AL GOV: Byrne Leads Wide-Open GOP Field
Ex-state Community College chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) begins his race to replace Gov. Bob Riley (R) with a slim lead over the GOP field, but with nearly half of all primary voters undecided, it's anybody's contest, a new survey shows.
The poll, conducted by Baselice & Associates (R), surveyed 1,007 regis. GOP voters between Feb. 3-4 for a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. Byrne was tested alongside ex-AL Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R), real estate developer Tim James (R), ex-AL Economic Development dir. Bill Johnson (R), state Rep. Robert Bentley (R) and state Treas. Kay Ivey (R).
Primary Election Matchup Byrne 20% Moore 17 James 8 Bentley 4 Ivey 3 Johnson 2
Moore leads among those who describe themselves as "very conservative," with 24% to Byrne's 18%, while Byrne takes 25% of somewhat conservative voters and 19% of moderate GOPers, easily outpacing the rest of the field. Byrne leads in every media market except Huntsville-Decatur, where Moore takes almost a quarter of the vote, and in counties on the state's eastern border with GA, where Moore earns 1 in 5 voters.
But Brent Buchanan, a senior partner at Public Strategy Associates, and pollster Mike Baselice don't expect Moore to be able to sustain his performance.
"Roy Moore has a name I.D. lead, but he doesn't have the money to keep the momentum going," Buchanan said. "He has those core supporters who wouldn't vote if he wasn't on the ballot in a Republican primary." Baselice characterized Moore's support as "residual" from his previous bid for office.
Meanwhile, Buchanan said, Ivey is taking heat for her role in the state's pre-paid college tuition program, which lost money during recent turbid economic climate.
Buchanan's firm, a GOP consulting and lobbying operation, paid for the poll. They are not working for a candidate in the GOV primary.
After the jump, check out an early look at the state's WH '12 competition.
The poll shows once again that ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has work to do if she is to launch a WH bid. The AL WH primary in '08, held on Super Tuesday, when to ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) by a narrow margin over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), and its conservative electorate is one Palin will need if she's going to be a front-running contender.
An early test of WH support shows Palin trailing Huckabee, but beating ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R).
Primary Election Matchup Huckabee 33% Palin 23 Romney 12 Paul 5 Pawlenty 3
Huckabee scores big margins among both very conservative and somewhat conservative voters, while he and Palin tie at 20% each among moderates and liberals.
This company works for Byrne. Also, Alabama does not require someone to register with a party so a MAJORITY of the actual primary voters are not registered Republicans.
So this poll really is not worth anything.
Which company works for Byrne? Public Strategy Associates sure doesn't. The fact that there are so many undecideds in this poll show that it's pretty straight-up in my book.
I've done some additional examination inside the numbers here:
http://www.theworldaroundyou.com/2010/02/09/latest-poll-shows-byrne-leads-in-republican-primary-but-many-undecided/
Nice keep up the good work. where can we subscribe to the site’s newletter?
The article was well done. I have been seeking just this type of blog.I am appreciative for this information.
The above article was well done. I have been searching for just this type of article.I am grateful for this information.
The above site was well done. This article was very helpful.Thank you for this information.
Articles are a MUST for webmasters!
love the site it rocks i will defo be coming back for more, whenever i get the chance and you will be added to my bookmarks.
hey people just thought id drop a comment here i really liked the site and the info was great just what i needed, found you through google. god i love the net!!!!
great site loads of info, and it helped me a lot, so i thought i might aswell drop a comment i like your work here, and will be back for more. keep up the site