Ayotte Still Strongest GOPer Against Hodes
No state swung harder towards Dems than NH over the last 2 cycles. But now, that pendulum could be swinging the other way, according to a new survey.
The WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by UNH, tested 444 LVs between Jan. 27 and Feb. 3 for a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) was tested against ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), atty/'96 GOV nom. Ovide Lamontagne (R), businessman Jim Bender (R) and businessman Bill Binnie (R).
General Election Matchups (Previous poll conducted Oct. '09) Ayotte 41 (+1) Hodes 38 (+1) Hodes 33 (no change) Lamontagne 29 (+1)Hodes 36 Hodes 34
Bender 27 Binnie 30
Of the candidates, Ayotte has the highest favorable rating, at 38%-12%, while Hodes sports much higher unfavorable ratings, at 32%-27%. Hodes has a good 40%-24% fav rating in his own CD (UNH tends to have higher levels of undecided voters than other NH polls), but he has a net-negative 25%-31% rating in Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's (D) 1st CD.
More than 4 in 5 voters have no opinion of either Bender or Binnie. We keep expecting to see Binnie's numbers to rise, given that he's been on the air for several weeks. Instead, his fav/unfav stands at just 10%-4%.
Indie voters favor Hodes against all 4 GOP candidates. He sports a 31%-29% lead over Ayotte among indies, though she is doing much better among her base of GOPers (73%-3%) than Hodes is among his Dem base (62%-16%).
Meanwhile, voter angst that grips the nation has not spared NH. Sen. Judd Gregg (R) has seen his favorable rating drop 10 points in the last year, down to 54%, while Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D) rating is down 8 points, to 48%, over the same period.
The poll also tested several House matchups, though with margins of error of +/- 6.2% each, the results aren't the best possible snapshot of those races. All 4 GOPers running against Shea-Porter lead the incumbent, while ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) runs best against both potential Dem foes in Hodes's Nashua- and Concord-based districts.
Kelly Ayotte's achilles heel is an investigation asked for by a NH federal judge into allegations that Ayotte obstructed justice by refusing to handover witness statements in a longstanding state criminal prosecution that later became a federal civil rights suit. Ayotte dug herself into a deep hole when questioned by the Executive Council during her nomination hearings last March. She claimed that the case was dismissed on a technicality rather than admit that a state prosecutor fabricated witness statements. For more info:
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NH's Nifong Spells Problems for Ayotte