Rand Paul Begins Reserving Primary Ad Time
KY ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) has begun reserving air time in advance of the May 18 SEN primary, according to a source with access to the information.
Paul, the surprisingly strong challenger to establishment favorite Trey Grayson (R), has already reserved $332K of air time in the 6 weeks before the primary. Paul is concentrating on the Louisville and Lexington markets, which make up a combined 57% of the KY market.
Paul has reserved $113K in ads in Louisville, good for 1,187 gross rating points, and $86K in Lexington, adding another 1,156 GRPs. Smaller buys in Paduchah-Cape Girardeau and Bowling Green will cost the campaign about $50K each and account for around 800 GRPs each. Those markets make up about 10% of the state, but they are more GOP-friendly territory.
So far, Paul has outspent Grayson, KY's Sec/State, by a wide margin. Grayson launched his first ad this week, a coal-focused spot with $17K behind it in Lexington and Charleston-Huntington, coal country. Paul has already spent $291K on ads, and a campaign spokesperson said the campaign would match Grayson's Eastern KY buy this week.
Grayson has no plans to be swamped. At the end of the year, he had $1.4M in the bank -- $100K more than Paul and more than enough to run an aggressive paid media campaign. But Paul has the early start, and though it's been a long time since a reliable poll surveyed the contest, consensus among political professionals is that Paul has an early lead.
Meanwhile, as they fight over King Coal in Eastern KY, Paul's camp is doing something most campaigns avoid at all costs -- admitting it selectively quoted Grayson to make him look bad on coal issues.
When Grayson launched his first foray into the paid media world, Paul's campaign went so far as to point out how they could distort Grayson's words, calling it politics as usual. The following day, in their own ad, Paul's camp went ahead and did so, using the same quote they had suggested they could manipulate just hours beforehand.
"All's fair in love and war," Paul manager David Adams told WHAS-TV political reporter Joe Arnold.
After the jump, the amount of money, and time, each candidate has purchased in each KY market.
Note: "Pct" is the percent of the state a given market covers. "Spent" is the amount each candidate has already spent on ads. "Reserved" is how much time the campaigns have reserved before the May 18 primary.
Rand Paul
Pct / Spent / GRPs / Reserved / GRPs Louisville 31% / $112K / 1177 / $113K / 1187 Lexington 27 / $97K / 1296 / $87K / 1156 Cincinnati 10 / 0 / 0 / $5K / 62 Charles-Hunt 7 / $3K / 60 / $8K / 137 Evansville 7 / $24K / 393 / $15K / 249 Paduc-C.G. 6 / $31K / 521 / $50K / 838 Bowling Green 5 / $24K / 676 / $48K / 1475 Nash/Knox 5 / 0 / 0 / $7K / 115
Trey Grayson
Pct / Spent / GRPs Louisville 31% / 0 / 0 Lexington 27 / $13K / 178 Cincinnati 10 / 0 / 0 Charles-Hunt 7 / 0 / 66 Evansville 7 / 0 / 0 Paduc-C.G. 6 / 0 / 0 Bowling Green 5 / 0 / 0 Nash/Knox 5 / 0 / 0
Grayson has not reserved any time before the primary election, according to an ad sheet provided to Hotline OnCall.
A note on markets: "Charles-Hunt" is Charleston-Huntington. "Paduc-C.G." is Paduchah-Cape Girardeau. "Nash/Knox" is cable-only networks based in Nashville and Knoxville.
Re the video in the sidebar, who the hell is Funky-Cole Medina these guys are talking ever-so-briefly about in the Texas GOP primary for governor? How in the world do you two guys go from a very plain name like DEBRA to Funky-Cole?
Let me say this very slowly and clearly, the candidate's name is D e b r a M e d i n a and there is a real possibility she will overtake Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and become Governor Rick Parry's opponent in the runoff election.
I meant Governor Rick Perry, not Parry.
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