CPAC Vets See Tight Romney-Palin Race
The first skirmish in the war over the GOP WH nomination takes place this weekend among thousands of conservative activists, and veterans of previous straw polls see a tight battle between ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin developing at this week's Conservative Political Action Conference.
In an informal survey of GOP party leaders, strategists, activists and pundits representing backers of virtually every potential candidate in the field, a narrow plurality say Palin will win this weekend's straw poll. 22 of 48 GOPers surveyed chose Palin, while 20 chose Romney.
Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) attracted 2 votes each, while ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) earned a single vote. 1 voter was torn between Romney and Palin.
"CPAC attracts a young, philosophical-driven audience who love Palin's pure, unfiltered delivery of conservatism," said one Palin voter. Added another: "Newt may be smarter than everyone else, Romney may out-organize everyone else and [Rep. Ron] Paul may out-Libertarian everyone else, but Palin has that connection to the grassroots that cannot be replicated."
Romney, who has won the last 3 CPAC straw polls, has a crucial leg up on other contenders, according to many who think he will win a fourth. His team's ability to organize around the event in previous years is likely to give him some residual good will among attendees.
"Everyone knows how good his organization was in the lead-up to the 08 primaries, but not everyone realizes how sneaky-good that organization remains," said one respondent. Added another: "Mitt bears the high expectations of having won CPAC three years in a row. While this establishes him as the clear favorite of mainstream conservatives, it also keeps the pressure on for him to win every time he shows up."
Other contenders, including MS Gov. Haley Barbour, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, Paul, House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence and Sen. John Thune (R-SD) did not receive any votes among those asked who was expected to win the straw poll. Voters at CPAC will also have an option to write in a candidate or to say they remain undecided.
Those who keep an eye on CPAC say Romney and Palin are among the contenders with the most to prove, as well. Romney's earlier wins place a burden on his shoulders, while Palin's high-profile book tour and Fox News job set a high bar. And though she will not be attending the event, Palin still has to deal with expectations.
"The GOP's real struggle right now is whether it should represent authenticity or competence. Romney is the obvious competence candidate, but is that really what inspires the Tea Party era?" said one activist, who believes Romney has the most to prove. In all, 9 voters chose Romney for the dubious honor.
"She gambled big time -- and unecessarily so -- by skipping CPAC. If she still finishes strong the gamble will pay off," another respondent said. "If she struggles, it will speak volumes about the shallowness of her support among movement conservatives." 9 people tagged Palin with the most to prove mantle.
But more voters -- 13 -- said Pawlenty has to use the venue to brush up his conservative bona fides and introduce himself to the activist set that could help, or hurt, his future endeavors. Pawlenty has been the most active in building an organization and making his case to conservative groups, another factor which puts pressure on him to do well.
"He needs to prove that he's at least able to hang with the organizational big dog (Romney) and isn't dwarfed by the huge personalities (Palin and Huckabee)," wrote one strategist. Added a second: "Pawlenty probably has the best resume for a center-right tent pole around which a large coalition can be built, but he has to show that he can excite activists and inspire people to action. The nice-guy persona has to show some teeth and power."
Gingrich, according to 3 voters, has the most to prove, especially after he backed a moderate GOPer in the NY-23 House race. 5 said Huckabee has to find a way to move past a pardon he gave to a man who, late last year, shot and killed 4 police officers in WA. And 2 chose Santorum, whose nascent interest in a bid would be a long shot; over-performing would give him the chance to appear as a contender for social conservatives, rather than an also-ran.
Full results, along with a full list of our activists, party leaders, strategists and pundits after the jump. Check back later today for more comments from CPAC veterans explaining why they believe one candidate can, or has to, win.
Ballot orderHaley Barbour
Mitch Daniels
Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee
Sarah Palin
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mike Pence
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
John Thune
Other (write in)
Undecided
Who Will Win CPAC Straw Poll? (48 total votes) Palin 22 Romney 20 Gingrich 2 Pawlenty 2 Romney or Palin 1 Santorum 1
Who Has The Most To Prove At CPAC? (45 total votes) Pawlenty 13 Romney 9 Palin 8 Huckabee 5 Gingrich 3 Santorum 2 Anyone not named Palin 1 Tea Party candidates 1 Marco Rubio 1 Glenn Beck 1
Participants, in alphabetical order: Saul Anuzis, Chris Barron, Tom Bevan, Robert Bluey, Brent Buchanan, Ron Carey, Conn Carroll, Erin Casey, Tom Cole, Rob Collins, Alex Conant, Mike Connolly, Kellyanne Conway, Fergus Cullen, Brian Darling, Kyle Downey, Robert "Mike" Duncan, Eric Fehrnstrom, Mindy Finn, Joby Fortson, Trevor Francis, Rob Godfrey, Chris Hayes, Quin Hillyer, Bo Harmon, Patrick Hynes, Rich Killion, Moe Lane, Matt Lewis, Kevin Madden, Liz Mair, Robert Stacy McCain, Bill McGinley, Tim Miller, Ed Morrissey, Phil Musser, Sean Noble, Chris Perkins, Mark Reardon, Dan Riehl, Brian Rogers, Craig Shirley, Charles Spies, Michael Steel, Chris Taylor, Warren Tompkins, John Weaver, John Yob
Mitt Romney all the way!! He is the one that has the best chance of beating Obama and he is also the one that has the most experience and knowledge to get this country back on track!!
Sarah Palin is the only one with the chrisma and the fund raising ability to knock off Obama.
I'll be voting for Mitt!
Well why cant i have both? i say a Mitt-Palin Ticket all the way! or a Palin-Mitt ticket i am good ether way!
But i would prefer a Mitt Palin ticket just because Mitt has the Organization and skills needed to be president, Palin has them to but just not in spades like Mitt, and Palin has the personality and the grass roots stuff that will keep Romney grounded in real life and force him into reality when he starts going off on tangents. witch he tends to do when he is in gov office.
one thing i DON'T want to see is for them to Destroy each other and then to the next minute turn around and back the person they just attacked and ignore there own criticisms. i want them to be willing to criticize each other yes, this is true, but i don't want the primary's to be vicious like last time. that would be the last call for the Republican party.
Mitt is the best!
He's got my vote for 2012.
Mitt has to get a total personality transplant. Can’t connect and comes across as a bigger phony than Obama. Unelectable. Would never vote for this guy.
Sarah. I like her instincts, but she can’t overcome her past lack of learning and she can’t possibly get elected. I could vote for her though.
Pawlenty. Likable guy with good views. Tepid though. He can probably get the most votes while losing to Obama. And it is important to bring out the most votes.
Newt. The big idea guy of the party, but his past kills him. If you could put his brain into Sarah, now that would be a winner.
Haley. Love him but this country has a prejudice against southern Republicans.
Huckabee and Santorum. If the GOP has not learned the lesson that all this emphasis on social conservative and religious right stuff has killed the party, then things are hopeless. Might as well not run anyone.
The rest, I have no opinion yet. Basically, no candidate has emerged that can win in 2012.
I have one word for you Mitt fans....ROMNEYCARE. No thanks. Obama would wipe the floor with Mitt over that turn around.
Palin has all the media hype in the world, but Mitt is 10x more qualified to be president, so the poll should be interesting. That said, my top 4 candidates are:
1. Romney
2. Santorum
3. Palin
4. Paul
Let's move on from Palin before she destroys the party. We need Romney. If there was ever a man for the moment - it is Romney in 2012.
My list:
Romney
Daniels
Jindal
Jeb
Please . . . no Palin!
Romney=RINO.
Sarah rising, Obama failing.
Life is good.
It's no contest really, Sarah Palin is the hope and the shining bright star way up on the night sky.
What she represents is unique in US history, maybe going as far back as George Washington.
The times we live in are ripe for a new American Revolution; she understands it, she connects with its roots like no other, and she nurishes it with her pationate love for family, God and Country.
sarah is far too immature to ever be anywhere near the White House.
When even the far-right magazine "American Spectator" is telling sarah to "Get Over Yourself" and stop being a diva, you know things are looking pretty bad for her.
Memo to Palin: Get Over Yourself
By Quin Hillyer on 1.8.10
"Sarah Palin's decision not to attend CPAC (the Conservative Political Action Conference) is ridiculously petty."
More:
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/01/08/memo-to-palin-get-over-yoursel
Romney/Thune or Romney/Jindal in 2012!
I'd love a Mitt Romney/Nikki Haley ticket!
1) Huckabee
2) Rubio
3) Thune
4) Pence
I'm not a fan of Romney or Palin for their support of the bank bailouts with taxpayer money.
I wish I could be there to hear Mitt's speech. He is inspiring. Romney will be as good as Reagan.
Palin could not even bother to show up. It's not a paying gig.
I pray they deep six her at CPAC.
I thought Newt would be the favorite
By the time 2012 rolls in people will be begging Ron Paul to lead. I can tell by all the comments here that no one has done their homework. Amateur hour is over !! We need the Doctor. Go back and look at the 2008 debates.
Educate yourselves before you throw your support behind someone that you don't have a clue where they stand on the issues.
Romney/Palin is a winning team for WH 2012.
It's for them to recognise the fact and quietly work together towards it.
While Palin is working hard everyday to rally public opinion against Obama, Pelosi, Reid and thwart their ruinous policies, Romney has done little for the conservative cause except raise funds for himself. Romney is too concerned about burnishing his image to fight the Dems and their media allies, for fear that they might start slamming him too.
.
Sarah Palin is the only one in the group that has a personality. She is also the best natural political strategist to come along since Reagan; she gets the American people. She has been taking on the leftist by herself while the other candidates bury their heads in the sand waiting for Palin to point the way.
The nomination is hers if she wants it. If Mittens is the candidate I will not vote - he is a disaster like Dole/McCain/Bush1/Bush2
America voted "personality" in 2008 and look who it got us -- Obama!
America needs someone who has the will and economic sense to get America working again. We don't need another popularity contest with slogans like "Yes we can" and "You betcha."
We're on the brink, and it's the economy, stupid! Romney's the one.
Take it from a Massachusetts resident: Mitt Romney is a Socialist in RINO cloth. He DESTROYED first-class health care in Massachusetts with his buddy Ted Kennedy's Health Insurance Tax, a full-on socialist program that has ruined the quality and cost of health care in this state.
He also allowed GAY MARRIAGE and did not defer TO THE PEOPLE of Massachusetts because we would have struck that crap down.
Romney wants Republicans to nominate him but what has he done for the conservative cause? This is a critical time for Republicans. With Democrat control of the House, Senate and the White House, they are trying to ram their agenda down our throats. We have regular folks across the country confronting elected officials in town hall meetings. People are marching on Washington. Palin and others are speaking out and turning public opinion against the Dem's socialist agenda such as Nobamacare and Cap-and-Tax. We need to stall the effort of the far Left, who now control Washington, to turn America into a socialist state. Where is Romney? We need Romney to show some leadership in this critical time.
You people are a laugh riot.
"It's no contest really, Sarah Palin is the hope and the shining bright star way up on the night sky.
What she represents is unique in US history, maybe going as far back as George Washington."
Hahahaahahaahahaahahaahahaahahaahahaahaha.
F&*king retards*
*satire.
The poster above who goes by "Hi" is too dim to realize that Rahm Emanuel was actually scolding Libs, such as "Hi", when he said F**king Retards. So the joke is on Libs like you, 'Hi'!
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa!
Palin is an underrated administrator...she showed ability to govern from the center and build coalitions in Alaska across party lines..something Obama hasn;t been able to do. I personally think Palin is a diamond in the rough and 2012 may been too soon for her (especially after the media hatchet jobs she has endured over the last year)...but she has the most upside of any politician on the right/conservative since Reagan...no one else right now has the ceiling she has although a few (most notably Gingrich) are more experienced
John Thune is a man who can win -- and save our nation from the brink of destruction.
A few of you may be too hard on Gov. Palin for not attending CPAC...she didn't attend CPAC because she is home in Alaska supporting her husband, Todd in the Iron Dog Race that started today..give her a break!
Come on guys, Let Palin lead the pack. She has the populous movement and the grassroots behind her. Remember those millions that followed her in the last campaign? But McCain blew it. We need new faces,with vibrancy , people who can blow away the big govt of AliBama and his Forty Thieves. Only Palin can do that if she leads. Romney does not have the massive millions to carry the day. Imagine the first woman president of America. AliBama and his supporters dare not cross her path. Romney as Vice-President will be a steady source of advice and practicality for Sarah. Vote for Evita!
If Sarah runs, she will defeat Mitt in the primary assuming Huckabee does not run.
However, I would not be surprised if she were to pick Romney as her Veep to unite the eastern moderates to the mainstream conservatives, fiscon indies, and TPM.
That ticket would defeat Obama.
If Romney wins, the problem is that he is deemed as part of the rich establishment and is VERY uncomfortable with the average American. Sarah would not be as good a Veep because she is an alpha and has more balls than any other GOP national politician.
Our country does not need a businessman, but a courageous leader. Romney will shine in the cabinet or as the turnaround specialist who gets the job of selling off the businesses that the government owns.
The Dems are much more afraid of Sarah because she is conservative across the board, but prudent too much like Reagan.
It is gonna be 1980 all over again as the Palin/Romney ticket wins and Sarah with her indomitable courage confronts out of control federal spending and tries to stop its growth with hopefully a GOP congress.
FAIL
Ron Paul wins w/ 33%
Palin gets 7%. nice call.