. 44% believe the filibuster rule should remain in effect.

But not all is lost for Dems, as some poll numbers suggest the party has the right argument as Congress begins to take up regulatory reform. 56% believe the government should increase regulations on banks and financial institutions, while 36% disagree. Dems will also make an issue of Pres. Bush, pinning the blame for the economic collapse on the previous admin in hopes that voters will give them more time; risky as that may be, 31% say the Bush admin is responsible for the state of the economy, while another 23% blame Wall Street and financial institutions. Only 7% blame the Obama admin.

And as Dems try to make the midterms a choice between the 2 parties, they have some good contrast points. 60% say Obama understands the problems of average Americans, while just 35% say the same about GOPers. 62% say Obama is trying to work with GOPers, with just 29% saying they are trying to work with the WH.

Ex-CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) received 2 key labor union endorsements this week, less than a day after his primary rival, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), made a play to rally them to his side.

The CO Teamsters and UFCW announced that they are throwing their weight behind Romanoff in the Dem primary, citing their "long-standing relationship" with him. The 2 are among the largest unions in the state.

"Andrew Romanoff was always straight with us," CO Teamsters pres. Steve Vairma said in a statement, taking a veiled jab at Bennet over his less-than-clear stand on card check. "We didn't see eye to eye on every issue, but his door was always open, and we could trust him to tell us the truth."

CO Gov. Bill Ritter (D) appointed Bennet in '09 to fill the vacancy created by then-Sen. Ken Salazar's (D) nomination as Interior Sec., passing over Romanoff in a move that took many in CO political circles by surprise. Romanoff is now waging a spirited, if uphill, primary challenge against Bennet for the seat.

While the endorsements give Romanoff's bid a lift, they also reveal Bennet's fraught ties with a key constituency.

Bennet, whose relationship with CO unions has been strained due to his refusal to state a position on the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), attempted to burnish his labor cred 2/9 by voting in favor of NLRB nominee Craig Becker, who had come under fire from business groups for being too cosy with labor. Becker's nomination was blocked 52-33, but Bennet's vote was an indication that his camp is taking union support seriously in light of Romanoff's challenge.

Romanoff has offered a less-than-full-throated endorsement of EFCA, saying that he supports the legislation except for the provision to do away with the secret ballot. But that was apparently enough to entice at least 2 of the state's unions to make an endorsement at this early stage of the game.

When it comes to the money race, Bennet trounces Romanoff, outraising his rival $1.1M+ to $337K in the 4thQ '09 to amass an impressive $3.5M war chest that dwarfs Romanoff's $480K CoH.

That lead will only be extended next week, when Pres. Obama is slated to headline 3 events for Bennet in the state.

But Romanoff is not rolling over quietly. Despite being outraised, his camp is touting the fact that he received money from more donors than Bennet in the 4thQ -- a silver lining, albeit a thin one.

And in response to Obama's planned visit, he penned a letter to CO Dem Party Chair Pat Waak late last week asking the state party to insist on a separate Obama event for Romanoff supporters. That request was rebuffed.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with Bill Clinton's admission to a NYC hospital.

NY Gov. David Paterson (D) went on "LKL" 2/11 p.m.

Paterson, on what's been going on: "For the last two weeks, I've been depicted in unflattering ways. The predicate of all of this is a New York Times profile piece ... not yet printed. But was described by aspects of the media sourcing the Times as being a bombshell that will drive the governor out of office because of a scandal. Now the information that was justifying this predicted outcome manifested itself in salacious and outrageous charges that only uninformed sources could produce."

Paterson, on the Times saying it's not responsible for other news outlets and what they're reporting: "I take them at their word."

More Paterson: "I'm not a journalist. But I am an elected official. And I think I have a right to say this. The human decency, if not journalists ethics, I think would compel an organization when they see a person being slandered for over two weeks now -- I've been waiting for three weeks for this article to come out -- to clear the air and at least say that the charges that are being made are not in the perimeters of our investigation."

After the jump, more from Paterson, as well as commentary on Clinton and an interview with MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Good Friday morning, and welcome back to work. But what's this? There's a pile of to-dos on your desk and a fresh distraction! We can't wait for a glut of U.S. medals at the Vancouver games, which kick off tonight.

Here's Friday's Starting Lineup, previewing the storylines we'll read and people we'll hear from this weekend:

RETIREES: Boy, for 2 consecutive snow days and not much going on in Congress, we sure had a lot of news this week. Reps. Vern Ehlers (R-MI), Diane Watson (D-CA) Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) and Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) all announced their decisions to retire. What's more, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart will give up his seat to run in his brother's district.

GOPers have been waiting for a Dem sprint for the exits for months, but that has yet to materialize. Instead, More than 10% of the GOP conference has decided to hang 'em up -- some for medical reasons or family considerations. The list of retirees, though, includes some who would have had much to gain if the GOP takes back Congress -- giving skeptics reason to question whether the party is really confident in its ability to pick up the 40 seats it needs to win back control.

That's the way Dems spin it, at least. Take a look at the seats actually up for grabs and you'll see more competitive seats on Dems' side than on the GOP's. NH-02, LA-03, PA-07, WA-03, AR-01, AR-02, KS-03, TN-06 and TN-08 are all Dem-held open seats the GOP will target. DE-AL, IL-10, FL-12, FL-21 and FL-25 are the only GOP-held seats Dems will go after.

THE GOP AGENDA: Make no mistake, a great way to get under a GOPer's skin is to suggest that theirs is the "party of No," as Dems have charged. They don't want to admit it, but that gauls the GOP as much as Dems hate being called "the Democrat Party."

There is an effort under way to craft a GOP platform on par with the Contract with America, and some of the initiatives will be obvious -- calls for transparency, sweeping tax cuts and making health care available across state lines will make the list, we're betting. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is leading the effort, but it's in the very early stages, and don't expect a lot of leaks: GOP staffers are privately worried they will be fired if they discuss even the most basic details of the plan in the works.

The AP is reporting tonight that Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) will retire after his 8th term in office. He taped a video message explaining his decision.

Kennedy has never been in any particular danger in his Providence-based seat; after winning his first race with 54%, he never received less than 60% in any subsequent re-election bid.

But the NRCC was targeting him this cycle, and it added his challenger -- state Rep. John Loughlin (R) -- to its "Young Guns" program. Loughlin had $110K in the bank at the end of the year.

Still, in a CD that gave Pres. Obama 65%, Dems will hold an advantage in an open seat contest. In fact, while it's usually more difficult for any party to defend an open seat, a fresh face may give Dems a better chance to hold this CD than with Kennedy, who has had to deal with his share of personal problems over the years.

Kennedy lost his father, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) to cancer last year.

Kennedy is the 13th Dem to announce his retirement; GOPers will have to defend 19 open seats.

NV LG Brian Krolicki (R) has decided not to run to challege Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid. In a conf. call this afternoon with reporters, Krolicki said he would run for re-election.

Krolicki: "It's been quite a month in this journey of exploring running for the U.S. Senate." But, he said, he believes there are several candidates capable of beating Reid. "I officially call [the primary] the Republican scrum at this point because of all of the good folks."

As the field developed last year, political observers believed that Krolicki could be the front-runner in the GOP contest and might have the best shot of beating Reid. Asked about his endorsement plans, Krolicki said he wouldn't be announcing any endorsements yet but that he will wait to see which of the 12 candidates rises to front-runner status.

He mentioned his close personal relationships with ex-state Sen./ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R) and businessman Danny Tarkanian (R) and his working relationship with state Sen. Mark Amodei (R), and he added that businessman John Chachas (R) has "wonderful ideas."

As for whether the GOP leadership played a role in his decision, Krolicki said, "This all got loud when [NRSC Chairman John] Cornyn said he had my contact information in his suit pocket" after Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) victory last month. "So much for doing due diligence below the radar screen."

More Krolicki:"I had confidential conversations with the senators," and added that he would keep it confidential. "I will say they did not ask me to get out of this race."

Asked if he would seek Sen. John Ensign's (R-NV) seat if the embattled GOPer chooses not to run in '12, Krolicki declined to talk about Ensign's situation. But, he reiterated, "If I do my job well, maybe I'll have other opportunities."

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), through cultural imagery and policy proposals, is positioning herself as a tribune of beer-track GOPers, who tend to be populist, socially conservative and profoundly antagonistic toward DC, writes Ron Brownstein.

If she runs, she could widen class fissures in the GOP coalition -- especially if the race comes down to her and Mitt Romney, the putative front-runner, whose support tilted toward college-educated wine-track Republicans in his 2008 presidential campaign.

As a Republican presidential primary candidate, Palin would have formidable advantages, beginning with a passionate base and an unrivaled allure for the cameras. If Palin runs, she will likely rely more on blue-collar voters than on wine-track GOPers.

Palin's elevation of the instinctive wisdom of heartland Americans over the rarefied knowledge of egghead elites, in her speech at the Tea Party convention last weekend, echoed conservative arguments against Democrats dating back to Adlai Stevenson and the 1950s. But it's easy to imagine Palin trying to consolidate beer-track Republicans by directing the same attacks against Romney--a wealthy and modulated former management consultant who radiates expertise from his crisply starched shirts to his imperturbable hair.

If Palin ever takes the leap from celebrity to presidential candidate, the populist guns that conservatives have aimed against Democrats for decades could be loudly brandished inside the Republican tent.

Read Brownstein's look at Palin's potential to appeal to key GOP voters here.

Both Dem and GOP members of Congress expect the Senate majority to lose seats in the upper chamber, according to a survey of insiders.

This week's National Journal Insider's Poll surveyed 32 Dem members of Congress and 27 GOP members of Congress, asking how many seats the party will gain or lose this year. Dems believe their party will lose an average of 4 seats, while GOPers believe they will pick up 7 seats.

How Many Seats Will Dems Gain/Lose?
                  Dem GOP
Gain/no change     0%  0%
Lose 1 or 2       19   0
Lose 3 or 4       41  11
Lose 5 or 6       25  22
Lose 7 or 8       13  56
Lose 9 or more     3  11

"Everyone knows it's going to be a tough fall for Democratic incumbents," one Dem insider said. "The one silver lining of the debacle that was the Massachusetts special election last month is that Democratic Senate incumbents know they're in for a tough fight and are preparing accordingly, which should help save some, but not all, of these Senate seats."

Even GOP pessimists believe their party faces more of an upside than a downside. "That number is more likely to go up than down as we move toward the election," said one GOPer who predicted the party would only pick up 4 seats.

Find a list of Dem and GOP Insiders after the jump.

A look at remembrances for the late Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-TX), who passed away yesterday at the age of 76:

"Larger-than-life" Wilson, whose efforts to fund Afghanistan's resistance to the Soviet Union in the '80s were made famous by the book and movie "Charlie Wilson's War," died 2/10 of heart failure at a hospital in Lufkin, TX. He was 76 (Houston Chronicle).

Wilson served in the House from '73-'96, earning the nickname of "Good Time Charlie" for his "reputation as a hard-drinking womanizer" (AP). "A loose cannon who stretched the boundaries of both U.S. foreign policy and gentlemanly behavior," Wilson's "penchant for parties got him into scrapes," not the least of which "involved allegations that he had used cocaine in 1980 while in a hot tub with two Las Vegas strippers."

But Wilson's "playboy persona masked his success at forging alliances with powerful members of Congress," and using "those alliances, and ties forged outside formal channels with operatives in the CIA, to send weapons to the Afghan resistance" (Wall Street Journal). Friends said he was "most proud of his role in defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan," and in "bringing a Veterans Administration clinic home to Lufkin" (Houston Chronicle).

Wilson's "frequent, much more sober-styled partner" in the House was the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), "and the fact that both have died now within days of each other punctuates the end of a major chapter for the House left behind" (Politico).

"The politically correct usually don't have much use for Charlie Wilsons," Dallas Morning News' McKenzie writes. "They can't get past their warts to see their achievements. But that's the way it is with colorful politicians. Texas doesn't produce so many of them any more, but Charlie Wilson was one proud exemplar of the breed."

"No doubt, the hard-drinking, skirt-chasing, covert-op-scheming Washington playboy is probably how most people will remember" him, but "those who knew him best," the "home folks" in TX-02, "remember a different Charlie." Longtime Lufkin Daily News editor Joe Murray: "For the rest of the world, he is the tall man on the big screen, portrayed by Tom Hanks as 'Good Time Charlie' ... For us, he's the guy we run into at the grocery store, the coffee shop or café, our good friend Charlie" (Houston Chronicle).

After the jump, a look at other public officials recalling their memories of Wilson.

Wharton Co. GOP Chair/ex-nurse Debra Medina (R) appeared on Glenn Beck's radio show earlier today, where she refused to definitively rule out the possibility that the U.S. gov't was behind the 9/11 attacks. From the transcript, found on Beck's website:

GLENN: Right. Here's then let me be more frank and ask you the question: Do you believe the government was any way involved with the bringing down of the World Trade Centers on 9/11?

MEDINA: I don't, I don't have all of the evidence there, Glenn. So I don't I'm not in a place, I have not been out publicly questioning that. I think some very good questions have been raised in that regard. There are some very good arguments, and I think the American people have not seen all of the evidence there. So I've not taken a position on that.

GLENN: I think the people of America might think that might be a yes.

MEDINA: Well

GLENN: Do you have advisors, do you have advisor

MEDINA: I'm not going to take a position.

GLENN: That's fine.

MEDINA: These questions have been raised and they are not answered.

In response, Gov. Rick Perry (R) issued a statement saying "today's comments were an insult to the thousands of Americans who lost loved ones on 9/11. … anyone who would suggest 9/11 is a conspiracy involving the Bush administration should be ashamed."

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) also responded in a statement, saying "I know exactly who was responsible for the horrific attacks on September 11th -- Al Qaeda terrorists who declared war on America. To suggest otherwise is an affront to the men and women who are sacrificing their lives to root out the terrorists in Afghanistan and around globe."

After the interview, Medina attempted to backtrack, issuing a statement saying "I have never been involved with the 9-11 truth movement, and there is no doubt in my mind that Muslim terrorists flew planes into those buildings on 9/11. I have not seen any evidence nor have I ever believed that our government was involved or directed those individuals in any way."

After turning over the original, "special" copy of the alleged "sex tape" featuring ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) and mistress Rielle Hunter to a judge in NC yesterday, ex-Edwards aide Andrew Young testified that he had another copy of the tape "elsewhere," and that he "showed the video to ABC News" in preparation for his 1/29 "20/20" interview. Young has said he's turned over another copy to federal investigators probing Edwards' camp finances.

The AP also reports that Young charged Elizabeth Edwards with threatening an "alienation of affection" lawsuit against him for "contributing to the downfall" of her marriage. Elizabeth's spokesperson declined to comment.

Edwards spokesperson Joyce Fitzpatrick told CNN, meanwhile, that the National Enquirer's latest Edwards report -- that he "proposed" to Hunter shortly before he publicly admitted to fathering her child, and Hunter "said yes" -- is "absolutely untrue."

The Enquirer also reported that Edwards has purchased a $3.5M "luxury beachfront home" for himself and Hunter, and "when his divorce his final, he'll buy her a diamond ring."

And Star magazine, which doesn't quite have the Enquirer's track record on Edwards to back it up, is reporting that "at the same time" Hunter was having an affair with Edwards, she was also having a "fling" with actor Jeff Goldblum, and "kept him guessing" about whether he was actually her daughter's father.

As he looks to cement his legacy in MN and move onto the nat'l stage, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) unveiled a 6-part Jobs Creation Bill in his final State of the State address today.

Pawlenty's address comes during hard times for his state. As he prepares to propose his final budget on 2/15, Pawlenty faces the daunting task of closing a $1.2B shortfall without raising taxes. That could mean deeper cuts to state services or one-time fixes that potentially push tough choices to Pawlenty's successor.

Calling his state "one of the most remarkable places the world has ever known," Pawlenty spoke in an upbeat tone today but nonetheless acknowledged the hard times that have befallen his state.

"The state of our state is challenged but our spirit is resilient," he said. The South St. Paul native also highlighted the challenges in his own modest background -- his mother died when he was in high school, and his father lost his job shortly after -- to put himself in the shoes of MNans living in "uncertainty and fear because of this historically awful economy."

Pawlenty railed against gov't spending and a tax system that "is not even close to competitive," and laid out a 6-part package of tax cuts and incentives which he dubbed the Jobs Creation Bill. Among other proposals, the package includes a 20% reduction in the corporate tax rate, a 20% exclusion from taxation for small businesses, a tax credit to provide incentives for investment in early-stage companies and a capital gains exemption for qualifying investments.

"The most important question before us is this: How do we best grow good, private sector jobs in Minnesota?" Pawlenty said. "The people who can best answer that question aren't in this room. They're not in Congress. They're not in the White House. They're not in bureaucracies. In fact, they're usually not in government or politics at all. The people who best know how to create jobs are the people who have actually done it."

"If government listens to them, this is what it'll hear loud and clear: Get out of our way. Leave us alone. Make it easier, not harder. The message is clear, so let's get to work," he said.

Pawlenty also highlighted the need to reform MN's budget process. "We should spend only what we have, not what we hope to have," he said. "That's a common sense approach understood at every kitchen table in Minnesota."

For all the GOP's excitement over ex-Sen. Dan Coats's (R-IN) candidacy, Coats has a tough slog ahead against Sen. Evan Bayh (D), according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal DailyKos website, surveyed 600 likely voters between Feb. 8-10 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Bayh was tested against Coats and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R).

General Election Matchups
             All / Dem / GOP / Ind
Bayh         55% / 82% / 26% / 64%
Coats        35  /  5  / 68  / 24

Bayh         53% / 80% / 25% / 61%
Hostettler   37  /  7  / 70  / 27

Bayh is the most popular politician in the state, aside from fellow Sen. Richard Lugar (R). Bayh is seen favorably by 61% of voters and unfavorably by just 33%. That's a better rating even than Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), the 2-term incumbent who has a 56%/34% fav/unfav rating.

Hostettler, who represented the state's 8th CD until he lost to Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) in '06, is better-known than Coats, who was last on the ballot in '92. Still, national GOPers are more optimistic about Coats' chances than Hostettler's, given Hostettler's historic problems raising money.

Dems anxious about the influx of corporate money in political campaigns have submitted a legislative fix they hope will get around a controversial SCOTUS ruling earlier this month.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen announced Thursday they will begin work on a legislative framework aimed at tightening limits on certain corporate expenditures and outright banning others after last month's Citizens United v. FEC ruling. The ruling dealt a serious blow to advocates of campaign finance reform.

"The Supreme Court's radical decision in the Citizens United case essentially equates corporations with individuals for the purposes of spending money in elections," Van Hollen said. "It opens the floodgates to big corporate money that can drown out the voices of American citizens."

The legislative framework would ban expenditures from corporations with a high percentage of foreign ownership; corporations that win federal contracts; and those that received TARP funds. Corporations that do spend money on political ads would be subject to disclosure both to the FEC and to shareholders, directly and through the SEC.

Those corporations would also have to disclose their involvement in the ad with so-called "stand by your ad" messages. Federal candidates already have to take responsibility for their own ads, identifying themselves and saying they approve the message.

The ruling was widely seen as a blow to party committees, which are likely to be vastly outspent by corporations. Parties are subject to contribution limits, while a corporation can write one check that dwarfs what the DCCC or the NRCC could take a month to raise. Schumer and Van Hollen want to ensure candidates and party committees pay the lowest unit rate for advertising, meaning a party or candidate dollar would go farther than a corporate dollar when advertising on TV.

Meanwhile, Schumer and Van Hollen want to see coordination rules tightened so that corporations cannot work with campaigns they favor. Supporters of Citizens United have said coordination rules will be the next front in their assault on campaign finance reform.

The FL switcheroo is now official: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-21) formally announced his retirement, and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-25), declared he'll run for his brother's seat.

L. Diaz-Balart said he'll practice law after he retires "with a sense of duty fulfilled, with infinite love and admiration for the most generous and noble nation in history, the United States of America."

Meanwhile, M. Diaz-Balart called the switch to his brother's CD "a natural move."

"In my years of public service at both the federal and state levels, I have had the privilege of representing most of the communities that make up Congressional District 21," said M. Diaz-Balart. "I have done so with devotion and dedication, effectively and with proven results."

For more on candidates considering bids for both FL-21 and FL-25, check out our earlier post.

After miserable House elections in '06 and '08 saw the GOP virtually disappear in the northeast, it was hard not to write the party's obituary in the region. No GOPers were left standing in New England, and just 3 remained in the 29-member NY delegation. It only worsened in '09, when the GOP failed to hold a rural sprawling CD in upstate NY, dropping its representation in the state to just 2 members.

But evidence suggests that the '10 wave that's building for the GOP could even manage to reach the untouchable Northeast.

And NY will be central to any resurgence. There, 5 Dems are being seriously contested by GOPers, and 2 more seats could potentially be in play.

As proof that the party isn't just tilting at windmills, 2 suburban NYC CDs have already provided evidence of movement toward the GOP. Earlier this week, the party picked up 2 state Assembly seats in special elections.

One was in Rep. John Hall's (D) Westchester Co.-based CD, where the GOPer took back a seat that was in Dem hands for 17 years. This was the second surprising GOP pickup in the last 4 months in the Dem-trending county; last Nov., the party also captured the county executive position.

And in Suffolk Co. -- the base of Rep. Tim Bishop's (D) seat -- a GOPer appears to have defeated a Dem for an Assembly seat in the CD's population center of Brookhaven.

While some may argue that these contests are too localized to have much meaning for Hall and Bishop, the fact that voters in these Dem-trending areas were willing to vote for a GOPer is very significant, and gives the party hope that it can compete in these suburban CDs. The results, particularly in Westchester Co., may also mean that the GOP's big issue -- taxes -- is beginning to again resonate with voters. The issue virtually disappeared in '08, and the party suffered for it.

Meanwhile, another special election -- Scott Brown's (R) SEN victory in MA -- has also given the GOP hope in the Bay State. And the biggest target looks to be Rep. Bill Delahunt (D), whose CD gave Brown 61% in the special. And today, the GOP provided fresh evidence of the Cape Cod Dem's vulnerability. A new poll, conducted Jan. 30-31 for ex-MA Treas. Joe Malone (R), shows him leading Delahunt, 37-34%. The survey of 300 LVs was conducted by McLaughlin & Assoc.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has seen her popularity drop to new lows even as she begins dipping her toe into political waters once again. That raises the question: Is the media paying too much attention to the ex-VP nominee?

Just 37% of Americans say they view Palin favorably, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll. That's her lowest rating ever, down 6 points from the Nov. poll. 55%, a record high, say they have an unfavorable view of Palin.

And only 26% say Palin is qualified to serve in the WH, whil 71% say she is not qualified to be pres.

The sinking poll numbers come despite Palin's successful book tour and widely-covered speeches at conservative events like last weekend's National Tea Party Convention.

And though she is obsessively talked about in DC circles, even most GOPers don't choose her as their favorite. A Gallup poll out today shows, when asked which candidates they would vote for, just more than 1 in 10 named Palin. Given a chance to choose any name, more GOP voters picked ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) than Palin.

On Tuesday, a poll out of AL -- where Palin would seem a natural fit, given her closeness with social conservatives -- showed her trailing ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) by 10 points.

Palin has a devoted following -- 1.3M Facebook fans, people willing to spend $100K to hear her speak and, though she likes to beat up the media, an instant ability to get coverage.

But she has no organization to speak of, save a spokesperson and a few employees of her PAC. She has offered no concrete policy ideas of her own, something candidate Romney offered in spades (even Huckabee endorsed the Fair Tax). And she has only barely emerged on the campaign trail, holding a rally with TX Gov. Rick Perry (R) last week.

Palin will run for pres. if "I believe that that is the right thing to do for our country and for the Palin family. Certainly, I would do so," she said in a Feb. 7 Fox News Sunday interview. But given the rate at which her poll numbers are sinking, and the number of Americans who have decided she is unfit to serve in the WH, her options may close faster than she hopes.

"I know that polls are fickle and heck, after this interview, Chris, we may see a plummeting in the poll numbers. Who knows," Palin joked to FNS host Chris Wallace. She was more right than she knew.

Is "Facebook fatigue" to blame for the big drop in Sarah Palin's approval ratings? Since becoming more active with her Internet attacks (and going on her book tour) the percentage of folks in the latest WaPo/ABC poll who see her as "qualified" to be POTUS has dropped 12 pts. More ominously for her, the drop-off was steepest among GOPers.

We're still not convinced Palin even makes a run in '12. But in the interim, will folks pony up $100K speaking fees for a non-WH contender (or for someone who's not even a serious potential contender)? If she wants to push those numbers (polls and fees) back up, she may want to consider another hiatus to San Diego and leave the laptop in Wasilla.

Scott Brown, are you watching this? Overexposure isn't always a good thing. Writing a "memoir" before you've even unpacked in DC doesn't seem like the best way to show that you're more than just a "pretty face." Sure, it worked for Obama. But other celeb sens -- like Hillary Clinton and Al Franken -- kept their heads down first and established their legislative creds. Perhaps he was serious when he told MA voters to view his election as a 3-year "trial" experiment. But if he wants to win a full term he can't afford to be seen as all barn coat and no cattle.

Rep. Bill Delahunt (D-MA) is the latest Dem to face a serious challenge, according to a new poll conducted for ex-Treas. Joe Malone (R).

The McLaughlin & Associates poll surveyed 300 likely voters Jan. 30-31 for a margin of error of +/- 5.7%. Delahunt and Malone were tested.

General Election Matchup
Malone        37
Delahunt      34

Voters see Delahunt in a positive light, with a 44%-33% fav/unfav rating, but that -- and other important numbers -- are below the 50% mark seen as crucial to incumbents seeking re-election. Still, Malone's team did not release a head-to-head matchup that includes leaners, suggesting Delahunt is in better shape than the initial matchup suggests.

Delahunt is seen as GOPers' top target in MA, where all 10 members of Congress are Dems. Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) won 61% of the vote in Delahunt's district, which stretches from the South Boston suburbs out to the Cape.

The NRCC wants its contributors to know it will spend the money necessary to defeat a member of Congress who backs liberal Dems like Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But in 271 cases, those letters went to residents of a district held by the newest member of the GOP.

In a fundraising letter, NRCC chair Pete Sessions lets donors in AL 05 know their "Democrat in Congress has been falling in line with Nancy Pelosi's destructive liberal agenda." The only problem is the NRCC is backing that incumbent, Rep. Parker Griffith (R).

"We're airing hard-hitting ads against your Democrat Member of Congress, and it's making an impact!" the letter reads.

Griffith, elected as a Dem in '08, switched his affiliation in Dec. He faces tough challenges in the GOP primary, but national GOPers are publicly helping his efforts. The fundraising letter puts a due date on contributions as Feb. 12, tomorrow.

"Airing TV ads in your part of Alabama gets expensive over time, and we need to make sure we can apply serious pressure on your Representative throughout the 2010 campaign season," Sessions wrote.

Madison Co. Commis. Mo Brooks (R), the recipient of one of the letters, had some fun with the NRCC's gaffe.

"It is ironic that, even today, the NRCC characterizes Parker Griffith as a liberal Democrat, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions' fundraising letter confirms what we all know -- Parker Griffith is a wolf in sheep's clothing, and sending him back to Washington as a Republican is like sending the fox to guard the henhouse," Brooks said in a statement. "If the NRCC will promise to use my contribution to correctly identify Parker Griffith's liberal voting record in TV ads, I'll gladly send them money."

Never mind that the NRCC has only aired ads against a very small number of Dems, and only in very small amounts, the party has not actually run any ads in Griffith's district. GOPers spent most of last year being quiet about Griffith's record as they secretly orchestrated his party switch.

"The chairman's letter was spot-on in the most important regard: North Alabamians have abandoned the Obama-Pelosi party in droves because its liberal agenda is dismissive of their values and hostile toward their interests," said NRCC spokesperson Andy Sere. "Tennessee Valley Democrats understand that a sea change has taken place, which is why all of the remotely-credible potential candidates for this seat have demurred; the next time a mailing goes out, we'll make sure our vendor gets the memo, too."

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) will announce later today he will not seek another term, CongressDaily reports this morning.

Diaz-Balart is the 18th House GOPer to step down, and one of the few who holds a seat that Dems could target. In '08, he defeated Dem Raul Martinez by 16 pointes, even though the DCCC spent money in his Miami-Dade and Broward Co. district.

The district is heavily Hispanic, thanks to Miami's large Cuban population. 73% of district residents call themselves Hispanic, while just 16% are white. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won a narrow 51%-49% victory in the seat.

First elected in '92, Diaz-Balart has had little trouble holding on to his seat. His brother, Mario, represents another heavily-Cuban part of Miami. CongressDaily reports that Mario Diaz-Balart will abandon his district to run in Lincoln's, which is seen as tilting more toward the GOP.

A Dem source tells Hotline OnCall that '08 nominee/Dept. of Energy appointee Joe Garcia (D) is considering the race if Mario does indeed leave his district, the 25th, to run in his brother's seat. Garcia had turned down a rematch earlier this year, but appears he may be tempted to enter the open seat.

Garcia gave Mario Diaz-Balart a real scare in '08, holding him to just 53% while spending nearly $1.8M in the contest.

A GOP source says several candidates are considering bids, including state Rep. David Rivera (R), who's currently running for the state Senate, state Sen. Alex Villalobos (R) and Sen. LeMieux aide Carlos Curbelo (R). State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla (R) also released a statement today saying he was considering a bid, but a GOP source doesn't believe he'll stick around.

UPDATE: Diaz de la Portilla confirmed to Hotline On Call that he is in fact seriously considering the race, and is meeting with party leaders in Tallahassee today -- and at a quarterly GOP meeting this weekend in Key West -- to discuss a bid. He added that two of his brothers hold various offices throughout the CD, and that name ID will help him in a potential bid.

Meanwhile, in the FL-21 race, ex-Miami Mayor Manny Diaz (D) is a potential candidate. A race against M. Diaz-Balart would not be completely new for Diaz, as he was reportedly considering a run against him in FL-25 earlier this year.

Lincoln Diaz-Balart is the 3rd GOPer, after Reps. Steve Buyer (R-IN) and Vern Ehlers (R-MI), to retire in the last 2 weeks. Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) said she will not seek re-election in her heavily-Dem district in L.A. yesterday.

In a race that has largely been has characterized by an expensive ad war between Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), 2 debates, and disagreements over transportation, immigration and education, Wharton Co. GOP Chair/ex-nurse Debra Medina (R) has quietly emerged as a key variable in how the race will shape up, as recent polling indicates she is inching closer to her competition.

Medina's camp says she saw a boost in fundraising after her performance in the 2 debates, and outside observers credit her performance with bolstering her poll numbers. "I think it is clearly those debates that have put her on the map," said Univ. of TX gov't professor Daron Shaw.

Attempting to tap into the Tea Party movement and aiming for frustrated voters, Medina has campaigned opposing property taxes and for protection of gun ownership, while casting herself as an alternative choice. "They are career politicians. The end. And people are fed up with that. ... Debra's the only one in this race that is different," said Medina mgr Penny Langford Freeman.

Some TX GOPers believe the tone of the Hutchison-Perry jockeying may be contributing to Medina's relative success. "They may or may not actually know who she is, but they know that she is a third option in a race that has gotten increasingly ugly over the last couple of months," said Michele Samuelson, an activist with the TX GOP Assembly.

Running to the right of Perry and Hutchison, Medina's natural tendency may be to draw in considerably conservative voters. But she may now also be drawing support from the more moderate Hutchison. Both Hutchison and Medina are running on platforms calling for new leadership in TX and casting Perry as a failed politician and ineffective gov. "She is making the case for change as someone who is kind of genuinely unknown ... that is a tougher case for Sen. Hutchison to make," said Shaw.

"We are seeing pulling support from both candidates and bringing in new voters," Freeman predicted.

As the race evolves, whether Medina peaked at the right time, or perhaps a tad early, remains to be seen. "I do think it is almost certain, just looking at the numbers, that it's going to be Gov. Perry versus one of the 2 women running. It's hard to say which one is going to come out on top," said Samuelson.

Medina's camp says they plan to be creative in the final stretch of the race as she attempts to sneak up on the 2 frontrunners. "We know we don't have the millions of dollars that they have," Freeman said. "We are going to stay focused on the conversation with the people while Kay and Rick are just beating each other up in the media."

Shaw said it will be tough to predict which direction Medina supporters will head towards, should she fail to garner enough votes to advance to a runoff.

"My sense is there are different sorts of people who are attracted to Medina," Shaw said. "Predicting how that vote breaks is going to be really difficult. ... It's not clear to me that there is a natural home for a large portion of her support; I think it will break down kind of evenly."

Last p.m., Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and his wife Teresa Heinz Kerry went on "LKL" to discuss her recent breast cancer diagnosis, but the continued John Edwards saga and MA politics were also on the mind.

Kerry, the man who is arguably most responsible for thrusting John Edwards onto the national scene, discussed what he makes of his ex-running mate's demise. "What can you make? I mean, honestly, it is a tragedy," Kerry said.

Kerry, on Edwards has shocked him: "Yes, and obviously disappointed. But I think -- you know, I think everybody just feels awful about it, in terms of their family, the relationship that everybody saw publically, the promise, the hope. You know, obviously, a capable career."

When asked if he's spoken to Edwards, Kerry said, "I have not. I mean, I called their home. I didn't know who would answer. I certainly was ready and willing and hope to say a word."

Kerry, on Elizabeth Edwards' bad press: "I've got to tell you, truthfully, Teresa and I have reached a stage where we-we don't read it, we don't watch it, don't pay any attention to it. Whether it is about us or someone else. Because we're focused on trying to get some serious things done. And we just don't have time for it."

Teresa Kerry added, "And it hurts ... to see that"

As for the shakeup in MA SEN politics, Kerry said on Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) victory, "Very understandable. Really very understandable. ... Honestly. If you were up in Massachusetts, as I was, and you could feel the anger and the frustration people have with Washington. With what is not happening here. The kind of thing I just talked about."

More Kerry: "Scott Brown tapped into that. He, you know, presented a refreshing alternative in that regard. And I think all of us need to respect that part of it. Now, I wouldn't over interpret what happened. It was still a close race. And certain things that happened campaign-wise, maybe it would have been a different outcome."

Good Thursday morning. The Hotline is taking a very reluctant snow day, but you can always find the latest political news here at On Call. Stay with us through Snowmaggedon and we'll bring the news to you.

Here's Thursday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter, and the impact they will have today on the political landscape:

SEN. BEN NELSON: During his re-election race, Nelson brought then-Sen. Obama to his state to campaign for him. But now that Obama is in the WH, Nelson has become the thorn Obama has to deal with on virtually every issue. Earlier this week, he voted against NRLB nominee Craig Becker, effectively shutting down his nomination, and now Nelson is opposing efforts to try terrorist suspects in civilian courts.

Nelson signed on to a letter being circulated by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), John McCain (R-AZ) and Jim Webb (D-VA) calling for military commissions rather than civilian trials. The WH has already backed away from holding trials in New York City, and as they search for other venues, the issue has given the GOP new license to paint Dems as soft on national security.

But even when the WH gets Nelson on their side, they get things wrong. Ask GOPers what convinced them Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) had a chance at winning and they'll point to a shift in poll numbers after the so-called "Cornhusker Kickback" deal became public.

Update: We incorrectly reported that Nelson only invited Obama to NE. He invited Sens. Tim Johnson (D-SD) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) too.

RNC CHAIR MICHAEL STEELE: The controversial chair will be targeted by DNC strategists later today for his comments a few days ago that $1M isn't a big salary. In an email to supporters later today, DNC chair Tim Kaine will call Steele's remarks "crazy talk," casting the GOP as out of touch with ordinary Americans.

Dems see the comment as a defining moment, according to DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan, and an opportunity to make the election a choice between Dems and GOPers, rather than just a referendum on Dems. That strategy is, as we've said, the Dems' only hope of avoiding major losses this year, and yet it is a difficult case to make. The letter-writing campaign Kaine and the DNC hope to produce is but a step in the marathon it will take to recast an election that many already see as a chance to vent frustration at the party in charge.