Thune Buzz Could Alter WH'12 Landscape

As GOP operatives dissect their developing WH'12 playing field, some believe Sen. John Thune (R-SD) could alter it significantly -- if he chooses to run.

Thune avoids talk of seeking national office and keeps his eyes trained on his re-election race this year, causing some to wonder if he's letting an opportunity pass him by as likely GOP presidential contenders start hiring and ramping up now.

In a brief interview at the NGA conference on Monday, SD Gov. Mike Rounds (R) said, "John Thune has been totally focused on South Dakota and nothing outside of that. He is all South Dakota all the time."

For those focused on the GOP's health after this midterm cycle, that's not exactly what they want to hear. Said ex-Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) of a potential Thune presidential candidacy, "I'm not sure John has the fire in the belly for something of that magnitude." But because Martinez called Thune "tremendous" within the same breath, some Democrats wondered if it was an attempt by Martinez to fire Thune up.

Indeed, the former senator and RNC chair added of Thune and his team, "They're really going to have to get going in the next couple of months or they're going to be left behind. By January, the flags go down and the race starts. They have to get beyond the pondering and make a move."

The filing deadline for candidates in SD is March 30, and until that time, political observers expect Thune to keep out of national political maneuvering for fear of drawing a SEN challenger. In a climate where all incumbents could be vulnerable, though, it might be even later before Thune starts popping up in a greater national context; the filing deadline for independents is on June 8, primary day in SD.

But Thune doesn't have a challenger of any kind on the horizon yet, and Dems in the state and in DC say there are still no plans to field one.

One name that has been floated is state Sen. Nancy Turbak Berry, but she said in a phone interview Wednesday, "I have no interest in the U.S. Senate race whatsoever." She doubted that the Dem bench in the state will come up with anything and she, along with other state Dems, warned that the state party organization isn't very strong there.

Two Tea Party organizers, Mike Keolker and Shelli Hodgkins, say no one within the movement has ever discussed a challenge to Thune. "I haven't heard a thing," Hodgkins said.

"He doesn't come up," Keolker said. "If you want to talk about Sen. [Tim] Johnson or Rep. [Stephanie] Herseth Sandlin," the Dems in the state delegation, "that's another matter, but no one mentions Sen. Thune, and that should indicate that it would be a good thing for Sen. Thune."

While Thune's political focus is on re-election, his policy focus could suggest something bigger. He and another WH'12 dark horse, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), have been showing off their legislative and executive skills, respectively, rather than telegraphing any desire to run via campaign building exercises.

Thune has been very involved with legislation to reorient TARP funding -- an extremely important and current matter to voters. And in a wide-ranging interview with National Journal on Tuesday, Daniels said that the way the GOP orients for the future is more important than the names involved, and he wants to be part of the conversation about what that is.

Daniels reiterated that he is not very interested in running, but he does want observers to watch what he's doing for his state. On the other end of the spectrum, top GOP contenders like ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) all have been clear in scores of interviews that they are taking a good look at the race.

In between is Thune, who maintains that he is keeping his head in SD and focused only on re-election for the time being.