Nervous Dems Go On Polling Spree
Dems facing a difficult political terrain next year began polling their districts early to survey a tumultuous political landscape, according to reports filed with the FEC.
At least 14 potentially vulnerable Dems commissioned polls in the last 3 months of '09, suggesting that even long-time incumbents are heeding DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen's warning that the '10 elections will be difficult affairs.
Most members who sought data already knew they were in trouble. Freshmen Reps. Alan Grayson (D-FL), Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL), Frank Kratovil (D-MD), Mike McMahon (D-NY) and Dina Titus (D-NV) all paid for polls over the last quarter.
Sophomores who faced difficult re-election bids, including Reps. Michael Arcuri (D-NY), Chris Carney (D-PA) and Bill Foster (D-IL) all commissioned their own polls. All 3 are members of the DCCC's Frontline Program for endangered incumbents. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) also paid for a survey.
As GOPers smell a wave that will benefit their electoral chances, the party has increasingly turned to entrenched Dems who would leave behind GOP-friendly turf if they were to retire. The NRCC has been pressuring Dems to retire rather than face a difficult election.
At least a few of those targets have gotten the message. Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), who hasn't gotten less than 60% of the vote since '82, put a poll in the field, as did entrenched Reps. Mike Ross (D-AR), Allan Boyd (D-FL), Earl Pomeroy (D-SD) and Sanford Bishop (D-GA).
But not all political decisions are made because of polls. Though GOPers have done their best to portray several Dem retirements as evidence that even Dems know it will be a bad year, none of the 6 Dems who have announced they will step down since Thanksgiving commissioned polls in the 4th quarter.
Some political professionals advising their clients have told them to hold off conducting polls until this 3-month period, when the health care debate calms down. Dems saw a demonstrable drop in support during the final half of the year, thanks to health care, and polling during such a turbulent time gives unnecessarily worrying, or inaccurate, results.
Indeed, to get an accurate picture of a district, members usually take their benchmark surveys at the beginning of the year, rather than at the end of the prior year.
Meanwhile, other Dems are polling furiously. The DNC spent more than $230K on polling in Dec. alone, including $165K on numbers provided by the Benenson Strategy Group. Pollster Joel Benenson was the lead numbers whiz on Pres. Obama's '08 campaign. Pollsters David Binder and Paul Harstad also earned more than $30K each on surveys last month..
funny how not one of the Dems even released their findings?
not looking good for any of them
No it's not funny; they're internal polls. Republicans do them too and certainly don't release the results, regardless of what they are. What an ignorant comment
William is correct. On both comments....
Wrong william! Campaigns release them all the time just like this week republican challenging Moran in VA did and just like Congressman Dent of PA did
Wrong, Adrianna! Campaigns sometimes release them, for strategic reasons only, not as a matter of course. It's unusual to release an internal poll regardless of the results.
Generally speaking, if you think you have good data, it's better to keep that close to your chest, keeping your opponent in the dark. Scott Brown is a case in point -- the GOPs had internal polls showing Brown quite close but didn't reveal them, and Coakley's campaign was too inept to conduct their own. One reason among many they got blindsided.
So much for civility!
Wrong again! So yourself just admiited all these dems are in a race because if not they would be trumpeting them
Martha"s internals showed close race she never released them and neither did brown
None of thes dems have huge leads this indicates
It's ok Adrianna, we all know you have no idea what the hell you're talking about.
But keep going, it's amusing.
Keep on living in democrat la la land; now nov will be funny night to watch you liberals cry
You democrats have zero clue how wrong and how you screwed up
Adrianna,
Leave them alone, we don't want to disturb their thoughts. This is the same bunch that interprets Scott Brown's victory in MA as a ringing *ENDORSEMENT* of the healthcare bill. Sometimes it is best to let sleeping dogs lie[sic].
Jeebus, there are a lot of touchy Demos posting comments on the blog post, aren't there?
mmm, i love the taste of wingnut in the morning. bring it conservative whackos living in jeezusland.
MarkO, no-one thought MA was an endorsement of the bill. everyone agrees the bill is not at all good, and you know WHY its horrendous? because the democratic party is a big tent. sadly good, popular ideas like the public option got shafted by those who are bought out by corporate interests, ie LIEberman. it was a huge sellout to the insurance industry, and people said "4u8k no"
and sadly due to the lack of choice for american voters (ie, two very average parties), people voted for the other guy. though what's the GOP doing while this country needs to be pulled back on track? just voting no on everything, regardless fo merit. the senate is a mess, nothing gets done, and the people are fed up.
so we have one party who led america to where it is, and doesn't seem to care about getting it back on track, and other party that doesn't have the balls to get it back on track.
Give the lefty whackos a break. Let them focus about whether the polls are released or not, rather than what the polls actually mean. It's good for the environment that they bury their heads in the sand. That way when those same heads explode in November, it won't be so messy.
Ausdem- You are absolutely incorrect in asserting GOP brought this financial ruin upon us, Dems have been in legislative power since '06! Barney Frank said alls well with Fannie & Freddie and Dodd failed to his job overseeing wall street. Also incorrect that GOP doesn't care about getting back on track- they are frozen out of legislative processes by sheer numbers and for you to contend that with 60 dems in the senate and a HUGE majority in house reps are in some way contributing to problem is counter intuitive. Your partisanship causes you to see things they way you do.
Wow!Those Dem's are touchy!
Conservatives will rule, we are taking back the country one seat at a time and there is nothing you can do to stop us. As a matter of fact the more you talk and do the more we gain...keep it up!
Ausdem ..
We know that you're not very bright, so I'll keep this simple. The Dim-o-RATs hold a sizable majority in the House. That's because mouth-breathers like you and the gullible who bought the "Hoax'nChains" nonsense were dumb enough to also give the keys to two branches of government to extreme Left-wing kooks like you. Through today, and at least a few more days, the Senate Dims hold a 60-seat advantage. There is NOTHING the Republicans can do but vote no. They hold no power in EITHER House. So, you can blame this all on the Republicans voting heir conscience, but hey STILL DON'T HAVE THE POWER TO STOP ANYTHING! The only reason your Statist Utopia hasn't been passed is because the extreme Leftist kooks that you adore are incompetent to pass something even when they hold massive majorities!
You're complaining that the Senate gets nothing done?! Well .. the Dims OWN the Senate! That's the problem! The Dim-o-RATs: the Party that pretty much OWNS this recession! Bwawney "Dere's No Pwobwems at Fannie and Fweddie" Fwank, Marxine "This Socialist" Waters, Chris "Countrywide" Dodd, Harry "We've Lost" Reid, and Nazi "Stretch" Pelousy.
I would suggest buying a case of Kleenex before November, loser!
Cute read DJ, but you really must stop sugar coating it!
I would like to have Grayson of Florida re-elected. He makes an ass of himself and the party he represents: The COmmies. CHris Matthews made him look so badly in his program. The guy is a liberal atheist Jew that loves money and then turns around to say that he represents the Poor!
As for Kosmas, she is gone. There is no money from Nascar to have her reelected and Brown and Brown are not so sure anymore about supporting Obama's lefties policies. Plus real estate has plummeted in New Smyrna and Volusia county, specially now that Obama eliminated the NASA Moon project. Places like southern volusia would be devasteted.Adios Susan!
Well said DJ & Robert!! So good to hear some common sense out there!
AdriaNNA:
kEEP IT UP YOU'RE DRIVING THE DHIMMIES CRAZY!
The moonbats are realizing they are cooked.
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