Ayotte Leads Hodes, But Hodes Has Lynch
Ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R) leads her Dem rival in the race for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's (R) seat, but her lead in the GOP primary is by no means assured, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted Feb. 1-3 by Research 2000 for the liberal DailyKos website, polled 600 LVs for a margin of error of +/- 4%. An oversample of 400 GOP voters had a margin of error of +/- 5%. Ayotte, businessman Bill Binnie (R) and atty/'96 GOV nominee Ovide Lamontagne were tested against Rep. Paul Hodes (D). In the GOV race, Gov. John Lynch (D) matched up against businessman Jack Kimball (R).
Primary Election Matchup GOV General Election Matchup Ayotte 36% Lynch 59% Lamontagne 27 Kimball 13 Binnie 4SEN General Election Matchups
Ayotte 46 Hodes 46%
Hodes 39 Lamontagne 36Hodes 45
Binnie 35
Ayotte holds a 47%-35% lead over Hodes among independent candidates and a big 55%-28% lead in the 1st CD. In Hodes' 2nd CD, he has a 50%-37% head start.
But Ayotte has a ways to go, and her opponents have made clear they won't be pushovers. Ayotte's 9-point lead over Lamontagne, who has sought to portray himself as the conservative alternative to the ex-AG, shows Lamontagne will play a role even if his early fundraising has been disappointing.
Meanwhile, Binnie started advertising late last month, and he has committed hundreds of thousands to his initial round of advertising. Already, he has a 31% fav/30% unfav rating, according to the poll. That could make him a factor down the line as he challenges Ayotte on fiscal conservative grounds, though he is admittedly more socially centrist than his rivals.
The good news for Hodes: Gov. Lynch is still popular. Lynch, who has to run every 2 years, has the best machine in the state, and it will be a valuable asset for Hodes as they both seek election this fall.
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